Open Unemployment Rate Research Articles

APPLIED MIXED KERNEL AND FOURIER SERIES MODELLING IN NONPARAMETRIC REGRESSION

There are three nonparametric regression approaches, namely, parametric, nonparametric and semi-parametric regression. Nonparametric regression allows the response variable to follow a different curve from one predictor variable to another. In paired data, the components of predictor variable and the response variable are assumed to follow unknown data patterns, so that they can be approximated by a kernel based regression model and Fourier series. The base components are approximated by kernel functions and Fourier series functions. Error is assumed to be normally distributed with zero mean and constant variance. The aim of this research is to make a kernel-based nonparametric regression model and Fourier series on poverty data in the Province of Bali. The research phase method begins with the introduction of the kernel based nonparametric regression model and the Fourier series. The next step is to study the estimation of the regression curve. The function estimation results are highly dependent on the bandwidth, smoothing and oscillation parameters. The resulting model gives a value of R2=0.6278, means that the used variables can explain the model by 62.78 percent. From the obtained modeling re-sults, the Open Unemployment Rate has a positive effect on the percentage of poor people in Bali. Keywords: Nonparametric Regression; Modeling; Kernel; Fourier Series.

THE EFFECT OF FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC INVESTMENT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH WITH THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AS AN INTERVENING VARIABLE

This research aims to analyze the influence of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Domestic Direct Investment (DDI) on economic growth through the open unemployment rate (OUR) as an intervening variable. The research object covers Balikpapan City from 2010 to 2023. A quantitative research method is used together with the path analysis technique. The research results indicate that partially, FDI does not significantly affect the unemployment rate but has a negative and significant influence on economic growth. DDI has a negative and significant effect on the unemployment rate and a significant positive effect on economic growth. The unemployment rate has a negative and significant effect on economic growth. Based on path analysis results, the unemployment rate only successfully mediates significant influence between FDI and economic growth, but in the relationship between DDI and economic growth, it fails to mediate

Estimation of the Unemployment Rate in Indonesia Using Nonparametric Spline Regression

The COVID-19 pandemic impact is not only on health but on all aspects of life, one of the socio-economic aspects is unemployment. The linear regression be used as a method in modeling the unemployment rate frequently. Whereas linear regression is inappropriate for data that have trends or irregular relationship patterns such as unemployment rate data. Therefore, this research used of the nonparametric spline regression method. It can produce more flexible curves according to the flatline of data based on optimum knots at the optimum value of the cross validation. There are several factors suggested that affect the Unemployment Rate (TPT ), including the number of positive COVID cases, labor force participation rate, economic growth and human development index. The purpose of this study is to find out if there is a difference between the open unemployment rate (TPT) in Indonesia before and during the pandemic. The Data used are secondary data obtained from Badan Pusat Statistika (BPS). The calculations results show that there are differences between the models of the unemployment rate before and during the pandemic. Generally there are three significant variables in the before the pandemic model: variables of economic growth (PE) and the human development index (IPM), while during the pandemic the significant variable are the labor force participation rate (TPAK) and economic growth (PE).

The Effect of Gross Regional Domestic Product, Human Development Index and Open Unemployment Rate on Economic Growth in Central Java in 2020-2022

Economic growth is a recurring issue that requires hard work and is expected to improve faster in both developed and developing countries. The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of Gross Regional Domestic Product (GDRP), Human Development Index (HDI), and Open Unemployment Rate (TPT) on Central Java's economic growth between 2020 and 2022. Economic growth data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) 2020–2022 report was used to calculate the sample size using the quantitative purposive sampling method. Panel data analysis was used in the Eviews program to examine the data, because the data findings used were time series and cross-section data combined into one. The research findings show that although the Open Unemployment Rate (TPT) has no significant effect on economic growth in Central Java from 2021 to 2022, GRDP and HDI have a substantial impact.

Analysis of Socio-economic Variables Impacting Poverty Alleviation in Regional Development: A Case Study in Deli Serdang Regency, Indonesia

This study analyzes the impact of macro socio-economic variables on poverty alleviation within the context of regional development in North Sumatra Province from 2019 to 2023. The socio-economic variables examined include economic growth, average years of schooling, life expectancy, and the open unemployment rate. The research employs a panel data regression approach using the Fixed Effect Model, selected based on Chow and Hausman test results, to determine the best model fit. The findings reveal that economic growth, average years of schooling, and life expectancy have significant negative effects on poverty reduction, indicating that improvements in these areas help alleviate poverty. Conversely, the open unemployment rate shows a significant positive effect on poverty levels, suggesting that higher unemployment exacerbates poverty. The model explains 99% of the variation in poverty (R² = 0.990), indicating a high explanatory power. Based on these results, the study recommends the implementation of inclusive economic policies focusing on boosting economic growth, improving educational access, enhancing healthcare systems, and creating job opportunities to effectively reduce poverty. Additionally, further research with broader geographical coverage and more refined methods is necessary to enrich the understanding of poverty determinants in different regional contexts.

ANALISIS PERAN PEMERINTAH DALAM PENGENDALIAN TINGKAT PENGANGGURAN TERBUKA DI JAWA TIMUR PASCA COVID-19

The post-COVID-19 open unemployment rate (TPT) tends to rise sharply. In this case, the role of the government needs to be focused on The government's role can be reflected through three main mechanisms to keep the open unemployment rate down mechanisms in keeping the TPT down, namely setting the minimum wage, stimulating economic growth, and population control. economic growth, and population control. This study aims to determine the impact of the government's role in controlling the open unemployment rate in East Java. open unemployment in East Java. This study uses secondary data in the form of panel data, with a time span of 2017-2022 and covering 38 districts/cities in East Java. districts/cities in East Java. The analysis method used is the panel data method. panel data method. The results show that the minimum wage contributes to increase in unemployment, economic growth can reduce unemployment, while population control also reduces unemployment rate. Therefore, the government needs to consider the positive and negative impacts of the three instruments to achieve an optimal effect.

ANALISIS PENGARUH IPM, UPAH MINIMUM, TPT DAN BANTUAN SOSIAL TERHADAP TINGKAT KEMISKINAN DI PROVINSI JAWA TIMUR TAHUN 2017-2022

Poverty is a social problem that arises in economic development and can cause other problems. Therefore, there is a need for solutions to overcome the problem of poverty. This study aims to determine the role of Human Development Index (HDI), Open Unemployment Rate, minimum wage and social assistance spending on poverty rate in East Java. The sample of this study is 34 regencies and cities in East Java Province during 2017-2022. In this study, only 34 districts and cities were used because there were two cities that did not have the realization of social assistance spending. The data used in this study is secondary data sourced from BPS and DJPK of the Ministry of Finance. The method used is panel data regression with FEM (Fixed Effect Model). The results of this study show that each HDI has a significant negative effect and TPT has a significant positive effect on the poverty rate in East Java Province in 2017-2022. Meanwhile, the Minimum Wage and Social Assistance respectively have no significant effect on the poverty rate in East Java Province in 2017-2022.

PENGARUH PERKEMBANGAN TEKNOLOGI, KUALITAS SDM, PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI, DAN INVESTASI TERHADAP TPT

Unemployment is a macro problem that grows due to the imbalance between economic growth and increased employment. East Java Province made various efforts to reduce the open unemployment rate. To overcome the unemployment problem in East Java, several indicators are of concern to be studied, namely technological development, quality of human resources (HR), economic growth, and investment in 2015-2022. The purpose of this study is to findout the factors that can affect TPT in East Java. This study uses panel data, through classical assumption tests to hypothesis tests, with secondary data types coming from the official website of BPS (Central Statistics Agency). The estimation results suggest that technological developments, the quality of human resources, and investment tend to increase the number of TPT in East Java. Meanwhile, economic growth tends to reduce the TPT figure in East Java. This research can be a learning material about unemployment.

Faktor Penentu Tingkat Pengangguran Provinsi Kepulauan Riau

The dynamics of the region's labour market are called into question by the continually higher open unemployment rate in the province of Riau Islands compared to the national average. Using the years 2017–2023, this study looks into the causes of open unemployment in the province of Riau Islands. With an emphasis on the function of public spending, ease of access to technology, and GDP expansion. Using Eviews 12 software's FEM specification test and a quantitative method, this study evaluates secondary data provided from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) of the Riau Islands Province using panel data regression analysis. Government spending significantly lowers the open jobless rate, whereas technological advancement and economic progress significantly raise it. Based on these results, the Riau Islands Province needs effective policies to lower the open unemployment rate, maximise the use of government funds, and tap into the possibilities of technological access and economic growth.

ANALISIS PENGARUH PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DAN INVESTASI TERHADAP TINGKAT PENGANGGURAN TERBUKA PROVINSI BALI 2019-2022

The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of investment and economic growth on the open unemployment rate in Bali Province in 2019-2022. This research uses quantitative research methods and multiple linear regression analysis methods. The research uses secondary data sourced from the central statistics agency and the investment coordinating agency and panel data methods. The results of the study show that economic growth has a significant and negative effect on the level of open unemployment; This means that an increase in economic growth causes a decrease in the unemployment rate, whereas if economic growth decreases it causes the unemployment rate to decrease. Furthermore, investment has an insignificant and positive effect on the unemployment rate; This means that an increase in the investment value causes the unemployment rate to increase, whereas if there is a decrease in the investment value it causes the unemployment rate to decrease.

Strategi Perekrutan dan Pelatihan dalam Mengurangi Angka Pengangguran pada Dinas Tenaga Kerja dan Transmigrasi Kabupaten Karawang

In Karawang Regency, the high open unemployment rate in 2020 reached 11.52%, becoming a serious challenge that has the potential to cause negative impacts such as poverty, increased crime, school dropouts, and an increase in the number of beggars on the streets. This research aims to find effective strategies in reducing the unemployment rate in Karawang Regency through recruitment and training policies. This research uses qualitative research methods, located at the Karawang Regency Manpower and Transmigration Service. In this research, the data analysis technique used is a qualitative technique. Data source testing is carried out through the triangulation method, which aims to ensure that information from different sources is re-evaluated. Apart from that, expansion can be done by combining the results of the interviews. Strategies for reducing the unemployment rate in Karawang Regency include recruitment through the infoloker website which focuses on local placements and competency-based training to improve job seeker skills. As a result, the Karawang Manpower Office has succeeded in implementing an effective strategy in reducing unemployment in Karawang Regency. This strategy includes competency-based training and recruitment via the infoloker website. Competency-based training ensures trainees develop skills and knowledge that are relevant and applicable in their work context. Meanwhile, the infoloker website facilitates the job search process, making it more effective and efficient for labor users and job seekers. These strategies have shown a positive impact in reducing unemployment and improving the quality of the workforce in Karawang Regency.

Dampak TPT, IPM dan Jumlah Penduduk terhadap Melebarnya Ketimpangan Pendapatan antar Daerah di Jawa Timur

The study was conducted to determine the influence of the open unemployment rate (TPT), human development index (HDI), and population on income inequality between districts/cities in East Java in 2018-2023. This study uses secondary data by combining cross-section and time series data. This data was taken from the official website of the BPS (Central Statistics Agency) of East Java Province, and then analyzed using panel data regression techniques by carrying out the t-test, f-test and coefficient of determination. The results show that the open unemployment rate does not effect on income inequality, while the human development index and population have a positive and significant effect on income inequality. Based on the results of this research, it is hoped that the government can carry out equitable economic development in each region and the community is expected to play an active role in the economic development process.

ANALYSIS OF UNEMPLOYED YOUTH IN INDONESIA BY PANEL DATA REGRESSION WITH MODERATING VARIABLE

Indonesia is entering the era of demographic bonus with the productive age dominating the population. Productive age is the main focus of the government in maximizing the demographic dividend, but Indonesia has the highest percentage of Not in employment, education or training (NEET) in Asia. NEET are people on 15 – 24 years old who do other activities outside of school, work or training. This study aims to analyze NEET in Indonesia using panel data with moderate regression analysis. The analysis of multiple linear regression is focused on the relationship between the independent and dependent variables without taking into other possible outcomes. By inserting a moderating variable, this study explores the relationship between the independent and dependent variables differently and aims to strengthen or weaken it. Under certain conditions, the relationship between the independent and dependent variables can be explained by the moderating variable. The research data used were obtained from the employment book and the website of BPS Indonesia, in the form of 34 cross section and 5 years time series data that tends to be stationary. The dependent variable is NEET with 5 independent variables including Human development index, the open unemployment rate, labor force participation rate, proportion of individuals who own phone, and proportion of informal employment. The moderating variable is the proportion of youth aged with ICT skills. The best model in regression analysis panel data is FEM with 4 significant independent variables and 92.75% of R-square. Moderating variable can moderates the relationship of NEET with its independent variables and increased the R-square to 94.19%.

The Impact of Self-Efficacy on Career Choices of Generation Z: The Mediating Role of Decision-Making Difficulties in DKI Jakarta

The Generation Z population is the largest demographic group in Indonesia currently entering the workforce. However, data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) indicates that youth unemployment remains a critical issue in the employment sector. The increasing open unemployment rate among Generation Z can be attributed to an imbalance between labor demand and supply, as well as career decision-making processes during school or university periods. This study aims to analyze the factors influencing OUR among Generation Z, specifically through the career decision-making process before entering the workforce. Furthermore, this research examines the influence of Self-Efficacy in Career Decision-Making on Career Decisions through the mediating variable of Career Decision-Making Difficulties. The methodology employed is a survey, with data collected via questionnaires distributed to 104 respondents who meet the study criteria. The instruments used include the Career Decision Scale (CDS), the short-form Career Decision-Making Self-Efficacy (CDMSE-SF), and the Career Decision-Making Difficulties Questionnaire (CDDQ). The findings reveal an indirect influence of Self-Efficacy in Career Decision-Making on Career Decisions, mediated by Career Decision-Making Difficulties among Generation Z individuals entering the workforce in DKI Jakarta.

Analisis Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Indeks Pembangunan Manusia (IPM) Jawa Timur 2021 Menggunakan Metode Regresi Logistik Ordinal

In order to improve the welfare and prosperity of the population, local governments make efforts known as regional development. One of the tools used to measure this progress is the human development index. The purpose of this study is to determine the human development index in each district or city in East Java in 2021. Some variables that are thought to affect the human development index include the open unemployment rate, labor force participation rate, poverty rate, life expectancy, average years of schooling and expected years of schooling.

Analysis of Millennial Unemployment Among Higher Education Graduates in West Java in 2022

In August 2022, Indonesia has an open unemployment rate (TPT) of 5,86 percent with the highest province, West Java at 8,31 percent, which is still quite far from the target of the 2020?2024 National Medium-Term Development Plan (RPJMN) of 3,6?4,3 percent. This situation is exacerbated by the highly educated labour force (diplomas and bachelors) which is only absorbed by 11,81 percent, and the percentage of highly educated millennial unemployment covered by the age of 25?44 years is 46,1 percent. This study was conducted to analyze the general picture and variables that affect millennial unemployment of university graduates in West Java in 2022 using the firth logit method. The data used is raw data from the August 2022 National Labor Force Survey (Sakernas) in West Java. The results of this study are 3.61 percent who have the status of unemployed millennial college graduates, then there are variables of marital status, ownership of training certificates, and work experience have a significant effect on the unemployment status of millennial college graduates in West Java in 2022.

Analisis Dampak Keterbukaan Perdagangan Internasional Terhadap Ketimpangan Pendapatan dalam Perspektif Ekonomi Islam pada 34 Provinsi di Indonesia Tahun 2018-2022

This research aims to analyze the impact of international trade openness on income inequality. The impact of international trade openness is to increase foreign direct investment entering a country. The higher the level of foreign direct investment (FDI), the greater the possibility of income inequality. This can be caused by the uneven trickling down effect of foreign investment. High unemployment rates can result in lower incomes for the remaining workers, which in turn increases income inequality. Then, high inflation can cause a decrease in people's purchasing power, which in turn can increase income inequality. The research method used is a quantitative method. The type of data used is secondary data taken from the official website of the Indonesian Central Statistics Agency (BPS). The data analysis method used in this research is panel data analysis, regression model selection, classical assumption testing, and hypothesis testing using a data analysis tool, namely E-views version 10. The results of this research show that Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has a positive effect and significant to income inequality, the Open Unemployment Rate (TPT) has no effect on income inequality, and Inflation has a negative and significant effect on income inequality

The Influence of Open Unemployment Rates, Inflation and Minimum Wages on Income Inequality in The North Sumatra Region

Income inequality is the existence of differences in income in a society, giving rise to real income inequality in society. As a result, the rich get richer and the poor get poorer. In fact, when it comes to income inequality, the more flexible wages are, the greater the impact on employment. However, inflexible wages, which are said to be an inability to respond to changing market conditions, lead to ever-increasing poverty and inequality. This research aims to determine the correlation between the influence of open poverty levels, inflation and minimum wages on income inequality in North Sumatra. The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) noted that the level of expenditure disparity between residents in North Sumatra has widened since September 2023. The Gini ratio, which measures this inequality, is recorded as high. BPS Based on North Sumatra data, this large deviation was caused by the increase in fuel prices at the beginning of September last year. The research method used is Multiple Linear Regression which is processed using eviews 10 software. The approach used in this research uses a quantitative approach with associative analysis, with a population from the North Sumatra BPS report for 2014-2023. The results show that the open unemployment rate and minimum wage have an effect on income inequality. Therefore, the solution offered is a policy of establishing equal distribution of employment income by opening job vacancies and training as well as equal distribution of salary income which is applied evenly in various regions so as to reduce income inequality in North Sumatra

KLASIFIKASI TINGKAT PENGANGGURAN TERBUKA DI PULAU JAWA MENGGUNAKAN REGRESI LOGISTIK ORDINAL

Unemployment is one of the indicators for measuring the economic conditions of a region. It is also a social and economic problem in many countries, including Indonesia, especially in areas with a density of economic activity, such as Java Island. The purpose of this study was to classify and analyze the factors that affect the open unemployment rate in cities and regions on Java Island, which are categorized as low, medium, and high. The research method used in this study was ordinal logistic regression analysis. The data source comes from the BPS website in 2023 with four predictor variables: population size, labor force participation rate, average years of schooling, and gross regional domestic product at constant prices. The research results show that the variables population size and labor force participation rate had a significant effect on the open unemployment rate, while the variables average years of schooling and gross regional domestic product at constant prices did not have a significant effect on the open unemployment rate with the accuracy of the ordinal logistic model is 77.27%.

Analisis Determinan Tingkat Kemiskinan di Pulau Madura Tahun 2015- 2023

This research aims to analyze the direct and indirect influence of the Human Development Index, Open Unemployment Rate, and Regency Minimum Wage on Poverty Levels on Madura Island. The data used in this research is a type of secondary data sourced from the Central Statistics Agency. The analytical method used is Multiple Linear Regression with panel data on the island of Madura for 9 years from 2015 to 2023. Based on the results of the analysis it is known that the Human Development Index has a negative and insignificant effect on the level of poverty, the Open Unemployment Rate has a positive and significant effect on the level of poverty, and the Regency Minimum Wage have a negative and insignificant effect on the poverty level.