Optimal Surveillance Interval Research Articles

Optimal surveillance interval for patients with branch duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas (IPMN)

Optimal surveillance interval for patients with branch duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas (IPMN)

Optimal Surveillance of Metachronous Gastric Lesion after Endoscopic Resection of Early Gastric Cancer.

Endoscopic resection (ER)-a minimal invasive procedure, compared to surgical gastrectomy, with the advantage of preserving the entire stomach and maintaining the patient's quality of life-is a widely used curative treatment for early gastric cancers (EGCs). Despite its advantages, such as the preservation of the whole stomach, a large area of the gastric mucosa with histologic changes such as atrophy and intestinal metaplasia remains after ER, and so does the risk of metachronous gastric cancers (MGCs). Therefore, regular surveillance endoscopy after curative ER of EGCs is important so that MGCs are detected early and so minimally invasive ER remains a treatment option. To date, the optimal interval for surveillance endoscopy after curative ER of EGCs has not been established. Therefore, this review summarizes the results of the published studies on this topic with the aim of establishing the optimal surveillance interval for early identification of MGCs. Based on my review, the median timing of MGC occurrence is within 3 years, and reports suggest biannual endoscopy during the first 3 years; however, the evidence suggests that individual patient characteristics may influence the risk of MGCs. Therefore, stratified endoscopic strategies for surveillance based on patient characteristics, such as age, family history of gastric cancer, synchronous gastric lesions, and corpus intestinal metaplasia, should be applied.

Quantifying the natural growth rate of hepatocellular carcinoma: A real-world retrospective study in southwestern China.

In recent years, approximately half of the newly diagnosed cases and mortalities attributed to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) have been reported in China. Despite the high incidence of HCC, there remains a paucity of data regarding the natural growth pattern and the determination of optimal surveillance intervals specific to the Chinese population. To quantify the natural tumor growth pattern of HCC in regional China. A retrospective analysis was performed on patients from a single institution in Southwest China who had undergone two or more serial dynamic computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging scans between 2014 and 2020, without having received any anti-cancer therapy. Tumor growth was assessed using tumor volume doubling time (TVDT) and tumor growth rate (TGR), with volumes measured manually by experienced radiologists. Simple univariate linear regression and descriptive analysis were applied to explore associations between growth rates and clinical factors. This study identifies the median TVDT for HCC as 163.4 d, interquartile range (IQR) 72.1 to 302.3 d, with a daily TGR of 0.42% (IQR 0.206%-0.97%). HCC growth patterns reveal that about one-third of tumors grow indolently with TVDT exceeding 270 d, another one-third of tumors exhibit rapid growth with TVDT under 90 d, and the remaining tumors show intermediate growth rates, with TVDT ranging between 3 to 9 months. The identified TGRs support biannual surveillance and follow-up for HCC patients in certain regions of China. Given the observed heterogeneity in HCC growth, further investigation is warranted.

Surveillance Endoscopy in Pediatric Esophageal Atresia: Toward an Evidence-Based Algorithm.

Individuals with esophageal atresia (EA) have lifelong increased risk for mucosal and structural pathology of the esophagus. The use of surveillance endoscopy to detect clinically meaningful pathology has been underexplored in pediatric EA. We hypothesized that surveillance endoscopy in pediatric EA has high clinical yield, even in the absence of symptoms. The medical records of all patients with EA who underwent at least 1 surveillance endoscopy between March 2004 and March 2023 at an international EA referral center were retrospectively reviewed. The primary outcomes were endoscopic identification of pathology leading to an escalation in medical, endoscopic, or surgical management. Logistic regression analysis examined predictors of actionable findings. Nelson-Aalen analysis estimated optimal endoscopic surveillance intervals. Five hundred forty-six children with EA underwent 1,473 surveillance endoscopies spanning 3,687 person-years of follow-up time. A total of 770 endoscopies (52.2%) in 394 unique patients (72.2%) had actionable pathology. Esophagitis leading to escalation of therapy was the most frequently encountered finding (484 endoscopies, 32.9%), with most esophagitis attributed to acid reflux. Barrett's esophagus (intestinal metaplasia) was identified in 7 unique patients (1.3%) at a median age of 11.3 years. No dysplastic lesions were identified. Actionable findings leading to surgical intervention were found in 55 children (30 refractory reflux and 25 tracheoesophageal fistulas). Significant predictors of actionable pathology included increasing age, long gap atresia, and hiatal hernia. Symptoms were not predictive of actionable findings, except dysphagia, which was associated with stricture. Nelson-Aalen analysis predicted occurrence of an actionable finding every 5 years. Surveillance endoscopy uncovers high rates of actionable pathology even in asymptomatic children with EA. Based on the findings of the current study, a pediatric EA surveillance endoscopy algorithm is proposed.

Risk of Further Progression or Death Among Durable Progression-Free Survivors With Melanoma or Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer in PD-1 Blockade Trials: Implications for Imaging Surveillance.

Durable progression-free survivors (dPFSors) over 2 years have been reported among patients with melanoma or non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) who received PD-(L)1 therapy. However, risk of progression still exists and the optimal imaging surveillance interval is unknown. Individual patient data for progression-free survival (PFS) were extracted from PD-1 blockade clinical trials with a follow-up of at least 5 years. Patients with a PFS of at least 2 years were considered as dPFSors. Conditional risks of progression/death (P/D) every 3, 4, 6, and 12 months in each subsequent year were calculated. We prespecified three different levels of risk between scans (10%, 15%, or 20%) to allow clinicians and patients to decide on the scanning interval on the basis of considerations of imaging frequency and risk tolerance. An interval is considered acceptable if the upper bound of the 95% CI of the risk at each scan is lower than a prespecified level. Of 1,495 and 3,752 patients with melanoma and NSCLC, 474 (31.7%) and 586 (15.6%) were dPFSors, respectively. Among them, the PFS probability for an additional 3 years was 76.4% and 48.1%, respectively. Not more than 8% of patients had P/D in any quarter in the 3 years. With a risk threshold of 10%, melanoma dPFSors can be scanned every 6 months during the third year and then every 12 months in years 4 and 5. The interval for NSCLC would be every 3 months in the third year and every 4 months in years 4 and 5. The higher risk tolerance of 15% and 20% would allow for less frequent scans. On the basis of their own risk tolerance level, our findings allow clinicians and dPFSors make data-driven decisions regarding the imaging surveillance schedule beyond every 3 months.

Development and validation of a risk prediction model for post-polypectomy colorectal cancer in the USA: a prospective cohort study

Effective risk stratification tools for post-polypectomy colorectal cancer (PPCRC) are lacking. We aimed to develop an effective risk stratification tool for the prediction of PPCRC in three large population-based cohorts and to validate the tool in a clinical cohort. Leveraging the integrated endoscopic, histopathologic and epidemiologic data in three U.S population-based cohorts of health professional (the Nurses' Health Study (NHS) I, II and Health Professionals Follow-up Study (HPFS)), we developed a risk score to predict incident PPCRC among 26,741 patients with a polypectomy between 1986 and 2017. We validated the PPCRC score in the Mass General Brigham (MGB) Colonoscopy Cohort (Boston, Massachusetts, U.S) of 76,603 patients with a polypectomy between 2007 and 2018. In all four cohorts, we collected detailed data on patients' demographics, endoscopic history, polyp features, and lifestyle factors at polypectomy. The outcome, incidence of PPCRC, was assessed by biennial follow-up questionnaires in the NHS/HPFS cohorts, and through linkage to the Massachusetts Cancer Registry in the MGB cohort. In all four cohorts, individuals who were diagnosed with CRC or died before baseline or within six months after baseline were excluded. We used Cox regression to calculate the hazard ratio (HR), 95% confidence interval (CI) and assessed the discrimination using C-statistics and reclassification using the Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI). During a median follow-up of 12.8 years (interquartile range (IQR): 9.3, 16.7) and 5.1 years (IQR: 2.7, 7.8) in the NHS/HPFS and MGB cohorts, we documented 220 and 241 PPCRC cases, respectively. We identified a PPCRC risk score based on 11 predictors. In the validation cohort, the PPCRC risk score showed a strong association with PPCRC risk (HR for high vs. low, 3.55, 95% CI, 2.59-4.88) and demonstrated a C-statistic (95% CI) of 0.75 (0.70-0.79), and was discriminatory even within the low- and high-risk polyp groups (C-statistic, 0.73 and 0.71, respectively) defined by the current colonoscopy surveillance recommendations, leading to a NRI of 45% (95% CI, 36-54%) for patients with PPCRC. We developed and validated a risk stratification model for PPCRC that may be useful to guide tailored colonoscopy surveillance. Further work is needed to determine the optimal surveillance interval and test the added value of other predictors of PPCRC beyond those included in the current study, along with implementation studies. USNational Institutes of Health, the American Cancer Society, the South-Eastern Norway Regional Health Authority, the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft.

Optimal surveillance intervals for intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm of the pancreas and a proposal of candidates for surveillance discontinuation after 5-year follow-up using multicerter cohort

Optimal surveillance intervals for intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm of the pancreas and a proposal of candidates for surveillance discontinuation after 5-year follow-up using multicerter cohort

Development of cancer surveillance guidelines in ataxia telangiectasia: A Delphi-based consensus survey of international experts.

Ataxia telangiectasia (A-T) is a multiorgan disorder with increased vulnerability to cancer. Despite this increased cancer risk, there are no widely accepted guidelines for cancer surveillance in people affected by A-T. We aimed to understand the current international practice regarding cancer surveillance in A-T and agreed-upon approaches to develop cancer surveillance in A-T. We used a consensus development method, the e-Delphi technique, comprising three rounds. Round 1 consisted of a Delphi questionnaire and a survey that collected the details of respondents' professional background, experience, and current practice of cancer surveillance in A-T. Rounds 2 and 3 were designed based on previous rounds and modified according to the comments made by the panellists. The pre-specified consensus threshold was ≥75% agreement. Thirty-five expert panellists from 13 countries completed the study. The survey indicated that the current practice of cancer surveillance varies widely between experts and centres'. Consensus was reached that evidence-based guidelines are needed for cancer surveillance in people with A-T, with separate recommendations for adults and children. Statements relating to the tests that should be included, the age for starting and stopping cancer surveillance and the optimal surveillance interval were also agreed upon, although in some areas, the consensus was that further research is needed. The international expert consensus statement confirms the need for evidence-based cancer surveillance guidelines in A-T, highlights key features that the guidelines should include, and identifies areas of uncertainty in the expert community. This elucidates current knowledge gaps and will inform the design of future clinical trials.

Risk of further progression or death among durable progression-free survivors with melanoma in PD-1 blockade trials: Implications for imaging surveillance.

9529 Background: Durable progression-free survivors (dPFSors) over 2 years have been reported among melanoma patients treated with PD-1 blockade. However, non-negligible risk of further progression still exists and the optimal imaging surveillance interval is unknown. Methods: Individual patient data of progression-free survival (PFS) were extracted from PD-1 blockade clinical trials with follow-up of at least 5 years of PFS events. Co-treatment with anti-CTLA4 antibody was allowed. Patients with PFS of at least 2 years were considered as dPFSors. Conditional risk of progression or death with 95% CI was estimated based on a piece-wise exponential survival model, with the assumption that within each year from the beginning of the third year, the risk of progression/death (P/D) was constant. Conditional risks of P/D every 3, 4, 6, and 12 months in each subsequent year were calculated with 95% confidence interval (CI). We pre-specified three maximal risk levels – 10%, 15%, and 20% at each imaging scanning interval. An interval is considered as acceptable if the 95% CI upper bound of the risk at each scan is lower than a pre-specified risk level. Results: Of 1495 melanoma patients from 3 clinical trials, 474 (31.7%) were dPFSors. Among them, the PFS probability for additional 3 years was 76.4%. During the 3 years, no more than 5.0% of patients had P/D in any quarters. The yearly risk of P/D was 15.5% (95% CI 13.7% - 17.3%), 8.8% (6.8% - 10.8%), and 6.3% (3.8% - 8.8%) during the 3rd, 4th, and 5th year, respectively. Under risk at 10%, 15%, and 20%, melanoma dPFSors can be scanned every 6, 6, and 12 months during the 3rd year, every 6, 12, and 12 months during the 4th, and every 12, 12, and 12 months during the 5th, respectively. Conclusions: Based on their own risk tolerance level, our findings allow clinicians and dPFSors make data-driven decisions regarding imaging surveillance schedule beyond every 3 months. [Table: see text]

Endoscopic surveillance of Lynch syndrome at a highly specialized center in Sweden: An observational study of interval colorectal cancer and individual risk factors.

Lynch syndrome (LS) is the most common hereditary cause of colorectal cancer (CRC). In order to detect CRCs amongst LS patients, regular colonoscopies are recommended. However, an international agreement on an optimal surveillance interval has not yet been reached. In addition, few studies have investigated factors that could potentially increase the CRC risk amongst LS patients. The primary aim was to describe the frequency of CRCs detected during endoscopic surveillance and to estimate the interval from a clean colonoscopy to CRC detection amongst LS patients. The secondary aim was to investigate individual risk factors, including sex, LS genotype, smoking, aspirin use and body mass index (BMI), on CRC risk amongst patients that develop CRC before and during surveillance. Clinical data and colonoscopy findings from 366 LS patients' 1437 surveillance colonoscopies were collected from medical records and patient protocols. Logistic regression and Fisher's exact test were used to investigate associations between individual risk factors and CRC development. Mann-Whitney U test was used to compare the distribution of TNM stages of CRC detected before surveillance and after index. CRC was detected in 80 patients before surveillance and in 28 patients during surveillance (10 at index and 18 after index). During the surveillance programme, CRC was detected within 24 months in 65% of the patients, and after 24 months within 35% of the patients. CRC was more common amongst men, previous and current smokers, and the odds of developing CRC also increased with an increasing BMI. CRCs were more often detected amongst MLH1 and MSH2 carriers during surveillance, compared to the other genotypes. We found that 35% of the CRC cases detected during surveillance were found after 24 months. MLH1 and MSH2 carriers were at higher risk of developing CRC during surveillance. Additionally, men, current or previous smokers, and patients with a higher BMI were at higher risk of developing CRC. Currently, LS patients are recommended a "one-size-fits-all" surveillance program. The results support the development of a risk-score whereby individual risk factors should be taken into consideration when deciding on an optimal surveillance interval.

Optimized surveillance intervals for low-risk side-branch intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms

Background: Side-branch intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (SB-IPMNs) are pre-malignant pancreatic lesions with cumulative malignant transformation (high grade dysplasia [HGD] or pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma [PDAC]) rates of 5-20%. Surveillance intervals of SB-IPMNs vary depending on cyst and patient-specific features. To better define optimal surveillance intervals, we assessed the incidence of malignant transformation and the development of worrisome features (WFs) or high-risk stigmata (HRS) after initial presentation in SB-IPMNs≤2cm.

The Usability of Intensive Imaging Surveillance After Esophagectomy in Patients with Esophageal Cancer.

Although imaging surveillance after esophagectomy is required to achieve long-term survival for patients with esophageal cancer, the optimal surveillance timing and interval remain unclear. This study was designed to investigate the differences in oncological outcomes based on the detection method for recurrence and surveillance interval in patients with recurrence detected by routine imaging examination after esophagectomy. A total of 527 patients who underwent thoracic esophagectomy for esophageal cancer with R0 resection between 2003 and 2021 in our department were enrolled in this study. Postoperative, routine surveillance was conducted at an outpatient clinic every 3 months, thoracoabdominal computed tomography (CT) every 4-6 months, and esophagogastroduodenoscopy every 6 months. The detection method and optimal interval of imaging surveillance also were investigated. Of all patients, 161 patients developed recurrence during surveillance; 110 (68.3 %) by routine surveillance and 37 (23.0%) not detected by routine surveillance. Among patients who were diagnosed with recurrence following routine surveillance, patients with pStage IV disease on imaging surveillance by thoracoabdominal CT at an interval of ≤ 5 months had a better survival rate than those with an interval of 6 months (P = 0.004), whereas no significant difference among different intervals was observed in patients with pStage I-III disease. Recurrence may have been detectable by our routine surveillance in approximately 70% of patients who developed recurrence. These findings demonstrate the necessity of different imaging surveillance intervals for different pStages of esophageal cancer.

Comparative cost-effectiveness of three post-radiofrequency ablation surveillance intervals for Barrett's esophagus.

Background and study aims Radiofrequency ablation (RFA) for dysplastic Barrett’s esophagus (BE) has resulted in a paradigm shift in the management of BE. Despite widespread adoption of RFA, the optimal surveillance interval of the ablated zone is unclear. Methods A patient-level discrete time cycle Markov model was developed to model clinical surveillance strategies post-RFA for BE. Three surveillance strategies were examined: the American College of Gastroenterology (ACG) strategy based on ACG guidelines for post-RFA surveillance, the Cotton strategy based on data from the USA and UK RFA registries, and the UK strategy in line with surveillance strategies in UK centers. Monte-Carlo deterministic and probabilistic analyses were performed over 10,000 iterations (i. e., representing 10,000 patient journeys) and sensitivity analyses were carried out on the variables used in the model. Results On base-case analysis, the ACG strategy was the most cost-effective strategy, at a mean cost of £ 11,733 ($ 16,396) (standard deviation (SD) 1520.15) and a mean effectiveness of 12.86 (SD 0.07) QALYs. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the ACG model was the most cost-effective strategy with a net monetary benefit (NMB) of £ 5,136 ($ 7177) (SD 241) compared to the UK strategy and a NMB of £ 7017 ($ 9,806) (SD 379) compared to the Cotton strategy. At a willingness to pay (WTP) threshold of £ 20,000 ($ 27,949), the ACG model was superior to the other strategies as the most cost-effective strategy. Conclusions A post-RFA surveillance strategy based on the ACG guidelines seems to be the most cost-effective surveillance option.

AGA Institute Quality Measure Development for the Management of Gastric Intestinal Metaplasia With Helicobacter pylori

AGA Institute Quality Measure Development for the Management of Gastric Intestinal Metaplasia With Helicobacter pylori

Impact of 5-Year Endoscopic Surveillance Intervals with Biopsy following Endoscopic Papillectomy for Ampullary Adenoma.

Background: Endoscopic snare papillectomy (ESP) has been established as a safe and effective treatment for ampullary adenomas. However, little is known about the optimal post-procedure follow-up period and the role of routine endoscopic surveillance biopsy following ESP. We aimed to evaluate patient adherence to a 5-year endoscopic surveillance and routine biopsy protocol after ESP of ampullary adenoma. Methods: We reviewed our prospectively collected database (n = 98), all members of which underwent ESP for ampullary lesions from January 2011 to December 2016, for the evaluation of long-term outcomes. The primary outcome was the rate of patient adherence to 5-year endoscopic surveillance following ESP. The secondary outcomes were the diagnostic yield of routine endoscopic biopsy, recurrence rate, and adverse events after endoscopic surveillance in the 5-year follow-up (3-month, 6-month, and every 1 year). Results: A total of 19 patients (19.4%) experienced recurrence during follow-up, all of these patients experienced recurrence within 3 years of the procedure (median 217 days, range 69–1083). The adherence rate for patients with sporadic ampullary adenoma were 100%, 93.5%, and 33.6% at 1, 3, and 5 years after ESP, respectively. The diagnostic yield of routine endoscopic biopsy without macroscopic abnormality was 0.54%. Pancreatitis occurred in four patients (4%, 3 mild, 1 moderate) after surveillance endoscopic biopsy without macroscopic abnormality. Conclusions: Given the low 5-year adherence rate and diagnostic yield of routine endoscopic biopsy with risk of pancreatitis, optimal surveillance intervals according to risk stratification (low grade vs. high grade adenoma/intramucosal adenocarcinoma) may be required to improve patient adherence, and routine biopsy without macroscopic abnormality may not be recommended.

Risk factor-based optimal endoscopic surveillance intervals after endoscopic submucosal dissection for gastric adenoma

To date, there exists no established endoscopic surveillance interval strategy after endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) for gastric adenoma. In this study, we suggest a risk factor-based statistical model for optimal surveillance intervals for gastric adenoma after ESD with curative resection. A cox proportional hazard model was applied to identify risk factors for recurrence after ESD. Patients (n = 698) were categorized into groups based on the identified risk factors. The cumulative density of recurrence over time was computed using a cubic splined baseline hazard function, and the customized surveillance interval was modeled for each risk group. The overall cumulative incidence of recurrence was 7.3% (n = 51). Risk factors associated with recurrence were male (hazard ratio [HR], 2.60, P = 0.030), protruded scar (HR, 3.18, P < 0.001), and age ≥ 59 years (HR, 1.05, P < 0.001). The surveillance interval for each group was developed by using the recurrence limit for the generated risk groups. According to the developed schedule, high-risk patients would have a maximum of seven surveillance visits for 5 years, whereas low-risk patients would have biennial surveillance for cancer screening. We proposed a simple and promising strategy for determining a better endoscopic surveillance interval by parameterizing diverse and group-specific recurrence risk factors into a well-known survival model.

Optimal surveillance interval after piecemeal endoscopic mucosal resection for large colorectal neoplasia: a multicenter randomized controlled trial.

Colorectal neoplastic lesions (≥ 20mm) are commonly treated via piecemeal endoscopic mucosal resection (p-EMR) but have a high rate of local recurrence. We aimed to clarify the optimal surveillance interval after p-EMR for these neoplasias. In this multicenter (15 participating institutions) prospective, randomized trial, 180 patients recruited over a 4-year period and were classified based on tumor location, tumor diameter, histological diagnosis, institution, and number of resected specimens. The patients underwent curative p-EMR followed by scheduled surveillance colonoscopy at 3, 6, 12, and 24months after p-EMR (group A; n = 90) or at 6, 12, and 24months after p-EMR (group B; n = 90). The primary endpoint was cumulative local recurrence at 6months after p-EMR. Secondary endpoints included local recurrence and the cumulative surgical resection rate of recurrent tumors during the 24-month follow-up period. The median tumor diameter was 25mm (IQR 20-30). Six months after p-EMR, 12 and 6 local recurrences were noted in groups A and B, which corresponded to 13 and 8 recurrences, respectively, during the 24-month surveillance period. The primary and secondary endpoints of recurrence were not significantly different between the groups on either intention-to-treat or per-protocol analysis; no surgery case was observed in group B when a strict surveillance protocol of 6-, 12-, and 24-month follow-up post-EMR was followed. For patients who underwent p-EMR for neoplastic lesions, additional postprocedural 3-month surveillance did not show superior results in detecting recurrence compared with a 6-month surveillance interval. UMIN000015740.

Serial Transient Elastography Examinations to Monitor Patients With Type 2 Diabetes: A Prospective Cohort Study

Type 2 diabetes is an important risk factor for nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and advanced fibrosis. Current international guidelines recommend the use of noninvasive tests as initial assessments for NAFLD, but the role of noninvasive tests as monitoring tools has not been established. We aimed to study the role of transient elastography as a monitoring tool in patients with type 2 diabetes. We recruited patients with type 2 diabetes without viral hepatitis or excessive alcohol intake from a complication screening facility in Hong Kong in 2013-2014 and repeated the assessments in 2016-2018. The primary endpoint was an increase of liver stiffness measurement (LSM) to ≥10kPa. The secondary endpoint was the change in the controlled attenuation parameter (CAP). A total of 611 patients with type 2 diabetes and a valid LSM (mean age, 57.7±10.9years; 342 men [56.0%]) were included in this study (568 also had a valid CAP). Overall, there was moderate correlation between the baseline and follow-up LSM (r=0.689, P<0.001). Among 487 patients with a baseline LSM <10kPa, 21 (4.3%) had a follow-up LSM ≥10kPa. Baseline body mass index, alanine aminotransferase (ALT), and ∆ALT were independent factors associated with LSM increase. Among 124 patients with a baseline LSM ≥10kPa, 70 (56.5%) had a follow-up LSM <10kPa. Among 198 patients with a CAP <248dB/m at baseline, 103 (52.0%) had a CAP increased to ≥248dB/m. The prevalence and incidence of NAFLD in patients with type 2 diabetes are high. Although advanced fibrosis is common in this population, few patients progress to advanced fibrosis in 3years. Future studies should define the optimal surveillance interval in patients with diabetes.

Optimising intervals for abdominal aortic aneurysm surveillance: A pilot study analysing patient opinion.

Optimising abdominal aortic aneurysm surveillance intervals will improve current surveillance programmes. To the author's knowledge, no known study has exclusively asked patient opinion with regards to their surveillance interval. The aim of this study was to therefore determine a patient's perspective of their optimal intervals, encouraging shared decision-making and creating a patient-focused service. Fifty patients, currently under abdominal aortic aneurysm surveillance, were interviewed. Patients were asked their opinions before and after seeing a patient decision aid. A patient decision aid presents information of risk in an easy-to-understand format. This specific patient decision aid, designed and created for this study, informed patients of the 'risk of exceeding the 5.5 cm surgical threshold' with regards to various surveillance intervals. The chosen optimal surveillance interval was recorded for each patient, and a median interval was calculated for each abdominal aortic aneurysm group. Groups were categorised based upon maximum aortic diameter (3.0-3.4 cm, 3.5-3.9 cm, 4.0-4.4 cm and 4.5-4.9 cm). After assessing the patient decision aid, the median surveillance interval calculated for each abdominal aortic aneurysm group was 24 months (3.0-3.4 cm), 12 months (3.5-3.9 cm), 12 months (4.0-4.4 cm) and 6 months (4.5-4.9 cm), respectively. The majority of patients (78%, n = 39) agreed that the patient decision aid was a useful tool to help make an informed choice. Overall, patients in abdominal aortic aneurysm groups 3.0-3.4 cm and 4.5-4.9 cm would choose to lengthen abdominal aortic aneurysm surveillance intervals. Lengthening the current surveillance intervals to 24 months (currently 12 months) for abdominal aortic aneurysm group 3.0-3.4 cm and to 6 months (currently 3 months) for abdominal aortic aneurysm group 4.5-4.9 cm would not only increase capacity but also reflect the needs and wishes of those using the National Health Service. The use of a patient decision aid is an effective way of communicating, to the patient, the risk of the proposed changes and thus alleviating potential anxiety.

Linear mixed-effects models for estimation of pulmonary metastasis growth rate: implications for CT surveillance in patients with sarcoma.

Sarcoma patients often undergo surveillance chest CT for detection of pulmonary metastases. No data exist on the optimal surveillance interval for chest CT. The aim of this study was to estimate pulmonary metastasis growth rate in sarcoma patients. This was a retrospective review of 95 patients with pulmonary metastases (43 patients with histologically confirmed metastases and 52 with clinically diagnosed metastases) from sarcoma treated at an academic tertiary-care center between 01 January 2000 and 01 June 2019. Age, sex, primary tumor size, grade, subtype, size and volume of the pulmonary metastasis over successive chest CT scans were recorded. Two metastases per patient were chosen if possible. Multivariate linear mixed-effects models with random effects for each pulmonary metastasis and each patient were used to estimate pulmonary metastasis growth rate, evaluating the impact of patient age, tumor size, tumor grade, chemotherapy and tumor subtype. We estimated the pulmonary metastasis volume doubling time using these analyses. Maximal primary tumor size at diagnosis (LRT statistic = 2.58, df = 2, p = 0.275), tumor grade (LRT statistic = 1.13, df = 2, p = 0.567), tumor type (LRT statistic = 7.59, df = 6, p = 0.269), and patient age at diagnosis (LRT statistic = 0.735, df = 2, p = 0.736) were not statistically significant predictors of pulmonary nodule growth from baseline values. Chemotherapy decreased the rate of pulmonary nodule growth from baseline (LRT statistic = 7.96, df = 2, p = 0.0187). 95% of untreated pulmonary metastases are expected to grow less than 6 mm in 6.4 months. There was significant intrapatient and interpatient variation in pulmonary metastasis growth rate. Pulmonary metastasis volume growth rate was best fit with an exponential model in time. The volume doubling time for pulmonary metastases assuming an exponential model in time was 143 days (95% CI (104, 231) days). Assuming a 2 mm nodule is the smallest reliably detectable nodule by CT, the data suggest that an untreated pulmonary metastasis is expected to grow to 8 mm in 8.4 months (95% CI (4.9, 10.2) months). Tumor size, grade and sarcoma subtype did not significantly alter pulmonary metastasis growth rate. However, chemotherapy slowed the pulmonary metastasis growth rate. CT surveillance intervals for pulmonary metastases can be estimated based on metastasis growth rate. There was significant variation in the pulmonary metastasis growth rate between metastases within patient and between patients. Pulmonary nodule volume growth followed an exponential model, linear in time.