Abstract Nowcasting hail size poses a major challenge in operational practice due to physical limitations of weather radar technology once hailstones are sufficiently large to enter the resonance scattering regime. Numerous radar-based hail size proxies have been derived in recent decades, but their performance is generally poor in identifying giant hail (≥10 cm). Using a novel thunderstorm updraft detection method, we examine the updraft characteristics of hailstorms in the U.S. Great Plains based on a NEXRAD dataset of 114 hail events between 2013 and 2023. We find that some radar-derived variables within the detected updraft are well suited for discriminating between small hail (1.0–3.0 cm) and severe hail (≥3.5 cm), e.g., minimum copolar cross-correlation coefficient in the midlevel updraft, whereas other radar metrics such as the area of reflectivity > 50 dBZ in the upper portion of the updraft suggest the presence of giant hail. However, the statistical distributions of each variable overlap for different hail sizes, and there is no single metric which performs well across the entire hail size spectrum. Therefore, we trained a random forest model to nowcast hail size categories using a multitude of these radar metrics. The model shows promising performance for discriminating hail sizes > 5 cm but requires further refinement for smaller hail. We showcase the model’s capabilities for a set of hailstorms in the Great Plains. Significance Statement Large hail, which may reach sizes up to 20 cm in extreme cases, is a severe threat in thunderstorms and responsible for significant damage in thunderstorm-prone areas around the world. Weather radars are generally used for issuing warnings for the threat of large hail, but it is surprisingly difficult to apply their data to distinguish between hail sizes. We utilize a new approach that detects the thunderstorm updraft region, which is where hailstones grow, and analyze the radar data therein. Based on these data, we then develop a model for assessing hail sizes that could be used for warnings and illustrate the model results for six hailstorms.
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