Output Persistence Research Articles

Signal Transition Graphs for Asynchronous Data Path Circuits

The paper proposes a method for constructing signal transition graphs (STGs), which are directly mapped into asynchronous circuits for data processing. The advantage of the proposed method is that the resulting circuits are not only output-persistent, but also conformant to the environment. In other approaches, the environment is specified implicitly and/or inexactly and therefore they guarantee only output persistence. The conformation can be verified if both the circuit and its environment are specified by STGs. As an example, we consider a module realizing the function AND2. This module can either wait for both 1s or evaluate the function as soon as at least one 0 arrives. For each case, we draw up a separate STG (scenario) and map it into NCL gates. To provide such a mapping, we specify the behaviors of NCL gates by STG protocols. For data path, such an STG always contains alternative branches with the so-called garbage transitions at the gate inputs. The garbage transitions on a certain wire mean that the circuit is sensitive to the delay in this wire. Ignoring the garbage may lead to a violation of conformation or/and output persistence. For example, in the combinational part of the NCL circuits, the garbage appears on the inputs of NCL gates, and therefore these circuits are not delay insensitive.

POS-139 AN ATYPICAL PRESENTATION OF DUAL-POSITIVE ANTI-MYELOPEROXIDASE AND ANTI-GLOMERULAR BASEMENT MEMBRANE ANTIBODIES VASCULITIS WITH PULMONARY-RENAL SYNDROME : A CASE REPORT

Double-positive vasculitis with anti-polynuclear cytoplasm (ANCA) and anti-glomerular basement membrane (GBM) antibodies is a rare entity of systemic vasculitis defined by the presence of ANCA and anti-GBM antibodies. We report a rare case of pulmonary-renal syndrome with atypical clinical presentation. A 52 year-old smoking man with a history of exposure to hydrocarbons and uretheral lithiasis, presented in April 2021 epigastralgia and vomiting. the investigations concluded to H.pylori gastritis and ulcer and he received a quadruple therapy. The kidney function was correct in April 2021. The evolution was marked by the persistence of symptoms and urine output had decreased for a few days. He was found to have renal dysfunction (serum creatinine: 2000 µmol/L). Abdominal CT scan without iodinated contrast injection showed severe hydronephrosis of the right pelvicalyceal system with cortical thinning and dilatation of the right ureter. The two kidneys had regular outlines seat multiple bilateral renal cysts with exophytic development. He had a nephrosomy with secondarily a right double-J stent with slight improvement of renal function. The patient presented then with acute respiratory distress.Testing for COVID-19: PCR and serology were negatives. Chest CT scan showed alveolar syndromeevoking pulmonary overload. No pneumopathy covid was shown. The evolution was marked by the non improvement by depletion and he developed hemoptic sputum and low-abundance epistaxis. The attitude was non-invasive ventilation and broad-spectrum antibiotics therapy. Control chest CT showed emphysematous lung with signs of fibrosis with bilateral subpleural nodules. A rereading of the scanner showed intraalveolar hemorrhage which has regressed on the imaging of the control. Based on these data, pneumo renal syndrome was suspected and a bronchoscopy was performed showing alveolar hemorrhage with 70% siderophageswith Gold score superior to 100. Anti-GBM and p-ANCA and antibodies were positive at a high titer. Electroneuromyogram was without anomaly. Kidney biopsy was not done because of the presence of multiple cysts. The patient received pulse methylprednisone for three days followed by oral prednisone and underwent eleven sessions of plasmapheresis. Intraveinous Cyclophosphamide has been started. He showed remarkable recovery as his lung fields cleared with negativity of GBM antibodies. Kidney function didn't improved and he remained dependent on dialysis. Our observation is exceptional since the clinical and radiological presentation of the patient was not that of a pulmonary-renal syndrome. The elements of this syndrome have in fact been masked by the obstacle on the urinary tract on one hand and the hypothesis of a covid19 pneumonia on the other hand in the face of the epidemiological context. Atypical feature of pulmonary renal syndrome should be kept in mind to avoid diagnostic and treatment delays.

Search for yield and business cycles

In the ultra-low interest rate environment after the financial crisis, it has been often pointed out that the “search for yield” behavior of financial institutions might have been intensifying interest rate decreases. One hypothesis to explain search for yield is that banks try to buy longer-term bonds even when they recognize negative term premiums in long-term rates because they myopically care about current portfolio income, not just expected holding-period returns. I study the potential impacts of this behavior on U.S. business cycles and long-term bond’s ex-post term premiums. I find that in an economy in which banks are exposed to the value-at-risk constraint, the existence of these myopic banks provides realistic moments of ex-post term premiums. In addition, their existence could generate higher output persistence under a productivity shock compared to an economy without them. This is because the difference between a myopic long-term bond pricing and a realized deposit rate path affects banks’ net worth. I study policy implications, too. In response to changes in the strength of banks’ capital regulation, the existence of myopic banks amplifies business cycles. Regarding monetary policy, it is necessary to consider ex-post term premiums, because ex-post term premiums tend to move in the same direction as the short-term interest rate and amplify business cycles in that direction when myopic banks exist.

Short-term Planning, Monetary Policy, and Macroeconomic Persistence

This paper uses aggregate data to estimate and evaluate a behavioral New Keynesian (NK) model in which households and firms plan over a finite horizon. The finite-horizon (FH) model outperforms rational expectations versions of the NK model commonly used in empirical applications as well as other behavioral NK models. The better fit of the FH model reflects that it can induce slow-moving trends in key endogenous variables which deliver substantial persistence in output and inflation dynamics. In the FH model, households and firms are forward-looking in thinking about events over their planning horizon but are backward looking regarding events beyond that point. This gives rise to persistence without resorting to additional features such as habit persistence and price contracts indexed to lagged inflation. The parameter estimates imply that the planning horizons of most households and firms are less than two years which considerably dampens the effects of expected future changes of monetary policy on the macroeconomy. \

Macroeconomic effects of inflation targeting in advanced and emerging market economies

The article assessed the treatment effects of targeting inflation regime on the real output and consumer inflation persistence in both advanced and emerging market economies. An empirical analysis is based on data from 35 OECD and 40 emerging countries and covers inflation and non-inflation targets over the period 1990–2017. The results showed that inflation targeting (henceforth – IT) had no significant impact on the GDP per capita growth rate but slightly reduced the output volatility. This study founded out that full-fledged IT had the effect of slowing down consumer inflation and reducing its volatility. Moreover, in the OECD countries, the monetary framework had certain advantages during the Great Recession. The authors argued that in order to maintain price stability in emerging economies, a high level of central bank independence and accountability is required.

Is the Cycle the Trend? Evidence From the Views of International Forecasters

We revisit the conventional view that output fluctuates around a stable trend by analyzing professional long-term forecasts for 38 advanced and emerging market economies. If transitory deviations around a trend dominate output fluctuations, then forecasters should not change their long-term output level forecasts following an unexpected change in current period output. By contrast, an analysis of Consensus Economics forecasts since 1989 suggest that output forecasts are super-persistent—an unexpected 1 percent upward revision in current period output typically translates into a revision of ten year-ahead forecasted output by about 2 percent in both advanced and emerging markets. Drawing upon evidence from the behavior of forecast errors, the persistence of actual output is typically weaker than forecasters expect, but still consistent with output shocks normally having large and permanent level effects.

Is the Cycle the Trend? Evidence from the Views of International Forecasters

We revisit the conventional view that output fluctuates around a stable trend by analyzing professional long-term forecasts for 38 advanced and emerging market economies. If transitory deviations around a trend dominate output fluctuations, then forecasters should not change their long-term output level forecasts following an unexpected change in current period output. By contrast, an analysis of Consensus Economics forecasts since 1989 suggest that output forecasts are super-persistent—an unexpected 1 percent upward revision in current period output typically translates into a revision of ten year-ahead forecasted output by about 2 percent in both advanced and emerging markets. Drawing upon evidence from the behavior of forecast errors, the persistence of actual output is typically weaker than forecasters expect, but still consistent with output shocks normally having large and permanent level effects.

Inattentive consumers and international business cycles

This paper presents and studies the properties of a sticky information exchange rate model where consumers and producers update their information sets infrequently. Introducing inattentive consumers has important implications. Through a mechanism resembling the limited participation models, exchange rate volatility observed in the data can be addressed for reasonable values of risk aversion. The model generates more persistence in output, consumption and employment which brings us closer to the data. Impulse responses to monetary shocks are hump shaped, consistent with the empirical evidence. Forecast errors of inattentive consumers provide a channel to reduce the correlation of relative consumption and real exchange rate. The decline in the correlation is quantitatively small for our benchmark model. Model generates a substantial amount of consumer forecast errors when producers are attentive and productivity shocks are persistent. This specification results in a large decline of the correlation of real exchange rate and relative consumption due to consumer inattentiveness. When trade elasticity is set to values at the low end of macro estimates or at higher values consistent with sectoral estimates, the correlation is in the negative territory with inattentive consumers.

Factors and outcomes associated with pancreatic duct disruption in patients with acute necrotizing pancreatitis

Background and aimsAcute necrotizing pancreatitis (ANP) can affect main pancreatic duct (MPD) as well as parenchyma. However, the incidence and outcomes of MPD disruption has not been well studied in the setting of ANP. MethodsThis retrospective study investigated 84 of 465 patients with ANP who underwent magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography and/or endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography. The MPD disruption group was subclassified into complete and partial disruption. ResultsMPD disruption was documented in 38% (32/84) of the ANP patients. Extensive necrosis, enlarging/refractory pancreatic fluid collections (PFCs), persistence of amylase-rich output from percutaneous drainage, and amylase-rich ascites/pleural effusion were more frequently associated with MPD disruption. Hospital stay was prolonged (mean 55 vs. 29 days) and recurrence of PFCs (41% vs. 14%) was more frequent in the MPD disruption group, although mortality did not differ between ANP patients with and without MPD disruption. Subgroup analysis between complete disruption (n = 14) and partial disruption (n = 18) revealed a more frequent association of extensive necrosis and full-thickness glandular necrosis with complete disruption. The success rate of endoscopic transpapillary pancreatic stenting across the stricture site was lower in complete disruption (20% vs. 92%). Patients with complete MPD disruption also showed a high rate of PFC recurrence (71% vs. 17%) and required surgery more often (43% vs. 6%). ConclusionsMPD disruption is not uncommon in patients with ANP with clinical suspicion on ductal disruption. Associated MPD disruption may influence morbidity, but not mortality of patients with ANP. Complete MPD disruption is often treated by surgery, whereas partial MPD disruption can be managed successfully with endoscopic transpapillary stenting and/or transmural drainage. Further prospective studies are needed to study these items.

How useful are measured expectations in estimation and simulation of a conventional small New Keynesian macro model?

This paper examines how measured expectations (survey data) affect the basic properties of a conventional small New Keynesian macro model. In particular, how do survey expectations change the role of persistence of inflation and output (i.e. coefficients of the corresponding lagged terms)? Survey data are modeled in several different ways, to facilitate an analysis of different relationships with rational expectations. The model is estimated by means of a Bayesian estimator from quarterly euro area data using both aggregated and micro level data from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters for 1999Q1–2012Q3. The broad finding is that the use of measured expectations produces more economically meaningful results than does the standard use of model-consistent rational expectations. In particular, survey expectations also reduce the relative weights of the lagged dependent variables in the Phillips curve and the IS curve. All this shows up in impulse responses that turn out to be quite different suggesting that measured expectations are not only proxies of rational expectations. By contrast, measured expectations are related to rational expectations with a way that may well reflect different adjustment and learning processes.

What if Output Persistence is Disregarded by an Opportunistic Incumbent

This note presents the consequences of output persistence being disregarded by an electorally motivate dincumbent. In this case, incumbent’s policies are suboptimal not only socially but also from the electoral point of view.

Firm-specific capital, inflation persistence and the sources of business cycles

This paper estimates a firm-specific capital DSGE model. Firm-specific capital improves the fit of DSGE models to the data (as shown by a large increase in the value of the log marginal likelihood). This results from a lower implied estimate of the NKPC slope for a given degree of price stickiness. Firm-specific capital leads to a better fit to the volatilities of macro variables and a greater persistence of inflation. It is also shown that firm-specific capital reduces the dependence of New Keynesian models on price markup shocks and that it increases the persistence of output to monetary shocks.

Sports and (real) business cycles

We extend a basic real business cycle model to incorporate households doing sports. Households decide on spending time at the workplace and spending time on doing sports. Sports acts as an investment in health and, thereby, affects total factor productivity. We study the implications of sports for the propagation of technology shocks and for the volatility and persistence of output at business cycle frequencies.

Self-employment and business cycle persistence: Does the composition of employment matter for economic recoveries?

Self-employment comprises an important share of employment in many countries, and tends to expand during downturns through higher inflows from unemployment. Furthermore, countries with higher self-employment shares exhibit lower cyclical output persistence. I build a business cycle model with frictional labor markets where individuals can be self-employed or salaried employed. I show that economies with larger self-employment shares exhibit faster economic recoveries. Differences in the ease of entry into self-employment as the economy recovers explain the contrasting cyclical dynamics. The model successfully captures the cyclical patterns of self-employment and the relationship between self-employment and output persistence in the data.

R&D, firm growth and the role of innovation persistence: an analysis of Finnish SMEs and large firms

R&D investment and growth in SMEs and large firms relate in a complex way. This paper analyses what role persistence of innovation output plays in shaping that relationship. We apply a vector auto-regression model to Finnish firm-level data and summarize the lead–lag relationship and complex co-movements of R&D growth and firm growth series. We found only continuous product and process innovators to have positive associations between R&D growth and sales growth. Also the associations between sales growth and subsequent R&D growth were stronger for continuous innovators than for occasional innovators, but only for product innovators. In the case of process innovators it is the occasional innovators that exhibit a stronger association between sales growth and subsequent R&D growth. In addition, our results vary between large and small firms. We express the need for further research on innovation dynamics and growth of SMEs analysing the interactions between different innovation activities.

Globalization, Regime-Switching, and EU Stock Markets: the Impact of the Sovereign Debt Crises

The electoral cycle literature has developed in two clearly distinct phases. The first one considered the existence of non-rational (naive) voters whereas the second one considered fully rational voters. It is our view that an intermediate approach is more appropriate, i.e. one that considers learning voters, which are boundedly rational. In this sense, one may consider perceptrons as learning mechanisms used by voters to perform a classification of the incumbent in order to distinguish opportunistic (electorally motivated) from benevolent (non-electorally motivated) behaviour of the government. The paper explores precisely the problem of how to classify a government showing in which, if so, circumstances a perceptron can resolve that problem. This is done by considering a model recently considered in the literature, i.e. one allowing for output persistence, which is a feature of aggregate supply that, indeed, may turn impossible to correctly classify the government.

Evaluating monetary policy under preferences with zero wealth effect: A Bayesian approach

Both real and monetary macro models have parallely exploited the potential for various preferences in accounting for empirical facts. This paper brings the two literatures together by estimating time non-separable preferences with habit formation in consumption that nests several commonly used preferences. In the absence of wealth effects and external habits, these preferences fail to generate observed inflation inertia and output persistence after a monetary policy shock. Furthermore, the data strongly rejects these preferences in favor of preferences with external habits. An alternative solution is to include habit adjusted intermediate wealth effect preferences which are able to simultaneously generate sluggish responses of the variables to a monetary policy shock and fit the data better.

Nonuniform Staggered Prices and Output Persistence

Staggered prices are a fundamental building block of New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. In the standard model, prices are uniformly staggered, but recent empirical evidence suggests that deviations from uniform staggering are common. This paper analyzes how synchronization of price changes affects the response to monetary policy shocks. I find that even large deviations from uniform staggering have small effects on the response of output. Aggregate dynamics in a model of uniform staggering may serve well as an approximation to a more complicated model with some degree of synchronization in price setting.

Output Persistence in Portugal

The measurement of output persistence in Portugal is the main goal of this paper. By the use of a non-parametric methodology, it is shown that the level of output in Portugal exhibits a relatively high degree of persistence. This result is essential from a (contractionary/expansionary) policy point of view as the magnitude and duration of policy effects depend upon the level of persistence in output.

Investment, matching and persistence in a modified cash-in-advance economy

We simulate and estimate a new Keynesian search and matching model with sticky wages in which capital has to be financed with cash, at least partially. Our objective is to assess the ability of this framework to account for the persistence of output and inflation observed in the data. We find that our setup generates enough output and inflation persistence with standard stickiness parameters. The key factor driving these results is the inclusion of investment in the CIA constraint, rather than any other nominal or real rigidity. The model reproduces labor market dynamics after a positive increase in productivity: hours fall, nominal wages hardly react, and real wages go up with some delay. Regarding money supply shocks, we investigate the conditions under which our model specification generates the liquidity effect, a fact which is absent in most sticky price models.