Operational Climate Monitoring Research Articles

NWS Regional and Local Climate Services: Past 20 Years, Present, and Future

Abstract The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) has been providing national, regional, and local climate services for more than 20 years. The NWS climate services building blocks consist of service provision infrastructure, partnership and outreach, discovery of user needs and requirements, and service delivery at national, regional, local, and tribal levels. To improve services, the NWS climate services program accelerated user engagement through customer surveys, workshops, and collaborations. Since 2002, the annual Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop has developed a community of climate information producers and users through sharing of climate science applications, decision support tools, and effective communication practices. Although NWS had been producing operational climate monitoring and prediction products for several decades, the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017 (U.S. Public Law 115-25) specifically mandated that NWS deliver services at subseasonal to seasonal time scales, including periods from two weeks to two years. Looking ahead, both the Department of Commerce (DOC) and NOAA have included climate services in their new 2022–26 strategic plans, including DOC’s goal to address the climate crisis through mitigation, adaptation, and resilience efforts and NOAA’s initiatives to build a Climate Ready Nation (CRN). The NWS Climate Services Program supports these strategic goals and CRN initiatives through integrating climate information into Impact-based Decision Support Services, the most critical element for implementation of the NWS strategy for a Weather-Ready Nation. This includes application of state-of-the-art climate monitoring and prediction products to the most societally relevant impacts while empowering regional and local climate delivery of enhanced services.

Onset and demise dates of the rainy season in the South American monsoon region: A cluster analysis result

AbstractThis work proposes an adaptation of the method developed in previous papers to determine the onset and demise of the rainy season (ONR and DER) dates in the areas of the South American monsoon system (SAMS) based on the pentad antisymmetric outgoing long‐wave radiation (AOLR). In those papers, the sign change of the mean AOLR in the central Amazon Basin (CAM) and western central Brazil (WCB) from positive to negative defined the ONR, from negative to positive, the DER dates. Since the monsoon convection presents a northwest–southeast oriented progression, the antisymmetric area to the WCB was selected subjectively. Thus, here we propose to use the Ward hierarchical clustering method to select areas in the SAMS and in the northern tropical America (NTA) for the regionalized AOLR calculation. The significant (at the 95% confidence level) negative correlations with the largest magnitude among the clusters in the SAMS and NTA and the outgoing long‐wave radiation (OLR) and precipitation annual cycles in each group define the pairs to calculate the AOLR. Then, the AOLR time series is calculated and subjected to a 5‐pentad running mean filter. This method keeps the climatological features of the convection annual cycle such that the closer (farther) the pair is to the equator the longer (shorter) the rainy season. The ONR and DER dates found with this new method are remarkably close to those found previously. Therefore, the new method proposed here highlights regional aspects of rainy season and can easily be automatized for its routine application at the operational climate monitoring centres, for instance at INPE. This is the most important advantage of the method and might be relevant to the SAMS rainy season monitoring.

Evaluation of Spatial Interpolation Techniques for Operational Climate Monitoring in the Philippines

Evaluation of Spatial Interpolation Techniques for Operational Climate Monitoring in the Philippines

A Seasonal Rainfall Performance Probability Tool for Famine Early Warning Systems

AbstractThis paper reports on the development of a new statistical tool that generates probabilistic outlooks of seasonal precipitation anomaly categories over Africa. Called the seasonal performance probability (SPP), it quantitatively evaluates the probability of precipitation to finish at predefined percent-of-normal anomaly categories corresponding to below-average (<80% of normal), average (80%–120% of normal), and above-average (>120% of normal) conditions. This is accomplished by applying methods for kernel density estimation (KDE), which compute smoothed, continuous density functions on the basis of more than 30 years of historical precipitation data from the Africa Rainfall Climatology, version 2, dataset (ARC2) for the remaining duration of a monsoon season. Discussion of various parameterizations of KDE and testing to determine optimality of density estimates (and thus performance of SPP for operational monitoring) are presented. Verification results from 2006 to 2015 show that SPP reliably provides probabilistic outcomes of seasonal rainfall anomaly categories by after the early to midstages of rain seasons for the major monsoon regions in East Africa, West Africa, and southern Africa. SPP has proven to be a useful tool by enhancing operational climate monitoring at CPC for its prognostic capability for famine early warning scenarios over Africa. These insights are anticipated to translate into better decision-making in food security, planning, and response objectives for the U.S. Agency for International Development/Famine Early Warning Systems Network (USAID/FEWS NET).

Improved Historical Temperature and Precipitation Time Series for U.S. Climate Divisions

AbstractThis paper describes an improved edition of the climate division dataset for the conterminous United States (i.e., version 2). The first improvement is to the input data, which now include additional station networks, quality assurance reviews, and temperature bias adjustments. The second improvement is to the suite of climatic elements, which now includes both maximum and minimum temperatures. The third improvement is to the computational approach, which now employs climatologically aided interpolation to address topographic and network variability. Version 2 exhibits substantial differences from version 1 over the period 1895–2012. For example, divisional averages in version 2 tend to be cooler and wetter, particularly in mountainous areas of the western United States. Division-level trends in temperature and precipitation display greater spatial consistency in version 2. National-scale temperature trends in version 2 are comparable to those in the U.S. Historical Climatology Network whereas version 1 exhibits less warming as a result of historical changes in observing practices. Divisional errors in version 2 are likely less than 0.5°C for temperature and 20 mm for precipitation at the start of the record, falling rapidly thereafter. Overall, these results indicate that version 2 can supersede version 1 in both operational climate monitoring and applied climatic research.

Regional drought in the southern of South America: physical aspects

From the indices of monthly and annual climatic drought in six regions in southern South America and their associations with seventeen predictors, the probable physical causes of droughts are analyzed. These indices are used in operational climate monitoring and describe the atmospheric temperature and sea surface temperature (SST) near South America. Subtropical anticyclone activity over both coasts of South America is one of the main predictors, together with its interaction with the continental depression and SST at the coast of Brazil. The highest predictability concentrates in November-December-May and the lowest in March, June and August. In the sub regional scale, the main predictors respond to atmospheric pressure anomalies in the Atlantic Ocean for Argentinean Northwest (NOA), SST in the Brazilian coast for Argentinean Northeast (NEA), anticyclonic conditions over the Pacific and Atlantic for the Central West (CO), the latter and their interaction with the continental depression for Humid Pampa (PH), anticyclonic activity over the Pacific for the Patagonia (PAT) and trans cordillera circulation for Central Chile and Comahue (CHI).

Operational climate monitoring from space: the EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring (CM-SAF)

Abstract. The Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring (CM-SAF) aims at the provision of satellite-derived geophysical parameter data sets suitable for climate monitoring. CM-SAF provides climatologies for Essential Climate Variables (ECV), as required by the Global Climate Observing System implementation plan in support of the UNFCCC. Several cloud parameters, surface albedo, radiation fluxes at the top of the atmosphere and at the surface as well as atmospheric temperature and humidity products form a sound basis for climate monitoring of the atmosphere. The products are categorized in monitoring data sets obtained in near real time and data sets based on carefully intercalibrated radiances. The CM-SAF products are derived from several instruments on-board operational satellites in geostationary and polar orbit as the Meteosat and NOAA satellites, respectively. The existing data sets will be continued using data from the instruments on-board the new joint NOAA/EUMETSAT Meteorological Operational Polar satellite. The products have mostly been validated against several ground-based data sets both in situ and remotely sensed. The accomplished accuracy for products derived in near real time is sufficient to monitor variability on diurnal and seasonal scales. The demands on accuracy increase the longer the considered time scale is. Thus, interannual variability or trends can only be assessed if the sensor data are corrected for jumps created by instrument changes on successive satellites and more subtle effects like instrument and orbit drift and also changes to the spectral response function of an instrument. Thus, a central goal of the recently started Continuous Development and Operations Phase of the CM-SAF (2007–2012) is to further improve all CM-SAF data products to a quality level that allows for studies of interannual variability.

Enhancement of ERBS data by using data from sounders onboard NPP/NPOESS and METOP satellites

The operational climate monitoring and diagnostic community will continue to favor in using outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) estimates that have long and continuous time series such as those estimated from the High Resolution Infrared Sounder (HIRS). OLR from HIRS data could be generated since these data exist since 1979 and will continue during NPOESS era with Cross-Track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) and HIRS/4 on NPOESS and METOP satellites, respectively. OLR estimated from Earth Radiation Budget Suite (ERBS)/Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) can be used to calibrate the HIRS technique that will be used to generate continuous time series of OLR. This will ensure to have a consistent climate data involving different data sources. OLR generated from CrIS on the afternoon orbit could provide a backup in the event of ERBS’s failure. There will be three evenly spaced sounders (two CrIS and one HIRS/4) that could be used to retrieve OLR allowing therefore a better definition of the diurnal variability of OLR. This paper will present results from GOES sounder data to estimate OLR using an approach similar to that used for HIRS. The instantaneous OLR estimates are compared with collocated OLR products from the CERES instruments onboard TRMM and Terra spacecraft to establish the instantaneous accuracy of the multi-spectral estimation techniques for homogeneous scenes. The hourly GOES sounder OLR estimates are used to study the diurnal cycle of OLR. The time-averaged data are used to estimate the accuracy of the ERBE/CERES and HIRS diurnal cycle models as applied to daily- and monthly-averaged products at different spatial resolutions. The study suggests that the technique can be implemented for NPOESS using the CrIS and HIRS/4 for both augmenting the temporal sampling of OLR estimates and reducing the risk of OLR EDR generation.

Final Statement of the Second World Climate Conference

Climate issues reach far beyond the atmospheric and oceanic sciences, affecting every aspect of life on this planet. The issues are increasingly pivotal in determining future environmental and economic well-being. Variations of climate have profound effects on natural and managed systems, the economies of nations, and the wellbeing of people everywhere. A clear scientific consensus has emerged on estimates of the range of global warming which can be expected during the 21 st century. If the increase of concentrations of ‘greenhouse’ gases is not limited, the predicted climate change would place stresses on natural and social systems unprecedented in the past 10,000 years.At the First World Climate Conference, in 1979, nations were urged ‘to foresee and to prevent potential man-made changes in climate that might be adverse to the well-being of humanity’. The Second World Climate Conference concludes that, notwithstanding scientific and economic uncertainties, nations should now take steps towards reducing sources and increasing sinks of ‘greenhouse’ gases through national and regional actions, with due negotiation of a global convention on climate change and related legal instruments. The long-term goal should be to halt the build-up of ‘greenhouse’ gases at a level that minimizes risks to society and natural ecosystems. The remaining uncertainties must not be the basis for deferring societal responses to these risks. Many of the actions that would reduce risk are also desirable on other grounds.A major international observational and research effort will be essential to strengthen the knowledge-base on climate processes and human interactions, and to provide the basis for operational climate monitoring and prediction.