Ocean Data Assimilation Product Research Articles

The North Pacific Gyre Oscillation and Mechanisms of Its Decadal Variability in CMIP5 Models

AbstractBased on the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) product and 37 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) database, the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) and its decadal generation mechanisms are evaluated by studying the second leading modes of North Pacific sea surface height (SSH) and sea level pressure (SLP) as well as their dynamical connections. It is found that 17 out of 37 models can well simulate the spatial pattern and decadal time scales (10–30 yr) of the NPGO mode, which resembles the observation-based SODA results. Dynamical connections between the oceanic mode (NPGO) and the atmospheric mode [North Pacific Oscillation (NPO)] are strongly evident in both SODA and the 17 models. In particular, about 30%–40% of the variance of the NPGO variability, which generally exhibits a preferred time scale, can be explained by the NPO variability, which has no preferred time scale in most models.Two mechanisms of the decadal NPGO variability that had been proposed by previous studies are evaluated in SODA and the 17 models: 1) stochastic atmospheric forcing and oceanic spatial resonance and 2) low-frequency atmospheric teleconnections excited by the equatorial Pacific. Evaluation reveals that these two mechanisms are valid in SODA and two models (CNRM-CM5 and CNRM-CM5.2), whereas two models (CMCC-CM and CMCC-CMS) prefer the first mechanism and another two models (CMCC-CESM and IPSL-CM5B-LR) prefer the second mechanism. The other 11 models have no evident relations with the proposed two mechanisms, suggesting the need for a fundamental understanding of the decadal NPGO variability in the future.

Relations between salinity in the northwestern Bering Sea, the Bering Strait throughflow and sea surface height in the Arctic Ocean

The correlation between transport via the Bering Strait throughflow (BTF) and sea surface salinity (SSS) in the Bering Sea has been examined mainly using an atmosphere–ocean–ice coupled climate model that has an eddy-permitting ocean component. The SSS anomaly in the northwestern Bering Sea is high from winter to spring when the BTF transport anomaly is large in the cold season. Similar features can be seen in an observation dataset and two kinds of ocean data assimilation product. BTF transport is strongly correlated with sea surface height (SSH) in the northeastern Bering Sea, the southwestern Chukchi Sea and the East Siberian Sea. The SSH along the Russian coast in the Arctic Ocean is uncorrelated with the SSH in the Bering Sea, the meaning being that the Arctic SSH affects the BTF and the SSS independently of the SSH in the Bering Sea. The low SSH along the Siberian coast is correlated with easterly wind anomalies over the Laptev Sea and north of the New Siberian Islands. The relationship between the low Siberian-coast SSH and the high SSS in the Bering Sea, however, is not confirmed in 10 years of satellite-derived SSH. Mixed-layer salt budget analysis has revealed that the high SSS anomalies are mainly caused by the increases of horizontal advective salt convergence north of 62.5°N, and by the decreases of sea-ice melting south of 62.5°N, through the strengthening of the near-surface northeastward currents. In the warm season, these two factors fade and the salinization disappears.

Trends of the Pathways and Intensities of Surface Equatorial Current System in the North Pacific Ocean

Abstract An ensemble of ocean reanalysis products is utilized to quantify the long-term tendencies of pathways and along-pathway transports of the three surface equatorial currents (North Equatorial Current, North Equatorial Countercurrent, and northern branch of the South Equatorial Current) in the North Pacific Ocean during the period of the 1900s–2000s. This study uses 12 ocean reanalysis products in the ensemble for the period after the 1960s, while only 2 Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) products are taken into consideration for the period prior to 1960s. The analyses indicate that the three currents in the western (eastern) Pacific Ocean have more southern (northern) mean central positions and tend to move southward (northward) over the past 100 years. All three currents have weakening tendencies, with the exception of the North Equatorial Current having intensified in the western Pacific Ocean. The Sverdrup dynamics, which directly relates the wind-driven circulation in the interior ocean to wind stress curl and Earth rotation, can be applied to simply address the long-term changes of intensities and pathways of the three surface currents in the tropical North Pacific Ocean.

The mean properties and variations of the Southern Hemisphere subpolar gyres estimated by Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) products

Based on the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) products, we study the mean properties and variations of the Southern Hemisphere subpolar gyres (SHSGs) in this paper. The results show that the gyre strengths in the SODA estimates are (55.9±9.8)×106 m3/s for the Weddell Gyre (WG), (37.0±6.4)×106 m3/s for the Ross Gyre (RG), and (27.5±8.2)×106 m3/s for the Australian-Antarctic Gyre (AG), respectively. There exists distinct connectivity between the adjacent gyres and then forms an oceanic super gyre structure in the southern subpolar oceans. And the interior exchanges are about (8.0±3.2)×106 m3/s at around 70°E and (4.3±3.1)×106 m3/s at around 140°E. The most pronounced variation for all three SHSGs occurs on the seasonal time scale, with generally stronger (weaker) SHSGs during austral winter (summer). And the seasonal changes of the gyre structures show that the eastern boundary of the WG and AG extends considerably further east during winter and the interior exchange in the super gyre structure increases accordingly. The WG and RG also show significant semi-annual changes. The correlation analyses confirm that the variations of the gyre strengths are strongly correlated with the changes in the local wind forcing on the semi-annual and seasonal time scales.

Seasonal variability of the meridional overturning circulation in the South China Sea and its connection with inter‐ocean transport based on SODA2.2.4

AbstractWe have proposed a five‐layer‐scheme to investigate the volume transport through the South China Sea (SCS) based on the updated Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA2.2.4) product. By demonstrating horizontal transport in each layer, we have revealed different formation mechanisms for the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) in winter and summer in the SCS. Our analysis suggests three meridional circulation systems in the SCS: (1) the seasonal monsoon‐driven circulation in the surface layer, i.e., southward circulation in winter and northward in summer, (2) the compensatory transport‐induced seasonal intermediate MOC in the central SCS, and (3) the persistent deep MOC in the southern SCS all year round. By examining vertical velocity distribution, we have identified that the major overturning process of the intermediate MOC is located along the continental slope east and southeast of Vietnam, while the major overturning process of the deep MOC is located along the continental slope northwest of Borneo. The downwelling in the intermediate MOC in winter and upwelling in the deep MOC all year round bring different water masses to the intermediate and subintermediate layers to be mixed in the SCS. We found no evidence to suggest that the strength and extent of the MOC south of 18°N are related to inter‐ocean volume transport. The surface layer transport in the Luzon Strait has been decreasing since the 1960s. However, the causes of the meridionally staggered and interdecadal alternating acceleration/slowdown of the meridional stream function difference are unknown.

Low-frequency variability of the shallow meridional overturning circulation in the South China Sea

The low-frequency variability of the shallow meridional overturning circulation (MOC) in the South China Sea (SCS) is investigated using a Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) product for the period of 1900–2010. A dynamical decomposition method is used in which the MOC is decomposed into the Ekman, external mode, and vertical shear components. Results show that all the three dynamical components contribute to the formation of the seasonal and annual mean shallow MOC in the SCS. The shallow MOC in the SCS consists of two cells: a clockwise cell in the south and an anticlockwise cell in the north; the former is controlled by the Ekman flow and the latter is dominated by the external barotropic flow, with the contribution of the vertical shear being to reduce the magnitude of both cells. In addition, the strength of the MOC in the south is found to have a falling trend over the past century, due mainly to a weakening of the Luzon Strait transport (LST) that reduces the transport of the external component. Further analysis suggests that the weakening of the LST is closely related to a weakening of the westerly wind anomalies over the equatorial Pacific, which leads to a southward shift of the North Equatorial Current (NEC) bifurcation and thus a stronger transport of the Kuroshio east of Luzon.

Correlation analysis of the North Equatorial Current bifurcation and the Indonesian Throughflow

Based on monthly mean Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) products from 1958 to 2007, this study analyzes the seasonal and interannual variability of the North Equatorial Current (NEC) bifurcation latitude and the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) volume transport. Further, Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) method and lag-correlation analysis are employed to reveal the relationships between the NEC bifurcation location, NEC and ITF volume transport and ENSO events. The analysis results of the seasonal variability show that the annual mean location of NEC bifurcation in upper layer occurs at 14.33°N and ITF volume transport has a maximum value in summer, a minimum value in winter and an annual mean transport of 7.75×106 m3/s. The interannual variability analysis indicates that the variability of NEC bifurcation location can be treated as a precursor of El Nino. The correlation coefficient between the two reaches the maximum of 0.53 with a time lag of 2 months. The ITF volume transport is positively related with El Nino events with a maximum coefficient of 0.60 by 3 months. The NEC bifurcation location is positively correlated with the ITF volume transport with a correlation coefficient of 0.43.

Possible link between interannual variation of neon flying squid (Ommastrephes bartramii) abundance in the North Pacific and the climate phase shift in 1998/1999

The relationship between interannual variation in abundance of the autumn cohort of the neon flying squid (Ommastrephes bartramii) and ocean environmental changes in the central North Pacific was examined. We focused on the change in subsurface ocean state during the 1998/1999 climate shift. Changes in catch per unit effort (CPUE) of the neon flying squid derived from long-term driftnet survey was compared to that in ocean environments related to the feeding conditions of the squid. A four-dimensional variational (4D-VAR) ocean data assimilation product was used as an accurate estimate of the dynamic state in the North Pacific. Correlation analysis indicated that the squid CPUE was highly related with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in winter. In January, the correlation field with the entrainment rate (ENT), the proxy for the nutrient-rich water supply entering the mixed layer, showed a good agreement with the main spawning and nursery ground of the autumn cohort (MSNGAC). The nutrient-rich water supply in the MSNGAC in early winter was mainly induced by the deepening of the mixed layer forced by surface latent heat cooling and turbulent mixing, while the basin-scale wind stress curl and the horizontal advection were less affected. These results suggest that the amount of newly supplied nutrient-rich water mass in early winter could affect the primary productivity throughout the winter and the resultant feeding conditions of the juvenile squid. We assumed that this process would determine the stock levels of the neon flying squid in the following summer. We further attempted to reconstruct the changes in neon flying squid CPUE during 1994–2006 by applying regression analysis to several parameters. The result showed that ENT, surface and subsurface temperatures, and the PDO index in February were good predictors for estimating the squid CPUE time series. In addition, the subsurface temperature in the MSNGAC in the preceding autumn was also a good predictor. This indicates that the squid CPUE could be predicted four months earlier than its nursery period, as the same accuracy as that using February data. The accurate prediction in early period could be useful for the squid stock management in the future.

Decadal variability of heat content in the South China Sea inferred from observation data and an ocean data assimilation product

Abstract. Using an observation data set of temperature and the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA), the decadal variability of upper ocean heat content (0–400 m; hereafter, OHC) in the South China Sea (SCS) was investigated for the period from 1958 to 2007. Decadal variability was identified as the dominant mode of upper OHC besides the seasonal cycle. According to decreasing or increasing OHC, four periods were chosen to discuss detailed processes behind OHC variability in the SCS; the four periods are 1958–1968, 1969–1981, 1982–1992, and 1993–2003. Results show that advection was the major factor for decreasing (increasing) OHC during 1958–1968 (1968–1981). During 1982–1992 and 1993–2003, the net surface heat flux was the main contributor to the variability of OHC besides the advection. The OHC, advection and net surface heat flux had significant positive trends during 1992–2003. The spatial characteristics of OHC variability and heat budget in the Luzon Strait, west of Luzon Island, and in the Xisha warm eddy region are also discussed.

Decadal climate predictions with a coupled OAGCM initialized with oceanic reanalyses

We investigate the effects of realistic oceanic initial conditions on a set of decadal climate predictions performed with a state-of-the-art coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. The decadal predictions are performed in both retrospective (hindcast) and forecast modes. Specifically, the full set of prediction experiments consists of 3-member ensembles of 30-year simulations, starting at 5-year intervals from 1960 to 2005, using historical radiative forcing conditions for the 1960–2005 period, followed by RCP4.5 scenario settings for the 2006–2035 period. The ocean initial states are provided by ocean reanalyses differing by assimilation methods and assimilated data, but obtained with the same ocean model. The use of alternative ocean reanalyses yields the required perturbation of the full three-dimensional ocean state aimed at generating the ensemble members spread. A full-value initialization technique is adopted. The predictive skill of the system appears to be driven to large extent by trends in the radiative forcing. However, after detrending, a residual skill over specific regions of the ocean emerges in the near-term. Specifically, natural fluctuations in the North Atlantic sea-surface temperature (SST) associated with large-scale multi-decadal variability modes are predictable in the 2–5 year range. This is consistent with significant predictive skill found in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation over a similar timescale. The dependency of forecast skill on ocean initialization is analysed, revealing a strong impact of details of ocean data assimilation products on the system predictive skill. This points to the need of reducing the large uncertainties that currently affect global ocean reanalyses, in the perspective of providing reliable near-term climate predictions.

Trends of upper‐layer circulation in the South China Sea during 1959–2008

In this paper, the trend of upper‐layer circulation in the South China Sea (SCS) is studied based on the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation product for 1959–2008. It is found that the basin‐averaged SST in winter displays a warming rate close to the global mean value while it does not have significant trend in summer. The upper‐layer circulation in the SCS has been weakened in winter by 10% over this period, while in summer it tends to be more energetic. Further analyses suggest that the weakening of the winter SCS ocean circulation in winter is associated with weakening of the East Asian monsoon over recent decades. Moreover, an eastward retreat of the anti‐cyclonic “Kuroshio loop” from the SCS is found, which may be due to an intensification of the Kuroshio transport in the past 50 years.

Northward expansion of the western Pacific Warm Pool in late 1990s and early 2000s

Based on 48-year (1958-2006) ocean reanalysis data of Simple Ocean Data Assimilation and 23-year (1984-2006) global ocean-surface heat flux products developed by the Objectively Analyzed Air-Sea Heat Flux Project, meridional variation of the western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) is addressed. The results show that there is a significant expansion of the northern edge of the WPWP in the late 1990s and early 2000s. This variation is mainly within 120A degrees E-160A degrees E by 8A degrees N-20A degrees N, we define this region (120A degrees E-1 by 8A degrees N-20A degrees N) as the core region. Furthermore, analyses on upper ocean heat budget show that the short wave radiation plays a key role in the northward expansion of the northern edge of the WPWP in the core region. It is proved that the northward expansion may be caused by the change of the mixed layer which became shallower in 1994-2006 compared with 1984-1993 in the study region. The short wave radiation flux distribution within the shallower mixed layer leads to a positive anomaly in seawater temperature, promoting the northward expansion of the WPWP.

Sea Surface Height Variability in the Tropical Indian Ocean: Steric Contribution

Variability of Sea level and its steric contribution in the Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) was studied based on 15 years (1993–2007) satellite altimeter observations of sea surface height (SSH) anomaly and steric height (STH) anomaly computed using temperature and salinity fields obtained from Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) product. Complex Empirical Orthogonal Function (CEOF) analysis was carried out to decompose variability of SSH and STH into various modes to examine the coherency between them. It is revealed that both the parameters exhibit variability in all the time scales. First three major modes of CEOF corresponds to 90% and 84% of the total variability of SSH and STH respectively. There exists strong coherence between the respective CEOF modes of SSH and STH. The first mode of CEOF contributes around ~50% of the total signal corresponds to the annual cycle exhibit large variability in the western Arabian Sea along the Somali and Arabia Coast, latitudinal strip between 2 and 10°N extending from Somali-coast to the west coast of India, coastal oceans around India, and the south eastern TIO. The second CEOF with 25% of total signal contains mixed signature of intra-seasonal and inter-annual periodicities. This exhibit large amplitude in the central south TIO, western and eastern parts of Equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO). Computed long term linear growth rate of sea level anomaly suggests that increase of sea level varies from small (1–3 mm yr−1) in the north TIO to large (8 mm yr−1) in the south TIO. Further analysis suggests that SSH trend in the south TIO was mostly governed by steric contribution while the variability of SSH trend in the north TIO could be explained partially by the variability in STH.

Macro- and micro-nutrient flux to a highly productive submarine bank in the Gulf of Alaska: A model-based analysis of daily and interannual variability

Although the Gulf of Alaska is subjected to intense downwelling through much of the year, during early spring and summer, upwelling due to local wind stress curl can occur over major portions of the shelf, resulting in high production. Satellite observations indicate that shallow banks may have substantially elevated chlorophyll concentrations relative to surrounding waters during much of the summer. We use the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) and ocean observation data to examine circulation and stratification around Portlock Bank in the Gulf of Alaska, and to explore mechanisms contributing to interannual variability in the supply of iron and nitrate onto the bank in spring and summer. ROMS at 3-km resolution is coupled to a lower trophic level biology model for the Gulf of Alaska; the coupled model is driven by tidal forcing, sub-daily atmospheric forcing, freshwater runoff, and boundary and initial conditions from Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) products. Hydrographic observations were made as part of six surveys undertaken by the GLOBEC/NEP (Global Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics/Northeast Pacific) program. Modeling results suggest that iron supply to the shallow layer around Portlock Bank is controlled by both advection and vertical diffusion processes, while nitrate supply is dominated by tidally-induced vertical diffusion. Overall, higher chlorophyll concentration in summer around Portlock Bank is attributed to strong vertical mixing, which pumps nutrients onto the bank from the flanks on either side, and from the top of the bank into the euphotic zone. Recirculation attributed to tidal effects increases residence time over the bank, further enhancing potential production, but intense mixing atop the bank in early spring can lead to light limitation of phytoplankton production. We used July 2004 cruise data from Portlock Bank to help verify model results.

Why is Indian Ocean warming consistently?

Observations have shown that the Indian Ocean is consistently warming and its warm pool is expanding, particularly in the recent decades. This paper attempts to investigate the reason behind these observations. Under global warming scenario, it is expected that the greenhouse gas induced changes in air–sea fluxes will enhance the warming. Surprisingly, it is found that the net surface heat fluxes over Indian Ocean warm pool (IOWP) region alone cannot explain the consistent warming. The warm pool area anomaly of IOWP is strongly correlated with the sea surface height anomaly, suggesting an important role played by the ocean advection processes in warming and expansion of IOWP. The structure of lead/lag correlations further suggests that Oceanic Rossby waves might be involved in the warming. Using heat budget analysis of several Ocean data assimilation products, it is shown that the net surface heat flux (advection) alone tends to cool (warm) the Ocean. Based on above observations, we propose an ocean-atmosphere coupled positive feedback mechanism for explaining the consistent warming and expansion of IOWP. Warming over IOWP induces an enhancement of convection in central equatorial Indian ocean, which causes anomalous easterlies along the equator. Anomalous easterlies in turn excite frequent Indian ocean Dipole events and cause anti-cyclonic wind stress curl in south-east and north-east equatorial Indian ocean. The anomalous wind stress curl triggers anomalous downwelling oceanic Rossby waves, thereby deepening the thermocline and resulting in advection of warm waters towards western Indian ocean. This acts as a positive feedback and results in more warming and westward expansion of IOWP.

Subsurface ocean temperature indices for Central-Pacific and Eastern-Pacific types of El Niño and La Niña events

Subsurface ocean temperature indices are developed to identify two distinct types of tropical Pacific warming (El Nino) and cooling (La Nina) events: the Eastern-Pacific (EP) type and the Central-Pacific (CP) type. Ocean temperature anomalies in the upper 100 m are averaged over the eastern (80°W–90°W, 5°S–5°N) and central (160°E–150°W, 5°S–5°N) equatorial Pacific to construct the EP and CP subsurface indices, respectively. The analysis is performed for the period of 1958–2001 using an ocean data assimilation product. It is found that the EP/CP subsurface indices are less correlated and show stronger skewness than the sea surface temperature (SST)-based indices. In addition, while both quasi-biennial (∼2 years) and quasi-quadrennial (∼4 years) periodicities appear in the SST-based indices for these two types, the subsurface indices are dominated only by the quasi-biennial periodicity for the CP type and by the quasi-quadrennial (∼4 years) periodicity for the EP type. Low correlation, high skewness, and single leading periodicity are desirable properties for defining indices to separate the EP and CP types. Using the subsurface indices, major El Nino and La Nina events identified by the Nino-3.4 SST index are classified as the EP or CP types for the analysis period. It is found that most strong El Nino events are of the EP type while most strong La Nina events are of the CP type. It is also found that strong CP-type La Nina events tend to occur after strong EP-type El Nino events. The reversed subsequence (i.e., strong EP El Nino events follow strong CP La Nina events) does not appear to be typical. This study shows that subsurface ocean indices are an effective way to identify the EP and CP types of Pacific El Nino and La Nina events.

Seasonal and Monthly Variation of Vertical Structure of Temperature, Salinity and Heat Flux of the Bay of Bengal

Seasonal and monthly variations of heat flux have been investigated in this study using the Modular Ocean Model of version 3 (MOM 3) simulations and 52 years Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) products. These variations of the heat flux in different boxes of the Bay of Bengal (BOB) in different depths show the different behavior of the boxes. It is seen that the model and SODA results are comparable. The basin shows north-south variation in the surface from winter to spring whereas there is east-west variation in the mixed layer throughout the year except winter. The remote effect caused by warm water penetration from Pacific Ocean through the Strait of Malacca and coastal Kelvin waves keeps the basin warm most of the year. This article addresses the mechanisms of the seasonal variation of the vertical structure of the temperature and heat flux components.

Consistency and fidelity of Indonesian-throughflow total volume transport estimated by 14 ocean data assimilation products

Monthly averaged total volume transport of the Indonesian throughflow (ITF) estimated by 14 global ocean data assimilation (ODA) products that are decade to multi-decade long are compared among themselves and with observations from the INSTANT Program (2004–2006). The main goals of the comparisons are to examine the consistency and evaluate the skill of different ODA products in simulating ITF transport. The ensemble averaged, time-mean value of ODA estimates is 13.6 Sv (1 Sv = 10 6 m 3/s) for the common 1993–2001 period and 13.9 Sv for the 2004–2006 INSTANT Program period. These values are close to the 15-Sv estimate derived from INSTANT observations. All but one ODA time-mean estimate fall within the range of uncertainty of the INSTANT estimate. In terms of temporal variability, the scatter among different ODA estimates averaged over time is 1.7 Sv, which is substantially smaller than the magnitude of the temporal variability simulated by the ODA systems. Therefore, the overall “signal-to-noise” ratio for the ensemble estimates is larger than one. The best consistency among the products occurs on seasonal-to-interannual time scales, with generally stronger (weaker) ITF during boreal summer (winter) and during La Nina (El Nino) events. The scatter among different products for seasonal-to-interannual time scales is approximately 1 Sv. Despite the good consistency, systematic difference is found between most ODA products and the INSTANT observations. All but the highest-resolution (18 km) ODA product show a dominant annual cycle while the INSTANT estimate and the 18-km product exhibit a strong semi-annual signal. The coarse resolution is an important factor that limits the level of agreement between ODA and INSTANT estimates. Decadal signals with periods of 10–15 years are seen. The most conspicuous and consistent decadal change is a relatively sharp increase in ITF transport during 1993–2000 associated with the strengthening tropical Pacific trade wind. Most products do not show a weakening ITF after the mid-1970s’ associated with the weakened Pacific trade wind. The scatter of ODA estimates is smaller after than before 1980, reflecting the impact of the enhanced observations after the 1980s. To assess the representativeness of using the average over a three-year period (e.g., the span of the INSTANT Program) to describe longer-term mean, we investigate the temporal variations of the three-year low-pass ODA estimates. The average variation is about 3.6 Sv, which is largely due to the increase of ITF transport from 1993 to 2000. However, the three-year average during the 2004–2006 INSTANT Program period is within 0.5 Sv of the long-term mean for the past few decades.

Reduced Near-Surface Thermal Inversions in 2005–06 in the Southeastern Arabian Sea (Lakshadweep Sea)*

Abstract Repeat XBT transects made at near-fortnightly intervals in the Lakshadweep Sea (southeastern Arabian Sea) and ocean data assimilation products are examined to describe the year-to-year variability in the observed near-surface thermal inversions during the winter seasons of 2002–06. Despite the existence of a large low-salinity water intrusion into the Lakshadweep Sea, there was an unusually lower number of near-surface thermal inversions during the winter 2005/06 compared to the other winters. The possible causative mechanisms are examined. During the summer monsoon of 2005 and the following winter season, unusually heavy rainfall occurred over the southwestern Bay of Bengal and the Lakshadweep Sea compared to other years in the study. Furthermore, during the winter of 2005, both the East India Coastal Current and the Winter Monsoon Current were stronger compared to the other years, transporting larger quantities of low salinity waters from the Bay of Bengal into the Lakshadweep Sea where a relatively cooler near-surface thermal regime persisted owing to prolonged upwelling until November 2005. In addition, the observed local surface wind field was relatively stronger, and the net surface heat gain to the ocean was weaker over the Lakshadweep Sea during the postmonsoon season of 2005. Thus, in winter 2005/06, the combination of prolonged upwelling and stronger surface wind field resulting in anomalous net surface heat loss caused weaker secondary warming of the near-surface waters in the Lakshadweep Sea. This led to a weaker horizontal sea surface temperature (SST) gradient between the Lakshadweep Sea and the intruding Bay of Bengal waters and, hence, a reduced number of thermal inversions compared to other winters despite the presence of stronger vertical haline stratification.

Interannual Variations of the Tropical Ocean Instability Wave and ENSO

Abstract Using ocean data assimilation products, variability of eastern Pacific Ocean tropical instability waves (TIWs) and their interaction with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) were analyzed. TIWs are known to heat the cold tongue through horizontal advection. Conversely, variability of the cold tongue influences TIW variability (TIWV). During La Niña, TIWs are more active and contribute to anomalous warming. During El Niño, TIWs are suppressed and induce an anomalous cooling. TIWV thus acts as negative feedback to ENSO. Interestingly, this feedback is stronger during La Niña than during El Niño. To investigate this negative/asymmetric feedback, a simple parameterization for the horizontal thermal flux convergence due to TIWs was incorporated into a simple ENSO model. The model results suggested that asymmetric thermal heating associated with TIWs can explain the El Niño–La Niña asymmetry (with larger-amplitude El Niños).