Ongoing Drought Research Articles

Evaluation of Human Resource Performance at the Regional Disaster Management Agency in West Nusa Tenggara Province

Drought is a recurring disaster in West Nusa Tenggara Province, and effective disaster management relies heavily on the performance of human resources. This study aims to evaluate the performance of the human resources at the Regional Disaster Management Agency (Badan Penanggulangan Bencana Daerah, BPBD) in addressing drought disasters in the province. The research employed a descriptive method with a qualitative approach, collecting data through direct observation and documentation. Data analysis followed the document analysis model developed by Miles and Huberman, which involves data reduction, data presentation, and conclusion. The findings indicate that the human resources of BPBD West Nusa Tenggara Province (BPBD-NTB) have been effective in preventing and recording the impacts of drought in the region. Furthermore, BPBD-NTB has implemented comprehensive emergency planning, infrastructure development projects such as dam construction, and public awareness initiatives, including socialization and education programs to enhance community knowledge about drought risks and preventive actions. Reporting mechanisms were also identified as an essential component of employee performance, particularly for addressing ongoing and future drought challenges. Over the past five years, the study found that Central Lombok Regency experienced the most significant impact, with 1,368,652 people affected by drought. This underscores the critical role of human resources in disaster management and mitigation efforts in West Nusa Tenggara Province.

How Does the East Siberian Sea Ice Affect the June Drought Over Northwest China After 2000?

AbstractChanges in Arctic sea ice have exerted remarkably effects on the Eurasian climates, but it is unclear whether Arctic sea ice also contributes to Northwest China's ongoing summer drought. This study investigates the influence of the interannual variability of Arctic sea ice on the June drought in Northwest China from 1979 to 2021. It reveals that the early‐autumn sea ice in the East Siberian Sea is correlated with drought conditions in June in Northwest China, with a more pronounced connection during the period of 2000/2001–2020/2021 (P2) compared to 1979/1980–1999/2000 (P1). Mitigated drought in Northwest China is associated with anomalously high sea ice concentration (SIC) in the East Siberian Sea. Further analysis suggests that the strengthened link may be due to greater SIC variability in the East Siberian Sea during P2 than P1. In P2, positive early‐autumn SIC anomaly is linked to anomalous northeasterly winds, promoting drier soil and widespread cooling in the East European Plain. This dry soil signal may persist into the ensuing spring and early summer, inducing an anticyclonic circulation anomaly over Siberia, which could facilitate the water vapor convergence in Northwest China, thereby enhancing humidity conditions in the region. The insights from this study could offer valuable information for improved prediction of droughts in Northwest China.

Free‐roaming horses exceeding appropriate management levels affect multiple vital rates in greater sage‐grouse

AbstractSince the passage of the Wild Free‐Roaming Horses and Burros Act of 1971, federal agencies have been responsible for managing free‐roaming equids in the United States. Over the last 20 years, management has been hampered by direct opposition from advocacy groups, budget limitations, and a decline in the public's willingness to adopt free‐roaming horses (Equus caballus). As a result, free‐roaming equid numbers have increased to >3 times the targeted goal of 26,785 (horses and burros [E. asinus] combined), the cumulative sum of the appropriate management levels (AML) for all 177 designated herd management areas (HMA) managed by the Bureau of Land Management. This increase is one of the causes of greater sage‐grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) population declines, owing to habitat alteration from free‐roaming equids exacerbated by ongoing drought. To evaluate potential demographic mechanisms influencing these declines, we compiled survival data from 4 studies in central Wyoming, USA, including 995 adult female (first‐year breeders or older) sage‐grouse during the breeding season, 1,075 nests, 372 broods, and 136 juveniles (i.e., overwinter survival for fledged young), from 2008–2022. During this period, we also obtained population information for free‐roaming horses from 9 HMAs used by individual grouse in our sample. Population estimates of free‐roaming horses for these HMAs ranged from 59% to 7 times of the maximum appropriate management level (AMLmax). Sage‐grouse monitored outside of HMAs represented control populations and, because we assumed they were not exposed to populations of free‐roaming horses, we set values of AMLmax to zero for all grouse located outside of HMAs. To evaluate whether free‐roaming horses were negatively affecting sage‐grouse, we modeled daily survival of breeding age females, nest, broods, and juveniles. There was strong or moderate evidence that overabundant free‐roaming horses negatively affected nest, brood, and juvenile survival. When horse abundance increased from AMLmax to 3 times AMLmax, survival was reduced 8.1%, 18.3%, 18.2%, and 18.2% for nests, early broods (≤20 days after hatch), late broods (>20 days to 35 days after hatch), and juveniles, respectively. These results indicate increasing free‐roaming horse numbers affected vital rates for important life stages of sage‐grouse, and that maintaining free‐roaming horse numbers below AMLmax would reduce negative effects to sage‐grouse populations.

Integrated remote sensing and geographic information system overlay analysis for groundwater potential evaluation using AHP and fuzzy AHP: Southern sections of the western Afar rift margin and associated rift floor

A persistent drought commonly affects the southern sections of the western Afar rift margin and the associated rift floor, leaving the populace concerned about their access to food. A comprehensive assessment and usage of the local groundwater resource is therefore essential to overcoming the ongoing drought and meeting the area's increasing demand for sustainable water. With the aid of RS, GIS, AHP, and Fuzzy AHP methods, this study aims to assess the area's groundwater potential. Lineament density, Geology,Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), Recharge, Slope, Land Use and Land Cover, Soil, and Drainage Density were created using GIS and RS techniques and are the thematic layers taken into consideration for this purpose. The weight of these themes for their relative significance to groundwater occurrence was determined using AHP and Fuzzy AHP (FAHP). Lineament density is the primary factor influencing the presence of groundwater, followed by geology, TWI, and recharge. The Very low (221.48 km2), Low (9084.46 km2), Moderate (8281.96 km2), High (1441.65 km2), and Very High (102.45 km2) groundwater potential zones (GWPZs) were delineated using the GIS-overlay analysis technique. The validation of the groundwater potential zone map was completed using the well discharge, transmissivity, and specific capacity, and the scatter plot demonstrated a strong connection with R2 values of 0.81, 0.79, and 0.80, respectively. The sensitivity index (SI) shows that lineament density and geology, which have SI values of 2.08% and 1.74%, respectively, have the greatest influence on the distributions of groundwater potentiality in the catchment, while drainage density has the least influence, with a SI value of −0.89%. By ensuring sustainable management and development, the study's findings will help with decision-making for the long-term supply of groundwater. Additionally, the approach utilized in the study can be applied to other comparable arid to semiarid regions.

Cost of Cholera for Households and Health Facilities, Somalia

IntroductionCholera remains a substantial public health challenge in Somalia. Ongoing droughts in the country have caused significant outbreaks which have negatively affected the lives of many individuals and overwhelmed health facilities. We aimed to estimate the costs associated with cholera cases for households and health facilities in Somalia.MethodsThis cost-of-illness study was conducted in five cholera treatment centres in Somalia and 400 patients treated in these facilities. Data collection took place during October and November 2023. Given that a significant portion of the patients were children, we interviewed their caregivers to gather cost data. We interviewed staff at the centres and the patients. The data obtained from the household questionnaire covered direct (medical and non-medical) and indirect (lost wages) costs, while direct costs were estimated for the health facility (personnel salaries, drugs and consumables used to treat a patient, and utility expenses). All costs were calculated in US dollars (USD), using 2023 as the base year for the estimation.ResultsThe average total cost of a cholera episode for a household was US$ 33.94 (2023 USD), with 50.4% (US$ 17.12) being direct costs and 49.6% (US$ 16.82) indirect costs. The average total cost for a health facility to treat an episode of cholera was US$ 82.65. The overall average cost to households and health facilities was US$ 116.59. The average length of stay for a patient was 3.08 days. In the households, patients aged 41 years and older incurred the highest mean total cost (US$ 73.90) while patients younger than 5 years had the lowest cost (US$ 21.02). Additionally, 61.8% of households had to use family savings to cover the cost of the cholera episode, while 14.5% had to borrow money. Most patients (71.8%) were younger than 16 years– 45.3% were 5 years or younger– and 94.0% had never received a cholera vaccine.ConclusionOur study suggests that preventing one cholera episode in Somalia could avert substantial losses for both the households and cholera treatment centres. The findings shed light on the expenses associated with cholera that extend beyond healthcare, including substantial direct and indirect costs borne by households. Preventing cholera cases could lead to a decrease in this economic burden, consequently our study supports the need for preventive measures.

A review of the status of air quality monitoring in the Permian Basin, USA, and its implications for effective long-term monitoring of industrial operations

The Permian Basin is the largest petroleum producing region in the United States. Few studies have investigated impact the Petroleum Industry had on the air quality of the Permian Basin. Industry operations in the Basin has two primary impacts on air quality, (a) it significantly contributes carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) to the atmosphere during extraction, transport and use of fossil fuels, (b) industry operations influence public health especially when populations are in proximity to all categories of oil and gas facilities. The advent of Covid-19 in late 2019 and a severe drought that began prior to 2019 in West Texas have created unusual circumstances regarding air quality and public health in the Permian Basin. This study has monitored airborne pollen, spores, fungal spores, and other organically derived particles, and inorganic particulate matter (1, 2.5, 10-micron particulate matter (PM) and total suspended particles (TSP)), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and sulfur dioxide (SO2). The pandemic caused a historic reduction in oil and gas production slowing operations in the Permian Basin to near zero during the study period, reducing environmental effects on air quality and concomitantly an increase in flaring of natural gas. Although there were increases in the release of VOCs fixed base monitors detected no notable increase. However, an increase in the concentration of airborne pollutants (VOCs and SO2) shows a close correlation with proximity to oil and gas facilities and the intensity of industry operations. This phenomenon is attributed to the highly local nature of flaring and CH4 plume emissions from leaking oil and gas facilities. Air quality improved in the Permian Basin due to reduction in production activity because of the Covid-19 pandemic, and the reduction of particulate matter due to the ongoing drought during the study period.

Translocation Prevents the Extirpation of a Threatened Minnow During Ongoing Drought and Nonnative Species Invasions

Abstract Stream habitats and disturbance regimes are rapidly changing, leading to cascading effects on native and nonnative fish communities. Managers face the ongoing and daunting challenge of trying to maintain or recover native fish populations as habitat is dried or nonnative species invade. This reduction of suitable habitat has led to species distribution declines and an overall lack of success in many native fish management activities. Our study aimed at exploring the potential success in managing a heavily depleted native fish species by attempting to reestablish extirpated populations. We first examined how the distribution of a threatened minnow has declined from its historical to its contemporary range; then we examined if numerous translocation events during increasing pressures of nonnative invasions and ongoing multidecadal drought could successfully expand their distribution. Last, we determined if nonnative mechanical removals were effective in newly invaded streams. Little Colorado Spinedace Lepidomeda vittata distribution was reduced to only two remaining populations from the 1960s through the early 2000s. Translocations started in 2001 and despite the negative effects of drought and species invasions the efforts were largely successful (eight of nine streams), likely because managers conducted multiple translocation events and targeted perennial reaches where nonnative aquatic predators were not present. When translocated streams were invaded by nonnative fish, multipass mechanical removal efforts proved to be highly effective (removal rates of invaded populations 98.1–100%). We demonstrate that translocation and mechanical removal efforts in small streams can be a pivotal tool in managing native fish species even if sufficient habitat is scarce on the landscape; however, these efforts will likely require constant and long-term commitments to maintain species throughout their native ranges.

Initial Evaluation of the Merit of Guar as a Dairy Forage Replacement Crop during Drought-Induced Water Restrictions

Dairy is the largest sector of the agricultural industry in New Mexico, but the sector’s need for high quality forage in the face of ongoing drought and climate change causes concern. The economic merit of using guar to replace alfalfa under imposed constraints in irrigation water availability is evaluated. Nutritional quality of guar (Cyamopsis tetragonoloba L.) grown at the NMSU Agricultural Science Center at Clovis was estimated using Near Infrared Spectroscopy (NIRS) analysis. Results show that 45.6 percent of analyzed samples were comparable to Supreme or Premium alfalfa (Medicago sativa) hay using Relative Feed Value index, and 23.7% met this criteria using crude protein. While alfalfa uses 4.4 acre-feet of water (approximately 5400 cubic meters) per season, the guar sampled used 5 inches (500 cubic meters) of applied irrigation. Microsoft Excel Version 2404 LP Solver was used to identify an optimum crop mix of alfalfa and guar under different levels of irrigation water constraints. With increasing levels in modeled irrigation restrictions, the use of guar increased the potential forage production by 3% under a 0.4 acre-foot restriction up to almost 59% under a 1.5 acre-feet irrigation water limit. Our results merit additional research, including forage trials to determine the impact of guar forage on milk production and further agronomic research into growing guar to maximize forage yield.

Antidiabetic, antioxidant, and phytochemical profile of Pennisetum glaucum cultivated in central-southern Morocco and imported from India

Alternative methods of producing food sustainably are being considered due to rapid expanding population, increasing food needs, declining agricultural soils fertility, and ongoing drought. To achieve that, we examined the pharmacological, functional, and nutritional characteristics of two cultivars of pearl millet (Pennisetum glaucum), which are distinguished by their ability to tolerate a variety of climates compared to other cereal grains. In this study, we evaluated the antioxidant and antidiabetic effects of two seeds cultivars: one cultivated in Morocco and the other grown in India. In addition to having a higher energy value (403.91 Kcal), higher protein (9.13 %) and lipid content (7.11 %), and a lower capacity for self-oxidation than the Indian variety due to its fatty acid composition, the content of phenolic compounds of Moroccan millet is well concentrated in its seeds, making it more powerful as an antioxidant and hypoglycemic plant. The ethanolic extract of Moroccan pearl millet showed the greatest total phenolic content (36.278 mg GAE/g extract), DPPH and ABTS radical scavenging activity (IC50 = 152.286 and 252.480 μg/mL respectively), α-amylase and α-glucosidase inhibitory activity (IC50 = 84.439 μg/mL and 224.103 μg/mL respectively). The evidence gathered in this study indicates that P.glaucum possesses characteristics that qualify it as a food, medicinal, and productive plant.

A hot Spring for Mexico in 2024

Hot days observed during February 2024, reaching 30oC in Mexico City, have made its inhabitants forget that it was the winter season, characterized by dry and cool weather. While such extreme events are often associated with climate change, the current state of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system indicates the last months of an El Niño state, after an expectation of this to be within the top 5 El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events (https://cutt.ly/rw1h4T26). The effects of ENSO on the seasonal climate have been widely studied (Philander 1990), and their impacts on Mexico have also been documented (Magana, 2004). Recent seasonal forecasts suggest a progression towards a neutral state for the April-June 2024 season. And further projections indicate a 55% of chance of La Niña developing during the rainy season of 2024. This suggests an end to dry and warm conditions and the possibility of increased rainfall. (Magaña et al. 2003). However, with an ongoing drought over most of the Mexican region, and a water crisis affecting central Mexico, it seems that the seasonal forecasts based on ENSO projections set up the stage for a critical situation for most of the country during the Spring season.

Water and Us: tales and hands-on laboratories to educate about sustainable and nonconflictual water resources management

Abstract. Climate change and water security are among the grand challenges of the 21st century, but literacy on these matters among high-school students is often unsystematic and/or detached from the real world. This study aims to introduce the educational objectives, methods, and early results of “Water and Us”, a three-module initiative that can contribute to advancing water education in a warming climate by focusing on the natural and anthropogenic water cycle, climate change, and emerging water conflicts. The method of Water and Us revolves around storytelling to aid understanding and generate new knowledge, learning by doing, a flipped-classroom environment, and a constant link to examples from the real world (such as ongoing droughts across the world or seeds of conflict regarding transnational river basins). Water and Us was established in 2021–2022 and, during that school year, involved ≥200 students as part of a proof of concept to test the complete didactic approach using small-scale experiments. Results from ≥40 h of proof-of-concept events confirmed the effectiveness of this approach with respect to conveying the essential elements of the natural and anthropogenic water cycle, the most commonly recurring concepts related to climate change and water as well as the possible conflicts and solutions related to water scarcity in a warming climate. The Water and Us team remains interested in networking with colleagues and potential recipients to upscale and further develop this work.

Interplay between climate change and climate variability: the 2022 drought in Central South America

Since 2019, Central South America (CSA) has been reeling under drought conditions, with the last 4 months of 2022 receiving only 44% of the average total precipitation. Simultaneously to the drought, a series of record-breaking heat waves has affected the region. The rainfall deficit during October–November-December (OND) is highly correlated with the Niño3.4 index, indicating that the OND 2022 rainfall deficit is partly driven by La Niña, as observed in previous droughts in this region. To identify whether human-induced climate change was also a driver of the OND 2022 rainfall deficit, we analysed precipitation over the most impacted region. Our findings revealed a pattern of decreased rainfall over the past 40 years, although we cannot definitively conclude whether this trend exceeds what would be expected from natural variations. To clarify if this trend can be attributed to climate change, we looked at 1-in-20-year low rainfall events over the same region in climate models. The models show that the severity of low rainfall events decreases (i.e. they become wetter, the opposite of the trend observed in most weather records), although this trend is again not significant and is compatible with natural variability. Therefore, we cannot attribute the low rainfall to climate change. Moreover, our analysis of effective precipitation potential (evapotranspiration minus rainfall) shows that, in climate models, the increase in temperature does partly compensate for the increase in rainfall but only to offset the wetting, and does not lead to a significant climate change signal in effective precipitation. However, higher temperatures in the region, which have been attributed to climate change, decreased water availability in the models in late 2022, indicating that climate change probably reduced water availability over this period also in the observations, increasing agricultural drought, although this study did not quantify this effect. This means that even though the reduced rainfall is within the natural variability, the consequences of drought are becoming more severe due to the strong increase in extreme heat. The case of the OND 2022 rainfall deficit and the ongoing drought in CSA is a clear example of the interplay between climate variability and human-induced climate change. This shows the importance of considering not only those aspects associated with climate change but also climate variability in order to understand and attribute particular events or trends at the regional level.

A multiproxy approach to reconstruct the Late Holocene environmental dynamics of the semiarid Andes of central Chile (29°S)

Mountain ecosystems located in the Andes cordillera of central Chile (29–35°S) have been strongly affected by the ongoing Mega Drought since 2010, impacting the snow cover, the surficial water resources (and thereby water storage), as well as the mountain biota and ecosystem services. Paleoenvironmental records in this part of the semiarid Andes are key to estimating the effects of past climate changes on local communities helping to forecast the ecological and biological responses under the aridification trend projected during the 21st century. Here we present a 2400-year multiproxy paleoenvironmental reconstruction based on pollen, diatoms, chironomids, sedimentological and geochemical data (XRF and ICP-MS data) of Laguna El Calvario (29°S; 3994 m a.s.l), a small and shallow Andean lake. Four main hydrological phases were established based on changes in the lithogenic and geochemical results associated with allochthonous runoff input and the subsequent response of the biological proxies. Between 2400 and 1400 cal yrs BP, wetter than present conditions occurred based on the intense weathering of the lake basin and the dominance of upper Andean vegetation. A decrease in moisture along with sub-centennial discrete wet pulses and lake-level changes occurred until ~800 cal yrs BP followed long-term stable climate conditions between 1850 and 1950 AD as suggested by a drop in vegetation productivity and low lake levels. From 1950 AD to the present, a decline in moisture with a severe trend to drier conditions occurring in the last decades occurred as reflected by an upward vegetation belt displacement around Laguna El Calvario along with a turnover of diatom assemblages and high productivity in the water column.

Arizona Groundwater Explorer: interactive maps for evaluating the historical and current groundwater conditions in wells in Arizona, USA

Groundwater is an important water source in Arizona, accounting for about 41% of water use in this mostly arid-to-semiarid state in the southwestern United States, and the availability of groundwater resources in the state is a concern. To provide accessible information from depth-to-groundwater data, a series of web-based interactive maps were developed, called the Arizona Groundwater Explorer (AGEx). Scripts were written to harmonize and synthesize groundwater datasets from the two largest publicly available sources, subset these data to address different groundwater availability questions, and display the results in online, interactive maps. The combined dataset contained 1,820,122 depth-to-groundwater measurements from 1891 through 2022 from 41,918 wells in Arizona. Data views are provided for 20 topics, including recent (2020 or later) depth to groundwater (4,569 wells), historical (pre-1950) depth to groundwater (4,287 wells), wells with long-term (≥50 years) records (1,183 wells), wells with recent groundwater level decline (277 wells), wells with recent groundwater level rise (120 wells), and linear trends in groundwater levels over ten 10-year periods (number of wells ranging from 341 in 1978–1987 to 1,208 in 2003–2012), among others. With ongoing drought in the region resulting in declining surface-water supplies in Arizona, groundwater may play an even larger role in satisfying water needs in the state. The AGEx series of maps provides a nonspecialist audience with an improved understanding of historical, current, and changes in groundwater levels in Arizona.

Participatory Landscape Conservation: A Case Study of a Seasonally Dry Tropical Forest in Michoacan, Mexico

Participatory landscape conservation is an innovative approach that weaves together theoretical models and practical applications. Intertropical regions, such as Mexico, face challenges to conciliate regional governability, social justice, and nature conservation. The State of Michoacan is one of these regions where such challenges are exacerbated, particularly nature conservation, due to ongoing territorial disputes. We implemented the participatory landscape conservation approach by creating a complementary form of protected area to deal with ongoing conflicts, drought conditions, and extreme poverty. We conducted participatory mapping and landcover/use analyses as the main methodological tools to reach consensus among stakeholders. We integrated, macro, micro, and social scales to provide sound arguments to integrate local, scholar, and policy makers’ perceptions. The outcomes of the participatory mapping analyses were assessed. The present paper provides evidence of the positive outcome of using The Participatory Landscape Conservation Approach to establish a Biosphere Reserve, safeguarding one of the most biologically diverse and delicate ecosystems consisting of seasonally dry tropical forests within a rather disputed region. We discussed the relevance of our findings and compared them to ongoing regional and global trends in light of other forms of establishing long-term multistakeholder agreements, as is the case for protected areas.

Pasteurella sp. associated with fatal septicaemia in six African elephants

The sudden mortality of African elephants (Loxodonta africana) in Botswana and Zimbabwe in 2020 provoked considerable public interest and speculation. Poaching and malicious poisoning were excluded early on in the investigation. Other potential causes included environmental intoxication, infectious diseases, and increased habitat stress due to ongoing drought. Here we show evidence of the mortalities in Zimbabwe as fatal septicaemia associated with Bisgaard taxon 45, an unnamed close relative of Pasteurella multocida. We analyse elephant carcasses and environmental samples, and fail to find evidence of cyanobacterial or other intoxication. Post-mortem and histological findings suggest a bacterial septicaemia similar to haemorrhagic septicaemia caused by P. multocida. Biochemical tests and 16S rDNA analysis of six samples and genomic analysis of one sample confirm the presence of Bisgaard taxon 45. The genome sequence contains many of the canonical P. multocida virulence factors associated with a range of human and animal diseases, including the pmHAS gene for hyaluronidase associated with bovine haemorrhagic septicaemia. Our results demonstrate that Bisgaard taxon 45 is associated with a generalised, lethal infection and that African elephants are susceptible to opportunistically pathogenic Pasteurella species. This represents an important conservation concern for elephants in the largest remaining metapopulation of this endangered species.

Different hydraulic and photosynthetic responses to summer drought between newly sprouted and established Moso bamboo culms.

The subtropical regions in China are prone to recurrent summer droughts induced by the Western Pacific Subtropical High-Pressure, which has induced the death of tens of millions of culms of Moso bamboo (Phyllostachys edulis (Carriere) J. Houzeau), a widely distributed giant bamboo with high economic and ecological values. In the future, the intensity and frequency of the summer drought are projected to increase in these areas due to global climate change, which may lead to significant age-specific mortality of Moso bamboo. So far, it is still unclear about the age-specific response mechanisms of hydraulic traits and carbon balance of Moso bamboo when it is suffering to an ongoing summer drought. This study aimed to investigate the hydraulic and photosynthetic responses of newly sprouted (1 year old) and established (2-5 years old) culms of Moso bamboo to summer drought, which was manipulated by throughfall reduction in Lin'an of Zhejiang. The results showed that both newly sprouted and established culms had a gradually weakening hydraulic conductivity and photosynthesis during the whole drought process. In the early stage of the manipulated drought, the established culms had more loss of hydraulic conductivity than the newly sprouted culms. However, the newly sprouted culms had significant more loss of hydraulic conductivity and lower photosynthetic rates and stomatal conductance in the middle and late stages of the manipulated drought. The results suggest that the newly sprouted culms were more susceptible to summer drought than established culms due to the combined effects of hydraulic damage and photosynthetic restriction, explaining why the newly sprouted culms have higher mortality than elder culms when subjected to extreme drought. These findings provided insights into the mechanisms of Moso bamboo's age-specific drought-induced mortality, which will help for the anti-drought management of bamboo.

Sub-seasonal to seasonal outlook of the 2022–23 southwestern Korea meteorological drought

The southwestern Korean Peninsula had experienced cumulative precipitation deficits from the early spring of 2022, causing a severe meteorological drought in March 2023. As a growing season was forthcoming, the sub-seasonal to seasonal outlook of this ongoing drought came into question. This study aims to investigate a key driver of the ongoing drought and the required precipitation for its termination, and examine the sub-seasonal and seasonal outlooks of the ongoing drought via probabilistic and climate model-based forecasts. Results show a comparable contribution of springtime and summertime precipitation deficits in 2022, indicating that six-month accumulated precipitation deficit of 2022 was a key driver of the ongoing drought. We find that at least 80, 150, and 210 mm (170, 310, and 440 mm) of accumulated precipitation are required for the recovery (full recovery) in March, April, and May 2023, respectively. These required cumulative precipitation are found from 25% and 20% of empirical and dynamic precipitation forecasts, respectively. This study highlights the importance of the collaborative effort of national and local governments and stakeholders on mitigating negative impacts of the ongoing drought.

Ocean-forcing of cool season precipitation drives ongoing and future decadal drought in southwestern North America

The US Southwest is in a drought crisis that has been developing over the past two decades, contributing to marked increases in burned forest areas and unprecedented efforts to reduce water consumption. Climate change has contributed to this ongoing decadal drought via warming that has increased evaporative demand and reduced snowpack and streamflows. However, on the supply side, precipitation has been low during the 21st century. Here, using simulations with an atmosphere model forced by imposed sea surface temperatures, we show that the 21st century shift to cooler tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures forced a decline in cool season precipitation that in turn drove a decline in spring to summer soil moisture in the southwest. We then project the near-term future out to 2040, accounting for plausible and realistic natural decadal variability of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans and radiatively-forced change. The future evolution of decadal variability in the Pacific and Atlantic will strongly influence how wet or dry the southwest is in coming decades as a result of the influence on cool season precipitation. The worst-case scenario involves a continued cold state of the tropical Pacific and the development of a warm state of the Atlantic while the best case scenario would be a transition to a warm state of the tropical Pacific and the development of a cold state of the Atlantic. Radiatively-forced cool season precipitation reduction is strongest if future forced SST change continues the observed pattern of no warming in the equatorial Pacific cold tongue. Although this is a weaker influence on summer soil moisture than natural decadal variability, no combination of natural decadal variability and forced change ensures a return to winter precipitation or summer soil moisture levels as high as those in the final two decades of the 20th century.

A Revised Adaptive Decision-Making Framework for Rangeland Management

Rangelands across the world are facing rapid and unprecedented social and ecological change. In the US West, sustaining the ecological and economic integrity of rangelands across both public and private lands depends largely on ranchers who make adaptive decisions in the face of variability and uncertainty. In this study, we build on previous conceptualizations of adaptive decision making that situate individual-level decisions within complex rangeland social-ecological systems. We surveyed 450 (36% response rate) Montana ranchers to gain insight into how key factors influenced adaptive decision making, specifically in the context of ongoing drought and climate-related change affecting rangeland ecology and productivity. We predicted that ranchers’ management goals, their use of information sources, and their use of monitoring would significantly influence the use of adaptive practices, with monitoring mediating the relationship between the explanatory and response variables. We tested these predictions using a path model analysis and found that management goals related to both stewardship and profit/production, the number of information sources used, and monitoring were all significantly and positively related to ranchers’ use of adaptive management practices. Interestingly, we found that these factors were hierarchical with monitoring and the use of information was the strongest predictor while management goals were secondary. The significant, mediating effect of monitoring on the use of adaptive practices suggests that monitoring may be an important means for providing ranchers with useful and timely information about rangeland condition that is needed to adjust their actions, meet their management goals, and adapt to drought and climate-related change. We argue there is a need to better understand the efficacy of monitoring designs—of what, by whom, and how—for adaptive decision making, and we discuss other considerations related to the provision of useful drought and climate information for adaptive decision making based on our findings.