Optimal Extraction Path Research Articles

Renewable resource dynamics: A Web-based classroom experiment

The authors adapted a lab-in-the-field experiment emulating the dynamic extraction of a fishery to create a Web-based classroom experiment. The game includes a multi-player version analogous to an open-access problem and a single-player version analogous to the social planner problem. This game is helpful in introductory microeconomics courses to teach about dominant strategies and the consequences of resource rivalry. In elective courses, the game helps teach bio-economics concepts, including logistic growth functions and optimal extraction paths. Instructions for game deployment and creating the sessions are provided. Conducting the game takes about 20 minutes, and because the game is Web-based, students can access it from their laptops, tablets, or smartphones.

Ecosystem Shifts: Implications for Groundwater Management

Freshwater ecosystems provide a large number of benefits to society. However, extensive human activities threat the viability of these ecosystems, their habitats, and their dynamics and interactions. One of the main risks facing these systems is the overexploitation of groundwater resources that hinders the survival of several freshwater habitats. In this paper, we study optimal groundwater paths when considering freshwater ecosystems. We contribute to existing groundwater literature by including the possibility of regime shifts in freshwater ecosystems into a groundwater management problem. The health of the freshwater habitat, which depends on the groundwater level, presents a switch in its status that occurs when a critical water level (‘tipping point’) is reached. Our results highlight important differences in optimal extraction paths and optimal groundwater levels compared with traditional models. The outcomes suggest that optimal groundwater withdrawals are non-linear and depend on the critical threshold and the ecosystem’s health function. Our results show that the inclusion of regime shifts in water management calls for a reformulation of water policies to incorporate the structure of ecosystems and their interactions with the habitat.

Reverse Causality between Oil Policy and Fiscal Policy? The Venezuelan Experience

This paper uses a model of intergenerational accounting to simulate the intergenerational distribution of oil wealth in Venezuela. Venezuelan oil production does not seem to follow an optimal extraction path. Nevertheless, this is true if we do not consider what the government does with the resources received from the oil sector. We explored the interaction of oil policy and fiscal policy using such intergenerational accounting model. We argue that the way in which tax revenues (both, those coming from oil and those who do not) are used today can affect voters preferences on how they will be used tomorrow. These interactions could explain certain outcomes. In particular, the model could explain why the sector was open for investment in 1991 and then “re-nationalized” in 2001. Results suggest that when fiscal policy could leave an important burden to future generations, voters seem to favor a more tax-oriented oil policy, leaving the oil in the subsoil.

A Model for the Optimal Recovery of Multiple Substances from Waste Water with a Focus on Phosphate

In recent times, the issue of a “Phosphate Peak” has entered the academic debate and it is widely present in social media. Arguments in favour and against are similar to those mentioned in the much earlier debate on the “Oil Peak”. However, whereas the “Oil Peak” is supply driven, the “Phosphate Peak”, if at all, is demand driven. In contrast with oil, most of which is chemically transformed in CO2, vapor and other constituting elements, phosphate is not “consumed” during its primary use as a fertilizer. Hence, whilst phosphate rock, from which phosphate is mined, is a depletable resource, phosphate itself is potentially recyclable and re-usable. Research on the technologies for such a recovery is manifold and, specifically, efforts are spent on waste water as a source of phosphate. This, if successful, could lead to a changing perception of waste water treatment plants as a set of backstop technologies to eliminate an environmental problem into a “secondary liquid mine” from which phosphate, but not only phosphate, could be extracted for re-use. Hence, for that purpose, an economic model of efficient extraction of phosphate and other elements from waste water in a waste water treatment plant could give guidance to operators. This paper presents such a model describing the optimal simultaneous extraction of several elements, including phosphate, from a “secondary liquid mine”. The elements are assumed to be present in given proportions (ratios) in this “mine” and the model shows that these ratios have an impact on the optimal extraction path and on resulting “implicit” shadow pricing rules to be adopted by the waste water treatment plant operator.

Extracting information or resource? The Hotelling rule revisited under asymmetric information

AbstractA concessionaire has private information on the initial stock of resource. A “virtual Hotelling rule” describes how the resource price evolves over time and how extraction costs are compounded with information costs along the optimal extraction path. Fields which are heterogeneous in terms of their initial stocks follow different extraction paths. Resource might be left unexploited in the long run as a way to foster incentives. The optimal contract may sometimes be implemented through royalties and license fees. With a market of concessionaires, asymmetric information leads to a “virtual Herfindahl principle” and to another form of heterogeneity across active concessionaires.

Optimal Extraction Paths with Electric Power Generation

It would seem that Hotelling's rule and its related models of resource extraction and electricity production as largest consumer of scarce resources are closely related. However, although fixed costs and a non-storable product are essential in characterizing electricity markets, they can hardly be found in respective literature. We show optimal extraction paths when coal, gas and a renewable with differing fixed and variable costs as well as carbon intensities are considered. The technology with lowest fixed costs will then – though relying on a scarce resource – always be used in perpetuity. The high fixed-cost fossil technology may be exploited at a definite point of time if it is relatively scarce or also used ad infinitum.

An Estimate of the Shadow Price of Water in the Southern Ogallala Aquifer

In this paper, we attempt to quantify the shadow price of an additional inch of groundwater resource left in situ for the Southern Ogallala Aquifer. Previous authors have shown the degree to which the optimal resource extraction path may diverge from the competitive extraction path based upon varying assumptions. We utilize high-quality data over an unconfined groundwater resource to evaluate the validity of these results. We find that the size of the existing groundwater resource is sufficiently small to result in a divergence between the competitive and socially optimal solutions. We are also able to confirm that the model responds to changes in the parameters in a manner consistent with previous research. Finally, we arrive at a marginal user cost for an additional acre-inch of water which is relatively low, but reasonable given uncertainty about future technological improvements.

Optimal Extraction Path in a Oil and Gas Broun Field Under the Buyback Contractual Framework (Case Study on the Iranian Oil Field in the Persian Gulf)

Optimal Extraction Path in a Oil and Gas Broun Field Under the Buyback Contractual Framework (Case Study on the Iranian Oil Field in the Persian Gulf)

Groundwater Spatial Dynamics and Endogenous Well Location

Groundwater economic models have refined optimal extraction rules while lagging behind in the study of optimal spatial policies. This paper develops a theoretical model to estimate welfare gains from optimal groundwater management when the choice variable set is expanded to include well location decisions as well as optimal groundwater extraction paths. Our theoretical results show that if there is spatial heterogeneity in groundwater, the welfare gains from optimal location of wells are substantial even if extraction rates are unregulated. Furthermore, second-best economically defined spacing regulations may possibly have better efficiency results (and lower implementation costs) than first-best uniform taxes or quotas. An application of the model to a real-world aquifer shows the importance of including well location decisions in spatially differentiated groundwater models and the need for (1) robust estimates of the gains from optimal management and; (2) spatially explicit regulations.

The Optimal Extraction Path of Exhaustible Resources under Environment Control

Assuming in the perfectly competitive market, using the optimal control theory and making the social welfare as the maximization target, the paper studies on environment control which impacts the optimal extraction path of exhaustible resource. The special case result shows that: reserve and the changes of environment capacity function and curve are influenced by original reserve, discounted value, the absolute ratio of green environment flow to resource extraction quantity, and marginal cost.

Optimal adaptation strategies to face shocks on groundwater resources

We consider an exogenous and reversible shock to a groundwater resource, namely a decrease in the recharge rate of the aquifer. We compare optimal extraction paths and the social costs of optimal adaptation in two cases: under certainty, i.e. when the date of occurrence of the shock is known, and under uncertainty, when the date of occurrence of the shock is a random variable. We show that an increase in uncertainty leads to a decrease in precautionary behavior in the short run and to an increase in precautionary behavior in the long run. We apply our model to the particular case of the Western la Mancha aquifer in Spain. We show that, in this context, it is advantageous for the water agency to acquire information on the date of the shock, especially for high-intensity and intermediate-risk events.

The Optimal Extraction Path of Exhaustible Resource with Environment Cost

Assuming in the perfectly competitive market, using the optimal control theory and making the social welfare as the maximization target, the paper studies on environment cost which impacts the optimal extraction path of exhaustible resource. The special case result shows that: the time of optimal exhaustion increases with the addition of marginal environmental cost, the price has negative linear correlation with the marginal environmental cost, and the optimal extraction has positive linear correlation with the marginal environmental cost.

Long-Term Economic Viability of Production From Unconventional Liquids-Rich Reservoirs: The Case of Bakken Field

Summary Long-term economic viability of unconventional reservoirs is evaluated from the profit-maximizing perspective of a producing company. The case of the liquids-rich production from the Bakken field is considered as a representative of unconventional resources. A profit-margin optimization model is constructed for a company to meet the demand it faces from a stock of conventional and unconventional resources given different sets of exogenously determined prices. The model is parameterized using the different production-decline rates of the two sources, physical and economic exhaustibility of the resources, and the ever-increasing marginal cost of adding conventional resources into the company portfolio. The optimal extraction path of oil from the conventional and unconventional reservoirs is assessed, and the long-term economic consequence of keeping the unconventional resource in the ground for different oil-price scenarios is predicted. The model reveals the appropriate composition of a portfolio of conventional and unconventional resources. In the case of a high-price scenario, the optimal efficient extraction path is the pursuit of additional conventional resources before using unconventionals to meet the demand. For the reference-price scenario, the decline of the conventional reserves should be substituted with unconventionals from the beginning. The profitability of the enhanced oil recovery (EOR) applications in unconventional reservoirs and when they should be implemented are also determined. Contrary to common expectation, it is shown that the EOR technology is more justifiable in the case of a lower price forecast.

A characterization of oil price behavior — Evidence from jump models

This paper is concerned with the statistical behavior of oil prices in two ways. It, firstly, applies a combined jump GARCH model in order to characterize the behavior of daily, weekly as well as monthly oil prices. Secondly, it relates its empirical results to implications of Hotelling-type resource extraction models. The empirical analysis shows that oil prices are characterized by GARCH as well as conditional jump behavior and that a considerable portion of the total variance is triggered by sudden extreme price movements. This finding implies that, first, oil price signals are not reliable and, as a consequence, both finding optimal extraction paths and decisions regarding the transmission to alternative technologies are likely to be compromised. Second, this behavior is in stark contrast to the notion of deterministic trends in the price of oil.

Optimal Mechanisms for Heterogeneous Multi-Cell Aquifers

Standard economic models of groundwater management impose restrictive assumptions regarding perfect transmissivity (i.e., the aquifer behaves as a bathtub), no external effects of groundwater stocks, observability of individual extraction rates, and/or homogeneous agents. In this article, we derive regulatory mechanisms for inducing the socially optimal extraction path in Markov perfect equilibrium for aquifers in which these assumptions do not hold. In spite of the complexity of the underlying system, we identify an interesting case in which a simple linear mechanism achieves the social optimum. To illustrate potential problems that can arise by erroneously imposing simplifying assumptions, we conduct a simulation based on data from the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh.

STATUS-SEEKING AND EXHAUSTIBLE RESOURCE UNDER UNCERTAINTY

This paper is to extend Katayama and Long (2010) to examine the effect of uncertainty on the optimal consumption and resource extraction paths when economic agents are status-seeking. We consider an economy endowed with an exhaustible natural resource and an artificially augmentable capital, both of which are accessible by each agent. The utility of an agent is derived not only from his/her own consumption level but from its relative position in consumption scale among the agents. The resource stock is subject to uncertainty and may increase by newly discovered reservoir or may decrease by, say, water immersion. Two types of uncertainty are modeled: continuous change in stock level over time and jumps in discrete interval of time. The introduction of uncertainty may counteract the property under Markov-perfect Nash equilibrium established by Katayama and Long (2010) that a higher degree of status-seeking leads to greater consumption than in the social optimum.

Optimal Mechanisms for Heterogeneous Multi-Cell Aquifers

Standard economic models of groundwater management impose restrictive assumptions regarding perfect transmissivity (i.e., the aquifer behaves as a bathtub), no external effects of groundwater stocks, observability of individual extraction rates, and/or homogenous agents. In this article, we derive regulatory mechanisms for inducing the socially optimal extraction path in Markov perfect equilibrium for aquifers in which these assumptions do not hold. In spite of the complexity of the underlying system, we identify an interesting case in which a simple linear mechanism achieves the social optimum. To illustrate potential problems that can arise by erroneously imposing simplifying assumptions, we conduct a simulation based on data from the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh.

A Characterization of Oil Price Behavior - Evidence from Jump Models

This paper is concerned with the statistical behavior of oil prices in two ways. It, firstly, applies a combined jump GARCH in order to characterize the behavior of daily, weekly as well as monthly oil prices. Secondly, it relates its empirical results to implications of Hotelling-type resource extraction models. The empirical analysis shows that oil prices are characterized by GARCH as well as conditional jump behavior and that a considerable portion of the total variance is triggered by sudden extreme price movements. This finding implies that, first, oil price signals are not reliable and, as a consequence, both finding optimal extraction paths and decisions regarding the transmission to alternative technologies are likely to be compromised. Second, this behavior is in stark contrast to the notion of deterministic trends in the price of oil.

Social Optimality with Resource Depletion: An Investment Project Valuation Model

The core objective of this research is to arrive at the optimal social extraction path on an investment project level reaching dynamic social optimality with resource depletion, in contrast to the traditional benefit-cost criterion of project feasibility. The focal argument is that marginal social benefits, at equilibrium, must strictly exceed marginal social cost, at equilibrium, in order to correct for historical failures and expected cumulative environmental disturbances away from the optimum social extraction path. A dynamic optimization model is proposed based on maximizing the generation of social capital for a given transversal-free project cycle whereby social surplus includes environmental factors related to resource depletion and environmental sustainability. This is based on upper-bound and lower-bound system failure of environmental sustainability constraints, in addition to private financial payoffs from a given supply of capital. The main assumption is that social surplus can be formulated as an aggregate likelihood function for private financial returns augmented to produce additivelyseparable social utility levels pertaining to the micro-sustainability of physical capital resources at an investment project level. An upper sustainability constraint on resource depletion ensures lack of resource over-depletion beyond the socially efficient rate, and a lower sustainability constraint ensures availability of critically needed input resources for an efficient production level. Both constraints are treated in dynamic optimality with the objective of maximizing the social surplus from an investment project. Atl Econ J (2010) 38:371–373 DOI 10.1007/s11293-010-9227-1

Aggressive oil extraction and precautionary saving: Coping with volatility

The effects of stochastic oil demand on optimal oil extraction paths and tax, spending and government debt policies are analyzed when the oil demand schedule is linear and preferences quadratic. Without prudence, optimal oil extraction is governed by the Hotelling rule and optimal budgetary policies by the tax and consumption smoothing principle. Volatile oil demand brings forward oil extraction and induces a bigger government surplus. With prudence, the government depletes oil reserves even more aggressively and engages in additional precautionary saving financed by postponing spending and bringing taxes forward, especially if it has substantial monopoly power on the oil market, gives high priority to the public spending target, is very prudent, and future oil demand has high variance. Uncertain economic prospects induce even higher precautionary saving and, if non-oil revenue shocks and oil revenue shocks are positively correlated, even more aggressive oil extraction. In contrast, prudent governments deliberately underestimate oil reserves which induce less aggressive oil depletion and less government saving, but less so if uncertainty about reserves and oil demand are positively correlated.