Overall Survival In Elderly Patients Research Articles

Prognostic impact of muscle mass loss in elderly patients with oesophageal cancer receiving neoadjuvant chemoradiation therapy.

We aimed to identify the impact of muscle mass on locally advanced oesophageal cancer (LAEC) in elderly patients receiving neoadjuvant chemoradiation therapy (NACRT). We reviewed the medical records of 345 patients diagnosed with LAEC who underwent NACRT and surgery. Physical variables, including height, weight, skeletal muscle mass, and laboratory values, were obtained before and after NACRT. Body mass index (BMI, kg/m2), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), and prognostic nutritional index (PNI) were calculated as height/(weight)2, ANC/ALC, platelet count/ALC, and (10×albumin+0.05×ALC), respectively. The cutoff for low muscle mass was 43.0cm2/m2 for BMI below 25kg/m2 and 53.0cm2/m2 for BMI 25kg/m2 or higher. The skeletal muscle index (SMI) was defined as skeletal muscle area/(height)2 (cm2/m2). The ΔSMI (%/50days) was defined as (SMI after NACRT-SMI before NACRT)/interval (days)×50 (days) to compare changes over the same period. The excessive muscle loss (EML) group was defined as patients with ΔSMI ≤-10% following NACRT. An elderly patient was defined as aged ≥65years. The primary outcome measure was overall survival (OS). During a median follow-up of 32.8months (range, 2.0-176.2), 192 patients died, with a median OS of 50.2months. Elderly patients did not show inferior OS (young vs. elderly, 57.7% vs. 54.0% at 3years, P=0.247). 71.0% and 87.2% of all patients had low muscle mass before and after NACRT, respectively, which was not associated with OS (P=0.270 and P=0.509, respectively). Inflammatory (NLR and PLR) and nutritional index (PNI) values or their changes did not correlate with OS. However, the EML group had worse OS (41.6% vs. 63.2% at 3years, P<0.0001). In the multivariate analysis, EML was also a significant prognostic factor for OS. In the subgroup analysis by age, EML was a strong prognostic factor for OS in the elderly group. The 3-year OS was 36.8% in the EML group and 64.9% in the non-EML group (P<0.0001) in elderly patients, and 47.4% and 62.1% (P=0.063) in the young patients. In multivariate analysis of each subgroup, EML remained prognostic only in the elderly group (P=0.008). EML may be strongly associated with a deteriorated OS in elderly patients undergoing NACRT, followed by surgery for LAEC. The strategies for decreasing muscle loss in these patients should be investigated.

Development and validation of survival nomograms in elder triple-negative invasive ductal breast carcinoma patients

ABSTRACT Background We aimed to develop a nomogram to predict the overall survival of elderly patients with Triple-negative invasive ductal breast carcinoma (TNIDC). Research design and methods 12165 elderly patients with nonmetastatic TNIDC were retrieved from the SEER database from 2010 to 2019 and were randomly assigned to training and validation cohorts. Stepwise Cox regression analysis was used to select variables for the nomogram based on the training cohort. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were used to calculate the correlation between variables and prognosis of the patients. Survival analysis was performed for high- and low-risk subgroups based on risk score. Results Eleven predictive factors were identified to construct our nomograms. Compared with the TNM stage, the discrimination of the nomogram revealed good prognostic accuracy and clinical applicability as indicated by C-index values of 0.741 (95% CI 0.728–0.754) against 0.708 (95% CI 0.694–0.721) and 0.765 (95% CI 0.747–0.783) against 0.725 (95% CI 0.705–0.744) for the training and validation cohorts, respectively. Differences in OS were also observed between the high- and low-risk groups (p < 0.001). Conclusion The proposed nomogram provides a convenient and reliable tool for individual evaluations for elderly patients with M0_stage TNIDC. However, the model may only for Americans.

Abstract B017: Disease free survival as a predictor of overall survival in patients with high-risk endometrial cancer receiving adjuvant chemotherapy

Abstract Introduction: Disease-free survival (DFS) is often evaluated as a primary endpoint in early settings for several cancers, including endometrial cancer (EC). However, the role of DFS as a potential predictor of overall survival (OS) in EC is unknown. Elucidating the association between DFS and OS in EC is critical for contextualizing findings from trials where DFS is a primary endpoint, such as KEYNOTE-B21, which assesses the effect of treatment with pembrolizumab + adjuvant chemotherapy (CTX) vs. adjuvant CTX, with or without radiotherapy in patients with EC at high risk of recurrence. This real-world study assessed the association between DFS and OS and the impact of recurrence on OS in elderly patients with EC at high risk of recurrence receiving adjuvant CTX. Methods: SEER-Medicare data (2007–2019) were used to identify patients with EC at high risk of recurrence who received adjuvant CTX with or without radiotherapy. Patients were defined as high risk of recurrence if they had either Stage I or II EC with non-endometroid histology or Stage III or IVA EC with any histology. An EC recurrence was defined as having a diagnosis with a distinct secondary cancer &amp;gt;90 days after end of adjuvant CTX or receipt of additional cancer treatment &amp;gt;90 days after end of adjuvant CTX. Kaplan-Meier (KM) analyses were used to estimate OS (time from initiation of adjuvant therapy [index date] to death) and DFS (time from index date to earliest of recurrence or death). The correlation between DFS and OS was assessed using Kendall’s τ rank correlation. Landmark analyses were used to compare OS between patients with vs. without a recurrence at 1-, 3-, and 5-years post the index date; hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using adjusted Cox models. KM analyses were used to estimate OS from a recurrence (index date) for recurrent patients and from an imputed index date (using frequency matching) for non-recurrent patients. Results: Of 794 eligible patients, 253 (31.9%) experienced a recurrence over a median follow up of 3.6 years. Median age at diagnosis was 71.9 years, 69.8% had stage I/II disease, and 86.6% had non-endometrioid carcinoma. Median OS was not reached (5-year OS: 72.5%) and median DFS was 7.9 years (5-year DFS: 58.7%). A significant positive correlation between DFS and OS was observed (Kendall’s τ =0.83; 95% CI: 0.79–0.86; p&amp;lt;0.001). Patients with a recurrence had significantly higher risk of death than those without, at landmark points 1- (HR: 4.4; 95% CI: 2.8–7.0; p&amp;lt;.001), 3- (HR: 5.2; 95% CI: 3.1–8.7; p&amp;lt;.001), and 5-years (HR: 5.1; 95% CI: 2.2–11.7; p&amp;lt;.001). Patients with a recurrence had significantly shorter median OS than those without (median OS: 1.4 years vs. not reached; p&amp;lt;.001). Conclusions: In elderly patients with EC at high risk of recurrence who received adjuvant CTX, DFS was strongly correlated with OS and having a recurrence was associated with significantly higher risk of death. Our findings suggest that DFS is a strong predictor of OS in this population and may be a useful surrogate endpoint. Citation Format: Kalé Kponee-Shovein, Vimalanand S. Prabhu, Yan Song, Lei Chen, Mu Cheng, Yeran Li, Yezhou Sun, Annalise Hilts, Qi Hua, Jasmine Lichfield, Linda Duska. Disease free survival as a predictor of overall survival in patients with high-risk endometrial cancer receiving adjuvant chemotherapy [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the AACR Special Conference on Endometrial Cancer: Transforming Care through Science; 2023 Nov 16-18; Boston, Massachusetts. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Clin Cancer Res 2024;30(5_Suppl):Abstract nr B017.

Machine Learning-Based Nomogram for Predicting Overall Survival in Elderly Patients with Cirrhotic Hepatocellular Carcinoma Undergoing Ablation Therapy.

The aim of the study is to identify and evaluate multifaceted factors impacting the survival of elderly cirrhotic HCC patients following ablation therapy, with the goal of constructing a nomogram to predict their 3-, 5-, and 8-year overall survival (OS). A retrospective analysis was conducted on 736 elderly cirrhotic HCC patients who underwent ablation therapy between 2014 and 2022. LASSO regression, random survival forest (RSF), and multivariate Cox analyses were employed to identify independent prognostic factors for OS, followed by the development and validation of a predictive nomogram. Harrell's concordance index (C-index), calibration plot and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to assess the performance of the nomogram. The nomogram was finally utilized to stratify patients into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups, aiming to assess its efficacy in precisely discerning individuals with diverse overall survival outcomes. Alcohol drinking, tumor number, globulin (Glob) and prealbumin (Palb) were identified and integrated to establish a novel prognostic nomogram. The nomogram exhibited strong discriminative ability with C-indices of 0.723 (training cohort) and 0.693 (validation cohort), along with significant Area Under the Curve (AUC) values for 3-year, 5-year, and 8-year OS in both cohorts (0.758, 0.770, and 0.811 for training cohort; 0.744, 0.699 and 0.737 for validation cohort). Calibration plots substantiated its consistency, while DCA curves corroborated its clinical utility. The nomogram further demonstrated exceptional effectiveness in discerning distinct risk populations, highlighting its robust applicability for prognostic stratification. Our study successfully developed and validated a robust nomogram model based on four key clinical parameters for predicting 3-, 5- and 8-year OS among elderly cirrhotic HCC patients following ablation therapy. The nomogram exhibited a remarkable capability in identifying high-risk patients, furnishing clinicians with invaluable insights for postoperative surveillance and tailored therapeutic interventions.

A prognostic nomogram integrating carcinoembryonic antigen levels for predicting overall survival in elderly patients with stage II-III colorectal cancer.

With the aging of the population, colorectal surgeons will have to face more elderly colorectal cancer (CRC) patients in the future. We aim to analyze independent risk factors affecting overall survival in elderly (age ≥65 years) patients with stage II-III CRC and construct a nomogram to predict patient survival. A total of 3,016 elderly CRC patients with stage II-III were obtained from the SEER database. Univariate Cox regression and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analyses were used to screen independent prognostic factors, and a survival prediction nomogram was constructed based on the results. The consistency index (C-index), decision curve analysis (DCA), Akaike information criterion (AIC), and Bayesian information criterion (BIC) were used to compare the predictive ability between the nomogram and tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) stage system. All patients were classified into high-risk and low-risk groups based on risk scores calculated by nomogram. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to compare the survival differences between two groups. The 3- and 5-year area under the curve (AUC) values of the prediction nomogram model were 76.6% and 74.8%, respectively. The AIC, BIC, and C-index values of the nomogram model were 6,032.502, 15,728.72, and 0.707, respectively, which were better than the TNM staging system. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed a significant survival difference between high-risk and low-risk groups (P<0.0001). We constructed a prediction nomogram for stage II-III elderly CRC patients by combining pre-treatment carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) levels, which can accurately predict patient survival. This facilitates clinicians to accurately assess patient prognosis and identify high-risk patients to adopt more aggressive and effective treatment strategies.

Prognostic significance of surgery and radiotherapy in elderly patients with localized prostate cancer: establishing and time-based external validation a nomogram from SEER-based study

ObjectiveProstate cancer (PC) is a significant disease affecting men’s health worldwide. More than 60% of patients over 65 years old and more than 80% are diagnosed with localized PC. The current choice of treatment modalities for localized PC and whether overtreatment is controversial. Therefore, we wanted to construct a nomogram to predict the risk factors associated with cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) in elderly patients with localized PC while assessing the survival differences in surgery and radiotherapy for elderly patients with localized PC.MethodsData of patients with localized PC over 65 years were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression models were used to determine independent risk factors for CSS and OS. Nomograms predicting CSS and OS were built using multivariate Cox regression models. The consistency index (C-index), the area under the subject operating characteristic curve (AUC), and the calibration curve were used to test the accuracy and discrimination of the prediction model. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to test the potential clinical value of this model.ResultsA total of 90,434 patients over 65 years and diagnosed with localized PC from 2010 to 2018 were included in the study. All patients were randomly assigned to the training set (n = 63,328) and the validation set (n = 27,106). Univariate and multivariate Cox regression model analysis showed that age, race, marriage, T stage, surgical, radiotherapy, prostate-specific antigen (PSA), and Gleason score (GS) were independent risk factors for predicting CSS in elderly patients with localized PC. Age, race, marriage, surgery, radiotherapy, PSA, and GS were independent risk factors for predicting OS in elderly patients with localized PC. The c-index of the training and validation sets for the predicted CSS is 0.802(95%CI:0.788–0.816) and 0.798(95%CI:0.776–0.820, respectively). The c-index of the training and validation sets for predicting OS is 0.712(95%:0.704–0.720) and 0.724(95%:0.714–0.734). It shows that the nomograms have excellent discriminatory ability. The AUC and the calibration curves also show good accuracy and discriminability.ConclusionWe have developed new nomograms to predict CSS and OS in elderly patients with localized PC. After internal validation and external temporal validation with reasonable accuracy, reliability and potential clinical value, the model can be used for clinically assisted decision-making.

A Comprehensive Model for Predicting 1-Year Survival after Allogeneic Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation in Older Patients

Background: As the number of elderly patients referred to and undergoing allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (alloHCT) continues to rise, there is a growing need for a comprehensive risk assessment model to accurately predict transplantation outcomes in this specific patient population. The widely used Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation-specific Comorbidity Index (HCT-CI) does not fully capture factors influencing transplant outcomes in elderly patients. This study aims to enhance risk stratification for elderly patients undergoing alloHCT by integrating additional functional, nutritional, and clinical indicators. Methods: This is a retrospective study utilizing the data registry of HCT patients who received their treatment at UF Health Cancer Center. The inclusion criteria included all patients age &amp;gt; 65 years, who underwent their first alloHSCT between January 2012 and December 2022, regardless of graft type, conditioning regimen, donor type, or graft source. Patient data were extracted through chart review. The primary endpoint was 1-year Overall Survival (OS). Prognostic significance of each variable was assessed using Cox proportional hazard models. We subsequently used all variables to build a comprehensive prediction model to assess 1-year survival outcomes in elderly patients undergoing alloHCT. The predictive model's performance was measured by the Concordance-statistic (c-statistic). Results: A total of 69 patients satisfied the inclusion criteria and were included in the analysis. Median age was 69 years (range 66-81) and 65.2% were male. Unrelated donors were used in 66.6% of patients, while the remainder received grafts from related donors. Most patients received peripheral blood stem cell grafts (91%). Myeloid malignancies comprised the most common indication for alloHCT in this group of patients (89.8%). 59.4% had abnormal cytogenetics. 35 variables were considered in the analysis. In the univariate analysis, variables with impact on 1-year OS post-transplant included creatinine (HR 3.35, CI 1.62-6.91, p=0.001), blood urea nitrogen (HR 1.03, CI 1.01-1.06, p=0.007), estimated glomerular filtration rate (HR 0.93, CI 0.89-0.93, p=0.001), hemoglobin (HR 0.8, CI 0.66-0.97, p=0.02), abnormal cytogenetics (HR 2.27, CI 1.20-4.31, p=0.012) and high and very high disease risk index (HR 0.51, CI 0.27-0.98, p=0.04). Notably, both hemoglobin and cytogenetics demonstrated a c-statistic greater than 0.6 in the univariate analysis. In the multivariate analysis, variables impacting 1-year OS included hemoglobin (HR 0.69, CI 0.48-0.99, p=0.04), remission status at the time of transplant i.e., not reached (NR) vs complete remission 1 (CR1) (HR 0.05, CI 0.00-0.71, p=0.027), and abnormal cytogenetics (HR 7.55, CI 2.32-24.58, p=0.001). Interestingly, the HCT-CI did not significantly impact 1-year OS in the univariate analysis (c-statistic 0.51, HR 0.99, CI 0.85-1.15, p=0.896). Our prediction model showed good performance with a mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.82. Conclusion: We developed a comprehensive prediction model to assess 1-year OS in elderly patients undergoing alloHCT to overcome some of the limitations of the HCT-CI in this unique age group. This model holds potential to enhance decision-making regarding candidacy for elderly patients undergoing alloHCT.

Effect of adjuvant radiotherapy after breast-conserving surgery in elder women with early-stage breast cancer: a propensity-score matching analysis.

The study aimed to explore the role of adjuvant radiotherapy (RT) after breast-conserving surgery (BCS) in elder women with early-stage breast cancer (BC). BC patients with 70-79 years of age, stage T1-2N0-1M0, undergoing BCS were screened in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database between 2010 and 2015. The clinicopathological characteristics were balanced with propensity-score matching (PSM) method. Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox regression analyses were performed to determine the impact of adjuvant RT on BC patients. Ultimately, 12,310 patients treated with adjuvant RT and 4837 patients treated with no RT, were involved in the analysis. Overall, patients treated with adjuvant RT was associated with a better breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS) (HR: 1.980 [1.596- 2.456], P < 0.001) and overall survival (OS) (HR: 2.214 [1.966- 2.494], P < 0.001) than those who did not undergo RT. After 1:1 PSM, adjuvant RT still performed advantage in both BCSS (HR: 1.918 [1.439- 2.557], P < 0.001) and OS (HR: 2.235 [1.904- 2.624], P < 0.001). In the multivariate COX analysis of BCSS, widowed, divorced and separated patients, tumor grade III, T2 stage, N1 stage, no RT, molecular subtypes with luminal B and triple negative were associated with a shorter BCSS (P < 0.05). In the multivariate COX analysis of OS, age ≥74 years, widowed, divorced and separated patients, tumor grade II/III, T2 stage, no RT, no chemotherapy, molecular subtypes with triple negative were associated with a shorter OS (P < 0.05). Furthermore, the advantages of adjuvant RT were observed in all subgroup analysis. Adjuvant RT after BCS can improve both BCSS and OS in elderly patients with early-stage BC. Additionally, all subgroups analysis-derived BCSS and OS were in support of RT.

Pretreatment Modified Glasgow Prognostic Score for Predicting Prognosis and Survival in Elderly Patients with Gastric Cancer Treated with Perioperative FLOT.

The adverse effects of chemotherapy are more apparent in elderly patients and lead to worse prognosis and mortality. Identifying immunonutritional risk factors is of great importance in terms of treatment effectiveness, prognosis, and mortality in geriatric oncology. The modified Glasgow prognostic score (mGPS) is an immunonutritional index based on serum CRP and albumin levels. In this study, we aimed to investigate the role of mGPS in predicting prognosis and survival in elderly patients with gastric cancer receiving perioperative FLOT treatment. We retrospectively enrolled 71 patients aged over 65 years and grouped them according to their pretreatment mGPS score. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analysis showed overall survival was significantly worse in the mGPS 1 and mGPS 2 groups than in the mGPS 0 group (p = 0.005 and p < 0.001, respectively). Compared to the mGPS 0 group, the mGPS 1 group had a 6.25 times greater risk of death (95% CI: 1.61-24.28, p = 0.008), and the mGPS 2 group had a 6.59 times greater risk of death (95% CI: 2.08-20.85, p = 0.001). High BMI was identified as a significant risk factor for being in the mGPS 2 group (OR: 1.20, 95% CI: 1.018-1.425, p = 0.030). In conclusion, elevated pretreatment mGPS was associated with poor overall survival in elderly patients with gastric cancer treated with perioperative FLOT therapy. As such, pretreatment mGPS can be a simple and useful tool to predict mortality in this specific patient group.

The efficacy of treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma in elderly patients.

Despite the increasing proportion of elderly patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) over time, treatment efficacy in this population is not well established. Data collected from the Korean Primary Liver Cancer Registry, a representative cohort of patients newly diagnosed with HCC in Korea between 2008 and 2017, were analyzed. Overall survival (OS) according to tumor stage and treatment modality was compared between elderly and non-elderly patients with HCC. Among 15,186 study patients, 5,829 (38.4%) were elderly. A larger proportion of elderly patients did not receive any treatment for HCC than non-elderly patients (25.2% vs. 16.7%). However, OS was significantly better in elderly patients who received treatment compared to those who did not (median, 38.6 vs. 22.3 months; P<0.001). In early-stage HCC, surgery yielded significantly lower OS in elderly patients compared to non-elderly patients (median, 97.4 vs. 138.0 months; P<0.001), however, local ablation (median, 82.2 vs. 105.5 months) and transarterial therapy (median, 42.6 vs. 56.9 months) each provided comparable OS between the two groups after inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) analysis (all P>0.05). After IPTW, in intermediate-stage HCC, surgery (median, 66.0 vs. 90.3 months) and transarterial therapy (median, 36.5 vs. 37.2 months), and in advanced-stage HCC, transarterial (median, 25.3 vs. 26.3 months) and systemic therapy (median, 25.3 vs. 26.3 months) yielded comparable OS between the elderly and non-elderly HCC patients (all P>0.05). Personalized treatments tailored to individual patients can improve the prognosis of elderly patients with HCC to a level comparable to that of non-elderly patients.

Nomogram for prognosis of elderly patients with cervical cancer who receive combined radiotherapy

This retrospective study identified prognostic factors to help guide the clinical treatment of elderly patients (≥ 65 years) with cervical cancer who had undergone radiotherapy. A personalized model to predict 3- and 5-years survival was developed. A review was conducted of 367 elderly women with cervical cancer (staged II–III) who had undergone radiotherapy in our hospital between January 2012 and December 2016. The Cox proportional hazards regression model was used for survival analysis that considered age, hemoglobin, squamous cell carcinoma antigen, pathologic type, stage, pelvic lymph node metastasis status, and others. A nomogram was constructed to predict the survival rates. The median follow-up time was 71 months (4–118 months). The 3- (5-) years overall, progression-free, local recurrence-free, and distant metastasis-free survival rates were, respectively, 91.0% (84.4%), 92.3% (85.9%), 99.18% (99.01%), and 99.18% (97.82%). The following were significant independent prognostic factors for overall survival: tumor size, pre-treatment hemoglobin, chemotherapy, and pelvic lymph node metastasis. The C-index of the line chart was 0.699 (95% CI 0.652–0.746). The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves for 3- and 5-years survival were 0.751 and 0.724. The nomogram was in good concordance with the actual survival rates. The independent prognostic factors for overall survival in elderly patients with cervical cancer after radiotherapy were: tumor size, pre-treatment hemoglobin, chemotherapy, and pelvic lymph node metastasis. The novel prognostic nomogram based on these factors showed good concordance with the actual survival rates and can be used to guide personalized clinical treatment.

Acceleration of sarcopenia in elderly patients who develop asymptomatic pneumonia shadow within one year after surgery for early gastric cancer

BackgroundAlthough early gastric cancer is curable with local treatment, the overall survival in elderly patients did not reach 80% at five years after surgery. The major cause of death in elderly patients with early gastric cancer is not cancer itself but is related to postoperative sarcopenia. Elderly patients frequently develop postoperative asymptomatic pneumonia shadow, which is associated with a poor prognosis. However, why asymptomatic pneumonia shadow worsens the prognosis remains unclear. We investigated whether sarcopenia is accelerated in patients who developed asymptomatic pneumonia shadow.MethodsWe retrospectively examined patients of > 75 years of age who underwent R0 gastrectomy for gastric cancer and were diagnosed with T1 disease at National Cancer Center Hospital between 2005 and 2012. The diagnosis of asymptomatic pneumonia shadow was defined by diagnostic findings of pneumonia (consolidation type, reticular type, and nodular type) which were newly observed on chest computed tomography performed one year after surgery in comparison to preoperative computed tomography. Postoperative muscle loss was assessed by a computed tomography-based analysis using the L3 skeletal muscle index before and two years after surgery and the rate of decrease was calculated. Patients were classified into two groups according to the rate of decrease (cut-off value: 10%).ResultsOf the 3412 patients who underwent gastrectomy in our hospital during the study period, 142 were included in this study. Asymptomatic pneumonia shadow was found in 26 patients (18%). Patients who developed asymptomatic pneumonia shadow showed a significantly greater loss of muscle volume in comparison to patients who did not develop asymptomatic pneumonia shadow. In the multivariate analysis, total gastrectomy and asymptomatic pneumonia shadow were the independent risk factors for severe muscle loss. However, there was no significant difference in prognosis between the two groups.ConclusionsSarcopenia was accelerated in elderly patients who developed asymptomatic pneumonia shadow after surgery for early gastric cancer. However, the poor prognosis in these patients may not be related to accelerated sarcopenia.

A nomogram for individually predicting overall survival for elderly patients with early breast cancer: a consecutive cohort study.

Elderly patients with breast cancer are highly heterogeneous, and tumor load and comorbidities affect patient prognosis. Prediction models can help clinicians to implement tailored treatment plans for elderly patients with breast cancer. This study aimed to establish a prediction model for breast cancer, including comorbidities and tumor characteristics, in elderly patients with breast cancer. All patients were ≥65 years old and admitted to the Peking Union Medical College Hospital. The clinical and pathological characteristics, recurrence, and death were observed. Overall survival (OS) was analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier curve and a prediction model was constructed using Cox proportional hazards model regression. The discriminative ability and calibration of the nomograms for predicting OS were tested using concordance (C)-statistics and calibration plots. Clinical utility was demonstrated using decision curve analysis (DCA). Based on 2,231 patients, the 5- and 10-year OS was 91.3% and 78.4%, respectively. We constructed an OS prediction nomogram for elderly patients with early breast cancer (PEEBC). The C-index for OS in PEEBC in the training and validation cohorts was 0.798 and 0.793, respectively. Calibration of the nomogram revealed a good predictive capability, as indicated by the calibration plot. DCA demonstrated that our model is clinically useful. The nomogram accurately predicted the 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year OS in elderly patients with early breast cancer.

Conditional survival of elderly primary central nervous system lymphoma.

Recent studies have reported that overall survival of elderly patients with primary central nervous system lymphoma (PCNSL), who have the highest incidence of this disease, had failed to benefit from the advancements in treatment strategies over the past decades. This highlights the necessity for intensified research to guide treatment decisions for this specific patient population. The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program of the National Cancer Institute (NCI) was used to extract data of elderly PCNSL patients (age ≥ 60) who were divided into training and validation groups at the ratio of 7:3, for our analysis. Conditional survival [CS(y|x)] was defined as the probability at survival additional y years given that the patient had not died of PCNSL at a specified period of time (x years) after initial diagnosis. The CS pattern of elderly PCNSL patients was analyzed. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression and multivariate Cox regression analysis were applied to develop a novel CS-based nomogram. A total of 3315 elderly patients diagnosed with CNS lymphoma between 2000 and 2019 were extracted from the SEER database, of whom 2320 patients were divided into the training group and 995 into the internal validation group. CS analysis revealed a noteworthy escalation in the 5-year survival rate among elderly PCNSL patients for every additional year of survival. The rates progressed from an initial 21-49%, 63%, and 75%, culminating in an impressive 88% and the survival improvement over time was nonlinear. The LASSO regression identified nine predictors and multivariate Cox regression was used to successfully construct the CS-based nomogram model with favorable prediction performance. CS of elderly PCNSL patients was dynamic and increased over time. Our newly-established CS-based nomogram can provide a real-time dynamic survival estimation, allowing clinicians to better guide treatment decision for these patients.

Thyroid dysfunction and immune checkpoint inhibitors: Effect on survival in elderly patients.

e24020 Background: Aging inevitably leads to an accumulation of senescent cells, and immune system cells aren't an exception. They can contribute to a pro-inflammatory state and be involved in the immune escape of cancer cells through a boosted PD-L1 expression. Immunocheckpoint inhibitors (ICIs) represent the standard of care in several cancer histotypes, and immune-related adverse events (irAEs) seem to be associated with better outcomes. ICIs represent a valid therapeutic agent in elderly patients too. However, there is a lack of data on irAEs and outcomes correlation in this subgroup of patients. This retrospective-prospective study aims to evaluate the relationship between thyroid dysfunction and progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) in elderly patients undergoing ICIs. Methods: From January 2019 to January 2023, we retrospectively collected data from 65 elderly patients under treatment with ICIs at the Medical Oncology Unit of the University Hospital and University of Cagliari, Italy. All patients were affected by stage IV disease. The primary endpoint was PFS and the secondary endpoint was overall survival OS. Statistical analyses were performed using the MedCalc Statistical Software Version 20.216. Results: The median age was 76 (± 5,5); 15.38% were female, whereas 84.62% were male. The histologies were: melanoma (26.9%), lung cancer (48.0%), kidney cancer (15.3%), and colorectal cancer (9.8%). Compared to those without thyroid dysfunction during immunotherapy treatment, individuals with thyroid irAE had, at univariate analysis, longer median PFS (68 versus 26 months, p = 0.02, CI 95% 18.0-68.0, HR 0.29 0.10-0.83) and longer median OS (59 versus 39 months, p = 0.04, CI 95% 25.0-90.0 HR 0.50 0.25-0.99). Conclusions: In an era where biomarkers for immunotherapeutic agents are lacking, thyroid dysfunction irAE could be a predictive factor of better PFS and OS in elderly patients affected by cancer of various histology.

A Retrospective Study on the Efficacy and Safety of Idarubicin Combined with High-Dose Cytarabine Consolidation in Patients with Acute Myeloid Leukemia over 60 Years of Age in First Remission

To evaluate the efficacy and safety of idarubicin combined with high-dose cytarabine as a post-remission therapy for elderly patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML). From November 2017 to June 2021, 24 AML patients aged ≥60 years who were in complete remission for the first time were enrolled in consolidation chemotherapy with idarubicin (10 mg/m2 intravenously once for day 1) combined with high-dose cytarabine (1.5 g/m2 intravenously over 3 hours every 12 hours for day 1-3), and the efficacy and safety were observed. Among the 24 patients, there were 12 males and 12 females, the median age was 65 (60-78) years old, and the median follow-up time was 23.3 (2-42.7) months. By the end of the follow-up, 15 patients relapsed and 11 patients died. The median disease-free survival (DFS) was 9 months and there were 3 cases of 2-year DFS. The median overall survival (OS) was 16.2 months, and there were 4 cases of 2-year OS. In terms of safety, 6 patients had grade 1-2 non-hematological adverse reactions, 12 patients had grade 3-4 hematological adverse reactions, and a total of 6 patients developed infection after consolidation chemotherapy. Multivariate analysis showed that two induction cycles and high-risk cytogenetic abnormalities were the adverse factors of DFS and OS in elderly patients with AML in this study. For AML patients ≥60 years old in first complete remission, idarubicin combined with high-dose cytarabine as post-remission therapy has a better safety, but compared with other regimens does not improve the prognosis of elderly patients, which needs further exploration.

A web-based prediction model for overall survival of elderly patients with epithelial ovarian cancer: A population-based study.

e17570 Background: Epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) has been extensively studied. However, no prediction model has been carried out on the prognosis of elderly patients. Our study aims to explore survival patterns in elderly EOC patients. Methods: Data were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Patients over 65 with EOC between 2004 and 2014 were included for model training and validation, while 2015 for external validation. COX proportional-hazards regression model was used to identify risk factors and applied them to the prediction model. We then evaluated performance of our model through receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA). Risk stratification system was used to reflect the survival. To facilitate daily use, we developed an online application. Results: A total of 6141 patients were included. COX regression models indicated 10 independent risk factors. Our model was proved to have good performance with AUC of ROC curve: 0.768(95CI:0.749-0.788), 0.748 (95CI:0.733-0.763), 0.766 (95CI:0.750-0.781) for 1-, 3-, 5-year OS in the training cohort and 0.776 (95CI:0.757-0.796), 0.760 (95CI:0.745-0.775), 0.784 (95CI:0.769-0.799) for CSS. In the validation cohort, 0.800 (95CI:0.773-0.827), 0.770 (95CI:0.748-0.793), 0.787 (95CI:0.765-0.810) for OS and 0.808 (95CI:0.780-0.836), 0.780 (95CI:0.758-0.803), 0.801 (95CI:0.779-0.824) for CSS. In the risk stratification system, the low-risk group had the highest survival rate. Almost all patients in the low- and intermediate-risk groups underwent surgery, about 1/3 patients in the high-risk group did not receive surgery. Their survival rates were not optimistic, and patients over 85 were more likely to be classified as high-risk. Conclusions: A predictive model was constructed to evaluate survival for elderly EOC patients and demonstrated good predictive value that we can apply to help physicians make clinical decisions and plan treatment. [Table: see text]

Gastric gastrointestinal stromal tumors and overall survival in elderly patients.

e23516 Background: The purpose of this study is to analyze the overall survival (OS) of various age groups of patients diagnosed with gastric gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST). Methods: We compared 4 different age groups ( &lt; 50 years old, 50-64 years old, 65-79 years old, and 80 or greater) comprising 230 patients in terms of various clinicopathological parameters and OS from January 2010 to December 2020 within Kaiser Permanente Northern California (KPNC), using Kaplan-Meier curves, and Cox proportional hazard regression model. Results: Univariate analysis showed that mitosis greater 10 HPF was a statistically significant predictor of decreased OS from gastric GIST (p = .032). Although necrosis alone was not significant (p = .271), the combination with higher mitotic rate was significant (p = .025). Octogenarians with gastric GIST were more likely to present with bleeding, with a 5.3% ninety-day surgical mortality rate. Multivariate Cox regression showed that patients 80 years of age or greater had decreased OS when compared to the other age groups ( p= .002). Conclusions: Gastric GIST mitotic rate is significant in term of overall survival across all age groups and the combination with necrosis portends decreased overall survival. Patients over 80 have a decreased overall survival and require additional vigilance in the early peri-operative period.

Elderly patients over 80 years undergoing colorectal cancer resection: Development and validation of a predictive nomogram for survival.

Surgery remains the primary treatment for localized colorectal cancer (CRC). Improving surgical decision-making for elderly CRC patients necessitates an accurate predictive tool. To build a nomogram to predict the overall survival of elderly patients over 80 years undergoing CRC resection. Two hundred and ninety-five elderly CRC patients over 80 years undergoing surgery at Singapore General Hospital between 2018 and 2021 were identified from the American College of Surgeons - National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP) database. Prognostic variables were selected using univariate Cox regression, and clinical feature selection was performed by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression. A nomogram for 1- and 3-year overall survival was constructed based on 60% of the study cohort and tested on the remaining 40%. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated using the concordance index (C-index), area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and calibration plots. Risk groups were stratified using the total risk points derived from the nomogram and the optimal cut-off point. Survival curves were compared between the high- and low-risk groups. Eight predictors: Age, Charlson comorbidity index, body mass index, serum albumin level, distant metastasis, emergency surgery, postoperative pneumonia, and postoperative myocardial infarction, were included in the nomogram. The AUC values for the 1-year survival were 0.843 and 0.826 for the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The AUC values for the 3-year survival were 0.788 and 0.750 for the training and validation cohorts, respectively. C-index values of the training cohort (0.845) and validation cohort (0.793) suggested the excellent discriminative ability of the nomogram. Calibration curves demonstrated a good consistency between the predictions and actual observations of overall survival in both training and validation cohorts. A significant difference in overall survival was seen between elderly patients stratified into low- and high-risk groups (P < 0.001). We constructed and validated a nomogram predicting 1- and 3-year survival probability in elderly patients over 80 years undergoing CRC resection, thereby facilitating holistic and informed decision-making among these patients.

Individualized assessment predictive models for risk and overall survival in elderly patients of primary kidney cancer with bone metastases: A large population-based study.

Elderly people are at high risk of metastatic kidney cancer (KC), and, the bone is one of the most common metastatic sites for metastatic KC. However, studies on diagnostic and prognostic prediction models for bone metastases (BM) in elderly KC patients are still vacant. Therefore, it is necessary to establish new diagnostic and prognostic nomograms. We downloaded the data of all KC patients aged more than 65 years during 2010-2015 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to study independent risk factors of BM in elderly KC patients. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis for the study of independent prognostic factors in elderly KCBM patients. Survival differences were studied using Kaplan-Meier (K-M) survival analysis. The predictive efficacy and clinical utility of nomograms were assessed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, the area under curve (AUC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA). A final total of 17,404 elderly KC patients (training set: n = 12,184, validation set: n = 5,220) were included to study the risk of BM. 394 elderly KCBM patients (training set: n = 278, validation set: n = 116) were included to study the overall survival (OS). Age, histological type, tumor size, grade, T/N stage and brain/liver/lung metastasis were identified as independent risk factors for developing BM in elderly KC patients. Surgery, lung/liver metastasis and T stage were identified as independent prognostic factors in elderly KCBM patients. The diagnostic nomogram had AUCs of 0.859 and 0.850 in the training and validation sets, respectively. The AUCs of the prognostic nomogram in predicting OS at 12, 24 and 36 months were: training set (0.742, 0.775, 0.787), and validation set (0.721, 0.827, 0.799), respectively. The calibration curve and DCA also showed excellent clinical utility of the two nomograms. Two new nomograms were constructed and validated to predict the risk of developing BM in elderly KC patients and 12-, 24-, and 36-months OS in elderly KCBM patients. These models can help surgeons provide more comprehensive and personalized clinical management programs for this population.