Changes In Ozone Depleting Substances Research Articles

Total ozone trends at three northern high-latitude stations

Abstract. After the decrease of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) as a consequence of the Montreal Protocol, it is still challenging to detect a recovery in the total column amount of ozone (total ozone) at northern high latitudes. To assess regional total ozone changes in the “ozone-recovery” period (2000–2020) at northern high latitudes, this study investigates trends from ground-based total ozone measurements at three stations in Norway (Oslo, Andøya, and Ny-Ålesund). For this purpose, we combine measurements from Brewer spectrophotometers, ground-based UV filter radiometers (GUVs), and a SAOZ (Système d'Analyse par Observation Zénithale) instrument. The Brewer measurements have been extended to work under cloudy conditions using the global irradiance (GI) technique, which is also presented in this study. We derive trends from the combined ground-based time series with the multiple linear regression model from the Long-term Ozone Trends and Uncertainties in the Stratosphere (LOTUS) project. We evaluate various predictors in the regression model and found that tropopause pressure and lower-stratospheric temperature contribute most to ozone variability at the three stations. We report significantly positive annual trends at Andøya (0.9±0.7 % per decade) and Ny-Ålesund (1.5±0.1 % per decade) and no significant annual trend at Oslo (0.1±0.5 % per decade) but significantly positive trends in autumn at all stations. Finally we found positive but insignificant trends of around 3 % per decade in March at all three stations, which may be an indication of Arctic springtime ozone recovery. Our results contribute to a better understanding of regional total ozone trends at northern high latitudes, which is essential to assess how Arctic ozone responds to changes in ODSs and to climate change.

Long‐Term Variability and Tendencies in Migrating Diurnal Tide From WACCM6 Simulations During 1850–2014

AbstractLong‐term variability and tendencies in migrating diurnal tide (DW1) are investigated for the first time using a three‐member ensemble of historical simulations by NCAR's Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, latest Version 6 (WACCM6) for 1850–2014 (165 years). The model reproduces the climatological features of the tide in temperature (T), zonal wind (U), and meridional wind (V). The amplitudes peak in the upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere (above ~0.001 hPa) at the equator forT(~10 K) and over 20–30°N and S latitudes forU(~15 m/s) andV(~25 m/s). The contributions of solar cycle (SC), quasi biennial oscillation (QBO) at 10 and 30 hPa, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), ozone depleting substances (ODS), carbon dioxide (CO2), and stratospheric sulfate aerosols (volcanic eruptions) to change in annual mean amplitudes are analyzed using multiple linear regression. The tidal amplitudes in three components show a long‐term increase in the upper stratosphere (0.95–10.7 hPa) and the upper mesosphere (0.0001–0.01 hPa), predominantly due to increasing CO2with a smaller contribution from the trend in ENSO. Interestingly, the global mean tidal amplitude inTdecreases sharply after 1950–1960 until 1995 and then increases in association with changes in ODSs. The seasonal differences in tidal responses to the above indices can be as large as the overall signals. All the responses are stronger in the upper mesosphere; however, there is also a pronounced negative response of temperature tide to ODSs over middle to high latitudes around the stratopause (~1 hPa) during all seasons.

Future changes in the stratosphere-to-troposphere ozone mass flux and the contribution from climate change and ozone recovery

Abstract. Using a state-of-the-art chemistry–climate model we investigate the future change in stratosphere–troposphere exchange (STE) of ozone, the drivers of this change, as well as the future distribution of stratospheric ozone in the troposphere. Supplementary to previous work, our focus is on changes on the monthly scale. The global mean annual influx of stratospheric ozone into the troposphere is projected to increase by 53 % between the years 2000 and 2100 under the RCP8.5 greenhouse gas scenario. The change in ozone mass flux (OMF) into the troposphere is positive throughout the year with maximal increase in the summer months of the respective hemispheres. In the Northern Hemisphere (NH) this summer maximum STE increase is a result of increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, whilst in the Southern Hemisphere(SH) it is due to equal contributions from decreasing levels of ozone depleting substances (ODS) and increasing GHG concentrations. In the SH the GHG effect is dominating in the winter months. A large ODS-related ozone increase in the SH stratosphere leads to a change in the seasonal breathing term which results in a future decrease of the OMF into the troposphere in the SH in September and October. The resulting distributions of stratospheric ozone in the troposphere differ for the GHG and ODS changes due to the following: (a) ozone input occurs at different regions for GHG- (midlatitudes) and ODS-changes (high latitudes); and (b) stratospheric ozone is more efficiently mixed towards lower tropospheric levels in the case of ODS changes, whereas tropospheric ozone loss rates grow when GHG concentrations rise. The comparison between the moderate RCP6.0 and the extreme RCP8.5 emission scenarios reveals that the annual global OMF trend is smaller in the moderate scenario, but the resulting change in the contribution of ozone with stratospheric origin (O3s) to ozone in the troposphere is of comparable magnitude in both scenarios. This is due to the larger tropospheric ozone precursor emissions and hence ozone production in the RCP8.5 scenario.

OZONE VARIABILITY AND OZONE DEPLETING SUBSTANCES (ODS) IN INDONESIA BASED ON MLS-AURA DATA

Research and characterizing the ozone profiles and Ozone Depleting Substances (ODS) in Indonesia is a satellite data-based research activities. The aim of the study was to obtain the characteristics of ozone in Indonesia as well as the contribution of ODS to the variability of ozone. By performing a data inventory based on satellite data, analyze the pattern of annual, seasonal and perform linkage analysis of the contribution of ODS changes to the conditions of ozone. Daily data of vertical profiles of ozone and in the form of volume mixing ratio (vmr) with format HDF (Hierarchical Data Format) is extracted to the territory of Indonesia to take parameters as latitude, longitude, and concentration. Then converted to Excel format with the help of data processing software of MATLAB. Results obtained in the form of ozone characteristics in Indonesia, the percentage of contribution to the variability of ozone also contribution to the variability of ozone in Indonesia in several levels of height. By using Microwave Limb Sounders (MLS) AURA satellite data in the period of 2005 to 2013 characteristics of monthly vertical profiles of ozone in Indonesia has been obtained. The ODS studied were ClO and BrO. Peak of vertical profiles of ozone occurs at a pressure of 10 hPa or altitude of 25.9 km. ClO peak occurs at a pressure of 2.1 hPa or altitude of 30.6 km and BrO reached the peak at 14 hPa or altitude of 24.5 km. When ClO and BrO reach a maximum concentration at stratosphere then ozone molecules is potentially damaging or decrease in the stratosphere. Temporal variations of ozone showed decrease when ODS concentrations increased (particularly ClO and BrO). Linear regression of ozone with ozone showed a negative correlation coefficient which indicates there is a strong relationship between ozone concentrations decline in pressure of 14 hPa when BrO reach the maximum. Likewise for ClO which also showed a negative correlation with the decrease in ozone concentration. ClO contribution to the decreasing of ozone in Indonesia was marked by every addition of 0.01 ppb ClO will reduce ozone of 0.00583 ppm (5.83 ppb). While any increase of 0.01 ppb of BrO will decrease 0.03 ppb of ozone.

Evolution of the eastward shift in the quasi-stationary minimum of the Antarctic total ozone column

Abstract. The quasi-stationary pattern of the Antarctic total ozone has changed during the last 4 decades, showing an eastward shift in the zonal ozone minimum. In this work, the association between the longitudinal shift of the zonal ozone minimum and changes in meteorological fields in austral spring (September–November) for 1979–2014 is analyzed using ERA-Interim and NCEP–NCAR reanalyses. Regressive, correlative and anomaly composite analyses are applied to reanalysis data. Patterns of the Southern Annular Mode and quasi-stationary zonal waves 1 and 3 in the meteorological fields show relationships with interannual variability in the longitude of the zonal ozone minimum. On decadal timescales, consistent longitudinal shifts of the zonal ozone minimum and zonal wave 3 pattern in the middle-troposphere temperature at the southern midlatitudes are shown. Attribution runs of the chemistry–climate version of the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS-CCM) model suggest that long-term shifts of the zonal ozone minimum are separately contributed by changes in ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gases. As is known, Antarctic ozone depletion in spring is strongly projected on the Southern Annular Mode in summer and impacts summertime surface climate across the Southern Hemisphere. The results of this study suggest that changes in zonal ozone asymmetry accompanying ozone depletion could be associated with regional climate changes in the Southern Hemisphere in spring.

Isolating the roles of different forcing agents in global stratospheric temperature changes using model integrations with incrementally added single forcings.

Satellite instruments show a cooling of global stratospheric temperatures over the whole data record (1979-2014). This cooling is not linear, and includes two descending steps in the early 1980s and mid-1990s. The 1979-1995 period is characterized by increasing concentrations of ozone depleting substances (ODS) and by the two major volcanic eruptions of El Chichón (1982) and Mount Pinatubo (1991). The 1995-present period is characterized by decreasing ODS concentrations and by the absence of major volcanic eruptions. Greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations increase over the whole time period. In order to isolate the roles of different forcing agents in the global stratospheric temperature changes, we performed a set of AMIP-style simulations using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM). We find that in our model simulations the cooling of the stratosphere from 1979 to present is mostly driven by changes in GHG concentrations in the middle and upper stratosphere and by GHG and ODS changes in the lower stratosphere. While the cooling trend caused by increasing GHGs is roughly constant over the satellite era, changing ODS concentrations cause a significant stratospheric cooling only up to the mid-1990s, when they start to decrease because of the implementation of the Montreal Protocol. Sporadic volcanic events and the solar cycle have a distinct signature in the time series of stratospheric temperature anomalies but do not play a statistically significant role in the long-term trends from 1979 to 2014. Several factors combine to produce the step-like behavior in the stratospheric temperatures: in the lower stratosphere, the flattening starting in the mid 1990's is due to the decrease in ozone depleting substances; Mount Pinatubo and the solar cycle cause the abrupt steps through the aerosol-associated warming and the volcanically induced ozone depletion. In the middle and upper stratosphere, changes in solar irradiance are largely responsible for the step-like behavior of global temperatures anomalies, together with volcanically induced ozone depletion and water vapor increases in the post-Pinatubo years.

The ozone recovery in the NH extratropics: The trend analyses of the SBUV/SBUV-2 merged ozone data in the 1979–2012 period

Regulations of the Montreal Protocol (MP) 1987 and its subsequent amendments resulted in a decreasing tendency of the ozone depleting substances (ODS) concentration in the stratosphere since the mid 1990s after few decades of the ODS increasing tendency. The long-term changes of the stratospheric ozone might be also effected by a number of factors (e.g., anthropogenic CH4 and N2O, the stratospheric cooling due to CO2), which are not controlled by MP. A statistical model is developed to evaluate the residual long-term variability of ozone in the period 1979–2012 due to combined effect of factors other than ODS. The SBUV/SBUV-2 merged ozone data ver.8.6 including the column ozone, the ozone content in the troposphere and lower stratosphere (1013–25.45 hPa), and in the upper stratosphere (4.034–1.013 hPa) are examined for the 5 degree wide zonal belts in the 30°–80°N region. The residual trend pattern is calculated for each zonal belt, i.e., the difference between the observed long-term ozone variability having dynamical effects removed and the trend curve due to ODS changes estimated from the standard multivariate trend model. The calculations are carried out separately for the four seasons of the year. The observed long-term change in the upper stratosphere O3 follows that due to ODS changes for all seasons of the year. The trend pattern of the ozone content in the troposphere and lower stratosphere starts to differ from that forced by the ODS changes since about 2005. At the end of considered time period (2012), the ozone content in this layer appears ∼2–3% below the reference level calculated from the ODS changes. It seems that this decline is somewhat related to short-term fluctuations in the atmosphere dynamics appearing in 2011–2012.

Understanding differences in upper stratospheric ozone response to changes in chlorine and temperature as computed using CCMVal‐2 models

Projections of future ozone levels are made using models that couple a general circulation model with a representation of atmospheric photochemical processes, allowing interactions among photochemical processes, radiation, and dynamics. Such models are known as coupled chemistry‐climate models (CCMs). Although developed from common principles and subject to the same boundary conditions, simulated ozone time series vary among models for scenarios for ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and greenhouse gases. Photochemical processes control the upper stratospheric ozone level, and there is broad agreement among CCMs in that ozone increases as ODSs decrease and temperature decreases due to greenhouse gas increase. There are quantitative differences in the ozone sensitivity to chlorine and temperature. We obtain insight into differences in sensitivity by examining the relationship between the upper stratospheric seasonal cycles of ozone and temperature as produced by fourteen CCMs. All simulations conform to expectation in that ozone is less sensitive to temperature when chlorine levels are highest because chlorine catalyzed loss is nearly independent of temperature. Analysis reveals differences in simulated temperature, ozone and reactive nitrogen that lead to differences in the relative importance of ozone loss processes and are most obvious when chlorine levels are close to background. Differences in the relative importance of loss processes underlie differences in simulated sensitivity of ozone to composition change. This suggests 1) that the multimodel mean is not a best estimate of the sensitivity of upper stratospheric ozone to changes in ODSs and temperature; and 2) that the spread of values is not an appropriate measure of uncertainty.

Drivers of past and future Southern Ocean change: Stratospheric ozone versus greenhouse gas impacts

[1] We study the separate impacts of changing atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) and stratospheric ozone concentrations on past (1960–2010) and future (2010–2100) Southern Ocean conditions. To this end we employ a coupled atmosphere-ocean model with interactive stratospheric chemistry. In our model we separately prescribe i) GHGs that monotonically increase to 2100 and ii) ozone depleting substances (ODSs) that rapidly increase to a maximum in 1995 and then slowly return to 1960 values around 2100, following moderate emission scenarios. Past GHG and ODS changes in our model drive, in about equal measure in the annual mean, poleward intensified surface winds which act to strengthen the sub polar meridional ocean circulation cell and Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). Future GHG-induced oceanic changes continue nearly monotonically to 2100, while the ODS-induced ACC transport peaks, and then reverses, a couple of decades after the ODS maximum in 1995. The ODS impact on ACC transport exceeds the corresponding GHG impact up to the second quarter of the 21st century, a result that highlights the importance of often-neglected stratospheric ozone trends for the simulation of the ocean circulation.

On the attribution of stratospheric ozone and temperature changes to changes in ozone-depleting substances and well-mixed greenhouse gases

Abstract. The vertical profile of global-mean stratospheric temperature changes has traditionally represented an important diagnostic for the attribution of the cooling effects of stratospheric ozone depletion and CO2 increases. However, CO2-induced cooling alters ozone abundance by perturbing ozone chemistry, thereby coupling the stratospheric ozone and temperature responses to changes in CO2 and ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). Here we untangle the ozone-temperature coupling and show that the attribution of global-mean stratospheric temperature changes to CO2 and ODS changes (which are the true anthropogenic forcing agents) can be quite different from the traditional attribution to CO2 and ozone changes. The significance of these effects is quantified empirically using simulations from a three-dimensional chemistry-climate model. The results confirm the essential validity of the traditional approach in attributing changes during the past period of rapid ODS increases, although we find that about 10% of the upper stratospheric ozone decrease from ODS increases over the period 1975–1995 was offset by the increase in CO2, and the CO2-induced cooling in the upper stratosphere has been somewhat overestimated. When considering ozone recovery, however, the ozone-temperature coupling is a first-order effect; fully 2/5 of the upper stratospheric ozone increase projected to occur from 2010–2040 is attributable to CO2 increases. Thus, it has now become necessary to base attribution of global-mean stratospheric temperature changes on CO2 and ODS changes rather than on CO2 and ozone changes.

Changes in biologically-active ultraviolet radiation reaching the Earth’s surface

The Montreal Protocol is working. Concentrations of major ozone-depleting substances in the atmosphere are now decreasing, and the decline in total column amounts seen in the 1980s and 1990s at mid-latitudes has not continued. In polar regions, there is much greater natural variability. Each spring, large ozone holes continue to occur in Antarctica and less severe regions of depleted ozone continue to occur in the Arctic. There is evidence that some of these changes are driven by changes in atmospheric circulation rather than being solely attributable to reductions in ozone-depleting substances, which may indicate a linkage to climate change. Global ozone is still lower than in the 1970s and a return to that state is not expected for several decades. As changes in ozone impinge directly on UV radiation, elevated UV radiation due to reduced ozone is expected to continue over that period. Long-term changes in UV-B due to ozone depletion are difficult to verify through direct measurement, but there is strong evidence that UV-B irradiance increased over the period of ozone depletion. At unpolluted sites in the southern hemisphere, there is some evidence that UV-B irradiance has diminished since the late 1990s. The availability and temporal extent of UV data have improved, and we are now able to evaluate the changes in recent times compared with those estimated since the late 1920s, when ozone measurements first became available. The increases in UV-B irradiance over the latter part of the 20th century have been larger than the natural variability. There is increased evidence that aerosols have a larger effect on surface UV-B radiation than previously thought. At some sites in the Northern Hemisphere, UV-B irradiance may continue to increase because of continuing reductions in aerosol extinctions since the 1990s. Interactions between ozone depletion and climate change are complex and can be mediated through changes in chemistry, radiation, and atmospheric circulation patterns. The changes can be in both directions: ozone changes can affect climate, and climate change can affect ozone. The observational evidence suggests that stratospheric ozone (and therefore UV-B) has responded relatively quickly to changes in ozone-depleting substances, implying that climate interactions have not delayed this process. Model calculations predict that at mid-latitudes a return of ozone to pre-1980 levels is expected by the mid 21st century. However, it may take a decade or two longer in polar regions. Climate change can also affect UV radiation through changes in cloudiness and albedo, without involving ozone and since temperature changes over the 21st century are likely to be about 5 times greater than in the past century. This is likely to have significant effects on future cloud, aerosol and surface reflectivity. Consequently, unless strong mitigation measures are undertaken with respect to climate change, profound effects on the biosphere and on the solar UV radiation received at the Earth's surface can be anticipated. The future remains uncertain. Ozone is expected to increase slowly over the decades ahead, but it is not known whether ozone will return to higher levels, or lower levels, than those present prior to the onset of ozone depletion in the 1970s. There is even greater uncertainty about future UV radiation, since it will be additionally influenced by changes in aerosols and clouds.