Occurrence Rate Of Coronal Mass Ejections Research Articles

Quasiperiodic Variations of Coronal Mass Ejections with Different Angular Widths

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are energetic expulsions of organized magnetic features from the Sun. The study of CME quasiperiodicity helps establish a possible relationship between CMEs, solar flares, and geomagnetic disturbances. We used the angular width of CMEs as a criterion for classifying the CMEs in the study. Based on 25 yr of observational data, we systematically analyzed the quasiperiodic variations corresponding to the CME occurrence rate of different angular widths in the northern and southern hemispheres, using frequency and time–frequency analysis methods. There are various periods for CMEs of different angular widths: 9 months, 1.7 yr, and 3.3–4.3 yr. Compared with previous studies based on the occurrence rate of CMEs, we obtained the same periods of 1.2 (±0.01), 3.1 (±0.04), and ≈6.1 (±0.4) months, and 1.2 (±0.1) and 2.4 (±0.4) yr. We also found additional periods of all CMEs that appear only in one hemisphere or during a specific solar cycle. For example, 7.1 (±0.2) months and 4.1 (±0.2) yr in the northern hemisphere, 1 (±0.004) and 5.9 (±0.2) months and 1 (±0.1), 1.4 (±0.1), and 2.4 (±0.4) yr in the southern hemisphere, 6.1 (±0.4) months in solar cycle 23, and 6.1 (±0.4) months and 1.2 (±0.1) and 3.7 (±0.2) yr in solar cycle 24. The analysis shows that quasiperiodic variations of the CMEs are a link among oscillations in coronal magnetic activity, solar flare eruptions, and interplanetary space.

The State of the White-Light Corona over the Minimum and Ascending Phases of Solar Cycle 25 – Comparison with Past Cycles

We report on the state of the corona over the minimum and ascending phases of Solar Cycle (SC) 25 on the basis of the temporal evolutions of its radiance and of the properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), as determined from white-light observations performed by the SOHO/LASCO-C2 coronagraph. These evolutions are further compared with those determined during the past two Solar Cycles using the same methods. The integrated radiance of the K-corona and the occurrence rate of CMEs closely track the indices/proxies of solar activity, prominently the total magnetic field for the radiance and the 10.7 cm radio flux for the CMEs, all undergoing a steep increase during the ascending phase of SC 25. This increase is much steeper than anticipated on the basis of the predicted quasi-similarity between SC 25 and SC 24, and is confirmed by the recent evolution of the sunspot number. The radiance reached the same base level during the minima of SC 24 and SC 25, but the latitudinal extent of the streamer belt differed, being flatter during the latter minimum and in fact more similar to that of the minimum of SC 23. Synchronizing the descending branches of SC 23 and SC 24 led to a duration of SC 24 of 11.0 years, similar to that given by the sunspot number. In contrast, the base level of the occurrence rate of CMEs during the minimum of SC 25 was significantly larger than during the two previous minima. The southern hemisphere is conspicuously more active than the northern, in agreement with several predictions and the current evolution of the hemispheric sunspot numbers. In particular, the occurrence rate of the subset of CMEs with known mass, their mass rate, and the number of CMEs with speeds larger than 350 km s−1 in the southern hemisphere exceeds by far the respective values in the northern hemisphere. The mean apparent width of CMEs and the number of halo CMEs remains at relatively large, constant levels throughout the early phase of SC 25, implying the persistence of weak total pressure in the heliosphere. These results, and particularly the perspective of a corona being more active than anticipated, are extremely promising for the forthcoming observations by both Solar Orbiter and Parker Solar Probe.

The Temporal and Spatial Behaviors of CME Occurrence Rate at Different Latitudes

The statistical study of the coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is a hot topic in solar physics. To further reveal the temporal and spatial behaviors of the CMEs at different latitudes and heights, we analyzed the correlation and phase relationships between the occurrence rate of CMEs, the coronal brightness index (CBI), and the 10.7 cm solar radio flux (F10.7). We found that the occurrence rate of the CMEs correlates with the CBI relatively stronger at high latitudes (≥60°) than at low latitudes (≤50°). At low latitudes, the occurrence rate of the CMEs correlates relatively weaker with the CBI than the F10.7. There is a relatively stronger correlation relationship between CMEs, the F10.7, and the CBI during Solar Cycle 24 (SC24) than Solar Cycle 23 (SC23). During SC23, the high-latitude CME occurrence rate lags behind the F10.7 by 3 months, and during SC24, the low-latitude CME occurrence rate leads the low-latitude CBI by 1 month. The correlation coefficient values turn out to be larger when the very faint CMEs are removed from the samples of the CDAW catalog. Based on our results, we may speculate that the source regions of the high/low-latitude CMEs may vary in height, and the process of magnetic energy accumulation and dissipation is from the lower to the upper atmosphere of the Sun. The temporal offsets between different indicators could help us better understand the physical processes responsible for the solar-terrestrial interactions.

Study of the Mass-loss Rate from the Sun

We investigate the temporal evolution of the yearly total mass-loss rate (YTMLR) from the Sun through coronal mass ejections (CMEs) over solar cycles 23 and 24. The mass determination of CMEs can be subject to significant uncertainty. To minimize this problem, we have used extensive statistical analysis. For this purpose, we employed data included in the Coordinated Data Analysis Workshop (CDAW) catalog. We estimated the contributions to mass loss from the Sun from different subsamples of CMEs (selected on the basis of their masses, angular widths, and position angles). The temporal variations of the YTMLR were compared to those of the sunspot number (SSN), X-ray flare flux, and the Disturbance Storm Time (Dst) index. We show that the CME mass included in the CDAW catalog reflects with high accuracy the actual mass-loss rate from the Sun through CMEs. Additionally, it is shown that the CME mass distribution in the log-lin representation reflects the Gaussian distribution very well. This means that the CMEs included in the CDAW catalog form one coherent population of ejections that have been correctly identified. Unlike the CME occurrence rate, it turns out that the YTMLR is a very good indicator of solar activity (e.g., SSN) and space weather (e.g., Dst index) consequences. These results are very important, since the YTMLR, unlike the mass loss through solar wind, significantly depends on solar cycles.

Elucidation of some solar parameters observed during solar cycles 21–24

Solar-terrestrial environment is manifested primarily by the physical conditions of the solar interior, solar atmosphere and eruptive solar plasma. Each parameter gives unique information about the Sun and its activity according to its defined characteristics. Hence the variability of solar parameters is of interest from the point of view of plasma dynamics on the Sun and into the interplanetary space as well as for the solar-terrestrial physics. In this study, we have analysed various solar and related parameters to examine the status of solar activity during solar cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24. The correlation coefficients of the linear regression of F10.7 cm index, Lyman alpha index, Mg II index, cosmic ray intensity, number of M & X class flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) occurrence rate versus sunspot number were analysed. A running cross-correlation method has been used to study the momentary relationship among the above mentioned solar activity parameters. Solar cycle 21 witnessed the highest value of correlation for F10.7 cm index, Lyman alpha index and number of M-class & X - class flares versus sunspot number among all the considered solar cycles which were about 0.979, 0.935 and 0.964 respectively. Solar cycle 22 recorded the highest correlation in case of Mg II index, A p index and CMEs occurrence rate versus sunspot number among all the considered solar cycles (0.964, 0.384 and 0.972 respectively). Solar cycle 23 and 24 did not witness any highest correlation compared to solar cycle 21 and 22. Further the record values (highest value compared to other solar cycles) of each solar activity parameters for each of the four solar cycles have been studied. Solar cycle 24 has no record text at all, this simply indicating that this cycle was a weakest cycle compared to the three previous ones. Thus in every domain solar 24 has been observed weaker in comparison of its three predecessors.

ESTABLISHING SOLAR ACTIVITY TREND FOR SOLAR CYCLES 21 – 24

Solar-terrestrial environment is manifested primarily by the physical conditions of solar interior, solar atmosphere and eruptive solar plasma. Each parameter gives unique information about the Sun and its activity according to its defined characteristics. Hence the variability of solar parameters is of interest from the point of view of plasma dynamics on the Sun and in the interplanetary space as well as for the solar-terrestrial physics. In this study, we have analysed various solar transients and parameters to establish the recent trends of solar activity during solar cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24. The correlation coefficients of linear regression of F10.7 cm index, Lyman alpha index, Mg II index, cosmic ray intensity, number of M & X class flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) occurrence rate versus sunspot number was examined for last four solar cycles. A running cross-correlation method has been used to study the momentary relationship among the above mentioned solar activity parameters. Solar cycle 21 witnessed the highest value of correlation for F10.7 cm index, Lyman alpha index and number of M-class and X-class flares versus sunspot number among all the considered solar cycles which were 0.979, 0.935 and 0.964 respectively. Solar cycle 22 recorded the highest correlation in case of Mg II index, Ap index and CMEs occurrence rate versus sunspot number among all the considered solar cycles (0.964, 0.384 and 0.972 respectively). Solar cycle 23 and 24 did not witness any highest correlation compared to solar cycle 21 and 22. Further the record values (highest value compared to other solar three cycles) of each solar activity parameters for each of the four solar cycles have been studied. Here solar cycle 24 has no record text at all, this simply indicating that this cycle was a weakest cycle compared to the three previous ones. We have concluded that in every domain solar 24 was weaker to its three predecessors.

Mass loss via solar wind and coronal mass ejections during solar cycles 23 and 24

ABSTRACT Similar to the Sun, other stars shed mass and magnetic flux via ubiquitous quasi-steady wind and episodic stellar coronal mass ejections (CMEs). We investigate the mass loss rate via solar wind and CMEs as a function of solar magnetic variability represented in terms of sunspot number and solar X-ray background luminosity. We estimate the contribution of CMEs to the total solar wind mass flux in the ecliptic and beyond, and its variation over different phases of the solar activity cycles. The study exploits the number of sunspots observed, coronagraphic observations of CMEs near the Sun by SOHO/LASCO, in situ observations of the solar wind at 1 AU by WIND, and GOES X-ray flux during solar cycles 23 and 24. We note that the X-ray background luminosity, occurrence rate of CMEs and ICMEs, solar wind mass flux, and associated mass loss rates from the Sun do not decrease as strongly as the sunspot number from the maximum of solar cycle 23 to the next maximum. Our study confirms a true physical increase in CME activity relative to the sunspot number in cycle 24. We show that the CME occurrence rate and associated mass loss rate can be better predicted by X-ray background luminosity than the sunspot number. The solar wind mass loss rate which is an order of magnitude more than the CME mass loss rate shows no obvious dependency on cyclic variation in sunspot number and solar X-ray background luminosity. These results have implications for the study of solar-type stars.

WAITING TIMES OF QUASI-HOMOLOGOUS CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS FROM SUPER ACTIVE REGIONS

Why and how may some active regions (ARs) frequently produce coronal mass ejections (CMEs)? It is one of the key questions to deepen our understanding of the mechanisms and processes of energy accumulation and sudden release in ARs and to improve our capability of space weather prediction. Although some case studies have been made, the question is still far from fully answered. This issue is now being tried to address statistically through an investigation of waiting times of quasi-homologous CMEs from super ARs in solar cycle 23. It is found that the waiting times of quasi-homologous CMEs have a two-component distribution with a separation at about 18 hours. The first component is a Gaussian-like distribution with a peak at about 7 hours, which indicates a tight physical connection between these quasi-homologous CMEs. The likelihood of occurrences of two or more CMEs faster than 1200 km s-1 from the same AR within 18 hours is about 20%. Furthermore, the correlation analysis among CME waiting times, CME speeds and CME occurrence rates reveals that these quantities are independent to each other, suggesting that the perturbation by preceding CMEs rather than free energy input be the direct cause of quasi-homologous CMEs. The peak waiting time of 7 hours probably characterize the time scale of the growth of instabilities triggered by preceding CMEs. This study uncovers more clues from a statistical perspective for us to understand quasi-homologous CMEs as well as CME-rich ARs.

Coronal Mass Ejections and the Index of Effective Solar Multipole

The paper considers the relationship between the cyclic variations in the velocity of coronal mass ejections (CME) and the large-scale magnetic field structure (LSMF) in cycles 21 – 23. To characterize a typical size of the LSMF structure, we have used the index of the effective solar multipole (ESMI). The cyclic behavior of the CME occurrence rate and velocity proved to be similar to that of ESMI. The hysteresis observed in variations of the CME maximum velocity is interpreted as a manifestation of different contributions from the two field structures (local and global magnetic fields) in different phases of the 11-year activity cycle. It is suggested that cyclic variations in the maximum velocity of coronal mass ejections are due to different conditions for the formation of the complexes of active regions connected by coronal arch systems, which are the main source of high-velocity CMEs.

MAXIMUM CORONAL MASS EJECTION SPEED AS AN INDICATOR OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITIES

We investigate the relationship between the monthly averaged maximal speeds of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), international sunspot number (ISSN), and the geomagnetic Dst and Ap indices covering the 1996-2008 time interval (solar cycle 23). Our new findings are as follows. (1) There is a noteworthy relationship between monthly averaged maximum CME speeds and sunspot numbers, Ap and Dst indices. Various peculiarities in the monthly Dst index are correlated better with the fine structures in the CME speed profile than that in the ISSN data. (2) Unlike the sunspot numbers, the CME speed index does not exhibit a double peak maximum. Instead, the CME speed profile peaks during the declining phase of solar cycle 23. Similar to the Ap index, both CME speed and the Dst indices lag behind the sunspot numbers by several months. (3) The CME number shows a double peak similar to that seen in the sunspot numbers. The CME occurrence rate remained very high even near the minimum of the solar cycle 23, when both the sunspot number and the CME average maximum speed were reaching their minimum values. (4) A well-defined peak of the Ap index between 2002 May and 2004 August was co-temporal with the excess of the mid-latitude coronal holes during solar cycle 23. The above findings suggest that the CME speed index may be a useful indicator of both solar and geomagnetic activities. It may have advantages over the sunspot numbers, because it better reflects the intensity of Earth-directed solar eruptions.

Relationships Among Magnetic Clouds, CMES, and Geomagnetic Storms

During solar cycle 23, 82 interplanetary magnetic clouds (MCs) were identified by the Magnetic Field Investigation (MFI) team using Wind (1995 – 2003) solar wind plasma and magnetic field data from solar minimum through the maximum of cycle 23. The average occurrence rate is 9.5 MCs per year for the overall period. It is found that some of the anomalies in the frequency of occurrence were during the early part of solar cycle 23: (i) only four MCs were observed in 1999, and (ii) an unusually large number of MCs (17 events) were observed in 1997, just after solar minimum. We also discuss the relationship between MCs, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and geomagnetic storms. During the period 1996 – 2003, almost 8000 CMEs were observed by SOHO-LASCO. The occurrence frequency of MCs appears to be related neither to the occurrence of CMEs as observed by SOHO LASCO nor to the sunspot number. When we included “magnetic cloud-like structures” (MCLs, defined by Lepping, Wu, and Berdichevsky, 2005), we found that the occurrence of the joint set (MCs + MCLs) is correlated with both sunspot number and the occurrence rate of CMEs. The average duration of the MCL structures is ~40% shorter than that of the MCs. The MCs are typically more geoeffective than the MCLs, because the average southward field component is generally stronger and longer lasting in MCs than in MCLs. In addition, most severe storms caused by MCs/MCLs with Dst min≤ −100 nT occurred in the active solar period.

Coronal mass ejections and magnetic flux buildup in the heliosphere

To test for magnetic flux buildup in the heliosphere from coronal mass ejections (CMEs), we simulate heliospheric flux as a constant background open flux with a time‐varying interplanetary CME (ICME) contribution. As flux carried by ejecta can only contribute to the heliospheric flux budget while it remains closed, the ICME flux opening rate is an important factor. Two separate forms for the ICME flux opening rate are considered: (1) constant and (2) exponentially decaying with time. Coronagraph observations are used to determine the CME occurrence rates, while in situ observations are used to estimate the magnetic flux content of a typical ICME. Both static equilibrium and dynamic simulations, using the constant and exponential ICME flux opening models, require flux opening timescales of ∼50 days in order to match the observed doubling in the magnetic field intensity at 1 AU over the solar cycle. Such timescales are equivalent to a change in the ICME closed flux of only ∼7–12% between 1 and 5 AU, consistent with CSE signatures; no flux buildup results. The dynamic simulation yields a solar cycle flux variation with high variability that matches the overall variability of the observed magnetic field intensity remarkably well, including the double peak forming the Gnevyshev gap.

The east-west asymmetry in Coronal Mass Ejections: evidence for active longitudes

Abstract. Various manifestations of solar activity are not uniformly distributed with heliographic longitude. By using east-west asymmetry in the occurrence rate of CMEs (coronal mass ejections), the longitudinal dependence in SOHO LASCO 1996-2004 data has been studied in this work. The solar rotation periodicity has been found, indicating the presence of active longitudes, whose phase is reversed twice during the studied period. It is more prominent in the Southern Hemisphere. The east-west asymmetry is also present when calculated for longer time periods. Sometimes (particularly during low solar activity), there is an alternation of the eastern and western domination every six months. Taking into account the orbital revolution of the Earth about the Sun, this indicates the existence of enhanced activity, fixed in space (not undergoing Carrington rotation). Moreover, there is about a 3.7% overall excess of western events, lasting for the entire reported time, suggesting some bias in the observations. A hypothesis to explain this phenomenon is proposed.

Coronal Mass Ejections and Galactic Cosmic‐Ray Modulation

We present a study of the long-term evolution of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed by the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronograph (LASCO) on board SOHO during the ascending, maximum, and part of the descending phases of solar cycle 23 and their relation with the modulation of galactic cosmic-ray (GCR) intensity observed at 1 AU by the Climax neutron monitor and IMP-8 spacecraft. We compare the long-term GCR modulation with the CME occurrence rate at all, low, and high latitudes, as well as the observed CME parameters (width and speed). Twenty-seven day averages of CME occurrence rates and CME properties from 1996 January to 2003 December are presented in the Appendix. The general anticorrelation between GCR intensity and the CME rate is relatively high (~-0.88). However, when we divide the CME rate into low- and high-latitude rates and compare them with the GCR intensity during the ascending phase of solar cycle 23, we find a lower anticorrelation between the low-latitude the CME rate and GCR intensity (~-0.71) and a very high anticorrelation between the high-latitude CME rate and GCR intensity (~-0.94). This suggests that, in general, CMEs could cause the decrease in the GCR flux in the inner heliosphere, as stated by the global merged interaction region (GMIR) theory. In particular, during the ascending phase of cycle 23 (qA > 0), this flux comes mainly from heliospheric polar regions. Thus, high-latitude CMEs may play a central role in the long-term cosmic-ray modulation during this phase of the cycle by blocking the polar entrance of GCRs to the inner heliosphere. This study supports the scenario in which CMEs, among other structures, are the building blocks of GMIRs, although we propose that the spherical shells (GMIRs) are closed separately at polar and equatorial regions by CMEs of different latitudes. Our results suggest that all CME properties show some correlation with the GCR intensity, although there is no specific property (width, speed, or a proxy of energy) that definitely has a higher correlation with GCR intensity.

The solar cycle variation of coronal mass ejections and the solar wind mass flux

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are an important aspect of coronal physics and a potentially significant contributor to perturbations of the solar wind, such as its mass flux. Sufficient data on CMEs are now available to permit study of their longer‐term occurrence patterns. Here we present the results of a study of CME occurrence rates over more than a complete 11‐year solar sunspot cycle and a comparison of these rates with those of other activity related to CMEs and with the solar wind particle flux at 1 AU. The study includes an evaluation of corrections to the CME rates, which include instrument duty cycles, visibility functions, mass detection thresholds, and geometrical considerations. The main results are as follows: (1) The frequency of occurrence of CMEs tends to track the solar activity cycle in both amplitude and phase; (2) the CME rates from different instruments, when corrected for both duty cycles and visibility functions, are reasonably consistent; (3) considering only longer‐term averages, no one class of solar activity is better correlated with CME rate than any other; (4) the ratio of the annualized CME to solar wind mass flux tends to track the solar cycle; and (5) near solar maximum, CMEs can provide a significant fraction (i.e., ≈ 15%) of the average mass flux to the near‐ecliptic solar wind.

The solar cycle variation of the rates of CMEs and related activity

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are an important aspect of the physics of the corona and heliosphere. We present results of a study of occurrence frequencies of CMEs and related activity tracers over more than a complete solar activity cycle. To properly estimate occurrence rates, observed CME rates must be corrected for instrument duty cycles, detection efficiencies away from the skyplane, mass detection thresholds, and geometrical considerations. We evaluate these corrections using CME data from 1976–1989 obtained with the Skylab, SMM and SOLWIND coronagraphs and the HELIOS-2 photometers. The major results are: 1) The occurrence rate of CMEs tends to track the activity cycle in both amplitude and phase; 2) The corrected rates from different instruments are reasonably consistent; and 3) Over the long term, no one class of solar activity tracer is better correlated with CME rate than any other (with the possible exception of type II bursts).

Coronal mass ejections: 1979–1981

In an examination of the Solwind coronagraph images obtained during the interval March 28, 1979, to December 31, 1981, we have identified 998 coronal mass ejections and recorded their structural classes, central latitudes, latitudinal spans, speeds, excess brightnesses, and relative importances. A statistical analysis revealed the following general results. (1) The properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) depended strongly on their structure. Curved front, halo, and complex CMEs were the most energetic, and single spike, streamer blowout, and diffuse fan CMEs were the least energetic. CMEs occurred over a wide range of position angles, broadly centered on the equator, and had an average angular span of 45°. The leading edge moved at an average of approximately 470 km/s, and the average ejected mass and kinetic energy were 4.1×1015 g and 3.5×1030 erg, respectively. The average CME proton flux at the equator at 1 AU was 2.2×107 cm−2 s−1 or approximately 5% of the measured in situ flux during 1971–1976. (2) During 1979–1981, the average occurrence rate was 1.8/day for all CMEs, 0.9/day for “major” CMEs, and 0.15/day for all CMEs that crossed the equator and had an angular span of at least 45°. (3) The temporal variations in the CME occurrence rate did not show an obvious persistent relation to the variations in the sunspot number on time scales ranging from 7 to 180 days. During 1979–1981 the maximum in the 180‐day average CME rate peaked in the second half of 1980, whereas the 180‐day average sunspot number peaked during the first half of 1980. The 180‐day average rate of fast CMEs (speeds of at least 800 km/s) had a monotonic increase that seemed to be more closely associated with the occurrence rate of large solar flares than with the variation of the sunspot number.