Onset Of Sudden Stratospheric Warming Research Articles

The Composite Response of Traveling Planetary Waves in the Middle Atmosphere Surrounding Sudden Stratospheric Warmings through an Overreflection Perspective

Abstract Traveling planetary waves surrounding sudden stratospheric warming events can result from direct propagation from below or in situ generation. They can have significant impacts on the circulation in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. Our study runs a series of ensembles initialized from the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, version 4, nudged up to 50 km by 6-hourly Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Application, version 2, reanalysis to compile a library of sudden stratospheric warming events. To our knowledge, we present the first composite or ensemble study that attempts to link direct propagation and in situ generation by evaluating the wave geometries associated with the overreflection perspective, a framework used to describe how planetary waves interact with critical and turning levels. The present study looks at the evolution of these interactions through the onset of sudden stratospheric warmings with an elevated stratopause (ES-SSWs). Robust and unique features of ES-SSWs are determined by employing an ensemble study that compares ES-SSWs with normal winters. Our study evaluates the production and impacts of westward-propagating, quasi-stationary, and eastward-propagating planetary waves surrounding ES-SSWs. Our results show that eastward-propagating planetary waves are generated within the westward stratospheric wind layer after ES-SSW onset which aids in restoring the eastward stratospheric wind. The interaction of quasi-stationary and westward-propagating waves with the westward stratospheric wind is explored from an overreflection perspective and reaffirms that westward-propagating planetary waves are produced from instabilities at the top of the westward stratospheric wind reversal.

The Ionospheric Response to the 2013 SSW Event Over the Asian‐Australian Sector

AbstractThis study investigates the response of the Asian‐Australian low‐latitude ionosphere to the 2013 Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event. The equatorial ionization anomaly structures were built from the latitudinal distribution of Total Electron Content (TEC) measured from 10 Global Positioning System receivers along 115°E in the Asian‐Australian sector. A pair of magnetometers and NASA Thermosphere‐Ionosphere‐Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics satellite airglow instrument were also employed to measure the equatorial electrojet strength (inferred E × B drift) and to unveil the changes in the neutral thermospheric O/N2 ratio during the SSW event, respectively. The relocation of the northern crests to higher latitudes during the SSW compared to the non‐SSW periods was mainly attributed to the combined effect of enhanced magnetometer‐inferred upward‐directed E × B drift and increasing solar flux. The local time shift in the thermospheric O/N2 ratio, a slight enhancement in the magnitude of the semi‐diurnal magnetometer‐inferred upward‐directed E × B drift, and changes in solar flux were primarily responsible for the hemispheric TEC enhancement during mid‐January compared to SSW onset. Additionally, the photo‐ionization effect due to increasing solar flux further enhances the TEC magnitude during the relaxing phase. On the other hand, the strong thermospheric equatorward wind played a crucial role in moving the plasma to lower latitudes during the zonal wind transition phases. A moderate geomagnetic storm of 17 January 2013 did not perturb the Asian‐Australian ionosphere. However, on 18 January 2013, the storm had a significant impact and greatly diminished the effect of the SSW.

Response of quasi-10-day waves in the MLT region to the sudden stratospheric warming in March 2020

We present an analysis of the response of quasi-10-day waves (Q10DWs) to the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event which occurred on March 23, 2020. The Q10DWs are observed in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) region by three meteor radars, which are located at middle latitudes along the 120°E meridian from Mohe (MH, 53.5°N, 122.3°E), Beijing (BJ, 40.3°N, 116.2°E), to Wuhan (WH, 30.5°N, 114.6°E). The Q10DWs reveal similar temporal and altitudinal variations during the SSW in the MLT region at the three stations. The activities of Q10DWs are also captured in the temperature measurements from the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) on the Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics satellite in the MLT region. Further analysis of the Q10DW phases indicates that the Q10DWs might be in situ generated due to mesospheric instabilities at higher latitudes around MH and then propagate southward to lower latitudes at BJ and WH. The atmospheric instabilities are not directly responsible for the excitations of Q10DWs at lower latitudes, while the observed equatorward propagation of the Q10DWs is important. Our result provides the observational evidence for latitudinal couplings in the MLT region after the SSW onset, which is achieved by southward propagating planetary waves in the MLT region.

Possible influence of sudden stratospheric warmings on the atmospheric environment in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region

Abstract. Using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts fifth-generation (ERA5) and second Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2) reanalysis and surface meteorological observation data, this study explores the possible impact of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events on air quality in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region. Major SSW events are divided into polar vortex displacement SSW and polar vortex split SSW. As the duration of split SSW events is longer and the stratospheric signal pulses propagate further downward than displacement SSWs, subseasonal variability of the atmospheric particulates in the BTH is larger during split SSWs. The air particulate concentration is light before the SSW onset due to the enhanced perturbation in the troposphere associated with strengthened planetary waves. The air particulate concentration around the SSW onset dates begins to rise due to weakening of the tropospheric disturbance as the enhanced planetary waves enter the stratosphere. In the decaying period of the SSW, the air particulate concentration decreases as the stratospheric negative northern annular mode (NAM) signal propagates downward. Specifically, in the pre-SSW period of displacement (split) SSW events, a wavenumber-1-like (wavenumber-2-like) anomaly pattern is strengthened. The East Asian winter monsoon intensifies as the East Asian trough is deepened, especially before the split SSW event onset, leading to a cleaning period. Around the SSW onset period as the tropospheric perturbation diminishes and the East Asian winter monsoon weakens, a surge of air particulate concentration is observed. After the SSW onset, due to the downward propagation of the stratospheric negative NAM signal, cold anomalies form in northeastern East Asia, especially for split SSWs, corresponding to a cleaning period in the BHT region. The local meteorological conditions during the SSWs are also discussed.

On the Relative Importance of Stratospheric and Tropospheric Drivers for the North Atlantic Jet Response to Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events

Abstract Roughly two-thirds of the observed sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events are followed by an equatorward shift of the tropospheric jet in the North Atlantic, while the other events generally show a poleward shift. It is however not resolved which drivers lead to the large inter-event variability in the surface impact. Using an intermediate complexity atmospheric model, we analyze the contribution of different factors to the downward response: polar cap geopotential height anomalies in the lower stratosphere, downstream influence from the northeastern Pacific, and local tropospheric conditions in the North Atlantic at the time of the initial response. As in reanalysis, an equatorward shift of the North Atlantic jet is found to occur for two-thirds of SSWs in the model. We find that around 40% of the variance of the tropospheric jet response after SSW events can be explained by the lower stratosphere geopotential height anomalies, while around 25% can be explained by zonal wind anomalies over the northeastern Pacific region. Local Atlantic conditions at the time of the SSW onset are also found to contribute to the surface response. To isolate the role of the stratosphere from tropospheric variability, we use model experiments where the zonal mean stratospheric winds are nudged toward climatology. When stratospheric variability is suppressed, the Pacific influence is found to be weaker. These findings shed light on the contribution of the stratosphere to the diverse downward impacts of SSW events, and may help to improve the predictability of tropospheric jet variability in the North Atlantic.

Migrating solar diurnal tidal variability during Northern and Southern Hemisphere Sudden Stratospheric Warmings

In this study, the variability of the migrating solar diurnal (DW1) tide in the mesosphere-lower thermosphere (MLT) region during Northern and Southern Hemisphere (NH & SH) Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) is investigated using Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) temperature observations and reanalysis-driven Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with thermosphere and ionosphere extension (WACCM-X) simulations. The periods examined include four major NH SSWs that occurred in 2006, 2009, 2010 and 2013 and two SH SSWs that were observed in 2002 and 2019. Our analysis shows that the DW1 tide in both observations and simulations displays a reduction of amplitude at low-latitudes after the onset of NH and SH SSWs. As WACCM-X simulations qualitatively reproduce this feature of DW1 tidal variability common to both NH and SH SSWs, they have been used to examine the possible mechanism that could explain these observations in the DW1 tide. It is known that changes in the latitudinal shear of zonal winds at low-latitudes strongly affect the seasonal variation of the DW1 tide in the MLT. We show that SSW-associated changes in the latitudinal shear in the MLT could explain the observed variability of the DW1 tide during NH and SH SSWs.Graphical

A Critical Role of the North Pacific Bomb Cyclones in the Onset of the 2021 Sudden Stratospheric Warming

AbstractThe role of North Pacific bomb cyclones in the onset of January 2021 sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) is examined by conducting a set of numerical model experiments. The control simulation, initialized 10 days before the SSW onset, successfully reproduces the SSW. As this event is preceded by the bomb cyclones in the North Pacific, their impact is tested by initializing the model without them. This sensitivity experiment shows much weaker polar‐vortex deceleration than the control simulation, resulting in no distinct SSW onset. This difference is attributable to the dampened constructive linear interference between the climatological wave and the cyclone‐related wavenumber‐one anomaly in the sensitivity experiment. It weakens the vertical propagation of wavenumber‐one wave into the stratosphere, thereby reducing wave breaking in the polar stratosphere. This result suggests that bomb cyclones should be considered for better understanding SSW and improving its predictability.

Observational Subseasonal Variability of the PM2.5 Concentration in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Area during the January 2021 Sudden Stratospheric Warming.

It is still not well understood if subseasonal variability of the local PM2.5 in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region is affected by the stratospheric state. Using PM2.5 observations and the ERA5 reanalysis, the evolution of the air quality in BTH during the January 2021 sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) is explored. The subseasonal variability of the PM2.5 concentration after the SSW onset is evidently enhanced. Stratospheric circumpolar easterly anomalies lasted for 53 days during the January–February 2021 SSW with two evident stratospheric pulses arriving at the ground. During the tropospheric wave weakening period and the intermittent period of dormant stratospheric pulses, the East Asian winter monsoon weakened, anomalous temperature inversion developed in the lower troposphere, anomalous surface southerlies prevailed, atmospheric moisture increased, and the boundary layer top height lowered, all of which favor the accumulation of pollutant particulates, leading to two periods of pollution processes in the BTH region. In the phase of strengthened East Asian winter monsoon around the very beginning of the SSW and another two periods when stratospheric pulses had reached the near surface, opposite-signed circulation patterns and meteorological conditions were observed, which helped to dilute and diffuse air pollutants in the BTH region. As a result, the air quality was excellent during the two periods when the stratospheric pulse had reached the near surface. The increased subseasonal variation of the regional pollutant particulates after the SSW onset highlights the important role of the stratosphere in the regional environment and provides implications for the environmental prediction.

Response of the Ionospheric TEC to SSW and Associated Geomagnetic Storm Over the American Low Latitudinal Sector

AbstractDuring the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event in 2013, we investigated the American low latitude around 75°W. We used 12 Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers, a pair of magnetometers, and the NASA Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite airglow instrument to unveil the total electron content (TEC), inferred vertical drift, and the changes in the neutral composition, respectively. A major SSW characterized the 2013 SSW event with the main phase (7–27 January 2013) overlapped by a minor geomagnetic storm (17 January 2013). The late morning inferred downward‐directed E X B drift did not support the varying equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) signature during the SSW onset (7 January 2013). The mid‐January (15–16 January 2013) witnessed enhancement in the varying inferred upward‐directed E X B drift at both hemispheres. On 17 January 2013, there were reductions in the varying inferred upward‐directed E X B drift at both hemispheres. Generally, the SSW effect on TEC around 15–16 January 2013 is more pronounced than the SSW onset. During the mid‐January (15–16 January 2013), the higher northern EIA crests are facilitated majorly by the SSW compared to the photo‐ionization that primarily enabled the southern crests. On 17 January 2013, the combined effect of photo‐ionization and SSW contribution was majorly responsible for the slight reduction in the northern crest. In the southern hemisphere, photo‐ionization played the lead role as the SSW, and the minor geomagnetic storm roles are secondary in enhancing the southern crest.

The January 2021 Sudden Stratospheric Warming and Its Prediction in Subseasonal to Seasonal Models

AbstractUsing reanalysis, observations, and subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecasts, the most recent sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in January 2021 and its predictability are explored. Previous work has shown that SSWs can be forecasted at relatively long lead time if favorable conditions are present. However, favorable conditions were not present for this most recent SSW, which occurred under the tropical westerly quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) and weak convection over tropical Pacific. In mid‐December 2020 and early January 2021, the Ural ridge and East Asian trough were anomalously strong, corresponding to enhanced climatological wavenumber 2. In late December 2020 and mid‐January 2021, negative (positive) height anomalies over the North Pacific (Atlantic) enhanced the climatological wavenumber 1. Alternate wave pulses by the wavenumber 1 and 2 finally led to the SSW onset and the long lifetime of the January 2021 SSW. As the composite for QBO westerlies displays a strengthened stratospheric polar vortex, the weak vortex in January 2020 was not attributed to this tropical forcing. Therefore, the predictability for the occurrence of the January 2021 SSW is not beyond two weeks with the required hit ratio >50%. Splitting of the vortex adds further difficulty to the prediction of this event. The cold anomalies over North Eurasia initiated one to two weeks before the SSW onset were likely due to the SSW precursors, which then persisted until mid‐January 2021 as the SSW signal began to propagate downward. However, the persistent cold anomalies can only be forecasted in SSW‐hit members and SSW‐hit S2S models. The observed Arctic sea ice loss is unlikely to extend the predictability of this event in S2S models.

Emergence of representative signals for sudden stratospheric warmings beyond current predictable lead times

Abstract. Major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are extreme wintertime circulation events of the Arctic stratosphere that are accompanied by a breakdown of the polar vortex and are considered an important source of predictability of tropospheric weather on subseasonal to seasonal timescales over the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes and high latitudes. However, SSWs themselves are difficult to predict, with a predictability limit of around 1 to 2 weeks. The predictability limit for determining the type of event, i.e., wave-1 or wave-2 events, is even shorter. Here we analyze the dynamics of the vortex breakdown and look for early signs of the vortex deceleration process at lead times beyond the current predictability limit of SSWs. To this end, we employ a mode decomposition analysis to study the potential vorticity (PV) equation on the 850 K isentropic surface by decomposing each term in the PV equation using the empirical orthogonal functions of the PV. The first principal component (PC) is an indicator of the strength of the polar vortex and starts to increase from around 25 d before the onset of SSWs, indicating a deceleration of the polar vortex. A budget analysis based on the mode decomposition is then used to characterize the contribution of the linear and nonlinear PV advection terms to the rate of change (tendency) of the first PC. The linear PV advection term is the main contributor to the PC tendency at 25 to 15 d before the onset of SSW events for both wave-1 and wave-2 events. The nonlinear PV advection term becomes important between 15 and 1 d before the onset of wave-2 events, while the linear PV advection term continues to be the main contributor for wave-1 events. By linking the PV advection to the PV flux, we find that the linear PV flux is important for both types of SSWs from 25 to 15 d prior to the events but with different wave-2 spatial patterns, while the nonlinear PV flux displays a wave-3 wave pattern, which finally leads to a split of the polar vortex. Early signs of SSW events arise before the 1- to 2-week prediction limit currently observed in state-of-the-art prediction systems, while signs for the type of event arise at least 1 week before the event onset.

The sudden stratospheric warming in January 2021

Using the ERA5 reanalysis, sea surface temperature and sea ice observations, and the real-time multivariate Madden–Julian index, this study explores a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in January 2021, its favorable conditions, and the near surface impact. Wavenumbers 1 and 2 alternately contributed to the total eddy heat flux from mid-December 2020 to late January 2021, and the wavenumber 2 during the onset period nearly split the stratospheric polar vortex. In mid-December 2020 and during the 2021 New Year period (1–5 January 2021), a blocking developed over the Urals, which enhanced the local ridge and the climatological wavenumber 2. Composite results confirm that the Arctic sea ice loss in autumn and La Niña favor the deepening of the high latitude North Pacific low and the increase of the Urals height ridge, which together enhance the planetary waves and hence disturb the stratospheric polar vortex. However, the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) in the tropics was dormant in mid-to-late December 2020 and early January 2021, and the well-established statistical relationship between the MJO convection over the western Pacific and the SSW is not applicable to this special case. The cold air outbreak in China during the 2021 New Year period before the January 2021 SSW onset is not explained by the SSW signal which developed in the stratosphere. In contrast, the downward-propagating signal reached the near surface in mid-February 2021, which may contribute to the cold air outbreak in US and may help to explain the extreme coldness of Texas in middle February.

Eastward‐Propagating Planetary Waves Prior to the January 2009 Sudden Stratospheric Warming

AbstractEastward‐propagating planetary waves (EPWs) were investigated prior to the boreal January 2009 major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event simulated by the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with specified dynamics. About 22 days before SSW onset, a background flow with jet maxima around the upper polar stratosphere and subtropical mesosphere developed due to the net forcing by gravity and planetary waves. The mesospheric wind structure was largely unstable and supported a wave geometry conducive to overreflection. With a zonal phase speed of ∼10 m s−1, EPWs appeared near their turning and critical layers as wavenumber‐2 perturbations in the stratosphere and mesosphere. Accompanied by upward EPW activity from the lower stratosphere, EPW growth exhibited characteristics of wave instability and overreflection.

Unusual Quasi 10‐Day Planetary Wave Activity and the Ionospheric Response During the 2019 Southern Hemisphere Sudden Stratospheric Warming

AbstractAn unusual sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event occurred in the Southern Hemisphere in September 2019. Ground‐based and satellite observations show the presence of transient eastward‐ and westward‐propagating quasi‐10 day planetary waves (Q10DWs) during the SSW. The planetary wave activity maximizes in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere region approximately 10 days after the SSW onset. Analysis indicates that the westward‐propagating Q10DW with zonal wave number s = 1 is mainly symmetric about the equator, which is contrary to theory which predicts the presence of an antisymmetric normal mode for such planetary wave. Observations from microwave limb sounder and sounding of the atmosphere using broadband emission radiometry are combined with meteor radar wind measurements from Antarctica, providing a comprehensive view of Q10DW wave activity in the Southern Hemisphere during this SSW. Analysis suggests that the Q10DWs of various wavenumbers are potentially excited from nonlinear wave‐wave interactions that also involve stationary planetary waves with s = 1 and s = 2. The Q10DWs are also found to couple the ionosphere with the neutral atmosphere. The timing of the quasi‐10‐day oscillations (Q10DOs) in the ionosphere are contemporaneous with the Q10DWs in the neutral atmosphere during a period of relatively low solar and geomagnetic activity, suggesting that the Q10DWs play a key role in driving the ionospheric Q10DOs during the Southern SSW event. This study provides observational evidence for coupling between the neutral atmosphere and ionosphere through the upward propagation of global scale planetary waves.

Influence of High Latitude Sudden Stratospheric Warming on Tropical Weather: Observations From a 205 MHz Stratosphere Troposphere Radar and Surface Meteorological Parameters

AbstractThe study illustrates the evidence of dynamical coupling between the high‐latitude sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events that occurred in three consecutive winter seasons and the concomitant changes in the wind pattern in the lower stratosphere and troposphere observed with a state‐of‐the‐art 205 MHz stratosphere‐troposphere wind profiling Radar, located at Cochin (10.03°N, 77.33°E), a tropical station in southwest peninsular India. Associated with the occurrence of SSW, the tropical region experiences a change in zonal wind speed and direction at upper tropospheric altitudes after the central day of warming. The zonal wind in the troposphere also reversed its prevailing direction. Downward propagation of zonal wind during the SSW period is noticed, which is also supported by the reanalysis data set. In the lower troposphere, vertical wind experienced sudden fluctuations with varying amplitudes soon after the peak day of the SSW event. The surface meteorological parameters in an area (8°–12°N, 74°–78°E), centered at Cochin, from ERA‐Interim are also examined. An abrupt fall in outgoing longwave radiation, followed by convection and unusual rainfall in the tropical region 5–6 days before the peak of SSW events, is a unique and exciting feature noted in the study. Detailed analysis of the past 20 years of SSW events confirmed the observational evidence of unusual rainfall over the low latitude region related with the onset of SSW. Comprehensive observational and numeric modeling studies are needed to understand the mechanism for the SSW events in high latitudes and the associated convective activity and precipitation in the low latitude region.

Planetary Wave Spectrum in the Stratosphere–Mesosphere during Sudden Stratospheric Warming 2018

The planetary wave activity in the stratosphere–mesosphere during the Arctic major Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) in February 2018 is discussed on the basis of microwave radiometer (MWR) measurements of carbon monoxide (CO) above Kharkiv, Ukraine (50.0° N, 36.3° E) and the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) measurements of CO, temperature and geopotential heights. From the MLS data, eastward and westward migrations of wave 1/wave 2 spectral components were differentiated, to which less attention was paid in previous studies. Abrupt changes in zonal wave spectra occurred with the zonal wind reversal near 10 February 2018. Eastward wave 1 and wave 2 were observed before the SSW onset and disappeared during the SSW event, when westward wave 1 became dominant. Wavelet power spectra of mesospheric CO variations showed statistically significant periods of 20–30 days using both MWR and MLS data. Although westward wave 1 in the mesosphere dominated with the onset of the SSW 2018, it developed independently of stratospheric dynamics. Since the propagation of upward planetary waves was limited in the easterly zonal flow in the stratosphere during SSW, forced planetary waves in the mid-latitude mesosphere may exist due to the instability of the zonal flow.

CMIP5/6 models project little change in the statistical characteristics of sudden stratospheric warmings in the 21st century

Using state-of-the-art models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6 (CMIP5/6), future changes of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events under a moderate emission scenario (RCP45/SSP245) and a strong emissions scenario (RCP85/SSP585) are evaluated with respect to the historical simulations. Changes in four characteristics of SSWs are examined in 54 models: the SSW frequency, the seasonal distribution, stratosphere–troposphere coupling, and the persistency of the distorted or displaced polar vortex. The composite results show that none of these four aspects will change robustly. An insignificant (though positive) change in the SSW frequency from historical simulations to RCP45/SSP245 and then to RCP85/SSP585 is consistently projected by CMIP5 and CMIP6 multimodel ensembles in most wintertime months (December–March). This increase in the SSW frequency is most pronounced in mid- (late-) winter in CMIP6 (CMIP5). No shift in the seasonality of SSWs is simulated especially in the CMIP6 future scenarios. Both the reanalysis and CMIP5/6 historical simulations exhibit strong stratosphere–troposphere coupling during SSWs, and the coupling strength is nearly unchanged in the future scenario simulations. The near surface responds immediately after the onset of SSWs in both historical and future scenarios experiments, denoted by the deep downward propagation of zonal-mean easterly anomalies from the stratosphere to the troposphere. On average, the composite circumpolar easterly winds persist for 8 d in the reanalysis and CMIP5/6 historical experiments, which are projected to remain unchanged in both the moderate and strong emissions scenarios, implying the lifecycle of SSWs will not change.

Northern Hemisphere Sudden Stratospheric Warming and Its Downward Impact in Four Chinese CMIP6 Models

Using the World Meteorological Organization definition and a threshold-based classification technique, simulations of vortex displacement and split sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are evaluated for four Chinese models (BCC-CSM2- MR, FGOALS-f3-L, FGOALS-g3, and NESM3) from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) with the Japanese 55-year reanalysis (JRA-55) as a baseline. Compared with six or seven SSWs in a decade in JRA-55, three models underestimate the SSW frequency by ~50%, while NESM3 doubles the SSW frequency. SSWs mainly appear in midwinter in JRA-55, but one-month climate drift is simulated in the models. The composite of splits is stronger than displacements in both the reanalysis and most models due to the longer pulse of positive eddy heat flux before onset of split SSWs. A wavenumber-1-like temperature anomaly pattern (cold Eurasia, warm North America) before onset of displacement SSWs is simulated, but cold anomalies are mainly confined to North America after displacement SSWs. Although the lower tropospheric temperature also displays a wavenumber-1-like pattern before split SSWs, most parts of Eurasia and North America are covered by cold anomalies after split SSWs in JRA-55. The models have different degrees of fidelity for the temperature anomaly pattern before split SSWs, but the wavenumber-2-like temperature anomaly pattern is well simulated after split SSWs. The center of the negative height anomalies in the Pacific sector before SSWs is sensitive to the SSW type in both JRA-55 and the models. A negative North Atlantic Oscillation is simulated after both types of SSWs in the models, although it is only observed for split SSWs.

Quasi‐10‐Day Wave and Semidiurnal Tide Nonlinear Interactions During the Southern Hemispheric SSW 2019 Observed in the Northern Hemispheric Mesosphere

AbstractMesospheric winds from three longitudinal sectors at 65°N and 54°N latitude are combined to diagnose the zonal wave numbers (m) of spectral wave signatures during the Southern Hemisphere sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) 2019. Diagnosed are quasi‐10‐ and 6‐day planetary waves (Q10DW and Q6DW, m = 1), solar semidiurnal tides with m = 1, 2, 3 (SW1, SW2, and SW3), lunar semidiurnal tide, and the upper and lower sidebands (USB and LSB, m = 1 and 3) of Q10DW‐SW2 nonlinear interactions. We further present 7‐year composite analyses to distinguish SSW effects from climatological features. Before (after) the SSW onset, LSB (USB) enhances, accompanied by the enhancing (fading) Q10DW, and a weakening of climatological SW2 maximum. These behaviors are explained in terms of Manley‐Rowe relation, that is, the energy goes first from SW2 to Q10DW and LSB, and then from SW2 and Q10DW to USB. Our results illustrate that the interactions can explain most wind variabilities associated with the SSW.

The role of North Atlantic–European weather regimes in the surface impact of sudden stratospheric warming events

Abstract. Sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events can significantly impact tropospheric weather for a period of several weeks, in particular in the North Atlantic–European (NAE) region. While the stratospheric forcing often projects onto the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the tropospheric response to SSW events, if any, is highly variable, and what determines the existence, location, timing, and strength of the downward impact remains an open question. We here explore how the variable tropospheric response to SSW events in the NAE region can be characterized in terms of a refined set of seven weather regimes and if the tropospheric flow in the North Atlantic region around the onset of SSW events is an indicator of the subsequent downward impact. The weather regime analysis reveals the Greenland blocking (GL) and Atlantic trough (AT) regimes as the most frequent large-scale patterns in the weeks following an SSW. While the GL regime is dominated by high pressure over Greenland, AT is dominated by a southeastward-shifted storm track in the North Atlantic. The flow evolution associated with GL and the associated cold conditions over Europe in the weeks following an SSW occur most frequently if a blocking situation over western Europe and the North Sea (European blocking) prevailed around the SSW onset. In contrast, an AT regime associated with mild conditions over Europe is more likely following the SSW event if GL occurs already around SSW onset. For the remaining tropospheric flow regimes during SSW onset we cannot identify a dominant flow evolution. Although it remains unclear what causes these relationships, the results suggest that specific tropospheric states in the days around the onset of the SSW are an indicator of the subsequent tropospheric flow evolution in the aftermath of an SSW, which could provide crucial guidance for subseasonal prediction.