Overlapping Generations Structure Research Articles

The budget deficit in an endogenous growth model with bequest and money holdings

By an endogenous growth model with a two-period overlapping generations structure, I examine the existence of a budget deficit in an economy that endogenously grows by investments of firms. The consumers leave bequests to their descendants and hold money as a part of their savings. I use a Barro-type utility function, where people include the utility of their children in their own utility. The main results are as follows. 1) A budget deficit is necessary for full employment under constant prices. 2) Inflation is induced if the actual budget deficit is greater than the value at which full employment is achieved under constant prices. 3) If the actual budget deficit is smaller than the value which is necessary and sufficient for full employment under constant prices, a recession occurs. Therefore, a balanced budget cannot achieve full employment under constant prices. I do not assume that the budget deficit must later be made up by a budget surplus. I use a Barro-type utility function to prove the necessity (or inevitability) of a budget deficit instead of the neutrality of government debt. In the appendix of this paper, I show that if money, as well as goods, are produced by capital and labor, a budget deficit is not necessary for full employment under constant prices.

Monetary economy and budget deficit in endogenous growth model

AbstractBy an endogenous growth model with two‐period overlapping generations structure and money holding of consumers, we examine the existence of budget deficit in an economy which endogenously grows by investments of firms. The main results are as follows. (1) Budget deficit is necessary for full employment under constant prices. (2) Inflation is induced if the actual budget deficit is greater than the value at which full employment is achieved under constant prices. (3) If the actual budget deficit is smaller than the value which is necessary and sufficient for full employment under constant prices, a recession occurs. Therefore, balanced budget cannot achieve full employment under constant prices. We do not assume that budget deficit must later be made up by budget surplus. This paper is an example of an analysis using a very simple model of the following statement by John Maynard Keynes.“Unemployment develops, that is to say, because people want the moon;—men cannot be employed when the object of desire (i.e. money) is something which cannot be produced and the demand for which cannot be readily choked off. There is no remedy but to persuade the public that green cheese is practically the same thing and to have a green cheese factory (i.e. a central bank) under public control.”In the appendix of this paper, we show that if money as well as goods are produced by capital and labor, budget deficit is not necessary for full employment under constant prices.

A tractable overlapping generations structure for quantitative DSGE models

This paper develops a novel tractable overlapping generations (OLG) structure whose aggregate equations resemble a model of an infinitely lived representative agent, except that there are no aggregate transversality conditions in the OLG economy. The main assumptions are complete markets and time-invariant (but age-dependent) consumption shares of age-groups. The tractability of the OLG structure here distinguishes it from conventional OLG models – the present structure is suitable for quantitative dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) macro models. Importantly, the OLG structure here maintains key predictions of standard OLG models, namely the possibility of low real interest rates and of equilibrium indeterminacy. • This paper develops a novel tractable overlapping generations (OLG) structure. • Aggregate equations resemble a model of an infinitely lived representative agent. • However, there are no aggregate transversality conditions in the OLG economy. • The OLG structure here is much more tractable than conventional OLG models. • Thus, the present OLG structure is suitable for quantitative DSGE macro models.

The Optimal Inflation Rate with Discount Factor Heterogeneity

AbstractI show that adding an overlapping generations structure to the canonical New Keynesian model can generate an optimal inflation rate that is significantly positive. In a baseline calibration of the model, the optimal inflation target is comprised between 0.8% and 3.2% in annual terms. In this framework, deviations from long‐run price stability are optimal because the rate at which firms discount future profit flows naturally differs from the rate at which the planner discounts future utility flows.

Monetary Policy and Asset Price Bubbles: A Laboratory Experiment

Leaning-against the-wind (LAW) policies, whereby interest rates are raised in the face of a growing asset price bubble, are often advocated as a means of dampening such bubbles. On the other hand, there are theoretical arguments suggesting that such a policy could have the opposite effect (Gal í, 2014). We study the effect of monetary policy on asset price bubbles in a laboratory experiment with an overlapping generations structure. Participants in the role of the young generation allocate their endowment between two investments: a risky asset and a one-period riskless bond. The risky asset pays no dividend and thus the possibility of selling it to the next generation is its only source of value. Consequently, its price is a pure bubble. We study how variations in the interest rate affect the evolution of the bubble in an experiment with three treatments. One treatment has a fixed low interest rate, another a fixed high interest rate, and the third has a LAW interest rate policy in place. We observe that the bubble increases (decreases) when interest rates are lower (higher) in the period of a policy change. However, the opposite effect is observed in the following period, when higher (lower) interest rates are associated with greater (smaller) bubble growth. Direct measurement of expectations reveals that traders expect prices to follow previous trends and tend to correct for prior errors in their predictions.

Credit Supply Driven Boom-Bust Cycles

Can shifts in the credit supply generate a boom-bust cycle similar to the one observed in the US around 2008? To answer this question, we develop a general equilibrium model that combines a rich heterogeneous agent overlapping-generations structure of households who make housing tenure decisions and borrow through long-term mortgages, firms that finance their working capital through short-term loans from banks, and banks whose ability to intermediate funds depends on their capital. Using a calibrated version of this framework, we find that shocks to banks’ leverage can generate sizable boom-bust cycles in the housing market, the banking sector, and the rest of the macroeconomy, which provides strong support for the credit supply channel. The deterioration of bank balance sheets during the bust, the existence of highly leveraged households, and the general equilibrium feedback from the credit supply to household labor income significantly amplify the bust. Moreover, mortgage credit growth across the income distribution is consistent with recent findings that were otherwise argued to be against the credit supply channel. A comparison of the model outcomes across credit supply, house price expectation, and productivity shocks suggests that housing busts accompanied by severe banking crises are more likely to be generated by credit supply shocks.

An overlapping generations model for monetary policy analysis

We integrate an overlapping generations structure into the standard Lagos and Wright (2005) framework and show that mild inflation can be welfare-improving. The reason behind this result is that inflation induces young agents to reduce their savings and to increase their consumption, which overpowers the utility loss of old agents. However, the beneficial effect disappears for higher inflation rates, such that the optimal inflation rate is one at an intermediate level.

Credit Supply Driven Boom-Bust Cycles

We study quantitatively how far shifts in the credit supply can generate a boom-bust cycle, similar to the one observed in the US around 2008. For this purpose, we develop a general equilibrium model that combines a rich heterogeneous agent overlapping-generations structure of households who make housing tenure decisions and borrow through long-term mortgages, firms that finance their working capital through short-term loans from banks, and banks whose ability to intermediate funds depends on their capital. Using a calibrated version of this framework, we find that shocks to banks’ leverage can generate sizable boom-bust cycles in the housing market, the banking sector, and the rest of the macro-economy, which provides strong support for the credit supply channel. The deterioration of bank balance sheets during the bust, the existence of highly leveraged households, and the general equilibrium feedback from the credit supply to household labor income significantly amplify the bust. Moreover, mortgage credit growth across the income distribution is consistent with recent findings that were otherwise argued to be against the credit supply channel. Finally, a comparison of the model outcomes across credit supply, house price expectation, and productivity shocks suggests that housing busts accompanied by severe banking crises are more likely to be generated by credit supply shocks.

Genomic selection in dairy cattle simulated populations.

Genomic selection is arguably the most promising tool for improving genetic gain in domestic animals to emerge in the last few decades, but is an expensive process. The aim of this study was to evaluate the economic impact related to the implementation of genomic selection in a simulated dairy cattle population. The software QMSim was used to simulate genomic and phenotypic data. The simulated genome contained 30 chromosomes with 100 cm each, 1666 SNPs markers equally spread and 266 QTLs randomly designated for each chromosome. The numbers of markers and QTLs were designated according to information available from Animal QTL (http://www.animalgenome.org/QTLdb) and Bovine QTL (http://bovineqtl.tamu.edu/). The allelic frequency changes were assigned in a gamma distribution with alpha parameters equal to 0·4. Recurrent mutation rates of 1·0e-4 were assumed to apply to markers and QTLs. A historic population of 1000 individuals was generated and the total number of animals was reduced gradually along 850 generations until we obtained a number of 200 animals in the last generation, characterizing a bottleneck effect. Progenies were created along generations from random mating of the male and female gametes, assuming the same proportion of both genders. Than the population was extended for another 150 generations until we obtained 17 000 animals, with only 320 male individuals in the last generation. After this period a 25 year of selection was simulated taking into account a trait limited by sex with heritability of 0·30 (i.e. milk yield), one progeny/cow/year and variance equal to 1·0. Annually, 320 bulls were mated with 16 000 dams, assuming a replacement rate of 60 and 40% for males and females, respectively. Selection and discard criteria were based in four strategies to obtain the EBVs assuming as breeding objective to maximize milk yield. The progeny replaced the discarded animals creating an overlapping generation structure. The selection strategies were: RS is selection based on random values; PS is selection based on phenotypic values; Blup is selection based on EBVs estimated by BLUP; and GEBV is selection based on genomic estimated breeding values in one step, using high (GBlup) and low (GBlupi) density panels. Results indicated that the genetic evaluation using the aid of genomic information could provide better genetic gain rates in dairy cattle breeding programs as well as reduce the average inbreeding coefficient in the population. The economic viability indicators showed that only Blup and GBlup/GBlupi strategies, the ones that used milk control and genetic evaluation were economic viable, considering a discount rate of 6·32% per year.

Lucas Island Model: A 'Case Study' for Improving Students' Skill in Interpreting Macroeconomic Models

This paper develops a teaching apparatus of Lucas's 1972 model aimed at improving students' ability to interpret the underlying structure of modern macroeconomics models. In this respect, the Lucas island model represents the perfect study, since it falls into the narrow range of mile stone modern, macroeconomic models. Our teaching apparatus adds to the Lucas island model three distinctive features. First, it replaces the overlapping generation structure with the producer-shopper distinction within the household; second, it presents the classical perfect information case as the benchmark of the analysis and, finally, introduces a money market into the model.

The growth strategy of Abenomics and fiscal consolidation

Using a general equilibrium model with an overlapping generation structure, this study examines the impacts of a new Abenomics growth strategy on fiscal consolidation in Japan. Our simulation yielded the following results. (i) It is difficult to achieve the government target of fiscal consolidation by the year 2020 even when assuming that the growth strategy has the desired effects. (ii) Moreover, further economic and fiscal reforms are required from 2030 to 2070 because of accelerated population aging. (iii) However, population policy and an extended retirement age contribute to significant improvements in Japan’s fiscal condition after 2070. (iv) In contrast, the promotion of productivity and the labor force participation rate have a lesser impact on fiscal reconstruction.

Investment horizons and asset prices under asymmetric information

I study a financial market with a generalized overlapping generations structure. Investors live for an arbitrary number of periods, and are asymmetrically informed about future dividends of a risky asset. I compare pricing moments, and the informational content of prices, across economies with different investment horizons. Horizons affect prices through two key mechanisms: as horizons increase, the age-adjusted risk aversion of the average investor falls, and the risk transfer from forced liquidators into voluntary buyers drops. For long enough horizons, there exist two equilibria: a stable, low-volatility equilibrium in which longer horizons reduce price variability and raise average prices, and an unstable, high-volatility equilibrium with the opposite properties. Along the stable equilibrium, longer horizons reduce non-fundamental price volatility and incite more aggressive trading by the informed investors, which impounds their knowledge into prices. Longer horizons thus improve market efficiency, and reduce the uncertainty of the uninformed investors. Expected returns and return volatility are similar to an economy with full-information about fundamentals, even if the informed are relatively few. For short horizons, cautious trading disaggregates information from prices, and the economy approaches one with no private information.

Borrowing Constraints, College Aid, and Intergenerational Mobility

This paper provides a consistent comparison of general tuition subsidies, need-based student aid, merit-based student aid, and income-contingent loans (ICL). Each of these policies is analyzed through a dynamic general equilibrium model in which individuals differ in family wealth and opportunities of completing college. The overlapping-generation structure of the model permits evaluation of different aid schemes in their implications on the aggregate outcomes, income distribution, and intergenerational mobility. Compared to current US tuition and loan policies, the ICL and need-based policies are most effective in promoting aggregate efficiency and income equality, while merit-based policies are least effective.

Aging, Labour Market Dynamics and Fiscal Imbalances

Population aging is a phenomenon common to all regions in the developed world, forcing most governments to implement structural reforms in order to avoid the development of fiscal imbalances. In Luxembourg, large inflows of – young – foreign workers generate an apparently sound public pension system, although no major structural reform has been implemented yet. In this paper, we study the interactions between demographic changes, labour market dynamics and public finance, by building an overlapping generations structure with New Open Macroeconomics and labour market frictions a la Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides. We calibrate the model on Luxembourg data and we show that foreign labour inflows are a palliative but not a long term solution to the fiscal consequences of aging, and that only deep – and unpopular – fiscal reforms could solve the expected deficit problem. We also show that without foreign trade, foreign labour inflows would increase the domestic unemployment rate. This underlines the need to combine in a single framework the NOEM and the search and matching approaches.

Agglomeration and demographic change

This article investigates common consequences of demographic change and economic integration for the spatial location of economic activity. In doing so, it provides a unified framework that introduces an overlapping generation structure into a New Economic Geography model. Whether integration leads to agglomeration crucially hinges on the demographic properties of economies. While population aging strengthens concentration tendencies, population growth acts as a dispersion force. This is consistent with the stylized relationships between demography and urbanization found in the data and thus allows us to assess the possibility of agglomeration in various demographic scenarios.

A Simple, Microfounded Lucas Island Model

This paper provides a version of the Lucas Island model which is both completely microfounded and suitable for teaching. By replacing the original overlapping generation structure with the producer-shopper distinction within the household and using the classical perfect information case as the benchmark of the analysis, the model presented here has two key distinctive features. First, it shows in a critical manner how the imperfect information problem actually arises. Second, it avoids a shortcut approach to modelling aggregate demand by adding a money market to the analysis.

Impact of immigration on the Japanese economy: A multi-country simulation model

To quantify the impacts of immigration and fiscal reconstruction on the Japanese economy, we present a dynamic computable general equilibrium OLG model with an overlapping generations structure. We use a total of 16 countries and regions, both including those that are industrialized, such as Japan, the US, and the EU, and developing countries, such as China, Brazil, the Philippines, and Peru. Our simulation results show that a permanent immigration flows of 150,000 will improve the Japanese economy and the welfare of current and future generations. On the other hand, a standalone increase in the consumption tax will not improve long-run welfare. The results indicate that substantially increased inflows of working-age immigrants would alleviate the need for future fiscal reform and also help to dramatically reduce the public pension burden on the working generations.

Consumption tax and economic growth in an overlapping generations model with money holdings

This paper examines the effect of a consumption tax on economic growth using an overlapping generations (OLG) model with money holdings. We show that the neutrality of the consumption tax does not hold in the money-in-the-utility-function model, because a change in consumption taxation induces the substitution of money holdings for consumption, and the money is the net wealth within the OLG structure. An increase in the consumption tax rate lowers (raises) the growth rate under a low (high) monetary expansion rate. On the other hand, in the cash-in-advance model and the money-in-the-production-function model, the neutrality of consumption taxation holds even within the OLG structure, because in these models there is no substitution of consumption and money holdings.

Do Tax Cuts Generate Twin Deficits? A Multi-Country Analysis

We study the effects of tax shocks on the budget and external deficits for 16 industrialized countries over the post-1975 period. Our structural approach is based on a tractable small open-economy model where a tax cut innovation generates a budget deficit. In turn, the budget deficit affects the external deficit by two distinct channels. The demographic channel works through the overlapping-generation structure of the model. The forecasting channel works through the dynamic structure of the model. Our empirical analysis documents that tax shocks generate significant positive comovements between the budget and external deficits. We also find that both the demographic and forecasting channels are important to explain the comovements.

The role of net foreign assets in a New Keynesian small open economy model

This paper develops a small open economy, sticky-price model that determines a unique, stable long-run asset position for households as function of their incentive to anticipate or postpone consumption and labor effort across periods. This is accomplished by adopting an overlapping-generations structure in which new households with no assets enter the economy in each period. The same characteristics of household behavior that determine long-run assets are also important determinants of the model's responses to shocks. Stabilizing producer prices results in a milder recession following a drop in world demand than stabilizing consumer prices because it prevents the markup in the pricing of goods from increasing. In addition, given an initial foreign debt, allowing consumer prices to rise causes a decrease in the ex post real interest rate on impact, lowering the interest burden of the initial debt. The differences across policy rules generated by the initial asset position are robust to changes in the latter as long as these are brought about by changes in parameter values that do not alter the fundamental characteristics of household (and firm) behavior that are also the key determinants of long-run assets.