One-year Survival Probability Research Articles

Integrating Overall Survival and Tumor Control Probability Models to Predict Local Progression After Brain Metastasis Radiosurgery

BackgroundStereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) for brain metastases is frequently prescribed to the maximum tolerated dose to minimize the probability of local progression. However, many patients die from extracranial disease prior to local progression and may not require maximally aggressive treatment. Recently, improvements in models of SRS tumor control probability (TCP) and overall survival (OS) have been made. We predicted that by combining models of OS and TCP, we could better predict the true risk of local progression after SRS than by employing TCP modeling alone. MethodsRecords of patients undergoing SRS at a single institution were reviewed retrospectively. Using established TCP and OS models, for each patient, the probability of one-year survival [p(OS)] was calculated, as was the probability of one-year local progression [p(LP)]) for each treated lesion. Joint-probability was used to combine the models [p(LP,OS)=p(LP)*p(OS)]. Analyses were conducted at the individual metastasis and whole-patient levels. Fine-Gray regression was used to model p(LP) or p(LP,OS) on the risk of local progression after SRS, with death as a competing risk. ResultsAt the patient level, one-year local progression was 0.08 (95%CI, 0.03-0.15), median p(LP,OS) was 0.13 (95%, CI 0.07-0.2), and median p(LP) was 0.29 (95% CI, 0.22-0.38). At the metastasis level, one-year local progression was 0.02 (95%CI, 0.01-0.04), median p(LP,OS) was 0.05 (95%, CI 0.02-0.07), and median p(LP) was 0.10 (95% CI, 0.07-0.13). p(LP,OS) was found to be significantly associated with the risk of local progression at the patient level (p=0.048) and metastasis level (p=0.007); however, p(LP) was not (p=0.16 and p=0.28, respectively). ConclusionSimultaneous modeling of OS and TCP more accurately predicted local progression than TCP modeling alone. Better understanding which patients with brain metastases are at risk of local progression after SRS may help personalize treatment to minimize risk without sacrificing efficacy.

P761 Clinical efficacy and durability of subcutaneous infliximab in patients with moderate-to-severe inflammatory bowel disease : a real-world data from a Korean multicentre prospective cohort study

Abstract Background Subcutaneous infliximab (IFX-SC) has shown comparable efficacy and safety with IV infliximab in ulcerative colitis (UC) or Crohn's disease (CD) since its launching in 2021. We aimed to investigate the one-year real-life efficacy and durability of IFX-SC in Korea. Methods From September 2021 to November 2023, patients with moderate-to-severe UC or CD, who are naive to any types of biologic agents or IFX were prospectively enrolled from 41 tertiary referral centers in Korea. After IV infliximab induction from Week (W) 0 to W2, patients received IFX-SC every 2 weeks from W6. Patients who administered IFX-SC less than W14 were excluded. Clinical remission (CREM), clinical response (CRES) at W26, W50, and one-year drug survival were assessed. In patients with CD, CREM was defined as Crohn’s disease activity index (CDAI) <150 points, and CRES was defined as a reduction in CDAI ≥70 points from baseline. In patients with UC, CREM was defined as partial Mayo score(pMS) of ≤1 points with no individual subscore of >1 point, and CRES was defined as a reduction from baseline in pMS of ≥2 points and ≥30% along with either a reduction in rectal bleeding subscore (RBS) of ≥1 point or an absolute RBS of ≤1 point19. Drug survival was evaluated based on the time of drug persistence from W0 to the last date of IFX-SC administration among drug-off cases. Results A total of 192 patients (UC with 53, and CD with 139) were enrolled, consisting of about 80% of biologic naïve cohort. Enrolled patients included young adults with a male predominance (Table 1). At W26, patients with UC showed 54.5% CREM and 88.6% CRES (Figure 1A). Among patients with CD, rates of CREM and CRES were 92.1% and 97.0%, respectively. Similarly, W50 CREM and CRES were also favorable with a rate of 57.1% and 89.3% among UC patients. In addition, among CD patients, favorable outcome was more obvious, showing 84.6% and 93.8% of CREM and CRES. Meanwhile, one-year drug survival was also investigated. As shown on the Figure 1B, one-year drug survival probability seemed favorable with a survival rate over 97% in both UC and CD patients (UC; 98.1% at W26 with 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.874–0.852, 96.1% at W50, 95% CI, 0.852–0.990, and CD; 97.8% at W26 with 95% CI, 0.933–0.993, 97.8% at W50 with 95% CI, 0.933–0.993). During the study, 3.1% (six patients) of serious adverse events were reported. Conclusion IFX-SC seems to be efficacious therapeutic option for patients with moderate-to-severe UC or CD patients in real-world settings. With a favorable drug survival and tolerable safety profile, it may facilitate individualized treatment with a good compliance.

MODL-27. INTEGRATING OVERALL SURVIVAL AND TUMOR CONTROL PROBABILITY MODELS TO PREDICT LOCAL PROGRESSION AFTER BRAIN METASTASIS RADIOSURGERY

Abstract PURPOSE Stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) for brain metastases has competing goals of maximizing local control and minimizing toxicity. Tumor control probability (TCP) models predict decreasing risk of local progression (LP) with dose escalation. However, many patients die from extracranial disease prior to local progression and may not require maximally aggressive treatment, which increases risk of toxicity. Better tools to assess patients’ risk of LP after SRS could help practitioners personalize SRS treatment to maximize therapeutic ratio. Here we assess whether simultaneous modeling of TCP and overall survival (OS) can improve prediction of LP after SRS. METHODS Records of patients undergoing SRS at a single institution were reviewed retrospectively. Using established OS and TCP models, the probability of one-year survival [p(OS)] and probability of one-year LP [p(LP)]) were calculated for each patient and each metastasis, respectively. Joint-probability was used to combine the models [p(LP,OS)=p(LP)*p(OS)]. Analyses were conducted at the individual-metastasis and whole-patient levels. Fine-Gray regression was used to model the effect of p(LP) or p(LP, OS) on risk of local progression after SRS, with death as a competing risk. RESULTS Ninety-two patients and 391 lesions were identified. At the patient level, one-year LP was 0.08 (95%CI, 0.03-0.15), median p(LP,OS) was 0.13 (95%, CI 0.07-0.2), and median p(LP) was 0.29 (95% CI, 0.22-0.38). At the metastasis level, one-year LP was 0.02 (95%CI, 0.01-0.04), median p(LP,OS) was 0.05 (95%, CI 0.02-0.07), and median p(LP) was 0.10 (95% CI, 0.07-0.13). p(LP,OS) was significantly associated with the risk of local progression at the patient level (p=0.048) and metastasis level (p=0.007); however, p(LP) was not (p=0.16 and p=0.28, respectively). CONCLUSION This study suggests simultaneous OS and TCP modeling more accurately predicts LP than TCP modeling alone. Better understanding which patients are at risk of LP after SRS may help personalize treatment to minimize risk without sacrificing efficacy.

Risk Factors Associated with Survival Following Ganciclovir Prophylaxis through Day +100 in Cytomegalovirus At-Risk Pediatric Allogeneic Stem Cell Transplantation Recipients: Development of Cytomegalovirus Viremia Associated with Significantly Decreased 1-Year Survival

Cytomegalovirus (CMV) reactivation is a major cause of morbidity and nonrelapse mortality (NRM) in pediatric allogeneic stem cell transplantation (alloSCT) recipients. Approximately 80% of CMV seropositive alloHCT recipients will experience CMV reactivation without prophylaxis. The impacts of ganciclovir prophylaxis and subsequent CMV viremia on 1-year survival and 1-year NRM are unknown. The primary objective of this study was to determine the effect of CMV viremia on the probability of 1-year survival and 1-year NRM in pediatric alloSCT recipients receiving 100 days of ganciclovir prophylaxis. The secondary objective was to determine the effect of other risk factors on 1-year survival and 1-year NRM. All patients age 0 to 26 years who underwent alloSCT between June 2011 and May 2020 and received ganciclovir prophylaxis for 100 days at Westchester Medical Center, an academic medical center, were analyzed. Ganciclovir was administered to at-risk alloSCT recipients (donor and or recipient CMV+ serostatus) as 5 mg/kg every 12 hours from the first day of conditioning through day -1 (recipient CMV+ only) followed by 6 mg/kg every 24 hours on Monday through Friday beginning on the day of an absolute neutrophil count >750/mm3 and continuing through day +100. National Cancer Institute Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events 5.0 criteria were used to grade toxicity. NRM was analyzed using competing survival analysis with relapse death as a competing event. The log-rank and Gray tests were performed to compare the 1-year survival probabilities and NRM cumulative incidence between patients who experienced CMV viremia post-alloSCT and those who did not. Univariate Cox regression analysis was performed for the following risk factors: CMV viremia, donor source, sex, malignant disease, disease risk index, conditioning intensity, receipt of rabbit antithymocyte globulin (rATG)/alemtuzumab, graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) prophylaxis, CMV donor/recipient serostatus, grade II-IV acute GVHD, and grade 3/4 neutropenia necessitating discontinuation of ganciclovir, treating the last 3 factors as time-dependent covariates. Those with P values < .2 were included in the multivariate Cox regression analysis. Eighty-four alloSCT recipients (41 males, 43 females; median age, 10.8 years [range, .4 to 24.4 years]) were analyzed. Multivariate analysis showed significantly lower 1-year survival and significantly higher 1-year NRM in patients who developed CMV viremia compared to those who did not (P=.0036). No other risk factors were significantly associated with 1-year survival or 1-year NRM. One-year survival was significantly decreased and 1-year NRM was significantly increased in pediatric alloSCT recipients who developed CMV viremia following ganciclovir prophylaxis. No other risk factors were found to be associated with 1-year survival or 1-year NRM. Alternative CMV prophylaxis regimens that reduce CMV viremia should be investigated in pediatric alloSCT recipients at risk for CMV infection.

Predictors of do-not-attempt-resuscitation decisions in patients with infratentorial or large supratentorial intracerebral hemorrhages and consequences thereafter: a register-based, longitudinal study in Sweden

ObjectivesDo-not-attempt-resuscitation (DNAR) decisions for patients with infratentorial or large supratentorial intracerebral hemorrhages (ICHs) pose clinical and ethical challenges. We aimed to investigate factors associated with DNAR decisions in patients with infratentorial or large (≥30 mL) supratentorial ICH, and differences in complications, treatment, and mortality.Materials & methodsThis longitudinal, observational study comprised all patients treated for ICH at three stroke units in Gothenburg, Sweden, between November 2014 and June 2019. Patients were identified in the local stroke register, and additional data were collected from medical records and national registries. Mortality rates were followed 1 year after incident ICHs. Factors associated with DNAR decisions, and one-year mortality were explored.ResultsOf 307 included patients, 164 received a DNAR decision. Most (75%) decisions were made within 24 h. DNAR decisions were associated with higher age, pre-stroke dependency, stroke severity, and intraventricular hemorrhage. Patients without DNAR decisions received thrombosis prophylaxis, oral antibiotics, and rehabilitative evaluations more frequently. The one-year survival probability was 0.16 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.11–0.23) in patients with DNAR decisions, and 0.87 (95% CI 0.81–0.92) in patients without DNAR decision. DNAR decisions, higher age, stroke severity, hematoma volume, and comorbidities were associated with increased one-year mortality. Thrombosis prophylaxis and living alone were associated with a lower hazard.ConclusionThe majority of DNAR decisions for patients with infratentorial or large supratentorial ICH were made within 48 h. Higher age, pre-stroke dependency, high stroke severity, and intraventricular hemorrhage predicted receiving a DNAR decision. DNAR decisions were strongly associated with increased short- and long-term mortality.

Preexisting psychological illness and its association with mortality in lung cancer patients with access to support resources.

Diagnosis of lung cancer often results in tremendous stress for most patients, especially in patients with underlying psychological illness. Psychosocial support (consultation with psychologist, psychotherapist, or social worker) referral is considered standard for quality cancer care; however, which patients utilize these resources and how these resources affect patient outcomes remain unclear. We aimed to identify which newly diagnosed lung cancer patients accessed available psychosocial resources and assessed how utilization of these resources correlated with treatment and survival outcomes. Data were collected from National Cancer Institute-designated cancer center at the University of New Mexico. We analyzed lung cancer registry and mortality data at the cancer center and bronchoscopy suite data to retrospectively identify patients diagnosed with lung cancer between 2012 and 2017. We used a logistic regression model to compare psychological support utilization at the cancer center between patients with and without history of psychiatric illness. We used a Cox proportional hazards model to identify individual risk factors for mortality. Patients with a previous psychological diagnosis were 2.4 times more likely (odds ratio = 2.443; confidence interval [CI], 1.130-5.284) to utilize psychological resources than patients without a pre-cancer psychological diagnosis. Patients who received psychosocial intervention had a 120.4% higher hazard of dying than those who did not (hazard ratio = 2.204; 95% CI, 1.240-3.917). One-year survival probability among those who did not utilize resources was 62.65% (95% CI, 55.24%-71.06%) and 43.0% (95% CI, 31.61%-58.50%) among those who did. Patients with a previous psychiatric diagnosis were more likely to utilize psychosocial resources within 1 year of lung cancer diagnosis. Patients with previous psychiatric illness are more likely to utilize psychosocial resources at the cancer center after a new diagnosis of lung cancer. Patients who utilize psychosocial interventions have higher 1-year mortality than those who do not.

Hepatic resection versus microwave ablation for the treatment of early hepatocellular carcinoma: a comparative analysis of treatment outcomes and survival predictors

IntroductionLiver resection and local ablation are the two primary curative treatments for early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Microwave ablation (MWA) shows promising performance in terms of early tumor response, recurrence, and survival. This study aims to determine whether MWA would be comparable to liver resection in treating early-stage HCC.MethodsThis study included patients with hepatitis C-related HCC attending the multidisciplinary HCC clinic, Kasr Al-Ainy Hospital (March 2018 to September 2020). We included adults with early-stage HCC (BCLC stages 0-A). We studied patients and tumor characteristics, HCC treatment response, recurrence, and overall survival.ResultsThirty-one patients were treated with liver resection and 41 patients were treated with MWA, including 4 patients who received intraoperative MWA. By the end of the study, 21 patients (28.77%) died. Patients who underwent MWA were younger compared to the hepatectomy group with lower baseline AFP (21 (6.7–54) versus 77 (31.3–136.0), respectively, (P value 0.024) and tumor size (2.78 (0.87) cm versus 3.77 (0.97) cm, respectively, (P value < 0.001). We found no differences between the studied groups in terms of treatment response, post-treatment decompensation, recurrence, or overall survival. One-year survival probability in the MWA and resection groups was 75.5% and 76.3% respectively. Post-procedure hepatic decompensation was the only independent predictor of lower survival by multivariate logistic regression analysis (OR 37.74, 95%CI 6.251–227.87, P value < 0.001) after adjusting for age, AFP, and tumor size.ConclusionLiver resection and MWA showed similar satisfactory results in the treatment of early-stage HCC, in terms of treatment response, recurrence, and overall survival.

American Indian/Alaska Native and black colon cancer patients have poorer cause-specific survival based on disease stage and anatomic site of diagnosis

ObjectivesStudies of race-specific colon cancer (CC) survival differences between right- vs. left-sided CC typically focus on Black and White persons and often consider all CC stages as one group. To more completely examine potential racial and ethnic disparities in side- and stage-specific survival, we evaluated 5-year CC cause-specific survival probabilities for five racial/ethnic groups by anatomic site (right or left colon) and stage (local, regional, distant). MethodsWe obtained cause-specific survival probability estimates from National Cancer Institute’s population-based Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) for CC patients grouped by five racial/ethnic groups (Non-Hispanic American Indian/Alaska Native [AIAN], Non-Hispanic Asian/Pacific Islander [API], Hispanic, Non-Hispanic Black [NHB], and Non-Hispanic White [NHW]), anatomic site, stage, and other patient and SEER registry characteristics. We used meta-regression approaches to identify factors that explained differences in cause-specific survival. ResultsDiagnoses of distant-stage CC were more common among NHB and AIAN persons (>22 %) than among NHW and API persons (< 20 %). Large disparities in anatomic site-specific survival were not apparent. Those with right-sided distant-stage CC had a one-year cause-specific survival probability that was 16.4 % points lower (99 % CI: 12.2–20.6) than those with left-sided distant-stage CC; this difference decreased over follow-up. Cause-specific survival probabilities were highest for API, and lowest for NHB, persons, though these differences varied substantially by stage at diagnosis. AIAN persons with localized-stage CC, and NHB persons with regional- and distant-stage CC, had significantly lower survival probabilities across follow-up. ConclusionsThere are differences in CC presentation according to anatomic site and disease stage among patients of distinct racial and ethnic backgrounds. This, coupled with the reality that there are persistent survival disparities, with NHB and AIAN persons experiencing worse prognosis, suggests that there are social or structural determinants of these disparities. Further research is needed to confirm whether these CC cause-specific survival disparities are due to differences in risk factors, screening patterns, cancer treatment, or surveillance, in order to overcome the existing differences in outcome.

Post-Stroke Outcomes of Patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.

Introduction: Research has shown that patients with ischemic stroke and coexisting obstructive respiratory disorders have worse clinical status on admission and increased long-term mortality. Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are at increased risk of stroke, and the risk is even greater after exacerbation of COPD. Moreover, COPD and stroke share major risk factors, which are advancing age and smoking. The aim of this study was to analyze the incidence of complications and mortality in acute ischemic stroke (AIS) patients with and without COPD. Material and methods: We analyzed prospectively collected data of 1022 patients with acute is-chemic stroke hospitalized in a district general hospital. The patients were divided into two groups—with coexisting COPD and without COPD. Results: Logistic regression analysis, which allowed for potential confounders, showed an association between coexisting COPD and the fol-lowing complications in acute ischemic stroke patients: heart failure (OR = 1.879, p = 0.048), atrial fibrillation (OR = 4.746, p = 0.012), delirium (OR = 2.803, p < 0.001), pneumonia (OR = 2.424, p = 0.005), bronchospasm (OR = 3.400, p = 0.023), and out-hospital mortality (OR = 2.656, p = 0.001). Conclusion: Patients presenting with acute ischemic stroke and coexisting COPD significantly more often had cardiac and pulmonary complications, as well as delirium following stroke. In a long-term follow-up, the probability of one-year survival was significantly lower in AIS patients with co-existing COPD.

Impact of limited sample size and follow-up on single event survival extrapolation for health technology assessment: a simulation study

IntroductionExtrapolation of time-to-event data from clinical trials is commonly used in decision models for health technology assessment (HTA). The objective of this study was to assess performance of standard parametric survival analysis techniques for extrapolation of time-to-event data for a single event from clinical trials with limited data due to small samples or short follow-up.MethodsSimulated populations with 50,000 individuals were generated with an exponential hazard rate for the event of interest. A scenario consisted of 5000 repetitions with six sample size groups (30–500 patients) artificially censored after every 10% of events observed. Goodness-of-fit statistics (AIC, BIC) were used to determine the best-fitting among standard parametric distributions (exponential, Weibull, log-normal, log-logistic, generalized gamma, Gompertz). Median survival, one-year survival probability, time horizon (1% survival time, or 99th percentile of survival distribution) and restricted mean survival time (RMST) were compared to population values to assess coverage and error (e.g., mean absolute percentage error).ResultsThe true exponential distribution was correctly identified using goodness-of-fit according to BIC more frequently compared to AIC (average 92% vs 68%). Under-coverage and large errors were observed for all outcomes when distributions were specified by AIC and for time horizon and RMST with BIC. Error in point estimates were found to be strongly associated with sample size and completeness of follow-up. Small samples produced larger average error, even with complete follow-up, than large samples with short follow-up. Correctly specifying the event distribution reduced magnitude of error in larger samples but not in smaller samples.ConclusionsLimited clinical data from small samples, or short follow-up of large samples, produce large error in estimates relevant to HTA regardless of whether the correct distribution is specified. The associated uncertainty in estimated parameters may not capture the true population values. Decision models that base lifetime time horizon on the model’s extrapolated output are not likely to reliably estimate mean survival or its uncertainty. For data with an exponential event distribution, BIC more reliably identified the true distribution than AIC. These findings have important implications for health decision modelling and HTA of novel therapies seeking approval with limited evidence.

From the Editor’s Desk…

From the Editor’s Desk…

Transition to Ductal Stenting for Single Ventricle Patients Led to Improved Survival: An Institutional Case Series.

The use of systemic-to-pulmonary shunts (SPS) in neonates with single ventricle heart defects and ductal-dependent pulmonary blood flow (ddPBF) was historically associated with high morbidity and mortality at our center. As a result, we transitioned to the preferential use of ductus arteriosus stents (DS) when feasible. This report describes our initial results with this strategy. A single-center study of single ventricle patients that received DS or SPS from 2015 to 2019 was performed to assess whether DS was associated with decreased in-hospital morbidity and increased survival to stage II palliation. A total of 34 patients were included (DS = 11; SPS = 23). Underlying cardiac anomalies were similar between groups and included pulmonary atresia, unbalanced atrioventricular septal defect, and tricuspid atresia. Procedure success was similar between groups (82% vs 83%). Two DS patients were converted to SPS, due to ductal vasospasm or pulmonary artery obstruction, and four SPS patients required surgical shunt revision. In DS patients, postprocedure mechanical ventilation duration was shorter (one vs three days, P = .009) and fewer required postprocedure extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (9% vs 39%, P = .11). A higher proportion of DS patients survived to stage II palliation (100% vs 64%, P = .035), and the probability of one-year survival was higher in DS patients (100% vs 61%, P = .02). At our center, patients with single ventricle heart defects and ddPBF that received DS experienced reduced in-hospital morbidity and increased survival to stage II palliation compared to SPS.

B-cell compartment abnormalities are associated with ACLF and mortality in patients with liver cirrhosis

BackgroundLiver cirrhosis profoundly affects the immune system, leading to an immunological imbalance known as cirrhosis-associated immune dysfunction. AimsThis study aimed to investigate B-cell disturbances in patients with acute decompensation (AD) of cirrhosis and assess relationships with prognosis and mortality. MethodsThe study included 39 patients with AD of cirrhosis, 29 patients with stable cirrhosis (SC), and 30 healthy controls (CTR). Circulating B-cell subsets and cytokine plasma levels were determined by flow cytometry. ResultsCirrhotic groups showed higher percentages of naïve B cells, and lower percentages of CD27+ memory B cells (MBCs) than CTR. Further analysis comparing SC and AD revealed that the latter had higher frequencies of double-negative (DN) B cells and plasmablasts. Patients with more advanced liver disease exhibited a B-cell maturation shift toward MBCs and plasmablasts. Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) was associated with higher DN frequency. The Kaplan–Meier one-year survival probability was 92.9% in patients with >1.3% of transitional B cells and 27.3% in patients with <1.3%. ConclusionsB-cell subsets are markedly altered in cirrhotic patients, and cell profiles differ between stable and decompensated liver disease. Increased frequencies of DN B cells and reduced proportions of transitional B cells may be of great relevance in predicting ACLF and mortality, respectively.

Adherence to anticoagulant guideline for atrial fibrillation: A large care gap among stroke patients in a rural population

ObjectiveThis study aimed to investigate the prevalence and factors associated with oral anticoagulant undertreatment of atrial fibrillation (AF) among a cohort of rural patients with stroke outcomes and examine how undertreatment may influence a patient's one-year survival after stroke. MethodsThis retrospective cohort study examined ischemic stroke patients with pre-stroke AF diagnosis from September 2003 to May 2019 and divided them into proper treatment and undertreatment group. Analysis included chi-square test, variance analysis, Kruskal-Wallis test, logistic regression, Kaplan-Meier estimator, and Cox proportional-hazards model. ResultsOut of 1062 ischemic stroke patients with a pre-stroke AF diagnosis, 1015 patients had a CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥2, and 532 (52.4%) of those were undertreated. Median time from AF diagnosis to index stroke was significantly lower among undertreated patients (1.9 years vs. 3.6 years, p < 0.001). Other thromboembolism, excluding stroke, TIA, and myocardial infarction (OR 0.41, p < 0.001), the number of encounters per year (OR 0.90, p < 0.001), and the median time between AF diagnosis and stroke event (OR 0.86, p < 0.001) were negatively associated with undertreatment. Kaplan-Meier estimator showed no statistical difference in the one-year survival probability between groups (log-rank test, p = 0.29), while the Cox-Hazard model showed that age (HR 1.05, p < 0.001) and history of congestive heart failure (HR 1.88, p < 0.001) increased the risk of mortality. ConclusionsMore than half of our rural stroke patients with a pre-index AF diagnosis were not on guideline-recommended treatment. The study highlights a large care gap and an opportunity to improve AF management.

Outcomes of Patients Bridged to Cardiac Transplant with Subclavian Access Intra-Aortic Balloon Pumps: A Single Center Experience and Matched UNOS Analysis

<h3>Purpose</h3> To describe adverse events associated with subclavian access intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP) before and after cardiac transplant utilizing high level, single center data. In order to assess morbidity associated with IABP use, a matched United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) cohort without IABP support was created as a comparison group. <h3>Methods</h3> The study included two patient groups: 1) patients bridged to cardiac transplant as Status 2 with subclavian access IABP at single center and 2) a UNOS cohort of transplant recipients (between 2014-2018) matched on hemodynamic Status 2 requirements and wait times. Patient characteristics and post-transplant outcomes were compared. Complications specific to the subclavian IABP using the single center data were collected and reported. <h3>Results</h3> The single center subclavian access IABP cohort included 28 patients and was compared to the matched UNOS cohort of 202 patients. There was no significant difference in age, ischemic cardiomyopathy diagnosis, or wait times between the two cohorts (Table 1). Post-transplant length of stay and need for post-transplant dialysis was higher in the IABP supported patients. The one-year survival probabilities were similar (subclavian IABP: 96%, matched UNOS cohort: 93%, log rank p = 0.97). Balloon pump repositioning (36%) and replacement (21%) were common. Post-operative infections attributable to the graft site occurred in 17% of patients. <h3>Conclusion</h3> Patients transplanted on subclavian access IABP had comparable survival at 1 year to a UNOS matched cohort, however IABP re-positioning, replacement and post-operative infections were common. The matched cohort analysis suggests the IABP itself may be associated with longer length of stay and higher rates of post-transplant dialysis, although patient acuity may have accounted for this difference despite hemodynamic matching.

Abstract P670: Obesity and Mortality After the First Ischemic Stroke: Is Obesity Paradox Real?

Introduction: Obesity is an established risk factor for ischemic stroke but the association of increased body mass index (BMI) with survival after ischemic stroke remains controversial. Many studies have shown that increased BMI has a “protective” effect on survival after stroke while other studies have debunked the obesity paradox. This study aimed at examining the relationship between BMI and all-cause mortality at one year in first-time ischemic stroke patients using data extracted from different resources including electronic health records. Methods: We analyzed consecutive ischemic stroke patients captured in the Geisinger NeuroScience Ischemic Stroke (GNSIS) database. Survival in first-time ischemic stroke patients was analyzed using Kaplan-Meier estimator, stratified by different BMI categories. The predictors of mortality at one-year were assessed using a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model. Results: Among 6,703 first-time adult ischemic stroke patients, mean age was 70.2 ±13.5 years and 52% were men. Of these patients, 24% patients were non-overweight (BMI &lt; 25), 34% were overweight (BMI 25-29.9) and 41% were obese (BMI ≥ 30). One-year survival probability was significantly higher in overweight patients (87%, 95% CI: [85.6 - 88.4], p&lt;0.001) and obese patients (89.5%, 95% CI: [88.4 - 90.7], p&lt;0.001) compared to non-overweight patients (78.1%, 95% CI: [76.0 - 80.1]). In multivariate analysis, one-year mortality was significantly lower in overweight and obese patients (overweight patients- HR = 0.61 [95% CI, 0.52 - 0.72]; obese patients- HR = 0.56 [95% CI, 0.48 - 0.67]). Other significant predictors of one-year mortality were age at the ischemic stroke event (HR = 1.04 [95% CI, 1.03 - 1.04]), history of neoplasm (HR = 1.59 [95% CI, 1.38 - 1.85]), atrial fibrillation or flutter (HR = 1.26 [95% CI, 1.09 - 1.46]), heart failure (HR = 1.68 [95% CI, 1.42 - 1.98]), diabetes mellitus (HR = 1.27 [95% CI, 1.1 - 1.47]), rheumatic disease (HR = 1.37 [95% CI, 1.05 - 1.78]) and myocardial infarction ((HR = 1.23 [95% CI, 1.02 - 1.48]). Conclusion: Our results support the obesity paradox in ischemic stroke patients as shown by a significantly decreased hazard ratio for one-year mortality among overweight and obese patients in comparison to non-overweight patients.

Development of a Suitability Review Process for High-Risk Allogeneic Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation Candidates

<h3>Introduction</h3> One-year survival outcomes for allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplants (HCT) at an Academic Medical Center's Blood and Marrow Transplant (BMT) program fell outside the risk-adjusted outcomes model developed by the Center for International Blood & Marrow Transplant Research (CIBMTR)[1]. Suitability Review was designed in order to evaluate potential allogeneic HCT recipients deemed high-risk based on CIBMTR survival statistics. <h3>Methods</h3> Center-specific results were used in order to recognize variables identified as clinically significant for allogeneic HCT patients in relation to one-year survival outcomes[1]. Recipients were presented for formal discussion in Suitability Review with the following criteria: • Relapsed/refractory lymphoma, regardless of age • Co-morbidity index (CI) (Sorror Score) >/= 8, regardless of age • Age >/= 65, regardless of CI or diagnosis • Significant clinical decline, disease progression, or prolonged hospitalization within 21 days of HCT preparative regimen Predicted patient one-year survival probability estimate was calculated using the CIBMTR survival calculator tool[2]. Cases were presented to Academic Medical Center's BMT Medical Director and transplant provider team by patient's primary transplant physician. Potential recipients were deemed eligible, ineligible or deferred. The review process was documented in the center's electronic transplant database. <h3>Results</h3> One-year survival for high-risk HCT patients that proceeded to transplant after suitability review was 58%. Expected survivals for this patient populated would be less than 35% based on CIBMTR survival statistics. <h3>Conclusion</h3> Allogeneic HCT remains a potential curative treatment option for high-risk HCT patients. Suitability Review continues to be modified to reflect advances in treatment options while still providing exceptional care to complicated patients with advanced disease and significant co-morbidities.

Outcome of therapeutic deep anterior lamellar keratoplasty in advanced Acanthamoeba keratitis.

Purpose:To report and analyze the outcomes of therapeutic deep anterior lamellar keratoplasty (DALK) in patients with advanced Acanthamoeba keratitis (AK).Methods:Medical records of microbiologically confirmed AK, underwent DALK from 2004 to 2017, were reviewed and the data related to early and late outcome including complications were retrieved. Outcome of cases with largest diameter of infiltrate ≥8 mm at the time of surgery (advanced keratitis) were analyzed and compared with those with less severe keratitis (infiltrate size less than 8 mm).Results:Out of 23 patients of AK in whom DALK was performed, ten (43.4%) patients had advanced keratitis. Mean age of these patients was 38.7 ± 8.6 years (range, 25 to 56). Median visual acuity at presentation was 2.78 (IQR, 1.79–3.0) that improved to 1.79 (IQR, 0.70–2.78) postoperatively. Early complications included recurrence of AK in 2 (20%), Descemet's membrane detachment in 5 (50%), and persistent epithelial defect in 3 (30%) cases. Overall, 6 (60%) grafts failed, whereas 4 (40%) patients had clear graft at their last follow-up. Median follow-up of these cases was 5 months (IQR, 1.4–11.4). One graft developed stromal rejection, which resolved with increased dose of corticosteroids. In comparison, DALK performed for less severe keratitis (N = 13) had 1 (7.6%) recurrence and 2 (15.8%) grafts failure (OR, 8.25). The probability of one-year graft survival and eradication of infection was 32% and 74.1%, respectively, in advanced cases compared to 91.6% and 83.9% in less severe cases.Conclusion:Outcome of DALK in advanced Acanthamoeba keratitis is less favorable compared to those carried out for less severe keratitis cases.

Impact of Renal Dysfunction Measured By Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate (eGFR) on Outcomes after Allogeneic Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation (HCT)

Introduction Renal dysfunction is a recognized risk factor for mortality after HCT, as it is included in the comorbidity index (HCT CI). Yet, further understanding on outcomes in patients with different level of renal dysfunction or undergoing hemodialysis (HD) at time of transplant remains scant. This study explores the impact of different levels renal dysfunction on major HCT outcomes in a large population using data reported to the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research (CIBMTR). Methods The study population included 8,102 patients age 40 years and older who received HCT for treatment of malignancies from 2008 to 2016, with available pre-transplant creatinine measurement. eGFR, calculated using CKD-EPI (CKD-epidemiology collaboration) method, was used to assigned patients in four categories: eGFR ≥ 90ml/min (eGFR≥ 90, N=4,237, reference), eGFR 60-90ml/min (eGFR 60-90, N=3,158), eGFR 45-59ml/min (eGFR 45-59, N=538) and eGFR &lt;45ml/min(eGFR&lt;45, N=169). A separate cohort of patients on HD at time of HCT (N=46) was analyzed independently. Multivariate analysis models were built for assessment of overall mortality, transplant-related mortality (TRM), disease relapse or progression, graft-versus-host disease (GVHD), hepatic sinusoidal obstructive syndrome (SOS), thrombotic microangiopathy (TMA), idiopathic pneumonia syndrome (IPS) and need of HD post-transplant. Common patient-, disease- and transplant-related covariates were tested on all models and HCT CI was computed without reported renal dysfunction comorbidity to avoid collinearity. Results Patient characteristics are shown in table 1. The groups were comparable on disease risk index, graft and donor source, but patients with eGFR&gt;90 were younger and received myeloablative conditioning more frequently. The cohort of eGFR &lt;45 had a higher proportion of patients with HCT CI ≥3. TRM and overall survival according to eGFR groups are shown in Figure. In the multivariate analysis models eGFR as the main effect was associated with TRM (p&lt;0.0001), overall mortality (p&lt;0.0001), and requirement of HD post HCT (p&lt;0.0001), but not for relapse/progression (p=0.98), GVHD (grades II-IV, p=0.34; III-IV, p=0.70; and chronic, p=0.20), TMA (p=0.46), SOS (p=0.02) or IPS (p=0.06). Compared to eGFR ≥90, the hazard ratio (HR) for TRM for eGFR 60-89 was 1.12 (p=0.07), for eGFR 45-59 was 1.46 (p&lt;0.001) and for eGFR&lt;45 was 1.74 (p=0.004). Corresponding HRs for overall mortality were 1.0 (p=0.9), 1.17 (p=0.03) and 1.63 (p&lt;0.0001), respectively. Similarly, for the need of HD post HCT, HR for eGFR60-89 was 1.29 (p=0.03), eGFR45-59 was 2.45 (p&lt;0.001) and for eGFR&lt;45 was 3.09 (p&lt;0.0001). Only eGFR&lt;45 was associated with higher risk of SOS (HR2.66, p=0.03). Among 46 patients on HD prior to HCT, one-year probability of overall survival was 20% (95% Confidence Interval [CI] 10-32%) and cumulative incidence of TRM at one year was 67% (95% CI, 50-81%). Conclusion These findings indicate that degree of renal dysfunction is an independent predictor of OS, TRM, probability of receiving HD and SOS when adjusted for other risk factors. The impact of eGFR on the need of HD, a complication that increases morbidity post HCT is an important finding. Additionally, the outcomes of a subset of patients on HD at time of transplants are dismal. These results can further assist the prognostic assessment of candidates for an allogeneic HCT. Disclosures Stadtmauer: Celgene: Consultancy; Takeda: Consultancy; Janssen: Consultancy; Amgen: Consultancy; Novartis: Consultancy, Research Funding; Tmunity: Research Funding; Abbvie: Research Funding. Wingard:Ansun: Consultancy; Pluristem: Consultancy; Celgene: Consultancy; Merck: Consultancy; Shire: Consultancy. Ganguly:Seattle Genetics: Speakers Bureau; Daiichi Sankyo: Research Funding; Kite Pharma: Honoraria, Other: Advisory Board; Janssen: Honoraria, Other: Advisory Board. Pasquini:Pfizer: Other: Advisory Board; Amgen: Consultancy; Medigene: Consultancy; BMS: Research Funding; Novartis: Research Funding; Kit Pharma: Research Funding.

3333Contemporary mortality rates in myocardial infarction patients in Sweden: a tale of two registries

Abstract Background Sweden has contributed to the understanding of the long-term prognosis after myocardial infarction (MI) utilising the quality registry SWEDEHEART, including patients admitted to heart intensive care, and the National Patient Registry (PAR), based on administrative records for Swedish hospitals. As registration procedures differ between the registries, and not all MI patients are admitted to heart intensive care, MI patients identified in SWEDEHEART and PAR, respectively, will yield different cohorts of patients. This may result in different epidemiological research findings regarding prognosis after MI. Purpose To study MI populations identified in SWEDEHEART and PAR, respectively, and investigate potential differences in mortality outcome. Methods Patients hospitalised with an MI primary diagnosis (ICD-10 I21) between 2002 and 2015 were identified using SWEDEHEART and PAR. The analysis time started at the date of hospital admission and survivors were followed for 365 days. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to estimate survival by cohort category controlling for age and gender. Results Excluding cases with invalid data (n=1,905), 225,612 and 282,118 SWEDEHEART and PAR patients, respectively, were identified. We found 213,367 patients in both SWEDEHEART and PAR, whereas 12,245 and 68,751 patients were unique to SWEDEHEART and PAR, respectively. The one-year survival probability after MI in the SWEDEHEART population was 0.841, compared to 0.788 in PAR (Figure). This discrepancy can be explained by high mortality among patients not covered by SWEDEHEART and persists after controlling for age and gender (Table). To what extent differences in registration procedures and other patient characteristics can explain the mortality difference is an area for further research. One-year survival by age and gender Age ± 1 year Male Female PAR S.H. Diff. PAR S.H. Diff. 65 0.922 0.936 0.015 0.919 0.936 0.017 70 0.893 0.909 0.016 0.889 0.908 0.019 75 0.829 0.858 0.029 0.834 0.860 0.026 80 0.743 0.783 0.040 0.768 0.800 0.033 85 0.625 0.677 0.052 0.662 0.705 0.042 One-year survival after MI Conclusion Estimated one-year survival for MI patients differs by up to 5 percentage points depending on the registry used. Although further research is needed to fully understand these differences, epidemiological findings regarding MI prognosis should be interpreted in light of registry type used and population represented. Acknowledgement/Funding Region Östergötland