Open Source Energy Modelling System Research Articles

A holistic analysis of environmental impacts and improvement pathways for the Brazilian electric sector based on long-term planning and life cycle assessment

Brazil presents a high share of renewable electricity generation, mainly due to its favorable hydroelectric potential. However, reports estimate that demand will grow substantially in the long term, requiring a significant diversification of the electricity mix. In this context, this paper analyzes how the environmental impacts of electricity generation tend to change over the horizon 2025–2050 in Brazil and identifies improvement opportunities accounting for environmental and economic factors. To do so, the Open Source Energy Modeling System (OSeMOSYS) is applied to estimate the composition of the electricity mix in 2050. Then, life cycle assessment (LCA) is used to evaluate the associated environmental impacts across ten categories. Lastly, hybrid weighted ɛ-constraint multi-objective optimization (MOO) is employed to evaluate which sources can be used to minimize climate change and the levelized cost of electricity while ensuring that other categories are reasonably restrained. The results indicate that the environmental performance of the Brazilian electricity matrix tends to deteriorate substantially, both when analyzing overall impacts and impacts per kWh. Moreover, the proposed MOO approach suggests that some sources, mainly hydropower, onshore wind, and centralized PV present an all-around economic/environmental performance and might be favorable for expanding the power system.

Long-Term Energy System Modelling for a Clean Energy Transition and Improved Energy Security in Botswana’s Energy Sector Using the Open-Source Energy Modelling System

This research examines Botswana’s significant reliance on coal and imported fossil fuels for electricity generation, contributing to high carbon emissions and energy insecurity influenced by volatile fuel prices and supply challenges. The study utilizes the Open-Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS) to explore cost-effective renewable energy strategies to meet Botswana’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and enhance energy security by 2050, analysing six scenarios: Least Cost (LC), Business-As-Usual (BAU), Net Zero by 2050 (NZ), Coal Phase Out by 2045 (CPO), Fossil Fuel Phase Out by 2045 (FFPO), and Import Phase Out by 2045 (IMPPO). Our key findings highlight the critical role of solar technologies—photovoltaic (PV), storage, and concentrated solar power (CSP)—in transitioning to a sustainable energy future, especially under the Net Zero and Import Phase Out scenarios. This research demonstrates the economic and environmental benefits of transitioning away from fossil fuels, with the Fossil Fuel Phase Out scenario yielding a USD 31 million saving over the Business-As-Usual approach and reducing investment costs by USD 2 billion, albeit with a slight increase in light fuel oil imports. The study underscores the need for substantial capital investments, particularly in the Net Zero and Import Phase Out scenarios, necessitating private sector financing. Policy recommendations include adopting detailed strategies for solar PV and storage expansion, updating renewable energy targets, phasing out coal and natural gas, and bolstering the regulatory framework. These strategies are crucial for Botswana to achieve decarbonization and energy independence, aligning with global climate goals and national energy security objectives.

A Critical Analysis of Morocco’s Green Hydrogen Roadmap: A Modelling Approach to Assess Country Readiness from the Energy Trilemma Perspective

Morocco, despite its heavy reliance on imported fossil fuels, which made up 68% of electricity generation in 2020, has recognised its significant renewable energy potential. The Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) commitment is to reduce emissions by 45.5% from baseline levels with international assistance and abstain from constructing new coal plants. Moreover, the Green Hydrogen Roadmap aims to export 10 TWh of green hydrogen by 2030, as well as use it for local electricity storage. This paper critically analyses this Roadmap and Morocco’s readiness to reach its ambitious targets, focusing specifically on an energy trilemma perspective and using OSeMOSYS (Open-Source energy Modelling System) for energy modelling. The results reveal that the NDC scenario is only marginally more expensive than the least-cost scenario, at around 1.3% (approximately USD 375 million), and facilitates a 23.32% emission reduction by 2050. An important note is the continued reliance on existing coal power plants across all scenarios, which challenges both energy security and emissions. The assessment of the Green Hydrogen Scenarios highlights that it could be too costly for the Moroccan government to fund the Green Hydrogen Roadmap at this scale, which leads to increased imports of polluting fossil fuels for cost reduction. In fact, the emission levels are 39% higher in the green hydrogen exports scenario than in the least-cost scenario. Given these findings, it is recommended that the Green Hydrogen Roadmap be re-evaluated, with a suggestion for a postponement and reduction in scope.

Modelling Policy Pathways to Maximise Renewable Energy Growth and Investment in the Democratic Republic of the Congo Using OSeMOSYS (Open Source Energy Modelling System)

This study sought to generate, evaluate, and recommend possible national policies for the government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) to implement to most effectively boost growth and investment in renewable energy technologies (RETs) through 2065 using Open Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS). The novelty of this study stems in-part from the scarcity of RET modelling completed for specific West African countries rather than for broader regions. Market-based instruments were identified as the policy type most practical for DRC. From modelling the resulting energy systems for policy pathways involving a 16% RET subsidy, a 70% fossil fuel tax, and both in combination relative to no-policy baseline scenarios, the scenarios including the tax had the lowest net costs (USD304–306 B) and the highest proportion of RETs (above 90%). Additionally, despite the current reliance on hydropower to fulfil 98% of its energy needs, hydropower played a very minor role in all of a modelled scenarios (no future investment beyond residual capacity). Finally, a post-modelling market potential assessment was performed on the technology that dominated off-grid supply across policy pathways: a 0.3 kW small solar home system (SHS). Based on learning rates for solar photovoltaics (PV), demand for a small SHS in DRC (>160 million units in total) was found to be sufficient to substantially reduce the unit cost as deployment scales. Ultimately, this study yielded four recommendations for the DRC government: (1) Pursue financial incentives to catalyse DRC’s renewable energy supply. (2) Tax fossil fuel energy production. (3) Re-evaluate focus on hydropower. (4) Promote DRC as a healthy market for solar home systems.

Integrated climate, land, energy, and water framework to support the Nationally Determined Contribution updating process

System models help policymakers to produce net zero decarbonization pathways. In 2019, Costa Rica launched its National Decarbonization Plan (NDP) – constructed using a detailed Open-Source energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS-CR) model and simplified ones for non-energy sectors. The country then developed an integrated Climate, Land, Energy and Water (CLEW) model to capture synergies across sectors and guide future climate related processes. This resulted in the CLEW-CR model. In 2020, the country updated its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), deploying a highly participatory process supported by the CLEW-CR model to guide the discussions with over 150 stakeholders. This paper presents the framework adopted to develop the CLEW-CR model (from data collection to scenarios creation and cost-benefit analysis) and describes its use to align its NDCs with its NDP. Over 15 different scenarios were produced to inform the country's dialogue during the updating process of its NDCs demonstrating the flexibility of this model to support multiple policy questions. This paper shows that deploying the NDC by 2030 and the NDP by 2050 would result in a net economic benefit of $55 billion – about 85 % of Costa Rica's GDP, highlighting the economic viability of Costa Rica's commitment to a sustainable future.

Pathways to Clean Energy Transition in Indonesia’s Electricity Sector with Open-Source Energy Modelling System Modelling (OSeMOSYS)

Responding to the Paris Agreement and climate change mitigation, Indonesia aims to reach net zero by 2060 or sooner. Due to Indonesia’s dependence on coal and growing consumption, alternative sources of clean energy are imperative for meeting its rising energy needs and reducing energy-related greenhouse gas emissions to achieve the energy transition. This project aims to examine Indonesia’s opportunities and potential to achieve low carbon ambition in the energy sector and identify alternative pathways for the energy transition in Indonesia. In this study, the open-source energy modelling system (OSeMOSYS), which is a long-term energy system modelling tool, is employed to compare electricity generation, investment, and carbon dioxide emissions between business-as-usual and five alternative scenarios. Six scenarios, including business as usual, least-cost, two coal-phrase out and two net zero aligned with national climate targets and optimal scenarios, were simulated across different target years. The results show that the net zero (NZ) scenario is more cost-effective and emits fewer greenhouse gases than the other scenarios in meeting Indonesia’s future energy demand. However, achieving net zero by 2050 (NZ50) results in significantly lower CO2 emissions (10,134 MtCO2), which is less than half of the emissions in the net zero by 2060 (NZ60) scenario (16,849 MtCO2) at a similar cost (6229 and 6177 billion USD, respectively). This paper’s insights emphasise that large-scale renewable energy deployment and coal retirement are critical pathways to reaching carbon neutrality and achieving the energy mix transition.

LONGTERM OPTIMIZATION MODEL FOR THE GAMBIA’S ENERGY TRANSITION

The energy sector in the Gambia is entirely dependent on imported petroleum products for electricity generation. The country is not only vulnerable to global oil market disruptions but also has an unstable electricity supply system. As of 2020, a huge portion of the country’s electricity demand remains unsatisfied. Following recent government intervention to improve the energy system, this paper examined the optimal capacity expansion planning using the open-source energy modelling system (OSeMOSYS) on a time horizon of thirty years, (2020-2050). The three scenarios studied include the business as usual (BAU), which reflects the continuation with the existing power generation pattern, the second scenario (roadmap) aligns with the Gambia’s strategic electricity roadmap (2021-2040) and the third scenario considered high renewable penetration in the energy mix. Contrary to policy makers expectations, renewables accounted for only 19.2% of electricity generation in the roadmap by 2030 and 11% by 2050. CO2 emission in 2050 reduced by 31% in the roadmap scenario and 71% in the new scenario. The global cost of the new scenario is 29% more expensive than the roadmap scenario but becomes more competitive than the roadmap in terms of energy cost when the capital investment is fully subsidised in all scenarios.

Assessing the effects of energy efficiency and different tariff policies on energy mix for decarbonization

The objective of this work is to evaluate the effects of different energy policies designed to favor decarbonization by increasing renewable sources. In particular, the implementation of energy efficiency policies and the application of hourly differential electricity tariffs. The Open-Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS) has been adopted to visualize the effects of each of the actions in the short, medium, and long term, from 2024 till 2046. From our results, the application of hourly differentiation tariffs does not favor either the increase in the implementation of renewable sources or decarbonization processes. The implementation of energy efficiency policies (1-1.25% annual demand decrease), in the long term, allows to reach 80% of energy production from renewable sources. In all the scenarios, the energy sources with a greater level of intermittency, such as wind or solar, strongly increased their contribution in the medium-term, thereby stabilizing their long-term contribution. Finally, the implementation of photovoltaic solar energy becomes necessary only in the long-term. It seems clear that this contribution, up to 20% of the renewable, is associated with the nuclear blackout.

Global sensitivity analysis to enhance the transparency and rigour of energy system optimisation modelling.

Background: Energy system optimisation models (ESOMs) are commonly used to support long-term planning at national, regional, or continental scales. The importance of recognising uncertainty in energy system modelling is regularly commented on but there is little practical guidance on how to best incorporate existing techniques, such as global sensitivity analysis, despite some good applications in the literature. Methods: In this paper, we provide comprehensive guidelines for conducting a global sensitivity analysis of an ESOM, aiming to remove barriers to adopting this approach. With a pedagogical intent, we begin by exploring why you should conduct a global sensitivity analysis. We then describe how to implement a global sensitivity analysis using the Morris method in an ESOM using a sequence of simple illustrative models built using the Open Source energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS) framework, followed by a realistic example. Results: Results show that the global sensitivity analysis identifies influential parameters that drive results in the simple and realistic models, and identifies uninfluential parameters which can be ignored or fixed. We show that global sensitivity analysis can be applied to ESOMs with relative ease using freely available open-source tools. The results replicate the findings of best-practice studies from the field demonstrating the importance of including all parameters in the analysis and avoiding a narrow focus on particular parameters such as technology costs. Conclusions: The results highlight the benefits of performing a global sensitivity analysis for the design of energy system optimisation scenarios. We discuss how the results can be interpreted and used to enhance the transparency and rigour of energy system modelling studies.

Climate, Land, Energy and Water systems interactions – From key concepts to model implementation with OSeMOSYS

The Climate, Land, Energy and Water systems (CLEWs) approach guides the development of integrated assessments. The approach includes an analytical component that can be performed using simple accounting methods, soft-linking tools, incorporating cross-systems considerations in sectoral models, or using one modelling tool to represent CLEW systems. This paper describes how a CLEWs quantitative analysis can be performed using one single modelling tool, the Open Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS). Although OSeMOSYS was primarily developed for energy systems analysis, the tool’s functionality and flexibility allow for its application to CLEWs. A step-by-step explanation of how climate, land, energy, and water systems can be represented with OSeMOSYS, complemented with the interpretation of sets, parameters, and variables in the OSeMOSYS code, is provided. A hypothetical case serves as the basis for developing a modelling exercise that exemplifies the building of a CLEWs model in OSeMOSYS. System-centred scenario analysis is performed with the integrated model example to illustrate its application. The analysis of results shows how integrated insights can be derived from the quantitative exercise in the form of conflicts, trade-offs, opportunities, and synergies. In addition to the modelling exercise, using the OSeMOSYS-CLEWs example in teaching, training and open science is explored to support knowledge transfer and advancement in the field.

Potential Climate Change Risks to Meeting Zimbabwe’s NDC Goals and How to Become Resilient

Almost all countries have committed to develop Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) to reduce GHG emissions. They determine the level of GHG mitigation that, as a nation, they will commit to reducing. Zimbabwe has ambitious and laudable GHG mitigation targets. Compared to a coal-based future, emissions will be reduced by 33% per capita by 2030. If historical climate conditions continue, it can do this at low or negative cost if suitable sources of climate financing are in place. The NDC plots a positive future. However, much of Zimbabwe’s NDC mitigation center on hydropower generation and other measures that are dangerously vulnerable to climate change. Should the climate change in accordance with recent projections, these investments will be at risk, severely constraining electricity supply and causing high degrees of economic damage. This paper uses the Open-Source energy Modelling SYStem (OSeMOSYS) to consider two adaptation pathways that address this vulnerability. In the first, the country turns to a historically accessible option, namely the deployment of coal. In so doing, the electrical system is made more resilient, but emissions ramp up. The second pathway ‘climate proofs’ the power sector by boosting solar and wind capacity, using hydropower to provide balance for these new renewable resources, and introducing significant energy efficiency measures. This second pathway would require a set of extra accompanying investments and changes to the power market rules, but allows for both system resilience and NDC targets to be met. The paper shows that Zimbabwe’s low emissions growth can be made resilient, and while this path promises strong benefits, it also requires strong commitment and political will. From this paper insights are drawn and requirements for future analysis are made. Two critical insights are that: (i) NDCs that focus on mitigation should include resilience in their design. If they do not, they can introduce deep vulnerability; (ii) a departure from historical electricity market structures appears to hold potential for strong environmental, cost and reliability gains.

Regional energy security goes South: Examining energy integration in South America

This article proposes to promote a regional approach to achieving energy security in South America. To this end, it first discusses the concept of energy security, concluding that it is a concept slippery, hard to define universally, because it is polysemic, multi-dimensional and context-dependent. Analyzing the South American case, initially focusing only on the Mercosur countries, we identify that there are different regional integration initiatives, such as the case of Itaipu Dam and GASBOL Pipeline, however the experiences are exclusively based on binational initiatives. Through an energy modeling called Open Source energy Modelling System using a new framework named South America Model Base (OSeMOSYS SAMBA), four scenarios are created with different levels of energy integration in the region. It is concluded that more integrated scenarios lead to a reduction in the need to increase installed capacity, as well as lower geographic and socio-environmental impacts, due to resource optimization and greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation.

The role of energy efficiency in the management of water resources of the Syr Darya River basin

A motivation for integrated resource assessments is that they can capture indirect cross-sectoral effects of sectoral policies. This work investigates the electricity system implications from the implementation of basin-wide electricity and water systems efficiency measures. The spatial scope includes the four states that share the Syr Darya River basin. Different interests dictate the management of water resources in the basin. They are necessary for irrigation downstream in spring and summer and upstream, for hydropower generation during winter. The study investigated options to decrease the need for electricity upstream through efficiency measures and by the expansion of regional electricity trade. The scenarios were simulated by developing a multi-country electricity system model using the open source energy modelling system (OSeMOSYS). The results show that lesser investments in hydropower capacity could be needed and less water required in winter. This would reduce pressure on shared water resources.

The role of energy efficiency in the management of water resources of the Syr Darya River basin

A motivation for integrated resource assessments is that they can capture indirect cross-sectoral effects of sectoral policies. This work investigates the electricity system implications from the implementation of basin-wide electricity and water systems efficiency measures. The spatial scope includes the four states that share the Syr Darya River basin. Different interests dictate the management of water resources in the basin. They are necessary for irrigation downstream in spring and summer and upstream, for hydropower generation during winter. The study investigated options to decrease the need for electricity upstream through efficiency measures and by the expansion of regional electricity trade. The scenarios were simulated by developing a multi-country electricity system model using the open source energy modelling system (OSeMOSYS). The results show that lesser investments in hydropower capacity could be needed and less water required in winter. This would reduce pressure on shared water resources.

Development of functionalities for improved storage modelling in OSeMOSYS

Integrated systems modelling has provided insights on pathways for the sustainable use of energy, land and water resources. Among the existing modelling tools, some have been widely used to engage policy makers, due to their open source and basic structure. Yet, in the attempt of simplifying the representation of integrated systems, essential features significantly influencing the dynamics between systems may have been left aside. This study proposes an improved formulation of the Open Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS), for a better representation of energy and resource storage processes. In particular, the focus of this work is the storage losses introduction for both dams for hydropower generation and batteries for electricity storage. The modifications were applied to a case study representing key features of both a developed and developing country. The results highlight that, with low additional computational effort, a much more accurate representation of the storage technologies can be achieved. Despite the introduction of losses, renewable energy technologies tend to have a high penetration in the future energy mix thanks to storage applications that remedy their unpredictability and seasonality.

Are emission reduction policies effective under climate change conditions? A backcasting and exploratory scenario approach using the LEAP-OSeMOSYS Model

The power sector exercises huge impacts on global warming through emitted greenhouse gases [GHGs], with Australia not an exception. Over the years, the effectiveness of policies that have emerged to curtail GHGs emissions from electricity generation seem barely investigated. To address this gap, the study identifies potential energy reduction policies and climate change scenarios for the Australian power sector by applying approaches from combined backcasting and exploratory scenario. The Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) system and its integrated Open Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS) was used for optimisation analysis. Results identified cost optimisation scenarios as a least-cost generation pathway with less climate change impact, followed by renewable energy target and energy productivity scenarios. Economic analysis shows that emission reduction policy will result in added cost to the economy, while carbon tax policies will yield economic benefit in installation cost, resource savings and environmental externalities reductions by 2050. The environmental analysis reveals that emission reduction policy will increase cumulative emissions, while future temperatures may double the emissions from the base case scenario. We conclude that future low-carbon pathways lie in clean energy substitutions and innovative energy policies, while global warming raises the need to switch to clean energy technologies early.

Modelling for power generation sector in Developing Countries: Case of Egypt

In this article, the economic and environmental implications due to the projected evolution of the power sector in Egypt until 2040 are assessed and discussed. The Reference Energy System (RES) of the Egyptian power sector has been defined and implemented in the Open Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS), based on two different energy scenarios. To increase the accuracy of the analysis, the discount rate on capital investments for the energy technologies has been imposed as a time dependent exogenous variable. Moreover, the robustness of the obtained results has been tested through a sensitivity analysis on the main exogenous parameters.It is found that Combined Cycles, Wind, and Photovoltaic rooftop systems are compatible technologies to be included in the future Egypt's power generation mix. In particular, based on the abundant Egypt's renewables resources endowments, wind power technology comes first in achieving the proposed target on renewables penetration in the country's generation mix, and it might be a feasible alternative to replace a part of the natural gas share. Moreover, the significant impact of discount rate on capitals on the final results is highlighted: low values of discount rate would skew generation mix to include higher investment cost technologies and vice versa.

From the development of an open-source energy modelling tool to its application and the creation of communities of practice: The example of OSeMOSYS

In the last decades, energy modelling has supported energy planning by offering insights into the dynamics between energy access, resource use, and sustainable development. Especially in recent years, there has been an attempt to strengthen the science-policy interface and increase the involvement of society in energy planning processes. This has, both in the EU and worldwide, led to the development of open-source and transparent energy modelling practices.This paper describes the role of an open-source energy modelling tool in the energy planning process and highlights its importance for society. Specifically, it describes the existence and characteristics of the relationship between developing an open-source, freely available tool and its application, dissemination and use for policy making. Using the example of the Open Source energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS), this work focuses on practices that were established within the community and that made the framework's development and application both relevant and scientifically grounded.

Long-term optimisation model of the Tunisian power system

The electricity mix in Tunisia mainly relied on conventional energy sources for over 50 years. Recently, due to fossil fuel prices oscillations and national reserves shortage, the need arose for restructuring the energy supply system. Targeting the integration of renewable energies could be a plan for satisfying the increasing demand and the supply independence. However, several macroeconomic conditions and policies present barriers for the integration of Renewable Energy Sources (RES), despite their abundance, availability and environmental benefits.This paper presents a long-term model of Tunisia electricity system, based on OSeMOSYS (Open Source energy MOdelling SYStem), aimed at unveiling potential benefits of increasing RES in electricity production.The paper first investigates peculiarities of Tunisia electricity system, arguing the necessity to include them in the electricity system model. Then, it explains the choice of OSeMOSYS and brought modifications, including peculiar system characteristics. Finally, the model is applied to two scenarios, a Business As Usual case and a 30% RES target in electricity production case, for time horizon 2010–2030. Results demonstrate the importance of system features detailed modelling. Specifically, they show that targeting RES state-invested integration in the electricity mix may allow higher energy independence to be reached, without increasing significantly system costs.

Analyses of optimum generation scenarios for sustainable power generation in Ghana

This study examines optimum generation scenarios for Ghana from 2010 to 2040. The Open Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS), an optimisation model for long term energy planning, which is integrated in Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) tool, was applied to model the generation system. The developed model was applied to the case study of the reference scenario (OPT) which examines the least cost development of the system without any shift in policy. Three groups of policy scenario were developed based on the future possible energy policy direction in Ghana: energy emission targets, carbon taxes and transmission and distribution losses improvements. The model was then used to simulate the development of technologies in each scenario up to 2040 and the level of renewable generation examined. Finally, cost benefit analysis of the policy scenarios, as well as their greenhouse gas mitigation potential were also discussed. The results show that: suitable policies for clean power generation have an important role in CO2 mitigation in Ghana. The introduction of carbon minimisation policies will also promote diversification of the generation mix with higher penetration of renewable energy technologies, thus reducing the overall fossil fuel generation in Ghana. It further indicated that, significant greenhouse emissions savings is achieved with improvement in transmission and distribution losses.