Occurrence Of Uncertain Events Research Articles

Propagation of Uncertain Events in Multilevel Handlings at Container Terminals from the Perspective of Hypernetwork

Due to the complexity and dynamics of container terminal multilevel handlings, the occurrence of uncertain events often leads to the disruption of many operation plans and forms a chain reaction, resulting in economic losses and impacts. In this paper, the uncertain event propagation network model of container terminal multilevel handlings is constructed by using the hypernetwork theory, and the propagation influence of uncertain events between multilevel handlings at container terminals is considered. Through the topological characteristics of the uncertain event propagation network, the risk analysis is carried out for the relevance of nodes and the influence extent of uncertain events, and a simulation analysis is carried out to verify the validity of this model. The simulation results show that the model conforms to power law distribution, and the number of old nodes has an impact on the growth of hyperedge. The research provides a powerful tool for analysing the influence of uncertain events and their derivative events in the multilevel handlings at container terminals and has positive significance for reducing the losses caused by the changes of terminal plans and improving the operation efficiency.

Robustness evaluation of production plans using Monte Carlo simulation

In order to meet the challenges on the global market and to maximize productivity, production companies need to develop an effective production planning strategy. Production planning is a complex process that underlies a dynamic, fast-paced behavior: influences like machine failure, change of order or absence of employees regularly require an adaptation of the existing production plan. In this paper, we present a methodology that models phenomena influencing the production plan and evaluates their effects on the completion times via a Monte Carlo simulation. Focusing on short-notice incoming orders, the methodology provides statements on the robustness of the production plan by estimating the anticipated change in the completion times under the occurrence of uncertain events.

A General Result for Quantifying Beliefs

This paper presents conditions under which a person's beliefs about the occurrence of uncertain events are quantified by a capacity measure, i.e., a nonadditive probability. Additivity of probability is violated in a large number of applications where probabilities are vague or ambiguous due to lack of information.The key feature of the theory presented in this paper is a separation of the derivation of capacities for events from a specific choice model. This is akin to eliciting a probability distribution for a random variable without committing to a specific decision model. Conditions are given under which Choquet expected utility, the Machina-Schmeidler probabilistically sophisticated model, and subjective expected utility can be derived as special cases of our general model.

Sharing Risks of Deferred Payment

Abstract : Because uncertainty often enters into economic transactions when payment is deferred, it may be advantageous to make the amount of payment depend on the occurrence of uncertain events. This general method of accomplishing risk-sharing is studied and its relevance is discussed in two cases: (1) uncertainty over the rate of inflation and cost-of-living escalators; (2) uncertainty over the exchange rate and foreign currency payment plans.