Pricing Of Offerings Research Articles

Accuracy of Relative Valuation Methods in Predicting the Offer Price of Indonesian IPO Stocks

The increasing Initial Public Offerings (IPO) trend in Indonesia has created many investment opportunities for institutional and retail investors. However, multiple valuation methods often result in varying IPO price predictions, leading to uncertainty and confusion among investors. This study aims to assess the effectiveness of relative valuation methods in predicting IPO offer prices, focusing on widely adopted methods due to their simplicity and accessibility. The research evaluates three popular relative valuation metrics: the price-to-book (P/B) ratio, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, and the price-to-sales (P/S) ratio. By analyzing companies that went public in Indonesia in 2023 and utilizing average financial ratios from the preceding year, the study seeks to determine which method provides the most accurate price predictions. The findings indicate that the P/B ratio is the most reliable method, achieving an average absolute error of 51.1%. This suggests that the P/B method minimizes valuation errors more effectively than P/E and P/S ratios. Moreover, regression models' P/B ratio demonstrates the highest adjusted R² value of 0.781, further validating its predictive accuracy. The implications of this study are significant for investors and financial analysts who rely on relative valuation methods to make informed decisions about IPO investments. By highlighting the P/B ratio's superior performance in predicting IPO offer prices, this research contributes to the ongoing discourse on valuation methodologies and their practical application in emerging markets like Indonesia.

The power of prediction with Google searches and social media posts: Retail investor interest and IPO pricing

This paper investigates the association between retail investors’ online activity and the pricing of initial public offerings (IPOs). We utilize data from Google Trends and StockTwits to analyze price revision for 901 U.S. IPOs, and find that the online search count, social media post count, and post sentiment are positively associated with IPO pricing. One-standard-deviation increases in these variables correspond to price revision increases of 9.02 %, 50.73 %, and 70.22 %, respectively. Additionally, online search plays a more significant role in influencing IPO price revision when social media discussions about a specific IPO exhibit higher sentiment inequality among participants.

Pricing and performance of initial public offerings: directions for future research

Purpose This study aims to outline the research field of initial public offerings (IPOs) pricing and performance by combining bibliometric analysis with a systematic literature review process. Design/methodology/approach The study uses over three decades of IPO publication records (1989–2020) from Scopus and Web of Science databases. An analysis of keyword co-occurrence and bibliometric coupling was used to gain insights into the evolution of IPO literature. Findings The study categorized the IPO research field into four primary clusters: IPO pricing and short-run behaviour, IPO performance and influence of intermediaries, venture capital financing and top management and political affiliations and litigation risks. The results offer a framework for delineating research advancements at different stages of IPOs and illustrate the growing interest of researchers in IPOs in recent years. The study identified future research potential in the areas of corporate governance, earning management and investor sentiments related to IPO performance. Similarly, the study highlighted the opportunity to test multiple theoretical frameworks on alternative investment platforms (SME IPO platforms) operating under distinct regulatory environments. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper represents the first instance of using both bibliometric and systematic review to quantitatively and qualitatively review the articles published in the area of IPO pricing and performance from 1989 to 2020.

Offer Price and Post-IPO Ownership Structure

In an initial public offering (IPO) the firm can set the offer price of its shares, based on the valuation of the firm, by changing the number of shares. This study uses stock ownership records and hand-collected IPO data to analyze the offer prices, the underpricing of IPO shares (measured as the initial return, IR) and the relationship with the post-IPO ownership structure. Specifically, the paper focuses on individual IPO investors. The results show that for the lowest priced IPOs the IR is significantly higher priced IPOs. Furthermore, for the low-priced IPOs, there is a negative relationship between offer price and breadth of ownership. This implies that stocks with a low price can attract more investors than stocks with higher offer prices. However, for high-priced IPOs the relationship is positive, suggesting that also the IPOs with highest price attract more investors. Overall, this study shows that the offer price of an IPO firm may have a moderate effect on its post-IPO ownership structure.

Social capital and the pricing of initial public offerings

Using a large sample of 4,892 IPOs in the United States, we establish that the level of social capital in the county of the IPO firm's headquarters is negatively associated with the level of IPO underpricing. The results hold for a range of robustness tests, including those addressing endogeneity. Additionally, the relation between social capital and IPO underpricing is weaker among IPO firms with less information uncertainty and stronger for IPO firms with more agency problems. We also show that social capital affects IPO underpricing through changing IPO firms’ earnings management activities. Further, high social capital is associated with a higher likelihood of the IPO being oversubscribed, higher total proceeds raised in the IPO, a greater number of IPO shares issued, and lower total IPO administrative fees. Social capital also influences seasoned equity offerings (SEOs), in the form of lowering SEO underpricing and SEO discount. Overall, our results demonstrate the importance of social capital as an informal contracting mechanism in enhancing the pricing and performance of firm securities issuance.

Pre-IPO Financial Performance and Offer Price Estimation: Evidence from India

The primary focus of this paper is to develop an empirical model to study the relationship between key Financial Performance Indicators and IPO Offer Prices. It seeks to assist Indian IPO investors to make more informed decisions by advancing their knowledge about relevant Pre-IPO Financial Performance Indicators that are effective predictors of Offer Price. The purpose is this study is to provide all the stakeholders with an approach to evaluate the Offer Price of IPOs. This will help the stakeholders to overcome pricing anomalies. The companies listed in the National Stock Exchange of India between the financial years 2015–2016 to 2020–2021 are taken as the sample of the study. The secondary data are analyzed by constructing a multiple linear regression model. This study uses a range of fundamental factors related to financial performance in a single framework to demonstrate that an IPO Offer Price can be assessed by its Pre-IPO Financial Performance. The findings of this study validate the objectives of the model constructed. This research shows that the Pre-IPO Financial Performance has an influential role in explaining the IPO offering price. The results of the study show that variables such as Net Asset Value (NAV), Return on Assets (ROA), Profit after Tax (PAT), and Return on Net Worth (RONW) have a substantial impact on IPO Offering Price. The findings of the research will assist IPO issuers in pricing their offerings better and more competitively. Furthermore, this study will also minimize the gap between offering and listing prices to prevent speculative failure. The study will help investors with minimal resources to evaluate the value of any IPO issue. An IPO’s value can be fairly estimated, and investors can decide whether the issue is worth investing in or not.

Long-Run Price and Operating Performance of Initial Public Offerings in Borsa Istanbul

Long-Run Price and Operating Performance of Initial Public Offerings in Borsa Istanbul

Major drivers for the rising dominance of the hyperscalers in the infrastructure as a service market segment

The rapidly growing worldwide market for infrastructure as a service (IaaS) is increasingly dominated by four hyperscalers. On the flip side, the market share and number of regional IaaS providers have been declining steadily over the past years. Astonishingly, this fight for market shares has been largely neglected by the research community. The goal of this study is to identify the major drivers for this market development. To this end, 18 exploratory expert interviews were conducted with high-ranking employees of various successful regional IaaS providers in Germany. The results indicate that the central driver is the significant lower price of the hyperscalers' offerings. Beyond that, eight additional important drivers have been identified. This study sheds light on the IaaS market and opens up future in-depth investigations. Regional IaaS providers can use these insights to develop strategies and business models for counteracting or at least decelerating the hyperscalers' growing dominance.

Bargain effectiveness in differentiated store environments: The role of store affect, processing fluency, and store familiarity

Two main types of value have been established in the retail literature: merchandise value based on the quality and price of a store's offerings and differentiation value based on the extent of atmospheric cues in the environment. However, it is not clear what happens when a store offers both types of value to a high degree. We investigate how offering a bargain (or price cut) affects consumer responses for high and low differentiation store environments. In two studies, using a simulated store environment in a behavioural laboratory, we find that the presence of bargains in a highly differentiated store environment negatively influences store affect and, in turn, approach behaviour. This effect, however, only holds true for low familiarity stores and can be explained by processing fluency theory. Consequently, retailers focusing on store environment differentiation should reconsider their use of bargains.

Uncertainty, prospectus content, and the pricing of initial public offerings

This study reports evidence on the relation between the pre-market due diligence and book-building processes in determining initial public offering (IPO) share prices. The evidence suggests that there is a complementarity between these processes that has not been discussed in the literature. We find that when there is greater uncertainty regarding the value of the shares, more information of the type that investors are likely to have a comparative advantage in evaluating tends to be included in the offering prospectus prior to the roadshow. The increase in these disclosures is, in turn, associated with greater information discovery during book-building.

Democracy and the pricing of initial public offerings around the world

We find a negative relation between democracy and initial public offering (IPO) underpricing for a sample of 23,050 IPOs across 45 countries. The effect of democracy on underpricing is weaker for IPOs audited by Big 4 auditing firms, backed by venture capital firms, and with better disclosure specificity of use of proceeds. Democracy exerts a larger influence on underpricing for firms with higher agency problems, in countries with weaker institutional quality or shareholder protection, and during periods of high investor sentiment or economic policy uncertainty. Overall, our results highlight the importance of democracy in reducing IPO underpricing around the world.

Long-Run Price and Operating Performance of Initial Public Offerings in Borsa Istanbul

Long-Run Price and Operating Performance of Initial Public Offerings in Borsa Istanbul

Price Discovery from Offer Price to Opening Price of Initial Public Offerings

We examine the price discovery process of initial public offerings (IPOs) from the offer price to the first day’s open price. Stock exchanges have made major changes to the IPO preopening process, and introduced an open auction process in which all investors are able to enter orders and participate in price discovery. The time spent in preopening has increased for IPOs over the years, with an average of 77.23 minutes in 2020. The same pattern is not found for special purpose acquisition (SPAC) offerings. The percentage of the day’s volume executed in the IPO Cross is much higher, at 15.3%, than the approximately 1% for non-IPO stocks. Each phase of preopening contributes to incremental price discovery, with almost all of the price adjustment occurring during preopening. However, for “cold” IPOs, half of the price adjustment takes place after the market opens. Even though participation by retail investors has increased during preopening, their role in price discovery is limited. Our results suggest that institutional investors use the IPO Cross to sell shares. We also find that underwriters take advantage of changes implemented after the Facebook IPO that gave them a bigger role in deciding when to release an IPO for trading.

Social Capital and the Pricing of Initial Public Offerings

Using a sample of 4,892 IPOs in the United States from 1990 to 2019, we establish that the level of social capital in the county of the IPO firm’s headquarters is negatively associated with the level of IPO underpricing. The relation holds for a range of robustness tests, including those addressing endogeneity. Additionally, the relation is weaker among IPO firms with less information uncertainty, and stronger for IPO firms with more agency problems. Overall, our results demonstrate the importance of social capital as an informal contracting mechanism in enhancing the pricing and performance of IPOs.

Effects of IPO Offer Price Ranges on Initial Subscription, Initial Turnover and Ownership Structure—Evidence from Indian IPO Market

In this paper, we establish the significance and effects of initial public offer (IPO) offer price ranges on subscription, initial trading, and post-IPO ownership structures. The primary market in India provides a unique setting for estimating the effect of various initial public offer (IPO) price ranges and IPO issue factors on the initial demand for an IPO among investors, measured by full IPO subscription/oversubscription, initial turnover (liquidity), and the post-IPO listing ownership structure among investors (ownership). For the IPO pre-listing stage, this study uses firth logistic regression to estimate the effect of various IPO offer price ranges (low to high) and various IPO issue factors on the full subscription/oversubscription of an IPO in each investor category. For the post-IPO listing stage, the study uses OLS regression to estimate the effect of various IPO offer price ranges (low to high) and various IPO issue factors on the initial trading ratio (IPO listing day trading) and the ownership percentage between institutional and individual investors. We find that all investor categories show a lesser likelihood for full subscription or oversubscription of an IPO issue at the lowest range of IPO offer prices. At the post-listing stage, the results indicate a diverse IPO offer price range in which individuals and institutions maximize their respective ownership holdings after the IPO listing. The results further show that lower promoter holdings diffuse higher ownership among individual shareholders by targeting lower IPO offer prices, thus increasing control.

Terrorist attacks, investor sentiment, and the pricing of initial public offerings

Using terrorist attacks as exogenous shocks to investor sentiment, we study the impact of investor sentiment on initial public offering (IPO) pricing. IPOs listed within the 30-day period following terrorist attacks, on average, experience lower first-day returns. The documented impact of terrorist attacks is magnified when there is greater IPO valuation uncertainty and when the terrorist attacks are more salient to investors, while mitigated for IPOs “certified” by reputable intermediaries. We also show that the affected IPOs, on average, have more pessimistic media tone in the post-attack/pre-listing day period. The affected IPOs also tend to have lower levels of price revisions, subscriptions, primary share revisions, and total proceeds. Collectively, our findings underscore the salience of investor sentiment in shaping IPO outcomes.

Putting Numbers on the Coins: The Pricing and Performance of Initial Coin Offerings

This paper examines the performance of cryptocurrencies issued in initial coin offerings (ICOs) over a three-year period after the initial exchange listing. Average (median) ICO underpricing amounts to 15% (3%), even though 4 out of 10 ICOs destroy value on the first trading day. Liquidity, market capitalization, and high-low price ratios predict returns. Long-run buy-and-hold returns are positive for the mean and negative for the median. For holding periods between one and twenty-four months, the median ICO depreciates by 30%. Evidently, there is substantial positive skewness in the cryptocurrency market. Further, a size effect emerges from the data as an empirical regularity: Large ICOs are more often overpriced and underperform in the long run.

Corporate Governance and the Pricing of Initial Public Offerings: Evidence from Global Board Reforms

We document that global board reforms are associated with a significant reduction in IPO underpricing. The effect is amplified for IPOs with greater agency problems and mitigated for IPOs certified by reputable intermediaries, IPOs with greater disclosure specificity, and IPOs in countries with better shareholder protection and stringent financial reporting regulations. Furthermore, global board reforms have led to an improvement in the long-term market performance, proceeds, and subscription level of IPOs, and have enhanced board independence in the issuing firms. Our findings suggest that global board reforms have strengthened board oversight in the issuing firms, leading to less underpriced IPOs.

Offer Price Information and the Exercise of Market Power: The Effect of the Publication of the Historical Trading Report on Competition in the Alberta Electricity Market

This paper considers the effect of the publication of offer price information on unilateral market power in Alberta’s electricity market. This market is an hourly auction characterized by repeated interaction among a small number of producers, common knowledge of costs and production capabilities, and price inelastic demand. For the period July 13, 2000 to May 18, 2017, offer prices for each hour were published by the market operator, the Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO), in the Historical Trading Report (HTR) after the end of the hour. Using counter-factual analysis from 2010 to 2015 (52,584 hours), the paper finds that the effect of offer price changes after the HTR publication was to raise the average hourly price for electricity in Alberta by $2.48/MWh or about 4.2%, which raised the cost of electricity for Alberta consumers during the six-year period by approximately $1.14 billion. Based on an earlier version of this paper, the AESO was instructed by Alberta’s utilities regulator to cease publication of the HTR.

The Pricing of New Corporate Debt Issues

Using computational linguistics, we examine whether risk factor disclosure in the offering prospectus provides unique information in the pricing of initial public offerings of bonds. Both credit ratings and initial yields are related to risks that discuss the financial condition of the firm, its indebtedness, covenants, and repayment. Aftermarket yields are more sensitive to risk when traded in the Rule 144A private market than in the publicly-traded market. However, the effect of disclosure on bond outcomes is similar for both public and private firms in either market. Thus, mandated disclosure provides valuable information to both public and private market participants.