Pacific North American Pattern Research Articles

Deciphering Mean Flow-Eddy Interaction in Pacific-North American Teleconnection Linked to Storm Tracks at Subseasonal Timescale

Abstract The features of large-scale atmospheric circulations, storm tracks, and the mean flow-eddy interaction during winter Pacific-North American (PNA) events are investigated using National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis data at subseasonal timescale from 1979 to 2022. The day-to-day variations of storm-track activity and stream function reveal that storm-track activity varies along the evolution of mean flow. To better understand storm track variability with the mean flow-eddy interaction, further exploration is made by analyzing local energy energetics. The changes in horizontal and vertical baroclinic energy conversions from background flow correspond to the storm track anomalies over the North Pacific, indicating that the anomalies in storm tracks are due to the anomalous mean flow associated with PNA patterns impacting energy conversion through mean flow-eddy interaction. Eddy feedback driven by vorticity and heat fluxes is analyzed. This provides a concrete illustration of how eddy feedback serves as a positive factor for the upper-tropospheric circulation anomalies associated with the PNA pattern.

Analyzing the impact of ocean-atmosphere teleconnections on rainfall variability in the Brazilian Legal Amazon via the Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI)

Drought events are mainly associated with alterations in ocean-atmosphere patterns, leading to abnormally dry conditions due to reduced precipitation. This study aims to enhance the understanding of the spatiotemporal relationship of atmospheric teleconnections associated with droughts in the Brazilian Legal Amazon (BLA), based on the Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI), utilizing 1675 precipitation grid points from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) for the period 1970–2019. The results revealed that Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis of RAI demonstrated significant climatic variability, with 15 components explaining 68% of the total variance and identifying two homogeneous regions closely aligning with observed conditions. Atmospheric teleconnections showed substantial variation in spatial and temporal extent in extreme drought events in the years 2005, 2010, 2015–2016, and 2019 in the BLA. The findings indicate that on an interannual scale, the dominant teleconnections in regions R1 and R2 are the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Tropical North Atlantic (TNA), Pacific North American (PNA) pattern, and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). In contrast, on a decadal scale, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), and Tropical South Atlantic (TSA) prevail. Our results provide valuable insights into the nature of drought events in the Amazon, including strategies for the early detection of their intensity and affected areas, demonstrating that atmospheric teleconnections significantly influence both interannual and decadal periods. These influences are concentrated on specific temporal scales and during particular years. Conclusively, this study underscores the critical role of atmospheric teleconnections in shaping drought dynamics in the BLA, offering a foundation for predictive models and mitigation strategies to combat climate-induced challenges in the region.

Mid-Pliocene not analogous to high-CO2 climate when considering Northern Hemisphere winter variability

Abstract. In this study, we address the question of whether the mid-Pliocene climate can act as an analogue for a future warm climate with elevated CO2 concentrations, specifically regarding Northern Hemisphere winter variability. We use a set of sensitivity simulations with the global coupled climate model CESM1.0.5 (CCSM4-Utr), which is part of the PlioMIP2 model ensemble, to separate the response to a CO2 doubling and to mid-Pliocene boundary conditions other than CO2. In the CO2 doubling simulation, the Aleutian low deepens, and the Pacific–North American pattern (PNA) strengthens. In response to the mid-Pliocene boundary conditions, sea-level pressure variance decreases over the North Pacific, the PNA becomes weaker and the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) becomes the dominant mode of variability. The mid-Pliocene simulation shows a weak North Pacific jet stream that is less variable in intensity but has a high level of variation in jet latitude, consistent with a dominant NPO and indicating that North Pacific atmospheric dynamics become more North Atlantic-like. We demonstrate that the weakening of the Aleutian low, and subsequent relative dominance of the NPO over the PNA, is related to shifts in tropical Pacific convection. Variability in the North Atlantic shows little variation between all simulations. The opposite response in North Pacific winter variability to elevated CO2 or mid-Pliocene boundary conditions demonstrates that the mid-Pliocene climate cannot serve as a future analogue in this regard.

Evolving winter atmospheric teleconnection patterns and their potential triggers across western North America

We present a comprehensive analysis diagnosing the primary factors driving the observed changes in major atmospheric teleconnection patterns in the Northern Hemisphere winter, including the Pacific North American pattern (PNA), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and North American winter dipole (NAWD), with particular focus on their roles in shaping anomalous weather across North America. Our investigation reveals a consistent influence of the NAWD over seven decades, contrasting with fluctuating impacts from PNA and minor impacts from NAO. In particular, an emergent negative correlation between the NAWD and PNA, signaling a shifted phase of teleconnection patterns, is identified. Such a relationship change is traced to enhanced upper-level ridges across western North America, reflecting a reinforced winter stationary wave. Through attribution analysis, we identify greenhouse gas emissions as a probable driver for the northward drift of the Asia-Pacific jet core, which, aided by orographic lifting over the Alaskan Range, subsequently amplifies the winter stationary wave across western North America. This work emphasizes the pronounced effect of human-induced global warming on the structure and teleconnection of large-scale atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere winter, providing vital perspectives on the dynamics of current climate trends.

A distinct and reproducible teleconnection pattern over North America during extreme El Niño events

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections are an important predictability source for extratropical seasonal climate forecasts. Previous studies suggest that the ENSO teleconnection pattern depends on the ENSO phase (El Niño vs. La Niña) and/or Sea Surface Temperature (SST) pattern (central Pacific vs. eastern Pacific El Niño events). Observations and ensemble simulations with the CNRM-CM6.1 atmospheric general circulation model indicate that only extreme El Niño events (e.g. 1982–1983, 1997–1998, 2015–2016) display a statistically significant eastward shift relative to the well-known Pacific-North American teleconnection pattern that occurs during both central and eastern Pacific moderate El Niño or during La Niña. This specific teleconnection pattern emerges when equatorial SST anomalies are both eastward-shifted and sufficiently large to exceed the deep atmospheric convection threshold over most of the eastern Pacific, resulting in a basin-wide reorganization of tropospheric heat sources. It yields> 0.5 std wet conditions over Western United States (74% likelihood) as well as> 0.5 std warm anomalies over Canada and the Northern United States (71% likelihood), with more consistency across events and ensemble members than for any other El Niño or La Niña type. These findings hold important implications for the seasonal forecasting of El Niño’s impacts on the North American climate.

Seasonal predictability of the dominant surface ozone pattern over China linked to sea surface temperature

Mitigation surface ozone pollution becomes increasingly pivotal in improving China’s air quality. However, the impact of global sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) on the long-term predictability of China’s surface ozone remains challenging. In this study, we employ eigen techniques to effectively characterize dominant surface ozone patterns over China, and establish cross-correlations between the dominant patterns and global SSTA time series. Our findings reveal that China’s summer ozone pollution is strongly associated with crucial SSTA clusters linked to atmospheric circulations, i.e., the West Pacific Subtropical High and the Pacific-North American teleconnection pattern. For winter, ozone pollution is attributed to SSTA clusters related to the Southern Oscillation, the Madden-Julian Oscillation and others. We propose a multivariate regression model capable of predicting surface ozone patterns with a lead time of at least 3 months. Evaluation of our model using a testing dataset yields an R-value of around 0.5 between predicted and observed data, surpassing statistical significance threshold. This suggests the viability and potential applicability of our predictive model in surface ozone forecasting and mitigation strategies in China.

Does the 11-year solar cycle affect lake and river ice phenology?

Records of ice-on and ice-off dates are available for lakes and rivers across the Northern Hemisphere spanning decades and in some cases centuries. This data provides an opportunity to investigate the climatic processes that may control ice phenology. Previous studies have reported a trend toward shorter ice-covered seasons with global warming, as well as links between ice phenology and several modes of natural climate variability such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Pacific-North American Pattern, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. The 11-year sunspot cycle has also been proposed as a driver of ice phenology, which is somewhat surprising given that this cycle’s strongest impacts are in the stratosphere. In this study, we use a large data set of lakes and rivers across the Northern Hemisphere to test this potential link. We find little or no connection between the sunspot cycle and either ice-on or ice-off dates. We conclude that while many well-known climate cycles do impact ice phenology, we are able to rule out any strong impact of the solar cycle.

Holocene hydroclimate stability in three lake sediment records from the southeastern United States

Many Holocene paleoclimate records from the southeastern United States (SE US) have limited chronological constraints and/or low sedimentation rates and consequently low resolution; this presents challenges in discerning the relative importance of synoptic–scale drivers of past hydroclimate. In this study we summarize three lake sediment records that are uniquely located to test hypotheses regarding the importance of the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over the last 5000 years. At Pigeon Marsh, Buck Pond, and Halls Pond, we used sedimentological (radiocarbon dating of transect cores), physical (grain size), geochemical (carbon and nitrogen ratios and isotopes), and biological (palynomorphs) proxies to reconstruct lake level and lake environment. Moderate lake and environmental changes occur around 2000 cal yr BP at Buck and Halls Pond, which is regionally consistent with other paleorecords and may suggest that the NAO was an important control. However, our results generally indicate fairly stable hydroclimate conditions up until historical European settlement when land clearance caused vegetational and lake hydrologic balance changes that were unprecedented in both magnitude and rate compared to the middle/late Holocene.

Intensity change and zonal and meridional movements of the Aleutian Low and their associated broad-scale atmospheric-oceanic characteristics

The changes in the intensity and position of the Aleutian Low (AL) exert significant effects on the ocean-land-atmosphere interactive processes and climate over East Asia, the North Pacific, and North America. In this study, the interannual variations of the AL intensity, meridional shift, and zonal shift, as well as their associated dynamical processes are investigated. The results show that the intensity, meridional shift, and zonal shift of the AL are well characterized by the three leading EOF modes of sea level pressure over the North Pacific, and are strongly correlated with the Pacific-North American pattern, the West Pacific pattern, and the Tropical/Northern Hemisphere pattern, respectively. The intensity variation of the winter AL seems to be closely associated with the ENSO-related atmosphere-ocean processes in the previous autumn, whereas the meridional shift is not associated any significant signal in the previous months, signifying a relatively higher predictability of the former. Besides, the eastward and westward movements of the AL show asymmetric features, attributed possibly to their asymmetric relationships with ENSO.

Seasonal Dependence of the Pacific–North American Teleconnection Associated with ENSO and Its Interaction with the Annual Cycle

Abstract The Pacific–North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern is one of the prominent atmospheric circulation modes in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere, and its seasonal to interannual predictability is suggested to originate from El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Intriguingly, the PNA teleconnection pattern exhibits variance at near-annual frequencies, which is related to a rapid phase reversal of the PNA pattern during ENSO years, whereas the ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific are evolving much slower in time. This distinct seasonal feature of the PNA pattern can be explained by an amplitude modulation of the interannual ENSO signal by the annual cycle (i.e., the ENSO combination mode). The ENSO-related seasonal phase transition of the PNA pattern is reproduced well in an atmospheric general circulation model when both the background SST annual cycle and ENSO SST anomalies are prescribed. In contrast, this characteristic seasonal evolution of the PNA pattern is absent when the tropical Pacific background SST annual cycle is not considered in the modeling experiments. The background SST annual cycle in the tropical Pacific modulates the ENSO-associated tropical Pacific convection response, leading to a rapid enhancement of convection anomalies in winter. The enhanced convection results in a fast establishment of the large-scale PNA teleconnection during ENSO years. The dynamics of this ENSO–annual cycle interaction fills an important gap in our understanding of the seasonally modulated PNA teleconnection pattern during ENSO years.

Influence of the Tibetan Plateau on the coupling of the North Pacific–North Atlantic pressure systems

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) exerts a profound influence on global climate change. In the boreal winter, the TP has a notable impact on the Asian winter monsoon. Nevertheless, the relationship between the TP and the climate of the remote Arctic region is not yet fully understood. The North Pacific and North Atlantic pressure systems exhibit dynamic linkages through the Aleutian Low–Icelandic Low seesaw in the boreal winter season. However, the extent to which large mountains, such as those in the TP, influence this coupling remains unclear. In this study, we conducted an orographically sensitive experiment using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model Version 6. The results obtained from the model indicate that the TP influences Arctic pressure anomalies specifically via the modulation of the Aleutian Low–Icelandic Low seesaw. Specifically, the TP favors the eastward extension of a pattern resembling the Pacific–North American pattern, achieved by enhancing the horizontally propagating wave trains originating from the eastern Pacific, thus establishing a clear Aleutian Low–Icelandic Low seesaw. In addition, the TP was a critical factor in the stratosphere–troposphere coupling as it facilitated the shift of the stratospheric polar vortex towards Eurasia in a poleward direction, potentially leading to the extension of the wave train emanating from the North Pacific across North America. These results suggest that the TP significantly contributes to Arctic climate variability. This influence is observed via the TP-mediated modulation of the teleconnection between the North Pacific and North Atlantic regions and stratosphere–troposphere coupling.

The Role of Nonlinear Energy Advection in Forming Asymmetric Structure of ENSO Teleconnections Over the North Pacific and North America

AbstractIn boreal winter, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)‐induced Pacific‐North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern is farther westward during La Niña relative to that in El Niño, causing discernible distinct climate implications. However, there has been a lack of consensus regarding the underlying mechanism driving this asymmetric structure. This study highlights the contribution of nonlinear kinetic energy advection (nKA) to this asymmetry. The zonally symmetric responses to ENSO, specifically the anomalies in zonal mean zonal flow, generate opposing nKA patterns by advecting anomalous eddy kinetic energy in the North Pacific, which leads to the shift of the PNA teleconnection pattern. In addition to nKA, transient eddy activities responded to changes of baroclinicity help maintain the asymmetry through a feedback effect. These findings underscore the importance of considering extratropical factors, such as nonlinear energy processes and synoptic‐scale transient eddies, in understanding the mechanism responsible for the asymmetric structure of the PNA teleconnection pattern.

Interannual Variability of the Mass-Weighted Isentropic Zonal Mean Meridional Circulation in the Northern Hemisphere Winter

Abstract The atmospheric general circulation diagnosed by the mass-weighted isentropic zonal mean exhibits an extratropical direct (ETD) circulation driven by eddy momentum transport. We investigated regional atmospheric modulations associated with the year-to-year variability of ETD circulation in boreal winter using a reanalysis dataset. Composite analyses showed that the interannual variability of ETD circulation accompanies a seesaw-like variation between the Aleutian low (AL) and Icelandic low (IL), which coincides with the Pacific–North American teleconnection pattern and North Atlantic dipole anomaly. A diagnosis using isentropic airmass fluxes representing the geographical Lagrangian mean motion indicated that the significant intensification of upper-tropospheric poleward warm airflow over the eastern North Pacific is responsible for the enhanced ETD circulation, together with the intensified equatorward lower cold airflow over East Asia and eastern North America. The resulting enhanced upward propagation of the stationary planetary waves corresponds to the intensification of the divergence of the Eliassen–Palm flux, which explains the modulated ETD circulation in view of the balance between the Coriolis force and eddy momentum flux convergence. These results suggest that the AL–IL seesaw promotes variations in the global general circulation, and the anomalous ETD circulation interacts with several teleconnection patterns involving the modulation of planetary waves through anomalous meridional heat transport by the basinwide-scale eddies.

Comparative Analysis for Atmospheric Oscillations

In recent decades, studies on atmospheric circulations indicate that those patterns have influences on meteorological variables. This paper investigates the comparative statistical analysis of atmospheric oscillations with climatological elements. Based on analysis of the climate data obtained from observed values of meteorological station in Antalya, it was pointed that atmospheric elements such as meteorological variables were associated with atmospheric oscillations such as North Atlantic Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation, Antarctic Oscillation and Pacific-North American pattern. Spearman’s rho and Kendall’s tau statistics were employed to reveal the relations between atmospheric variables and atmospheric oscillations as statistically significant. Both coefficients were compared in interpreting the direction and strength of the relationships. It was seen that Spearman’s rho coefficients presented more suitable values generally.

Role of the Aleutian Low in Modulating the Connection between the Moderate El Niño and the Following Spring North Tropical Atlantic SST Anomalies

Abstract El Niño events are likely to be followed by significant positive sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the north tropical Atlantic (NTA). We find that this is not always true for El Niño with moderate intensity. Nearly half of the moderate El Niño cases are followed by the strong NTA SSTAs, but others are followed by the weak NTA SSTAs, indicating the uncertainty in the connection between the moderate El Niño and the NTA. The differences in the El Niño–related NTA SSTAs are due to the different extratropical teleconnection between El Niño and the NTA, manifesting as a Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern. Further analysis suggests that the deepened Aleutian low (AL) induces the negative North Pacific SSTA, which is associated with a wave train propagating eastward, and, modulates the El Niño–generated PNA pattern. Therefore, El Niños that are accompanied by the strong AL induce a strong PNA pattern that, in turn, leads to the strong NTA SSTAs. The strength of the AL coinciding with El Niño plays a crucial role in modulating the connection between the moderate El Niño and the NTA SSTAs. This observational evidence about the uncertainty in the El Niño–NTA connection and the role of the AL in modulating this connection is further supported by the model simulations that participated in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). These results indicate that the combined effects of El Niño and the AL must be considered to fully understand the NTA SSTA variability. Significance Statement El Niño events often lead to significant warming over the north tropical Atlantic (NTA). We find that the strong El Niño almost always is accompanied by the strong NTA sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs), whereas the moderate El Niño can be followed by either the strong or weak NTA SSTAs, indicating the uncertainty in the connection between the moderate El Niño and the NTA SSTAs. Further analysis demonstrates that El Niño, which is accompanied by the strong (weak) Aleutian low leads to the strong (weak) NTA SSTAs, suggesting that the role of the Aleutian low must be considered to fully understand the El Niño–NTA connection.

Revisiting the Influence of ENSO on the Arctic Stratosphere in CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models

The Arctic stratospheric response to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is assessed using the historical simulations provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6 (CMIP5 and CMIP6, respectively). CMIP6 models can well reproduce the ENSO signals in the Arctic stratosphere and have an ameliorated performance compared to CMIP5 models. Specifically, El Niño is associated with an intensified Pacific–North American pattern that leads to a considerable enhancement of planetary wavenumber 1 but a small reduction of planetary wavenumber 2, and thus, a warm and weakened stratospheric polar vortex. The case for La Niña is nearly the opposite, with a cool and strengthened stratospheric polar vortex. In CMIP6, the ENSO-related stratospheric signal matures in the February–March–April season and increases with ENSO magnitude, regardless of the ENSO phase. However, the stratospheric response to strong El Niño (La Niña) is weaker (stronger) than that which should be achieved if the response changes linearly with the amplitude of El Niño (La Niña). An asymmetric time evolution of stratospheric signals exists between strong El Niño and La Niña events. The stratospheric response caused by strong El Niño is weaker from late winter to early spring but stronger in middle and late spring compared to that caused by strong La Niña. By contrast, the Arctic stratospheric signal in moderate El Niño events is larger than that in moderate La Niña. Compared to ENSO-neutral winters, stratospheric sudden warming occurs more (less) frequently in El Niño (La Niña), as simulated by CMIP6 high-top models.

Winter cold extremes over the eastern North America: Pacific origins of interannual-to-decadal variability

Winter cold extreme events have been observed to frequently take place over North America mainly over its east side, which show significant interannual and decadal variability and cause huge economic losses in the United States. However, it is unclear what leads to the interannual-decadal variability of winter cold extremes over the eastern North America. In this study, we indicate that the decadal variability of winter cold extremes over the eastern North America, whose period is shortened in the recent decades, is mainly tied to Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), whereas their interannual variability is mainly regulated by Victoria mode (VM). A positive PDO promotes cold extremes in the lower latitudes of the eastern North America mainly owing to the presence of positive Pacific North American (PNA+) patterns, whereas a positive VM is favorable for intense cold extremes in the higher latitudes of the eastern North America mainly due to the occurrence of negative North Pacific oscillation (NPO−) patterns. Thus, the positive VM and PDO combine to significantly contribute to the interannual-to-decadal variability of winter cold extremes over the eastern North America through changes in the winter NPO− and PNA+ patterns due to the variations of meridional background potential vorticity gradient and basic zonal winds. These new findings can help us understand what are the origins of the interannual-decadal variability of winter cold extremes over the eastern North America.

Effects of Wave-Mean Flow Interaction on the Multi-Time-Scale Variability of the AO Indices: A Case Study of Winters 2007/08 and 2009/10

Wave-mean flow interaction is usually regarded as accounting for the origin of the Arctic Oscillation/Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode (AO/NAM). It is inferred that the combination of the local wave-mean flow interactions at the AO/NAM’s three regional centers of action on three important time scales contributes to the main behavior of the AO/NAM index. To discuss the variations of the AO/NAM indices on the three prominent time scales, we take the 2007/08 and 2009/10 winters as two comparative examples to analyze the local wave-mean flow interactions at the AO/NAM’s three centers. The following three facets are identified: (1) Synoptic-scale wave breakings in the North Atlantic can explain the variances of the AO/NAM index on a time scale of 10–20 days. In the 2007/08 winter, there were both cyclonic and anticyclonic synoptic wave breakings, while in the 2009/10 winter, cyclonic synoptic wave breaking was dominant, and the flow characteristics were strikingly similar to the blocking. (2) In the 2007/08 and 2009/10 winters, the signals of the AO/NAM indices on the time scale of 30–60 days are mainly from the interactions between the upward propagating quasi-stationary waves and the polar vortex in the stratosphere. (3) This work also demonstrates that the AO/NAM is linked to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) by the Pacific–North American pattern (PNA) on the winter mean time scale. In the 2007/08 (2009/10) winter, La Niña (El Niño) forced the Pacific jet to shift poleward (equatorward), in favor of weakening (enhancing) the polar waveguide; thus, the polar vortex became stronger (weaker), corresponding to the positive (negative) winter mean AO/NAM index.

Amplified Asymmetric Impact of ENSO Events on the Wintertime Pacific‐North American Teleconnection Pattern

AbstractEl Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as the strongest tropical interannual signature has the most prominent impact on wintertime Pacific‐North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern. ENSO exhibits an increasing asymmetry in recent decades. This study quantifies its extratropical asymmetric impact on the amplitude of the PNA pattern, using a normalized asymmetry index defined as a ratio of asymmetric versus symmetric anomalies for El Niño and La Niña. Relative to the ENSO asymmetry, the extratropical asymmetric impact is largely amplified especially downstream by up to 82%. Such an amplification is attributed to noticeable increases, 83.6% (68.9%), in asymmetry of Rossby wave source (RWS) anomalies over two key regions of North Pacific, in which anomalous divergence induced by nonlinear condensational heating feedback and anomalous synoptic eddy forcing are two major contributors. The former contributes 39.3% (47.5%) over the western (eastern) North Pacific through increasing asymmetric RWS anomalies, while the latter contributes 29.5% (21.3%) through decreasing symmetric RWS anomalies.

Spatial changes in two major modes of atmospheric circulation variability during the 20th century

This study presents the time development of two major modes of atmospheric circulation variability in the Northern Hemisphere, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Pacific/North American Pattern (PNA), during the 20th century. We employ 500 hPa winter monthly means of the long-term reanalysis 20CR, which cover the 1871−2011 period. We use a moving Principal Component Analysis calculated for 40-year periods with a one-year step. The spatial structure of NAO is well developed and stable during the whole 20th century using the ensemble mean. However, substantial changes in PNA pattern occur during the late 19th century. Its centres are weaker and smaller, except the centre over the northern Pacific Ocean, which is stronger and larger in the early period. However, these changes are not visible when using ensemble members. Therefore, we suggest that these shifts do not reflect real changes in the atmosphere but are produced by the reanalysis and statistical method itself.