SAGD (Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage) technology is a highly developed method for the extracting heavy oil. In the Liaohe Oilfield in China, there are 72 SAGD well groups within a massive heavy oil reservoir containing edge water and the risk associated with edge water invasion is substantial. Currently, the injected steam is less than 50 m away from the edge water, which increases the urgency to address the potential invasion of edge water. If the edge water flows into the reservoir, it will impact nearly 8.0 × 105 tons of crude oil production. Recognizing the importance of mitigating the edge water invasion, this paper proposes a prediction model for the edge water invasion flow rate in SAGD reservoirs. The model integrates mass and heat transfer dynamics between the steam chamber and edge water, the relative permeabilities of oil and water phases, and the viscosity-temperature relationship of water. The model is validated through numerical simulations and field data. The findings indicate that for SAGD reservoirs with a permeability greater than 1 D, maintaining a minimum distance of 25 m between the edge water and the steam chamber is advisable, especially when the pressure differential is 0.5 MPa. Furthermore, the prediction model is used to forecast the edge water breakthrough time and evaluate water invasion risk. A prediction chart for the edge water invasion flow rate is developed, providing a practical tool for estimating invasion flow rate curves. Also, a method of edge water invasion warning is established, with a corresponding chart that offers a quick assessment of water invasion risks in heavy oil reservoirs. Overall, this research lays a foundational framework for understanding and managing the edge water invasion in SAGD operations, offering critical insights for the future study aimed at addressing the challenge posed by edge water in heavy oil reservoirs.
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