OECD Destination Research Articles

South‐south refugee movements: Do pull factors play a role?

AbstractStudies analyzing the pattern of international refugee flows have so far focussed on movements to OECD destinations, even though the vast majority of refugees live in non‐OECD countries. Employing a standard gravity model of international migration, we fill this research gap by investigating the impact of destination country characteristics on south‐south refugee movements over the period 2004–2019. Our findings suggest that refugees tend to move to safe neighboring countries but also positively respond to local pull factors such as relatively high per‐capita income levels and the availability of education and health services when choosing their country of destination. Donors have the ability to affect the direction of south‐south refugee movements by investing in the social infrastructure of potential destination countries.

Does Aid Drive Migration? Evidence from a Shift-Share Instrument

Foreign aid payments have been a key policy response by Global North countries to reduce increased migration flows from the Global South. In this article, we contribute to the literature on the relationship between aid and international migration flows and estimate the contemporaneous effect of bilateral aid payments on bilateral, international migration flows. The fundamental problem in analyzing this relationship is endogeneity, or reverse causality. To address this issue and achieve causal inference, we use a shift-share, or Bartik, instrument. Examining migration flows between 198 origin countries and 16 OECD destination countries over 36 years (1980−2015), we find a positive relationship between aid and migration. A ten-percent increase in aid payments will increase migration by roughly 2 percent. We further document non-linearity in the relationship between aid and migration and find an inverted U-shaped relationship between aid and migration flows. The findings presented here have implications for the design of bilateral and multilateral aid policies and for achieving various United Nations Sustainable Development Goals by stressing the importance of a better coordination between aid and immigration policies.

High-Skilled Migration in Times of Global Economic Crisis

We introduce two pioneering databases in order to analyze the implications of the Global Economic Crisis on international migration. The first details inflows of migrant workers of 185 nationalities to 10 OECD destinations, disaggregated by skill level (highly skilled and otherwise), between 2000 and 2012. The second comprises immigration policies implemented by 19 OECD countries between 2000 and 2012. We distinguish between six skill-selective admission policies, six post-entry policy instruments and three bilateral agreements. Subsequently we present preliminary analysis of these data against the backdrop of the Global Economic Crisis. The Global Economic Crisis negatively affected annual inflows of both highly and other skilled migrants between 2007 and 2009, although they resumed their upward trend thereafter. The starkest trends in policy terms include: the emergence and rapid diffusion of student job seeker visas, the relative stability in the prevalence of skill selective policies in the wake of the Global Economic Crisis, a greater use of financial incentives to attract high-skilled workers and increased employer transferability for migrants at destination.

Do potential migrants internalize migrant rights in OECD host societies?

AbstractThis paper analyzes how countries’ provision of migrant rights affects potential migrants’ destination choice. Combining data on bilateral migration desires from over 140 origin countries and data on migrant rights in 38 mainly OECD destination countries over the period 2007–2014, we find that potential migrants tend to favour destinations that are more open to the inclusion of immigrants into their society. In particular, better access to and conditions on the labour market as well as access to nationality and to permanent residency significantly increase the perceived attractiveness of a destination country. These results are robust across different specifications and hold for subsamples of origin countries as well as of destinations. Moreover, some results vary across types of respondents. Educational opportunities for migrants, for instance, affect the migration desires of individuals aged 15 to 24, but less so of individuals in other age groups.

Remittances and the Brain Drain: Evidence from Microdata for Sub-Saharan Africa

Based on unique microdata from five Sub-Saharan African countries that contain comprehensive information on both migrants and their households at the origin country, we investigate the effect of migrants’ education on their remittance behaviour. Our results reveal that migrants’ education has no impact on the likelihood of sending remittances, but a positive effect on the amount of money sent, conditional on remitting. The latter effect holds for internal migrants and migrants in non-OECD countries, while it vanishes for migrants in OECD destination countries once characteristics of the origin household are controlled for.

Migration and development: Dissecting the anatomy of the mobility transition

Emigration first increases and then decreases as a country experiences economic development. This inverted U-shaped, cross-sectional relationship between emigration and development was first hypothesized by Zelinsky's theory of the mobility transition. Although several mechanisms have been proposed to explain the upward segment of the curve (the most common being the existence of financial constraints), they have not been examined in a systematic way. In this paper, we propose two decomposition methods to disentangle the main drivers of the mobility transition curve to OECD destination countries. Our simple decompositions shed light on the role of both microeconomic drivers (i.e., financial incentives and constraints) and macroeconomic drivers, as well as the skill composition of the population. Our double decomposition further distinguishes between migration aspirations and realization rates by education level. Overall, we provide consistent evidence that the role of financial constraints, while relevant for the poorest countries, is limited. Rather, a large fraction of the increasing segment is explained by the skill composition and by macroeconomic drivers (i.e., by factors that do not change in the short-run).

Do Migrants Transfer Productive Knowledge Back to Their Origin Countries?

This paper analyses whether international migrants contribute to increasing technological advances in developing countries by inducing a transfer of productive knowledge from developed countries back to migrants’ home countries. Using the Economic Complexity Index as a proxy for the amount of productive knowledge embedded in each countries and bilateral migrant stocks of 20 OECD destination countries, we show that international migration is a strong channel of technological transmission. Diasporas foster the local adoption of new technologies by connecting high technology countries with low ones, reducing the uncertainty surrounding their profitability. Our empirical results support the hypothesis that technological transfers are more likely to occur out of more technologically advanced destinations and when emigration rates are particularly high.

The Gravity of High-Skilled Migration Policies.

Combining unique, annual, bilateral data on labor flows of highly skilled immigrants for 10 OECD destinations between 2000 and 2012, with new databases comprising both unilateral and bilateral policy instruments, we present the first judicious cross-country assessment of policies aimed to attract and select high-skilled workers. Points-based systems are much more effective in attracting and selecting high-skilled migrants than requiring a job offer, labor market tests, and shortage lists. Offers of permanent residency, while attracting the highly skilled, overall reduce the human capital content of labor flows because they prove more attractive to non-high-skilled workers. Bilateral recognition of diploma and social security agreements foster greater flows of high-skilled workers and improve the skill selectivity of immigrant flows. Conversely, double taxation agreements deter high-skilled migrants, although they do not alter overall skill selectivity. Our results are robust to a variety of empirical specifications that account for destination-specific amenities, multilateral resistance to migration, and the endogeneity of immigration policies.

Stymied ambition: does a lack of economic freedom lead to migration?

We investigate the relationship between economic freedom and international migration for the 1980–2010 period using a dataset on migration from 91 emerging countries to the 20 most attractive OECD destination countries. We find that more economic freedom at home discourages high-skilled migration, but not low-skilled migration. The negative association between economic freedom and high-skilled emigration also holds when we estimate (dynamic) panel models that allow for endogeneity in the economic freedom-migration nexus. In sum, our findings suggest that high-skilled migration is especially responsive to the economic incentives resulting from economic freedom.

The Import of 'Cultural Goods' and Emigration: An Unexplored Relation

The paper examines the effect of the import of cultural goods as defined by UNESCO (2009): cultural heritage, performance, visual arts, books, audio-visual material and design on emigration decisions. The import of cultural goods, by affecting individual preferences, reduces the cost of any migration move and favors outflows towards exporting countries. A gravity model for 33 OECD destination countries and 184 sending ones has been estimated for the period 2009-2013. The issue of identification and endogeneity has been addressed through the inclusion of a comprehensive set of fixed effects and by instrumenting cultural imports with past flows and an imputed share of cultural imports a la Card (2001). The positive relationship is robust across different classifications for cultural goods, areas of destination and alternative econometric techniques.

Do High‐Skill Immigrants trigger High‐Quality Trade?

AbstractThis paper investigates the links between product quality and the pro‐trade effect of ethnic networks using a large panel on bilateral stocks of immigrants with information for 19 OECD destination countries and 177 origin countries. In line with the approach of Rauch and Trindade, we classify traded goods according to their quality level and separately estimate pro‐trade elasticity of ethnic networks for each subgroup. We allow for heterogeneity of immigrants according to both the level of per capita income of their country of origin and their education level. Our findings suggest that the trend of the pro‐trade effect of immigrants over quality seems to be driven by the North–South specialisation across varieties for both supply and demand. Indeed, ethnic networks mostly facilitate imports of those varieties for which their countries of origin have a comparative advantage; as for exports, ethnic networks are more effective in promoting exports to their homeland of those varieties for which there is relatively higher demand. We show that the same trend applies to products characterised by the same degree of differentiation according to the classification proposed by Rauch and – given their lower liquidity constraints and advantages in human capital – we find a greater impact of high‐skilled migrants consistent across all quality levels.

Bilateral real exchange rates and migration

ABSTRACTMigrants who move across borders are, to a large extent, motivated by the prospect of earning higher incomes at destination, which can be partly transferred back to their countries of origin via remittances. This suggests that the real exchange rate can influence the incentives to migrate, as it determines the purchasing power of expected income in terms of the currency of the origin country. This article investigates empirically how bilateral real exchange rate fluctuations influence international migration flows. To do so, we build a dataset of 30 OECD destination countries and 165 origin countries over the period 1980–2011 and estimate an equation derived from a micro-founded random utility maximization model that allows for unobserved heterogeneity between migrants and non-migrants. Our results show that migration flows are highly responsive to bilateral real exchange rates: A 10% real appreciation of the currency of the destination country is associated with an 18.2–19.4% increase in migration flows.

Remittances and the Brain Drain: Evidence from Microdata for Sub-Saharan Africa

Research on the relationship between high-skilled migration and remittances has been limited by the lack of suitable microdata. We create a unique cross-country dataset by combining household surveys from five Sub-Saharan African countries that enables us to analyze the effect of migrants' education on their remittance behavior. Having comprehensive information on both ends of the migrant-origin household relationship and employing household fixed effects specifications that only use within-household variation for identification allows us to address the problem of unobserved heterogeneity across migrants' origin households. Our results reveal that migrants' education has no significant impact on the likelihood of sending remittances. Conditional on sending remittances, however, high-skilled migrants send significantly higher amounts of money to their households left behind. This effect holds for the sub-groups of internal migrants and migrants in non-OECD countries, while it vanishes for migrants in OECD destination countries once characteristics of the origin household are controlled for.

The Role of Language in Shaping International Migration

This paper examines the importance of language in international migration from multiple angles by studying the role of linguistic proximity, widely spoken languages, linguistic enclaves and language-based immigration policy requirements. To this aim we collect a unique dataset on immigration flows and stocks in 30 OECD destinations from all world countries over the period 1980-2010, and construct a set of linguistic proximity measures. Migration rates increase with linguistic proximity and with English at destination. Softer linguistic requirements for naturalization and larger linguistic communities at destination encourage more migrants to move. Linguistic proximity matters less when local linguistic network are larger.

International migration and trade agreements: The new role of PTAs

AbstractThis paper provides an empirical analysis of the relationship between preferential trade agreements (PTAs) and bilateral migration flows. Building on the empirical literature on the determinants of migration flows, I estimate a modified gravity model to assess the role of PTAs and their content on bilateral migration flows. Using a sample of 29 OECD destination countries over the period 1998–2008, I show a strong positive effect of PTAs on bilateral migration flows. I find that the content of PTAs also matters: when visa‐and‐asylum and labour market related provisions are included in PTAs, this further stimulates bilateral migration flows. Different estimation strategies, including instrumental variables, are employed to address the potential endogeneity bias problems related to PTAs and their content.

A Global Assessment of Human Capital Mobility: The Role of Non-OECD Destinations

Discussions of high-skilled mobility typically evoke migration patterns from poorer to wealthier countries, which ignore movements to and between developing countries. This paper presents, for the first time, a global overview of human capital mobility through bilateral migration stocks by gender and education in 1990 and 2000, and calculation of nuanced brain drain indicators. Building on newly collated data, the paper uses a novel estimation procedure based on a pseudo-gravity model, then identifies key determinants of international migration, and subsequently uses estimated parameters to impute missing data. Non-OECD destinations account for one-third of skilled-migration, while OECD destinations are declining in relative importance.

Natural disasters, migration and education: an empirical analysis in developing countries

AbstractThis paper aims to assess the effect of natural disasters closely related to climate change on migration rates in developing countries, observing how this effect varies according to the level of education. We investigate this relationship by using panel data that measure international migration from developing countries to the main OECD destination countries. Estimations are made with a pair-country fixed effects estimator. The results show that natural disasters are positively associated with emigration rates. Furthermore, we show that natural disasters may exacerbate the brain drain in developing countries when they are at their most vulnerable and need greater support from skilled workers. We also find that the effect of natural disasters on migration varies depending on the geographical location of countries, as well as according to the type of disaster.

A Global Assessment of Human Capital Mobility: The Role of Non-OECD Destinations

Discussions of high-skilled mobility typically evoke migration patterns from poorer to wealthier countries, which ignore movements to and between developing countries. This paper presents, for the first time, a global overview of human capital mobility through bilateral migration stocks by gender and education in 1990 and 2000, and calculation of nuanced brain drain indicators. Building on newly collated data, we use a novel estimation procedure based on a pseudo-gravity model. We identify key determinants of international migration, which we subsequently use to impute missing data. Non-OECD destinations account for one-third of skilled-migration, while OECD destinations are declining in relative importance.

Can gender differences in educational performance of 15-year-old migrant pupils be explained by societal gender equality in origin and destination countries?

In this paper, we attempt to explain the differences between reading and math scores of migrants’ children (8430 daughters and 8526 sons) in 17 OECD destination countries, coming from 45 origin countries or regions, using PISA 2009 data. In addition to the societal gender equality levels of the origin and destination countries (the gender empowerment measure), we use macro indicators of the origin countries’ educational systems, economic development and religions. We find that migrant daughters from countries with higher gender equality levels obtain higher reading scores than comparable migrant sons do (but this is not the case for math scores). In addition, the higher the gender equality levels in the destination countries, the lower the reading and math scores of both male and female migrants’ children in their destination countries. Further analyses suggest it is the difference between gender equality levels, rather than the levels themselves, that explains the educational performance of both female and male migrant pupils. Our results also show the low gender equality level in Islamic origin countries offers a possible explanation for the low educational performance of Islamic pupils, both male and female. Finally, migrants’ daughters seem to perform slightly better educationally, compared with migrants’ sons.

Climate Variability and International Migration: The Importance of the Agricultural Linkage

While there is considerable interest in understanding the climate-migration relationship, particularly in the context of concerns about global climatic change, little is known about underlying mechanisms. We analyze a unique and extensive set of panel data characterizing annual bilateral international migration flows from 163 origin countries to 42 OECD destination countries covering the last three decades. We find a positive and statistically significant relationship between temperature and international outmigration only in the most agriculture-dependent countries, consistent with the widely-documented adverse impact of temperature on agricultural productivity. In addition, migration flows to current major destinations are especially temperature-sensitive. Policies to address issues related to climate-induced international migration would be more effective if focused on the agriculture-dependent countries and especially people in those countries whose livelihoods depend on agriculture.