OTC Stocks Research Articles

Valuation and Taxation Regulations for Individual Donations of Unlisted OTC Stocks: Why Do the Same Items Have Different Prices?

Valuation and Taxation Regulations for Individual Donations of Unlisted OTC Stocks: Why Do the Same Items Have Different Prices?

Role of OTC options in stock price efficiency: Evidence from the Chinese market

AbstractWe examine the effect of Chinese OTC equity options on the underlying stock information efficiency by using the standardisation of the OTC options market as an exogenous event. The results show that, due to the tight short‐sale constraints, the introduction of OTC stock options can widen the divergence of opinion about the stock price, and thus reduce the price efficiency. The significantly lower margin‐debt ratio exhibited by optioned stocks supports the argument that OTC stock options act as a substitute for margin trading. Further analysis reveals that optioned stocks are more speculative, but there is no significant change in liquidity.

Identifying Stock Prices Using an Advanced Hybrid ARIMA-Based Model: A Case of Games Catalogs

At the beginning of 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic struck the world, affecting the pace of life and the economic behavioral patterns of people around the world, with an impact exceeding that of the 2008 financial crisis, causing a global stock market crash and even the first recorded negative oil prices. Under the impact of this pandemic, due to the global large-scale quarantine and lockdown measures, game stocks belonging to the stay-at-home economy have become the focus of investors from all over the world. Therefore, under such incentives, this study aims to construct a set of effective prediction models for the price of game stocks, which could help relevant stakeholders—especially investors—to make efficient predictions so as to achieve a profitable investment niche. Moreover, because stock prices have the characteristics of a time series, and based on the relevant discussion in the literature, we know that ARIMA (the autoregressive integrated moving average) prediction models have excellent prediction performance. In conclusion, this study aims to establish an advanced hybrid model based on ARIMA as an excellent prediction technology for the price of game stocks, and to construct four groups of different investment strategies to determine which technical models of investment strategies are suitable for different game stocks. There are six important directions, experimental results, and research findings in the construction of advanced models: (1) In terms of the experiment, the data are collected from the daily closing prices of game-related stocks on the Taiwan Stock Exchange, and the sample range is from 2014 to 2020. (2) In terms of the performance verification, the return on investment is used as the evaluation standard to verify the availability of the ARIMA prediction model. (3) In terms of the research results, the accuracy of the model in predicting the prices of listed stocks can reach the 95% confidence interval predicted by the model 14 days after the closing price, and the OTC stocks fall within the 95% confidence interval for 3 days. (4) In terms of the empirical study of the rate of return, the investors can obtain a better rate of return than the benchmark strategy by trading the game stocks based on the indices set by the ARIMA model in this study. (5) In terms of the research findings, this study further compares the rate of return of trading strategies with reference to the ARIMA index and the rate of return of trading strategies with reference to the monitoring indicator, finding no significant difference between the two. (6) Different game stocks apply for different technical models of investment strategies.

An analysis of over-the-counter and centralized stock lending markets

We provide new insights about centralized and OTC stock lending in the context of Tokyo Stock Exchange listed stocks from July 2006 to December 2009. We find that not only the demand drivers in the two markets are significantly different but also the pricing efficiency implications of the alternative markets are different. Specifically, we find that higher OTC stock lending activity is associated with greater pricing efficiency and better liquidity. The benefits of the centralized market on average is less clear, but when the OTC market is constrained, it is shown to relax short-sale constraints and improve liquidity.

The Twilight Zone: OTC Regulatory Regimes and Market Quality

We analyze a comprehensive sample of more than 10,000 U.S. stocks in the OTC market. As little is known about this market, we first characterize OTC firms by trading venue and provide evidence on survival, success, frequency of venue changes, reporting status, and trading activity. A large number of new firms appear on the OTC market each year. With few exceptions, these new firms exhibit poor performance and rarely rise to trade on traditional exchanges. We analyze how market liquidity, price efficiency and crash risk, all of which capture aspects of market quality, differ across OTC venues and firms subject to different regulatory regimes, including federal securities and state blue sky laws. We show that OTC firms that are subject to stricter regulatory regimes have higher market liquidity and price efficiency, and lower return skewness. We also analyze OTC market features that are potential substitutes for SEC registration, such as publication in a securities manual or state merit reviews, and provide evidence on their capital-market effects. This evidence is relevant in light of the JOBS Act and the ensuing relaxation of SEC registration requirements. Overall, our results suggest that investors consider information and regulatory differences when trading OTC stocks.

Short Selling in OTC Stocks: Information or Manipulation?

We examine short selling activity in OTC stocks using short selling volume and short interest data for a period from 2009 to 2016. We find that on average short volume constitutes 48% of daily trading volume in OTC stocks. Similar to exchange traded stocks, a portfolio with short position in stocks with high short selling volume and long position in stocks with low short selling volume has significant positive returns. Surprisingly, this positive return reverses over a period of next 1-month, indicating manipulative short selling. OTC stocks have higher short selling after a period of positive returns and on days of positive returns. Unlike exchange-traded stocks, short interest does not have predictive power for future returns. Short interest increases when the return over the past 15 days is positive, but it is lower for stocks with positive return over the last 1 year.

OTC Stock Market in China – The New Venture Capital Exit?

Abstract Venture capital is certainly important to a country in that it finances entrepreneurship and innovation. In recent years, secondary markets for private shares have emerged as an important node in the VC cycle by both facilitating interim liquidity for non-listed firms and providing external investors with the access to good pre-IPO shares. Ready and able to play an active role on both the exit and entry sides, are VCs more engaged in reducing or increasing their ownership in these markets? Based on a sample consisting of a total of 102 firms that have been quoted on China’s New Third Board from 2006 to 2011 year end, this paper finds that VCs were much more likely to increase than decrease their ownership – there have been 128 times of increases in contrast to 45 times of decreases. In particular, VCs actively took the opportunities of subscribing new shares issued in capital increases to increase their ownership. Out of the total 85 VCs that invested in the 102 firms, 33 were already there as of first quotation, 39 VCs subscribed new shares in capital increases, 33 VCs bought shares from existing shareholders, while only 11 exited. For the purposes of enhancing the attractiveness of the New Third Board as an exit venue, this paper argues that the market should work on increasing its liquidity from both the supply and the demand sides. As the successor of the New Third Board, the National Equities Exchange and Quotations largely manages to realize this by considerably broadening the pool of potential eligible firms and investors, and also by making available various additional mechanisms such as market making and call auctions to boost share transfers. As such, it is generally reasonable to argue that for those SMEs that are not yet able to directly list on public stock exchanges but are already in need for interim liquidity, the NEEQ does serve as a useful platform to achieve the purpose, and thus fills a gap in China’s VC cycle.

Cross-sectional return patterns in New Zealand’s registered and OTC stock markets

Purpose – This paper aims to examine whether the cross-sectional return patterns in New Zealand’s main stock market (NZSX) are also present in the alternative (NZAX) and over-the-counter (Unlisted) markets. Design/methodology/approach – Cross-sectional regressions of monthly stock returns on well-known pricing factors including firm size, book-to-market (B/M) ratio, liquidity and past returns were run. The NZSX sample commenced in 1988 and continued through to 2011, while data are available for the Unlisted and NZAX markets from 2004 to 2011. Findings – The pricing factors that are important in explaining returns in major international markets also influence returns on the NZSX. However, only B/M is consistently priced across all New Zealand stock exchanges, including the alternative NZAX and Unlisted markets. There is evidence of reversal in NZAX stocks, but liquidity effects are not consistent or pervasive in either market. Practical implications – With B/M being the only consistently priced variable across all markets, investors in the NZAX and in particular Unlisted may be concerned with other risk factors. For example, the risks associated with differing levels of investor protection, corporate governance and disclosure may be of more concern to investors than pricing factors such as size, liquidity and past returns in these alternative trading platforms. Originality/value – The paper examines cross-sectional return patterns of the NZAX and Unlisted stocks and is the first paper to jointly test the explanatory power of size, B/M, past returns and liquidity factors for NZSX stocks.

Do investors overpay for stocks with lottery-like payoffs? An examination of the returns of OTC stocks

We study returns on over-the-counter stocks and find that these returns are extremely negative on average. The distribution of OTC stock returns is highly positively skewed: while many of the stocks in our sample become worthless, a few do extremely well. We investigate whether this negative return premium can be rationalized by investors׳ preference for positively skewed payoffs. We show that the equilibrium model of Barberis and Huang (2008) provides a plausible explanation for the negative returns. We also show that OTC stocks that once traded on the regular exchanges perform much better than stocks that originate in the OTC markets.

Liquidity discount in the opaque market: The evidence from Taiwan's Emerging Stock Market

The decentralized OTC market is extremely illiquid and opaque in comparison with the exchange-listed stock market. Although liquidity risk has been well documented in the finance literature, little is known about how liquidity risk affects the stocks traded in the decentralized OTC market. In this study, we investigate liquidity risk on the cross section of stock returns in Taiwan's Emerging Stock Market (TESM), which is a typical decentralized OTC market. Liquidity risk is measured by the liquidity discount devised by Chen (2012). We empirically find that (i) firm-specific liquidity discounts hinge on the attributes pertaining to firm-specific and economic fundamentals; (ii) liquidity risk is priced in both OTC and exchange-listed stock markets, and the risk premia are material and increase when liquidity deteriorates; and (iii) the effect of the subprime crisis is more severe for stocks with high liquidity discounts, which partially explains the behavior of investors' flight-to-liquidity during the time of crisis.

The Twilight Zone: OTC Regulatory Regimes and Market Quality

We analyze a comprehensive sample of more than 10,000 U.S. OTC stocks. We provide much needed descriptive evidence on this market and show that the OTC market is a large, diverse, and dynamic trading environment with a rich set of regulatory and disclosure regimes, comprising venue rules and state laws beyond SEC regulation. We also exploit the institutional richness of the OTC market and analyze two key dimensions of market quality, liquidity and crash risk, across firms and regulatory regimes. We find that OTC firms that are subject to stricter regulatory regimes and disclosure requirements have higher market quality (higher liquidity and lower crash risk). Our analysis points to an important trade-off in regulating the OTC market and protecting investors: Lowering regulatory requirements (e.g., for disclosure) reduces the compliance burden for smaller firms, but also reduces market quality.

Do Investors Overpay for Stocks with Lottery-Like Payoffs? An Examination of the Returns on OTC Stocks

We study returns on Over-The-Counter stocks and we find these returns are extremely negative on average. The distribution of OTC stock returns is highly positively-skewed: while many of the stocks in our sample become worthless, a few do extremely well. We investigate whether this negative return premium can be rationalized by investors' preference for positively-skewed payoffs. We show that the equilibrium model of Barberis and Huang (2008) provides a plausible explanation for the negative returns. We also show that OTC stocks that once traded on the regular exchanges perform much better than stocks that originate in the OTC markets.

Pound Wise and Penny Foolish? OTC Stock Investor Behavior

We explore some commonly held beliefs about individuals investing in OTC stocks (those traded on OTCBB & Pink Sheets), a fairly pervasive activity. We frame our analysis within the context of direct gambling, aspirational preferences in behavioral portfolios, and private information. Contrary to popular perceptions, our modeling of the deliberate act of buying OTC stocks at a discount brokerage house finds that unlike the typical lottery buyers/gamblers, OTC investors are older, wealthier, more experienced at investing, and display greater portfolio diversification than their non-OTC investing counterparts. Behavioral portfolio investors (Shefrin and Statman, 2000) invest their money in layers, each of which corresponds to an aspiration or goal. Consistent with sensation seeking and aspirations in behavioral portfolios, OTC investors also display higher trading activity. Penny stocks seem to have different characteristics and trading behavior than other OTC stocks priced over one dollar. Trading in penny stocks is positively related to investor preference for lottery like stocks. Irrespective of the price of OTC stocks, we find little evidence of information content in OTC trades.

Common factors in liquidity: Evidence from Taiwan's OTC stock market

While liquidity plays an important role in market microstructure research, little previous work has been devoted to the common determinants of liquidity. In this study, we investigate common factors in liquidity by means of regression analysis using daily and intraday data in the Taiwan OTC stock market. Our empirical results based on the daily data provide evidence that market- and industry-wide effects do exist in Taiwan's OTC market. These common factors are also found in the intraday data, but the effectiveness of the factors is not the same among the different trading intervals.

Mandated Disclosure and Stock Returns: Evidence from the Over-the-Counter Market

Mandated disclosure requirements placed on publicly-traded firms constitute the core of U.S. securities regulation. Despite their importance, few empirical studies have been done on the impact of mandated disclosure requirements on the capital markets. Using a unique database created for this study, this paper examines the impact the 1964 imposition of mandated disclosure requirements had on the over-the-counter market in terms of stock returns, volatility and stock price synchronicity. Despite this being the only fundamental change in the scope of mandated disclosure in the U.S. in the twentieth century - with the exception of the initial securities acts of the 1930s - this regulatory change has never been examined. This study finds that there was a dramatic reduction in the volatility of OTC stock returns associated with the imposition of mandated disclosure. At the same time, there was no change stock price synchronicity associated with mandated disclosure. The evidence on stock returns is consistent with a positive abnormal return associated with the imposition of mandatory disclosure.

The Effect of Option Listing on Bid-Ask Spreads, Price Volatility, and Trading Activity of the Underlying OTC Stocks

This paper examines the changes in spreads, price volatility, and trading activity surrounding option listing for a sample of 144 OTC stocks. For this sample, both price volatility and volume increase, but the evidence on spreads is mixed. The increase in price volatility is attributed primarily to an increase in residual return variances. Furthermore, price volatility increases even after controlling for volume, insider trading, and spreads. Although these variables do not fully explain the causes for the increase in price volatility after option listing, the results suggest that liquidity trading or volume has a stronger effect on price volatility than insider trading. This study also finds that both the number of trades and institutional holdings show substantial increases, which are supportive of the notion that listing of options on OTC stocks attracts more attention.

The impact of option listing on the price volatility and trading volume of underlying OTC stocks

This paper examines the impact of an initial option listing on the price volatility and trading volume of underlying OTC stocks. The sample is divided by market value to determine whether larger firms are impacted differently by option listing than smaller firms. We find relative trading volume increases significantly, with the small and medium market value firms showing the largest gain. However, the tests show no evidence of changes in price volatility following option listing. No significant changes were found in either the firms' betas or variance following option initiation. The results provide further evidence that option listing does not destabilize the market for the underlying stock.

Issuance Expenses and Common Stock Offerings for Over-the-Counter Firms

This study explores the role of issuance expenses in explaining the fall in stock value for OTC stock offerings that raise cash for debt reduction purposes. It estimates that over half of the sample's -2.79% two-day fall in stock value can be accounted for by issuance expenses when using a lower bound measure of issuance expenses. This estimate contrasts with the one-fifth estimate suggested by NYSE/AMEX studies that examine stock offerings that raise cash primarily for non-debt reduction purposes. The influence of issuance expenses is shown to be substantially greater when combination offerings are deleted, an upper bound measure of issuance expenses is employed, or the sample is restricted to those offerings with the greatest issuance expenses per outstanding share.

A twist on the Monday effect in stock returns: A note

This study introduces business cycles to analyze a twist on the Monday effect and extends the analysis to OTC stocks. We find that OTC stocks do not share the same common twist on the Monday effect as exchange-listed stocks. For OTC stocks, the twist on the Monday effect is not a robust explanation of the negative returns on Mondays. For the S & P and NASDAQ indexes, periods of economic contraction experience a more pronounced negative returns on Mondays than expansionary periods following market declines. Following market advances, the negative returns on Mondays are insensitive to the level of economic activity.

Portfolio risk, adjustment costs, and security dealers' bid/ask spreads

This article notes that dealers' bid/ask spreads should vary directly with their costs of adjusting to inventory imbalances. Thus, well-diversified dealers are expected to quote lower bid/ask spreads on stocks with substantial total risk caused by undiversifiable risk. Furthermore, the effect of systematic risk on bid/ask spreads should be negligible if dealers are compensated for systematic risk by market returns. This article shows that, empirically, bid/ask spreads of OTC stocks are insensitive to the systematic risk of individual stocks—even when only stocks with stable betas are considered. Furthermore, bid/ask spreads are not sensitive to changes in market variance, as would be expected if systematic risk affected spreads. While unsystematic risk affects bid/ask spreads, its effect is pronounced for stocks traded by small, undiversified dealers. If stocks are only traded by large dealers with low diversification costs, unsystematic risk does not affect bid/ask spreads.