Optimum Currency Research Articles

Income convergence clubs in the Eurozone: a tale beyond the core/periphery divide

Purpose This paper aims to examine income convergence among the Euro members from 1995 to 2021. Design/methodology/approach This study uses Phillips and Sul’s test (2007, 2009) extended by Lyncker and Thoennessen’s (2017) algorithm jointly with β and σ – convergence analysis and a traditional growth equation. Findings This analysis identifies three clubs of countries in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita with notable disparities between and within them, which implies that the theory of optimal currency areas has not been fulfilled. Originality/value These results rule out the core/periphery divide as presented in the literature to date. Finally, by estimating an endogenous economic growth model, this study finds the primary factors underpinning the differences between the three stationary states: labor productivity, physical and human capital, investment and international trade.

Community-based economic romance and integration: assessing the feasibility of a currency union in South Asia

Purpose This purpose of this study aims to critically evaluate the feasibility of establishing a single currency area within the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) by examining the economic integration of its member states. The analysis focuses on the extent to which the region meets the criteria of the optimum currency area (OCA) theory, particularly in terms of business cycle synchronization, labor mobility and capital flows. Design/methodology/approach Using a vector autoregression (VAR) model within the aggregate demand-aggregate supply framework, this research investigates the symmetry of supply and demand shocks across SAARC economies. The study analyzes the synchronization of business cycles and the mobility of labor and capital to determine the readiness of SAARC for a unified currency. Findings The results indicate significant asymmetries in business cycles among SAARC countries, with substantial disparities in economic responses to shocks. These findings suggest that the region lacks the necessary economic synchronization required for a successful single currency area. Limited labor and capital mobility further complicate the potential for economic integration within SAARC. Research limitations/implications The study is constrained by data inconsistencies and the limited range of economic indicators available for SAARC countries. Future research should expand the analysis to include a broader set of socioeconomic factors and more comprehensive data sets to better assess the region’s potential for monetary integration. Practical implications The study highlights the challenges of forming a currency union in South Asia due to economic disparities and limited mobility. However, gradual steps toward deeper regional integration, improved financial infrastructure and enhanced cross-border collaboration could foster long-term economic stability, growth and social cohesion in the SAARC region. Social implications The research highlights the potential social benefits of enhanced economic integration, such as increased community resilience and social cohesion, while also warning of the risks associated with premature monetary union in a region with significant economic disparities. Originality/value This study provides a detailed analysis linking the theoretical framework of the OCA to the practical realities of economic integration in South Asia. By focusing on the specific economic conditions of SAARC member states, the research offers valuable insights for policymakers considering regional monetary integration.

The Economic Effects of Euro Adoption: An Analysis for the Czech Republic Using the Optimal Currency Area Theory

The Economic Effects of Euro Adoption: An Analysis for the Czech Republic Using the Optimal Currency Area Theory

Cross-country unemployment insurance, transfers, and trade-offs in international risk sharing

A prerequisite for an optimum currency area are limited divergent developments. In this paper, we assess analytically whether an international transfer mechanism can enhance consumption risk sharing and efficiency of the international division of production in a monetary union. We also derive quantitative results for a potential European unemployment benefit scheme (EUBS). A EUBS can provide risk sharing by stabilizing relative consumption and unemployment differentials. Following supply and government-spending shocks, however, a EUBS would additionally reduce allocative efficiency. The welfare effects of a EUBS hence depend on the underlying cause for cross-country differentials. A EUBS that is only active after specific shocks would maximize overall welfare. Even without such a selective activation, a EUBS would raise welfare in European Core countries in the quantitative model, leaving welfare in the Periphery almost unchanged. During the euro crisis, the Periphery would have benefited from substantial transfers from the Core.

Reformy instytucjonalne Unii Gospodarczej i Walutowej po 2010 r. – ocena zasadności i efektywności wprowadzonych rozwiązań na gruncie teorii optymalnych obszarów walutowych

INSTITUTIONAL REFORMS OF THE ECONOMIC AND MONETARY UNION IMPLEMENTED AFTER 2010: THE EFFECTIVENESS OF NEW ARRANGEMENTS ON THE GROUNDS OF THE THEORY OF OPTIMUM CURRENCY AREAS The economic shocks over the last 15 years revealed low effectiveness of macroeconomic adjustment mechanisms, as manifested by growing imbalances in the current accounts, public finances, and labour markets of the euro zone economies. The essence of the institutional reforms introduced after 2010 was to improve the mechanisms for stabilizing macroeconomic balances, as well as to increase the resilience of the EMU economies to future disturbances, especially those of a systemic nature. New solutions have a strong basis in the theory of optimum currency areas, as well as in institutional economics. The effects of the new institutional arrangements indicate a substantial improvement in the resilience of credit institutions to economic shocks, however, other macroeconomic risks remain.

Understanding and predicting monetary policy framework choice in developing countries

We examine the choice of monetary policy framework (MPF) of 87 countries over three decades (1985–2017). We confirm the importance of a range of factors including financial development, trade networks, strength of democracy, and size of the economy. We improve upon previous work on MPF choice by testing the model’s prediction accuracy on out-of-sample data, and addressing endogeneity. We also split the factors that determine MPF choice into three thematic groups: optimum currency area (OCA), financial strength, and political/institutional strength. This is the first paper to provide insight into which factors determine MPF choice for developing countries, utilising a relatively new MPF classification. We achieve an average prediction accuracy of approximately 67%, using two different cross-validation methods. This outperforms a naïve model, which assumes all countries belong to the most common category (discretion), and is good at predicting the less common categories as well.

Fuel Price Networks in the EU

This study deals with the evolution of fuels’ prices over time in the EU. The central research inquiry revolves around whether there exists any correlation among the trajectories followed by national prices in the gasoline and diesel markets. The EU, and more specifically the Euro-Area, by its construction, is treated as an OCA (Optimum Currency Area). In an OCA, certain conditions are met to ensure the smooth functioning of a common currency. The fuel price synchronization is essential because it contributes to the effective implementation of policies and promotes stability across the entire macroeconomy. The study covers the period of 2017–2022. For each type of fuel and year, we construct an individual network where network nodes represent the EU member states while the edges connecting these nodes represent strong temporal fuel price correlations among the member states. The properties of the resulting networks are analyzed within a Complex Network framework. Our goal is twofold: first, to detect any potential convergence or divergence in the trajectories of the prices, and second, to investigate the impact of tax and duty implementation on the co-movements of the prices. The empirical findings show that diesel markets have a more pronounced pattern of price co-movements compared to the gasoline markets. Moreover, the application of fuel taxation policies seems to adversely affect the co-movements of prices.

ONE HUNDRED YEARS OF EXCHANGE RATE ECONOMICS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO: 1892–1992

In this paper I analyze the work on exchange rates and external imbalances by University of Chicago faculty members during the university’s first 100 years, 1892 to 1992. Many people associate Chicago’s views with Milton Friedman’s advocacy for flexible exchange rates. But, of course, there was much more than that, including the work of J. Laurence Laughlin on bimetallism, Jacob Viner on the balance of payments, Lloyd Metzler on transfers, Harry Johnson on trade and currencies, Lloyd Mints on exchange rate regimes, Robert Mundell on optimal currency areas, and Arnold Harberger on shadow exchange rates, among others. The analysis shows that, although different scholars emphasized different issues, there was a common thread in this research, anchored on the role of relative prices’ changes during the adjustment process.

Exchange Rate Volatility and International Trade in Turkey

Purpose: The aim of the study was to investigate the exchange rate volatility and international trade in Malaysia. Methodology: This study adopted a desk methodology. A desk study research design is commonly known as secondary data collection. This is basically collecting data from existing resources preferably because of its low cost advantage as compared to a field research. Our current study looked into already published studies and reports as the data was easily accessed through online journals and libraries. Findings: Exchange rate volatility significantly impacts international trade by affecting exporters, importers, and trade volumes. It introduces uncertainty, raises hedging costs, and alters price competitiveness, leading to shifts in trade flows. While policymakers implement measures to manage volatility, their effectiveness is debated. Regional trade agreements can mitigate its impact, but challenges persist. Effective management of exchange rate volatility is essential for fostering stable international trade relationships. Unique Contribution to Theory, Practice and Policy: The theory of purchasing power parity (PPP), the theory of optimum currency areas (OCA) & the balassa- samuelson effect may be used to anchor future studies on the exchange rate volatility and international trade in Malaysia. Implement risk management strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of exchange rate volatility on international trade, including the use of financial derivatives, hedging instruments, and diversification strategies. Design and implement policies that strike a balance between exchange rate flexibility and stability, recognizing the trade-offs between exchange rate volatility and export competitiveness.

BRICS economic integration: Prospects and challenges

ABSTRACT Amid the evolving global economic landscape, the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) have emerged as proponents of economic multilateralism, challenging traditional paradigms of economic governance and integration. This article explores the prospects and challenges of economic integration among the BRICS nations, with specific reference to calls for an optimum currency area (OCA). With diverse economic capacities and global aspirations, these countries face significant challenges in policy coordination and structural alignment. This comprehensive literature analysis reveals the potential for and the complexity of achieving economic integration among the BRICS, underscoring the necessity for enhanced cooperation and policy harmonisation. Achieving economic integration, including the establishment of a common currency, requires an understanding of the national and collective economic goals, disparities and challenges. Offering insights into the BRICS’ role in reshaping the global economic system, this analysis contributes to the discourse on economic integration among developing and emerging economies.

Make-up of fiscal integration in the European Union

The present article aims to expose current trends in fiscal integration in the EU. Its milestones are brought forward, with particular attention being paid to the “NextGenerationEU” recovery plan, the latter constituting Brussels' key response to the socio-economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The article evaluates whether this program is going to remain a temporary phenomenon and to what extent it can define the “new normal” for the Economic and Monetary Union. Due to the Ukrainian crisis, the suggestions are spelled out more insistently to provide Brussels with “fiscal capacity” or permanent fiscal mechanisms that could repel emerging challenges and threats. The question that is considered here is whether we can expect such perpetual tools to become future elements of a full-scale fiscal union, bringing the euro area closer to the contours of an optimum currency area. The influence of European institutions as initiators of the integration process and the involvement of non-governmental players in it have received wider coverage in the specialized literature. Thus, in this case the role played in the process of fiscal integration by national governments is explored in more detail. For this purpose, the theory of multilevel governance and, in particular, its “dynamic” version are applied. It proves useful for identifying cases and ways in which governments can maintain control over decisions made within the integration system. The analysis confirmed that the Union has no plans to increase the issuance of the EU debt in order to replace national borrowing, or to transfer taxes from the national to the supranational level. It can be expected that in the future more active EU borrowing in financial markets will be accompanied by the measure of institutional flexibility which has now been achieved due to an intergovernmental compromise. At the same time temporary tools like NGEU and SURE are unlikely to lead to the fiscal union being completely federalized.

Integrated Approach to Currency Factor Investing

Using the G10 universe of currencies, we evidence that parametric portfolio policies can help guide an optimal currency strategy when tilting towards cross-sectional factor characteristics. While currency carry serves as the main return generator in this tilting strategy, the two characteristics momentum and value are implicit diversifiers to potentially balance the downside of carry investing in flight-to-quality shifts of FX investors. Drawing insights from a currency timing strategy according to time series predictors, we further examine the parametric portfolio policy's ability to mitigate the downside of the carry trade by incorporating an explicit currency factor timing element. This integrated approach to currency factor investing outperforms a naive equally weighted benchmark as well as univariate and multivariate parametric portfolio policies.

The Impact of a Common Currency on the European Union

This study examines the ramifications of adopting a common currency within the European Union (EU), focusing on introducing the euro. Initially prompted by optimistic expectations of economic stimulation and balanced budgets, the research critically assesses the economic, trade, and policy dimensions associated with a unified currency. Utilizing Mundell's optimal currency regions concept, the methodology establishes prerequisites for a successful monetary union, emphasizing vulnerability to macroeconomic shocks, labor market flexibility, and intra-regional commerce. Findings reveal that while a common currency eliminates foreign exchange expenses, reduces uncertainty in bilateral exchange rates, and facilitates investments, member states must sacrifice autonomy in monetary and exchange rate policies. The advantages include streamlined cross-border payments, enhanced trade, and improved movement of labor and products, while the drawbacks involve rigid monetary policies and limitations on policy tailoring to specific economic conditions.
 To maximize benefits, the research proposes measures such as deepening economic integration, ensuring macroeconomic stability, and promoting political unity. The study emphasizes the importance of sound economic policies to complement the adoption of a common currency and mitigate potential challenges. In conclusion, the research offers a comprehensive understanding of the advantages and disadvantages associated with a common currency in the EU, providing a roadmap for effective navigation and suggesting interventions to ensure successful implementation.

Optimum Currency Area in the Eurozone

AbstractWe used a Bayesian dynamic factor model (BDFM) to examine the share of variance explained by the European and country factors for 59 regions in Eurozone countries in the period from 1992 to 2020. The BDFM output facilitated the construction of a criterion that enables the assessment of the cost of participation in the European Monetary Union, which is directly related to the optimum currency area theory. Over the examined period, we observed business cycle divergence, with 46 regions experiencing a drop in the share of variance explained by the European factor from 1992–2005 to 2006–2020. However, the analysis over shorter time spans demonstrated that all the regions decoupled from the European business cycle. The results contradict the predictions of "The European Commission View". On the one hand, two predictions stemming from "The Krugman View" are supported by the results: the European regions experienced a slight increase in sectoral specialization, and they experienced business cycle divergence. On the other hand, the data does not support the notion that the ongoing specialization was the underlying cause of this divergence.

Would the Euro Area Benefit from Greater Labor Mobility?

We assess how within euro area labor mobility impacts economic dynamics in response to shocks. In the analysis we use an estimated two-region monetary union dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that allows for a varying degree of labor mobility across regions. We find that, in contrast with traditional optimal currency area predictions, enhanced labor mobility can either mitigate or exacerbate the extent to which the two regions respond differently to shocks. The effects depend crucially on the nature of shocks and variable of interest. In some circumstances, even when it contributes to aligning the responses of the two regions, labor mobility may complicate monetary policy tradeoffs. Moreover, the presence and strength of financial frictions have important implications for the effects of labor mobility. If the periphery’s risk premium is more responsive to its indebtedness than our estimates, there are various shocks for which labor mobility may help stabilize the economy. Finally, the euro area’s economic performance following the Global Financial Crisis would not have been necessarily smoother with enhanced labor mobility.

). The competitiveness disparity between core and peripheral EU countries: an empirical analysis with panel ARDL approach

Purpose- This study empirically investigates whether there is an asymmetry between the competitiveness of the core and peripheral EU countries in the post-monetary union period, which includes the public debt crisis. Methodology- This paper analyzes the long and short-term effects of the interest rate for public bond yields and real effective exchange rate on public debt in core (Germany, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, and the Netherlands) and peripheral (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain) EU countries using the panel linear Autoregressive Distributive Lag model. In the study, second-generation unit root tests, Westerlund's (2007) cointegration test, and short and long-term MG, PMG, and DFE panel econometric methods are employed. Findings- According to the primary findings of the study: (i) while the interest rate for public bond yields is not effective on public debt in core EU countries, it has an increasing effect on public debt with a high positive coefficient in peripheral EU countries. (ii) The long-term coefficient of the real effective exchange rate in the peripheral EU countries is higher than in the core EU countries. According to this conclusion, the increase in the real effective exchange rate augments the public debt of the peripheral EU countries at a higher level than the core EU countries. Conclusion- Contrary to the monetarist approach that relies on the role of one last funder, these findings contribute to the literature by supporting the first two conditions of the Optimum Currency Area, the Varieties of Capitalism, Comparative Political Economy, and Fundamentalist approaches, which reveal the asymmetrical structure between the competitiveness of the core and peripheral EU countries. Keywords: EMU public debt crisis, core EU countries, peripheral EU countries, panel ARDL model, competitiveness differences JEL Codes: C45, F45, N14, N24

Monetary union in Southeast Asia: An assessment of the optimum currency area theory*

AbstractThis paper applies optimum currency area (OCA) theory to Southeast Asia to assess the potential for a monetary union in that region. We construct a panel of 10 Southeast Asian countries over the period 1990–2018 and apply the dynamic OLS estimator to quantify the costs and benefits of a potential OCA. A possible monetary union in Southeast Asia is vulnerable to asymmetric shocks, although the degree of specialisation has decreased and the openness index increased. Estimates confirm that both OCA criteria favour an increase in the region's income and FDI inflows and a reduction of its unemployment rate. However, inadequate labour mobility and stagnating intra‐trade shares are major obstacles in this regard, but if addressed they could benefit economic development and GDP per capita in the ASEAN region. We conclude that Southeast Asia is far from being an optimum currency area, but if it were to form a common currency area, the loss of economic sovereignty and its costs would be more than offset by the resulting monetary efficiency gain.

Evolusi Penggunaan Mata Uang Lokal Dalam Kerja Sama ASEAN Studi Kasus Indonesia, Malaysia, Dan Thailand

By exploring international cooperation between Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia in the use of local currency through the Local Currency Settlement (LCS) framework, this research details the deeper context regarding concerns regarding dependence on the US Dollar after the 2016-2017 financial crisis. with an emphasis on the development of the use of local currencies after the Asian crisis of 1997-1998. This research reveals that one of the main criteria for establishing an optimal currency area (OCA) is exchange rate stability. In looking at the research results, a positive evolution of the use of local currencies in post-crisis ASEAN cooperation is illustrated, especially through the LCS initiative involving Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia. Although LCS implementation trends show positivity, further improvement is identified as an urgent need to bring it in line with total trade between countries. Hope lies in the LCS collaboration which is expected to strengthen currency stability, spur economic growth and increase trade activity in the region. Thus, this research provides valuable insight into the urgency of regional cooperation in managing dependence on global currencies, especially the US Dollar.

Target2: The Silent Bailout System That Keeps the Euro Afloat

Target2 is the Eurozone’s cross-border payment system, which is mandatory for the settlement of euro transactions involving Eurozone central banks. It is being used to save the Eurozone from imploding. A key underlying problem is that the Eurozone does not satisfy the economic conditions for being an Optimal Currency Area, i.e., a geographical area over which a single currency and monetary policy can operate on a sustainable, long-term basis. The different business cycles in the Eurozone, combined with poor labour and capital market flexibility, mean that systematic trade surpluses and deficits will build up because inter-regional exchange rates can no longer be changed. Surplus regions need to recycle the surpluses back into deficit regions via transfers to keep the Eurozone economies in balance. But the largest surplus country—Germany—refuses to formally accept that the European Union is a ‘transfer union’. However, deficit countries, including the largest of these—Italy—are using Target2 for this purpose. Target2 has become a giant credit card for Eurozone members that import more than they export to other members, but with two differences compared with normal credit card debt: neither the debt nor the interest that accrues on the debt ever needs to be repaid. Furthermore, the size of the deficits being built up is causing citizens in deficit countries to lose confidence in their banking systems, leading them to transfer their funds to banks in surplus countries. Target2 is also being used to facilitate this capital flight. However, these are not viable long-term solutions to systemic Eurozone trade imbalances and weakening national banking systems. There are only two realistic outcomes. The first is a full fiscal and political union, with Brussels determining the levels of tax and public expenditure in each member state—which has long been the objective of Europe’s political establishment. The second outcome is that the Eurozone breaks up.

Correlations of structural shocks, dynamic responses of output and inflation to commodities price shocks and monetary union in WAMZ

PurposeThis paper examines correlations of the underlying structural shocks and the degree of synchronization in the impulse responses of output, inflation and trade to a one standard deviation shock to non-oil commodities price index and exchange rates within the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) countries from 1990q1 to 2020q1.Design/methodology/approachThis paper uses the structural vector autoregressive model to isolate the underlying structural shocks and compares them with the West African Monetary Union (WAEMU) countries.FindingsFindings from the study suggest that correlations of underlying structural shocks are more profound in the WAEMU than in the WAMZ. Impulse responses of output to price and exchange rate shocks are more symmetric in the WAEMU than in the WAMZ. However, impulse responses of inflation to price and exchange rate shocks are symmetric in the WAMZ than in the WAEMU and responses of trade in both sub-groups are not uniform.Practical implicationsThe paper concludes that the WAMZ does not constitute an Optimum Currency Area concerning the correlations of the structural shocks and output. However, it has achieved convergence in inflation and there are adequate adjustment mechanisms to shocks in the WAMZ than in the WAEMU. Therefore, the WAMZ may not suffer from joining the monetary union. Thus, economic Community of West African States may take steps to roll out the monetary union.Originality/valueThe paper examines correlations of the underlying structural shocks, impulse responses of output and inflation to shocks to commodities price and exchange rates in the WAMZ and compares them with the WAEMU.