Office Of The Director Of National Intelligence Research Articles

Will the Nile River Turn into a Lake? The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance (GERD) Dam Case-Study

Abstract Today, many scholars agree that changes in water availability triggered by population growth, economic development and climate change impact will increase competition between water users, making conflict more likely, especially in those countries that lack the financial, technical and governance capacities to address water-related challenge and/or in river basin riparian states that share common water resources. As early as 2012, the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), analysing the water issue at a regional and global level, concluded that, while water-related state-on-state conflict is unlikely to occur during the next ten years, the problem is projected to get worse in the near future. Starting from the historical reconstruction and the geopolitical repercussions of the water dispute in the Nile River Basin and focusing on the case of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), this article aims to analyse the political, socio-economic and environmental changes that are affecting upstream countries and to detect how these new dynamics are challenging both the balance of power and the ongoing cooperation process in the region.

Critiquing the U.S. characterization, attribution and retaliation laws and policies for cyberattacks

This paper critiques the U.S. characterization, attribution, and retaliation laws and policies for cyberattacks. Characterization, attribution, and retaliation are part of the most important aspects of responding to cyberattacks. The U.S. does not have a clearly defined characterization process, other than the Government Accountability Office (GAO), Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS)’s Threat Table which characterizes the different motivations for carrying out cyberattacks by cyber threat actors. This Threat Table has hardly changed since 2005, yet, cyber threat actors continually develop their tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs) and conceal their real motivations for carrying out cyberattacks. Like characterization, the U.S. does not have a known attribution procedure, nor is a single agency tasked with the function of attribution. Different agencies – the Department of Justice (DoJ), the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), the National Cyber Investigative Joint Task Force (NCIJTF), and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) – and even private sectors companies, participate in the attribution process. This invites potential contradiction and interference with the attribution process. Though, unlike characterization and attribution, the U.S. retaliation policies are contained in different documents, none has the preciseness required to be effective. This paper thus, makes recommendations for each of these aspects of cyberattack response.

Citrullination of a phage-displayed human peptidome library reveals the fine specificities of rheumatoid arthritis-associated autoantibodies.

BackgroundPost-translational modifications (PTMs) on proteins can be targeted by antibodies associated with autoimmunity. Despite a growing appreciation for their intrinsic role in disease, there is a lack of highly multiplexed serological assays to characterize the fine specificities of PTM-directed autoantibodies.MethodsIn this study, we used the programmable phage display technology, Phage ImmunoPrecipitation Sequencing (PhIP-Seq), to profile rheumatoid arthritis (RA) associated anti-citrullinated protein antibody (ACPA) reactivities.FindingsUsing both unmodified and peptidylarginine deiminase (PAD)-modified phage display libraries consisting of ~250,000 overlapping 90 amino acid peptide tiles spanning the human proteome, PTM PhIP-Seq robustly identified antibodies to citrulline-dependent epitopes.InterpretationPTM PhIP-Seq was used to quantify key differences among RA patients, including PAD isoform specific ACPA profiles, and thus represents a powerful tool for proteome-scale antibody-binding analyses.FundingThis research is based upon work supported in part by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA). The views and conclusions contained herein are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as necessarily representing the official policies, either expressed or implied, of ODNI, IARPA, or the US Government. The US Government is authorized to reproduce and distribute reprints for governmental purposes notwithstanding any copyright annotation therein. This study was made possible by a National Institute of General Medical Sciences (NIGMS) grant R01 GM136724 (HBL). MFK was supported by the National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases (NIAMS) grant T32AR048522. ED was supported by the Rheumatology Research Foundation.

Not too deep: Privacy, resistance, and the incorporation of social media in background checks

In May 2016, the United States Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) issued “Security Executive Agent Directive 5” (SEAD-5) (U.S. ODNI, 2016) authorizing the collection, use, and retention of social media information for the personnel security clearance process (PSCP), a process put in place to screen applicants for eligibility for national security and public trust positions. The incorporation of social media was a watershed moment for this process as social media, and even information from the entire Internet, had not been allowed into the investigation process before. The integration was not without resistance to the implementation, though, and backstage concerns about privacy emerged in Congressional hearings. What is most interesting to note, however, is that the resistance was for the most part in support of privacy for the potential employees of whom were receiving the check and the government’s obligations for the information collection; however, there was little, if any, mention of deeper, possibly problematic privacy concerns for the social media platforms and their mediated connections that co-create a second, derivative type of content beyond the access of their users. This paper examines the hearing “Incorporating social media into federal background investigations” in response to the SEAD-5 to see what the U.S. Congress did and did not discuss at the hearing and explores potential explanations for the inclusions/omissions, ultimately answering how those in charge of policies could have overlook deeper privacy complexities, and evaluating what this can mean for government, privacy, and policy researchers.

The impact of AI on intelligence analysis: tackling issues of collaboration, algorithmic transparency, accountability, and management

In January 2019, the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) released a new strategy on the use of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies in U.S. intelligence.1 The report ca...

Analytical Standards in the Intelligence Community: Are Standards Professionalized Enough?

Analytical standards and its impact is a topic compelling the U.S. Intelligence Community (IC) toward a discipline of proficiency and structure comparable to other professional fields is an evolutionary process. Following the creation of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), Intelligence Community Directives (ICDs) became the feature through which guidance and a consensus on a topic became methods of aligning entities within the IC. The research questions about the usefulness of ODNI’s ICDs on the individual analyst and IC member agencies as the intelligence profession emerges are intriguing. Therefore, practitioners should consider several approaches and criteria to evaluate analytical standards. This article outlines methods for determining the analytical standards and the impact standards creation has had on intelligence analysis, furthering the professional development of the discipline through a qualitative methodology using a descriptive and explanatory approach based on an organizational theory foundation. Using multiple case studies and a structured approach evidence supports the creation of standards while examining the various professional structures that can provide guidance.

Associations Between Peaks of Foodborne Infections and Food Recalls

Abstract Objectives Food delivery and supply chains represent complex dynamic systems susceptible to pathogen introduction. However, seasonal infections are rarely compared with the timing of food recalls. Gaps between peak infections and recalls illustrate inefficient food inspection and monitoring. We use seasonality features (peak timing and amplitude) to examine associations between peaks of pathogen infectiousness and food recalls. Methods Monthly counts of 3 foodborne infections (Salmonella, Listeria, and Shiga toxin-producing E.coli) were abstracted from the CDC's public database, FoodNet Fast, for 10 representative states (CA, CO, CT, GA, MD, MN, NM, NY, OR, TN) from 1996–2018. We applied Negative Binomial harmonic regression models with the δ-method to derive peak timing and amplitude estimates (with confidence intervals). Food recalls were extracted using the United States Department of Agriculture's (USDA) Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) Recall Case Archive. We extracted recall dates and durations for each infection in each state. We compared lagged associations between infection peaks and recall dates using Spearman correlations. Results Seasonal peaks of Salmonella and Shiga Toxin-producing E.Coli (STEC) are tightly clustered (7.79 [7.71, 7.87], and 7.80 [7.65, 7.95], respectively) while Listeria falls later in August (8.35 [8.05, 8.65]). Peak timing estimates were positively synchronized between New York and Connecticut for Listeria (ρ = 0.780, P = 0.001), and between Georgia and Tennessee for STEC (ρ = 0.666, P = 0.009) indicating possible regional hotspots. From 1996–2018, inspection recalls tended to lag behind peaks of confirmed infections for all infections by 1–2 months, with most recalls occurring during August and September annually. Conclusions Measurements of infection seasonality coupled with food recall information shows lagged associations between population infectiousness and supply chain reporting. This suggests the need for improved food inspection scheduling and monitoring to minimize fiscal and food waste losses. Funding Sources The Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA), via 2017–17,072,100,002.

Accelerometer-Measured Sustained MVPA Is Related To Higher Decision-Making Competence Among Young Adults

More competent decision makers report greater success in avoiding negative decision outcomes irrespective of general cognitive ability. While physically active young adults show more optimal executive functions, the relationship between daily moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) patterns and decision-making competence (DMC) remains under-examined. PURPOSE: In this study, we assessed the relationship between accelerometer-measured sporadic and sustained MVPA to DMC in young adults. METHODS: We analyzed pre-intervention data from 220 participants (115 (52%) females, Mage=24.3 ±5.4 yrs, BMI=24.4 ± 4.0 kg/m2) from the INSIGHT randomized controlled trial. MVPA was measured over 7 days with a hip-worn wGT3X-BT accelerometer. Valid wear time was defined as ≥4 days, ≥10 hrs/d. Daily (min/d), bouts of sporadic (<10 consecutive min) and sustained MVPA (≥10 consecutive min; frequency and min/d) were estimated using NHANES cut points. DMC was measured with the Adult-Decision Making Competence (A-DMC) battery and expressed as individual subtest scores and an A-DMC index (z-score). The relationships between MVPA and A-DMC variables were assessed with Spearman’s rho controlling for wear time, age, sex, education, intelligence, fat free VO2max, BMI and sedentary time (ST; <100 counts/min). RESULTS:After controlling for daily MVPA, frequency and time spent in sustained MVPA bouts were positively related to the ability to recognize social norms (ρs=[0.15; 0.16], Ps≤0.04) and ignore unrecoverable costs when considering future decision outcomes (ρs=[0.14; 0.15], Ps≤0.04). In contrast, neither sporadic nor daily MVPA were related to A-DMC subtests (Ps≤0.08). CONCLUSION: The quality of decision making varied primarily as a function of sustained MVPA. Young adults who engaged in more sustained MVPA were able to use their experience more effectively and make more rational choices to optimize decision outcomes. Our data reveal a novel relationship between MVPA patterns and a distinct set of higher order cognitive skills which are relevant to real-world decisions. Funding: Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA); Contract 2014-13121700004

Developing a Dual-Track Modeling Approach for Increased Understanding of Sensors and their Forecasting Capabilities

Event Abstract Back to Event Developing a Dual-Track Modeling Approach for Increased Understanding of Sensors and their Forecasting Capabilities Raquel C. Galvan-Garza1*, Peter B. Bryan1*, Amanda E. Kraft1, Alison M. Perez1, Matthew J. Pava1, William D. Casebeer1 and Matthias D. Ziegler1 1 Lockheed Martin (United States), United States Forecasting human behavior from sensor-derived biometrics poses a modeling challenge encountered across statistical domains: balancing interpretability against model power. On one hand, polynomial models derived from literature review and a priori assumptions of feature interactions are transparent (i.e., explained variance can be meaningfully interpreted in the original input space) but fail to capture higher-order interactions that were not explicitly predicted. On the other, black-box methods from machine learning are equipped to successfully capture this variance but sacrifice explainability. Here, we evaluate a dual-track approach for modeling of human state. The first track (theory-driven) consists of white-box modeling methodologies while the second track (data-driven) consists of a black-box model, namely a recurrent neural network. The data sets we use in this presentation focus on physiological, interpersonal, and environmental factors; however, we are beginning to use the same methodology with multi-sensor studies that include neuroimaging techniques such as fNIRS and EEG. We will discuss details on how we 1) create theory-driven models for estimating variables such as subjective stress, anxiety, affect, personality, and job performance, 2) create data-driven models using complex neural networks in parallel, and 3) adapt the theory-driven model to include new connections discovered by the data-driven model using a systematic automated approach. Using methods including local sensitivity analysis, we attempt to extract variance-capturing, low-dimensional feature combinations from the data-driven track to augment theory-driven models. We conclude with a discussion of the respective advantages and disadvantages of each track, a summary of challenges intrinsic to this method, and an evaluation of the successes and failures of our complementary modeling approach. The research is based upon work supported by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA), via 2017-17042800004. The views and conclusions contained herein are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as necessarily representing the official policies or endorsements, either expressed or implied, of the ODNI, IARPA, or the U.S. Government. The U.S. Government is authorized to reproduce and distribute reprints for Governmental purposes notwithstanding any copyright annotation thereon. Keywords: biometrics, forecasting human behavior, Model selection, theory-driven modeling, Data-driven Modeling, machine learning applied to neuroscience Conference: 2nd International Neuroergonomics Conference, Philadelphia, PA, United States, 27 Jun - 29 Jun, 2018. Presentation Type: Oral Presentation Topic: Neuroergonomics Citation: Galvan-Garza RC, Bryan PB, Kraft AE, Perez AM, Pava MJ, Casebeer WD and Ziegler MD (2019). Developing a Dual-Track Modeling Approach for Increased Understanding of Sensors and their Forecasting Capabilities. Conference Abstract: 2nd International Neuroergonomics Conference. doi: 10.3389/conf.fnhum.2018.227.00029 Copyright: The abstracts in this collection have not been subject to any Frontiers peer review or checks, and are not endorsed by Frontiers. They are made available through the Frontiers publishing platform as a service to conference organizers and presenters. The copyright in the individual abstracts is owned by the author of each abstract or his/her employer unless otherwise stated. Each abstract, as well as the collection of abstracts, are published under a Creative Commons CC-BY 4.0 (attribution) licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) and may thus be reproduced, translated, adapted and be the subject of derivative works provided the authors and Frontiers are attributed. For Frontiers’ terms and conditions please see https://www.frontiersin.org/legal/terms-and-conditions. Received: 30 Mar 2018; Published Online: 27 Sep 2019. * Correspondence: PhD. Raquel C Galvan-Garza, Lockheed Martin (United States), Bethesda, United States, raquel.c.galvan@lmco.com Mr. Peter B Bryan, Lockheed Martin (United States), Bethesda, United States, peterbbryan@gmail.com Login Required This action requires you to be registered with Frontiers and logged in. To register or login click here. Abstract Info Abstract The Authors in Frontiers Raquel C Galvan-Garza Peter B Bryan Amanda E Kraft Alison M Perez Matthew J Pava William D Casebeer Matthias D Ziegler Google Raquel C Galvan-Garza Peter B Bryan Amanda E Kraft Alison M Perez Matthew J Pava William D Casebeer Matthias D Ziegler Google Scholar Raquel C Galvan-Garza Peter B Bryan Amanda E Kraft Alison M Perez Matthew J Pava William D Casebeer Matthias D Ziegler PubMed Raquel C Galvan-Garza Peter B Bryan Amanda E Kraft Alison M Perez Matthew J Pava William D Casebeer Matthias D Ziegler Related Article in Frontiers Google Scholar PubMed Abstract Close Back to top Javascript is disabled. Please enable Javascript in your browser settings in order to see all the content on this page.

The President’s Daily Brief: Managing the Relationship between Intelligence and the Policymaker

WHEN WE THINK ABOUT THE INFORMATION the president and other national security policymakers need in today’s complex and ambiguous world, two considerations come to mind: first, ensuring that they have access to the information they need when they need it, and second, ensuring that they receive advice on what decision to make based on that information. The intelligence community provides the former, and policy advisers provide the latter.1 As the adage goes, never shall the twain meet, as facts are the purview of the intelligence community, while beliefs are the purview of politicians.2 However, these two communities—intelligence and policy—regularly come into intimate contact with each other through the President’s Daily Brief (PDB), a highly classified and agenda-informing document consisting of a set of short articles contained in a “briefing book” authored by intelligence analysts working in the intelligence community and under the auspices and direction of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI).

National Security in America: Over-Abundance of Caution &amp; Lack of Practicality

After 9/11, the American intelligence community (IC) grew from few to uncountable, and the money allocated to the community could only be guessed at, given the secret and other funds that accompanied allocated funds for expanding intelligence capability. Out of this spiraling confusion, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) was born to coordinate the disparate efforts of known and lesser-known intelligence organizations. However, the DHS could not handle the tremendous IC activity by himself, and by 2010, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), the Top Intelligence Officer in America was additionally established. Most of the work in bringing the IC together has been done by the DHS. It seems to have been successful in identifying the directions from which a threat may enter into the country. Where the effort is lacking is when terror comes from so-called “home-grown” or unaffiliated terrorists. For these, a neighborly approach is best, and can be accomplished with minimal investment. The DHS has implemented a reporting system, together with reporting training, which will allow local law enforcement personnel to participate in the national security effort by logging their observations and disseminating them throughout the DHS system. That system is designed not just to collect information, but to share it with participating agencies (including local law enforcement). Part of this initiative is the “See Something, Say Something” campaign that involves private citizens in the national security effort. Of all of the ODNI and DHS efforts, the private citizen observation campaign holds the most realistic promise and provides the best lesson for nations that would learn from the American terrorism response experience.

The Sexual Dimorphic Relationship Between Dietary Fiber Intake and Visceral Adipose Tissue

Accumulation of visceral adipose tissue (VAT) has been mechanistically implicated in compromised metabolic health and increased risk for cardiovascular disease. However, sex is an important determinant of fat tissue compartmentalization or distribution. Substantial differences in VAT between males and females emerge early in life and are sustained throughout adulthood. These differences are thought to contribute to the disproportionate prevalence and incidence rates of cardiovascular diseases between males and females. Thus, it is plausible that relationships between dietary behaviors and VAT are influenced by sex as well. Specifically, meeting dietary guidelines for fiber intake remains a prominent feature of public health policy towards obesity prevention. Although the recommendations for fiber intake are greater among males (38g/d) compared to females (25g/d), the extent to which meeting the sex‐specific dietary fiber recommendations protects against VAT remains unclear. This study aimed to elucidate the differential association between dietary fiber intake and VAT among male and female adults. Healthy adults (N=318; 155 females, aged 18–44 y) underwent Dual Energy X‐ray Absorptiometry (DXA) to estimate VAT. 3‐day food records were used to assess daily fiber intake. The proportion of daily sex‐specific fiber recommendation met (%Fiber) was used as the primary dietary variable. Physical activity was recorded among a subsample of participants (n=269) and was assessed as steps/day using an accelerometer (Actigraph GT3X+) worn for at least 4 days (minimum 8 hours/day). As expected, VAT was significantly greater among males (P&lt;0.01). Total fiber intake was not different between males and females (P=0.62). However, only 6% of participants met their recommended fiber intake. Nevertheless, %Fiber intake was greater among females (P&lt;0.01) by 23%, indicating that males consumed significantly less fiber, relative to their daily recommended intake. Among males, VAT was inversely related to %Fiber (r=−0.18, P=0.01) intake. This relationship persisted even following adjustment of age and physical activity using partial correlations. However, no significant associations between fiber intake and VAT (r=0.06, P=0.23) were observed among females. In conclusion, these results suggest that fiber was independently and inversely related to visceral fat accumulation in a sexually dimorphic manner. These findings have important public health implications because they suggest that chronically lower fiber intake or failure to meet fiber recommendations may disproportionately compromise metabolic health among adult men. Future research is needed to determine the source of these differential associations and whether interventions targeted at meeting dietary fiber intake recommendations provide adequate protective effects against visceral fat accumulation.Support or Funding InformationThe research is based upon work supported by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA), via Contract 2014‐13121700004 to the University of Illinois at Urbana‐Champaign. The views and conclusions contained herein are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as necessarily representing the official policies or endorsements, either expressed or implied, of the ODNI, IARPA, or the U.S. Government. The U.S. Government is authorized to reproduce and distribute reprints for Governmental purposes notwithstanding any copyright annotation thereon.

Has the ODNI Improved U.S. Intelligence Analysis?

The Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act of 2004 (IRTPA) created a Director of National Intelligence (DNI) and ordered him and his Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI)...

A Fisher consistent multiclass loss function with variable margin on positive examples

The authors acknowledge the referees' comments and suggestions that helped to improve the manuscript. This research is based upon work supported in part by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA), via the Federal Bureau of Investigations, Finance Division. The views and conclusions contained herein are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as necessarily representing the official policies or endorsements, either expressed or implied, of ODNI, IARPA, or the U.S. Government. The U.S. Government is authorized to reproduce and distribute reprints for Governmental purposes notwithstanding any copyright annotation thereon. I.R-L acknowledges partial support by Spain's grants TIN2013-42351-P (MINECO) and S2013/ICE-2845 CASI-CAM-CM (Comunidad de Madrid). The authors gratefully acknowledge the use of the facilities of Centro de Computacion Cientifica (CCC) at Universidad Autonoma de Madrid.

A Conversation with James R. Clapper, Jr., The Director Of National Intelligence in the United States

In this previously unpublished interview, James R. Clapper, Jr., the current Director of National Intelligence (DNI) in the United States, discusses his experiences as spymaster leading an Intelligence Community widely viewed as organizationally decentralized and criticized in the past for failing to work together harmoniously. Director Clapper argues that the Community has become much more structurally integrated, and that the Office of the DNI (ODNI) provides an opportunity for leadership that is more effective than outside critics have acknowledged. I conducted this interview in August 2014 at his office near Tyson's Corner in North Arlington, Virginia. It was a time of rising unrest in the world, with elite Russian troops carrying out forays across the border into Ukraine, a Middle East terrorist faction known as ISIS gathering momentum in a march from Syria toward Baghdad, and with recurring violence that continued to plague the relationship between the Hamas faction in Palestine and the state of Israel.