Optimistic Criteria Research Articles

An Integrated Approach to Green Mines Based on Hesitant Fuzzy TOPSIS: Green Degree Analysis and Policy Implications

China proposes to construct green mines as one of the significant means to elevate the green degree of mining industry and protect the mining environment. This paper constructs six evaluation indicators, namely mine environment, Resource development mode, Comprehensive utilization of resources, Energy conservation and emission reduction, Technological innovation and digital mining, Enterprise management and corporate image, to reflect green degree of mining firms. An improved multiattribute evaluation method (MAEM) is proposed based on hesitant fuzzy TOPSIS and kernel method. A case study of green mining firms in Panxi, southwestern China is provided to demonstrate the application of the proposed model. According to the research in this paper, it is more appropriate to expand the data in accordance with the optimistic criteria. The results also show that the improved hesitant fuzzy TOPSIS is a better method in the evaluation of green degree. Through the results of this paper, a reasonable and scientific method is introduced for the evaluation of the green degree of mining firms, and it can be promoted to the evaluation of the mineral resource development efficiency.

A new D numbers’ integration rule based on pessimistic criterion

For D numbers theory, there are some drawbacks in the D numbers’ integration rule. For example, the missing information is ignored in the final decision judgment for multi-attribute decision (MADM). For this problem, some researchers have improved the D numbers’ integration rules based on optimistic criterion for overcoming the shortcoming of D numbers’ integration rule. However, optimistic and pessimistic criterion are two sides of the coin for fuzzy environment. Therefore, in this article, a new D numbers’ integration rules based on pessimistic criterion is proposed. We improve the D numbers’ integration rules to redefine the missing information distribution rules based on pessimistic criterion. The missing information is distributed in inverse proportion to each D number according to the size of the original evidence credibility. Two examples of MADM is applied by the proposed method, the results show that the proposed method can be applied to MADM.

ПОСТРОЕНИЕ СОСТАВНЫХ КРИТЕРИЕВ ДЛЯ ОПТИМИЗАЦИИ ТЕРМОВ И ОБОБЩЕННОГО ПОКАЗАТЕЛЯ БАЗ ЗНАНИЙ ИНТЕЛЛЕКТУАЛЬНЫХ СИСТЕМ

The purpose of the research is to develop the concept of systematization of the knowledge base and solving problems of information cybersecurity of systems and when making search decisions based on the construction of a structured semantic content model of terms of a scientific and theoretical nature describing complex active systems. Research methods: statistical analysis, hypothesis testing methods, machine learning methods, reliability models, evaluation type models used in testing reliability indicators, parameters of behavioral systems. The result obtained: The result obtained: experimental results of the application of reliability evaluation models and consent criteria to different sizes of knowledge bases are discussed and the evaluation of the results of measuring the reliability index on these components, taking into account the failure rate, is given. The description of generalized algorithms for the functioning of evaluation and forecasting components, as well as their applicability to solving problems in the field of information security, is given. A general model of a spatial network is proposed, within the framework of which the subject carries out risk management by effectively, in one sense or another, distributing the homogeneous resource at his disposal between its nodes. For the implementation of decision-making, more optimistic criteria than the minimax criterion are recommended. Scientific novelty: consists in the development of mathematical models to maintain the logical and physical integrity of the knowledge bases of cybersystems using the desirability function and consent criteria. The basic requirements for ensuring reliable behavior and operability of an information system using oriented databases are highlighted and described. It is postulated that the best information system reliability is achieved through the use of automated monitoring systems using knowledge bases for continuous monitoring and periodic analysis of cybersystem objects with tracking the dynamics of changes in the event space.

Balancing irrigation planning and risk preference for sustainable irrigated agriculture: A fuzzy credibility-based optimization model with the Hurwicz criterion under uncertainty

The challenge of irrigation planning is that it involves various system components, which is further exacerbated by uncertainties and risk preference in making decisions. This study presents a simulation-optimization framework under uncertainty by incorporating fuzzy credibility-based optimization model with the Hurwicz criterion and daily water balance simulation for irrigation planning. The developed methodology can effectively handle fuzzy uncertainty in the objective function and constraints and readily analyze tradeoffs between optimal solutions of irrigation planning and risks associated with the decision-makers’ preferences. It can also derive several physical parameters expressed as water depth from the water balance of root zone for determining optimal irrigation water amount. The Hurwicz criterion, fuzzy credibility constraints and other irrigation-related constraints are imposed on the study system through the developed framework. Then, its applicability is illustrated with a real case study in the Jiefangzha irrigation subarea in the Hetao Irrigation District, northwest China, which is an arid area. Optimal results using three risk-related parameters, i.e., nine preference weights (λ = 0.1, 0.2, … and 0.9) of objective function, and three credibility levels (α = 0.7, 0.8 and 0.9, β = 0.7, 0.8 and 0.9) of fuzzy constraints, have been generated for supporting irrigation planning. Based on these outcomes, system benefits resulting from agricultural production have a slight growth with preference weights increase from 0.1 to 0.9, showing that optimistic criterion plays a decisive role in optimal irrigation planning solutions, especially when preference weights are greater than 0.7. Daily groundwater depth is presented in the given 81 scenarios for comparison, showing the usefulness of the developed framework in practical applications. Therefore, these findings are helpful for supporting irrigation planning and balancing tradeoffs between irrigation planning and risk preference for sustainable irrigated agriculture.

Study on mechanism and application of water resources system adaptability under changing environment

Abstract The water resources system is in a vulnerable situation because of the influence of climate change and the changing environment. The adaptation mechanism was discussed through the analysis of the process of passive response, adaptation and even active adjustment of water resources system under changing environment. The adaptability of the water resources system can be described as natural resilience (NR) of natural system and artificial adaptation (AA) social (artificial) system. The natural resilience indexes were identified and analyzed from the aspects of water quantity, water quality and water ecology. The artificial adaptation indexes were identified and analyzed from the aspects of resource, eco-environment, socio-economic and technical factors. On this basis, the index system was constructed in accord with process mechanism of water resources system adaptability. Besides, to address the two-dimension factors of water resources system adaptability, a method of system analysis based on connection numbers–fuzzy risk matrix was proposed based on the theory of risk matrix. The synthesis interval [Apess, Aopt] of water resources system adaptability is obtained, by defining the pessimistic criterion when two-dimension factors meet the evaluation standard at the same time, and the optimistic criterion when either of the two-dimension factors meets evaluation standard. Finally, the case study in the Huaihe River basin in China was carried out. The results show that the adaptability level of water resources system in the Huaihe River basin expressed fluctuating uprising tendency in 2006–2015. The adaptability level is the lowest [1.856, 2.625] in 2009, the highest [2.500, 3.536] in 2015.

Robust adaptive least squares polynomial chaos expansions in high‐frequency applications

AbstractWe present an algorithm for computing sparse, least squares‐based polynomial chaos expansions, incorporating both adaptive polynomial bases and sequential experimental designs. The algorithm is employed to approximate stochastic high‐frequency electromagnetic models in a black‐box way, in particular, given only a dataset of random parameter realizations and the corresponding observations regarding a quantity of interest, typically a scattering parameter. The construction of the polynomial basis is based on a greedy, adaptive, sensitivity‐related method. The sequential expansion of the experimental design employs different optimality criteria, with respect to the algebraic form of the least squares problem. We investigate how different conditions affect the robustness of the derived surrogate models, that is, how much the approximation accuracy varies given different experimental designs. It is found that relatively optimistic criteria perform on average better than stricter ones, yielding superior approximation accuracies for equal dataset sizes. However, the results of strict criteria are significantly more robust, as reduced variations regarding the approximation accuracy are obtained, over a range of experimental designs. Two criteria are proposed for a good accuracy‐robustness trade‐off.

Efficiency evaluation and ranking of supply chains based on stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis and data envelopment analysis

AbstractEvaluating performance of supply chains has been an important topic in supply chain management for researchers and practitioners. In this study, we integrate stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA) technique and data envelopment analysis (DEA) methodology and propose a model, named “two‐stage SMAA‐DEA,” for efficiency evaluation and ranking of two‐stage supply chains (e.g., supplier–manufacturer) with stochastic criteria values. Two stochastic efficiency measures are defined for supply chain efficiency evaluation in the model. The maximum efficiency is the best efficiency score based on the optimistic criterion. The average efficiency is the expected efficiency score based on the average criterion. In addition, the model provides rank acceptability and holistic acceptability index for the supply chain ranking. The developed two‐stage SMAA‐DEA model has several advantages. First, it extends two‐stage DEA models to handle uncertain or imprecise inputs, intermediate measures, and outputs using stochastic distributions. Second, it allows for variable process weights and does not need any prior preference information on processes. Our study extends network DEA to address uncertain or stochastic measures, and the model can be considered as a multicriteria decision‐making method with a two‐stage additive DEA value function. An empirical study evaluating 27 supply chains is presented to illustrate the proposed models.

Accounting for multiplicity in calculating eta Earth

ABSTRACT Using the updated exoplanet population parameters of our previous study, which includes the planetary radius updates from Gaia DR2 and an inferred multiplicity distribution, we provide a revised η⊕ calculation. This is achieved by sampling planets from our derived population model and determining which planets meet our criterion for habitability. To ensure robust results, we provide probabilities calculated over a range of upper radius limits. Our most optimistic criterion for habitability provides an η⊕ value of $0.34\pm 0.02 \frac{\rm planets}{\rm star}$. We also consider the effects of multiplicity and the number of habitable planets each system may contain. Our calculation indicates that $6.4\pm 0.5{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ of GK dwarfs have more than one planet within their habitable zone. This optimistic habitability criterion also suggests that $0.036\pm 0.009{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ of solar-like stars will harbour five or more habitable planets. These tightly packed highly habitable systems should be extremely rare, but still possible. Even with our most pessimistic criterion, we still expect that $1.8\pm 0.2{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ of solar-like stars harbour more than one habitable planet.

Optimal design of distributed energy resource systems under large-scale uncertainties in energy demands based on decision-making theory

This study focuses on the optimal design of distributed energy resource systems with consideration of large-scale uncertainty of energy demands based on decision- making theory. Five integrated modeling and optimization frameworks are developed through the combined use of mixed integer linear programming and uncertainty decision-making criteria (including optimistic criterion, pessimistic criterion, Hurwicz criterion, Laplace criterion, and minimax regret criterion). Superstructure-based mixed integer linear programming models are used for the optimal design and optimal operation of the system where the objective function is to minimize the annual cost. The uncertainty of energy demands is represented by assuming a set of possible scenarios. The proposed methods are applied to the planning of a distributed energy resource system for a hotel in city of Guangzhou, China and their validity and effectiveness are verified. Results show that each method has its specific feature. Optimistic method is risky and recommends a relative small-scale system, while pessimistic method is conservative presenting a relative large-scale system. Hurwicz method is with great subjectivity, making different decisions at different values of optimism coefficient. Both Laplace method and minimax regret method identify a moderate-scale system as the best alternative. Sensitivity analyses on the energy demand scenarios are conducted and results show that the five methods have high sensitivity to the choice of scenarios.

Optimal investment decision making on the model of production enterprise with limited resources

Investments are among the most important factors of national economic growth. Selection of optimal investment project is the first priority for any enterprise with limited financial resources. This study is dedicated to a choice among mutually exclusive projects, which are impossible to complete partially, so, one project must be chosen and all others must be rejected. An investor must find among all possible projects the one that allows to better achieve all investor’s aims. A mathematical model of multi-purpose multi-criteria investor decision making is proposed for investment project selection problem. Efficiency and riskiness of studied projects are evaluated using such indicators as profit, rate of return, payback period, marginal cost of capital, also taking into account subjective characteristics, namely the investor’s attitude towards financial risks, importance assessment of decision making criteria, etc. Decision making assessment methods for the situations of risk and uncertainty are applied to resolve the problem of optimal project selection, such as Wald’s pessimistic criterion, maximax optimistic criterion, as well as Hurwicz’s, Laplace’s, Bayes- Laplace, Hodges-Lehmann criteria, and Savage’s minimax risk criterion. Calculations carried out and results obtained indicate that the best investment project chosen that way will provide the highest absolute profit, despite certain disadvantages such as lower rate of return, longer payback period and higher risk than other projects.

The $$\alpha $$ α -cost minimization model for capacitated facility location-allocation problem with uncertain demands

Facility location-allocation problem aims at determining the locations of some facilities to serve a set of spatially distributed customers and the allocation of each customer to the facilities such that the total transportation cost is minimized. In real life, the facility location-allocation problem often comes with uncertainty for lack of the information about the customers' demands. Within the framework of uncertainty theory, this paper proposes an uncertain facility location-allocation model by means of chance-constraints, in which the customers' demands are assumed to be uncertain variables. An equivalent crisp model is obtained via the $$\alpha $$ ? -optimistic criterion of the total transportation cost. Besides, a hybrid intelligent algorithm is designed to solve the uncertain facility location-allocation problem, and its viability and effectiveness are illustrated by a numerical example.

Policy iteration for bounded-parameter POMDPs

POMDP is considered as a basic model for decision making under uncertainty. As a generalization of the exact POMDP model, the bounded-parameter POMDP (BPOMDP) provides only upper and lower bounds on the state-transition probabilities, observation probabilities and rewards, which is particularly suitable for characterizing the situations where the underlying model is imprecisely given or time-varying. This paper presents the optimistic criterion for optimality for solving BPOMDPs, under which the optimistically optimal value function is defined. By representing a policy explicitly as a finite-state controller, we propose a policy iteration approach that is shown to converge to an $$\epsilon$$ -optimal policy under the optimistic optimality criterion.

Methodology for developing channel disassembly criteria under severe accident conditions for PHWRs

This paper presents a methodology to develop a model for disassembly of the coolant channels in Pressurized Heavy Water Reactors under severe accident conditions. This model gives criteria to decide when under severe accident condition coolant channels will rupture due to deterioration in material properties at high temperatures and increase in load due to creep sag of channels above it and hence get disassembled. Presently available severe accident codes use simplistic and optimistic criteria based on a predefined temperature to predict failure of fuel channels and an explicit criterion for disassembly of the channel is not covered. The coolant channel disassembly model developed in this paper is based on modeling the sag and pile up of channels. A uniform temperature along the length of the channel is assumed. The disassembly of the channel is assumed when the total strain at any location exceeds the failure strain for a given temperature. A 3D failure surface which is a plot of time to failure, temperature of the calandria tube and load on the calandria tubes (on account of no of channels piled up) is developed. This failure surface can be used as an input to severe accident codes to predict the progress of the core disassembly. A set of failure surfaces is recommended to be used if metal–water reaction on the outer surface is to be accounted for loss in ductility due to metal water reaction. The temperature transient of the calandria tube for a severe accident obtained from system thermal hydraulic codes can be mapped onto the failure surface. The time at which the mapped transient crosses the failure surface gives the time at which the calandria tube is disassembled. This disassembly model is an engineered model which is much more realistic as compared to the current temperature based conservative model for predicting severe accident progression.

Cost-Effectiveness of Using Pharmacogenetic Information in Warfarin Dosing for Patients With Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation

Variants in genes involved in warfarin metabolism and sensitivity affect individual warfarin requirements and the risk for bleeding. Testing for these variant alleles might allow more personalized dosing of warfarin during the induction phase. In 2007, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration changed the labeling for warfarin (Coumadin, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Princeton, New Jersey), suggesting that clinicians consider genetic testing before initiating therapy. To examine the cost-effectiveness of genotype-guided dosing versus standard induction of warfarin therapy for patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation. Markov state transition decision model. MEDLINE searches and bibliographies from relevant articles of literature published in English. Outpatients or inpatients requiring initiation of warfarin therapy. The base case was a man age 69 years with newly diagnosed nonvalvular atrial fibrillation and no contraindications to warfarin therapy. Lifetime. Societal. Genotype-guided dosing consisting of genotyping for CYP2C9*2, CYP2C9*3, and/or VKORC1 versus standard warfarin induction. Effectiveness was measured in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and costs were in 2007 U.S. dollars. In the base case, genotype-guided dosing resulted in better outcomes, but at a relatively high cost. Overall, the marginal cost-effectiveness of testing exceeded $170 000 per QALY. On the basis of current data and cost of testing (about $400), there is only a 10% chance that genotype-guided dosing is likely to be cost-effective (that is, <$50 000 per QALY). Sensitivity analyses revealed that for genetic testing to cost less than $50 000 per QALY, it would have to be restricted to patients at high risk for hemorrhage or meet the following optimistic criteria: prevent greater than 32% of major bleeding events, be available within 24 hours, and cost less than $200. Few published studies describe the effect of genotype-guided dosing on major bleeding events, and although these studies show a trend toward decreased bleeding, the results are not statistically significant. Warfarin-related genotyping is unlikely to be cost-effective for typical patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation, but may be cost-effective in patients at high risk for hemorrhage who are starting warfarin therapy.

An optimistic decision-making in fuzzy environment

Bellman and Zadeh have originated three systems of multistage decision processes in a fuzzy environment: deterministic, stochastic and fuzzy systems. In this article, we consider an optimization problem with an optimistic criterion on a fuzzy system. By making use of minimization–maximization expectation in a fuzzy environment, we derive a recursive equation for the fuzzy decision process through invariant imbedding approach. By illustrating a three-state, two-decision and two-stage model, we give an optimal solution through dynamic programming. The optimal solution is also verified by the method of multistage fuzzy decision tree-table.

Value of various therapeutic procedures in penile induration

Etiology, pathogenesis and optimal therapy of Peyronie's disease are, 240 years after its first description, still unclear. Diagnosis includes palpation, measurement and exact drawing of the mostly dorsally and laterally located penile induration, photography of erectile deviation, cavernosography and ultrasound as follow-up controls. Pathogenesis of fibrotic stimulation is related to direct local causes such as vascular lesions, microtrauma and hemorrhage and to indirect induction of plasma exudation via autoimmune mechanisms by toxins, infections and vasoactive substances. Symptomatology in 116 of our own patients included the obligatory penile scar, erectile deviation in 75%, pain during erection in 33% and difficult or impossible intercourse in 40%. Radiotherapy in 113 patients led to healing or marked improvement in 44% of cases. In 41% the disease came to a standstill and in 15% of cases symptoms became worse. An analysis of the world literature shows surprisingly a 75% improvement by vitamin E therapy and almost a 60% amelioration by p-aminobenzoic acid and corticoid injections. Favorable results of radiotherapy vary in the literature between 50 and 70%. Reports on these successful treatments include unclear and optimistic criteria in small series and the possible spontaneous standstill or regression of the disease. Indications of operation are erectile pain, impossible invagination and a high degree of penile deviation. Surgical techniques are: (1) Excision of smaller fibrotic segments followed by longitudinal suture of the corpora cavernosa; (2) symmetric and cylindrical resection of both cavernous bodies followed by a watertight reanastomosis after mobilization of the corpus spongiosum; (3) after excision of larger plaques the defect may be covered by autologous material (danger: scar formation, aneurysmatic protrusion, impotence), and (4) hydraulic or semirigid penile prostheses are an ultima ratio. Since there was a 85% improvement or standstill of the disease and little side reactions in 113 of our patients following radiotherapy we recommend it particularly in the early inflammatory phase. An operation might be indicated for patients who do not benefit from this treatment and who show above-mentioned symptoms.