Abstract. Climate change is closely related to human lives. With the development of information technology, meteorological data gradually show the characteristics of big data. The purpose of this study is to compare the application effects of different machine learning models in short-term precipitation prediction, to improve the accuracy and efficiency of prediction. Based on the annual average precipitation data of prefecture-level cities in China from 1990 to 2022, this paper uses Random Forest, eXtreme Gradient Boosting and Neural Networks to construct prediction models, and comprehensively evaluate them. In this study, the data is preprocessed to ensure the data quality of the input model. Next, the data is fed into three machine learning algorithm models, Random Forest, eXtreme Gradient Boosting and Neural Networks. Finally, the prediction performance of each model is evaluated by various indexes. In this paper, it is found that the Random Forest model has the best performance, and its prediction accuracy is higher than the other two models, which has great application potential in the field of short-term precipitation prediction. This study shows that a reasonable selection of machine learning methods and optimization of model parameters can effectively improve the accuracy of short-term precipitation prediction. This paper provides some empirical evidence for precipitation prediction, which will help to make more effective decisions in dealing with extreme weather events and climate change challenges in the future.
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