Pacific El Nino-Southern Oscillation Research Articles

Increasing monsoon precipitation extremes in relation to large-scale climatic patterns in Pakistan

This study comprehensively evaluates monsoon variability and its large-scale drivers in Pakistan, a country often affected by extreme monsoon events leading to destructive flooding. Utilizing the Monotonic Mann-Kendall and Sen's Slope test, we analyzed trends in seven indicators of extreme precipitation events (EPEs) from 1961 to 2017 across Pakistan and its homogeneous climatic regions. The wavelet coherence method further allowed us to probe the connection between EPEs and key climate indices such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Indian summer monsoon (ISM), and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) in the time-frequency domain. Our findings indicate a significant increase in all EPEs across Pakistan, particularly in the monsoon region (R-II) from 1961 to 2017, with a noticeable decline post-1980s. The findings revealed a significant increase in EPEs in the whole country from 1961 to 1989 to 1990–2017, with a dominant change in the monsoon region during 1990–2017. In terms of climate indices combinations, IOD + ISM showed the highest coherences (>0.65), while ENSO+IOD + ISM and ENSO+IOD + PDO displayed coherences >0.81 and > 0.79, respectively, across the entire country. The multi-linear regression (MLR) model analysis drivers indicate that IOD and ENSO are the leading drivers of changes in monsoon EPEs in the whole country, whereas the core monsoon region of Pakistan also showed a strong influence from AMO and NAO in tandem with ENSO and IOD. The overall increase in EPEs over Pakistan are mainly associated with the indices from the Pacific Ocean, especially IOD, ENSO and PDO and with their various combinations. Our study reveals the variations in EPEs across Pakistan, yielding insights that could inform water resource management strategies and disaster prevention measures.

Central-Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation less predictable under greenhouse warming

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of interannual climate variability in the tropical Pacific, whose nature nevertheless may change significantly in a warming climate. Here, we show that the predictability of ENSO may decrease in the future. Across the models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), we find a robust decrease of the persistence and predictability for the Central Pacific (CP) ENSO under global warming, notably in passing through the boreal spring. The strength of spring predictability barrier will be increased by 25% in the future. The reduced predictability of CP ENSO is caused by the faster warming over surface ocean in tropical Pacific and, in turn, the enhanced thermodynamical damping rate on CP ENSO in response to global warming. In contrast, the predictability of Eastern Pacific ENSO will not change. Our results suggest that future greenhouse warming will make the prediction of CP ENSO more challenging, with far-reaching implications on future climate predictions.

Sources of low-frequency variability in observed Antarctic sea ice

Abstract. Antarctic sea ice has exhibited significant variability over the satellite record, including a period of prolonged and gradual expansion, as well as a period of sudden decline. A number of mechanisms have been proposed to explain this variability, but how each mechanism manifests spatially and temporally remains poorly understood. Here, we use a statistical method called low-frequency component analysis to analyze the spatiotemporal structure of observed Antarctic sea ice concentration variability. The identified patterns reveal distinct modes of low-frequency sea ice variability. The leading mode, which accounts for the large-scale, gradual expansion of sea ice, is associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and resembles the observed sea surface temperature trend pattern that climate models have trouble reproducing. The second mode is associated with the central Pacific El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode and accounts for most of the sea ice variability in the Ross Sea. The third mode is associated with the eastern Pacific ENSO and Amundsen Sea Low and accounts for most of the pan-Antarctic sea ice variability and almost all of the sea ice variability in the Weddell Sea. The third mode is also related to periods of abrupt Antarctic sea ice decline that are associated with a weakening of the circumpolar westerlies, which favors surface warming through a shoaling of the ocean mixed layer and decreased northward Ekman heat transport. Broadly, these results suggest that climate model biases in long-term Antarctic sea ice and large-scale sea surface temperature trends are related to each other and that eastern Pacific ENSO variability is a key ingredient for abrupt Antarctic sea ice changes.

The dominant modes of recent sea level variability from 1993 to 2020 in the China Seas

A better understanding of internal climatic variability is essential for estimating and predicting regional sea level rise in the coming decades. Based on the satellite altimeter data, the cyclostationary empirical orthogonal function (CSEOF) analysis is used to extract and examine the seasonal signal, trend, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related, and low-frequency mode of sea level anomaly in the China Seas from 1993 to 2020. The interannual changes in the annual cycle of sea level were significantly influenced by the mean surface pressure and the 10-m zonal wind component. Furthermore, strong El Niño events (1997/1998) can significantly affect seasonal fluctuations through precipitation and runoff. By recombining the loading vector and principal component time series of the trend mode, we estimate the sea level trends to be about 3.63 ± 0.37 mm/yr. The South China Sea, followed by the Yellow Sea, is where ENSO's effects on sea level fluctuations are most noticeable. The 2015–2016 El Niño, which was a combination of the Central Pacific (CP) ENSO Eastern Pacific (EP) ENSO, had average sea levels that were much lower than those of the 1997–1998 (CP ENSO) and 2009–2010 (CP ENSO). The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) can significantly affect the low frequency mode, but other sources also contribute to this mode. The South China Sea, especially to the west of Luzon Island, exhibits the highest level of variability in the low-frequency mode. Finally, our work shows that, in contrast to global or oceanic scales, regional CSEOF analysis does, in fact, capture regional sea level variability more accurately and detailed.

Dominant contribution of atmospheric nonlinearities to ENSO asymmetry and extreme El Niño events

Extreme El Niño events have outsized impacts and strongly contribute to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) warm/cold phase asymmetries. There is currently no consensus on the respective importance of oceanic and atmospheric nonlinearities for those asymmetries. Here, we use atmospheric and oceanic general circulation models that reproduce ENSO asymmetries well to quantify the atmospheric nonlinearities contribution. The linear and nonlinear components of the wind stress response to Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies are isolated using ensemble atmospheric experiments, and used to force oceanic experiments. The wind stress-SST nonlinearity is dominated by the deep atmospheric convective response to SST. This wind-stress nonlinearity contributes to ~ 40% of the peak amplitude of extreme El Niño events and ~ 55% of the prolonged eastern Pacific warming they generate until the following summer. This large contribution arises because nonlinearities consistently drive equatorial westerly anomalies, while the larger linear component is made less efficient by easterly anomalies in the western Pacific during fall and winter. Overall, wind-stress nonlinearities fully account for the eastern Pacific positive ENSO skewness. Our findings underscore the pivotal role of atmospheric nonlinearities in shaping extreme El Niño events and, more generally, ENSO asymmetry.

Impact of the North Pacific Meridional Mode on the Tropical Pacific Modulated by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

Abstract The North Pacific meridional mode (NPMM) peaking in boreal spring influences El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) properties in the ensuing winter. Whether the precursory impact of NPMM on the spatial diversity of ENSO has decadal variation remains unknown. Using long-term reanalysis datasets, we find that the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) significantly modulates the NPMM forcing on two types of ENSO. During the positive IPO (+IPO) phase, a strengthened background Aleutian low and southward-shifted storm track, in comparison to the negative IPO (−IPO) phase, produce stronger basin-scale negative geopotential height tendency anomalies over the North Pacific through synoptic-scale eddy–mean flow interaction. Such strong background negative tendency facilitates an Aleutian low–like pressure monopole rather than a North Pacific Oscillation (NPO)-like pressure dipole in boreal spring, leading to a weak NPMM that cannot effectively promote development of either a central Pacific (CP) or an eastern Pacific (EP) ENSO. By contrast, the NPO-like dipole enhances in boreal spring during −IPO, corresponding to stronger and more frequently occurring NPMM events that induce a robust CP-ENSO-like response in boreal winter. Moreover, the −IPO-related tropical Pacific mean states and the associated positive feedbacks cause a strong decrease in mixed layer temperature variance in the equatorial eastern Pacific, but a slight increase in the central Pacific, thus further contributing to the enhanced correlation between NPMM and CP-ENSO. Therefore, −IPO has played a role in the stronger impact of NPMM on CP-ENSO since the 1990s, and the modulation effects of IPO should be considered in understanding the extratropical–tropical climatic connection and ENSO spatial diversity.

El Niño‐La Niña Asymmetries in the Changes of ENSO Complexities and Dynamics Since 1990

AbstractIn around 1990, significant shifts occurred in the spatial pattern and temporal evolution of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with these shifts showing asymmetry between El Niño and La Niña phases. El Niño transitioned from the Eastern Pacific (EP) to the Central Pacific (CP) type, while La Niña's multi‐year (MY) events increased. These changes correlated with shifts in ENSO dynamics. Before 1990, El Niño was influenced by the Tropical Pacific (TP) ENSO dynamic, shifting to the Subtropical Pacific (SP) ENSO dynamic afterward, altering its spatial pattern. La Niña was influenced by the SP ENSO dynamic both before and after 1990 and has maintained the CP type. The strengthened SP ENSO dynamic since 1990, accompanied by enhanced precipitation efficiency during La Niña, make it easier for La Niña to transition into MY events. In contrast, there is no observed increase in precipitation efficiency during El Niño.

The Indian Ocean Weakens the ENSO Spring Predictability Barrier: Role of the Indian Ocean Basin and Dipole Modes

Abstract Prediction of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is hindered by a spring predictability barrier (SPB). In this paper, we investigate the effects of the Indian Ocean (IO) on the SPB. Using a seasonally varying extended IO–ENSO recharge oscillator model, we find that the SPB is much weakened when IO is coupled with ENSO. To gauge the relative role of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) and the Indian Ocean Basin (IOB) modes in weakening ENSO SPB, we develop an empirical dynamical model, the linear inverse model (LIM). By coupling/decoupling the IOB or IOD mode with ENSO, we show that the IOB significantly weakens eastern Pacific and central Pacific ENSO SPBs, while the IOD plays a weaker role. The evolution of the optimum initial structures also illustrates the importance of the IOB in ENSO SPB. Moreover, the IOB strongly influences the forecast skill of La Niña SPB rather than El Niño SPB. This point is also identified through six coupled models from the North American multimodel ensemble. It may be related to the role of the IO in the asymmetry in the duration of El Niño and La Niña. The IOB-induced easterly wind anomalies are conducive to the development of La Niña and thus the prediction of La Niña events, whereas these anomalous easterlies are less important during the development of El Niño and the related forecast of El Niño events.

Explained predictions of strong eastern Pacific El Niño events using deep learning

Global and regional impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are sensitive to the details of the pattern of anomalous ocean warming and cooling, such as the contrasts between the eastern and central Pacific. However, skillful prediction of such ENSO diversity remains a challenge even a few months in advance. Here, we present an experimental forecast with a deep learning model (IGP-UHM AI model v1.0) for the E (eastern Pacific) and C (central Pacific) ENSO diversity indices, specialized on the onset of strong eastern Pacific El Niño events by including a classification output. We find that higher ENSO nonlinearity is associated with better skill, with potential implications for ENSO predictability in a warming climate. When initialized in May 2023, our model predicts the persistence of El Niño conditions in the eastern Pacific into 2024, but with decreasing strength, similar to 2015–2016 but much weaker than 1997–1998. In contrast to the more typical El Niño development in 1997 and 2015, in addition to the ongoing eastern Pacific warming, an eXplainable Artificial Intelligence analysis for 2023 identifies weak warm surface, increased sea level and westerly wind anomalies in the western Pacific as precursors, countered by warm surface and southerly wind anomalies in the northern Atlantic.

Insights into ENSO Diversity from an Intermediate Coupled Model. Part I: Uniqueness and Sensitivity of the ENSO Mode

Abstract The basic dynamics of the spatiotemporal diversity for El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been the subject of extensive research and, while several hypotheses have been proposed, remains elusive. One promising line of studies suggests that the observed eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) ENSO may originate from two coexisting leading ENSO modes. We show that the coexistence of unstable EP-like and CP-like modes in these studies arises from contaminated linear stability analysis due to unnoticed numerical scheme caveats. In this two-part study, we further investigate the dynamics of ENSO diversity within a Cane–Zebiak-type model. We first revisit the linear stability issue to demonstrate that only one ENSO-like linear leading mode exists under realistic climate conditions. This single leading ENSO mode can be linked to either a coupled recharge-oscillator (RO) mode favored by the thermocline feedback or a wave-oscillator (WO) mode favored by the zonal advective feedback at the weak air–sea coupling end. Strong competition between the RO and WO modes for their prominence in shaping this ENSO mode into a generalized RO mode makes it sensitive to moderate changes in these two key feedbacks. Modulations of climate conditions yield corresponding modulations in spatial pattern, amplitude, and period associated with this ENSO mode. However, the ENSO behavior undergoing this linear climate condition modulations alone does not seem consistent with the observed ENSO diversity, suggesting the inadequacy of linear dynamics in explaining ENSO diversity. A nonlinear mechanism for ENSO diversity will be proposed and discussed in Part II.

Insights into ENSO Diversity from an Intermediate Coupled Model. Part II: Role of Nonlinear Dynamics and Stochastic Forcing

Abstract In this study, we investigate how a single leading linear El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) mode, as studied in Part I, leads to the irregular coexistence of central Pacific (CP) and eastern Pacific (EP) ENSO, a phenomenon known as ENSO spatiotemporal diversity. This diversity is fundamentally generated by deterministic nonlinear pathways to chaos via the period-doubling route and, more prevailingly, the subharmonic resonance route with the presence of a seasonally varying basic state. When residing in the weakly nonlinear regime, the coupled system sustains a weak periodic oscillation with a mixed CP/EP pattern as captured by the linear ENSO mode. With a stronger nonlinearity effect, the ENSO behavior experiences a period-doubling bifurcation. The single ENSO orbit splits into coexisting CP-like and EP-like ENSO orbits. A sequence of period-doubling bifurcation results in an aperiodic oscillation featuring irregular CP and EP ENSO occurrences. The overlapping of subharmonic resonances between ENSO and the seasonal cycle allows this ENSO irregularity and diversity to be more readily excited. In the strongly nonlinear regime, the coupled system is dominated by regular EP ENSO. The deterministic ENSO spatiotemporal diversity is thus confined to a relatively narrow range corresponding to a moderately unstable ENSO mode. Stochastic forcing broadens this range and allows ENSO diversity to occur when the ENSO mode is weakly subcritical. A close relationship among a weakened mean zonal temperature gradient, stronger ENSO activity, and more (fewer) occurrences of EP (CP) ENSO is noted, indicating that ENSO–mean state interaction may yield ENSO regime modulations on the multidecadal time scale.

The Effect of Indian Ocean Temperature on the Pacific Trade Winds and ENSO

AbstractA notable shift in the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been observed in the early 21st century, characterized by an increased prevalence of Central Pacific (CP) events and strengthened Pacific trade winds. This shift may be attributed to the warming tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). To investigate this, we conduct perturbation experiments using the Insitut Pierre Simon Laplace climate model and nudge TIO surface temperatures to induce warming or cooling effects. Our findings reveal that TIO warming (or cooling) leads to amplified (weakened) mean trade winds and surface warming (cooling) in the Pacific region. Surprisingly, ENSO variability increases in both TIO cooling and warming scenarios. This result is linked to stronger positive feedbacks and a less stable Bjerknes index for either TIO forcing. Additionally, we find that TIO warming leads to more frequent CP events, meridional widening of wind anomalies, and broadening of the ENSO power spectrum toward lower frequencies.

ENSO skewness hysteresis and associated changes in strong El Niño under a CO2 removal scenario

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly skewness encapsulates the nonlinear processes of strong ENSO events and affects future climate projections. Yet, its response to CO2 forcing remains not well understood. Here, we find ENSO skewness hysteresis in a large ensemble CO2 removal simulation. The positive SST skewness in the central-to-eastern tropical Pacific gradually weakens (most pronounced near the dateline) in response to increasing CO2, but weakens even further once CO2 is ramped down. Further analyses reveal that hysteresis of the Intertropical Convergence Zone migration leads to more active and farther eastward-located strong eastern Pacific El Niño events, thus decreasing central Pacific ENSO skewness by reducing the amplitude of the central Pacific positive SST anomalies and increasing the scaling effect of the eastern Pacific skewness denominator, i.e., ENSO intensity, respectively. The reduction of eastern Pacific El Niño maximum intensity, which is constrained by the SST zonal gradient of the projected background El Niño-like warming pattern, also contributes to a reduction of eastern Pacific SST skewness around the CO2 peak phase. This study highlights the divergent responses of different strong El Niño regimes in response to climate change.

Distinct Impacts of Two Types of Developing El Niño–Southern Oscillations on Tibetan Plateau Summer Precipitation

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has remarkable impacts on Tibetan Plateau (TP) summer precipitation. However, recently identified ENSO spatial diversity brings complexity to these impacts. This study investigates the distinct impacts of the Eastern Pacific (EP) and Central Pacific (CP) ENSOs on TP summer precipitation based on numerous precipitation data and satellite-observed and reanalyzed circulation data. The results show that the EP El Niño and the CP La Niña have opposite effects on summer precipitation in the southwestern TP, with significant decreases and increases, respectively, indicating a trans-type inversion. In contrast, the CP El Niño causes significant decreases in summer precipitation in the central-eastern TP. No significant anomaly occurs during the EP La Niña. Moisture budget and circulation analyses suggest that these distinct precipitation characteristics can be attributed to different atmospheric teleconnections, which provide varying vertical motion and moisture conditions. The EP El Niño triggers an atmospheric response similar to the Indian Summer Monsoon–East Asian Summer Monsoon teleconnection, and the CP La Niña generates a teleconnection in the opposite phase. In contrast, the CP El Niño mainly causes a teleconnection resembling the East Asian–Pacific pattern. This study may deepen our understanding of ENSO impacts on TP summer precipitation and have implications for regional climate predictions.

Seasonally Alternate Roles of the North Pacific Oscillation and the South Pacific Oscillation in Tropical Pacific Zonal Wind and ENSO

Abstract The western-central equatorial Pacific (WCEP) zonal wind affects El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) by involving a series of multiscale air–sea interactions. Its interannual variation contributes the most to ENSO amplitude. Thus, understanding the predictability of the WCEP interannual wind is of great importance for better predictions of ENSO. Here, we show that the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) and the South Pacific Oscillation (SPO) alternate in fueling this interannual wind from late boreal winter to austral winter in the presence of background trade winds in different hemispheres. During the boreal winter–spring, the NPO registers footprints in the tropics by benefiting from the Pacific meridional mode and modulating the northwestern Pacific intertropical convergence zone (NITCZ). However, as austral winter approaches, the SPO takes over the role of the NPO in maintaining the anomalous NITCZ. Moreover, the interannual wind is further driven to the east in the positive phase of the SPO, by intensified central-eastern equatorial Pacific convection resulting from tropical–extratropical heat flux adjustments. A reconstructed WCEP interannual wind index involving only the NPO and the SPO possesses a long lead time for ENSO prediction of nearly one year. These two extratropical boosters enhance the viability of equatorial Pacific zonal wind anomalies associated with the large growth rate of ENSO, and the one in the winter hemisphere seems to be more efficient in forcing the tropics. Our result further indicates that the NPO benefits a long-lead prediction of the WCEP interannual wind and ENSO, while the SPO is the dominant extratropical predictor of ENSO amplitude. Significance Statement ENSO is closely linked to the interannual variability of equatorial Pacific zonal wind, and ENSO prediction is impeded by the weak predictability of the wind. We have found that the North Pacific Oscillation and the South Pacific Oscillation take turns in affecting the interannual variability of the zonal wind from the late boreal winter to austral winter, and the winter hemisphere extratropical booster is more efficient in modulating tropical convection and the associated surface winds. An estimated zonal wind index constructed by the two extratropical precursors possesses a long lead time for ENSO prediction. Our result provides useful information for better predicting ENSO by further considering winter hemisphere extratropical climate variability.

Regional Characteristics of Summer Precipitation Anomalies in the Northeastern Maritime Continent

Based on the monthly mean reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR (National Centers for Environmental Prediction/ National Center for Atmospheric Research) and GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project) (1979–2020), the regional characteristics of precipitation in the warm pool side of the Maritime Continent (MC) and the relationships between different precipitation patterns and atmospheric circulations are studied. The results show that there are significant correlations as well as differences between the precipitation in the east of the Philippines (area A) and that in the Pacific Ocean near the Northern Mariana Islands (area B). Precipitation in area A is closely related to the eastern Pacific ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) and EAP/PJ (East Asia-Pacific/Pacific-Japan) teleconnection pattern, while precipitation in area B is linked to the Indian Ocean basin-wide and the South China Sea summer monsoon. When the precipitation anomaly in area A is positive, the East Asian summer monsoon is weak. A cyclone appears to the northwest of area A at 850 hPa with convergence airflow. After filtering out the effects of precipitation in area B, the cyclone retreats to the west, and an anticyclone appears to the southeast of area A. When the precipitation is above normal in area B, the circulation and water vapor transportation are similar to that in area A but more to the east. The updraft and downdrafts to both north and south sides of area B form two closed meridional vertical circulations. When the influence of area A is moved out, the circulation center in the warm pool area moves eastward. This research contributes to a better understanding of the regional characteristics of the Maritime Continent and the East Asian summer monsoon.

Deconstructing Global Observed and Reanalysis Total Cloud Cover Fields Based on Pacific Climate Modes

Clouds are notoriously difficult to simulate. Here, we separate and quantify the impact of Pacific climate modes on total cloud cover (TCC) variability, using reliable satellite observations together with state-of-the art reanalysis outputs, over the 1979–2020 period. The two most prominent modes of annual TCC variability show intense loadings over the Pacific basin and explain most of the variance in what could be considered the “signal” in satellite TCC data. Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) provides coupled TCC—sea surface temperature (SST) patterns that are linked to the Eastern Pacific (EP) ElNiño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Central Pacific (CP) ENSO in a physically consistent manner. The two ENSO modes dominate global coupled SST–TCC variability with the footprint of the CP ENSO explaining roughly half of the variance induced by the EP ENSO among these coupled fields. Both the EP and the CP ENSO exert an influence on Pacific decadal TCC variability. The impact of both ENSO modes on global total cloud cover variability is amplified by two positive feedbacks. These results could be used as a reference for model investigations on future projections of coupled TCC—SST variability responses to the CP and the EP ENSO.

Recent progress in understanding the interaction between ENSO and the East Asian winter monsoon: A review

This paper reviews recent advances in understanding the interaction between the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The achievements are summarized into two aspects: 1) the impacts of ENSO on the EAWM, and 2) effects of the EAWM on ENSO. For the first aspect, the results show that: the current climate model simulations of ENSO impacts on the EAWM have a common weaker bias than in the observations; The influence of central Pacific type ENSO on the EAWM is generally weaker than that of the eastern Pacific type ENSO; The precipitation anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean tend to contribute to the intra-seasonal transition of ENSO teleconnection over East Asia; The ENSO-EAWM relationship is unstable and subject to non-linear modulation by the state of oceans and extratropical atmospheric phenomena, which include the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation. Regarding the second aspect, studies have shown that the “pure” EAWM (denoted as EAWMres), which is independent of the ENSO signal, can lead to significant variations in the tropical convection over the western Pacific, the local Hadley circulation over East Asia, and the Walker circulation over the equatorial latitudes; The CMIP6 models can preproduce the above EAWMres effects well, although with some weaker bias. The changes in tropical convection and extratropical zonal flow associated with the EAWMres tend to have a significant modulating effect on the ENSO atmospheric teleconnection over North America. A strong EAWM and a strong Australian summer monsoon coherently provide favorable conditions for the onset of El Niño.

Statistical Framework for Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Landfall Risk through Modulation of the Western Pacific Subtropical High and ENSO

Abstract Seasonal predictions of tropical cyclone (TC) landfalls are challenging because seasonal landfall count not only depends on the number and spatial distribution of TC genesis, but also whether those TCs are steered toward land or not. Past studies have separately examined genesis and landfall as a function of large-scale ocean and atmospheric environmental conditions. Here, we introduce a practical statistical framework for estimating the seasonal count of TC landfalls as the product of a Poisson model for seasonal TC genesis and a logistic model for landfall probability. We compute spatial variations in TC landfall and genesis by decomposing TC activity in the western North Pacific (WNP) basin into 10° × 10° bins, then identify coherent regions where El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the western extent of the Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) have significant influences on seasonal landfall count. Our framework shows that ENSO and the WPSH are weakly related to basinwide landfalls but strongly related to regional genesis and landfall probability. ENSO modulates the zonal distribution of TC genesis, consistent with past work, whereas the WPSH modulates the meridional distribution of landfall probability due to variations in steering flow associated with the Pacific subtropical high. These spatial patterns result in four coherent subregions of the WNP basin that define seasonal landfall variations: landfall count increases in the southwestern WNP during a positive WPSH and La Niña, the south-central WNP during a positive WPSH and El Niño, the eastern WNP during a negative WPSH and El Niño, and the northern WNP during a negative WPSH and La Niña.

The Andes Affect ENSO Statistics

Abstract Current coupled global climate models have biases in their simulations of the tropical Pacific mean-state conditions as well as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Specifically, in the Community Earth System Model (CESM version 1.2.2), the tropical Pacific mean state has overly weak sea surface temperature (SST) gradients in both the zonal and meridional directions, ENSO is too strong and too regular, and El Niño and La Niña events are too symmetrical. A previous study with a slab-ocean model showed that a higher elevation of the Andes can improve the tropical Pacific mean-state simulation by adjusting the atmospheric circulation and increasing the east–west and north–south SST gradients. Motivated by the link between the mean tropical Pacific climate and ENSO variations shown in previous studies, here we explored the influence of the Andes on the simulation of ENSO using the CESM 1.2.2 under full atmosphere–ocean coupling. In addition to improving the simulated tropical Pacific mean state by increasing the strength of the surface easterly and cross-equatorial southerly winds, the Higher Andes experiment decreases the amplitude of ENSO, increases the phase asymmetry, and makes ENSO events less regular, resulting in a simulated ENSO that is more consistent with observations. The weaker ENSO cycle is related to stronger damping in the Higher Andes experiment according to an analysis of the Bjerknes index. Our overall results suggest that increasing the height of the Andes reduces biases in the mean state and improves the representation of ENSO in the tropical Pacific.