Pacific Island States Research Articles

Between tides: examining China discourses in Pacific Island news media

The Indo-Pacific context has gained increasing geopolitical focus over the last decade, and particularly over the last five years as powers such as the United States, Australia, the European Union (and three of its Member States – France, Germany and the Netherlands) have elaborated dedicated Indo-Pacific strategies. Underlying these has been a concern with the actions of China, defined through contested geopolitical discourses on its role as an actor in the region. While this contestation has been given some attention in academic literature, notably absent has been a consideration of the impact on regional states caught between these discursive tides, and particularly of the Pacific Island states (unsurprising, given the focus on the northern maritime arc that predominates in Indo-Pacific research). This article fills this gap through analysis of eight news media outlets (seven local and one regional) covering October–November 2019 and 2022, identifying the main discourses on China in Pacific media and their source, and examining the impact of these on local Pacific reporting. It finds that, notwithstanding the preponderance of ‘Western’ discourses on China’s role in Pacific media through republication of external media reporting, this does not translate into influence over Pacific reporting. Instead, it is Chinese discourses on its role that have the greatest resonance.

Sasa’a le fafao?: Approaches to Return and Reintegration of Criminal Deportees (Returnees) into Samoa

Pacific Island states face high levels of criminal deportations arriving from the United States, Australia and New Zealand—with the expectation that returnees will simply reintegrate. However, reintegration into a country that individuals often do not remember, or know the language or cutural protocols of, can be difficult. Returnees may face social stigma and/or subsequent surveillance and legal requirements on their return: the latter known in scholarly literature as ‘crimmigration creep’. In this article, we examine the case of Samoa, which has taken a unique culture-centric approach to reintegration through the establishment of the quasi-governmental Samoa Returnees Charitable Trust, rejecting external ‘one-size-fits-all’ approaches. We argue that this exertion of Samoa’s agency has led to a delay in crimmigration creep.

Exposure to Transnational Maritime Crime in the Pacific Islands Region

Although the Pacific Islands are strategically located alongside important trade routes, between the Global North and Global South countries and among plentiful fishing grounds, this region is considered among the lowest risk for land‐based organized crime. Grouped as a uniform region, collectively, the Pacific islands are anything but. The region consists of three ethnogeographic subregions with varying colonial, cultural, and legal legacies. Geographically, the Pacific Island states are remote, with small populations dispersed across many islands, some of which are uninhabited, limiting the ability to adequately surveil and protect this extensive maritime domain, creating porous land and sea borders. These challenges increase the complexity of policing the large exclusive economic zones of the region and therefore increase its vulnerability and potential exposure to various transnational organized crimes on land and at sea. Drawing on Kelling and Wilson’s broken windows theory, this article considers from a theoretical perspective, how international law can be used as a framework to guide Pacific Island states in achieving strengthened, region‐led resilience to transnational maritime crime in the pursuit of maritime justice.

Navigating the Pacific: Solomon Islands Attempt to Gain Influence in the Middle of China-US Rivalry

The Pacific Islands Region is in the spotlight due to rising tensions between China and the U.S. This situation has escalated with China offering security pacts to Pacific Islands states in 2022. Despite most Pacific states rejecting the offer, the Solomon Islands, as the only country to accept it, caused concern for the U.S. and its allies. Considering that the Solomon Islands lack the traditional power to support their decision to align with China against the U.S. and its allies, it is an intriguing issue to delve into. This research aims to analyze the phenomenon by using qualitative-descriptive methods and the concept of Small States. This will give us a new way to understand how small states in the Pacific Ocean maneuver amidst the US-China rivalry by analyzing strategic indicators they can utilize rather than solely focusing on domestic circumstances to comprehend their decisions. We found that the Solomon Islands' ability to take such a risk stems from two sources of power: particular-intrinsic and derivative power. Intrinsically, the Solomon Islands hold geopolitical importance, being strategically crucial for both China's Belt and Road initiative and the U.S.'s attempt to retain its regional influence. Derivatively, the Solomon Islands' sole position to accept the security pact is highly valued by China. This will lead to a mutually beneficial relationship among them, and the Solomon Islands can benefit in security and economic terms. This research sheds light on how a small state navigates its interest in the epicenter of rivalry between two great powers.Keywords: China-US rivalry; Pacific Islands Region; small states; Solomon Islands

Climate justice and Pacific Island countries – a case study on grassroots advocacy

ABSTRACT Many Commonwealth member states face the brunt of the climate crisis. In the Pacific Island states and the wider Pacific region, the frequency of severe weather events has increased. For instance, in 2023 the island of Vanuatu was impacted by cyclones Judy and Kevin in March and afterwards by cyclone Lola. According to Vanuatu officials, more than 10,000 homes were destroyed and the storms caused massive destruction to Vanuatu’s infrastructure and economy. Facing the likelihood that the global temperatures will reach or surpass the 1.5 degrees Celsius target between 2021 and 2040, a grassroots student movement was launched at the University of the South Pacific (USP) based on Emalus Campus, Vanuatu, which ended with a United Nations General Assembly resolution on climate justice and Pacific Island states. Even so, the situation remains alarming for many Commonwealth Small Island Developing States (SIDS) in the Pacific and there are important questions as to how these states will adapt to and mitigate climate change and also address the climate justice issues they face. This article provides a case study on climate justice and Commonwealth member states and looks at measures currently being considered or implemented by political leaders and other stakeholders.

Leading from the Frontline: A History of Pacific Climate Diplomacy

ABSTRACT Pacific Island states have, for decades, considered climate change a threat to their security. In 1991, island leaders declared global warming and sea level rise as serious environmental threats, and that their ‘cultural, economic and physical survival’ was at risk. Pacific Island countries have since played a disproportionate role in United Nations climate negotiations, working as a diplomatic bloc to shape new rules and to drive multilateral cooperation to reduce emissions. Pacific Island states have also sought greater recognition of climate change as a security threat. This article considers the history of Pacific climate diplomacy. It explains how Pacific Island countries have played a key role in the global response to the climate crisis and outlines the history of regional climate politics in the Pacific Islands Forum. We also focus on recurring tensions between Pacific Island states and Australia with regard to ambition to tackle climate change.

Special theme: Sustainable development challenges in the Pacific small Island developing states: The role of regional cooperation: Urbanization, climate change and sustainable development in the Pacific small Island states: The role of regional cooperation and integration

Special theme: Sustainable development challenges in the Pacific small Island developing states: The role of regional cooperation: Urbanization, climate change and sustainable development in the Pacific small Island states: The role of regional cooperation and integration

The 'Tilt' and the 'Pacific Uplift' in 'Global Britain's' ties with the Pacific Islands

Following the 2016 vote to leave the European Union, the British government sought to construct the UK as “Global Britain” to reinvigorate its foreign policy. Subsequently, in 2019, the UK government announced a “Pacific Uplift” to facilitate greater engagement with the Pacific Island States. Alongside Australia’s “Pacific Step Up” and New Zealand’s “Pacific Reset”, this engagement is part of a wider shift in foreign relations as Western powers seek to counter perceived Chinese influence in the region. Within this article, I consider the changing relationship between the UK and the Pacific Island States. I argue that the UK’s “Pacific Uplift” was shaped by colonial legacies despite the absence of discussion of them. I contend that the UK’s re-engagement with Pacific Islanders is influenced by the announcement of the Australian-UK-US (AUKUS) security alliance and the UK’s wider military presence continues to be framed by colonial legacies. Finally, I argue that climate-ocean governance has been utilised by the UK to leverage influence as a partner rather than a former colonial power. I advocate for greater scrutiny of the UK’s changing relationship with Pacific Island States.

A dysfunctional family: Australia’s relationship with Pacific Island states and climate change

ABSTRACT I argue the instrumental, paternalistic strategic culture often adopted in Australian foreign policy circles is counter-productive, preventing Australia from having productive and sustainable relationships with Pacific states. If Australian officials want to follow through on rhetorical commitments to enhance Australia’s relationships in the Pacific, Australia must actively recognise the agency Pacific states have and place itself within this community of actors. Australia often positions itself as part of the ‘Pacific family,’ but to be a collaborative member of this family it must go beyond headline commitments and fundamentally reconsider the evolving agency of small Pacific states and how this shapes Australia’s interactions with them. We can understand this through the lens of normative communities. Revisiting constructivist International Relations theory, I reexamine who is included and excluded in the communities of actors that norms apply to. This has particularly significant implications around norms of climate change action and mitigation. Australia has historically tried to water down agreements and slow-role actions in this space. The ongoing bid to host COP31 perhaps offers an opportunity to both show leadership on climate-related issues and to reconfigure assumptions around Pacific agency and address the effects this has on Australia’s relationships in the Pacific.

Assessment and Prediction of Sea Level and Coastal Wetland Changes in Small Islands Using Remote Sensing and Artificial Intelligence

Pacific Island countries are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, which include the risks of increased ocean temperatures, sea level rise and coastal wetland loss. The destruction of wetlands leads not only to a loss of carbon sequestration but also triggers the release of already sequestered carbon, in turn exacerbating global warming. These climate change effects are interrelated, and small island nations continuously need to develop adaptive and mitigative strategies to deal with them. However, accurate and reliable research is needed to know the extent of the climate change effects with future predictions. Hence, this study develops a new hybrid Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) Multi-Layer Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) deep learning model with Multivariate Variational Mode Decomposition (MVMD) to predict the sea level for study sites in the Solomon Islands and Federated States of Micronesia (FSM). Three other artificial intelligence (AI) models (Random Forest (FR), multilinear regression (MLR) and multi-layer perceptron (MLP) are used to benchmark the CNN-BiLSTM model. In addition to this, remotely sensed satellite Landsat imagery data are also used to assess and predict coastal wetland changes using a Random Forest (RF) classification model in the two small Pacific Island states. The CNN-BiLSTM model was found to provide the most accurate predictions (with a correlation coefficient of >0.99), and similarly a high level of accuracy (>0.98) was achieved using a Random Forest (RF) model to detect wetlands in both study sites. The mean sea levels were found to have risen 6.0 ± 2.1 mm/year in the Solomon Islands and 7.2 ± 2.2 mm/year in the FSM over the past two decades. Coastal wetlands in general were found to have decreased in total area for both study sites. The Solomon Islands recorded a greater decline in coastal wetland between 2009 and 2022.

The Spatial Dimension of Police Legitimacy: An Exploration of Two Pacific Island States

The police legitimacy literature is grounded predominantly in studies from the Global North. In these contexts, technology and economic resources allow policing institutions to exercise significant reach in ways that mitigate the challenges to service delivery posed by distance and geography while the bureaucratic state relationally distances these same institutions from the public. This scholarship tends to take these governmental ‘fixes’ as given. In Global South contexts, these fixes are less reliable. The complexities of policing in dispersed states—rural, remote, and island—are frequently mentioned within scholarship. However, the question of how spatial relations impact police legitimacy and services largely remains a passing concern. In this paper, we argue that in the Global South, spatial relations are important elements contributing to police legitimacy. This argument is made by reframing the rural and remote policing literature to explore how spatial archipelagic features influence how policing by the state occurs. This work is used as our analytical scaffold in two case studies of the Solomon Islands and Tonga that illustrate how space influences local views of police. We argue that space is a key contextual characteristic that needs to be considered within future police legitimacy research and theorisation.

‘Burn Like Hot Stones’: Children’s Perceptions of Environmental Change in Samoa

A survey of children in the small Pacific Island state of Samoa was undertaken through focus groups and drawings. This primary study of children of different ages demonstrated that children were aware of local environmental changes including those triggered by climate change. The majority of Samoan children of both genders were aware of the multiple dimensions of climate change affecting Samoa, namely rising temperatures, heavier rainfall, stronger winds, cyclones, and how these affected to varying degrees different parts of Samoa. Sea level rise was perceived to be a feature of future, rather than, current climate change. Gender variations reflected domestic activities of children, while village location influenced observations and perceptions of change. Their knowledge was informed by their experiences of recent events triggered by climate change and tectonic activities, attending school, as well as by listening to various media sources such as television and radio, and to family members. Younger children, aged 6-9 years, had a basic understanding of climate change. Older children, aged 10-15 years, were able to conceptualize future changes, and exhibited a degree of forward thinking that suggested potential resilience in the face of change.

The Operational Codes of Pacific Island Countries’ Leaders: Beliefs about the World amidst Climate Change

Abstract Small island states such as Tuvalu face major risks due to anthropogenic climate change and rise in sea levels. Whereas these microstates face an existential crisis, there is scant interest in understanding how their leaders view the world. This paper takes a political leadership approach and explores the belief systems of Pacific Island countries (PICs). Drawing from the United Nations plenary addresses of the PICs’ leaders, it uses the operational code construct to assess their general and climate change-specific beliefs. Given their small state status in world politics and imminent threats to the viability of their communities, how do the PICs view the world and specifically the global politics of climate change? The findings suggest the PICs leaders have a more hostile view concerning climate change, with few exceptions they believe the PICs have less control over climate change matters, and again, with few exceptions, the PICs have less cooperative strategies in the global politics of climate change. This paper captures a preliminary account of beliefs about climate change, presents an empirical foundation to trace these in the Pacific Island states, and suggests venues for future research.

British diplomatic re-engagement in the Pacific: more than just words?

ABSTRACT The United Kingdom’s trade policy of ‘Commonwealth Preference’, long treasured by Australians and New Zealanders, was phased out half a century ago as Britain shied from the expense of remaining a world power, and sought the practical benefits of commercial integration in the European Economic Community. In the context of the 2016 referendum, leading Brexit supporters resurrected memories of Britain’s erstwhile trade with Commonwealth partners, disingenuously presented as an alternative to the country’s most profitable markets in Europe. This article examines the substance of the current Conservative government’s purported British re-engagement with the Commonwealth states of the Pacific, be it Australia and New Zealand or small Pacific Island states, in fields including trade, aid, strategic relations and diplomacy more broadly.

Tā, Vā, and Lā: Re-imagining the geopolitics of the Pacific Islands

Oceanic perspectives seldom appear in the geopolitical discourse of metropolitan powers, and the agency of Pacific Island states and peoples is often overlooked. Inspired by calls from political geographers for ‘a more ambitious geopolitical imagination’ (Sharp, 2013), and from Oceanic scholars ‘to examine indigenous epistemologies, ontologies and cosmological ideas and philosophes so that global conversations include local and indigenous understandings’ (Vaai & Nabobo-Baba, 2017), our article represents a conversation between four scholars from differing backgrounds about how analyses of Pacific geopolitics could be re-imagined. We argue that dominant western accounts do not adequately account for the geopolitics of the Pacific because they overlook the multi-temporal, multi-spatial, multi-scalar, and relational ways in which states and other actors behave in the Pacific, and how Pacific Island states and Oceanic peoples perceive, respond to, and influence their behaviour. We instead propose that the intersecting sociospatial conceptualisations of tā (based on the Tongan word taimi, time), vā (vava, space-place), and lā (lahi, big or wide-ranging) can be brought into conversation with the political geography concepts of time, space, and scale. We do not generalise from this example, nor imply that all Oceanic peoples will share our understanding – the region is highly heterogenous. We instead pursue the modest goal of demonstrating how gaps in understanding might be bridged.

Analysing Civilian Video Footage for Enhanced Scientific Understanding of the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami, Japan, with Implications for PNG and Pacific Islands

Approximately 70% of global tsunamis are generated within the pan Pacific Ocean region. This paper reports on detailed analysis of civilian video footage from the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, Japan. Comprehensive scientific analysis of tsunami video footage can yield valuable insights into geophysical processes and impacts. Civili22an video footage captured during the 2011 Tohoku, East Honshu, Japan tsunami was critically examined to identify key tsunami processes and estimate local inundation heights and flow velocity in Kesennuma City. Significant tsunami processes within the video were captured and orientated in ArcGIS Pro to create an OIC (Oriented Imagery Catalogue). The OIC was published to ArcGIS Online, and the oriented imagery was configured into an interactive website. Flow velocity was estimated by quantifying the distance and time taken for an object to travel between two known points in the video. Estimating inundation height was achieved by taking objects with known or calculable dimensions and measuring them against maximum local inundation height observations. The oriented imagery process produced an interactive Experience Builder app in ArcGIS Online, highlighting key tsunami processes captured within the video. The estimations of flow velocity and local inundation height quantified during video analysis indicate flow speeds ranging from 2.5–4.29 m/s and an estimated maximum local run-up height of 7.85 m in Kesennuma City. The analysis of civilian video footage provides a remarkable opportunity to investigate tsunami impact in localised areas of Japan and around the world. These data and analyses inform tsunami hazard maps, particularly in reasonably well-mapped terrains with remote access to landscape data. The results can aid in the understanding of tsunami behaviours and help inform effective mitigation strategies in tsunami-vulnerable areas. The affordable, widely accessible analysis and methodology presented here has numerous applications, and does not require highly sophisticated equipment. Tsunamis are a significant to major geohazard globally including many Pacific Island states, e.g., Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, and Tonga. Video footage geoscientific analysis, as here reported, can benefit tsunami and cyclone storm surge hazards in the Pacific Islands region and elsewhere.

The informalisation of precarious work in fishing crew: Experiences of Fijian fishers on distant water vessels

This paper examines the experiences of local fishing crew in Pacific Island states who join distant water fishing vessels, drawing on Fijian fishers as a case study for our discussion. Locally recruited and deployed fishers often face precarious labour conditions on fishing vessels and we discuss their vulnerability using three registers of precarious work: unsafe and exploitative working conditions, wage theft, and the lack of mechanisms for compensation after exiting their work on board the vessels. The experiences of many such crew fit internationally accepted criteria for forced labour. We contest the current characterisation of forced labour on distant water fishing vessels as primarily a problem that applies to Southeast Asian migrants. In developing a greater understanding the experiences of Fijian fishing crew, we draw out how their mode of entry into distant water fishing crew work, and location as Pacific Island nationals recruited in port/ fleet states can contribute to their vulnerability to exploitation.

Sea-Level Rise Effects on Changing Hazard Exposure to Far-Field Tsunamis in a Volcanic Pacific Island

Coastal flooding exacerbated by climate change is recognised as a major global threat which is expected to impact more than a quarter of all people currently residing in Pacific Island countries. While most research in the last decade has focused on understanding the dynamics and impacts of future coastal flooding from extreme sea levels, the effects of relative sea level rise (RSLR) on exacerbating tsunami hazards are not well understood. Far-field or distant sourced tsunamis tend to have relatively lower impacts in Pacific Island states compared with locally sourced events, but there is limited understanding of how the impact of far-field tsunamis changes over time due to RSLR. Using the hydrodynamics software BG-Flood, we modelled the Tōhoku-oki tsunami from propagation to inundation in Samoa under incremental SLR to examine the effects that RSLR has on changing the exposure of the built environment (e.g., buildings) to a far-field tsunami. Outputs of maximum tsunami inundation and flow depth intensities which incorporate incremental SLR were then combined with digital representations of buildings and depth-damage functions in the RiskScape multi-hazard risk modelling software to assess the changes in building exposure over time. Results suggest that the impacts of Tōhoku-oki-type far-field tsunamis become significant once RSLR reaches 1 m above present levels. Present-day building exposure will increase by approx. 500% with 1 m RSLR by 2080–2130, and approx. 2350% with 2 m RSLR by as early as 2130–2140. These findings provide useful insights for application to tsunami hazard risk assessments under changing sea level conditions in analogous island environments.

The Relevance of International Disaster Law Frameworks to a Pacific Island State

The Relevance of International Disaster Law Frameworks to a Pacific Island State

A South-South tango: China’s soft power relations with Fiji since 1975

This paper on China’s soft power relations with Fiji since 1975 provides an on-the-ground view of the scope of China’s Aid, Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) and Trade with Fiji to provide an alternative narrative for China’s increased presence in the Pacific, including Fiji. Its focus on China’s three non-coercive tools of soft power diplomacy (aid, FDI and trade) with Fiji aims to highlight Fiji’s anticipatory geographies as initially conceptualized by Sparke (2007) and applied to Fiji by Szadziewski (2020). Existing literature on China’s increased presence in the Pacific is dominated by geopolitical and geostrategic narratives which portray Pacific island states as a ‘collective pawn’ in the aid completion between the Pacific islands’ traditional aid donors (U.S., Australia and New Zealand) and China. This paper highlights the need for alternative narratives to show the agency of Pacific island states, including Fiji, and how they are capable of setting its own aid agendas and of choosing their principal aid donors. It also seeks to challenge mainstream alarmist and fear mongering narratives of China’s increased presence in the Pacific and Fiji.