Outage Forecast System Research Articles

Space Diversity Mitigation Effects on Ionospheric Amplitude Scintillation With Basis on the Analysis of GNSS Experimental Data

Ionospheric density irregularities embedded in Equatorial Plasma Bubbles, with scale sizes varying from several hundred kilometers to several tens of meters, may cause amplitude and phase scintillation of transionospheric radio waves, degrading the performance and availability of space-based communication and navigation systems. A recent computer simulation study, based on ionospheric irregularities detected by the Planar Langmuir Probe onboard the Communication/ Navigation Outage Forecasting System satellite, analyzed the mitigation effects from space diversity on amplitude scintillation of transionospheric signals received on the ground. The present work, based on experimental data, will confirm and extend the previous results, indicating, in statistically quantitative terms, how space diversity, effective on uplink and downlink ground-satellite paths, particularly in the strong and saturated scintillation regimes, depends on Ionospheric Pierce Point dip-latitude and distance intervals, as well as on a well-known amplitude scintillation index.

Fading of Wideband Signals Due to Propagation Through Equatorial Plasma Bubbles and Diversity Mitigation Effects

Equatorial Plasma Bubbles (EPBs) and their ionospheric density irregularities exhibit structures with scale sizes that can vary from several hundred kilometers to tens of meters. These random irregularities degrade both the performance and the availability of space-based communication and navigation systems, in different ways. As examples of effects to be analyzed, wideband UHF (360 MHz – 380 MHz) transmissions received by Ascension Island (7.93°S, 14.25°W) monitors during an observational campaign in October 2016 displayed flat-fading and frequency-selective fading conditions. In this report, the ionospheric structures that are responsible for the harmful observed behavior (flat and frequency-selective fading) will initially be identified, through the application of a discrete version of the single phase-screen formulation to low-and high-resolution in-situ ion density data recorded by the Planar Langmuir Probe (PLP) onboard the Communications/ Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) satellite. Next, the resulting hypothesis will be confirmed, by the application of the continuous version of the same formulation to single-scale irregularities with different scale sizes. Finally, mitigation effects from space and frequency diversity on the observed behavior will be discussed, with basis on the application of the initial formulation to the high-resolution C/NOFS PLP data.

A Global Empirical Model of the Ion Temperature in the Ionosphere for the International Reference Ionosphere

This study presents a suggestion for improvement of the ion temperature (Ti) model in the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI). We have re-examined ion temperature data (primarily available from NASA’s Space Physics Data Facility (SPDF)from older satellites and combined them with newly available data from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP), the Communication Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS), and from the recently launched Ionospheric Connection Explorer (ICON). We have compiled these data into a unified database comprising in total Ti data from 18 satellites. By comparisons with long term records of ion temperature from the three incoherent scatter radars (ISRs) (Jicamarca, Arecibo, and Millstone Hill), it was found that an intercalibration is needed to achieve consistency with the ISR data and among individual satellite data sets. This database with thus corrected data has been used for the development of a new global empirical model of Ti with inclusion of solar activity variation. This solar activity dependence is represented by an additive correction term to the Ti global pattern. Due to the limited data coverage at altitudes above 1000 km, the altitude range described by the model ranges from 350 km to 850 km covering only the region where generally Ti is higher than the neutral temperature (Tn) and lower than the electron temperature (Te). This approach is consistent with the current description of Ti in the IRI model. However, instead of one anchor point at 430 km altitude as in the current IRI, our approach includes anchor points at 350, 430, 600, and 850 km. At altitudes above 850 km Ti is merged using a gradient derived from the model at 600 and 850 km, with the electron temperature described by the IRI-2016/TBT-2012 option. Comparisons with the ISR data (Jicamarca, Arecibo, Millstone Hill, and Kharkiv) for high and low solar activity and equinox show that the proposed Ti model captures local time variation of Ti at different altitudes and latitudes better than the current IRI-2016 Ti model.

Ion Cyclotron Resonant Absorption Lines in ELF Hiss Power Spectral Density in the Low‐Latitude Ionosphere

AbstractThe effects of multiple ion species have been observed in electromagnetic wave spectra in both the ionosphere and the magnetosphere. Here we report an event from Communication/Navigation Outage Forecast System satellite, showing a new imprint of various ion species in observations of extremely low frequency (ELF) hiss wave spectra near the equatorial ionosphere, which presents minima in the power spectral density at gyrofrequencies and their harmonics of multiple ion species (e.g., O and He ). Cyclotron harmonic resonant absorption is proposed to account for the observed spectral and polarization properties. Furthermore, the implication of using those wave power spectral minima to identify minor ion species in the ionosphere is discussed.

Low‐Latitude Whistler‐Wave Spectra and Polarization From VEFI and CINDI Payloads on C/NOFS Satellite

AbstractThe Communication/Navigation Outage Forecast System (C/NOFS) satellite's VEFI payload performed frequent recordings of the vector electric field in the band 0–16 kHz during the epoch 2008–2014. The Vector Electric Field Instrument (VEFI) was supported by ion‐composition data from the Coupled Ion Neutral Dynamics Investigation (CINDI) instrument. We focus here on statistics of these “burst‐mode” recordings, of which 6,890 (mostly ~12‐s duration) records meet stringent quality‐control criteria, allowing inference of the wave vector k and its orientation relative to the Earth's magnetic field B0. The 6,890 records occur between ±13° (geographic) latitude and between ~ 400‐ and 850‐km altitude, mostly in the topside ionosphere. The wave activity is dominated by terrestrial lightning. We analyze the whistler‐wave intensity and polarization for each pixel in the time‐frequency spectrogram for each record. We then gather weighted statistics on wave polarization, naturally weighted by wave intensity. In this manner we arrive at statistical results that represent the bulk of the energy flow due to whistler waves. Despite rather nonstationary statistics, we can reach three empirical results. We see no evidence of a low‐latitude suppression of whistler‐wave activity, in contrast to the predictions of models of transmission through a laminar ionosphere. The wave vector polar angle is always in the range 40° to 90° from parallel to B0. This indicates that the propagation at low latitudes is dominated by oblique, not ducted, whistlers. At the lowest magnetic latitudes, the wave vector polar angle with respect to B0 becomes nearly 90°.

Multi‐Instrumental Observation of Storm‐Induced Ionospheric Plasma Bubbles at Equatorial and Middle Latitudes

AbstractJune solstice is considered as a period with the lowest probability to observe typical equatorial plasma bubbles (EPBs) in the postsunset period. The severe geomagnetic storm on 22–23 June 2015 has drastically changed the situation. Penetrating electric fields associated with a long‐lasting southward IMF support favorable conditions for postsunset EPBs generation in the dusk equatorial ionosphere for several hours. As a result, the storm‐induced EPBs were progressively developed over a great longitudinal range following the sunset terminator. The affected area has a large longitudinal range of ~100° in the American sector and a rather localized zone of ~20° in longitude in the African sector. Plasma depletions of equatorial origin were registered at midlatitudes (30°–40° magnetic latitude) of both hemispheres in the African and American longitudinal sectors. We examine global features of the large‐scale plasma depletion by using a combination of ground‐based and space‐borne measurements—ground‐based Global Positioning System/Global Navigation Satellite System (GPS/GNSS) networks, Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) GPS Radio Occultation (RO), Swarm upward looking GPS data, and in situ plasma density observations provided by Swarm, Communications/Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS), and Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) missions. Joint analysis of the satellite observations revealed that these storm‐induced EPBs structures had extended over 500 km in altitude, at least from ~350 to ~850 km. These irregularities caused strong amplitude and phase scintillations of GPS/GNSS signals for ground‐based and space‐borne (COSMIC RO) measurements and seriously affected performance of navigation‐based services.

Global climatology of planetary boundary layer top obtained from multi-satellite GPS RO observations

Accurate estimation of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) top is essential for air quality prediction, weather forecast, and assessment of regional and global climate models. In this article, the long-term climatology of seasonal, global distribution of PBL is presented by using global positioning system radio occultation (GPSRO) based payloads such as Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC), Communication/Navigation Outage Forecast System (C/NOFS), TerraSAR-X, and The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) from the year 2006–2015. We used Wavelet Covariance Transform (WCT) technique for precise PBL top identification. The derived PBL top from GPSRO data is rigorously evaluated with GPS radiosonde data over Gadanki. Significant seasonal variation is noticed in both radiosonde and GPSRO observations. Further, we compared the PBL obtained GPS RO with global radiosonde network and observed very good correlation. The number of occultations reaching down to 500 m and retrieval rate of PBL top from WCT method is very high in mid-latitudes compared to tropical latitudes. The global distribution of PBL top shows significant seasonal variation with higher during summer followed by spring, fall, and minimum in winter. In the vicinity of Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the PBL top is high over eastern Pacific compared to other regions. The ERA-Interim reanalysis data underestimate the PBL top compared to GPS RO observations due to different measurement techniques. The seasonal variation of global averaged PBL top over land and ocean shows contrasting features at different latitude bands.

Coordinated Satellite Observations of the Very Low Frequency Transmission Through the Ionospheric D Layer at Low Latitudes, Using Broadband Radio Emissions From Lightning

AbstractBoth ray theory and full‐wave models of very low frequency transmission through the ionospheric D layer predict that the transmission is greatly suppressed near the geomagnetic equator. We use data from the low‐inclination Communication/Navigation Outage Forecast System satellite to test this semiquantitatively, for broadband very low frequency emissions from lightning. Approximate ground‐truthing of the incident wavefields in the Earth‐ionosphere waveguide is provided by the World Wide Lightning Location Network. Observations of the wavefields at the satellite are provided by the Vector Electric Field Instrument aboard the satellite. The data set comprises whistler observations with the satellite at magnetic latitudes <26°. Thus, our conclusions, too, must be limited to the near‐equatorial region and are not necessarily predictive of midlatitude whistler properties. We find that in most broadband recordings of radio waves at the satellite, very few of the lightning strokes result in a detectable radio pulse at the satellite. However, in a minority of the recordings, there is enhanced transmission of very low frequency lightning emissions through the D layer, at a level exceeding model predictions by at least an order of magnitude. We show that kilometric‐scale D‐layer irregularities may be implicated in the enhanced transmission. This observation of sporadic enhancements at low magnetic latitude, made with broadband lightning emissions, is consistent with an earlier review of D‐layer transmission for transmission from powerful man‐made radio beacons.

First Results From the Ionospheric Extension of WACCM‐X During the Deep Solar Minimum Year of 2008

AbstractNew ionosphere and electrodynamics modules have been incorporated in the thermosphere and ionosphere eXtension of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM‐X), in order to self‐consistently simulate the coupled atmosphere‐ionosphere system. The first specified dynamics WACCM‐X v.2.0 results are compared with several data sets, and with the Thermosphere‐Ionosphere‐Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIE‐GCM), during the deep solar minimum year. Comparisons with Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics satellite of temperature and zonal wind in the lower thermosphere show that WACCM‐X reproduces the seasonal variability of tides remarkably well, including the migrating diurnal and semidiurnal components and the nonmigrating diurnal eastward propagating zonal wavenumber 3 component. There is overall agreement between WACCM‐X, TIE‐GCM, and vertical drifts observed by the Communication/Navigation Outage Forecast System (C/NOFS) satellite over the magnetic equator, but apparent discrepancies also exist. Both model results are dominated by diurnal variations, while C/NOFS observed vertical plasma drifts exhibit strong temporal variations. The climatological features of ionospheric peak densities and heights (NmF2 and hmF2) from WACCM‐X are in general agreement with the results derived from Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC) data, although the WACCM‐X predicted NmF2 values are smaller, and the equatorial ionization anomaly crests are closer to the magnetic equator compared to COSMIC and ionosonde observations. This may result from the excessive mixing in the lower thermosphere due to the gravity wave parameterization. These data‐model comparisons demonstrate that WACCM‐X can capture the dynamic behavior of the coupled atmosphere and ionosphere in a climatological sense.

An Investigation of the Ionospheric Disturbances Due to the 2014 Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events Over Brazilian Sector

AbstractThe present study investigates the ionospheric F region response in the Brazilian sector due to sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events of 2014. The data used for this work are obtained from GPS receivers and magnetometer measurements during day of year (DOY) 01 to 120, 2014 at different stations in the equatorial and low‐latitude regions in the Brazilian sector. In addition, the data obtained from Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System satellites during DOY 01 to 75 of 2014 are used. The main novelty of this research is that, during the 2014 SSW events, daytime vertical total electron content (VTEC) shows a strong increase on the order of about 23% and 11% over the equatorial and low‐latitude regions, respectively. We also observed that the nighttime VTEC (SSW days) is increased by 8% and 33% over equatorial and low‐latitude regions, respectively. The magnetometer measurements show a strong counterelectrojet during the SSW days. The results show an amplification of the 0.5 day and ~2–16 day periods in the VTEC and equatorial electrojet during the SSWs. The occurrences of ionospheric irregularities during the SSW events are around 84% and 53% in the equatorial and low‐latitude regions, respectively, which is less frequent when compared with those during the pre‐SSW periods.

Study of the effect of 17–18 March 2015 geomagnetic storm on the Indian longitudes using GPS and C/NOFS

AbstractThe largest geomagnetic storm in solar cycle 24 occurred during 17–18 March 2015 where the main phase of the storm commenced from 07:00 UT of 17 March 2015 and reached the Dst negative minimum at 22:00 UT. The present paper reports observations of total electron content (TEC), amplitude, and phase scintillations from different GPS stations of India during the storm of 17 March and highlights its effects on GPS. It also presents the global equatorial spread F (ESF) occurrence during the storm using total ion density drift measurements from Communication and Navigation Outage Forecast System (C/NOFS) satellite. TEC enhancements were noted from stations along 77°E meridian around 10:00 UT on 17 March compared to 16 and 18 March indicating positive storm effects arising out of equatorward neutral wind in the local morning to noon sector of the main phase. Intense scintillation observations from Calcutta were most extensive during 15:00–16:00 UT, 17 March, and the receiver recorded a longitude deviation of 5.2 m during this time. Cycle slips of the order of 8 s could be observed during periods of intense phase scintillations on the same night. Intense scintillation observation from Palampur is an exceptional phenomenon attributed to the dramatic enhancement of the electric field due to prompt penetrating (undershielded) electric leading to a very high upward ion velocity over the magnetic equator as recorded by C/NOFS. The total ion density measured globally by C/NOFS reveals two distinct longitude regions of ESF occurrence during the storm: (i) East Pacific sector and (ii) Indian longitude during the storm. The time and longitude of ESF occurrence could be predicted using the time of southward turning of interplanetary magnetic field Bz.

An investigation of ionospheric upper transition height variations at low and equatorial latitudes deduced from combined COSMIC and C/NOFS measurements

In this study we propose the combination of topside in-situ ion density data from the Communication/Navigation Outage Forecast System (C/NOFS) along with the electron density profile measurement from Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere & Climate (COSMIC) satellites Radio Occultation (RO) for studying the spatial and temporal variations of the ionospheric upper transition height (hT) and the oxygen ion (O+) density scale height. The latitudinal, local time and seasonal distributions of upper transition height show more consistency between hT re-calculated by the profile of the O+ using an α-Chapman function with linearly variable scale height and that determined from direct in-situ ion composition measurements, than with constant scale height and only the COSMIC data. The discrepancy in the values of hT between the C/NOFS measurement and that derived by the combination of COSMIC and C/NOFS satellites observations with variable scale height turns larger as the solar activity decreases, which suggests that the photochemistry and the electrodynamics of the equatorial ionosphere during the extreme solar minimum period produce abnormal structures in the vertical plasma distribution. The diurnal variation of scale heights (Hm) exhibits a minimum after sunrise and a maximum around noon near the geomagnetic equator. Further, the values of Hm exhibit a maximum in the summer hemisphere during daytime, whereas in the winter hemisphere the maximum is during night. Those features of Hm consistently indicate the prominent role of the vertical electromagnetic (E×B) drift in the equatorial ionosphere.

Equatorial broad plasma depletions associated with the evening prereversal enhancement and plasma bubbles during the 17 March 2015 storm

AbstractBroad plasma depletions (BPDs) in the equatorial F region represent plasma depletions whose longitudinal and latitudinal scales are much greater than those of normal plasma bubbles. This study investigates the characteristics and origin of BPDs using the coincident ionospheric observations by the Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System, Defense Meteorological Satellite Program, and Swarm satellites during the 2015 St. Patrick's Day (17 March) storm. Two types of BPDs were detected before midnight during the main phase of the storm. One type of BPDs showed a gradual plasma density variation (Type 1), and the other type of BPDs showed a steep density gradient (Type 2) at the walls of BPDs. The Type 1 BPDs were detected with no signature of plasma bubbles nearby, whereas the Type 2 BPDs were accompanied by bubbles. The formation of the Type 1 BPDs is attributed to the uplift of the bottomside of the F region above the satellite altitude by the action of storm‐induced electric fields. The steep walls of Type 2 BPDs are associated with the ionospheric uplift and the spatial discontinuity of the ionosphere produced by bubbles. The detection of BPDs that are more than 15° wide in latitude by the polar orbit Swarm satellites arises from the elongation of bubbles along the magnetic field lines and the alignment of the elongation with the plane of the orbit.

Automated identification of discrete, lightning‐generated, multiple‐dispersed whistler waves in C/NOFS‐VEFI very low frequency observations

AbstractAutomated wave feature detection is required to efficiently analyze large archives of very low frequency broadband recordings for discrete whistler identification and feature extraction. We describe a new method to do this, even in the presence of simultaneous, multiple whistler phase dispersions. Previous techniques of whistler identification were unable to deal with simultaneous, multiple phase dispersions. We demonstrate the new method with data from the Vector Electric Field Investigation (VEFI) payload on the Communication/Navigation Outage Forecast System (C/NOFS) satellite, from the mission years 2008–2014.

Validation of NeQuick TEC data ingestion technique against C/NOFS and EISCAT electron density measurements

AbstractThis paper investigates a technique to estimate near‐real‐time electron density structure of the ionosphere. Ground‐based GPS receiver total electron content (TEC) at low and high latitudes has been used to assist the NeQuick 2 model. First, we compute model input (effective ionization level) when the modeled slant TEC (sTEC) best fits the measured sTEC by single GPS receiver (reference station). Then we run the model at different locations nearby the reference station and produce the spatial distribution of the density profiles of the ionosphere in the East African region. We investigate the performance of the model, before and after data ingestion in estimating the topside ionosphere density profiles. This is carried out by extracting in situ density from the model at the corresponding location of C/NOFS (Communication/Navigation Outage Forecast System) satellite orbit and comparing the modeled ion density with the in situ ion density observed by Planar Langmuir Probe onboard C/NOFS. It is shown that the performance of the model after data ingestion reproduces the topside ionosphere better up to about 824 km away from the reference station than that before adaptation. Similarly, for high‐latitude region, NeQuick 2 adapted to sTEC obtained from high‐latitude (Tromsø in Norway) GPS receiver and the model used to reproduce parameters measured by European Incoherent Scatter Scientific Association (EISCAT) VHF radar. It is shown that the model after adaptation shows considerable improvement in estimating EISCAT measurements of electron density profile, F2 peak density, and height.

The causal relationship between plasma bubbles and blobs in the low‐latitude F region during a solar minimum

AbstractPlasma density depletions (bubbles) and enhancements (blobs) with respect to the background ionosphere occur at night in the low‐latitude F region. Those phenomena are understood to be either causally linked or independent. The idea of the causal relationship between bubbles and blobs is on the basis of the observations of them in the same longitude. However, the occurrence of bubbles and blobs in the same longitude can also be just a coincidence. We investigate causal linkage of bubbles and blobs using the measurements of the ion density on 5 days in June 2008 and April 2009 by the Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System and CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload satellites. The observations during the solar minimum show that blobs occur in broader longitudes than do bubbles and occur in any longitudes regardless of the existence of bubbles. These observations indicate that a significant portion of blobs are not associated with bubbles. Even if some blobs are associated with bubbles, those blobs are indistinguishable from those produced by other sources. Therefore, the observations of bubbles and blobs at the same longitudes do not warrant their causal relationship. The independent behavior of bubbles and blobs rather indicates that their occurrences in the same longitudes are mostly coincidences. Considering the frequent occurrence of blobs near midnight, June solstice, and the solar minimum, medium‐scale traveling ionospheric disturbances are likely the major source of blobs. This idea is supported by the observations of blobs with the ionospheric disturbances in broad longitudes and latitudes.

An empirical model of the topside plasma density around 600 km based on ROCSAT‐1 and Hinotori observations

AbstractIt is an urgent task to improve the ability of ionospheric empirical models to more precisely reproduce the plasma density variations in the topside ionosphere. Based on the Republic of China Satellite 1 (ROCSAT‐1) observations, we developed a new empirical model of topside plasma density around 600 km under relatively quiet geomagnetic conditions. The model reproduces the ROCSAT‐1 plasma density observations with a root‐mean‐square‐error of 0.125 in units of lg(Ni(cm−3)) and reasonably describes the temporal and spatial variations of plasma density at altitudes in the range from 550 to 660 km. The model results are also in good agreement with observations from Hinotori, Coupled Ion‐Neutral Dynamics Investigations/Communications/Navigation Outage Forecasting System satellites and the incoherent scatter radar at Arecibo. Further, we combined ROCSAT‐1 and Hinotori data to improve the ROCSAT‐1 model and built a new model (R&H model) after the consistency between the two data sets had been confirmed with the original ROCSAT‐1 model. In particular, we studied the solar activity dependence of topside plasma density at a fixed altitude by R&H model and find that its feature slightly differs from the case when the orbit altitude evolution is ignored. In addition, the R&H model shows the merging of the two crests of equatorial ionization anomaly above the F2 peak, while the IRI_Nq topside option always produces two separate crests in this range of altitudes.

Topside equatorial ionospheric density, temperature, and composition under equinox, low solar flux conditions

AbstractWe present observations of the topside ionosphere made at the Jicamarca Radio Observatory in March and September 2013, made using a full‐profile analysis approach. Recent updates to the methodology employed at Jicamarca are also described. Measurements of plasma number density, electron and ion temperatures, and hydrogen and helium ion fractions up to 1500 km altitude are presented for 3 days in March and September. The main features of the observations include a sawtooth‐like diurnal variation in ht, the transition height where the O+ ion fraction falls to 50%, the appearance of weak He+ layers just below ht, and a dramatic increase in plasma temperature at dawn followed by a sharp temperature depression around local noon. These features are consistent from day to day and between March and September. Coupled Ion Neutral Dynamics Investigation data from the Communication Navigation Outage Forecast System satellite are used to help validate the March Jicamarca data. The SAMI2‐PE model was able to recover many of the features of the topside observations, including the morphology of the plasma density profiles and the light‐ion composition. The model, forced using convection speeds and meridional thermospheric winds based on climatological averages, did not reproduce the extreme temperature changes in the topside between sunrise and noon. Some possible causes of the discrepancies are discussed.

Wavelet-based analysis and power law classification of C/NOFS high-resolution electron density data

This paper applies new wavelet-based analysis procedures to low Earth-orbiting satellite measurements of equatorial ionospheric structure. The analysis was applied to high-resolution data from 285 Communications/Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) satellite orbits sampling the postsunset period at geomagnetic equatorial latitudes. The data were acquired during a period of progressively intensifying equatorial structure. The sampled altitude range varied from 400 to 800 km. The varying scan velocity remained within 20° of the cross-field direction. Time-to-space interpolation generated uniform samples at approximately 8 m. A maximum segmentation length that supports stochastic structure characterization was identified. A two-component inverse power law model was fit to scale spectra derived from each segment together with a goodness-of-fit measure. Inverse power law parameters derived from the scale spectra were used to classify the scale spectra by type. The largest category was characterized by a single inverse power law with a mean spectral index somewhat larger than 2. No systematic departure from the inverse power law was observed to scales greater than 100 km. A small subset of the most highly disturbed passes at the lowest sampled altitudes could be categorized by two-component power law spectra with a range of break scales from less than 100 m to several kilometers. The results are discussed within the context of other analyses of in situ data and spectral characteristics used for scintillation analyses.

Faith in a seed: on the origins of equatorial plasma bubbles

Abstract. Our faith in the seeds of equatorial plasma irregularities holds that there will generally always be density perturbations sufficient to provide the seeds for irregularity development whenever the Rayleigh–Taylor instability is active. When the duration of the time of the Rayleigh–Taylor instability is short, however, the magnitude of the seed perturbations can make a difference in whether the irregularities have a chance to grow to a strength at which the nonlinear development of plumes occurs. In addition, the character of the resulting irregularities reflects the characteristics of the initial seed density perturbation, e.g., their strength, spacing, and, to some extent, their spatial scales, and it is important to know the seeds to help determine the structure of the developed irregularities. To this end, we describe the climatology of daytime and early-evening density irregularities that can serve as seeds for later development of plumes, as determined from the Planar Langmuir Probe (PLP) plasma density measurements on the C/NOFS (Communication and Navigation Outage Forecast System) satellite mission, presenting their magnitude as a function of altitude, latitude, longitude, local time, season, and phase in the solar cycle (within the C/NOFS observation era). To examine some of the consequences of these density perturbations, they are used as initial conditions for the PBMOD PBMOD (Retterer, 2010a) 3-D irregularity model to follow their potential development into larger-amplitude irregularities, plumes, and radio scintillation. "Though I do not believe that a pla[sma bubble] will spring up where no seed has been, I have great faith in a seed. Convince me that you have a seed there, and I am prepared to expect wonders." – Henry David Thoreau