Outward Spillovers Research Articles

Return and volatility connectedness across global ESG stock indexes: Evidence from the time-frequency domain analysis

To comprehensively investigate information transmission and risk contagion among global environmental, social, and governance (ESG) stock markets, this paper employs the TVP-VAR time and frequency connectedness approaches to analyze return and volatility connectedness across global ESG stock indexes. The dataset comprises the eleven ESG stock indexes, including both developed and developing markets, spanning from October 1, 2007 to December 31, 2021. We find a strong connectedness between these ESG stock indexes in terms of return and volatility, with the ESG stock indexes in Europe and North America exhibiting mainly outward spillovers and those in Asia Pacific and India displaying mainly inward spillovers. Moreover, return connectedness is concentrated at high frequency, while volatility connectedness is concentrated at low frequency. Both return and volatility connectedness are affected by extreme events, especially the COVID-19 pandemic. However, volatility connectedness changes more dramatically than return connectedness during the pandemic. In addition, high ESG attention leads to low return connectedness but high volatility connectedness. During the pandemic, ESG attention positively affects both return and volatility connectedness across ESG stock indexes. Lastly, portfolios with the minimum time-frequency domain return connectedness exhibit higher hedging effectiveness, while portfolios with the minimum time-frequency domain volatility connectedness generate higher cumulative returns. Overall, this paper enriches the empirical framework for ESG stock markets, provides a reference for investors to invest in the market, and helps regulators to formulate forward-looking regulations that promote financial stability.

Early-warning signals of risk contagion among global stock markets: evidence from community-level

ABSTRACT In this article, we first identify the community-level structure of risk contagion among global stock markets and then provide the follow-up early-warning signals. The findings underscore the geographic nature of risk communities and their market composition heterogeneity. The core structure of risk contagion among global stock markets can be characterized by the relationship among a small number of communities that are highly coincided with geographic regions of Asia–Oceania, Europe and the Americas. Especially, we observe a more prominent role of emerging markets in communities of the Americas and Asia–Oceania. Moreover, our early-warning signals show that risk contagion within the European community and the outward spillovers to others are more pronounced. Risk spillovers from the community of Asia–Oceania to the Americas cannot be ignored either. The empirical findings may help develop the concept of top-down hierarchical real-time risk management. Risk contagion of markets in Europe and Asia–Oceania should also be attached more importance in the future early-warning system.

International monetary policy spillovers through the bank funding channel

In this paper, we examine the international transmission of monetary policies of major advanced economies (US, UK, euro area) through banks in Austria and Germany. In particular, we compare the role of banks’ funding structure, broken down by country of origin as well as by currency denomination, in the international transmission of monetary policy changes to bank lending. We find weak evidence for inward spillovers through a bank funding channel. The more a bank is funded in US dollars, the more its domestic real sector lending is affected by monetary policy changes in the US. This effect is more pronounced in Germany than in Austria. We do not find evidence for outward spillovers of euro area monetary policy.

International Monetary Policy Spillovers Through the Bank Funding Channel

In this paper, we examine the international transmission of monetary policies of major advanced economies (US, UK, euro area) through banks in Austria and Germany. In particular, we compare the role of banks’ funding structure, broken down by country of origin as well as by currency denomination, in the international transmission of monetary policy changes to bank lending. We find weak evidence for inward spillovers. The more a bank is funded in US dollars, the more its domestic real sector lending is affected by monetary policy changes in the US. This effect is more pronounced in Germany than in Austria. We do not find evidence for outward spillovers of euro area monetary policy through a bank funding channel.

Approaches to Macrofinancial Surveillance in Article IV Reports

The Fund has made good progress over the past two years in integrating macrofinancial analysis into Article IV surveillance for a wide range of members. Building on past work to enhance financial sector analysis, Fund staff has sought to develop a consistent and forward-looking view on how the financial sector affects each member’s economic outlook with the aim of strengthening staff’s capacity to provide advice on macro-critical questions. The focus has been on developing a fuller understanding of macrofinancial linkages, and applying this analysis to inform policy advice. Staff has sought to articulate the role of the financial sector in the macroeconomic baseline, and to integrate the financial sector into the risk assessment, taking into account both the impact of macro shocks on the financial sector as well as the effect of financial shocks on macroeconomic stability. Strengthening the analytical foundations of this work has helped staff provide advice in all policy areas, including financial sector policies. Staff has tailored macrofinancial analysis to the circumstances of a diverse set of economies. Area departments have taken the lead in selecting 66 economies for enhanced macrofinancial coverage and in identifying topics, drawing on targeted support from functional departments. The choice of coverage has included legacies from the global financial crisis—such as deleveraging and stretched balance sheets in advanced economies and some emerging markets—and more recent challenges such as commodity price shocks, especially in low income countries, and the risks of housing booms. The financial sector’s contribution to growth and inclusion has become an important question in countries across all income groups. Staff sees benefits in mainstreaming this approach across the membership, while continuing to address analytical gaps and adapting to new challenges. The work of the past two years has underscored the criticality of macrofinancial analysis for a diverse range of members, and laid the basis for progressively mainstreaming macrofinancial surveillance across the membership. Building on this progress, staff sees scope for the Fund to deepen its understanding of the macroeconomic effects of financial shocks, to better adapt microprudential and macroprudential policy advice with an assessment of macro-critical risks including systemic risk, and to deepen the analysis of outward spillovers. Staff will also need to continue to adapt the focus of analysis and tools, and seek relevant data, as economic challenges evolve.

The International Bank Lending Channel of Unconventional Monetary Policy

We use a confidential euro area bank-level data set of close to 250 banks to assess outward and inward spillovers of unconventional monetary policies on bank lending. We find that euro area banks increase lending to the rest of the world in response to non-standard ECB monetary policy accommodation. We also find strong evidence that euro area banks increase lending to the domestic non-financial private sector in response to accommodative unconventional monetary policy measures in the US. Inward and outward spillovers are substantially stronger for euro area banks which are liquidity constrained and which rely more on internal capital markets. This suggests that bank-specific supply effects, stemming from banks’ increased ability to lend following a central bank balance sheet expansion, are a major driver of monetary policy spillovers, providing strong support to the existence of an international bank lending channel that prevails at the effective lower bound.

Inward and Outward Spillovers in the SACU Area

Inward and Outward Spillovers in the SACU Area

Inward and Outward Spillovers in the SACU Area

Spillovers from South Africa into the other members of the Souther Africa Customs Union (known as the BLNS for Botstwana, Lesotho, Namibia, and Swaziland) are substantial reflecting sizeable real and financial interlinkages. However, shocks to real GDP growth in South Africa do not seem to systematically affect growth developments in BLNS countries as a group. Nevertheless, vector autoregressions, which allow country-specific parameters, suggest some strong spillovers onto the smaller economies.

The Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles

This paper analyzes spillovers from macroeconomic shocks in systemic economies (China, the Euro Area, and the United States) to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as well as outward spillovers from a GDP shock in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and MENA oil exporters to the rest of the world. This analysis is based on a Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2 to 2011Q2. Spillovers are transmitted across economies via trade, financial, and commodity price linkages. The results show that the MENA countries are more sensitive to developments in China than to shocks in the Euro Area or the United States, in line with the direction of evolving trade patterns and the emergence of China as a key driver of the global economy. Outward spillovers from the GCC region and MENA oil exporters are likely to be stronger in their immediate geographical proximity, but also have global implications.

The Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles

This paper analyzes spillovers from macroeconomic shocks in systemic economies (China, the Euro Area, and the United States) to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as well as outward spillovers from a GDP shock in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and MENA oil exporters to the rest of the world. This analysis is based on a Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2 to 2011Q2. Spillovers are transmitted across economies via trade, financial, and commodity price linkages. The results show that the MENA countries are more sensitive to developments in China than to shocks in the Euro Area or the United States, in line with the direction of evolving trade patterns and the emergence of China as a key driver of the global economy. Outward spillovers from the GCC region and MENA oil exporters are likely to be stronger in their immediate geographical proximity, but also have global implications.

Germany: 2011 Article IV Consultation: Staff Report; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Germany

Germany’s economic growth and recovery from the global crisis are explained in this study. Tax, education, and innovation policies are specific measures supported by the authorities. External and financial shocks received by Germany and other outward spillovers are outlined. Germany has a high current account and international assets. From a long-term perspective, rebalancing of public finances to promote growth is desirable. Stress tests are conducted to confirm the capital buffers. Finally, the banking system of Germany reflects significant policy measures and economic recovery.

Growth Spillover Dynamics from Crisis to Recovery

Can positive growth shocks from the faster-growing countries in Europe spill over to the slower growing countries, providing useful tailwinds to their recovery process? This study investigates the potential relevance of growth spillovers in the context of the crisis and the recovery process. Based on a VAR framework, our analysis suggests that the U.S. and Japan remain the key source of growth spillovers in this recovery, with France also playing an important role for the European crisis countries. Notwithstanding the current export-led cyclical upswing, Germany generates relatively small outward spillovers compared to other systemic countries, but likely plays a key role in transmitting and amplifying external growth shocks to the rest of Europe given its more direct exposure to foreign shocks compared to other European countries. Positive spillovers from Spain were important prior to the 2008 - 09 crisis, however Spain is generating negative spillovers in this recovery due to a depressed domestic demand. Negative spillovers from the European crisis countries appear limited, consistent with their modest size.

Growth Spillover Dynamics from Crisis to Recovery

Can positive growth shocks from the faster-growing countries in Europe spill over to the slower growing countries, providing useful tailwinds to their recovery process? This study investigates the potential relevance of growth spillovers in the context of the crisis and the recovery process. Based on a VAR framework, our analysis suggests that the U.S. and Japan remain the key source of growth spillovers in this recovery, with France also playing an important role for the European crisis countries. Notwithstanding the current export-led cyclical upswing, Germany generates relatively small outward spillovers compared to other systemic countries, but likely plays a key role in transmitting and amplifying external growth shocks to the rest of Europe given its more direct exposure to foreign shocks compared to other European countries. Positive spillovers from Spain were important prior to the 2008 - 09 crisis, however Spain is generating negative spillovers in this recovery due to a depressed domestic demand. Negative spillovers from the European crisis countries appear limited, consistent with their modest size.

Borrowing Agreement with the Bank of Finland

This paper is one in a series of follow-up papers on The Fund’s Mandate—An Overview and The Fund’s Mandate—The Legal Framework discussed by the Executive Board on February 22, 2010. This paper proposes ideas to modernize the mandate and modalities of surveillance. It addresses how the Fund might increase the value of its surveillance by considering both the substance of surveillance (what it should do) and its modalities (how to do it). The main ideas focus on how the Fund can do more—and more sharply defined—multilateral surveillance, generate greater value and traction from bilateral surveillance, and integrate the two better. Options to buttress multilateral surveillance include doing more analysis of outward spillovers, holding multilateral consultations as needed on special topics to foster collaboration and collective action, and strengthening financial sector surveillance by mapping interconnectedness across borders and sectors and the transmission channels of macro-financial instability. The adoption of Multilateral Surveillance Decision could help support these ideas. Options to increase the value and traction of bilateral surveillance include promoting better cross-country understanding, with more thematic multi-country reports, producing more timely and topical reports, and increasing outreach and engagement with stakeholders.

Location Strategies and Knowledge Spillovers

Given the importance of proximity for knowledge spillovers, we examine firms’ location choices expecting differences in firms’ strategies. Firms will locate to maximize their net spillovers as a function of locations’ knowledge activity, their own capabilities, and competitors’ anticipated actions. Using new entrants into the United States from 1985 to 1994, we find that firms favor locations with academic innovative activity. Other results highlight differences in firms’ location strategies suggesting that firms consider not only gains from inward knowledge spillovers but also the possible cost of outward spillovers. While less technologically advanced firms favor locations with high levels of industrial innovative activity, technologically advanced firms choose only locations with high levels of academic activity and avoid locations with industrial activity to distance themselves from competitors.