Mexico's Output Research Articles

Contribution of Mexican scholars to viticultural and oenological research: where do we stand?

Wine consumption in Mexico has increased continuously over the last decade. However, domestic wine production is not sufficient to satisfy domestic demand, and foreign wine producers have been the main beneficiaries of the growth of the Mexican market. This highlights the need of Mexican winemakers for scientific evidence and technological innovations that can help to make better management choices both in the field and in the winery. This paper presents the results of a bibliometric study that aimed to investigate the contribution of the Mexican academic community to scientific literature in viticulture and oenology (1987-2017). Results indicate that Mexican academia has failed to keep pace with the constant growth of the wine industry in Mexico. The growth of scholarly scientific output in Mexico has been slower than that of other Latin American countries. In addition, Mexican scientific output relied to a large extent (36%) on collaborations with research groups from developed countries, while collaborative papers with Latin American countries were comparatively rare (7.9%). Domestic collaboration among Mexican institutions is still limited, as indicated by the low number of such publications (23.2%) and by the considerable number of institutions producing papers independently (49%). Agrosciences, biological sciences, chemistry, microbiology and health sciences were the main areas of research of Mexican academics.

Global tendencies in pork meat - production, trade and consumption

World meat production is anticipated to stagnate in 2016, rising by a mere 0.3% to 320.7 million tonnes. Increases in output are expected in the United States, Brazil, the EU, India and the Russian Federation, while reduced production is foreseen for China, Australia and South Africa. Global meat trade is forecast to recover in 2016, growing by 2.8% to 30.6 million tonnes, which would represent a return to trend, after a fall in 2015. World production of pig meat in 2016 is forecast to decrease marginally, by 0.7% to 116.4 million tonnes, thus registering a second year of virtual stagnation. As in 2015, lower output in China, which accounts for almost half the world total, is the main reason for the slowdown. An unfavourable feed-pork price ratio in the country and new environmental regulations have caused farmers to reduce breeding sows, stalling growth. China’s production is projected to be 54 million tonnes, down 2.5% from the previous year. Elsewhere in Asia, the Philippines and Vietnam could boost output. Also, production in Japan and the Republic of Korea may expand, as the industry recovers from outbreaks of PED, which reduced piglet numbers in the previous two years. Recovery from the effects of PED has been faster in the United States, where a second year of growth is anticipated, when production could increase by 1.9% to a record 11.3 million tonnes. Output in Mexico also continues to recover, following a PED outbreak in 2014, and may rise in 2016 by 2.0% to 1.3 million tonnes. Pork meat trade could experience a second year of growth, increasing by 4.4% to 7.5 million tonnes – a record level. Lower international prices have stimulated trade. Most of the principal importing countries are anticipated to increase their purchases, including Mexico, China, the Russian Federation, the United States, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Australia. In response to rising demand, exports are projected to grow, in particular those of the United States, Canada, the EU and Brazil (FAO, 2016). Summarizing, in this study we wish to examine how evolve the world pork meat production, trade and consumption, and to demonstrate the main consuming countries, highlighting the role of China, as it is the most populated country in the world with its 1.4 billion inhabitants.
 JEL Code: Q13, Q12

Effects of the Great Recession on state output in Mexico

This paper investigates the effects of a battery of variables on total and sector output drops in the Mexican states during the Great Recession by estimating spatial and cross-section regression models. Our main results can be summarized as follows. First, there is evidence of spatial autocorrelation only in the case of total production and it seems to be negative, which does not support the hypothesis of interstate transmission of the recession. Second, total and sector production falls can be explained by the specialization in the production of tradable (mainly durable) goods. Third, exposure to external shocks plays an important role in the cases of industrial and services production, but not in total output. Fourth, there seems to be that federal fiscal policy has actually been pro-cyclical while state fiscal policies have contributed to mitigate the recession.

On the feasibility of monetary union: Does it make sense to look for shocks symmetry across countries when none of the countries constitutes an optimum currency area?

Usually, a monetary union is not considered feasible between countries if the correlations of shocks are positive but weak. This may not be so if the country with the larger output gap converges to full-employment equilibrium faster than the country with the smaller gap. We argue that common monetary policy can be destabilizing when countries' responses to non-monetary shocks are perfectly symmetric with a correlation of 1 but exhibit differing investment sensitivities to the real interest rate. We use Canada, Mexico and the United States to test the feasibility of a monetary union by documenting whether: 1) gross investments in Canada and Mexico are equally responsive to the real fund rate, and 2) Canada and Mexico's output growth and inflation respond differently to US monetary policy shocks and oil price shocks. This approach implicitly dictates whether the shocks themselves are symmetric or asymmetric. Using quarterly data and SVAR methodology, we conducted two layers of analysis. We estimated SVARs for the periods 1970–2008, 1970–1990 and 1991–2008 to find that a monetary union is feasible between Canada and the US for the first two sample periods. For Canada and Mexico, we find similar responses of output growth to US monetary policy shocks. We conducted further robustness tests by estimating two identified VARs with common US variables and oil prices for Canada and Mexico to assess commonality in responses to shocks with the US. These results affirm that a monetary union is also feasible between Canada and the US.

Offshoring and Volatility: More Evidence from Mexico's Maquiladora Industry

In recent papers, Bergin, Feenstra, and Hanson (2007 and 2009, hereafter BFH) analyze the impact that offshoring has in employment and output volatility, particularly on the Mexican maquiladora industry. Their empirical results indicate that employment and output in the offshoring manufacturing plants in Mexico are more volatile than their counterparts in the U.S. Such empirical results suggest that the maquiladora industry (offshoring) can help the U.S. industrial sector to better absorb shocks. In this paper, I expand BFH's empirical analysis in different directions. The empirical results I provide here suggest that the volatility in employment and output in Mexico's maquiladoras is greater than the one estimated by BFH. Therefore, offshoring via the maquiladora industry in Mexico can act as a greater cushion for business cycle fluctuations in the U.S.

MACROECONOMIC LINKAGES IN MEXICO

ABSTRACTThe authors study the effects of selected macro variables on output in Mexico, following a Kaleckian framework, and using a probabilistic approach to econometrics. They find a strong positive effect of US GDP, of protection of the domestic market and of government expenditure, on Mexico's GDP, and a negative influence of higher exchange rate and credit rationing. Their results support the overall outlook proposed by the post Keynesian and the Latin American Structuralist schools of economic thought, and reject the Washington Consensus type of policies Mexico has been following during the last decades.

Global Prospects and Sources of Economic Growth

Global output declined by 1 per cent in 2009, but the pace of recovery has been relatively rapid, especially in economies outside the OECD. We estimate that the level of global GDP regained its pre-crisis peak in the first quarter of 2010 (see figure A3 in the Appendix). The volume of world trade in goods and services remained some 6 per cent below its pre-crisis peak in the first quarter, but has rebounded by nearly 10 per cent since the trough reached in the second quarter of 2009 (see figure A2 in the Appendix). China remains a vital source of global demand. GDP increased by 11.9 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2010, while imports of goods in US$ terms rose by more than 60 per cent over the same period. India also bears little scarring from the global crisis and the economy expanded rapidly throughout 2009. Other Asian economies, such as Taiwan, Hong Kong and Korea, have also recovered rapidly from the global recession, expanding by 6.3, 3.3 and 4.5 per cent, respectively, in the second half of 2009. Outside of Asia, Brazil and Mexico have seen a strong rebound in growth, although the level of output in Mexico remains well below its pre-crisis peak.

The Role of Mexico in the First Oil Shortage: 1918-1922, an International Perspective

In 1921 Mexico produced a quarter of world's petroleum, making the country the second largest producer in the world, but by 1930 it only accounted for 3 per cent of world's production. To date the discussion has mostly relied on events taking place in Mexico for explaining the decline of the industry. Very little attention has been placed to developments in petroleum industry elsewhere, except Venezuela. Practically no attention has been paid to the reasons for the rise of oil output in Mexico. This neglects the massive changes taking place in the petroleum industry worldwide during the Great War years and its aftermath, and overall ignores the shortage of oil that occurred in the world's markets between 1918-1921. These are crucial events in order to understand the early rise of the Mexican oil industry and set the basis for a better understanding of the subsequent sudden decline.

Have Liberalisation and NAFTA Had a Positive Impact on Mexico's Output Growth?

This paper analyses the role of real exports, and foreign direct investment in explaining real growth in an era of economic liberalisation. The econometric approach is based on time series analysis using VARs, Granger causality, impulse response functions and variance decomposition. The empirical results reveal that exports Granger cause output growth in Mexico, which is a possible confirmation of the Export-led growth paradigm. However, no effect from FDI on GDP is found. The inclusion of NAFTA's potential impact confirms the positive effect of exports and reveals that GDP and exports Granger cause FDI. The evidence suggests that export promotion and liberalisation in Mexico had the potential to attract greater flows of foreign capital and induce economic growth.

Financial Crisis, Fiscal Policy and the 1995 GDP Contraction in Mexico

In 1995 Mexico experienced its largest contraction of GDP since the early 20th century. I propose a simple mechanism to partially account for the collapse of economic activity: distortions on consumption and leisure caused by fiscal policy. The contraction of GDP was preceded by a financial crisis. I argue that the response of the government had a significant impact on economic activity. Using a model with distortionary taxation and government consumption, I measure the impact of fiscal policy. Results show that fiscal policy has an important quantitative role in a theory of the contraction of output in Mexico in 1995.

External Shocks and Business Cycle Fluctuations in Mexico: How Important Are U.S. Factors?

This paper examines the relative importance of external shocks as sources of business cycle fluctuations in Mexico, and identifies the dynamic responses of domestic output to foreign disturbances. Using a VAR model with block exogeneity restrictions, it finds that U.S. shocks explain a large share of Mexico's macroeconomic fluctuations after NAFTA. This partly reflects greater trade integration-but also Mexico's Great Moderation, as the country escaped its former pattern of macro-financial crises. In this period, Mexico's output fluctuations have been closely synchronized with the U.S. cycle, with a large and rapid impact of U.S. shocks on Mexican growth.

External Shocks and Business Cycle Fluctuations in Mexico: How Important are U.S. Factors?

This paper examines the relative importance of external shocks as sources of business cycle fluctuations in Mexico, and identifies the dynamic responses of domestic output to foreign disturbances. Using a VAR model with block exogeneity restrictions, it finds that U.S. shocks explain a large share of Mexico's macroeconomic fluctuations after NAFTA. This partly reflects greater trade integration-but also Mexico's Great Moderation, as the country escaped its former pattern of macro-financial crises. In this period, Mexico's output fluctuations have been closely synchronized with the U.S. cycle, with a large and rapid impact of U.S. shocks on Mexican growth.

Analysis of output fluctuations in Mexico: application of the Romer model and the Taylor rule

Extending the Romer (2000) model and the Taylor (1993; 1998; 1999) rule, this paper derives theoretical relationships between equilibrium output in Mexico and a change in the exchange rate, stock values, or the world interest rate. Empirical results show that more deficit spending, higher stock prices, real peso appreciation, a lower federal funds rate, more world output, and lower expected inflation would help raise the Mexican output. The central bank plays a major role in determining the directions and magnitude of these impacts.

Comment on The Costs of Losing Monetary Independence: The Case of Mexico

The dollalization debate focuses on several benefits and costs. The essence of the case for dollarization is that it solves various problems that can OCCU14 when thelee is lack of commitment in monetary policy. Pleoponents argue that in the absence of commitment, two types of bad equiliblia can OCCU14. First, there can be an inflation bias along the lines of Kydland-Prescott and Balwo-Goledon. Second, it is possible for self-fulfilling expectations about monetary policy to pleoduce costly volatility in real allocations, such as output and employment. Both these possibilities can OCCU14 in environments in which agents' expectations of high inflation lead them to take actions that make it optimal for the monetary authority to validate those expectations. Some have alegued that the dramatic fall in output in Mexico in 1995 and the loss of output in several Asian countries in 1998 are examples of the type of volatile equiliblia that can occur when there is a lack of commitment in monetary policy. Pleoponents of dollarization argue that any policy that prevented just one episode like these is worth a great deal. 1 But there are opponents to dollarization, too. They tend to take the position that the financial instability observed in several countries leeflect other problems, and not a lack of commitment in monetary policy. They focus on the fact that the loss of control over monetary policy under dollarization means that the central bank loses the power to insulate the real economy and the fiscal system fieom shocks (see, for example, Sims 1999). The Cooley-Quadrini papele is potentially very appealing because it puleports to construct a single environment that incorporates the benefits and costs of dollarization just emphasized. Cooley and Quadrini construct a two-countley model, in which one country is calibrated to Mexico and the othele to the United States. They take U.S. monetary policy as given and they model the Mexican centleal bank as an opti-

Devaluations and aggregate output fluctuations: a random coefficient regression model for Mexico

The goal of this paper is to investigate whether nominal devaluations had real output growth effects in Mexico and, if so, to assess the significance and duration of such effects. A random coefficient regression model to evaluate the output growth effects of 1976, 1982 and 1986 devaluations using sectoral data from 1970 to 1991 is specified and estimated. The results indicate unambiguous short-term contractionary effects of devaluations on non-agricultural output in Mexico. In addition, it is found that adjustments to imbalances in the external sector invariably came from temporary contractions in the aggregate output rather than significant resource reallocation from the non-tradable sector towards the tradable sector. Several transmission mechanisms that relate nominal exchange rate movements to real output fluctuations are also considered.

The relative importance of foreign and domestic shocks to output and prices in Mexico and Colombia

The Relative Importance of Foreign and Domestic Shocks to Output and Prices in Mexico and Colombia. — This paper utilizes structural VARs to evaluate the relative importance of foreign and domestic sources of variation in output and prices in Mexico and Colombia. The real exchange rate and commodity export price have a large impact on both output and prices in Mexico, while in Colombia their effects are smaller. U. S. output and interest rates are found to play a significant role in determining output in Mexico and Colombia. For Mexico, external variables are found to be of much greater importance in the oil-exporting years after 1978 as compared to the 1960s.

Migradollars and Development: A Reconsideration of the Mexican Case

"Economic arguments, quantitative data, and ethnographic case studies are presented to counter popular misconceptions about international labor migration and its economic consequences in Mexico. The prevailing view is that Mexico-U.S. migration discourages autonomous economic growth within Mexico, at both the local and national levels, and that it promotes economic dependency. However, results estimated from a multiplier model suggest that the inflow of migradollars stimulates economic activity, both directly and indirectly, and that it leads to significantly higher levels of employment, investment, and income within specific communities and the nation as a whole. The annual arrival of around $2 billion migradollars generates economic activity that accounts for 10 percent of Mexico's output and 3 percent of its Gross Domestic Product."

Mexico's “Green Revolution,” 1940–1980: Towards an Environmental History

In agriculture, Mexico was birthplace of modem Revolution.1 From 1940 to 1965, agricultural output in Mexico increased fourfold.' During this period, Mexico went from importing to more than meeting its domestic requirements. Its stunning agricultural accomplishments were widely heralded. Mexican agriculture was used as a model by Rockefeller Foundation, U.S. Agency for International Development (AID), World Bank, and other agencies, to promote Green Revolution technology packages around world. By end of 1970s, however, something was amiss with miracle in agriculture. After a decade of sluggish growth in agricultural productivity, coupled with rapid population growth, Mexico began importing large quantities of basic grains. Barkin proclaimed the end of self-sufficiency in Mexico;3 others termed it Mexico's agricultural dilemma;4 and food crisis.5

New Mexico and World Uranium: ABSTRACT

New Mexico is endowed with the world's largest known concentration of uranium ore in sandstone. Through 1977 these orebodies yielded 129,150 short tons of U3O8, about 41% of the United States' supply and 18% of the free world's supply of yellow cake. Only one foreign nation, Canada, exceeds the state of New Mexico in production. From the 1977 level of about 7,600 tons U3O8, New Mexico's output is expected to double within the next 10 years, thus maintaining the state's relative position within the United States. However, the nation's share of world production is apt to slip as new mines come on-stream in such countries as Australia, Canada, and Niger. The sandstone uranium deposits of New Mexico, Colorado, Wyoming, and Texas have provided models for exploration around the world, and orebodies of this type are now known in at least 10 countries. Some of the foreign deposits exhibit unusual geologic features or have distinctive exploration histories. Argentina: At Sierra Pintada, the largest deposit, the ore is related to pyrite in an eolian sandstone. Australia: In the Beverly basin ore was discovered by drilling continental sediments flanking Mt. Painter which contains uranium-bearing veins in granite. Austria: At Forstau, pitchblende and coffinite mineralization in Perian sandstone beds was not remobilized during regional metamorphism to the greenischist facies. Canada: The Blizzard deposit of British Columbia was found by application of the Tono, Japan, model. France: The Herault deposit, in Permian sediments, is controlled partly by faults and partly by lithology. Gabon: The deposits are in the oldest host rock (about 2,000 m.y.) known to contain sandstone ore. Japan: In the Tono deposit, the ore is contained in paleochannel structures as a uranium-bearing zeolite mineral. Niger: The largest resources in sandstone, exclusive of the United States, have been developed in Niger. South Africa: The main deposits are in the lower part of the Beaufort Group (of the Karoo Supergroup), but northward the deposits are progressively higher in the section and in younger rocks. End_of_Article - Last_Page 695------------

Agricultural Development in Northern Mexico, 1940-1960

ing of the growth in agricultural output in Mexico in general and in northern Mexico in particular. The period examined is from 1940 to 1960. The primary reason for beginning and ending the study with these dates is that the censuses, which are the principal source of data used in this paper, were available for these years. Actually, the rapid increase in agricultural production began somewhat after 1940. The aggressive land reform program of President Cardenas from 1934 to 1940 probably discouraged private investment in agriculture and new investment was delayed until the more moderate land reform program of President Camacho (1940-1946) became evident. Also, the results of public investment in irrigation and the agricultural research program undertaken cooperatively by the Rockefeller Foundation and the Mexican government did not begin to have an impact on agricultural production until some time after 1943.