Open Limit Order Research Articles

The dynamics of ex-ante weighted spread: an empirical analysis

We model the evolution of the ex-ante weighted spread (EWS) embedded in an open Limit Order Book (LOB) and investigate the impact of observed market-related variables on the spread. Our modeling involves decomposing the joint distribution of the weighted spread into simple and interpretable distributions. Our main results have several implications: (i) EWS features high persistence in autocorrelation; (ii) lower-level LOB remains liquid even after a high trade imbalance; (iii) lower- and higher-level LOB react to temporal spread change and trade imbalance in different ways; and (iv) both trade durations and quote durations have seasonality effects. We also show, through a simple high frequency trading exercise, that the use of the model can be economically important. Further, our model provides an estimation of market resilience.

Corporate Bond Trading on a Limit Order Book Exchange*

We investigate the trading of corporate bonds (c-bonds) by an open limit order book (LOB) mechanism. To do so, we use the case of the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange (TASE) as a laboratory, in which both stocks and c-bonds are traded by an LOB mechanism. Contrary to the OTC market in the USA, the TASE c-bond market is liquid with narrow spreads and low price dispersion. The short-term traders (STT), who are the analog of the market makers in the LOB, have small trading rents and unconcentrated activity (a low Herfindahl index). In the cross-section of bonds, the low concentration is related to low spreads, low price dispersion, and small STT rents. The non-STT [including retail investors (RIs), whose participation is significant] competes with the STT on quotation and tends to tighter quotes. RIs’ activity contributes to narrower spreads.

Bitcoin Market Microstructure

Bitcoin is traded on exchanges which use an open limit order book. This paper investigates the microstructure of various bitcoin markets with respect to liquidity and private information processing. The markets are found to be fairly liquid, providing liquidity at a stable rate throughout the 24 hours trading period. The spread itself as well as the proportion attributed to adverse selection costs are high suggesting that private information is an important aspect in the bid-ask spread.

The Dynamics of Ex-Ante Weighted Spread: An Empirical Analysis

We model the evolution of the ex-ante weighted spread (EWS) embedded in an open Limit Order Book (LOB) and investigate the impact of observed market-related variables on the spread. Our modeling involves decomposing the joint distribution of the weighted spread into simple and interpretable distributions. Our main results have several implications: (i) EWS features high persistence in autocorrelation; (ii) lower-level LOB remains liquid even after a high trade imbalance; (iii) lower- and higher-level LOB react to temporal spread change and trade imbalance in different ways; and (iv) both trade durations and quote durations have seasonality effects. We also show, through a simple high frequency trading exercise, that the use of the model can be economically important. Further, our model provides an estimation of market resilience.

The Dynamics of Ex-Ante High-Frequency Liquidity: An Empirical Analysis

The ex-ante liquidity embedded in an open Limit Order Book (LOB) and its dynamics have been one of the most important issues in financial research and evolves with the development of financial infrastructure. Using the tick-by-tick data and the reconstructed open LOB data from the Xetra trading system, we investigate the impact of trade duration, quote duration and other exogenous variables on ex-ante liquidity embedded in an open LOB. By taking into account Ultra High Frequency (UHF) data, our modeling involves decomposing the joint distribution of the ex-ante liquidity measure into simple and interpretable distributions. The decomposed factors are Activity, Direction and Size. Our results suggest that trade durations and quote durations do influence the ex-ante liquidity changes. Short-run variables, such as spread change and volume, also predict the probability of liquidity changes. The long-term variable trade imbalance is less informative.

Liquidity-adjusted Intraday Value at Risk modeling and risk management: An application to data from Deutsche Börse

Abstract This paper develops a high-frequency risk measure: the Liquidity-adjusted Intraday Value at Risk (LIVaR). Our objective is to explicitly consider the endogenous liquidity dimension associated with order size. By reconstructing the open Limit Order Book of Deutsche Borse, changes in the tick-by-tick (ex-ante) frictionless return and actual return are modeled jointly. The risk related to the ex-ante liquidity premium is then quantified. Our model can be used to identify the impact of ex-ante liquidity risk on total risk, and to provide an estimation of the VaR for the actual return at a point in time. In our sample, liquidity risk can account for up to 32% of total risk depending on order size.

Liquidity-Adjusted Intraday Value at Risk Modeling and Risk Management: An Application to Data from Deutsche BBrse

This paper develops a high-frequency risk measure, the Liquidity-adjusted Intraday Value at Risk (LIVaR). Our objective is to explicitly consider the endogenous liquidity dimension associated with order size. Taking liquidity into consideration when using intraday data is important because significant position changes over very short horizons may have large impacts on stock returns. By reconstructing the open Limit Order Book (LOB) of Deutsche Borse, the changes of tick-by-tick ex-ante frictionless return and actual return are modeled jointly using a Log-ACD-VARMA-MGARCH structure. This modeling helps to identify the dynamics of frictionless and actual returns, and to quantify the risk related to the liquidity premium. From a practical perspective, our model can be used not only to identify the impact of ex-ante liquidity risk on total risk, but also to provide an estimation of VaR for the actual return at a point in time. In particular, there will be considerable time saved in constructing the risk measure for the waiting cost because once the models have been identified and estimated, the risk measure over any time horizon can be obtained by simulation without re-sampling the data and re-estimating the model.

Measuring and Explaining the Asymmetry of Liquidity

Most measures of liquidity assume that the cost of buying and selling is symmetric. This paper analyses liquidity in an open electronic limit order book exchange without market makers, where it is possible to directly measure the impact cost of a market order to buy and to sell. There is clear evidence of liquidity asymmetry on the spot market: large market orders to sell have higher costs compared with buy orders. In an identical microstructure setting, but with no short sales constraints, single stock futures markets show little evidence of liquidity asymmetry. This evidence is consistent with the response of liquidity providers to asymmetric information vis-a-vis informed traders, and implies that short sales constraints are an important source of asymmetry in liquidity.

Designated Market Makers in Electronic Limit Order Books - A Closer Look

Many exchanges operating an electronic open limit order book employ designated market makers to improve liquidity, particularly for less liquid stocks. Previous research has shown that the existence of a market maker improves liquidity, and that the share price reacts favorably to the announcement that a firm hires a market maker. Little is known, however, about what market makers actually do. We try to fill this gap. Using a data set covering 110 German stocks we analyze the trading activity of market makers in detail. Their participation rates as a function of firm size (or, alternatively, trading volume) display a u-shaped pattern. They are highest for the smallest firms, then decreases in firm size but increases again for the largest size quintile. Market makers not only provide liquidity but also take liquidity. Other traders take liquidity supplied by market makers particularly in times of high volatility, high bid-ask spreads and high informational asymmetries. Finally, we demonstrate that market makers do, on average, not earn profits.

Is Best Really Better? Internalization of Orders in an Open Limit Order Book

We study the market quality of the Xetra BEST system operated by Deutsche Borse AG, an internalization system designed as part of an open limit order book, which guarantees a price improvement over the inside spread in the Xetra order book. We develop a structural model of this dual market environment and show that adverse selection costs of internalized trades are significantly lower than those of regular order book trades while realized spreads are significantly larger. The cost savings of the internalizer are larger than the mandatory price improvement, suggesting that internalization can be profitable for both customer and internalizer.

The impact of trading halts on liquidity and price volatility: Evidence from the Australian Stock Exchange

This study examines market behaviour around trading halts associated with information releases on the Australian Stock Exchange, which operates an open electronic limit order book. Using the Lee, Ready and Seguin (1994) pseudo-halt methodology, we find trading halts increase both volume and price volatility. Trading halts also increase bid-ask spreads and reduce market depth at the best-quotes in the immediate post-halt period. The results of this study imply that trading halts impair rather than improve market quality in markets that operate open electronic limit order books.

Management Insights

Management Insights

Imperfect Competition in Financial Markets: An Empirical Study of Island and Nasdaq

The competition between Island and Nasdaq at the beginning of the century offers a natural laboratory to study competition between and within trading platforms and its consequences for liquidity supply. Our empirical strategy takes advantage of the difference between the pricing grids used on Island and Nasdaq, as well as of the decline in the Nasdaq tick. Using the finer grid prevailing on their market, Island limit order traders undercut Nasdaq quotes, much more than they undercut one another. The drop in the Nasdaq tick size triggered a drop in Island spreads, despite the Island tick already being very thin before Nasdaq decimalization. We also estimate a structural model of liquidity supply and find that Island limit order traders earned rents before Nasdaq decimalization. Our results suggest that perfect competition cannot be taken for granted, even on transparent open limit order books with a very thin pricing grid.

The Information Content of Open Limit order Book in Price Discovery of KOSPI200 index Futures Market

This paper assesses the informational contents of open electronic limit order book in KOSPI 200 index futures market spanning sample period from December 2004 to November 2005 with a particular focus on the incremental information contained in the limit orders behind the best bid and offer. Using Vector Error Correction Method to estimate ‘Information share’ of quotes as suggested by Hasbrouck (1995), we find that the order book is significantly informative–its contribution to price discovery is approximately above 70%, while remaining is from cash price. Furthermore, we find the limit orders from step 2 to 5 is more informative than the best bid and offer in price discovery process, based on the estimation of information share. This empirical finding sharply contradicts the evidence suggested by previous literature that the best quotes contribute the most to price discovery and the contribution of order book the beyond the best bid and offer is marginally additional in cash market. Summarizing overall empirical evidence, limit order book in KOSPI 200 index futures market plays a differential role in contrast with stock markets.

Does the Open Limit Order Book Matter in Explaining Informational Volatility?

This paper evaluates the informational content of an open limit order book by studying its role in explaining long run volatility. We separate liquidity-driven (transitory) volatility from information-driven (long run) volatility using a dynamic state-space co-integration model for ask and bid quotes. We report that changes in immediacy costs precede posterior fluctuations in long run volatility even after controlling for the incoming order flow. The book is less informative for large-caps than for small-caps. Consistently with previous studies, the book beyond the best quotes adds explanatory power to the best quotes. Finally, the explanatory power of the book decreases with the time resolution of the analysis.

Does the Open Limit Order Book Matter in Explaining Informational Volatility?

Does the Open Limit Order Book Matter in Explaining Informational Volatility?

Dual Traders in Fully Anonymous Stock Markets, Iceberg Orders, and Liqudity Provision

The permission of dual trading in stock markets is highly controversial in academic as well as the practitioners9 discussions, due to the thread of front-running/piggy-backing. This article contributes to that discussion by analyzing an equity market (namely Xetra in Germany) that has unique features with regard to anonymity. The risk of front-running appears to be relatively high at Xetra, considering that it is a fully anonymous market allowing orders with hidden volume to be placed in the open limit order book. Despite those favorable conditions, the authors do not find evidence of widespread, systematic front-running/piggy-backing activity. Dual traders do not abuse their knowledge of hidden orders by their customers. Dual traders9 personal accounts provide liquidity to the market, but contrasting previous findings, the authors are not able to support the notion that dual traders provide liquidity to their own customers. <b>TOPICS:</b>Statistical methods, exchanges/markets/clearinghouses

An Empirical Study of the Indian Treasury Securities Primary Auctions

The study has attempted to empirically examine the efficiency of Govt. securities auction in Indian market. It is observed that prices of the securities under auction generally move downward between the date of announcement of auction and the date of auction. The yield, duration, issue size, outstanding stocks of the security under auction have significant impact of the price changes of auctioned securities. Introduction of an open limit order book system for Government securities market has been found to be statistically significant. Before the introduction of limit order book system, the average price change was 1.89% while after introduction of limit order book system, the same came down drastically to 0.87%.

Market for Information and Identity Disclosure in an Experimental Open Limit Order Book

This paper analyses the effects of pre‐trade transparency on market quality in an experimental open limit order book preceded by a market for information. The design of the trading game is akin to the system in use in an increasing number of financial markets. We find that the disclosure of traders’ identities reduces the incentive to acquire information, liquidity and volatility. We also show that a positive relation exists between the proportion of traders buying information and liquidity. The results are consistent with a standard model of price formation where the number of informed traders is endogenous.

Order aggressiveness and order book dynamics

In this paper, we study the determinants of order aggressiveness and traders’ order submission strategy in an open limit order book market. Applying an order classification scheme, we model the most aggressive market orders, limit orders as well as cancellations on both sides of the market employing a six-dimensional autoregressive conditional intensity model. Using order book data from the Australian Stock Exchange, we find that market depth, the queued volume, the bid-ask spread, recent volatility, as well as recent changes in both the order flow and the price play an important role in explaining the determinants of order aggressiveness. Overall, our empirical results broadly confirm theoretical predictions on limit order book trading. However, we also find evidence for behavior that can be attributed to particular liquidity and volatility effects.