Within multi-tiered systems of support (MTSS) practice and research, students' need for academic intervention is often determined by comparison of students' screening scores to cut scores. We examined the degree to which the relationship between students' fall screening data (i.e., Measures of Academic Progress) and their outcome on a spring summative state test related to the quality of the classroom learning environment and how core instructional strategies influenced this relationship. Fall screening data and spring state test outcomes in English/language arts (ELA) and math were analyzed from a sample of 72 teachers and 1554 third-grade students. Multilevel logistic regression revealed that the association between students' ELA or math skills at the beginning of a school year and state test at the end of the year were not identical across classrooms (odds ratios range = 0.81–0.92). A significant interaction was observed between students' fall ELA screening scores and teachers' instructional strategy use in predicting state test outcomes (p = .03). Teacher strategy use was found to be a significant contributor to false positives in screening decisions based on optimal cut scores for ELA (p = .003), but not math.
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