Official Race Research Articles

Fractional utilization of the 10-minute treadmill test velocity in running performance.

This study aimed to evaluate the applicability of the 10-minute submaximal treadmill test (T10 test), a self-paced test, in determining critical speed (CS) and predicting running performance. Specifically, we sought to identify the percentage of T10 velocity (vT10) that runners performed in official distance races, and to compare physiological and performance indicators between sexes. 60 recreational runners (n = 34 males and n = 26 females) underwent a maximum incremental test, the novel T10 test, and ran 1200-m and 2400-m on the track. Runners self-reported their best performance times. Generalized Linear Model was used to compare running performances between sexes. For both males and females, the %vT10 in 5km, 10km, and half-marathon races occurred at 107.5% and 106.5%, 99.9% and 100.8%, and 92.6% and 97.1%, respectively. There was no interaction effect (p = .520) and no main effect of sex (p = .443). There was a main effect of distance (p < .001), indicating that %vT10 in the 5km race differed from that found in the 10km race (p = .012), as well as in the half-marathon (p < .001). Our findings suggest that %vT10 values can be used to determine pace in recreational endurance runners for race distances regardless of sex.

Thirty days of double-strain probiotic supplementation increases monocyte phagocytosis in marathon runners.

Marathon runners, subjected to intense training regimens and prolonged, exhaustive exercises, often experience a compromised immune response. Probiotic supplementation has emerged as a potential remedy to mitigate the impact of prolonged exercise on athletes. Consequently, this study sought to assess the influence of probiotic supplementation on monocyte functionality both before and after the official marathon race. Twenty-seven runners were randomly and double-blindly assigned to two groups: placebo (n 13) and probiotic (PRO) (n 14). Over 30 d, both groups received supplements - placebo sachets containing maltodextrin (5 g/d) and PRO sachets containing 1 × 1010 colony-forming unit Lactobacillus acidophilus and 1 × 1010 colony-forming unit Bifidobacterium bifidum subsp. lactis. Blood samples were collected, and immunological assays, including phagocytosis, hydrogen peroxide production, cytokine levels and monocyte immunophenotyping, were conducted at four different intervals: baseline (start of supplementation/30 d pre-marathon), 24 h-before (1 d pre-marathon), 1 h-after (1 h post-marathon) and 5 d-after (5 d post-marathon). Monocyte populations remained consistent throughout the study. A notable increase in phagocytosis was observed in the PRO group after 30 d of supplementation. Upon lipopolysaccharide stimulation, both PRO and placebo groups exhibited decreased IL-8 production. However, after the marathon race, IL-15 stimulation demonstrated increased levels of 5 d-after, while IL-1-β, IL-8, IL-10, IL-15 and TNF-α varied across different intervals, specifically within the PRO group. Probiotic supplementation notably enhanced the phagocytic capacity of monocytes. However, these effects were not sustained post-marathon.

Stability of Running Stride Biomechanical Parameters during Half-Marathon Race

This study explores the stability of biomechanical parameters of the running stride of male trained athletes during a half-marathon competition. Using a field-based descriptive design, eight male athletes from a local training group were monitored throughout an official half-marathon race under identical conditions, assessing biomechanical parameters including ground contact time (GCT), leg spring stiffness (LSS), vertical oscillation (VO), and stride length (SL) recorded via the Stryd Summit Power Meter. A repeated measures analysis of variance (RM ANOVA) was conducted to detect significant changes in biomechanical parameters as the race progressed. Results demonstrated minimal changes in all parameters, with no significant differences observed for GCT (F = 0.96, p = 0.38), VO (F = 0.23, p = 0.87), and SL (F = 1.07, p = 0.35), and a small (η2 = 0.004) yet statistically significant difference in LSS (F = 5.52, p = 0.03) between the first and second segments, indicating that athletes were able to maintain stable biomechanical parameters throughout the race. The conclusion highlights the need for personalized training programs tailored to the unique biomechanical adaptations and demands of endurance running.

Non-specific and ski-specific performance development in peri-pubertal cross-country skiers.

To evaluate non-specific and ski-specific performance development in male (M) and female (F) peri-pubertal cross-country skiers and to evaluate their relationship with cross-country skiing (XCS) performance and biological maturation within each age category and sex. Twenty-one and 19 athletes under 14 and 16years old, respectively (U14 and U16), were tested for biological maturation; non-specific speed, agility, strength, endurance, and balance; ski-specific speed, agility, and endurance. XCS index was considered as average percentage time-gap from the winner in four official races. Sex and age-category effects were verified and a model predicting XCS index was extrapolated for each group. Performance capacities raised across age categories (p < 0.05) except for non-specific speed, agility, balance, and relative arm strength (p > 0.05). F showed advanced biological maturation and greater balance than M (p < 0.05), while M showed higher performance capacities (p < 0.05). XCS index was not related to biological maturation within each group (p > 0.05); its variance was explained by non-specific speed and ski-specific upper-body endurance in M-U14 (p = 0.014), lower-limb strength and ski-specific agility in M-U16 and F-U14 (both p = 0.001), ski-specific upper-body endurance in F-U16 (p = 0.002). Ski-specific performance capacities still develop during peri-puberty, with peri-pubertal M overperforming with respect to F of comparable performance level. XCS index was not influenced by biological maturation withing each age category, but it was rather explained by specific parameters that commonly undergo the "adolescent spurts", accordingly to the average biological maturation level of M and F athletes of each age category.

Biomechanical changes identified during a marathon race among high-school aged runners

BackgroundDespite the increasing popularity of endurance running competitions among adolescent runners, there is currently limited information regarding expected biomechanical changes across the duration of a long-distance running event, and the relationship between young runners’ biomechanics and running performance. Wearable technology offers an ecological means to continuously assess runners’ biomechanical data during outdoor running competitions. Research questionDo adolescent athletes adopt changes in sensor-derived biomechanics throughout a marathon race, and are there relationships between race performance and biomechanical features among young marathoners? MethodsFourteen high-school aged runners (9 M, 5 F; age: 16 ± 1 years, height: 170.8 ± 7.5 cm; mass: 63.6 ± 9.4 kg) wore lace-mounted sensors to record step-by-step biomechanics during a marathon race. Official race segment completion times were extracted across 5 race segments (5-K, 15-K, Half Marathon [21.1-K], 35-K, Marathon [42.2-K]). Within-participant repeated measures of covariance (pace) were conducted to assess changes in biomechanics across the race, with Bonferroni post-hoc comparisons. Pearson’s r correlations were performed to assess the relationship between race finish times and biomechanics. ResultsPace was significantly slower (p-range: 0.002–0.005), contact times significantly longer, and stride lengths significantly shorter in the final segment compared to middle segments (p-range: 0.003–0.004). The rate of shock accumulation was significantly higher in the final race segment compared to the first three segments (p-range: 0.001–0.002). Moderate relationships existed between finish times and pace (r = −0.63), stride length (r = −0.62), and contact time (r = 0.51). SignificanceAdolescent runners altered their gait patterns in the final marathon segment compared to earlier segments. Spatiotemporal measures were moderately correlated with race finish times, suggesting a link between faster run pace, increased stride lengths, and reduced contact time for improved running performance during an endurance race.

An analysis of the São Silvestre race between 2007–2021: An increase in participation but a decrease in performance

This study aimed to investigate the trends of finishers in the São Silvestre race in Brazil, taking into account sex, age, and performance levels. A total of 31 ​775 runners (women, n ​= ​13 ​847; men, n ​= ​17 ​928), aged (45.2 ​± ​16.8) years, finishers in the São Silvestre race between 2007 and 2021, were considered in the present analysis. Data (event year, date of birth, sex, and race times) were downloaded from the official race website. The man-Whitney U test, Spearman correlation, and robust regression model were computed. Participation increased over time for both sexes. Regarding age groups, “31–40 years” (women) and “> 60 years” (men) were those with the highest number of finishers. We found a decrease in performance across the years (β ​= ​2.45; p ​< ​0.005), as well as significant differences in race times for both sexes (U ​= ​42.844; p ​< ​0.001), with men presenting better performances than women. Over time, it was observed an increase in the performance gap between the sexes, but in general, the performance decreased (β ​= ​1.76; p ​< ​0.001). Stakeholders should consider improving the strategies to improve women and young people's participation in running events.

Elite vs. Experienced Male and Female Trail Runners: Comparing Running Economy, Biomechanics, Strength, and Power.

Besson, T, Pastor, FS, Varesco, G, Berthet, M, Kennouche, D, Dandrieux, P-E, Rossi, J, and Millet, GY. Elite vs. experienced male and female trail runners: comparing running economy, biomechanics, strength, and power. J Strength Cond Res 37(7): 1470-1478, 2023-The increased participation in trail running (TR) races and the emergence of official international races have increased the performance level of the world best trail runners. The aim of this study was to compare cost of running (Cr) and biomechanical and neuromuscular characteristics of elite trail runners with their lower level counterparts. Twenty elite (10 females; ELITE) and 21 experienced (10 females; EXP) trail runners participated in the study. Cr and running biomechanics were measured at 10 and 14 km·h-1 on flat and at 10 km·h-1 with 10% uphill incline. Subjects also performed maximal isometric voluntary contractions of knee and hip extensors and knee flexors and maximal sprints on a cycle ergometer to assess the power-torque-velocity profile (PTVP). Athletes also reported their training volume during the previous year. Despite no differences in biomechanics, ELITE had a lower Cr than EXP (p < 0.05). Despite nonsignificant difference in maximal lower-limb power between groups, ELITE displayed a greater relative torque (p < 0.01) and lower maximal velocity (p < 0.01) in the PTVP. Females displayed shorter contact times (p < 0.01) compared with males, but no sex differences were observed in Cr (p > 0.05). No sex differences existed for the PTVP slope, whereas females exhibited lower relative torque (p < 0.01) and velocity capacities (p < 0.01) compared with males. Although not comprehensively assessing all determining factors of TR performance, those data evidenced level and sex specificities of trail runners in some factors of performance. Strength training can be suggested to lower level trail runners to improve Cr and thus TR performance.

An Autonomous Racing System: Design, Implementation, and Analysis; Team KAIST at the IAC

While the majority of autonomous driving research has concentrated on everyday driving scenarios, further safety and performance improvements of autonomous vehicles require a focus on extreme driving conditions. In this context, autonomous racing is a new area of research that has been attracting considerable interest recently. Due to the fact that a vehicle is driven by its perception, planning, and control limits during racing, numerous research and development issues arise. This paper provides a comprehensive overview of the autonomous racing system built by team KAIST for the Indy Autonomous Challenge (IAC). Our autonomy stack consists primarily of a multi-modal perception module, a high-speed overtaking planner, a resilient control stack, and a system status manager. We present the details of all components of our autonomy solution, including algorithms, implementation, and unit test results. In addition, this paper outlines the design principles and the results of a systematical analysis. Even though our design principles are derived from the unique application domain of autonomous racing, they can also be applied to a variety of safety-critical, high-cost-of-failure robotics applications. The proposed system was integrated into a full-scale autonomous race car (Dallara AV-21) and field-tested extensively. As a result, team KAIST was one of three teams who qualified and participated in the official IAC race events without any accidents. Our proposed autonomous system successfully completed all missions, including overtaking at speeds of around 220 km/h in the IAC@CES2022, the world’s first autonomous 1:1 head-to-head race.

Normative data of the start in the 50 m events at the 2021 LEN European Championships and understanding its relationship with the final race

This study aimed to: (i) present normative data of the variables related to the start in the four swim strokes by tier and sex, and; (ii) understand the relationship between the 15th meter mark time and the final race time of the male and female swimmers competing in the four 50 m events at the 2021 European Championships. Participants were all male and female swimmers who competed in the 50 m events at the 2021 LEN European Championships held in Budapest. The official race times and block times were retrieved from the official competition website. All starting variables were analyzed in a dedicated software for race analysis. The 15th meter mark time was used as the start main outcome. For all events by sex, the 15th meter mark time was the variable presenting the highest and largest tier effect (p &lt; 0.001) besides the final race time. Overall, despite the swim stroke, the variables related to the underwater phase were also responsible for the significant tier effect (p &lt; 0.001). The 15th meter mark time presented a high to very-high relationship with the final race time in all four swim strokes. This relationship was stronger in freestyle (both sexes). That is, swimmers who achieve the 15th meter mark sooner are more likely to deliver better performances. Coaches must be aware that the underwater phase plays a key-role on the swimmers’ (both sexes) start performance. Nonetheless, different strategies can be used based on the swimmers’ strength and weaknesses. Moreover, the start performance in all four swim strokes and in both sexes can strongly predict the final race time.

Fifteen risk factors associated with sudden death in Thoroughbred racehorses in North America (2009-2021).

To identify risk factors associated with race-related sudden death in Thoroughbred racehorses in the US and Canada. 4,198,073 race starts made by 284,387 Thoroughbred horses at 144 racetracks in the US and Canada between 2009 and 2021. Study data were extracted from the Equine Injury Database, which contains detailed records of 92.2% of all official race starts made in the US and Canada during the study period. Forty-nine potential risk factors were analyzed using univariable and multivariable logistic regression. Cases were defined as race starts that resulted in fatality within 3 days of racing, in which at least 1 of 5 codes relating to sudden death was recorded. Fatalities due to catastrophic musculoskeletal injury were omitted from the study cohort. 536 race starts resulted in sudden death, an incidence rate of 0.13/1,000 starts. Fifteen risk factors were significantly associated with sudden death, including horse age and sex, season and purse of race, race distance, and horses' recent history of injury and lay-up. Horses racing while on furosemide medication were at 62% increased odds of sudden death. Associations found between previous injury and sudden death suggests preexisting pathology could contribute in some cases. The association between furosemide and sudden death prompts further study to understand which biological processes could contribute to this result.

From Secret Fashion Shoots to the #100projectors

From Secret Fashion Shoots to the #100projectors

Reconstruction of walking motion without flight phase by using computer simulation on the world elite 20 km female race walkers during official race

article: Reconstruction of walking motion without flight phase by using computer simulation on the world elite 20 km female race walkers during official race - Gazzetta Medica Italiana - Archivio per le Scienze Mediche 2022 May;181(5):303-14 - Minerva Medica - Journals

Diagnostic Value of Tracheal Wash Cytology for Monitoring Exercise-Induced Pulmonary Hemorrhage in Thoroughbred Racehorses

Lower airway cytology has been proposed as a complementary diagnostic method to confirm the presence and quantifying the severity of exercise-induced pulmonary hemorrhage (EIPH). Bronchoalveolar lavage is usually preferred over tracheal wash (TW), yet the need for sedation imposes as a limitation for active sport horses in addition to be a highly invasive technique. This study aims to evaluate the diagnostic value of TW with Total Hemosiderin Score (THS) for monitoring EIPH in active Thoroughbred racehorses. A sampling of 47 randomly selected Thoroughbreds were endoscopically examined for EIPH grading 30 to 60 minutes after competing in an official race and then classified as Group 1 (EIPH-negative), Group 2 (EIPH-positive) or Group 3 (furosemide users). Tracheal wash fluids (TWFs) were collected from 24 to 30 hours later and smears were stained for differential cell count and hemosiderophage grading and counting to calculate THS. Differential cell counts were compared by the median test. Comparisons between mean THS values by EIPH grade and by group were compared by the Mann-Whitney test and ANOVA, respectively. Test performance criteria were determined with a contingency table. It was not possible to establish a THS cut-off point but statistical results showed that, at THS stand view, all groups had similar results despite their EIPH grades. Most animals showed no signs of neutrophilic inflammation, but haemosiderophages were found even on a first-time runner from Group 1. Thus, TW can detect evidence of lung bleeding even on horses with no history of EIPH. The implementation of TW analysis to diagnose EIPH in racehorses is promising, as TW is both low-cost and a less invasive tool.

Using Physiological Laboratory Tests and Neuromuscular Functions to Predict Extreme Ultratriathlon Performance

ABSTRACTPurpose: This study aims to investigate the relationship between split disciplines and overall extreme ultra-triathlon (EUT) performance and verify the relationship among physiological and neuromuscular measurements with both fractional and total EUT performance while checking which variables could predict partial and overall EUT race time. Methods: Eleven volunteers (37 ± 6 years; 176.9 ± 6.1 cm; 77.9 ± 10.9 kg) performed two maximal graded tests (cycling and running) for physiological measurements and muscle strength/power tests to assess neuromuscular functions. Results: The correlation of swimming split times to predict overall EUT race times was lower than for cycling and running split times (r2 = 0.005; p > .05; r2 = 0.949; p < .001 and r2 = 0.925; p < .001, respectively). VO2peak obtained during running test (VO2peakrun) and VT power output assessed during cycling test (VTPO) were the highest predictors of cycling performance (r2 = 0.92; p = .017), whereas VO2peakrun and peakpower output in the cycling test (PPO) were the highest predictors of running performance (r2 = 0.94; p = .008). Conclusion: VO2peakrun and VTPO, associated to jump height assessed during countermovement jump (CMJ) test were the highest correlated variables to predict total EUT performance (r2 = 0.99; p = .007). In practical terms, coaches should include the assessment of VO2peakrun, VTPO, and CMJ to evaluate the athletes’ status and monitor their performance throughout the season. Future studies should test how the improvement of these variables would affect EUT performance during official races.

Oxidant and Antioxidant Parameters' Assessment Together with Homocysteine and Muscle Enzymes in Racehorses: Evaluation of Positive Effects of Exercise.

This study aimed to evaluate the changes in serum oxidant and antioxidant parameters together with the serum values of homocysteine (Hcy) and muscle enzymes including creatine kinase (CK), aspartate aminotransferase (AST) and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) in regularly trained athletic horses during official races of 1200, 1600 and 2000 m. Thirty Thoroughbred horses were divided into three groups of 10 subjects each according to the race distance: Group 1, 1200 m race; Group 2, 1600 m race; Group 3, 2000 m race. Blood samples were collected from horses 1 week prior to the race (1WB), on the day of the race at rest (TREST), immediately after the race (TPOST), and after 30 (TPOST30) and 120 (TPOST120) minutes. Serum total proteins, reactive oxygen metabolites (dROMs), thiol antioxidant barrier (SHp), antioxidant barrier (Oxy-ads), Hcy, CK, AST and LDH values were assessed. A two-way repeated measures ANOVA did not show differences referable to the race distance (Group effect) on all investigated parameters (p > 0.05). An exercise effect on oxidative stress markers, Hcy and muscle enzymes herein investigated was found in all groups (p < 0.001). A Pearson’s test showed dROMs positively correlated with SHp, Oxy-ads and Hcy after exercise (p < 0.05). This study suggests that, though well-trained racing horses are subjected to oxidative stress during a race, a proper antioxidant capacity may improve their ability to cope with exercise-induced oxidative stress.

Does maternity during sports career jeopardize future athletic success in elite marathon runners?

The impact of maternity (Mat) on subsequent athletic performance is not well known. This study aims to investigate the impact of maternity among elite marathoners on their overall performance progression. For each runner listed in the top 150 female marathoners, who had experienced a mid-career maternity, performance development was reconstituted throughout the career. Maternity data and career break time span (Ttotal) were collected from publicly available informations. Performances were modelled according to the known age-performance relationship and the impact of maternity was added into the model. Linear mixed effect model was used to study the influence of maternity on the overall career. Among this sample, thirty-seven runners had at least 1 child during her career. Among them, fourteen had two children. Eleven runners (29.72%) made their personal best performance before Mat, which occurred at an average age of 28.40 ± 4.00 years. Twenty-six runners (70.28%) establish their best performances after Mat, at an average age of 32.20 ± 4.28. The age-performance relationship model explains 92% of the performance variability during the career’s progression. When age is considered, maternity does not have significant impact on performance development. World’s most competitive marathoners can still perform at their best level after pregnancy. The ability to return and surpass previous performance level is influenced by the age at which pregnancy occurs, relative to the age of peak performance during career development.

Collagen Gene Polymorphisms Previously Associated with Resistance to Soft-Tissue Injury Are More Common in Competitive Runners Than Nonathletes.

Dines, HR, Nixon, J, Lockey, SJ, Herbert, AJ, Kipps, C, Pedlar, CR, Day, SH, Heffernan, SM, Antrobus, MR, Brazier, J, Erskine, RM, Stebbings, GK, Hall, ECR, and Williams, AG. Collagen gene polymorphisms previously associated with resistance to soft-tissue injury are more common in competitive runners than nonathletes. J Strength Cond Res 37(4): 799-805, 2023-Single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of collagen genes have been associated with soft-tissue injury and running performance. However, their combined contribution to running performance is unknown. We investigated the association of 2 collagen gene SNPs with athlete status and performance in 1,429 Caucasian subjects, including 597 competitive runners (354 men and 243 women) and 832 nonathletes (490 men and 342 women). Genotyping for COL1A1 rs1800012 (C > A) and COL5A1 rs12722 (C > T) SNPs was performed by a real-time polymerase chain reaction. The numbers of "injury-resistant" alleles from each SNP, based on previous literature (rs1800012 A allele and rs12722 C allele), were combined as an injury-resistance score (RScore, 0-4; higher scores indicate injury resistance). Genotype frequencies, individually and combined as an RScore, were compared between cohorts and investigated for associations with performance using official race times. Runners had 1.34 times greater odds of being rs12722 CC homozygotes than nonathletes (19.7% vs. 15.5%, p = 0.020) with no difference in the rs1800012 genotype distribution ( p = 0.659). Fewer runners had an RScore 0 of (18.5% vs. 24.7%) and more had an RScore of 4 (0.6% vs. 0.3%) than nonathletes ( p < 0.001). Competitive performance was not associated with the COL1A1 genotype ( p = 0.933), COL5A1 genotype ( p = 0.613), or RScore ( p = 0.477). Although not associated directly with running performance among competitive runners, a higher combined frequency of injury-resistant COL1A1 rs1800012 A and COL5A1 rs12722 C alleles in competitive runners than nonathletes suggests these SNPs may be advantageous through a mechanism that supports, but does not directly enhance, running performance.

Horse Racing as a Model to Study the Relationship between Air Pollutants and Physical Performance.

Simple SummaryAmbient air contains a mixture of pollutants, the effects of which on animal and human health have been widely described. In contrast, the effects on physical performance are poorly understood, largely due to the difficulty of implementing an experimental model to study this problem. Thoroughbred horse racing involves many animal athletes, of similar genetics, environmental exposure, training, and diet, who participate by breathing varying mixtures of ambient air. This paper presents an analysis strategy based on the homogeneity of the races, the distance, and the design of the track. This paper presents a preliminary analysis in which we observe that the level of performance is decreased by concentrations of PM10, PM2.5, NO2, NO, and CO in the air. Thus, we note that this natural experiment may constitute a model of interest to advance the understanding of the problem.This study proposes the theoretical principles for the selection of a sample of horse races to study the relationship between air pollutants and performance. These criteria were then applied to an original dataset comparing the correlations between these variables obtained in “Handicap” versus “Conditional” type races. Methods: The mean concentration of pollutants during the six hours prior to the race and the speed of the test were determined in 441 official races at a racecourse in Santiago, Chile, during the summer and winter months of 2012. Using layout, track condition and distance (1000, 1100 and 1200 m) as criteria, a homogeneous group of races (“Handicap”; n = 214) versus a heterogeneous group (“Conditional”; n = 95) were compared using simple correlations (Spearman’s test). Results: Race speed was related to greater levels of PM10, PM2.5, NO2, NO and SO2 and it was positively related to O3, a trend that was observed in the 1000, 1100 m races and in the total “Handicap” group. Similar results were observed only in 1000 m for the “Conditional” group with lower Rho, except for PM10 and PM2.5. The total races of the conditional group showed lower Rho values and significant associations of the same trend for CO, NO2, NO and SO2. Conclusions: Horse races between 1000 and 1200 m of the “Handicap” type appear to be an interesting group to study the relationship between air pollutants and the performance of racehorses. In the future, our observations should be expanded to other distances and other types of races.

Influence of advanced footwear technology on sub-2 hour marathon and other top running performances

Abstract In 2019, Eliud Kipchoge ran a sub-two hour marathon wearing Nike’s Alphafly shoes. Despite being the fastest marathon time ever recorded, it wasn’t officially recognized as race conditions were tightly controlled to maximize his success. Besides, Kipchoge’s use of Alphafly shoes was controversial, with some experts claiming that they might have provided an unfair competitive advantage. In this work, we assess the potential influence of advanced footwear technology and the likelihood of a sub-two hour marathon in official races, by studying the evolution of running top performances from 2001 to 2019 for long distances ranging from 10 km to marathon. The analysis is performed using extreme value theory, a field of statistics dealing with analysis of rare events. We find a significant evidence of performance-enhancement effect with a 10% increase of the probability that a new world record for marathon-men discipline is set in 2021. However, results suggest that achieving a sub-two hour marathon in an official race in 2021 is still very unlikely, and exceeds 10% probability only by 2025.

Prediction of 2000-m on-water rowing performance with measures derived from instrumented boats.

Rowing instrumentation systems provide measures of stroke power, stroke rate, and boat velocity during rowing races, but how well these measures predict race performance has not been reported previously. Data were collected per stroke from 45 2000-m races using Peach PowerLine and OptimEye S5 GPS units. The boat classes assessed were nine male singles, eight female singles, three male pairs, and six female pairs. Random effects and residuals from general linear mixed modeling of stroke velocity adjusted for stroke power, stroke rate, and mean headwind provided measures interpreted as technical efficiency, race conditions, and stroke-velocity variability. These measures, along with mean race power, mean stroke rate, and mean headwind were then included in multiple linear regressions to predict race velocity from official race times. Effects were assessed for 2 SD changes in predictors and interpreted using interval hypothesis tests. Effects of mean race power, mean stroke rate, and mean headwind on race velocity ranged from small to extremely large and were mostly decisively substantial. Effects of technical efficiency and race conditions ranged from trivial to extremely large but were generally unclear, while stroke-velocity variability had trivial-small and mostly unclear effects. Prediction error was small to moderate and decisively substantial. Men's pairs lacked sufficient data for analysis. On-water rowing race performance can be predicted with mean race values of power, stroke rate, and headwind. Estimates from stroke data are potentially useful predictors but require impractical numbers of boats and races to reduce their uncertainty.