Oort Cloud Research Articles

ALMA and GMRT Studies of Dust Continuum Emission and Spectral Lines Toward Oort Cloud Comet C/2022 E3 (ZTF)

Abstract The atomic and molecular compounds of cometary ices serve as valuable knowledge into the chemical and physical properties of the outer solar nebula, where comets are formed. From the cometary atmospheres, the atoms and gas-phase molecules arise mainly in three ways: (i) the outgassing from the nucleus, (ii) the photochemical process, and (iii) the sublimation of icy grains from the nucleus. In this paper, we present the radio and millimeter wavelength observation results of Oort cloud non-periodic comet C/2022 E3 (ZTF) using the Giant Metrewave Radio Telescope (GMRT) band L and the Atacama Large Millimeter/Submillimeter Array (ALMA) band 6. We do not detect continuum emissions and an emission line of atomic hydrogen (HI) at rest frequency 1420 MHz from this comet using the GMRT. Based on ALMA observations, we detect the dust continuum emission and rotational emission lines of methanol (CH3OH) from comet C/2022 E3 (ZTF). From the dust continuum emission, the activity of dust production (Afρ) of comet ZTF is 2280±50 cm. Based on LTE spectral modelling, the column density and excitation temperature of CH3OH towards C/2022 E3 (ZTF) are (4.50±0.25)×10^{14} cm^{−2} and 70±3 K. The integrated emission maps show that CH3OH was emitted from the coma region of the comet. The production rate of CH3OH towards C/2022 E3 (ZTF) is (7.32±0.64)×10^{26} molecules s^{−1}. The fractional abundance of CH3OH with respect to H2O in the coma of the comet is 1.52%. We also compare our derived abundance of CH3OH with the existence modelled value, and we see the observed and modelled values are nearly similar. We claim that CH3OH is formed via the subsequential hydrogenation of formaldehyde (H2CO) on the grain surface of comet C/2022 E3 (ZTF).

On the Early Thermal Processing of Planetesimals during and after the Giant Planet Instability

Born as ice-rich planetesimals, cometary nuclei were gravitationally scattered onto their current orbits in the Kuiper Belt and the Oort Cloud during the giant planets’ dynamical instability in the early stages of our solar system’s history. Here, we model the thermal evolution of planetesimals during and after the giant planet instability. We couple an adapted thermal evolution model to orbital trajectories provided by N-body simulations to account for the planetesimals’ orbital evolution, a parameter so far neglected by previous thermal evolution studies. Our simulations demonstrate intense thermal processing in all planetesimal populations, mainly concerning the hypervolatile ice content. Unlike previous predictions, we show that hypervolatile survival was possible in a significant number of planetesimals of the Kuiper Belt and the Oort Cloud. Planetesimals ejected into interstellar space proved to be the most processed, while planetesimals ending in the Oort Cloud were the least processed population. We show that processing differences between populations are a direct consequence of their orbital evolution patterns, and that they provide a natural explanation for the observed variability in the abundance ratios of CO on cometary populations and on the recent observations of long-distance CO-driven activity on inbound long-period comets.

How Meteor Showers Can Guide the Search for Long-period Comets

With orbital periods longer than 200 yr, most long-period comets (LPCs) remain undiscovered until they are in-bound toward perihelion. The comets that pass close to Earth’s orbit are potentially hazardous objects. Those with orbital periods up to ∼4000 yr tend to have passed close to Earth’s orbit in a previous orbit and produced a meteoroid stream dense enough to be detected at Earth as a meteor shower. In anticipation of Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), we investigate how these meteor showers can guide dedicated searches for their parent comets. Assuming search parameters informed by LSST, we calculated where the 17 known parent bodies of LPC meteor showers would have been discovered based on a cloud of synthetic comets generated from the shower properties as measured at Earth. We find that the synthetic comets predict the on-sky location of the parent comets at the time of their discovery. The parent comet’s location on average would have been 1.°51 ± 1.°19 from a line fit through the synthetic comet cloud. The difference between the heliocentric distance of the parent and mean heliocentric distance of synthetic comets on the line was 2.09 ± 1.89 au for comets with unknown absolute nuclear magnitudes and 0.96 ± 0.80 au for comets with known absolute nuclear magnitudes. We applied this method to the σ-Hydrids, the proposed meteor shower of comet Nishimura, and found that it successfully matched the pre-covery location of this comet 8 months prior to Nishimura’s discovery.

A comparative study of the blue comets C/1908 R1 (Morehouse) and C/2016 R2 (Pan-STARRS)

The long-period comet C/1908 R1 (Morehouse) is distinguished by its early spectroscopic tail photography, which uncovered notably intense emission bands of N2+ and CO+ similar to the unusual characteristics of the atypical blue comet C/2016 R2 (Pan-STARRS). To probe potential parallels with C/2016 R2 further, we revisited the historical spectroscopic plates of C/1908 R1 while leveraging the New Astrometric Reduction of Old Observations (NAROO) project's advanced sub-micrometric scanner. We first reviewed the intensity ratio method, followed by a comprehensive spectroscopic analysis of the original historical plates to determine the comet's composition. Our analysis also encompassed an evaluation of C/1908 R1's dynamic trajectory using an N-body integrator and a detailed examination of tail morphology records. Our findings suggest that C/1908 R1 experienced no significant close encounters as it crossed the inner Solar System, anchoring its origins directly in the Oort Cloud and allowing us to ascertain that this was its inaugural voyage near the Sun. We determined a N2+ CO+ ratio of $ along with a dust-poor composition, particularities it shares with C/2016 R2. Moreover, by synthesizing observations of the tail's structure over the three-month period of visibility, we uncovered a link between tail dislocation events and aurora borealis sightings on Earth. This association underscores the comet tail’s heightened sensitivity to solar wind fluctuations due to its volatile makeup. The comet C/1908 R1 (Morehouse) emerges as one of the most unaltered relics of our Solar System's formation, offering another instance of a C/2016 R2-analogous comet. This underscores the importance of preserving and reexamining historical astronomical datasets, not only for historical significance but as a critical resource for contemporary scientific advancement.

Tentative detection of cyclopropenylidene in comets

ABSTRACT We report the tentative detection of the ring molecule cyclopropenylidene (c-C$_3$H$_2$) in cometary comae. We observed three short-period comets: 73P/Schwassmann–Wachmann 3, 17P/Holmes, 103P Hartley 2, and two Oort Cloud comets: C/2007 N3 (Lulin) and C/2012 F6 (Lemmon) with the Arizona Radio Observatory Submillimeter Telescope (SMT) and the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA). We tentatively detected c-C$_3$H$_2$ in three of the comets, with molecule production rates in the range of $(0.2\!-\!3.8)\times 10^{25}$ molecules s$^{-1}$, and c-C$_3$H$_2$/H$_2$O mixing ratios of 0.01–0.19 per cent. Evidence from both the single-dish and interferometric data points to the presence of c-C$_3$H$_2$ being of a discrete transient nature and exhibiting an extended spatial distribution, indicating production from the decomposition of organic dust particles in the coma.

Nearby Supernova and Cloud Crossing Effects on the Orbits of Small Bodies in the Solar System

Supernova (SN) blasts envelop many surrounding stellar systems, transferring kinetic energy to small bodies in the systems. Geologic evidence from 60Fe points to recent nearby SN activity within the past several Myr. Here, we model the transfer of energy and resulting orbital changes from these SN blasts to the Oort Cloud, the Kuiper Belt, and Saturn’s Phoebe ring. For the Oort Cloud, an impulse approximation shows that a 50 pc SN can eject approximately half of all objects less than 1 cm while altering the trajectories of larger ones, depending on their orbital parameters. For stars closest to SNe, objects up to ∼100 m can be ejected. Turning to the explored solar system, we find that SNe closer than 50 pc may affect Saturn’s Phoebe ring and can sweep away Kuiper Belt dust. It is also possible that the passage of the solar system through a dense interstellar cloud could have a similar effect; a numerical trajectory simulation shows that the location of the dust grains and the direction of the wind (from an SN or interstellar cloud) has a significant impact on whether or not the grains will become unbound from their orbit in the Kuiper Belt. Overall, nearby SNe sweep micron-sized dust from the solar system, though whether the grains are ultimately cast toward the Sun or altogether ejected depends on various factors. Evidence of SN-modified dust grain trajectories may be observed by New Horizons, though further modeling efforts are required.

An estimate of resident time of the Oort Cloud new comets in planetary region

We describe the result of our numerical orbit simulation which traces dynamical evolution of new comets coming from the Oort Cloud. We combine two dynamical models for this purpose. The first one is semi-analytic, and it models an evolving comet cloud under galactic tide and encounters with nearby stars. The second one numerically deals with planetary perturbation in the planetary region. Although our study does not include physical effects such as fading or disintegration of comets, we found that typical dynamical resident time of the comets in the planetary region is about 108 years. We also found that the so-called planet barrier works when the initial orbital inclination of the comets is small. A numerical result concerning the temporary transition of the comets into other small body populations such as transneptunian objects or Centaurs is discussed.

The Pre-perihelion Evolution of the Activity of Comet C/2017 K2 (Pan-STARRS) during the Water Ice-line Crossover

Comets, relics from the early solar system, consist of dust and ice. The ice sublimates as comets approach the Sun, ejecting dust from their nuclei seen as activity. Different volatiles sublimate at different Sun–comet distances and eject dust of unique sizes, structures, and compositions. In this study, we present new polarimetric observations of Oort cloud comet C/2017 K2 (Pan-STARRS) in R- and I-filter domains before, during, and after its crossover of the water-ice sublimation regime at phase angles of 15.°9, 10.°5, and 20.°0, respectively. Combining multiband optical imaging data covering a wide range of heliocentric distances (∼14−2.3 au), we aim to characterize the pre-perihelion evolution of cometary activity as well as the properties of its coma dust. Two discontinuous brightening events were observed: at ∼6 au presumably associated with changes in CO-like supervolatile ice activity, and at ∼2.9 au when water ice took over. Particularly, the latter activation is accompanied by changes in coma morphology and color whose trends differ between the inner (∼103 km) and outer (∼104 km) parts of the coma. No polarimetric discontinuities on the comet were observed over the inner coma region, all epochs showing phase-angle and wavelength dependencies compatible with those of active comets observed in similar observing geometry. During this period, the underlying dust continuum overwhelmed Hα emission at around 656.3 nm, suggesting less water ice on the comet’s surface than expected. We discuss K2's coma environment by combining numerical simulations of light scattered by dust and place the observations within the context of the comet’s evolution.

An Efficient Observational Strategy for the Detection of the Oort Cloud

The Oort cloud is presumably a pristine relic of the solar system formation. Detection of the Oort cloud may provide information regarding the stellar environment in which the Sun was born and on the planetesimal population during the outer planets’ formation phase. The best suggested approach for detecting Oort cloud objects in situ, is by searching for subsecond occultations of distant stars by these objects. Following Brown & Webster, we discuss the possibility of detecting Oort cloud objects by observing near the quadrature direction. Due to the Earth’s projected velocity, the occultations are longer near the quadrature direction and are therefore easier to detect, but have lower rate. We show that, for ≲1 m size telescopes, the increased exposure time will result in about one to 3 orders of magnitude increase in the number of detectable stars that have an angular size smaller than the Fresnel scale and are therefore suitable for an occultation search. We discuss the ability of this method to detect Oort cloud objects using existing survey telescopes, and we estimate the detection rate as a function of the power-law index of the size distribution of the Oort cloud objects and their distance from the Sun. We show that occultations detected using ≈1 s integration by ≲1 m telescopes at the optimal region near the quadrature points will be marginally dominated by Oort cloud objects rather than Kuiper belt objects.

Photometry, rotation period determination and dust coma numerical study of comet C/2017 K2 (PanStarrs)

C/2017 K2 (Pan-STARRS) is an Oort cloud comet discovered in May 2017. Ground observations have revealed that this long-period comet was active at a heliocentric distance beyond 20 au. Several studies observed this object when it was far from the Sun and proposed that, at such a distance, its activity is primarily driven by the sublimation of super-volatile ices such as CO and CO2.The aim of this paper is to analyze the comet’s dust behavior when it was much closer to the Sun. A series of images were taken on different observation routines between July and August 2022 with the 0.6 m Helen Sawyer Hogg (HSH) telescope at the Complejo Astronómico El Leoncito (CASLEO), using broadband V and R filters. The objective was to conduct a morphological, photometric, and numerical analysis of this comet.Digital filters were applied to enhance contrast in the cometary images, revealing an active region embedded within an isotropic coma. Analysis of the magnitudes and dust production rate from the A(0°)fρ parameter suggests a steady-state dust behavior, consistent with findings from other authors.Moreover, thanks to the images covering a significant time span, it was possible to determine the comet’s rotation period using a periodogram analysis with the Phase Dispersion Minimization method (PDM) and to calculate the coordinates of the rotation axis, yielding a rotation period of 14.24 h with a pole situated at the ecliptic longitude and latitude of (244°,−20°).Finally, to gain deeper insights into C/2017 K2’s dust behavior, observations were fitted to a newly developed theoretical model for studying dust comas. The analysis suggests that the comet’s dust coma was principally formed by large dust particles emitted at a velocity of 180ms−1.

ASASSN-21js: A multi-year transit of a ringed disc

Aims. The early-type star ASASSN-21js started to fade in 2021, as was detected by the All Sky Automated Survey for Supernovae, undergoing a multi-year eclipse that is still underway. We interpret this event as being due to a structured disc of material transiting in front of the star. The disc is in orbit around a substellar object with the mass and luminosity of a brown dwarf or smaller. We want to determine the expected duration and ending date of the eclipse. Methods. We modelled a tilted and inclined azimuthally symmetric ring system around an unseen companion and calculated the resulting time-varying light curve as the object transited in front of the star. We made an initial estimate of the ring parameters and used these as inputs to an MCMC algorithm to determine the geometric properties of the rings with associated uncertainties. Results. The model most consistent with the light curve to date is a two-ring system at high inclination with respect to the line of sight that has a semi-major axis of 71.6 stellar radii. With an estimate of the stellar radius, the transverse velocity is around 0.7 km s−1, which if bound to the star is an orbit with a semi-major axis of around 13 000 au, placing it in the Oort cloud of the parent star. The transit is ongoing and will finish around MJD 61526 (May 1 2027). We encourage the community to continue observing this object in order to understand its properties.

The frequency of transiting planetary systems around polluted white dwarfs

ABSTRACT This paper investigates the frequency of transiting planetary systems around metal-polluted white dwarfs using high-cadence photometry from ULTRACAM and ULTRASPEC on the ground and space-based observations with TESS. Within a sample of 313 metal-polluted white dwarfs with available TESS light curves, two systems known to have irregular transits are blindly recovered by box-least-squares and Lomb–Scargle analyses, with no new detections, yielding a transit fraction of $0.8_{-0.4}^{+0.6}$ per cent. Planet detection sensitivities are determined using simulated transit injection and recovery for all light curves, producing upper limit occurrences over radii from dwarf to Kronian planets, with periods from 1 h to 27 d. The dearth of short-period, transiting planets orbiting polluted white dwarfs is consistent with engulfment during the giant phases of stellar evolution, and modestly constrains dynamical re-injection of planets to the shortest orbital periods. Based on simple predictions of transit probability, where $(R_* + R_{\rm p})/a\simeq 0.01$, the findings here are nominally consistent with a model where 100 per cent of polluted white dwarfs have circumstellar debris near the Roche limit; however, the small sample size precludes statistical confidence in this result. Single transits are also ruled out in all light curves using a search for correlated outliers, providing weak constraints on the role of Oort-like comet clouds in white dwarf pollution.

Analyzing the Elements of X-ray Emission Spectrum of C/1999 S4 (LINEAR) and 9p/ Tempel 1 Comets

The study focused on the elemental abundance of two different comets. These comets were observed at an energy range of (100-10000) eV. The X-ray emission spectrum was analyzed and the results showed that comet C/1999 S4 (LINEAR) from the Oort cloud region (long-period) and comet 9p/Tempel 1 from the Kuiper Belt region (short-period) had the highest abundances of the different elements. The ds9 program used data from NASA's Chandra analysis to show the spectra of these comets and analyze their elements. The results showed that some elements were similar in all comets, such as (Carbon (C), Oxygen (O), Neon (Ne), and Silicon (Si)). While others varied from one comet to another, such as (Magnesium (Mg) and Chlorine (Cl)) elements which appeared in the C/1999 S4 (LINEAR) comet, and (Aluminum (A) and Phosphors (P)) elements which appeared in the 9P/Tempel 1 comet. This is due to these comets' areas of presence, where the elements of comets can be classified through their areas of presence.

Properties of outer solar system pebbles during planetesimal formation from meteor observations

Observations of proto-planetary disks, as well as theoretical modeling, suggest that in the late stages of accretion leading up to the formation of planetesimals, particles grew to pebbles the size of 1-mm to tens of cm, depending on the location and ambient conditions in the disk. That is the same size range that dominates the present-day comet and primitive asteroid mass loss. Meteoroids that size cause visible meteors on Earth. Here, we hypothesize that the size distribution and the physical and chemical properties of young meteoroid streams still contain information about the conditions in the solar nebula during these late stages of accretion towards planetesimal formation. If so, they constrain where long-period (Oort Cloud) comets, Jupiter-family (Scattered Disk Kuiper Belt) comets, and primitive asteroids (Asteroid Belt) formed. From video and visual observations of 47 young meteor showers, we find that freshly ejected meteoroids from long-period comets tend to have low bulk density and are distributed with equal surface area per log-mass interval (magnitude distribution index χ ∼ 1.85), suggesting gentle accretion conditions. Jupiter-family comets, on the other hand, mostly produce meteoroids twice as dense and distributed with a steeper χ ∼ 2.15 or even χ ∼ 2.5, which implies that those pebbles grew from particles fragmenting in a collisional cascade or by catastrophic collisions, respectively. Some primitive asteroids show χ > 2.5, with most mass in small particles, indicating an even more aggressive fragmentation by processes other than mutual collisions. Both comet populations contain an admixture of compact materials that are sometimes sodium-poor, but Jupiter-family comets show a higher percentage (∼8% on average) than long-period comet showers (∼4%) and a wider range of percentages among comets. While there are exceptions in both groups, the implication is that most long-period comets formed under gentle particle growth conditions, possibly near the 30 AU edge of the Trans Neptunian Disk, while most Jupiter family comets formed closer to the Sun where pebbles reached or passed the fragmentation barrier, and primitive asteroids formed in the region where the cores of the giant planets formed. This is possible if the Scattered Disk represents all objects scattered by Neptune during its migration, while the present-day outer Oort cloud formed only during and after the time of the planet instability, well after the Sun had moved away from sibling stars.

Time-variable diffuse γ-ray foreground

ABSTRACT While the data analysis of γ-ray telescopes has now become more robust, some signals may be misinterpretations of a time-variable foreground emission from the Solar system, induced by low-energy cosmic-ray interactions with asteroids. Our goal is to provide emission templates for this time-variable diffuse γ-ray foreground by considering the populations of Main Belt Asteroids, Jovian and Neptunian Trojans, Kuiper Belt Objects, and the Oort Cloud. We model the spatial distribution of all known asteroids by performing 3D-fits to determine their density profiles and calculate their appearances by line-of-sight integrations. Because Earth and the asteroids are moving with respect to each other, we obtain diffuse emission templates varying on time-scales of days to decades. We find that the temporal variability can lead to flux enhancements that may mimic emission features unless properly taken into account. This variation is further enhanced by the Solar cycle as the cosmic-ray spectrum is attenuated by the Solar modulation potential, leading to a relative flux increase of the outer asteroids. The cumulative effect of the time-dependent emission is illustrated for the case of the ‘511 keV OSSE fountain’, and for emission features near the Galactic Centre, both being possible misinterpretations of the Solar system albedo. We recommend that γ-ray data analyses should always take into account the possibility of a time-variable foreground. Due to the ecliptic overlap with the Galactic plane, the Galactic emission is expected to be weaker by 0.1–20 per cent, depending on time (relative planetary motion), energy, and Solar cycle, which has consequences for the interpretation of dark matter annihilation cross sections, cosmic-ray spectra and amplitudes, as well as nucleosynthesis yields and related parameters.

Formation of the inner Oort cloud in the presence of an early solar binary

ABSTRACT Consistent with the notion that most Sun-like stars form in multistellar systems, this study explores the impact of a temporarily bound stellar binary companion on the early dynamical evolution of the Solar system. Using N-body simulations, we illustrate how such a companion markedly enhances the trapping of scattered bodies on inner Oort cloud-like orbits, with perihelion distances exceeding $q \gt 40$ au. We further find that the orbital geometry of the Sun-binary system plays a central role in regulating the efficiency of small-body implantation on to high-perihelion orbits, and demonstrate that this process is driven by the von Zeipel–Kozai–Lidov mechanism. Incorporating the transiency of stellar clusters and the eventual Sun-binary pair dissociation due to passing stars, we show how the binary can be stripped away by an approximately solar-mass ejector star, with only a modest impact on the generated inner Oort cloud population. Collectively, our results highlight a previously underappreciated process that could have contributed to the formation of the inner Oort cloud.

Self-gravitational dynamics within the inner Oort cloud

Self-gravitational dynamics within the inner Oort cloud

Ice chemistry modeling of active phase comets: Hale–Bopp

We present a chemical kinetics model of the solid-phase chemical evolution of a comet, beginning with a long period of cold-storage in the Oort Cloud, followed by five orbits that bring the comet close to the Sun. Current orbital parameters for Hale–Bopp are used for all orbits. The chemical model is based on an earlier treatment (Garrod 2019) that considered only the cold-storage phase, and which was based on the interstellar ice chemical kinetics model MAGICKAL. The comet is treated as 25 chemically distinct layers, whose thicknesses increase with depth; each layer has a dust component, and the chemical network includes a further 200 atomic/molecular species. The new model includes several key updates to the previous treatment: (i) Time- and depth-dependent temperature profiles based on heat transfer according to heliocentric distance; (ii) a rigorous treatment of back-diffusion (random walk) for species capable of diffusing through the thick bulk-ice layers; (iii) adoption of recent improvements in the kinetic treatment of nondiffusive chemical reaction rates in the ice and on the ice surface. Starting from an initially simple ice composition, interstellar UV photons drive a rapid chemistry in the upper micron of material, but diminished by absorption of the UV by the dust component. Galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) drive a much slower chemistry in the deeper ices over the long cold-storage period, to depths on the order of 10 m. The first solar approach drives off the upper layers of ice material via thermal desorption and/or dissociation (the model does not include a treatment for the more complex cometary outbursts), bringing closer to the surface the deeper material that previously underwent long-term processing by GCRs. Subsequent orbits are more uniform in their chemical behavior after the upper layers are lost. Loss of molecular material leads to concentration of the dust in the upper layers, with a large dust fraction extending to depths on the order of 10 cm after all orbits are complete. Substantial quantities of complex organic molecules (COMs) are formed in the upper 10 m during the cold storage phase, with some of this material released during solar approach; however, their abundances with respect to water appear too low to account for the observed gas-phase values for comet Hale–Bopp, indicating that the majority of complex molecular material observed, at least in comet Hale–Bopp, is an inheritance of primordial material.

The Multilayer Nature of Molecular Gas toward the Cygnus Region

We study the physical properties and 3D distribution of molecular clouds (MCs) toward the Cygnus region using the MWISP CO survey and Gaia DR3 data. Based on Gaussian decomposition and clustering for 13CO lines, over 70% of the fluxes are recovered. With the identification result of 13CO structures, two models are designed to measure the distances of the molecular gas in velocity crowding regions. The distances of more than 200 large 13CO structures are obtained toward the 150 deg2 region. Additionally, tens of the identified MC structures coincide well with masers and/or intense mid-IR emission. We find multiple gas layers toward the region: (1) the extensive gas structures composing the Cygnus Rift from 700 pc to 1 kpc across the whole region; (2) the ∼1.3 kpc gas layer mainly in the Cygnus X South region; and (3) the 1.5 kpc dense filament at the Cygnus X North region and many cometary clouds shaped by Cygnus OB2. We also note that the spatial distribution of young stellar object candidates is generally consistent with the molecular gas structures. The total molecular mass of the Cygnus region is estimated to be ∼2.7 × 106 M ⊙ assuming an X-factor ratio XCO=2×1020cm−2(Kkms−1)−1 . The foreground Cygnus Rift contributes ∼25% of the molecular mass in the whole region. Our work presents a new 3D view of the MCs' distribution toward the Cygnus X region, as well as the exact molecular gas mass distribution in the foreground Cygnus Rift.

Can humanity survive to a giant comet impact?

It is well known that giant long period comets originating from the Oort's cloud could be the most threatening celestial bodies. The warning time could indeed be very short, five years, and the kinetic energy could be sufficient for global and durable effects on Earth, killing all life forms on the surface. Humans might nevertheless be able to survive decades in underground shelters. Based on a model used to determine the minimum number of people to survive on another planet, a classification of long terms shelters is proposed, taking all needs into consideration and also the double redundancy principle. Accumulation shelters corresponds to shelters with lots of resources but a weak autonomy, and therefore a well-established limited lifetime around thirty years. Borderline shelters correspond to long term shelters with strong autonomous capacities but little margins and high risks of collapse due to misconceptions, underestimations and insufficient testing. Complete shelters correspond to ideal shelters with double redundancy for every system and also for the working capacity. Thanks to a high resilience, they could last decades, eventually saving humanity from extinction. The limits of the shelters are discussed, as well as uncertainties. Given the short warning time, it is impossible to test any shelter, and, as a consequence to avoid errors in the design of a complete shelter. The risk is indeed high that some problems are underestimated and a slow but unstoppable degradation of life conditions would lead to the death of the survivals, whatever the preparation and motivation of the survivals.