Outlook Survey Research Articles

Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Survey Methodology and Performance

Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Survey Methodology and Performance

Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Survey Methodology, Performance and Forecast Accuracy

Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Survey Methodology, Performance and Forecast Accuracy

Tracking Firm Use of AI in Real Time: A Snapshot from the Business Trends and Outlook Survey

Tracking Firm Use of AI in Real Time: A Snapshot from the Business Trends and Outlook Survey

Measuring Business Trends and Outlook through a New Survey

The Census Bureau's new Business Trends and Outlook Survey (BTOS) provides timely information from businesses on their current trends and expectations over core concepts such as prices, employment, and revenue. The BTOS collects qualitative information in order to produce extensive margins for core economic phenomena. BTOS results are representative of all single-location nonfarm businesses in the United States. We highlight sectoral differences in extensive margins of employment and prices using the Finance and Insurance sector and the Accommodation and Food Services sector as examples. We find that businesses, especially in Accommodation and Food Services, anticipate future output price increases, possibly to accommodate rising current input prices.

Professional Quality of Life and Fear of Covid-19 Moderated by Perceived Job Market Outlook: Predicting Registered Nurse Turnover Intentions in South Florida During the Covid-19 Pandemic

Background: The nursing shortage and the aging of the nursing workforce is a growing concern for health care institutions. Understanding nurses attitudes toward turnover intentions is a crucial step to develop effective policies and maintain nurse staffing continuity. Objective: This research aims to study the impact of the Professional Quality of Life and Fear of COVID-19 moderated by perceived Job Market Outlook on South Florida registered nurses by predicting turnover intentions. Methods: From March to August, 2021, 202 registered nurses from seven South Florida counties completed the self-reporting Professional Quality of Life, Fear of COVID-19, and perceptions of Job Market Outlook surveys when predicting turnover intentions in a quantitative nonexperimental predictive correlational design research study. Results: Results showed that in the professional quality of life, burnout significantly predicted (p <.001) registered nurses (n=202) turnover intentions during the COVID-19 pandemic. Secondary traumatic stress, compassion satisfaction and fear of COVID-19 did not significantly predict registered nurses’ turnover intentions. Hierarchical regression analysis confirmed burnout is significantly more predictive than no model of turnover intentions accounting for more variance at 15.45% (p < .001). Perceived job market outlook did not moderate between the independent variables and the dependent variable turnover intentions. Conclusion: This research reveals the deleterious impact of burnout in the registered nurses’ professional quality of life and turnover intentions warranting the need for health care institutions and nursing leadership to collaborate on the needs of the nursing workforce on a micro and macro level.

Economic policy uncertainty and institutional investment returns: The case of New Zealand

This study introduces a monthly news-based economic policy uncertainty index for New Zealand (NZ EPU) and examines the pricing implications of NZ EPU on a large sample of institutional investors. We find that NZ EPU is a priced and an undiversifiable risk factor that commands a statistically and economically significant risk premium of 6.23% on annual basis in the cross-section of managed fund returns. Interestingly, despite the fact that about 70% of the funds in our sample adopt a global focus, our tests show that local uncertainty plays a more dominant role as a driver of institutional investment returns compared to global policy uncertainty. We show that funds with lower (higher) sensitivity to NZ EPU index generate significantly higher (lower) subsequent excess returns, even after controlling for the well-established systematic risk factors and fund level determinants. Further analysis suggests that NZ EPU betas are highly persistent and can predict short- and long-term returns up to 12 months, implying that active fund managers can devise an active timing strategy by tracking changes in the NZ EPU index. Our findings present important implications for policy makers and investors as the proposed NZ EPU index is able to capture both global and local shocks, while it aligns well with the overall trends in the business outlook surveys.

Deciphering Human Microbiota-Host Chemical Interactions.

Our gut harbors more microbes than any other body site, and accumulating evidence suggests that these organisms have a sizable impact on human health. Though efforts to classify the metabolic activities that define this microbial community have transformed the way we think about health and disease, our knowledge of gut microbially produced small molecules and their effects on host biology remains in its infancy. This Outlook surveys a range of approaches, hurdles, and advances in defining the chemical repertoire of the gut microbiota, drawing on examples with particularly strong links to human health. Progress toward understanding and manipulating this chemical language is being made with diverse chemical and biological expertise and could hold the key for combatting certain human diseases.

Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey: Survey Methodology and Performance

The Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey (TSSOS) and Texas Retail Outlook Survey (TROS) are monthly surveys of service sector and retail firms in Texas conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. TSSOS and TROS track the Texas private services sector, including general service businesses, retailers and wholesalers. The surveys provide invaluable information on regional economic conditions—information that Dallas Fed economists and the Bank president use in the formulation of monetary policy. This paper describes the survey’s methodology and analyzes the explanatory and predictive power of TSSOS and TROS indexes with regard to Texas employment growth. Regression analysis shows that several TSSOS and TROS indexes help explain monthly variation in Texas employment. In addition, most TSSOS and TROS indexes are also useful in forecasting Texas employment growth.

Understanding Monetary Policy and its Effects: Evidence from Canadian Firms Using the Business Outlook Survey

This paper shows (i) that business sentiment, as captured by survey data, matters for monetary policy decisions in Canada, and (ii) how business perspectives are affected by monetary policy shocks. Measures of business sentiment (soft data) are shown to have systematic explanatory power for monetary policy decisions over and above typical Taylor rule variables.

The Insensitivity of Investment to Interest Rates: Evidence from a Survey of CFOs

A fundamental tenet of investment theory and the traditional theory of monetary policy transmission is that investment expenditures by businesses are negatively affected by interest rates. Yet, a large body of empirical research offer mixed evidence, at best, for a substantial interest-rate effect on investment. In this paper, we examine the sensitivity of investment plans to interest rates using a set of special questions asked of CFOs in the Global Business Outlook Survey conducted in the third quarter of 2012. Among the more than 500 responses to the special questions, we find that most firms claim to be quite insensitive to decreases in interest rates, and only mildly more responsive to interest rate increases. Most CFOs cited ample cash or the low level of interest rates, as explanations for their own insensitivity. We also find that sensitivity to interest rate changes tends to be lower among firms that do not report being concerned about working capital management as well as those that do not expect to borrow over the coming year. Perhaps more surprisingly, we find that investment is also less interest sensitive among firms expecting greater revenue growth. These findings seem to be corroborated by a cursory meta-analysis of average hurdle rates drawn from firm-level surveys at different times over the past 30 years, which exhibit no apparent relation to market interest rates.

Comments: How Big a Threat?

Editor's column As the oil industry begins to emerge from one of the worst downturns in decades, some see a new threat on the horizon: the growing use of electrically powered vehicles, which could cut seriously into future oil consumption. Automobile manufacturers and oil companies are trying to estimate the growth potential of these vehicles, which currently make up only 1% of the global transportation market but have surprised automakers with a quick uptake in demand over the past 2 years. There are now more than 1 million electric cars on the road, up 70% from 2014, according to the International Energy Agency. Transportation currently accounts for more than half of oil consumption worldwide. The oil recession of the past 2 years underscored the critical importance of the balance between global supply and demand. As oil supplies swamped consumption with US shale output sky-rocketing, Saudi Arabia increased production to try to drive high-cost producers out of business, and demand in places such as China cooled off. Automakers and many prominent companies in the oil industry apparently see different futures for electric vehicle growth. Both the widely watched ExxonMobil and BP annual energy outlook surveys have paid little attention to potential disruptions from electric vehicles, although both have noted the growing efficiency of the traditional combustion engine as a factor in reduced demand. In a survey of top oil executives attending the Oil and Money Conference in London in November, only 12% saw electric vehicles as a serious threat to the industry, ranking lower than such issues as a potential looming supply shortage, lack of capital investment, and break-even price points for production. “Electric cars, they can grow, but I don’t think that is a problem for us,” ENI Chief Executive Officer Claudio Descalzi said at the conference. Notably, Statoil and BHP Billiton have a different take. Statoil Chief Executive Eldar Saetre said at the same event that global oil demand could peak in the 2020s as the rising use of electric vehicles will “shrink” the industry. And BHP said in a blog on its website that “2017 could be the year when the electric car revolution really gets started.” Automakers believe that as batteries become cheaper and can support longer driving ranges, consumption of electric vehicles will soar. They are also banking on the preferences of millennials and the coming prospect of driverless vehicles to enhance electric transport demand. Executives of Mercedes, BMW, and Ford all recently predicted a strong uptake in electric vehicle use over the next decade. Oil analysts are just starting to put serious research to the question and predictions vary widely. Wood Mackenzie believes that electric vehicle use could take 1–2 mil-lion B/D of oil consumption out of the market within 20 years. IHS Markit is embarking on a major study, predicting that electric vehicles could account for 15% to 35% of all vehicle sales by 2040, which “could bring about the greatest transformation since the dawn of the automotive age.” Others predict that energy efficiency and government regulations pushing a low-carbon future will have the most impact on future demand, but the rapid uptake of technologies that are disrupting long-term business models should bring this issue to the surface in the next couple of years.

Nowcasting of Economic Development Indicators Using the NBU’s Business Survey Results

The article was devoted to the research of possibilities to use Business Outlook Survey results, which are carried out by National Bank of Ukraine, for the short-term forecasting of economic development, in particular, the Gross Domestic Product of Ukraine. The different methods of building of the leading index of economic development, their advantages, and their restrictions are examined. The choice of the best index, which provides for the higher accuracy of forecasting the GDP, is carried out with the use of econometric models.

Understanding Firms' Inflation Expectations Using the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey

Les anticipations d’inflation constituent un determinant essentiel de l’inflation actuelle et future et entrent par consequent en ligne de compte dans la conduite de la politique monetaire. A partir des donnees trimestrielles recueillies par la Banque du Canada aupres des firmes dans le cadre de son enquete sur les perspectives des entreprises, de 2001 a 2015, les auteurs examinent la facon dont les firmes forment ces anticipations.

Why Isn’t Investment More Sensitive to Interest Rates: Evidence from Surveys

A fundamental tenet of investment theory and the traditional theory of monetary policy transmission is that investment expenditures by businesses are negatively affected by interest rates. Yet, a large body of empirical research offer mixed evidence, at best, for a substantial interest-rate effect on investment. In this paper, we examine the sensitivity of investment plans to interest rates using a set of special questions asked of CFOs in the Global Business Outlook Survey conducted in the third quarter of 2012. Among the more than 500 responses to the special questions, we find that most firms claim to be quite insensitive to decreases in interest rates, and only mildly more responsive to interest rate increases. Most CFOs cited ample cash or the low level of interest rates, as explanations for their own insensitivity. We also find that sensitivity to interest rate changes tends to be lower among firms that do not report being concerned about working capital management as well as those that do not expect to borrow over the coming year. Perhaps more surprisingly, we find that investment is also less interest sensitive among firms expecting greater revenue growth. These findings seem to be corroborated by a cursory meta-analysis of average hurdle rates drawn from firm-level surveys at different times over the past 30 years, which exhibit no apparent relation to market interest rates.

Meet your enrollment goals in 6 steps: Create a connected admissions experience

If you're worried about meeting your enrollment goals this year, you're not alone. A total of 85 percent of admissions directors are concerned about their ability to reach or maintain enrollment levels, according to the results of the third annual Higher Education Outlook Survey conducted by KPMG LLP, the audit, tax and advisory firm.

Do market prices aggregate information about macroeconomic uncertainty (or risk)?

This article examines several economic variables that represent either confidence in future economic conditions or the degree of risk/uncertainty about future conditions in order to determine which contain more information about future employment and output. Some of these variables are prices, while others are from surveys. Causality tests, historical decompositions within a VAR and out-of-sample forecasts are among the tools used. This article concludes that monthly stock returns contain much more information about future economic conditions than the other variables. The spread between Moody’s BAA and AAA bonds, the spread between the constant maturity 10-year government bond and the federal funds rate, as well as uncertainty in future economic conditions as measured by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Business Outlook Survey also provide information about future economic conditions. Notably, this article finds that monthly stock returns contain more information about future economic conditions than does the vix and that variables based on market prices provide more information than survey data. This result provides some support for the notion that market prices aggregate information.

Fit for fight? A cross-sectional study of union apathy in Norway

The article synthesizes the literature on union commitment and union renewal through employing the concept of union apathy. This is done with a view to analyse the association between union strategies and union apathy, and the association between apathy and willingness to become a union delegate in Norway. To this end, the authors have run multivariate regressions on the YS Employment Outlook Survey. Results show that union strategy is significantly associated with apathy, and that apathetic union members are less willing to work for their union in the capacity of union delegate. The authors conclude that if unions are to counter apathy in an effort at renewal, and to ensure a sufficient pool of potential union delegates, they must mobilize the talents, ideas and energy of their members. Finally, the authors suggest that unions with an ‘organizing’ soul seem better equipped to counter apathy than unions bent on the ‘servicing’ model.

Collaboration Between Firms and Universities in Italy: The Role of a Firm’s Proximity to Top-Rated Departments

This work aims at examining the determinants of research collaboration between firms and universities using the results of the 15th wave of the Bank of Italy Business Outlook Survey on Firms, together with data on the quality and the importance of university research. The distance from top research centres is the most important factor in determining the probability of collaboration. The presence of different innovation sources increases the probability of collaboration; proximity is more important for small- and medium-sized firms, while larger ones collaborate with universities better able to sell the results of their research, regardless of their location.

Interest Rate Volatility and Expectations about the Business Cycle

One explanation for the usefulness of financial variables as tools for economic forecasting is that they embody the expectations of economic agents about the future state of the economy. In this paper, we test whether interest rate volatility contains information on the expectations of agents which are directly measured by confidence indicators. For the sake of robustness, we use several different expectation indicators for the two countries we analyze, the US and Germany: the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, the Philadelphia Fed’s Business Outlook Survey and the Purchase Management Index for the US and the Economic Sentiment Indicator, the IFO Business Climate and ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany. We propose using a forward-looking measure of volatility: the implied volatility of one year cap options. We find that implied volatility adds explanatory power to the yield spread and to changes in the short rate, which are typical predictors of the business cycle, and outperforms realized volatility.

The enemy within: the inherent security risks of temporary staff

Since the credit crunch and the subsequent tentative recovery, there has been a boom in the use of temporary staff. According to the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development's (CIPD) Labour Market Outlook Survey last year, employers reported that 29% of new recruits will be employed on this basis.1 There is a growing issue with fraudsters taking positions with companies as temporary staff with the sole intention of learning their systems and procedures so they can later commit fraud. The risk of fraud has been exacerbated by the growth of ‘Bring Your Own Device’ (BYOD) on many company networks. IT departments need to effectively control BYOD users, especially temporary ones, and look at what privileges temporary staff are given, explains Ching Liu of Control Risks.