Onset Of El Research Articles

Global and regional climate in 2023

Abstract2023 was the warmest year on record with a global mean temperature of 1.45 ± 0.12 degC above pre‐industrial levels, surpassing the previous record (from 2016) by 0.17 degC. The onset of El Niño in early July was accompanied by record‐breaking land and sea‐surface temperatures, with June to September all exceeding previous monthly temperature records, and July and August being the hottest months on record. Sea‐surface temperatures have attained record highs for all months since March 2023 and Antarctic sea ice reached record lows throughout the year.

Amazon severe drought in 2023 triggered surface water loss

Abstract The Amazon underwent a severe austral springtime drought attributed to the onset of El Niño in 2023 and the warmer North Atlantic, Indian, and North Pacific Oceans. The Amazon rivers, lakes, small streams, wetlands, and reservoirs quickly lowered their water level below historical records due to decreased rainfall and warmth in the region. Based on satellite imagery, this study presents the first estimate of the water loss extent in the 4.2 million km2 of the Brazilian Amazon biome (∼62% of the Amazon total biome) in 2023. We estimated the loss of 3.3 million hectares of surface water relative to 2022, with an overall accuracy of 92%. The surface water losses were concentrated in the states of Amazonas (59.4%) and Pará (25.5), adding up to 2.8 million hectares. The warmer and drier climate in the region affected the main rivers in the Amazon. Among them, the Solimões, Negro, Purus, Acre, and Branco suffered extreme drops in their levels in some regions, resulting in a high negative impact on the aquatic biodiversity, yet estimated only in local areas. A total of 1.14 million hectares of surface water loss (i.e. 35%) was detected within protected areas territories, affecting extractivist, indegenous, African-Brazilian, and fishing and traditional communities. Proximity analysis revealed that 75% of the 2023 surface water loss was within 25 km of small towns, 48% and 65.8% at 50 km from indigenous villages and urban areas, respectively. Our results reinforce people’s vulnerability to climate change, anticipating a plausible adverse impact scenario in the Amazon region and urging solutions to adaptation and mitigation. Therefore, an integrated monitoring system based on climate and water dynamics from satellite and ground stations is necessary to improve understanding of the problem for timing response of climatic change negative impacts.

The Influence of Anomalous Biomass Emissions on ENSO in CESM2

Abstract The influence of biomass burning (BB) aerosols arising from wildfires and agricultural fires on the transient coupled evolution of ENSO is explored in CESM2. For both El Niño and La Niña, two 20-member ensembles are generated from initial states that are predisposed to evolve into ENSO events. For each ENSO phase, one ensemble is forced with the observed BB emissions during satellite-era ENSO events while the other is forced with a climatological annual cycle, with the responses to anomalous BB emissions estimated from inter-ensemble differences. It is found that the regional responses to anomalous BB emissions occur mainly during boreal fall, which is also the time of the climatological seasonal maximum in emissions. Transient responses are identified in precipitation, clouds, and radiation in both the tropics and extratropics. At the onset of El Niño, these include an increase precipitation in the northern branch of the ITCZ and an enhancement of cloud albedo and amount across the Maritime Continent and eastern subtropical Pacific Ocean. Additional responses are identified through the course of El Niño and successive La Niña events, the net effect of which is to strengthen SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific Ocean during El Niño and warm the tropical Pacific Ocean during La Niña. These responses improve simulation of ENSO power, diversity, and asymmetry in CESM2.

Ocean Density Currents Induced by MJO Precipitation: A Key Player in Warm Pool Eastward Extension During Onset of El Niño

AbstractEnhanced warm pool eastward extension (WPEE) over the western‐central Pacific prior to the onset of El Niño has been observed following Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) precipitation events. However, the mechanism driving the WPEE after the MJO precipitation remains unclear. This study investigates how MJO precipitation affects WPEE by analyzing the zonal momentum budget of two coupled atmosphere‐ocean model simulations with and without freshwater from Kerns and Chen (2021, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2021.101892). It is found that the zonal pressure gradient (ZPG) force created by decreasing salinity and density from MJO precipitation is a key driving force of the WPEE during the onset of El Niño in 2018. The ZPG forces eastward density currents, transporting warmer and fresher waters against persistent easterly winds. Eastward density currents can persist for up to 30 days post‐MJO precipitation. This new mechanism works in concert with two other well‐known MJO‐induced processes in the upper ocean: (a) deepening of thermocline by oceanic Kelvin waves excited by the MJO's westerly winds, and (b) increased SST due to the barrier layer formation. The cumulative effects of these interactive processes during consecutive MJO events reduce the Pacific basin‐scale east‐west temperature gradient, enhancing the WPEE. These processes can contribute to flattening the east‐west thermocline, decreasing in upwelling in the central Pacific, and warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific.

The variability of particulate organic carbon in the northern South China Sea during the 2009–2010 El Niño

The influences of El Niño on the changes of sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll have been well studied, but its impact on changes of particulate organic carbon (POC) remains unclear. In this study, we analyzed the time series of POC and found that from January 2003 to December 2011, the spatially-averaged POC increased at a rate of 0.24 mg/m3 per year. However, during the 2009–2010 El Niño, the spatially-averaged POC increased at a rate of 1.78 mg/m3 per month. This indicated that the increase of POC during 2009–2010 may be related to El Niño. To investigate the relationship between POC and El Niño, we introduced the phase shift time between the POC and the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) to characterize the response of POC to El Niño, and calculated the correlation between the time series of the MEI and POC anomalies during El Niño to determine the phase shift time. The results of cross-correlation analysis indicated that changes of POC were delayed from the onset of El Niño by 4 months. Furthermore, a detailed analysis was presented based on a range of in situ observations and satellite-derived datasets available during the 2009–2010 El Niño. The correlation coefficients between POC and chlorophyll, as well as between POC and SST, are 0.9263 and −0.8315, respectively, and the constructed model indicated that chlorophyll and SST had a significant impact on POC. The spatial distribution of POC anomaly maximum occurred in the spring of 2010, because in the winter of 2009, the Rossby-type anomalies were reflected as upwelling Kelvin wave. However, the vertical POC anomaly maximum occurred in the spring of 2011, because the 2009–2010 El Niño experienced a fast phase transition from warm El Niño to cold La Niña, which was associated with oceanic upwelling.

Evaluation of the real-time El Niño forecasts by the climate network approach between 2011 and present

El Niño episodes are part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is the strongest driver of interannual climate variability, and can trigger extreme weather events and disasters in various parts of the globe. Previously we have described a network approach that allows to forecast El Niño events about 1 year ahead. Here we evaluate the real-time forecasts of this approach between 2011 and 2022. We find that the approach correctly predicted (in 2013 and 2017) the onset of both El Niño periods (2014-2016 and 2018-2019) and generated only 1 false alarm in 2019. In June 2022, the approach correctly forecasted the onset of an El Niño event in 2023. For determining the p-value of the 12 real-time forecasts, we consider 2 null hypotheses: (a) random guessing where we assume that El Niño onsets occur randomly, and (b) correlated guessing where we assume that in the year an El Niño ends, no new El Niño will start. We find pa≅0.005\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$p_a\\cong 0.005$$\\end{document} and pb≅0.015\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$p_b\\cong 0.015$$\\end{document}, this way rejecting both the null hypotheses that the same quality of the forecast can be obtained by chance. We also discuss how the network algorithm can be further improved by systematically reducing the number of false alarms. For 2024, the method indicates the absence of a new El Niño event.

A Composite Tool for Forecasting El Niño: The Case of the 2023–2024 Event

Remotely sensed data play a crucial role in monitoring the El Niño/La Niña Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is an oceanic-atmospheric phenomenon occurring quasi-periodically with several impacts worldwide, such as specific biological and global climate responses. Since 1980, Earth has witnessed three strong ENSO events (1982–1983, 1997–1998, 2015–2016). In September 2022, La Niña entered its third year and was unlikely to continue through 2024. Instead, since 2022, forecasts have pointed to a transition from La Niña to a Neutral phase in the summer or late 2023. The onset of El Niño occurred around April 2023, and it is anticipated by sophisticated models to be a strong event through the Northern Hemisphere winter (December 2023–February 2024). The aim of this study is to demonstrate the ability of the combination of two new methods to improve the accuracy of the above claim because El Niño apart from climate anomalies, significantly impacts Earth’s ecosystems and human societies, regulating the spread of diseases by insects (e.g., malaria and dengue fever), and influencing nutrients, phytoplankton biomass, and primary productivity. This is done by exploring first the previous major El Niño events in the period January 1876–July 2023. Our calculations show that the ongoing 2023–2024 El Niño will not be the strongest.

Evaluating the Performance of the North Pacific Victoria Mode as an ENSO Predictor Based on Multimodel Ensemble Hindcasts

Abstract The Victoria mode (VM), similar to the Pacific meridional mode (PMM), is forced by North Pacific Oscillation atmospheric variability. Both the boreal spring VM and PMM can trigger the onset of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in the following winter. Previous studies have examined the precursor relationship between the PMM and ENSO based on a subset of models drawn from the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) system. They suggested that the PMM can act as a precursor to El Niño events, whereas it fails to predict La Niña events. Utilizing the hindcasts of these models from NMME, this study further investigates the role of the VM as an ENSO predictor to examine the real usefulness of the VM for ENSO prediction. When compared with the PMM, the VM can predict both El Niño and La Niña events with some skill, showing that the VM seems to be a more reliable predictor of ENSO. We found that the unique role of the VM in ENSO prediction originates from the symmetric impact of the VM on ENSO events. The VM, as a basin-scale sea surface temperature (SST) pattern, combines the role of the SST over the subtropical northeastern Pacific that is similar to the PMM in initializing El Niño events with that of the SST over the western North Pacific that is different from PMM in initializing La Niña events, resulting in the symmetric effect of the VM on ENSO prediction. Thus, it is useful to consider VM variability as a reference for ENSO prediction. Significance Statement We aim to investigate whether the robust relationship between the boreal spring Victoria mode (VM) and the following winter ENSO in observations and climate models has any real predictive use, thus bridging the gap between theory and practical application. Our analyses based mainly on model hindcast datasets examine the forecasting skill of the VM for El Niño and La Niña events. We also reveal the symmetric impact of VM on ENSO through the analysis of observations, which explains the VM’s skill in predicting both El Niño and La Niña events. This study deepens our understanding of the effect of North Pacific SST variability on ENSO.

MJO-Induced Warm Pool Eastward Extension Prior to the Onset of El Niño: Observations from 1998 to 2019

Abstract The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are the two most important tropical phenomena that affect global weather and climate on intraseasonal and interannual time scales. Although they occur on different time scales, the MJO-induced sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the equatorial Pacific have spatial scales similar to SST anomalies prior to El Niño. This study aims to address the question of whether the MJO plays an important role in the warm pool eastward extension (WPEE) leading up to El Niño. We use over 20 years of satellite observations, including optimum interpolated SST, TRMM-GPM precipitation, and the cross-calibrated multiplatform (CCMP) surface winds from 1998 to 2019, to quantify the spatial structure and duration of the MJO-induced warm SST anomalies over the equatorial Pacific (10°S–10°N, 130°E–180°). The intensity of the MJO is measured by the total rain volume and average surface westerly wind speed throughout its convectively active phase. Results show that 1) 61% of the 98 MJO events induced a WPEE over 1000–3000 km along the equator, which can last beyond 15–30 days after the MJO precipitation ended; 2) the MJO events prior to El Niño are generally stronger and produce significant WPEE far beyond its annual cycle and increasing SST warming in the Niño-3.4 region; 3) consecutive MJO events can produce much stronger WPEE prior to El Niño, which are observed in all El Niño events from 1998 to 2019; and 4) more frequent and stronger MJO-induced WPEE occurs in March–May than other seasons. These results can help better understand the MJO–ENSO interaction and, ultimately, improve the prediction of El Niño onset.

Explained predictions of strong eastern Pacific El Niño events using deep learning

Global and regional impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are sensitive to the details of the pattern of anomalous ocean warming and cooling, such as the contrasts between the eastern and central Pacific. However, skillful prediction of such ENSO diversity remains a challenge even a few months in advance. Here, we present an experimental forecast with a deep learning model (IGP-UHM AI model v1.0) for the E (eastern Pacific) and C (central Pacific) ENSO diversity indices, specialized on the onset of strong eastern Pacific El Niño events by including a classification output. We find that higher ENSO nonlinearity is associated with better skill, with potential implications for ENSO predictability in a warming climate. When initialized in May 2023, our model predicts the persistence of El Niño conditions in the eastern Pacific into 2024, but with decreasing strength, similar to 2015–2016 but much weaker than 1997–1998. In contrast to the more typical El Niño development in 1997 and 2015, in addition to the ongoing eastern Pacific warming, an eXplainable Artificial Intelligence analysis for 2023 identifies weak warm surface, increased sea level and westerly wind anomalies in the western Pacific as precursors, countered by warm surface and southerly wind anomalies in the northern Atlantic.

The Pacific Meridional Mode Influences ENSO by Inducing Springtime Near-Equatorial TCs in the Western North Pacific

Abstract Previous research has shown that tropical cyclones in the near-equatorial western North Pacific (NE-WNP TCs) in boreal spring are associated with the onset of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, the cause of these TCs is unclear. Here, we find that the interannual activity of the springtime NE-WNP TCs is insensitive to the simultaneous ENSO intensity but is closely related to the springtime Pacific meridional mode (PMM). The lead–lag correlation between PMM and NE-WNP TCs is high from January to April, and the evolution of the SST anomaly associated with the NE-WNP TCs strongly manifests the seasonal footprint of the PMM. Analysis using AGCM experiments confirms that the positive PMM tends to reduce the vertical shear of zonal wind and sea level pressure and to increase vertical velocity in the middle atmosphere and surface humidity in the WNP. All of these conditions are favorable for NE-WNP TC genesis. We conducted CGCM experiments to validate that the NE-WNP TCs significantly influence ENSO development. A statistical regression model with respect to the impact of PMM on NE-WNP TCs and further on ENSO intensity was also conducted. The results imply that modulating the springtime NE-WNP TCs is another effective way in which the PMM influences ENSO. Significance Statement Some studies have found that springtime near-equatorial western North Pacific (NE-WNP) tropical cyclones (TCs) heavily impact ENSO development. Using observations and AGCM experiments, we showed that the genesis of these TCs is closely associated with the Pacific meridional mode (PMM), presumably because the PMM provides favorable conditions for TC genesis. We further showed that including the PMM-induced NE-WNP TCs in a CGCM leads to an El Niño–like response. The linkage between the PMM and NE-WNP TCs not only supplements the existing theories about tropical–subtropical interactions but also provides a new way to improve ENSO simulation and prediction.

Revisiting the effect of increasing horizontal resolution on the evolution of El Niño in a coupled model

The ENSO (El Niño southern oscillation) in the tropical Pacific plays a crucial role in regulating the Indian summer monsoon. Many mechanisms have been proposed to explain the positive and negative feedback associated with the ENSO through air-sea interaction in the tropical Pacific. Historical run data at varying oceanic and atmospheric resolutions from the MPI-ESM model is analyzed and compared with observations to determine the possible reasons for the much earlier onset and delayed withdrawal of ENSO in the coupled model. Increasing the resolution of the oceanic and atmospheric components of the coupled model helps in well-resolving the annual cycle of sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific. There is a significant improvement in the early onset and late withdrawal of El Niño in the coupled model with increasing horizontal resolution of the model components. The weak subsurface propagation along the 20 °C isotherm in the equatorial Pacific improves on increasing the horizontal resolution of the coupled model. Similar to observations, there is a clear eastward extension of convection, 20° east of the dateline, in the equatorial tropical Pacific in the coupled model during ENSO years. Increasing the resolution of the oceanic and atmospheric components of the coupled model improves the simulation of convective activity over the western Pacific along with the improved magnitude of anomalous zonal wind strength during El Niño years. However, the presentation of convective activity over the equatorial Pacific deteriorated on increasing atmospheric resolution further to T255 due to the enhanced value of the interannual amplitude of intraseasonal zonal wind around the international dateline. Also, the coupled model does not capture the accurate eastward propagation of the Madden Julian Oscillation envelope over the western Pacific. While higher resolutions showed improvement in the representation of El Niño events in terms of their number and duration, challenges persisted in accurately capturing the frequency of these events and their related triggering mechanisms. Understanding the intricate interplay of factors influencing the evolution of El Niño requires further research and progress in modeling strategies.

Pacific Meridional Mode Does Not Induce Strong Positive SST Anomalies in the Central Equatorial Pacific

Abstract The positive phase of the Pacific meridional mode (PMM) is closely related to the onset of El Niño. Previous studies have indicated that positive sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the central equatorial Pacific (CEP) during the spring and summer of positive PMM years primarily originate from the northeastern tropical Pacific (NETP) via positive wind–evaporation–SST feedback. We review the evolution of PMM and find weak evidence to support such a linkage. Coupled model experiments show that the positive PMM-regressed SSTAs in the NETP only account for ∼24% of those in the CEP from winter to spring, illustrating the principle that correlation does not necessarily mean causality. The strongest positive PMM SSTAs in the NETP and CEP increase El Niño intensity by 1.07°C, whereas that in the NETP alone increase El Niño intensity by 0.69°C. When the composite SSTAs in the NETP during positive PMM years are used, however, the El Niño intensity is increased merely by 0.17°C. The change in the subsurface temperature in the equatorial Pacific is curtailed for the NETP SSTAs to trigger El Niño, while the wind–evaporation–SST feedback plays a less important role. Our results indicate that the impact of PMM on El Niño might be overestimated by ∼55%. Moreover, a comprehensive understanding about the role of the tropical North Pacific on El Niño can be obtained only when the impact from the western North Pacific is considered.

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects on local weather, arboviral diseases, and dynamics of managed and unmanaged populations of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) in Puerto Rico.

We investigated the effects of interannual El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on local weather, Aedes aegypti populations, and combined cases of dengue (DENV), chikungunya (CHIKV), and Zika (ZIKV) viruses in 2 communities with mass mosquito trapping and 2 communities without mosquito control in southern Puerto Rico (2013-2019). Gravid adult Ae. aegypti populations were monitored weekly using Autocidal Gravid Ovitraps (AGO traps). Managing Ae. aegypti populations was done using 3 AGO traps per home in most homes. There were drought conditions in 2014-2015 concurrent with the emergence of a strong El Niño (2014-2016), wetter conditions during La Niña (2016-2018), a major hurricane (2017), and a weaker El Niño (2018-2019). The main factor explaining differences in Ae. aegypti abundance across sites was mass trapping. Populations of Ae. aegypti reached maximum seasonal values during the wetter and warmer months of the year when arbovirus epidemics occurred. El Niño was significantly associated with severe droughts that did not impact the populations of Ae. aegypti. Arbovirus cases at the municipality level were positively correlated with lagged values (5-12 mo.) of the Oceanic El Niño Index (ONI), droughts, and abundance of Ae. aegypti. The onset of strong El Niño conditions in Puerto Rico may be useful as an early warning signal for arboviral epidemics in areas where the abundance of Ae. aegypti exceeds the mosquito density threshold value.

A Novel Mechanism for Extreme El Niño Events: Interactions between Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific and Sea Surface Warming in the Eastern Tropical Pacific

Abstract This study presents a novel mechanism for the generation of extreme El Niño events by analyzing interactions between tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific (WNP) in spring [March–May (MAM)] and summer [June–August (JJA)] and sea surface warming in the eastern tropical Pacific. It is suggested that anomalously strong TCs in the WNP in MAM and JJA are essential for the formation of extreme El Niño events. MAM TCs excite considerable westerly wind bursts (WWBs) and facilitate the generation of El Niño events in late spring. The sea surface temperature (SST) in the central-eastern tropical Pacific increases prominently during the following summer, which is due to the warm water carried by downwelling Kelvin waves induced by the anomalous westerlies in the western tropical Pacific associated with the WNP TCs, as well as the lessening cold water upwelling resulting from the deepening thermocline in the eastern tropical Pacific. The developing El Niño in turn contributes to the TC activities over the southeastern quadrant of the WNP in summer, characterized by a stronger intensity, higher frequency, and longer duration. The resulting JJA TC-induced westerlies could further enhance the eastern tropical Pacific warm SST anomalies, and thus an extreme El Niño event tends to appear in the following autumn and winter. These physical processes are verified by several sets of atmosphere–ocean coupled model experiments. Significance Statement Tropical cyclone activity is one of the most destructive phenomena in the world. Extreme El Niño events can also cause devastating climate disasters. Understanding the relationship between these two events can help with disaster forecasting and prevention. This study finds that TC activity in the western North Pacific contributes to the appearance of extreme El Niño events. Abnormally active TC activity in spring can cause strong near-equatorial westerly wind anomalies, eastward transport of warm water from the western tropical Pacific, and a deepening ocean thermocline in the east, resulting in the earlier onset of El Niño events. Influenced by the El Niño event, the TC activity in summer is strengthened, which in turn continues to promote the surface warming of the central-eastern tropical Pacific, eventually resulting in extreme event occurrence.

Recent progress in understanding the interaction between ENSO and the East Asian winter monsoon: A review

This paper reviews recent advances in understanding the interaction between the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The achievements are summarized into two aspects: 1) the impacts of ENSO on the EAWM, and 2) effects of the EAWM on ENSO. For the first aspect, the results show that: the current climate model simulations of ENSO impacts on the EAWM have a common weaker bias than in the observations; The influence of central Pacific type ENSO on the EAWM is generally weaker than that of the eastern Pacific type ENSO; The precipitation anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean tend to contribute to the intra-seasonal transition of ENSO teleconnection over East Asia; The ENSO-EAWM relationship is unstable and subject to non-linear modulation by the state of oceans and extratropical atmospheric phenomena, which include the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation. Regarding the second aspect, studies have shown that the “pure” EAWM (denoted as EAWMres), which is independent of the ENSO signal, can lead to significant variations in the tropical convection over the western Pacific, the local Hadley circulation over East Asia, and the Walker circulation over the equatorial latitudes; The CMIP6 models can preproduce the above EAWMres effects well, although with some weaker bias. The changes in tropical convection and extratropical zonal flow associated with the EAWMres tend to have a significant modulating effect on the ENSO atmospheric teleconnection over North America. A strong EAWM and a strong Australian summer monsoon coherently provide favorable conditions for the onset of El Niño.

A Strong 2023/24 El Niño is Staged by Tropical Pacific Ocean Heat Content Buildup

The upper ocean heat content in the equatorial Pacific usually serves as a primary precursor for an upcoming El Niño, while strong atmospheric perturbations such as westerly wind burst and easterly wind surge sometimes play a decisive role in determining the final intensity of the event. The tropical Pacific Ocean has just experienced a rare 3-year La Niña, which accumulated a huge amount of warm water in the western basin by the winter of 2022 with an intensity much stronger than those preceding the onset of strong El Niños in history. Using a state-of-the-art climate prediction system, here, we show that the restored warm water is sufficient for boosting a strong El Niño toward the end of 2023 and that an even stronger event could take place if a few sizable westerly wind bursts would occur in spring and early summer. This prediction is not sensitive to initial errors within the tropical Pacific but may be subject to some uncertainties brought about by influences from elsewhere.

The Spatio-Temporal Onset Characteristics of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall and Their Relationship with Climate Indices

Regional variations of monsoon onset dates across India were analyzed for 67 years (1951–2017) under different modes of climate variations, i.e., El Niño, La Niña, and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), along with flood and drought years using the objective method and statistical techniques. Monsoon onset analysis revealed that the northern, northeastern, and southern parts were highly susceptible to the early onset of La Niña, and the northern and northern northwest parts were highly susceptible to the early onset of El Niño. The onset dates were early (late) in the sub-regions of the central, southern, and northeastern (northern, northwestern, and western) parts of India during flood (drought) years. Further, onset dates in flood years occurred earlier than those in La Niña years, and onset dates in drought years were later than those in El Niño years. The onset occurrence probability and influence of the synoptic events are discussed. This research could help in understanding the onset of monsoon and its predictability for societal applications.

Role of low-frequency wind variability in inducing WWBs during the onset of super El Niños

In this study, the effect of multiple timescale wind fields on the westerly wind burst (WWB) was investigated during the onset of super (1982, 1997, and 2015) and regular El Niño events. The results revealed that extreme WWBs during the onset of the super El Niño group were attributed to low-frequency westerly (≥ 90 days, LFW), medium-frequency westerly (20–90 days, MFW, or intraseasonal) and high-frequency westerly (≤ 20 days, HFW) components, accounting for approximately 56, 22 and 22%, respectively. Thus, the extreme WWBs during the onset of super El Niños were primarily contributed by LFWs. By contrast, the WWBs during the onset of regular El Niños were determined primarily by MFWs (37%) and HFWs (35%), whereas the LFW contribution is relatively small (28%). Further analysis indicated that LFWs during the onset of the super El Niños were primarily a response to a positive SST anomaly in the tropical to eastern North Pacific resembling the Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM), which had persisted during the preceding 9–12 months in the extratropical eastern North Pacific. A significant lagged correlation between the tropical and extratropical North Pacific SST was identified, and their correlation has become stronger since the late 1980s. MFWs during the onset of the super El Niños were primarily associated with the Madden–Julian Oscillation.

Extension and application of an observation‐based local climate index aimed to anticipate the impact of El Niño–Southern Oscillation events on Colombia

AbstractThe Tumaco multivariate index (TMI) is a multidecadal monthly index constructed with unique time series of sea surface temperature, surface air temperature and rain measured at Tumaco bay, in the southern Pacific coast of Colombia, and available since 1961. In this work, this index is re‐evaluated after the addition of in situ sea level data, and its properties for different standardization periods are compared against oceanic El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and other derived indices. In particular, we propose a modified TMI, hereinafter referred as TMI4, whose potential to identify the expected sign and the amount of future variations of rain induced by ENSO events in Colombia is analysed for selected extreme episodes. Results indicate that after the inclusion of sea level data, TMI4 can anticipate the development of El Niño events before the ENSO 3 and some other sea surface temperature‐based regional indices, although its predictability depends on the ENSO type (canonical or Modoki). The explanation is that sea level includes new information into TMI4 on the onset of El Niño events. In particular, the signal of intraseasonal sea level anomalies carried by downwelling Kelvin waves is detected at Tumaco tide‐gauge. Moreover, the analysis of the differences, both in magnitude and spatial distribution, of rainfall anomalies induced by positive (El Niño) and negative (La Niña) ENSO events characterized by TMI4 are regionally presented. As a result, we find that TMI4 is especially suited for extensive northern and western areas of mainland Colombia. For completeness, in the appendix we briefly introduce the semi‐automated implementation of TMI4, including a visual interface, which is currently being tested by personnel within the operational oceanography area at Centro de Investigaciones Oceanográficas e Hidrográficas del Pacífico (Dimar‐CCCP).