Ocean pCO2 Research Articles

Spatiotemporal upscaling of sparse air-sea pCO2 data via physics-informed transfer learning.

Global measurements of ocean pCO2 are critical to monitor and understand changes in the global carbon cycle. However, pCO2 observations remain sparse as they are mostly collected on opportunistic ship tracks. Several approaches, especially based on direct learning, have been used to upscale and extrapolate sparse point data to dense estimates using globally available input features. However, these estimates tend to exhibit spatially heterogeneous performance. As a result, we propose a physics-informed transfer learning workflow to generate dense pCO2 estimates that are grounded in real-world measurements and remainphysically consistent. The models are initially trained on dense input predictors against pCO2 estimates from Earth system model simulation, and then fine-tuned to sparse SOCAT observational data. Compared to the benchmark direct learning approach, our transfer learning framework shows major improvements of up to 56-92%. Furthermore, we demonstrate that using models that explicitly account for spatiotemporal structures in the data yield better validation performances by 50-68%. Our strategy thus presents a new monthly global pCO2 estimate that spans for 35 years between 1982-2017.

Carbon Dioxide Flux and its Relationship to Water Quality in the Teluk Awur - Jepara, Indonesia

Abstract Anthropogenic activities on land will affect the carbon system in coastal waters. This condition will affect the role of coastal waters as a source or sink of carbon. This research will examine the distribution of carbonate systems and estimate CO2 fluxes. Water samples were taken at 30 stations as well as measuring in situ water parameters including pH, temperature, salinity, and pressure. Alkalinity was analysed based on the titration method, chl-a using the fluorometer method, and carbonate system parameters (pCO2(sea) and DIC) calculated using CO2SYS.xlsm. The pCO2(atm) value is calculated based on atmospheric data from satellite data, including the saturation vapour pressure of sea air in the atmosphere, fraction mol of CO2, and sea level pressure. Pearson correlation analysis was used to see the correlation between the measured parameters and CO2 flux. Carbon flux is determined based on the difference between atmospheric and oceanic pCO2. The DIC calculation result was in the range of 1,946.09 µmol/kg - 2,061.65 µmol/kg and the total alkalinity was 2,156.86 µmol/kg - 2,264.71 µmol/kg. Based on this value, Jepara coastal waters have pCO2(sea) of 573,800 micro-atmospheric (µatm) which is higher than pCO2(atm) (i.e., 386,772 µatm). The input of organic/inorganic carbon resulting from anthropogenic processes on land has influenced Jepara coastal waters which act as a source of CO2 into the atmosphere amounting to 103,799 mmol/m2/day. The results of this research can be used as a reference for managing coastal areas to achieve low carbon emissions.

The importance of adding unbiased Argo observations to the ocean carbon observing system

The current coverage of direct, high-quality ship-based observations of surface ocean pCO2 includes large gaps in time and space, and has been declining since 2017. These ocean observations provide the basis for the data products that reconstruct surface ocean pCO2 and estimate ocean carbon uptake. Improved data coverage is needed to advance our understanding of the ocean carbon sink and air–sea CO2 exchange. Targeted sampling from autonomous platforms, such as biogeochemical floats, combined with traditional shipboard measurements represents a promising path forward to improve surface ocean pCO2 reconstructions. However, floats provide indirect pCO2 estimates derived from pH, and thus have higher uncertainty and are biased compared to direct shipboard measurements. Here, we use a Large Ensemble Testbed (LET) of Earth System Models and the pCO2-Residual method to reconstruct surface ocean pCO2 globally to test the impact of additional float observations, both with and without measurement uncertainties. Through comparison to the ‘model truth’, the LET allows for robust evaluation of the reconstructions. With only shipboard sampling, surface ocean pCO2 is overestimated, and the 2000–2016 global ocean carbon sink is underestimated by 0.1 Pg C year−1. Additional float observations significantly reduce this underestimation, and deviate from the ‘model truth’ by as little as 0.01 Pg C year−1, even when floats have random uncertainties of ± 11 μatm. However, systematic bias in the float observations significantly degrades the accuracy of pCO2 reconstructions, leading to an even stronger underestimation of the global ocean carbon sink of up to 0.32 Pg C year−1. We conclude that adding float-based observations to the global observing system can significantly improve reconstructions of global surface ocean pCO2, but only if these data are unbiased.

The Southern Ocean carbon sink has been overestimated in the past three decades

Employing machine learning methods for mapping surface ocean pCO2 has reduced the uncertainty in estimating sea-air CO2 flux. However, a general discrepancy exists between the Southern Ocean carbon sinks derived from pCO2 products and those from biogeochemistry models. Here, by performing a boosting ensemble learning feed-forward neural networks method, we have identified an underestimation of the surface Southern Ocean pCO2 due to notably uneven density of pCO2 measurements between summer and winter, which resulted in about 16% overestimating of Southern Ocean carbon sink over the past three decades. In particular, the Southern Ocean carbon sink since 2010 was notably overestimated by approximately 29%. This overestimation can be mitigated by a winter correction in algorithms, with the average Southern Ocean carbon sink during 1992-2021 corrected to −0.87 PgC yr−1 from the original −1.01 PgC yr−1. Furthermore, the most notable underestimation of surface ocean pCO2 mainly occurred in regions south of 60°S and was hiding under ice cover. As the surface ocean pCO2 under sea ice coverage in the winter is much higher than the atmosphere, if sea ice melts completely, there could be a further reduction of about 0.14 PgC yr−1 in the Southern Ocean carbon sink.

Modelling the multiple action pathways of projected climate change on the Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) early life stages

Understanding how future ocean conditions will impact early life stages and population recruitment of fishes is critical for adapting fisheries communities to climate change. In this study, we incorporated projected changes in physical and biological ecosystem dynamics from an oceanographic model into a mechanistic individual-based model for larval and juvenile stages of the Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) in the eastern Bering Sea. We particularly investigated the impacts of ocean currents, temperature, prey density, and pCO2 on the hatching success, growth, survival, and spatial distribution of this species during 2021–2100. We evaluated two CO2 emission scenarios: RCP8.5 (high CO2 emissions, low mitigation efforts) and RCP4.5 (medium CO2 emissions and mitigation efforts). We found that the increase in temperature and decrease in prey density were the main drivers of faster growth rates and lower survival through increased starvation by the end of the century. Conversely, pCO2 had negligible impacts, which suggests that this species might be resilient to ocean acidification. The largest effects were observed under the high CO2 emission scenario, while the RCP4.5 projections displayed minimal impacts. We also identified an area with favourable conditions in the southeastern Bering Sea that will likely persist in future decades. This study provides relevant information on the future impacts of climate change on Pacific cod, and our results can be used to implement and inform climate-ready management for this important stock in Alaska.

Zinc stimulation of phytoplankton in a low carbon dioxide, coastal Antarctic environment.

Zinc (Zn) is a key micronutrient used by phytoplankton for carbon (C) acquisition, yet there have been few observations of its influence on natural oceanic phytoplankton populations. In this study, we observed Zn limitation of growth in the natural phytoplankton community of Terra Nova Bay, Antarctica, due to low (~220 μatm) pCO2 conditions, in addition to primary iron (Fe) limitation. Shipboard incubation experiments amended with Zn and Fe resulted in significantly higher chlorophyll a content and dissolved inorganic carbon drawdown compared to Fe addition alone. Zn and Fe response proteins detected in incubation and environmental biomass provided independent verification of algal co-stress for these micronutrients. These observations of Zn limitation under low pCO2 conditions demonstrate Zn can influence coastal primary productivity. Yet, as surface ocean pCO2 rises with continued anthropogenic emissions, the occurrence of Zn/C co-limitation will become rarer, impacting the biogeochemical cycling of Zn and other trace metal micronutrients.

The Importance of Contemporaneous Wind and pCO2 Measurements for Regional Air‐Sea CO2 Flux Estimates

AbstractFew observational platforms are able to sustain direct measurements of all the key variables needed in the bulk calculation of air‐sea carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange, a capability newly established for some Uncrewed Surface Vehicles (USVs). Western boundary currents are particularly challenging observational regions due to strong variability and dangerous sea states but are also known hot spots for CO2 uptake, making air‐sea exchange quantification in this region both difficult and important. Here, we present new observations collected by Saildrone USVs in the Gulf Stream during the winters of 2019 and 2022. We compared Saildrone data across co‐located vehicles and against the Pioneer Array moorings to validate the data quality. We explored how CO2 flux estimates differ when all variables needed to calculate fluxes from the bulk formulas are simultaneously measured on the same platform, relative to the situation where in situ observations must be combined with publicly‐available data products. We systematically replaced variables in the bulk formula with those often used for local and regional flux estimates. The analysis revealed that when using the ERA‐5 reanalysis wind speed in place of in situ observations, the ocean uptake of CO2 is underestimated by 8%; this underestimate grows to 9% if the NOAA Marine Boundary Layer atmospheric CO2 product and ERA‐5 significant wave height are also used in place of in situ observations. Overall our findings point to the importance of collecting contemporaneous observations of wind speed and ocean pCO2 to reduce biases in estimates of regional CO2 flux, especially during high wind events.

Assessing improvements in global ocean pCO2 machine learning reconstructions with Southern Ocean autonomous sampling

Abstract. The Southern Ocean plays an important role in the exchange of carbon between the atmosphere and oceans and is a critical region for the ocean uptake of anthropogenic CO2. However, estimates of the Southern Ocean air–sea CO2 flux are highly uncertain due to limited data coverage. Increased sampling in winter and across meridional gradients in the Southern Ocean may improve machine learning (ML) reconstructions of global surface ocean pCO2. Here, we use a large ensemble test bed (LET) of Earth system models and the “pCO2-Residual” reconstruction method to assess improvements in pCO2 reconstruction fidelity that could be achieved with additional autonomous sampling in the Southern Ocean added to existing Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT) observations. The LET allows for a robust evaluation of the skill of pCO2 reconstructions in space and time through comparison to “model truth”. With only SOCAT sampling, Southern Ocean and global pCO2 are overestimated, and thus the ocean carbon sink is underestimated. Incorporating uncrewed surface vehicle (USV) sampling increases the spatial and seasonal coverage of observations within the Southern Ocean, leading to a decrease in the overestimation of pCO2. A modest number of additional observations in Southern Hemisphere winter and across meridional gradients in the Southern Ocean leads to an improvement in reconstruction bias and root-mean-squared error (RMSE) of as much as 86 % and 16 %, respectively, as compared to SOCAT sampling alone. Lastly, the large decadal variability of air–sea CO2 fluxes shown by SOCAT-only sampling may be partially attributable to undersampling of the Southern Ocean.

Weakening Indian Ocean carbon uptake in 2015: The role of amplified basin‐wide warming and reduced Indonesian throughflow

AbstractIn 2015, the Indian Ocean exhibits an exceptionally weakened CO2 uptake, highlighting strong interannual variability of ocean carbon sink. By utilizing multiple ocean CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) data and a state‐of‐the‐art ocean biogeochemical model, we show that the 2015 ocean CO2 anomaly is characterized by a basin‐wide amplification of ocean pCO2, differing from ocean pCO2 responses to other Indian Ocean Dipole events (e.g., 1997 and 2019). The distinct ocean pCO2 anomaly is attributed to an amplified warming and an unprecedented weakening Indonesian Throughflow under the influence of co‐occurrence of positive IOD and extreme El Niño in 2015. The amplified warming drives higher ocean pCO2 in the western and central Indian Ocean, while the ITF transports anomalously high ocean pCO2 water from the Pacific Ocean to the southeastern Indian Ocean. This newly identified ocean carbon response provides deeper insights into the Indian Ocean carbon interannual variability.

Assessing transient changes in the ocean carbon cycle during the last deglaciation through carbon isotope modeling

Abstract. Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (pCO2) has increased by approximately 80 ppm from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the early Holocene. The change in this atmospheric greenhouse gas is recognized as a climate system response to gradual change in insolation. Previous modeling studies suggested that the deglacial increase in atmospheric pCO2 is primarily attributed to the release of CO2 from the ocean. Additionally, it has been suggested that abrupt change in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and associated interhemispheric climate changes are involved in the release of CO2. However, understanding remains limited regarding oceanic circulation changes and the factors responsible for changes in chemical tracers in the ocean during the last deglaciation and their impact on atmospheric pCO2. In this study, we investigate the evolution of the ocean carbon cycle during the last deglaciation (21 to 11 ka BP) using three-dimensional ocean fields from the transient simulation of the MIROC 4m climate model, which exhibits abrupt AMOC changes similar to those observed in reconstructions. We investigate the reliability of simulated changes in the ocean carbon cycle by comparing the simulated carbon isotope ratios with sediment core data, and we examine potential biases and overlooked or underestimated processes in the model. Qualitatively, the modeled changes in atmospheric pCO2 are consistent with ice core records. For example, during Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1), atmospheric pCO2 increases by 10.2 ppm, followed by a reduction of 7.0 ppm during the Bølling–Allerød (BA) period and then by an increase of 6.8 ppm during the Younger Dryas (YD) period. However, the model underestimates the changes in atmospheric pCO2 during these events compared to values derived from ice core data. Radiocarbon and stable isotope signatures (Δ14C and δ13C) indicate that the model underestimates both the activated deep-ocean ventilation and reduced efficiency of biological carbon export in the Southern Ocean and the active ventilation in the North Pacific Intermediate Water (NPIW) during HS1. The relatively small changes in simulated atmospheric pCO2 during HS1 might be attributable to these underestimations of ocean circulation variation. The changes in Δ14C associated with strengthening and weakening of the AMOC during the BA and YD periods are generally consistent with values derived from sediment core records. However, although the data indicate continuous increase in δ13C in the deep ocean throughout the YD period, the model shows the opposite trend. It suggests that the model either simulates excessive weakening of the AMOC during the YD period or has limited representation of geochemical processes, including marine ecosystem response and terrestrial carbon storage. Decomposing the factors behind the changes in ocean pCO2 reveals that variations in temperature and alkalinity have the greatest impact on change in atmospheric pCO2. Compensation for the effects of temperature and alkalinity suggests that the AMOC changes and the associated bipolar climate changes contribute to the decrease in atmospheric pCO2 during the BA and the increase in atmospheric pCO2 during the YD period.

Assessment of Global Ocean Biogeochemistry Models for Ocean Carbon Sink Estimates in RECCAP2 and Recommendations for Future Studies

AbstractThe ocean is a major carbon sink and takes up 25%–30% of the anthropogenically emitted CO2. A state‐of‐the‐art method to quantify this sink are global ocean biogeochemistry models (GOBMs), but their simulated CO2 uptake differs between models and is systematically lower than estimates based on statistical methods using surface ocean pCO2 and interior ocean measurements. Here, we provide an in‐depth evaluation of ocean carbon sink estimates from 1980 to 2018 from a GOBM ensemble. As sources of inter‐model differences and ensemble‐mean biases our study identifies (a) the model setup, such as the length of the spin‐up, the starting date of the simulation, and carbon fluxes from rivers and into sediments, (b) the simulated ocean circulation, such as Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and Southern Ocean mode and intermediate water formation, and (c) the simulated oceanic buffer capacity. Our analysis suggests that a late starting date and biases in the ocean circulation cause a too low anthropogenic CO2 uptake across the GOBM ensemble. Surface ocean biogeochemistry biases might also cause simulated anthropogenic fluxes to be too low, but the current setup prevents a robust assessment. For simulations of the ocean carbon sink, we recommend in the short‐term to (a) start simulations at a common date before the industrialization and the associated atmospheric CO2 increase, (b) conduct a sufficiently long spin‐up such that the GOBMs reach steady‐state, and (c) provide key metrics for circulation, biogeochemistry, and the land‐ocean interface. In the long‐term, we recommend improving the representation of these metrics in the GOBMs.

What goes in must come out: the oceanic outgassing of anthropogenic carbon

About 25% of the emitted anthropogenic CO2 is absorbed by the ocean and transported to the interior through key gateways, such as the Southern Ocean or the North Atlantic. Over the next few centuries, anthropogenic CO2 is then redistributed by ocean circulation and stored mostly in the upper layers of the subtropical gyres. Because of the combined effects of (i) weakening buffering capacity, (ii) warming-induced lower solubility, (iii) changes in wind stress and (iv) changes in ocean circulation, there is a high confidence that the ocean sink will weaken in the future. Here, we use IPCC-class Earth System Model (ESM) simulations following the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 climate change scenarios extended to the year 2300 to reveal that anthropogenic CO2 begins to outgas in the subtropical gyres of both hemispheres during the summer months of the 21st century. In 2100, about 53% of the surface ocean experience outgassing at least one month in a year in SSP1-2.6, against 37% in SSP5-8.5. After 2100, this fraction keeps increasing, reaching 63% by 2300 in SSP5-8.5 while stabilizing at 55% in SSP1-2.6. This outgassing pattern is driven by the rapid increase in oceanic pCO2, faster than the atmospheric pCO2, due to the combined effect of both rapid warming and long-term accumulation of anthropogenic carbon in these regions. These findings call for increased observation efforts in these areas, particularly in the subtropical gyres of the Southern Hemisphere, in order to detect future release of anthropogenic carbon and accurately constrain the future carbon budget.

Spatiotemporal reconstruction of global ocean surface pCO2 based on optimized random forest

The partial pressure of ocean surface CO2 (pCO2) plays an important role in quantifying the carbon budget and assessing ocean acidification. For such a vast and complex ocean system as the global ocean, most current research practices tend to study the ocean into regions. In order to reveal the overall characteristics of the global ocean and avoid mutual influence between zones, a holistic research method was used to detect the correlation of twelve predictive factors, including chlorophyll concentration (Chlor_a), diffuse attenuation coefficient at 490 nm (Kd_490), density ocean mixed layer thickness (Mlotst), eastward velocity (East), northward velocity (North), salinity (Sal), temperature (Temp), dissolved iron (Fe), dissolved silicate (Si), nitrate (NO3), potential of hydrogen (pH), phosphate (PO4), at the global ocean scale. Based on measured data from the Global Surface pCO2 (LDEO) database, combined with National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Ocean Color satellite data and Copernicus Ocean reanalysis data, an improved optimized random forest (ORF) method is proposed for the overall reconstruction of global ocean surface pCO2, and compared with various machine learning methods. The results indicate that the ORF method is the most accurate in overall modeling at the global ocean scale (mean absolute error of 6.27μatm, root mean square error of 15.34μatm, R2 of 0.92). Based on independent observations from the LDEO dataset and time series observation stations, the ORF model was further validated, and the global ocean surface pCO2 distribution map of 0.25° × 0.25° for 2010 to 2019 was reconstructed, which is of significance for the global ocean carbon cycle and carbon assessment.

Nanogram-scale boron isotope analysis through micro-distillation and Nu Plasma 3 MC-ICP-MS

The determination of boron isotopes (δ11B) represents a powerful tool for a variety of applications such as the reconstruction of past ocean pH and atmospheric pCO2 from the analysis of marine biogenic carbonates. In recent years, MC-ICP-MS has gained popularity over other techniques thanks to its superior sample throughput and high ionization efficiency. This study evaluates, for the first time, the performance of the Nu Instruments Plasma 3 MC-ICP-MS for measuring δ11B using different sample introduction systems and detector configurations. The main goal is to provide a detailed methodology for nanogram-scale boron isotope analysis through a straightforward approach that can be easily adopted. Boron (B) purification from the carbonate matrix was performed through micro-distillation, using a temperature of 95 °C and a minimum heating duration of 15 h, allowing the full recovery of B from up to 3 mg of carbonate mass. We attained blank values (on average 14 ± 6 pg, 1 SD, n = 27) comparable to the lowest micro-distillation blanks reported in the literature. Three sample introduction systems were tested, and the 30 μL min−1 nebuliser system outperformed the 50 and 170 μL min−1 systems in terms of signal intensity per mass of B. Two detector configurations were used based on the total boron signal intensity achieved: (1) FC11/FC12, with two Faraday cups fitted to 1011 Ω and 1012 Ω amplifier resistors to detect 11B and 10B ion beams, respectively, and (2) FC12/IC, with which we investigated, for the first time, the feasibility of combining an ion counter for detecting 10B, and a Faraday cup fitted to a 1012 Ω amplifier for 11B. The FC12/IC configuration provided accurate results compared to the use of two Faraday cups for total boron signals lower than 0.35 V (∼12 ng of B in the analysed solution). The proposed analytical procedure was validated through the analysis of several reference materials with varying boron amounts, including clam JCt-1, coral JCp-1, NIST RM 8301 Foram and Coral solutions, and boric acid ERM-AE121. Furthermore, the long-term reproducibility was assessed with two in-house standards (coral CLD-1 and foraminifera GINF-1), providing values of 25.68 ± 0.23 ‰ (2SD, n = 53; with 14–36 ng of B) and 14.90 ± 0.16 ‰ (2SD, n = 12; with 11–16 ng of B), respectively.

Amplified Subsurface Signals of Ocean Acidification

AbstractWe evaluate the impact of anthropogenic carbon (Cant) accumulation on multiple ocean acidification (OA) metrics throughout the water column and across the major ocean basins using the GLODAPv2.2016b mapped product. OA is largely considered a surface‐intensified process caused by the air‐to‐sea transfer of Cant; however, we find that the partial pressure of carbon dioxide gas (pCO2), Revelle sensitivity Factor (RF), and hydrogen ion concentration ([H+]) exhibit their largest responses to Cant well below the surface (>100 m). This is because subsurface seawater is usually less well‐buffered than surface seawater due to the accumulation of natural carbon from organic matter remineralization. pH and aragonite saturation state (ΩAr) do not exhibit spatially coherent amplified subsurface responses to Cant accumulation in the GLODAPv2.2016b mapped product, though nonlinear characteristics of the carbonate system work to amplify subsurface changes in each OA metric evaluated except ΩAr. Regional variability in the vertical gradients of natural and anthropogenic carbon create regional hot spots of subsurface intensified OA metric changes, with implications for vertical shifts in biologically relevant chemical thresholds. Cant accumulation has resulted in subsurface pCO2, RF, and [H+] changes that significantly exceed their respective surface change magnitudes, sometimes by >100%, throughout large expanses of the ocean. Such interior ocean pCO2 changes are outpacing the atmospheric pCO2 change that drives OA itself. Re‐emergence of these waters at the sea surface could lead to elevated CO2 evasion rates and reduced ocean carbon storage efficiency in high‐latitude regions where waters do not have time to fully equilibrate with the atmosphere before subduction.

Observed amplification of the seasonal CO2 cycle at the Southern Ocean Time Series

The Subantarctic Zone, the circumpolar region of the Southern Ocean between the Subtropical and Subantarctic fronts, plays an important role in air-sea CO2 exchange, the storage of anthropogenic CO2, and the ventilation of the lower thermocline. Here we use a time series from moored platforms deployed between 2011 and 2021 as part of the Southern Ocean Time Series (SOTS) observatory to investigate the seasonality and interannual variability of upper ocean hydrography and seawater CO2 partial pressure (pCO2). The region is a net sink for atmospheric CO2 over the nearly 10-year record, with trends revealing that the ocean pCO2 may be increasing slightly faster than the atmosphere, suggesting that oceanic as well as anthropogenic atmospheric forcing contributes to the decadal change, which includes a decline in pH on the order of 0.003 yr−1. The observations also show an amplification of the seasonal cycle in pCO2, potentially linked to changes in mixed layer depth and biological productivity.

Calibrating Non‐Thermal Effects on Planktic Foraminiferal Mg/Ca for Application Across the Cenozoic

AbstractForaminiferal Mg/Ca has proven to be a powerful paleothermometer for reconstructing past sea‐surface temperature, which, among other applications, is a critical parameter for boron isotope reconstructions of past surface ocean pH and PCO2. However, recent laboratory culture studies indicate seawater pH and the total dissolved inorganic carbon content (DIC) may both exert a significant additional control on foraminiferal Mg/Ca, likely influencing paleotemperature records as a result of seawater chemistry evolution on geologic timescales. In addition, the seawater Mg/Ca composition (Mg/Casw) has been shown to reduce the sensitivity of foraminiferal Mg/Ca to temperature and possibly its sensitivity to the carbonate system as well. Here we present new Mg/Ca data from laboratory culture experiments with living planktic foraminifera— Globigerinoides ruber (p), Trilobatus sacculifer, and Orbulina universa— grown under a range of different pH and/or seawater DIC conditions and in low Mg/Casw to mimic the chemical composition of the Paleocene ocean. We also conducted targeted [Ca] experiments to help define Mg/Cacalcite–Mg/Casw relationships for each species and conducted new pH experiments with G. bulloides. We find that pH effects on foraminiferal Mg/Ca are reduced or absent at Mg/Casw = 1.5 mol/mol in all three species, and that T. sacculifer is generally insensitive to variable DIC and pH, making it the ideal species for Mg/Ca SST reconstructions back to 20 Ma. We apply our new T. sacculifer calibration to a Middle Miocene Mg/Ca record and provide recommendations for interpreting Mg/Ca records from extinct species.

Estimating marine carbon uptake in the northeast Pacific using a neural network approach

Abstract. The global ocean takes up nearly a quarter of anthropogenic CO2 emissions annually, but the variability in this uptake at regional scales remains poorly understood. Here we use a neural network approach to interpolate sparse observations, creating a monthly gridded seawater partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) data product from January 1998 to December 2019, at 1/12∘ × 1/12∘ spatial resolution, in the northeast Pacific open ocean, a net sink region. The data product (ANN-NEP; NCEI Accession 0277836) was created from pCO2 observations within the 2021 version of the Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT) and a range of predictor variables acting as proxies for processes affecting pCO2 to create nonlinear relationships to interpolate observations at a spatial resolution 4 times greater than leading global products and with better overall performance. In moving to a higher resolution, we show that the internal division of training data is the most important parameter for reducing overfitting. Using our pCO2 product, wind speed, and atmospheric CO2, we evaluate air–sea CO2 flux variability. On sub-decadal to decadal timescales, we find that the upwelling strength of the subpolar Alaskan Gyre, driven by large-scale atmospheric forcing, acts as the primary control on air–sea CO2 flux variability (r2=0.93, p<0.01). In the northern part of our study region, divergence from atmospheric CO2 is enhanced by increased local wind stress curl, enhancing upwelling and entrainment of naturally CO2-rich subsurface waters, leading to decade-long intervals of strong winter outgassing. During recent Pacific marine heat waves from 2013 on, we find enhanced atmospheric CO2 uptake (by as much as 45 %) due to limited wintertime entrainment. Our product estimates long-term surface ocean pCO2 increase at a rate below the atmospheric trend (1.4 ± 0.1 µatm yr−1) with the slowest increase in the center of the subpolar gyre where there is strong interaction with subsurface waters. This mismatch suggests the northeast Pacific Ocean sink for atmospheric CO2 may be increasing.

Seasonal Variability of the Surface Ocean Carbon Cycle: A Synthesis

AbstractThe seasonal cycle is the dominant mode of variability in the air‐sea CO2 flux in most regions of the global ocean, yet discrepancies between different seasonality estimates are rather large. As part of the Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes Phase 2 project (RECCAP2), we synthesize surface ocean pCO2 and air‐sea CO2 flux seasonality from models and observation‐based estimates, focusing on both a present‐day climatology and decadal changes between the 1980s and 2010s. Four main findings emerge: First, global ocean biogeochemistry models (GOBMs) and observation‐based estimates (pCO2 products) of surface pCO2 seasonality disagree in amplitude and phase, primarily due to discrepancies in the seasonal variability in surface DIC. Second, the seasonal cycle in pCO2 has increased in amplitude over the last three decades in both pCO2 products and GOBMs. Third, decadal increases in pCO2 seasonal cycle amplitudes in subtropical biomes for both pCO2 products and GOBMs are driven by increasing DIC concentrations stemming from the uptake of anthropogenic CO2 (Cant). In subpolar and Southern Ocean biomes, however, the seasonality change for GOBMs is dominated by Cant invasion, whereas for pCO2 products an indeterminate combination of Cant invasion and climate change modulates the changes. Fourth, biome‐aggregated decadal changes in the amplitude of pCO2 seasonal variability are largely detectable against both mapping uncertainty (reducible) and natural variability uncertainty (irreducible), but not at the gridpoint scale over much of the northern subpolar oceans and over the Southern Ocean, underscoring the importance of sustained high‐quality seasonally resolved measurements over these regions.

Variability and controls of the ocean acidification metrics pH and pCO2 in a large embayment of an Eastern Boundary Upwelling System (EBUS)

An assessment was undertaken of the spatial and temporal variability of pCO2 and pH in St Helena Bay, a highly productive, wide-open bay located in the Benguela, a major eastern boundary upwelling system (EBUS). Mechanisms controlling their patterns of variability and their linkage to the distribution of oxygen are explored. The mean surface pCO2 was 385 μatm, below the mean atmospheric concentration of 410 μatm, indicative of a system serving as a CO2 sink. The corresponding mean pH of bay surface waters was 8.3. The greatest variation from these means was driven by deep winter mixing causing a seasonal reversal of the air-sea pCO2 gradient. Mean surface pCO2 was also elevated above mean atmospheric levels in the nearshore (<15 m depth), a likely consequence of higher microbial respiration in the upper water column due to regular resuspension of detrital material. The nearshore of the bay is also sometimes subject to high biomass dinoflagellate blooms referred to as red tides, and their decay leads to exceptional pCO2 concentrations. Discharge from the Berg River and the associated degradation of terrestrially derived organic matter also contributes to higher pCO2 in the nearshore particularly during winter when rainfall is highest. Through the water column the important role of photosynthesis in determining the vertical distribution of pCO2 is evident in that pCO2 is shown to be a function of both Chl a and PAR. In St Helena Bay nearly 50% of water column biomass is located below the community compensation depth (i.e. where respiration carbon loss exceeds gross community production) leading to rapidly declining O2 and increasing pCO2 concentrations with depth. Resulting conditions of bottom water hypoxia/anoxia are therefore accompanied by more corrosive waters (pH declining to ∼7.4) and conditions of severe hypercapnia (pCO2 exceeding 2000 μatm) subjecting marine life to multiple stressors. St Helena Bay and similar bays in EBUS are likely to provide extrema in the deoxygenation and acidification of coastal waters.