Analyst Optimism Research Articles

Political incentives and analyst bias: Evidence from China

AbstractThis study extends extant research on the determinants of financial analyst bias by examining the role that political incentives play. Using a series of scheduled provincial political events in China, we document that analysts are significantly more likely to issue favorable recommendations or revise their recommendations upward during political event periods, and the effect of political events on optimism is larger for analysts employed by brokerage firms affiliated with politicians. Cross‐sectional evidence suggests that the impact of political events on analyst optimism is concentrated in those provinces where capital market development is a more important performance indicator for politicians or where the incumbent politicians face a pending promotion. Stock return analyses reveal that favorable recommendations issued during political event periods are significantly less profitable in the long run and are less credible according to investor perceptions. Reinforcing our main evidence, we also find that financial analysts are more likely to issue optimistic earnings forecasts during political event periods. Collectively, our results imply that political incentives distort analyst opinions and political‐economic factors affect the corporate information environment in China.

The level of optimism of individual investors and stock market analysts

The level of optimism of individual investors and stock market analysts

Analysts’ forecast optimism and cash holding: Evidence from China

Analysts play an important role as information intermediaries. In this paper, we empirically analyze the impact of analysts' forecast optimism on firms’ cash holdings. Based on China's A-share listed companies from 2011–2021 as the research sample, we find that analyst forecast optimism significantly decreases the company's cash holdings. Meanwhile, based on a cash-cash flow sensitivity model, we show that analyst forecast optimism reduces the company's financing constraint and further makes the company's cash holdings decrease. Moreover, the larger (or older) the firm, the smaller the negative effect of analyst optimism on cash holdings.

Analyst optimism, uncertainty and regulation: evidence from the Indian market

PurposeThe study examines the effect of increased Economic Policy uncertainty on analyst optimism in the Indian market. The study also explores whether the SEBI Research Analyst Regulation, 2014, has effectively contained the optimistic nature of analysts.Design/methodology/approachThe study is based on firms in the Indian market. The sample period is 2003–2020. It runs a linear panel regression to measure the impact of Economic Policy uncertainty on the optimism level of analysts' forecasts and recommendations, controlling for firm fixed effects. Further, the impact of the SEBI Research Analyst Regulation, 2014, has been assessed with the help of the difference-in-difference approach.FindingsThe Economic Policy uncertainty is significantly and positively related to the analyst optimism, reflected in the forecast bias and recommendation in the Indian context. The experience of analysts and the age of the firm positively drive optimism. However, introducing the Research Analyst Regulation by SEBI led to a decline in analyst optimism. The regulation decoupled the analysts' compensation from brokerage service transactions. Thus, the results suggest that the regulation has effectively curbed the incentive to produce optimistic output.Originality/valueThis is the first study in the Indian market to assess the impact of uncertainty on analyst output. It also investigates the effectiveness of the first analyst-specific regulation in India, i.e. The Research Analyst Regulation, 2014.

Institutional investor information network, analyst forecasting and stock price crash risk

In this paper, we construct the information network of fund investors based on the theory of social relationship networks and examine its impact of fund information sharing with analysts on stock price crash risk. Our results show that private information sharing among institutional investors reduces crash risk. Further results show that fund information sharing can alleviate analyst optimism bias and improve analyst forecast accuracy, which further reduces stock price crash risk. Moreover, these identified effects are more pronounced in a bull market than a bear market. Our study contributes to the research on private information transmission in fund information networks, and provides a new perspective for recognizing the relationships among institutional investor behavior, analyst forecasting, and stock price crash risk.

Can analyst coverage enhance corporate innovation legitimacy? ——Heterogeneity analysis based on different situational mechanisms

Corporate innovation legitimacy is the key guarantee for listed companies to obtain returns from innovation activities. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of analyst coverage on corporate innovation legitimacy based on effective supervision hypothesis and market pressure hypothesis. Moreover, it examines the moderating effect of analyst coverage characteristics, individual corporate behavior, external governance mechanism on the relationship between analyst coverage and corporate innovation legitimacy. The hypotheses are tested using a data set of Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed companies from China Research Data Service Platform (CNRDS) database, Hexun.com and CSMAR database. To overcome sample selection bias and reverse causality, this paper conduct robustness test using propensity score matching, lag variable, substitution variable and sample reduction to ensure the reliability of the research conclusions. Findings show that analyst coverage can effectively improve the innovation legitimacy of listed companies. In addition, based on the heterogeneity of the above relationship in different contexts, further research finds that the depth of analyst tracking, and the assessment of analyst optimism strengthen the positive impact of analyst coverage on innovation legitimacy. The implementation of green social responsibility brings a good reputation for the company, thereby helping analysts to focus on improving the legitimacy of innovation; In the market environment with relatively perfect external governance mechanism, the stronger the effect of analyst coverage on corporate innovation legitimacy. Prior studies mostly considered the R&D investment and other factors to overlook how other dimensions influence companies from the perspective of quantity. The research conclusion confirms the significance of analyst coverage as an external corporate governance mechanism, further enriches the theoretical research framework of innovation legitimacy, and has certain reference value for the improvement of innovation quality of listed companies.

Transition from brown to green: Analyst optimism, investor discount, and Paris Agreement

This paper studies financial analysts' evaluation of brown (fossil fuel) versus green (renewable) energy stocks. We find that, compared to green energy stocks, analysts tend to issue more Buy and fewer Sell recommendations for brown energy stocks. Such optimism for brown energy stocks is reduced after the commencement of groundwork for the Paris Agreement. This is especially so for coal stocks than for oil and gas stocks. We also find that, compared to recommendations on green energy stocks, those on brown energy stocks receive a lower reaction from investors, suggesting an investor discount on the informativeness of analyst recommendations on brown energy stocks. Further analysis indicates that in recent years such informational discount has diminished and investors' reliance on analysts' opinions about brown and green energy stocks has converged. Our paper discusses possible reasons for the observed differences and changes in evaluating brown vis-à-vis green energy stocks.

The impact of digital finance on green innovation: resource effect and information effect.

To realize "the future we want" proposed by the UN Development Agenda, it is highly necessary for China, which is the largest emitter of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, to find ways to boost the green innovation of domestic firms. Digital finance, as an emerging product of the contemporary digital economy, provides a new research perspective for green innovation. Based on 2011-2019 panel data on A-shared listed companies in China, this article establishes a regression model and provides empirical evidence that digital finance can promote green innovation by exerting resource and information effects. Our results reveal that (1) digital finance can stimulate enterprises' green innovation by increasing the coverage of digital finance and the depth of use. (2) Digital finance can significantly improve the quantity and quality of green innovation by alleviating enterprises' financial constraints and giving full play to the internal and external information effect. (3) The discussion shows that the effect of digital finance is heterogeneous and can more significantly and effectively stimulate the green innovations of enterprises with lower analyst optimism bias and higher synchronicity.

CDS trading and analyst optimism

This paper investigates whether and how the initiation of Credit Default Swaps (CDS) trading affects analyst forecast optimism. First, we document that the initiation of CDS trading curbs analyst forecasts optimism. Second, we find that the dampening effect of CDS on analyst optimism is stronger for firms with negative news and for firms with poorer financial performance or higher leverage, supporting a “correction effect” of CDS on non-strategic optimism. Moreover, we find that CDS also has a “disciplining effect” on strategic optimism that arises from incentives to cultivate relation with management or to please institutional investors. Overall, our evidence shows that the CDS market not only provides important information for analysts, but also alters analysts’ reporting incentives and enhances their objectivity. Additional analysis shows that this effect has disappeared after the Dodd-Frank Act.

Does Analyst Optimism Fuel Stock Price Momentum?

Researchers have struggled to find rational risk factors that explain momentum profits derived from buying recent winners and shorting recent losers. Behavioral explanations have been offered that focus on the tendencies of investors to underreact to news and recommendations. Our study provides an alternative explanation centered on the behavior of sell-side analysts. We find a change in consensus recommendation from a hold to a buy is accompanied by an increase in momentum profits of 3.40% annually. Momentum profits fall, yet remain material, after the passage of Reg FD and the enactment of the Global Analyst Research Settlement. Our results support a behavioral explanation of investor cognitive biases fueled by analyst regency and optimism biases.

Share pledging and optimism in analyst earnings forecasts: Evidence from China

This study examines the relation between share pledging by controlling shareholders and optimism in analyst earnings forecasts. Using a sample of listed Chinese firms from 2007 to 2018, we find that analysts make more optimistic forecasts for firms whose controlling shareholders have pledged their shares for bank loans and whose share pledge ratio is high. This relation is stronger for firms with poor prior stock performance, for firms located in regions with a high level of marketization, and for analysts who have close connections with firms, but is weaker for reputable analysts and those from larger broker firms. In addition, analyst optimism becomes weaker when the share-pledging loan approaches the end of the term and when the analyst forecast date is closer to the earnings announcement, and becomes more pronounced when analysts make forecasts over a longer horizon. The results suggest that in cases of share pledging, the threat of losing controlling rights creates significant incentives for controlling shareholders to collude with analysts.

Investor Attention, Analyst Optimism, and Stock Price Crash Risk

This paper used the A-shares listed companies in China as samples, constructed a comprehensive indicator of investor attention, and conducted an empirical analysis on the correlations among investor attention, analyst optimism, and stock price crash risk. The results indicated that investor attention aggravates the stock price crash risk and has a positive effect on analyst optimism. Meanwhile, the analyst optimism plays a mediating role in the positive correlation between investor attention and stock price crash risk. In addition to that, institutional investor attention also has direct and indirect effects on the crash risk.

Social learning and analyst behavior

This study examines whether sell-side equity analysts engage in “social learning” in which their earnings forecasts for certain firms are influenced by the forecasts and outcomes of “peer” analysts associated with other firms in their respective portfolios. We find that analyst optimism is negatively correlated with recent forecast errors, by peers, on other firms in the analyst's portfolio. An analyst is also more likely to issue “bold” forecasts when peers recently issued similar forecasts for other portfolio firms. Analysts learn more from peers with similar personal characteristics. Overall, social learning benefits analysts and improves their forecast accuracy.

Industry cash flow volatility and stock price crash risk

This study examines the effect of industry cash flow volatility on the risks of stock price crash by investigating Chinese A‐share listed companies from 2005 to 2015. Findings reveal that increases in the degree of volatility in industry cash flow significantly increase the risk of a stock price crash, and the conclusion remains valid after the robustness test. Further empirical research reveals that a higher level of product market competition and a higher level of policy uncertainty increase the positive effect of industry cash flow volatility on stock price crash risks, which confirms the moderating effect of product market competition and policy uncertainty. The effect of reducing the degree of accounting conservatism and increasing the optimism of analysts' earnings forecasts is analyzed and revealed as interim steps in the mechanism of the effect of industry cash flow volatility on the company's stock price crash risk. Overall, this evidence highlights the severe consequence of industry cash flow volatility on crash risks, which should encourage researchers, investors, and regulators to address the management of industry cash flow volatility.

Analyst Optimism in the Automotive Industry: A Post-Bailout Boost and Methodological Insights

This paper empirically investigates the impact of the government bailout on analysts’ forecast optimism regardingfirms in the automotive industry. We compare the results from M- and MM-robust methodologies to the results from OLS regression in an event study context and find that inferences change. When M- and MM-robust estimation methods are used to estimate the same model, the results for key control variables fall directly in line with those of similar previous studies. Furthermore, an analysis of residuals indicates that the application of M- and MM estimation methods pulls the main prediction equation towards the main sample data, suggesting a more rigorous fit. Based on robust methods, we observe changes in analyst optimism during the announcement period of the bailout, as evidenced by the significantly positive variable of interest. We support our empirical results with simulations and confirm significant improvements in estimation accuracy when robust regression methods are applied to the samples contaminated by outliers.

Analyst Optimism and Buy-Side Institutions: Evidence from Analyst Transition from Sell-Side to Buy-Side

Sell-side analysts commonly transition to buy-side money managers. I examine whether these career transitions compromise sell-side research, relying on granular career information of 6,310 analysts. I find that these analysts issue recommendations that favor their future buy-side employers during the year immediately before the transition. This favoritism is more pronounced among stocks where a single analyst is more impactful and is present only among transitions likely to be strategically planned. Additional analyses using target price forecasts reveal that these optimistic forecasts are less accurate. The findings suggest that these career transitions are a new source of conflicts of interest.

Does an anti-corruption campaign increase analyst earnings forecast optimism?

We examine the impact of an anti-corruption campaign on analyst earnings forecast optimism. Using hand-collected site visits data by the Central Inspection Team (CIT) in China that began in 2013, we document higher analyst optimism during CIT visit periods than during non-CIT visit periods. The results are robust to matched samples, placebo tests, alternative fixed effect and clustering specifications, endogeneity of CIT site visits concern, and alternative samples. Additional analysis suggests that local government pressure and firm bad-news-hiding explain the findings but it is not consistent with the improved firm fundamentals interpretation. Moreover, we find that the effect of CIT visits on analyst optimism is more pronounced for star, non-affiliated, and experienced analysts, supporting the notion that, because of their greater influence, local governments focus on pressuring these analysts. More important, the impact of CIT visits on analyst optimism is more salient if a CIT leader had previous work experience or longer work experience in the inspected province. Interestingly, we document a reversion in analyst earnings forecast optimism 60 days after CIT site visits, especially among the non-state-owned firms, suggesting that, after the CIT investigation, analyst optimism is no longer needed.

The role of analysts in negative information production and disclosure: Evidence from short selling deregulation in an emerging market

Leveraging from the recent short sales deregulation in China, we examine whether analyst optimism bias increases or decreases in the presence of short sales. We use a novel approach of conducting a textual analysis of research reports to quantify analysts’ negative tone on their covered stocks to proxy for their negative information production and disclosure both pre- and post-short sales deregulation. Using a difference-in-differences approach, our findings suggest that, after short sales deregulation, analysts engage in more negative information production and disclosure as revealed by a more negative tone in their analyst reports. The findings are robust to a battery of checks. Additional analysis suggests that when a covered firm obtains future financing or has high institutional ownership, the extent of negative analyst tone in research reports weakens, indicating that analyst conflicts of interest continue to affect analyst research optimism. Finally, we document that negative information production and disclosure by analysts mediates the impact of short sales deregulation on stock price idiosyncratic volatility and cumulative abnormal return, which suggests the important role of analysts in capital market efficiency.

Do Lottery Characteristics Matter for Analysts’ Forecast Behavior?

This study examines the effect of lottery characteristics on analysts’ earnings forecasts. We find that analysts are more optimistic for lottery firms. The optimism of earnings forecast decreases with analysts’ general and firm-specific experience. Information uncertainty would enhance the effect of lottery characteristics on analysts’ earnings forecast bias. Market states and investor sentiment positively affect the effect of lottery characteristics on analyst optimism. Moreover, the level of optimism on lottery stocks increases during economic expansion. Our findings suggest that behavioral biases, rather than rational incentives, explain the optimism of analysts’ earnings forecasts for lottery stocks.

Does short selling reduce analysts’ optimism bias in earnings forecasts?

We examine the relationship between short selling and analyst optimism bias of earnings forecasts of stocks in China. We propose two possible hypotheses: short selling enhances analysts’ information set to lower optimism bias and analysts drum up optimistic earnings forecasts to counter short selling. Our results suggest that short selling and earnings optimism bias are negatively correlated. The findings are robust to a two-stage least square method, a difference in-differences fixed effect model, an alternative measure of optimism bias, incorporated different time windows to calculate short selling, considered bull and bear market conditions, accounting for media coverage, and using abnormal short selling. By leveraging rich data, we conduct additional analyses using stocks with different forecasting horizons and earnings forecasts that were made after the accounting year but prior to the earnings announcement to further support expanding the information set argument. Lastly, we document that short selling information improves the accuracy of earnings forecasts.