Off-grid Electrification Projects Research Articles

Lowering risk intolerance to unlock private investments in renewable energy-based rural electrification

As public resources are scarce, investments from the private sector are essential to scale up rural electrification and thus to achieve universal access to electricity by 2030. However, the lack of clear public policies, together with a high perceived risk, have been a deterrent to investors' participation in off-grid electrification projects. In this paper, we focus on identifying the main drivers of risk, namely the set of uncertainties and perceived risks that prevent private companies from investing in off-grid electrification projects. We use a stochastic discount cash flow technique — net present value (NPV) combined with Monte Carlo simulation — to incorporate these uncertainties and quantify the business and investment risks associated with an off-grid solar PV project. The technique is applied to the case of Colombia, wherein major contributors to risk are the variability in revenues and the annual revenue growth rate. For this case, we estimate the probability of project failure and investigate how private companies could mitigate risks by keeping operating costs to <50 % of revenues. In this regard, the role of the government proves to be essential in providing a better investment environment for private investors. We suggest that government interventions could take the form of financial de-risking instruments, including better-designed end-user subsidies and the implementation of concession agreements through long-term contracts. These results are of interest to private investors who need to account for risk analysis when deciding whether to invest or not in off-grid projects. Also, our findings guide policymakers seeking to understand the private sector perspective while designing efficient policy mechanisms to increase access to electricity in developing countries.

Mapping of affordability levels for photovoltaic-based electricity generation in the solar belt of sub-Saharan Africa, East Asia and South Asia

Lack of access to modern forms of energy hampers efforts to reduce poverty. The provision of electricity to off-grid communities is therefore a long-standing developmental goal. Yet, many off-grid electrification projects neglect mid- and long-term operation and maintenance costs. When this is the case, electricity services are unlikely to be affordable to the communities that are the project’s primary target. Here we show that, compared with diesel-powered electricity generation systems, solar photovoltaic systems are more affordable to no less than 36% of the unelectrified populations in East Asia, South Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa. We do so by developing geo-referenced estimates of affordability at a high level of resolution (1 km2). The analysis illustrates the differences in affordability that may be found at the subnational level, which underscores that electrification investments should be informed by subnational data.

An assessment of rural electrification projects in Kenya using a sustainability framework

This research is driven by the goal to develop human survivability studies, a solution oriented, trans-disciplinary academic approach for resolving multiple complex societal challenges. Given persisting poverty and inequality in rural areas of developing countries, as well as their vulnerability to the effects of climate change, there are high expectations that rural electrification using renewable energy can contribute to their sustainable development. We therefore use a sustainability framework to assess the contributions of four electrification projects in rural Kenya in ensuring the long-term well-being of local residents and future generations. Our results show that off-grid electrification projects run by the private sector were the better performers in the assessment. While more research is necessary to improve robustness, our preliminary policy recommendations are that Kenyan policy makers should provide further support to private sector-led off-grid solar electrification efforts.

Marginalisation of off-grid energy sector in Sri Lanka: What lessons could be learnt?

Renewable energy-based off-grid projects have played a crucial role in Sri Lanka’s universal electrification effort. The paper, in this context, unravels two crucial and quite interrelated aspects of decentralised off-grid electrification in the country: a) it critically analyses the off-grid electricity sector development and assesses its contribution to the universal electrification in the country and; b) it examines the current set of challenges associated with the off-grid electrification in the larger context of massive grid expansion. A mix of quantitative and qualitative research methods is employed as tools of analysis. The paper brings out several policy-relevant findings. Strategic policy interventions coupled with targeted policy goals, robust community-centric management structures, well-designed credit systems, and well-structured capacity-building initiatives are identified as key leveraging points for the success of off-grid electrification projects. The techno-economic analysis of an existing micro-hydro project reveals that there exist opportunities for more productive use of existing capacity. Grid interconnection of off-grid energy projects emerges as a major challenge beset with a whole gamut of technical, legal, regulatory, financial, and social conundrums. Interestingly, the intensity of such challenges differs across ownership types.

A Hybrid Evolutionary Approach to Design Off-Grid Electrification Projects with Distributed Generation

A hybrid evolutionary approach is proposed to design off-grid electrification projects that require distributed generation (DG). The design of this type of systems can be considered as an NP-Hard combinatorial optimization problem; therefore, due to its complexity, the approach tackles the problem from two fronts: optimal network configuration and optimal placement of DG. The hybrid scheme is based on a particle swarm optimization technique (PSO) and a genetic algorithm (GA) improved with a heuristic mutation operator. The GA-PSO scheme permits finding the optimal network topology, the optimal number, and capacity of the generation units, as well as their best location. Furthermore, the algorithm must design the system under power quality requirements, network radiality, and geographical constraints. The approach uses GPS coordinates as input data and develops a network topology from scratch, driven by overall costs and power losses minimization. Finally, the proposed algorithm is described in detail and real applications are discussed, from which satisfactory results were obtained.

Examining energy sufficiency and energy mobility in the global south through the energy justice framework

The widespread adoption of the energy justice framework notwithstanding, arguments offered have not been able to provide tangible definitions of sufficientarianism and energy mobility. Considering widening disparities on what constitutes sufficient energy (electricity) access between the global north (North America, Europe, Australia) and the global south (sub-Saharan Africa, SSA), this paper highlights the influence of ’western reality’ on the energy narrative. This paper also attempts to propose a model that evaluates off-grid electrification projects (in the global south) and their ability to guarantee sufficientarianism by examining the prospects of such projects in providing connected households access (energy security and sustainability of energy supply) and mobility (transition from a lower to higher energy level through the purchase of additional electrical equipment). Furthermore, this paper explores and provides arguments on energy bullying (by industrialized nations on developing countries mostly in SSA) while also offering suggestions for improvements in Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects. In essence, this paper formulates the endemic problems of energy access and energy mobility (plaguing the global south) as a justice problem and further provides insight into the exacerbation of injustice and bullying exhibited by the global north. Examples from South Africa have been utilized as case study.

The natural and capital infrastructure of potential post-electrification wealth creation in Kenya

BackgroundIt is widely accepted that electricity is an important element for improving levels of human development and wealth creation in rural areas. Yet, little research has explored the conditions under which electrification could lead to wealth creation post-electrification. Using Kenya as a case study, this paper uses natural capital (NC) and infrastructural capital (IC) data to compare the enabling environments under which electrification could lead to wealth creation (and persistent demand for electricity) post-electrification.MethodsWe use multiple spatial data sets to create three different metrics for NC and IC and use them to create a micro-enterprise development index (MED index). NC data is composed of water body data (major rivers and access to irrigation infrastructure), soil data (soil quality and agro-ecological potential), and agricultural data (crop intensity and diversity). IC is composed of spatial data spanning major towns, first and second tier roads, electricity infrastructure (transmission grid, location of government, and entrepreneur run off-grid electrification projects), population density, access to education, trade centers (markets), healthcare, and access to financial services. We perform feature scaling on NC and IC data and use them to create a MED index, which we use to represent the potential for rural micro-enterprises to create wealth, post-electrification. We compare this spatial proxy to a nightlights GDP per capita proxy developed by the World Bank in 2015 and provide a discussion highlighting the benefits and drawbacks of our approach and of using nightlights as a single metric for wealth in rural areas.ResultsIn Kenya, infrastructural capital follows natural capital. Regions with greater natural capital have relatively higher development and penetration of infrastructural capital. We observe a large discrepancy between our MED index and the nightlights income proxy, which could be caused by an underestimate of economic activity by nightlights, and an overestimate by the MED index, being that it is a measure of “potential” wealth (as opposed to current wealth).ConclusionsA spatial aggregation of natural and infrastructural capital, and nightlights data, could be an accurate demand-side input for electrification supply-side models including grid-expansion and off-grid strategies.

A meta-heuristic method to design off-grid community electrification projects with renewable energies

The design of off-grid electrification projects considering hybrid systems and distribution microgrids is a complex task that requires the use of decision support tools. Most of existing tools focus on the design of hybrid systems without defining generator locations and microgrids configuration. Recently a deterministic heuristic was developed to solve the problem. In this study we present an enhanced deterministic heuristic and then a meta-heuristic procedure for designing community off-grid electrification projects based on renewable energies considering micro-scale resource variations and a combination of independent generation points and microgrids. Both new algorithms improve performance of the previous existing procedure. The new deterministic heuristic can rapidly (in a computational time lower than 1 min) obtain a good solution. On the other hand, the proposed meta-heuristic method considerably enhances solutions obtained by the deterministic heuristic with a computational time of 1 h on a standard PC. The improvement tends to raise as the complexity of the analyzed instance increases. The proposed algorithm is a complete design tool that can efficiently support the design of stand-alone community electrification projects requiring of low computational resources.

Off-grid community electrification projects based on wind and solar energies: A case study in Nicaragua

Despite various institutional efforts, about 22% of the total Nicaraguan population still do not have access to electricity. Due to the dispersed nature of many rural inhabitants, off-grid electrification systems that use renewable energy sources are a reliable and sustainable option to provide electricity to isolated communities. In this study, the design of an off-grid electrification project based on hybrid wind-photovoltaic systems in a rural community of Nicaragua is developed. Firstly the analysis of the location, energy and power demands of all users of the community is carried out. A detailed resource assessment is then developed by means of historical data, in-situ wind measurements and a specific micro-scale wind flow model. An optimization algorithm is utilized to support the design defining generation (number, type and location of generators, controllers, batteries and inverters) and distribution (electric networks) systems considering the detail of resource variations. The algorithm is modified in order to consider a long-term perspective and a sensitivity analysis is carried out considering different operation and maintenance costs’ scenarios. The proposed design configuration combines solar home systems, solar based microgrids and wind based microgrids in order to connect concentrated groups of users taking advantage of best wind resource areas.

A heuristic method to design autonomous village electrification projects with renewable energies

Systems relying on renewable energies demonstrated to be a reliable and sustainable option to electrify isolated communities autonomously. Hybrid systems that combine different energy resources and distribution microgrids are the most efficient design configurations. The design of these systems requires the use of decision support tools, while projects' promoters generally dispose of low design resources. This study presents a heuristic method to design off-grid electrification projects based on wind and solar energies considering micro-scale resource variations and a combination of independent generation points and microgrids. The method considers generation far from users and a pre-selection process is presented in order to screen the initial pool of potentially infinite generation points. Different algorithm versions are evaluated and performances are compared with existing tools: VIPOR, known software for microgrids design, and a recently developed mixed integer linear programming (MILP) model. The proposed heuristic performs better than VIPOR with mean improvements of around 6% and, for communities of more than 40 users, considerably enhances solutions obtained by the MILP model with a much lower computational time (1 min against 1 h). The method is a complete and simple tool that can efficiently support the design of stand-alone community electrification projects with renewable energies.

Renewable energy projects to electrify rural communities in Cape Verde

Even though Cape Verde has high wind and solar energy resources, the conventional strategy for increasing access to electricity in isolated rural areas is by centralized microgrids with diesel generators. In this study, the design of 2 off-grid electrification projects based on hybrid wind–photovoltaic systems in Cape Verde is developed and analyzed. The design considers some significant novelty features in comparison with previous studies. First a detailed wind resource assessment is carried out combining meso-scale wind climate data and a specialized micro-scale wind flow model. Then a mathematical model is used for the design of off-grid projects considering a combination of individual systems and microgrids. In this study, locations far from the demand points are also considered as possible generation points. Various design configurations are analyzed and compared. The proposed configurations exploit the highest wind potential areas and are economically beneficial in comparison with diesel generator systems.

Micro-Scale Wind Resource Assessment for Off-Grid Electrification Projects in Rural Communities. A Case Study in Peru

The proper identification of locally available renewable energy resources are key issues in the project design of off-grid rural electrification systems to improve effectiveness and long-term sustainability. In recent decades, a number of computer tools have been created to improve micro-scale wind resource assessment and their use is a de-facto standard, for instance, in wind farm design. However, these tools are not used in off-grid rural electrification projects in remote areas in developing countries because some characteristics of the projects are out of models' operational limits (limited and inaccurate information available and steep terrains) and their applicability and performance in those contexts has not been studied. The aim of this study is to evaluate and optimize the performance of a micro-scale model for its application for resource estimation in rural electrification projects, considering their specific characteristics. The analyses are based on data collected in two communities in the Andean mountains of Peru. Sensitivity analyses are carried out to evaluate the influence of the main input data on assessment accuracy. Although limitations and constraints of these projects, the results show that the model performance is good and the resulting resource map is accurate in the typical area of a community project. Thus, analyzed micro-scale model and procedure prove to be suitable for wind resource studies at the community scale; its use in the design of the electrification project of Alto Peru (Peru) is given as an example.

Heuristic indicators for the design of community off-grid electrification systems based on multiple renewable energies

Off-grid rural electrification project configurations which consider hybrid generation systems based on multiple renewable sources and the implementation of micro-grids are the most promising design solutions. The efficient design of those systems is a complex task that is facing several technical issues such as limited time and resources available for the purpose, especially in developing countries. This study proposes indicators for supporting and improving the design of community off-grid electrification projects considering hybrid generation and micro-grids. A (Grid Generation Score) GGS is defined in order to identify most promising locations for being the generation point of a micro-grid. The (No-Generation Score) NGS and the (Independent Generation Score) IGS evaluate respectively if a point should be reliably connected to a micro-grid or should better be an independent generation point. All indicators could be easily and quickly calculated at a very first stage of the plan of a community project requiring as input data only demand and resource distributions in the studied area. It is shown that the utilization of proposed indictors can enhance the design of stand-alone community electrification projects based on renewable energies.

Off-grid solar electrification for rural development: the implications of the Renewable Energy Development Project (REDP) in China

Over the course of 2002 to 2007, the $316 million Renewable Energy Development Project (REDP) sold more than 400,000 solar home systems benefiting two million individuals in north-western China. This study examines the history, benefits, and challenges of the REDP. International development donors and energy analysts have hailed the REDP as a best practice example in solar home system deployment. The article illustrates how solar home systems continue to provide benefits to users and that their portability especially complements the lifestyle of nomadic herders that roam the vast expanses of the country's North-western region. However, it also finds that even for such highly successful programmes as the REDP, purchasing decisions are based on price rather than quality, and after-sales service networks remain weak. Grid electrification and market saturation have also eroded the contributions made under the programme. The article concludes by drawing on what the experiences of the REDP mean for the regulation and governance of off-grid solar electrification projects more generally.

Review of Alternative Methodologies for Analysing Off-Grid Electricity Supply

Off-grid electrification is gaining importance in the developing countries where the access to electricity is often limited. The purpose of this paper is to review alternative methodologies that are used for off-grid electrification projects to identify the features of each methodological approach and to present their strengths and weaknesses. The paper reviews a large volume of relevant literature covering techno-economic feasibility studies, analytical works highlighting methodological applications and practice-oriented literature. The review identifies five methodological options, namely the worksheet-based tools, optimisation tools, multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) tools, system-based participatory tools and hybrid approaches. The paper recommends a hybrid approach that combines two or more options to take advantage of strengths and weaknesses of different options.

Measured Performance of Building Integrated Photovoltaic Panels*

The photovoltaic industry is experiencing rapid growth. Industry analysts project that photovoltaic sales will increase from their current $1.5 billion level to over $27 billion by 2020, representing an average growth rate of 25%. (Cook et. al. 2000)[1]. To date, the vast majority of sales have been for navigational signals, call boxes, telecommunication centers, consumer products, off-grid electrification projects, and small grid-interactive residential rooftop applications. Building integrated photovoltaics, the integration of photovoltaic cells into one or more of the exterior surfaces of the building envelope, represents a small but growing photovoltaic application. In order for building owners, designers, and architects to make informed economic decisions regarding the use of building integrated photovoltaics, accurate predictive tools and performance data are needed. A building integrated photovoltaic test bed has been constructed at the National Institute of Standards and Technology to provide the performance data needed for model validation. The facility incorporates four identical pairs of building integrated photovoltaic panels constructed using single-crystalline, polycrystalline, silicon film, and amorphous silicon photovoltaic cells. One panel of each identical pair is installed with thermal insulation attached to its rear surface. The second paired panel is installed without thermal insulation. This experimental configuration yields results that quantify the effect of elevated cell temperature on the panels’ performance for different cell technologies. This paper presents the first set of experimental results from this facility. Comparisons are made between the electrical performance of the insulated and non-insulated panels for each of the four cell technologies. The monthly and overall conversion efficiencies for each cell technology are presented and the seasonal performance variations discussed. Daily efficiencies are presented for a selected month. Finally, plots of the power output and panel temperatures are presented and discussed for the single-crystalline and amorphous silicon panels.

Geothermal slim holes for small off-grid power projects

Economically viable, small (100 kW e to 1000 kW e), geothermal power generation units using slim holes are available for the production of electrical power in remote areas and for rural electrification in developing countries. Based on borehole data from geothermal fields in the United States and Japan, slim holes have been proven as adequate fuel sources for small-scale geothermal power plants (SSGPPs) and can deliver enough geothermal fluid to the wellhead in a baseload mode to be of practical interest for off-grid electrification projects. The electrical generating capacity of geothermal fluids which can be produced from typical slim holes (150-mm diameter or less), both by conventional, self-discharge, flash-steam methods for hotter geothermal reservoirs, and by binary-cycle technology with downhole pumps for low- to moderate-temperature reservoirs are estimated using a simplified theoretical approach. Depending mainly on reservoir temperature, the numerical simulations indicate that electrical capacities from a few hundred kilowatts to over one megawatt per slim hole are possible. In addition to the advantage of price per kilowatt-hour in off-grid applications, SSGPPs fueled by slim holes are far more environmentally benign than fossil-burning power plants, which is crucial in view of current worldwide climate-change concerns and burgeoning electricity demand in the less-developed and developing countries.