Outbreak Of Civil War Research Articles

Analysis of cox proportional hazard model for dropout students in university: case study from SIMAD university

PurposeThe main purpose of this study is to evaluate the extent of dropout students and identify the relationship between risk factors of dropout and the survival time of students.Design/methodology/approachThe Kaplan–Meier estimator (KM), also known as the product-limit technique, is a nonparametric model function that is commonly used in estimating survival function events (Kaplan and Meier, 1958). The survival function's Kaplan–Meier estimators are used to estimate and graph survival probabilities as a function of time, as well as explanatory data analysis (EDA) for the survival data, including the median survival time, and compare for two or more of the survival events. In addition, Cox proportional hazards model is employed for modelling purpose.FindingsResults of the Kaplan–Meier curves show that male students have lower survival rates than female, researchers have found that there is a difference between the survival times of the student's school types, results show students from English-based schools are higher than Arabic-based schools as suggested by the survival curve. Similarly, there is a difference between the survival times of students aging equal or greater than 25 and students aging less than 25 and survival function estimates of dropout according to high school grade marks has huge difference. These results were confirmed using log rank test as age, school type and marks were statistically significantly different while gender is not statistically significant.Research limitations/implicationsThere is no study of this kind from the Somalia context about the student's dropout. Subsequent to the outbreak of civil war in 1988 and the collapse of the central government in 1991, all public social services in Somalia including education centers were severely disrupted.Originality/valueThe statistical methods discussed in the previous section will be applied on a real dataset obtained from different offices of the university; most of the data were extracted from faculty of economics office and admission and record office. The data set comprised of 70 students from SIMAD university, consists of full-time faculty of economics students who enrolled at the university in the academic year of 2017–2018 until two years of diploma, students either complete 24 months of diploma or leave the university and that is the event of interest.

Rewarding a friend: Does the World Bank direct non-commercial risk insurance to countries that support US foreign policy interests?

ABSTRACT Many scholars have investigated the politics of World Bank Group (WBG) lending, often finding that WBG loans are distributed in ways that advance US policy interests. However, the organisation’s other major activity, promoting foreign direct investment (FDI), has received little attention. This study fills this void in the literature, with attention to the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA), the youngest of the five agencies that collectively make up the WBG. MIGA provides multinational companies with insurance to protect their investments from non-commercial risks in host countries, such as the outbreak of civil war or government expropriation. Given considerable evidence that WBG loans support US interests, MIGA’s risk insurance may be similarly politicised. However, since MIGA is financially independent and prohibits political activity, we theorise that US influence operates informally through MIGA staff, who reward US-aligned countries to ‘please the principal,’ and hence ensure that the US continues to support the Agency. Empirical analysis based on over 1500 MIGA-insured investments covering 121 member countries over the 1990–2020 period shows that MIGA insurance is disproportionately rewarded to investments in host countries that support US policy interests. Our findings suggest that this politicisation is primarily staff-led.

American Polisy Towards the Two-Year War in Lebanon (1975 -1976)

The purpose of this research is to follow up and analyze U. S. A policy towards what was known as Two – Year War in Lebanon ( 1975 – 1976 ).Despite the decline of Lebanon position in American policy in the Middle East since the Arab – Israeli war in October 1973, but the possible repercussions of the war in Lebanon on Israel’s security on the hand, and on American efforts to find a peaceful settlement for Arab – Israeli conflict on the other hand , made Washington keen not to expand the war in Lebanon and try to find a political solution for it in any way. This explains Washington acceptance of the Syrian military intervention in Lebanon on April 5, 1976 and persuading her ally Israel not to oppose that intervention as long as it ensures that Syria does not exceed the red lines agreed upon by both sides, so that this intervention does not turn into a direct threat to Israel’s security. The Research sheds light on the outbreak of civil war in Lebanon in 1975, and the rapid developments in Lebanon in terms of political and security aspects with the expansion and intensification of the war, and U. S. A.  policy toward those developments before and after the Syrian military intervention. The research was based on many sources in English and Arabic languages, among them the documents of U. S. department of state and the CIA, memoires of Lebanese and American politicians, academic studies and Lebanese newspapers.

Leadership, nation-building and war in South Sudan: the problems of statehood and collective will

Leadership, nation-building and war in South Sudan explores the historical contradictions in the foundation of the South Sudanese state as well as the country's future prospects. The book is based on fieldwork research that the author conducted between 2015 and 2018. With a historical approach, Sonja Theron seeks to explain why ‘South Sudan has not known peace since 1955’ (p. 15). Here, the author is alluding to the reigniting of old political feuds, including the outbreak of the civil war in 2013. Theron revisits the history of conquests, slave trade and the Islamic sentiments that propelled the Mahdist revolt of the late 1880s, which she places in the context of the push for independence, which lasted from 1821 until the outbreak of the Sudanese civil war in 1955. With the support of Christian missionaries and the Anya Nya liberation movement in the 1960s, a South Sudanese political consciousness flourished. The book also illustrates how the shaky foundation of the postcolonial state triggered the emergence of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) in 1983, with a broad-based alliance against marginalization. Three decades later, the SPLM invoked the right to self-determination for South Sudan's independence in 2011. Crucially, Theron points to the peace agreements that the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) mediated between 2002 and 2018, and their failure to address the root causes of the conflict. According to the author, IGAD sought to accommodate the political priorities of different factions, which allowed them to continue plundering the state and which ultimately worsened the country's underdevelopment and political fragility.

Failed Peace in South Sudan? Exploring Unarmed Civilians and Local Peacekeepers through the Work of Nonviolent Peaceforce

Since the 2013 outbreak of civil war in South Sudan, the conflict has produced orgies of casualties and displacement of millions necessitating a series of mandates of the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS). Yet, humanitarian crises and civilian protection challenges have not been reversed. To address these deficiencies, this article examined methods of the unarmed civilian peacekeeping as local peace formation and infrastructure involving the non-use of weapons for civilian protection as practiced by the Nonviolent Peaceforce (NP). Adopting ethnographic strands of Critical Peace Studies and utilisation of participant observations in humanitarian accounts with the NP between 2015 and 2019, our in-depth qualitative fieldwork indicates a potentially effective approach to unarmed civilian protection in the country. Our findings illuminate the limited viability of the UN civilian appointed personnel, while making an argument for the compelling efficacy of unarmed civilian peacekeepers in which those affected by the conflict are themselves empowered in their physical protection, the study further recommends the integration of the NP strategies into the current state of peace operation disarray so the current self-fulfilling prophecy of failed peace in South Sudan can be overturned.

Lights on the emergence backgrounds of the de facto autonomy of North and East Syria (NES). Its features of quasi state and interdependence with roots of the Kurdish question in Syria

Abstract The research is presenting backgrounds to the sudden informal secession of the Kurdish regions in Syria from the central government of Damascus in 2012, to successively create a kind of de facto autonomy known as Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES). This research is trying to expose features of a quasi state demonstrated by AANES through analyses of its existence mechanisms and collaborations with the International Coalition in fights against ISIS, and also in the efforts by AANES to obtain international recognition for its autonomous project. Furthermore, to point the relations between indigenous secession attempts presented by AANES and roots of the Kurdish question in Syria, also the inter-engagements with micro- and macro-aspects and fluctuations of political transformation inside Syria and the existing severe ethnic and sectarian fragmentations of Syria’s society, considered as the main factors behind Syrian state failure and fragmentation, that also became very obvious after the outbreak of civil war in 2011, to finally present prognoses about the fate of AANES and Syrian state.

Research on Tonkin – Cochinchina Civil War (Vietnam) During the 17th and 18th Centuries Through Western Materials

Introduction. The article researches Tonkin – Cochinchina Civil War (in Vietnamese history, also known as Dang Trong – Dang Ngoai War or Trinh – Nguyen War) that took place from the early 17th century to the late 18th century in Vietnam. Methods and Materials. When researching this matter, the author used Western materials, including writings, reports, correspondences, diaries, etc., of Western missionaries, merchants, and travellers used to operate in Vietnam in the 17th and 18th centuries. The author combines two main research methods of historical science (historical method and logical method) with other research methods (system, analysis, synthesis, comparison, etc.) to clarify the article’s contents. Analysis. In the 17th and 18th centuries, the struggle for political power between two powers: Trinh Lord in Tonkin and Nguyen Lord in Cochinchina, caused Vietnam to undergo a fierce civil war that lasted for more than a century. This civil war was scattered mentioned in Western missionaries, merchants, and travellers’ materials (including writings, reports, correspondences and diaries), operating in Vietnam during this period. The cause of the civil war outbreak, force correlation between two sides, happening of some battles and using foreign resources of Trinh Lord and Nguyen Lord to defeat the enemy, those were the contents recorded by Westerners. Despite not much adequate, researchers also have a basic visualization of Tonkin – Cochinchina Civil War’s panorama taking place in Vietnam in the 17th and 18th centuries. Results. Based on researching several contents related to Tonkin – Cochinchina Civil War, mentioned in writings, reports, correspondences, and diaries of Westerners present in Vietnam in the 17th and 18th centuries, the author analyzed to draw out the advantages and limitations of these materials. On that basis, the author initially clarifies its value for the research and assessment of Tonkin – Cochinchina Civil War of Vietnamese scholars at present and in the future.

Identifying Patterns in the Structural Drivers of Intrastate Conflict

AbstractQuantitative methods have been used to: (1) better predict civil conflict onset; and (2) understand causal mechanisms to inform policy intervention and theory. However, an exploration of individual conflict onset cases illustrates great variation in the characteristics describing the outbreak of civil war, suggesting that there is not one single set of factors that lead to intrastate war. In this article, we use descriptive statistics to explore persistent clusters in the drivers of civil war onset, finding evidence that some arrangements of structural drivers cluster robustly across multiple model specifications (such as young, poorly developed states with anocratic regimes). Additionally, we find that approximately one-fifth of onset cases cannot be neatly clustered across models, suggesting that these cases are difficult to predict and multiple methods for understanding civil conflict onset (and state failure more generally) may be necessary.

Factors Involved in the Outbreak of the Civil War in Syria in March 2011

"This article was written as part of my doctoral research on the topic of Conflict of Loyalties: Relationships between Druze in Israel and Druze in Syria during the Syrian Civil War between 2011-2017. In this article I will analyze the factors involved in the outbreak of the civil war in the context of the conflict of loyalties among the Druze population living in Syria. The article will show the political and geopolitical background to the civil war outbreak. Keywords: Druze, Civil war, Israel, Syria, Syrian war. "

Constantine Palaiologos’ Conspiracy: A Prologue to the Age of Civil Wars in Byzantium

This research addresses the chronologically first episode among dynastic conflicts during the reign of Andronikos II Palaiologos (1282–1328), when the emperor’s younger brother Constantine Porphyrogennetos made a conspiracy. The scholarship has not developed a consensus as to the fairness of accusations against the latter. This article uses the analysis of written sources account to prove that there was a real conspiracy and to find out its content, circumstances, and consequences for the Byzantine state and society. The conclusion is that the conspiracy was uncovered at an early stage, so it did not take full shape. The initiator of the conflict was Constantine Palaiologos. The conspirators, the high-ranking Byzantine military commander representing a major noble family Michael Strategopoulos in particular, tried to lean on various social elements and even to use for their own advantage the controversies within the Byzantine Church, with their final goal to overthrow Andronikos II with the use of military force. Despite his exceptional position in the hierarchy of court titles, Constantine Palaiologos was actually deprived of power as public administrator, and therefore he tried to usurp the rights for which, in his view, he could claim due to uncertainty of his place in power relations in Byzantium of the late thirteenth century. By uncovering the conspiracy against him, Andronikos II strengthened his position on the throne and neutralized the immediate threat of destabilizing the state, preventing (or postponing?) the possible outbreak of civil war in the Empire.

The United Artistic and Historical Comission and its role in the Anatoly Lunacharsky’s plans of organization of the central department for protection of historical and cultural heritage (January – early February 1918)

The article analyzes the situation of the protection of historical and cultural heritage in the end of 1917 – beginning of 1918 in Petrograd. After the October Revolution Anatoly Lunacharsky (the people’s commissar for education) decided to organize the central department for protection of historical and cultural heritage of Russia. This project was previously discussed by the Provisional Government. After the October Revolution it became even more current question. On the one hand it was the time of the building on completely new principles of state administration, and on the other, it was the time of general instability and in fact the outbreak of civil war. Responsibility for the safety of such artifacts (among them museum collections were the most important), which lay with the Bolsheviks, could be used as a weighty argument in the fight against numerous political opponents. It was in urgent need to take the preservation of cultural and historical monuments under centralized control. The foundation for such an organization was prepared by the Petrograd Artistic and Historical Commission, which began its activity in the period between the two revolutions of 1917. After the October Revolution, its members, realizing the importance of the tasks, refused to join the sabotage of the actions of the new government and continued to fulfill their duties. The authors analyze a number of archival documents, not previously considered by researchers in this perspective. These documents give reason to propose that Anatoly Lunacharsky planned to create the State Council for Arts under his own patronage in the period between January and February 1918. Also, he planned to transform the United Artistic and Historical Commission into the central executive body for protection of historical and cultural heritage. In fact, it should have been the ministry-equivalent organization. After the creation of the State Council for Arts this Commission should save its functions of the central executive institution. In this regard P. P. Veyner prepared a Note by the Anatoly Lunacharsky’s request, the publication of the text of which is carried out by the authors for the first time.

Роль и место технологий «цветных революций» в событиях «арабской весны»

The article examines the events that took hold of the region of the Middle East and North Africa, united under the bright and elegant name "Arab Spring". However, the colorful term hides the phenomenon of an unsightly part of modern politics - a part that is a special technology of "hybrid warfare". "Hybrid warfare" arose from the ruins of the bipolar system, and it includes all methods of undermining, destroying and ruining the nation state. "Hybrid warfare" is the complex hostile actions of the leading Western powers, carried out against geopolitical competitors. The "color revolution" is a component of the "hybrid warfare", more precisely, it is a specific operational phase that is limited in time and space. This is a special operation, in which, as a rule, a very long preparatory period is allocated (it can last up to ten years), when a pro-Western anti-state elite is formed in the country — object of the "hybrid warfare", the NGO sector is financed, mass media resources of neoliberal, westernized type are founded. The operational, visible, phase of the "color revolution" is short-term; as a rule, it lasts from one day to a couple of weeks. It is expressed in mass, in the overwhelming majority youth protests, organized by means of cognitive and technological methods. More than representative examples of Libya and Syria, as the main regional geopolitical competitors of the West, are used to demonstrate the preparatory and operational phase of the "color revolutions", which have reached the extreme goal of the "hybrid warfare": the deployment of a full-scale civil war, the formation of parallel government bodies supported from outside, and foreign armed intervention. The “color revolution” does not depend on the socio-economic conditions in the country, its deployment depends only on the will and goals of the "customers". Libya and Syria have shown that "color revolutions" pave the way and serve as a locomotive for the outbreak of civil war and foreign intervention. As a result, Libya, which challenged the Western financial system, was thrown out of civilizational development; the country currently has not a single formal sign of a state left. For a decade, Syria has been waging an endless unequal battle for the right to preserve statehood and an independent path of development. The article contains voluminous material for the formation of students in the framework of the "International Relations" field. English version of the article is available at URL: https://panor.ru/articles/role-and-place-of-colour-revolution-technologies-in-the-events-of-the-arab-spring/76946.html

FOREIGN POLICY ANALYSIS OF OPERATION PEACE SPRING BY TURKEY IN 2019 AS A FORM OF SECURITIZATION OF THE SYRIAN REFUGEE CRISIS

The outbreak of civil war in Syria since 2011 has resulted in 3.8 million Syrian refugees having to move to neighboring countries. Turkey is one of them, with the total number of refugees as of December 2020 reaching 3.6 million refugees who fled to Turkey. This led to the emergence of a refugee crisis in Turkey which caused various problems at home. One of the problems with the refugee crisis is that it causes high unemployment in Turkey and is one of the factors inhibiting the economy. As a form of securitization of the refugee crisis by the Turkish state, it has been responded to in various ways and one of them is the Operation Peace Spring’s foreign policy launched in 2019. This policy is in the form of military operations to occupy territories by Turkey in the northern part of Syria, with the aim of providing a "safe zone" for Syrian refugees to return to their homeland. Through the concept of securitization, the writer finds that as a sovereign country, Turkey must provide security to its citizens from threats, especially from abroad. This type of research used in this research is to use a qualitative descriptive method. This method is used to obtain a more detailed explanation regarding developing issues. With this process, it will be explained comprehensively and also pay attention to the structure of how the securitization carried out by Turkey in Operation Peace Spring's foreign policy can provide security for the threats it receives.

‘Everyone is a Possibility’: Messy Networks of Refugees from Syria in Urfa, Turkey

ABSTRACT Of the millions of Syrians who have fled their homes since the outbreak of civil war in Syria in 2011, some 3.4 million are registered in Turkey. Although the Turkish government and humanitarian organizations provide services and aid, these do not meet the needs of refugees to ensure their livelihoods. Research indicates that refugees build their livelihoods more upon informal support systems and personal choices than on formal support from the government and humanitarian organizations. Based on a case study in Urfa, Turkey, and using a qualitative approach, this study examines the nature and role of social networks among refugees from Syria and the roles they play. A wide diversity of partly overlapping networks are observed and no single, overarching Syrian community. This study also shows these social networks to be messy, in that they overlap and vary in their dynamics, diversity, and socio-spatial range. This messy nature of networks enables individual refugees to act on possibilities.

Reading Reef in the Anthropocene

Set between Sri Lankan independence and the outbreak of civil war, Romesh Gunesekera’s Reef features a marine biologist named Salgado who predicts the decay of the island’s coral exoskeleton, a fragile barrier against inundation by the sea. Critics overwhelmingly view the eroding reef as a symbolic harbinger of the violence that eventually engulfed Sri Lanka. But this essay takes the novel’s motif of dying coral and rising seas more literally, reading Reef as an incipient work of postcolonial Anthropocene fiction. A finalist for the 1994 Booker Prize, Reef preceded a wave of climate novels published by prominent authors after the turn of the millennium. More remarkable, it appeared five years before the first major report linking widespread coral damage to anthropogenic climate change. While Salgado’s research serves as a failed fictional antecedent to these findings, his servant Triton ultimately perceives that carbon emissions are destroying the reef. Indeed, what makes Gunesekera’s novel a postcolonial work of Anthropocene fiction is precisely Triton’s status as a servant. I argue that this status not only enables Triton to perceive the material and social conditions that cause climate change. It also shapes his interspecies perspective, allowing Triton to think and feel like a reef.

Religion, rationalism and civil war: The case of Algeria

ABSTRACT What role does religion play in understanding the outbreak of civil war? The purpose of this study is to offer an alternative understanding which conceptualises religion as discourse, religious identity as sacred narrative, and religious nationalism as a conflict over the power to shape interpretations of political legitimacy. A rationalist explanation for the role of religion in the outbreak of the Algerian civil war provides an empirical motivation for the argument. By conceptualising religion largely in rational-material terms, I contend that rationalists fail to appreciate religion’s unique attraction – the belief that the ultimate seat of political authority exists beyond the state and in some transcendent reality. As an alternative, I conceptualise religion as a discursive institution, explaining how the contest to shape a faith’s sacred narrative can result in physical violence. This exercise is a first step in a broader research agenda addressing how a robust theory of religious identity can enhance scholars’ understanding of peace and conflict.

US counterterrorism in the Sahel: from indirect to direct intervention

Abstract The massive expansion and evolution of United States security cooperation under the auspices of the ‘war on terror’ remains overlooked in the counterterrorism and interventions literature. The Sahel provides a useful region in which to explore the constitutive effects of such cooperation and its evolution because the US has always pursued an ‘economy of force’ mission there. In this article, I focus mainly on the constitutive effects of US indirect military intervention in the Sahel after 9/11, and subsequent more direct military intervention following the outbreak of civil war in Mali. The indirect intervention by the United States to build the capacity of local forces in Mali, where jihadists were based, failed because of the dissonant relationship between the two countries. This led the United States to intervene more directly in the region, including through its cooperation with and support for French and Nigerien forces. The nature of this more direct military intervention was also informed by evolving US experiences working by, with and through partner forces in other parts of the world.

Sister Citizens: Women in Syrian Rebel Governance

AbstractIn the rich literature on women and conflict, many scholars have assumed that the outbreak of civil war suppresses women's political involvement. However, during Syria's civil war, there was significant subnational and temporal variation in the involvement of women in the institutions established by armed groups and civilians in rebel-held areas. Why were some Syrian women able to secure a place for themselves in insurgent governance? How were they able to influence the form of local institutions to secure a role for women? Bringing together the scholarship on social movements and rebel governance, this article argues that two factors determine whether women were able to mobilize politically during conflict: the organizational capacity of women and the strength and ideology of locally active armed groups. The article leverages data on local organizations and institutions in Syria, Syrian news sources, and correspondence with several women's organizations operating in Syria in 2017. By doing so, this article strives to bring attention to the role of gender in the expanding literature on rebel governance. It also highlights the significance of armed groups’ ideologies, an aspect often dismissed in the literature in favor of a focus on material factors.

Discourse of Yemeni TV broadcasters and the dilemma of regime criticism, 2015–19

Abstract The discourse of the Yemeni TV broadcasters has undergone major changes since the Arab Spring in 2011. Moreover, since the outbreak of Civil War in 2015, this discourse has been diverse and has become a clear reflection of the contexts in which it is produced. This article analyses Yemeni media discourse by analysing the titles of news reports published on YouTube by five Yemeni TV channels belonging to five diversified discourses in terms of political, ideological, cultural and social orientation. The article adopts discourse framing as a methodological tool, with which we can address media discourse and thus reveal its social, political and cultural contexts. The article concludes that Yemeni TV broadcasters’ discourse depends on a limited number of keywords that have a cognitive and cultural balance in Yemeni society, words originally taken from cultural, religious and social backgrounds in the collective memory of Yemen. Knowing these keywords can be employed in different dimensions. While it can contribute to developing the recipient awareness, it can also help to raise the degree of professionalism in media performance in Yemen, especially in the stage of peace-building and post-war.

Mining and Environmental Degradation: a Gift Brings Grief Scenario for Mining Communities in Sierra Leone

Sierra Leone is blessed with abundant natural resources but yet prone to environmental degradation due to the mining operations. Most often, the mining communities are faced with social tensions, as a result of the possible trade-off between the expected employment impact and the cost of mining operations to the environment. Over the past decades, the contribution of the mining sector to the development of the country has been overshadowed by the fact that the mining operations have had adverse negative effects, mainly due to the country's weak environmental policies and the failure of the mine monitoring institutions, to supervise the operations of mining company operations. This article seeks to examine both the environmental and the social implication of mining operations on three mining edge communities in Sierra Leone. This paper also utilizes secondary data from the published articles, government’s reports, workshops and conference proceedings, policy documents of non-governmental organizations, newspapers, and the like to generate this writer's view on the topic under review. The thrust of the review will be on the following: Sierra Rutile Limited, Koidu Holdings Limited, and Shandong Iron Ore Mines. The above mining companies have been carefully selected due to the fact that they are located close to dwelling communities, and have been mining in Sierra Leone over a long period of time. The environmental performance index and the mining impact framework are used to clearly show the impact of mining operations on the environment in Sierra Leone. As a result of mining operations, deforestation is skyrocketing, public discomfort and air pollution has worsened, and social unrest has increased as a result of some unacceptable consequences including pollution of water source without recourse to short-term remedy. The literature reviewed by this writer reveals that the mining activities have two faces in Sierra Leone. One is that it serves as a resource curse. An example to this sad reality is the outbreak of civil war, social unrest among others. On the other hand, the mining sector is one of the principal backbones of the economy. It contributes to the livelihood of the country. This paper introduces three-way approaches of mining sector operation remedies that include but not limited to: 1) sound Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) adoption before mining operations starts; 2) carrying out Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA); 3) regular engagement with all stakeholders of mining-affected communities. This article recommends that restoration activities by mining companies go along with extraction and adequate compensation.