Occurrence Of Scrub Typhus Research Articles

Spatio-temporal occurrence, burden, risk factors and modelling methods for estimating scrub typhus burden from global to subnational resolutions: a systematic review protocol.

Scrub typhus is a neglected life-threatening vector-borne disease mainly caused by the bacterium Orientia tsutsugamushi, which is occasionally transmitted to humans during feeding of larval mites. It has been estimated that more than 1 billion persons are potentially threatened and 1 million clinical cases occur annually across the world; however, it is unclear how this estimate was computed (and what the original source was) and much remains unknown regarding its global burden and risk factors. This systematic review aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the spatial-temporal distribution of scrub typhus, associated burden and risk factors at global, national and subnational resolutions, and to review the burden estimation models used at those different scales. A systematic search for literature on scrub typhus occurrence, risk factors and modelling methods will be conducted. PubMed and five other databases will be searched for published literature, and Google Scholar and nine other databases will be used to search for grey literatures. All titles/abstracts of the searched records will be separately assessed by two reviewers, who will then screen the full-text of potential records to decide eligibility. A pre-formatted spreadsheet will be used by one reviewer to extract data from qualifying research, with a second reviewer checking the results. Data will be tabulated, synthesized descriptively, and summarized narratively for each review question. Where appropriate, meta-analyses will be conducted. The risk of bias will be assessed, and potential publication bias will be detected. This review will provide a comprehensive understanding of the current occurrence, spatial-temporal distribution, and burden of scrub typhus, identify associated risk factors from global to subnational resolutions, consolidate the best practice modeling framework(s) to estimate the burden of scrub typhus at various geographic/temporal resolutions, and decompose the relative contributions of various risk factors at scale. CRD42022315209.

Exploring the influencing factors of scrub typhus in Gannan region, China, based on spatial regression modelling and geographical detector

Scrub typhus is a significant public health issue with a wide distribution and is influenced by various determinants. However, in order to effectively eradicate scrub typhus, it is crucial to identify the specific factors that contribute to its incidence at a detailed level. Therefore, the objective of our study is to identify these influencing factors, examine the spatial variations in incidence, and analyze the interplay of two factors on scrub typhus incidence, so as to provide valuable experience for the prevention and treatment of scrub typhus in Gannan and to alleviate the economic burden of the local population.This study employed spatial autocorrelation analyses to examine the dependent variable and ordinary least squares model residuals. Additionally, spatial regression modelling and geographical detector were used to analyze the factors influencing the annual mean 14-year incidence of scrub typhus in the streets/townships of Gannan region from 2008 to 2021. The results of spatial1 autocorrelation analyses indicated the presence of spatial correlation. Among the global spatial regression models, the spatial lag model was found to be the best fitting model (log likelihood ratio = −319.3029, AIC = 666.6059). The results from the SLM analysis indicated that DEM, mean temperature, and mean wind speed were the primary factors influencing the occurrence of scrub typhus. For the local spatial regression models, the multiscale geographically weighted regression was determined to be the best fitting model (adjusted R2 = 0.443, AICc = 726.489). Further analysis using the MGWR model revealed that DEM had a greater impact in Xinfeng and Longnan, while the southern region was found to be more susceptible to scrub typhus due to mean wind speed. The geographical detector results revealed that the incidence of scrub typhus was primarily influenced by annual average normalized difference vegetation index. Additionally, the interaction between GDP and the percentage of grassland area had a significant impact on the incidence of scrub typhus (q = 0.357). This study illustrated the individual and interactive effects of natural environmental factors and socio-economic factors on the incidence of scrub typhus; and elucidated the specific factors affecting the incidence of scrub typhus in various streets/townships. The findings of this study can be used to develop effective interventions for the prevention and control of scrub typhus.

The Distribution and Host-Association of the Vector Chigger Species Leptotrombidium imphalum in Southwest China.

Leptotrombidium imphalum is a species of chigger mites, and it can serve as a transmitting vector of scrub typhus. Southwest China is an important focus of scrub typhus. Based on the field investigation in southwest China from 2001 to 2022, this article presents the first report on the distribution and infestation of L. imphalum on rodents and other sympatric small mammals in the region. A total of 2161 L. imphalum were identified from 218 small mammal hosts in 21 of 114 survey sites. The 17 host species of L. imphalum crossed 13 genera and 5 families in 3 orders (Rodentia, Eulipotyphla, and Scandentia), indicating the low host specificity of the mite. The Asian house rat (Rattus tanezumi) was the dominant host species in the 21 sites where L. imphalum were collected, and 49.38% of mites were found on R. tanezumi. Different small mammals had different susceptibility to the infestation of L. imphalum. The prevalence (PM = 27.66%), infestation mean abundance (MA = 6 mites/per examined host), and mean intensity (MI = 21.69 mites/per infested host) for L. imphalum on the shrew gymnure (Neotetracus sinensis) were much higher than those on other host species (p < 0.05), indicating N. sinensis had a high susceptibility to the infestation of L. imphalum. The infestation indices for L. imphalum on small mammal hosts varied along different altitude and latitude gradients (p < 0.05), indicating the environmental heterogeneity of the mite infestation. Leptotrombidium imphalum exhibited an aggregated distribution among different individuals of its hosts. Besides the low host specificity of L. imphalum, the prevalence of the mite was positively correlated with the occurrence of scrub typhus, indicating the potential risk of the mite.

The impact of meteorological parameters on the scrub typhus incidence in Baoshan City, western Yunnan, China.

Scrub typhus has become widespread across various regions in China in recent decades, causing a considerable burden on residents. While meteorological variables significantly impact the spread of scrub typhus, there is insufficient quantitative evidence illustrating this association in known high-endemic areas. A distributed lag non-linear model was applied to explore the relationship between meteorological parameters and scrub typhus incidence from 2010 to 2019 in Baoshan City, western Yunnan Province, China. High monthly mean (20°C) and maximum (30°C) temperatures were associated with a peak risk of scrub typhus in the current month. Higher minimum temperatures and higher relative humidity were followed by increasing cumulative risks over the ensuing 3 months. Higher precipitation was followed by increasing cumulative risk over the ensuing 2-month period, peaking at around 30 cm. The non-linear lag associations between meteorological parameters and scrub typhus incidence suggest that higher monthly minimum temperature and relative humidity could be associated with an increased risk of scrub typhus in the subsequent several months, while warm temperature is more likely to impact the occurrence of scrub typhus in the current month.

Spatiotemporal heterogeneity and long-term impact of meteorological, environmental, and socio-economic factors on scrub typhus in China from 2006 to 2018.

Large-scale outbreaks of scrub typhus combined with its emergence in new areas as a vector-borne rickettsiosis highlight the ongoing neglect of this disease. This study aims to explore the long-term changes and regional leading factors of scrub typhus in China, with the goal of providing valuable insights for disease prevention and control. This study utilized a Bayesian space-time hierarchical model (BSTHM) to examine the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of scrub typhus and analyze the relationship between environmental factors and scrub typhus in southern and northern China from 2006 to 2018. Additionally, a GeoDetector model was employed to assess the predominant influences of geographical and socioeconomic factors in both regions. Scrub typhus exhibits a seasonal pattern, typically occurring during the summer and autumn months (June to November), with a peak in October. Geographically, the high-risk regions, or hot spots, are concentrated in the south, while the low-risk regions, or cold spots, are located in the north. Moreover, the distribution of scrub typhus is influenced by environment and socio-economic factors. In the north and south, the dominant factors are the monthly normalized vegetation index (NDVI) and temperature. An increase in NDVI per interquartile range (IQR) leads to a 7.580% decrease in scrub typhus risk in northern China, and a 19.180% increase in the southern. Similarly, of 1 IQR increase in temperature reduces the risk of scrub typhus by 10.720% in the north but increases it by 15.800% in the south. In terms of geographical and socio-economic factors, illiteracy rate and altitude are the key determinants in the respective areas, with q-values of 0.844 and 0.882. These results indicated that appropriate climate, environment, and social conditions would increase the risk of scrub typhus. This study provided helpful suggestions and a basis for reasonably allocating resources and controlling the occurrence of scrub typhus.

Climate influences scrub typhus occurrence in Vellore, Tamil Nadu, India: analysis of a 15-year dataset

Climate is one of the major factors determining the prevalence and seasonality of vector borne diseases like scrub typhus (ST). We analyzed, the association of the meteorological factors like temperature, rainfall and humidity with scrub typhus using the 15 years scrub typhus data from a tertiary care hospital in Vellore, South India. Demographic data of permanent residents of Vellore, who had IgM ELISA results for scrub typhus for the time period of May 2005 to April 2020 were included. Meteorological data was correlated with the monthly scrub typhus cases; negative binomial regression model was used to predict the relation between scrub typhus occurrence and climate factors. Maximum number of ST cases were reported between the months August and February with October recording the highest number of cases. Elderly people, farmers, agricultural workers and housewives were at higher risk for scrub typhus. For an increase of 1 °C in mean temperature, the monthly ST cases reduced by 18.8% (95% CI − 24.1, − 13.2%). On the contrary, for 1 percent increase in mean relative humidity (RH), there is an increase of 7.6% (95% CI 5.4, 9.9%) of monthly ST cases. Similarly, an increase of 1 mm of rainfall contributed to 0.5 to 0.7% of monthly ST cases (after 2 months) depending on the variables included in the analysis. This study provides information that meteorological factors influence ST occurrence in Vellore. The rise of scrub typhus cases is maximal 2 months post rainfall. Whereas a rise in relative humidity, causes a rise in scrub typhus cases in same month, while rise in temperature has a negative impact on scrub typhus during the same month. These findings based on a retrospective analysis need validation by prospective studies.

Exploring the effects and interactions of meteorological factors on the incidence of scrub typhus in Ganzhou City, 2008-2021.

Scrub typhus poses a substantial risk to human life and wellbeing as it is transmitted by vectors. Although the correlation between climate and vector-borne diseases has been investigated, the impact of climate on scrub typhus remains inadequately comprehended. The objective of this study is to investigate the influence of meteorological conditions on the occurrence of scrub typhus in Ganzhou City, Jiangxi Province. METHODS: From January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2021, we gathered weekly records of scrub typhus prevalence alongside meteorological data in Ganzhou city. In order to investigate the correlation between meteorological factors and scrub typhus incidence, we utilized distributional lag nonlinear models and generalized additive models for our analysis. Between 2008 and 2021, a total of 5942 cases of scrub typhus were recorded in Ganzhou City. The number of females affected exceeded that of males, with a male-to-female ratio of 1:1.86. Based on the median values of these meteorological factors, the highest relative risk for scrub typhus occurrence was observed when the weekly average temperature reached 26°C, the weekly average relative humidity was 75%, the weekly average sunshine duration lasted for 2h, and the weekly mean wind speed measured 2m/s. The respective relative risks for these factors were calculated as 3.816 (95% CI: 1.395-10.438), 1.107 (95% CI: 1.008-1.217), 2.063 (95% CI: 1.022-4.165), and 1.284 (95% CI: 1.01-1.632). Interaction analyses showed that the risk of scrub typhus infection in Ganzhou city escalates with higher weekly average temperature and sunshine duration. The findings of our investigation provide evidence of a correlation between environmental factors and the occurrence of scrub typhus. As a suggestion, utilizing environmental factors as early indicators could be recommended for initiating control measures and response strategies.

Estimation of scrub typhus incidence and spatiotemporal multicomponent characteristics from 2016 to 2023 in Zhejiang Province, China.

China is one of the main epidemic areas of scrub typhus, and Zhejiang Province, which is located in the coastal area of southeastern China, is considered a key region of scrub typhus. However, there may be significant bias in the number of reported cases of scrub typhus, to the extent that its epidemiological patterns are not clearly understood. The purpose of this study was to estimate the possible incidence of scrub typhus and to identify the main driving components affecting the occurrence of scrub typhus at the county level. Data on patients with scrub typhus diagnosed at medical institutions between January 2016 and December 2023 were collected from the China Disease Control and Prevention Information System (CDCPIS). The kriging interpolation method was used to estimate the possible incidence of scrub typhus. Additionally, a multivariate time series model was applied to identify the main driving components affecting the occurrence of scrub typhus in different regions. From January 2016 to September 2023, 2,678 cases of scrub typhus were reported in Zhejiang Province, including 1 case of reported death, with an overall case fatality rate of 0.04%. The seasonal characteristics of scrub typhus in Zhejiang Province followed an annual single peak model, and the months of peak onset in different cities were different. The estimated area with case occurrence was relatively wider. There were 41 counties in Zhejiang Province with an annual reported case count of less than 1, while from the estimated annual incidence, the number of counties with less than 1 case decreased to 21. The average annual number of cases in most regions fluctuated between 0 and 15. The numbers of cases in the central urban area of Hangzhou city, Jiaxin city and Huzhou city did not exceed 5. The estimated random effect variance parameters , , and were 0.48, 1.03 and 3.48, respectively. The endemic component values of the top 10 counties were Shuichang, Cangnan, Chun'an, Xinchang, Pingyang, Xianju, Longquan, Dongyang, Yueqing and Qingyuan. The spatiotemporal component values of the top 10 counties were Pujiang, Anji, Pan'an, Dongyang, Jinyun, Ninghai, Yongjia, Xiaoshan, Yinwu and Shengzhou. The autoregressive component values of the top 10 counties were Lin'an, Cangnan, Chun'an, Yiwu, Pujiang, Longquan, Xinchang, Luqiao, Sanmen and Fuyang. The estimated incidence was higher than the current reported number of cases, and the possible impact area of the epidemic was also wider than the areas with reported cases. The main driving factors of the scrub typhus epidemic in Zhejiang included endemic components such as natural factors, but there was significant heterogeneity in the composition of driving factors in different regions. Some regions were driven by spatiotemporal spread across regions, and the time autoregressive effect in individual regions could not be ignored. These results that monitoring of cases, vectors, and pathogens of scrub typhus should be strengthened. Furthermore, each region should take targeted prevention and control measures based on the main driving factors of the local epidemic to improve the accuracy of prevention and control.

Epidemiological analysis and risk prediction of scrub typhus from 2006 to 2021 in Sichuan, China.

In the past decade, the number of reported cases of scrub typhus (ST) has increased dramatically in Sichuan Province. We aimed to overview the epidemiological characteristics of ST, identify the variables contributing to the spatial distribution, and estimate the risk areas of ST occurrence. Daily ST cases reported at the county level from 2006 to 2021 and datasets on environmental and socioeconomic variables were obtained. Joinpoint regression model was utilized to examine the incidence trends and to calculate the annual percentage change. Global spatial autocorrelation analysis was employed to explore the spatial temporal patterns. Then BRT model was employed to identify variables that make sense and predict the risk areas of ST occurrence. It has been reported that there were 6,338 ST cases in Sichuan Province from 2006 to 2021, and the incidence rates continued to rise. Most cases were distributed between June and October each year, peaking in August. During the study period, the cases showed spatial clustering at the county level, mainly in the Panxi area, and then slowly spread to the northwest and northeast. Shrubs, precipitation, farmland and maximum temperature were the primary variables that affected the spatial distribution of this disease. It was estimated that the areas including Liangshan, Panzhihua, Bazhong, and Guangyuan were most at risk of transmission. and there were approximately 32.315 million people living in the areas with potential risk of infection throughout Sichuan. Many counties in Sichuan Province were estimated to be susceptible to ST. Our found in this data-driven study could be used to guide the implementation of targeted prevention and control measures in high-risk areas.

Using ecological niche modeling to predict the potential distribution of scrub typhus in Fujian Province, China

BackgroundDespite the increasing number of cases of scrub typhus and its expanding geographical distribution in China, its potential distribution in Fujian Province, which is endemic for the disease, has yet to be investigated.MethodsA negative binomial regression model for panel data mainly comprising meteorological, socioeconomic and land cover variables was used to determine the risk factors for the occurrence of scrub typhus. Maximum entropy modeling was used to identify the key predictive variables of scrub typhus and their ranges, map the suitability of different environments for the disease, and estimate the proportion of the population at different levels of infection risk.ResultsThe final multivariate negative binomial regression model for panel data showed that the annual mean normalized difference vegetation index had the strongest correlation with the number of scrub typhus cases. With each 0.1% rise in shrubland and 1% rise in barren land there was a 75.0% and 37.0% increase in monthly scrub typhus cases, respectively. In contrast, each unit rise in mean wind speed in the previous 2 months and each 1% increase in water bodies corresponded to a decrease of 40.0% and 4.0% in monthly scrub typhus cases, respectively. The predictions of the maximum entropy model were robust, and the average area under the curve value was as high as 0.864. The best predictive variables for scrub typhus occurrence were population density, annual mean normalized difference vegetation index, and land cover types. The projected potentially most suitable areas for scrub typhus were widely distributed across the eastern coastal area of Fujian Province, with highly suitable and moderately suitable areas accounting for 16.14% and 9.42%, respectively. Of the total human population of the province, 81.63% reside in highly suitable areas for scrub typhus.ConclusionsThese findings could help deepen our understanding of the risk factors of scrub typhus, and provide information for public health authorities in Fujian Province to develop more effective surveillance and control strategies in identified high risk areas in Fujian Province.

Spatio-temporal occurrence, burden, risk factors and modelling methods for estimating scrub typhus burden from global to subnational resolutions: a systematic review protocol

Background: Scrub typhus is a neglected life-threatening vector-borne disease mainly caused by the bacterium Orientia tsutsugamushi, which is occasionally transmitted to humans during feeding of larval mites. It has been estimated that more than 1 billion persons potentially threatened and 1 million clinical cases occur annually across the world; however, it is unclear how this estimate was computed (and what the original source was) and much remains unknown regarding its global burden and risk factors. This systematic review aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the spatial-temporal distribution of scrub typhus, associated burden and risk factors at global, national and subnational resolutions, and to review the burden estimation models used at those different scales. Methods: A systematic search for literature on scrub typhus occurrence, risk factors and modelling methods will be conducted. PubMed and five other databases will be searched for published literature, and Google Scholar and nine other databases will be used to search for grey literatures. All titles/abstracts of the searched records will be separately assessed by two reviewers, who will then screen the full-text of potential records to decide eligibility. Two reviewers will independently perform corresponding data extraction and finally cross-check using designed standardized forms. Data will be tabulated, synthesized descriptively, and summarized narratively for each review question. Where appropriate, meta-analyses will be conducted. The risk of bias will be assessed, and potential publication bias will be detected. Discussion: This review will provide a comprehensive understanding of the current occurrence, spatial-temporal distribution, and burden of scrub typhus, identify associated risk factors from global to subnational resolutions, consolidate the best practice modeling framework(s) to estimate the burden of scrub typhus at various geographic/temporal resolutions, and decompose the relative contributions of various risk factors at scale. PROSPERO Registration: CRD42022315209

English

BACKGROUND Scrub typhus is a mite borne zoonotic bacterial disease caused by Orientia tsutsugamushi. It is transmitted by bite of chiggers of trombiculid mite. Clinical features generally include fever, headache, and myalgia, with or without eschar/rash. People with severe illness may develop organ failure and bleeding which can be fatal if left untreated. This study was done to detect outbreak of cases of scrub typhus in Eastern India. These mites generally live in paddy fields of forested area and people visiting those areas are generally affected. Now a days these mites migrate to urban area resulting in increased incidence of scrub typhus infection in urban area. This study was conducted in collaboration with another institute. The purpose of this study was to find out the incidence of scrub typhus in our area and the relationship between occurrence of scrub typhus and seasonal, age and sex variation. METHODS This study was carried out in our tertiary care hospital with 441 samples for a period of one year (01.01.2019 to 31.12.19). All the blood samples collected from febrile patients were subjected to Weil Felix test. If the titre is &gt; 1 : 160; this was further confirmed by specific IgM testing. Both Weil-Felix tests and IgM scrub typhus positive tests were noted. RESULTS Out of 441 samples, 98 (22.2 %, n = 441) samples were positive for both WeilFelix and scrub typhus IgM by enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) testing. Most of the cases were seen in males. Seasonal distribution showed higher cases in the months of September and October. CONCLUSIONS In our study, the highest numbers of scrub typhus cases were found in rural areas, during the harvesting period of July–September specially in monsoon or post monsoon period when there is abundance of mite larva. This infection is also reported high in cases among children in the age group of 1 - 14 years. Patients who tested positive for scrub typhus improved radically with doxycycline. KEYWORDS Orientia Tsutsugamushi, Scrub Typhus, IgM ELISA

Impact of Meteorological Factors and Southern Oscillation Index on Scrub Typhus Incidence in Guangzhou, Southern China, 2006-2018.

Background: Scrub typhus was epidemic in the western Pacific Ocean area and East Asia, scrub typhus epidemic in densely populated areas in southern China. To better understand the association between meteorological variables, Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and scrub typhus incidence in Guangzhou was benefit to the control and prevention.Methodology/Principal Findings: We collected weekly data for scrub typhus cases and meteorological variables in Guangzhou, and Southern Oscillation Index from 2006 to 2018, and used the distributed lag non-linear models to evaluate the relationships between meteorological variables, SOI and scrub typhus. The median value of each variable was set as the reference. The high-risk occupations were farmer (51.10%), house worker (17.51%), and retiree (6.29%). The non-linear relationships were observed with different lag weeks. For example, when the mean temperature was 27.7°C with1-week lag, the relative risk (RR) was highest as 1.08 (95% CI: 1.01–1.17). The risk was the highest when the relative humidity was 92.0% with 9-week lag, with the RR of 1.10 (95% CI: 1.02–1.19). For aggregate rainfall, the highest RR was 1.06 (95% CI: 1.03–1.11), when it was 83.0 mm with 4-week lag. When the SOI was 19 with 11-week lag, the highest RR was 1.06 (95% CI: 1.01–1.12). Most of the extreme effects of SOI and meteorological factors on scrub typical cases were statistically significant.Conclusion/Significance: The high-risk occupations of scrub typhus in Guangzhou were farmer, house worker, and retiree. Meteorological factors and SOI played an important role in scrub typhus occurrence in Guangzhou. Non-linear relationships were observed in almost all the variables in our study. Approximately, mean temperature, and relative humidity positively correlated to the incidence of scrub typhus, on the contrary to atmospheric pressure and weekly temperature range (WTR). Aggregate rainfall and wind velocity showed an inverse-U curve, whereas the SOI appeared the bimodal distribution. These findings can be helpful to facilitate the development of the early warning system to prevent the scrub typhus.

Non-linear effect of different humidity types on scrub typhus occurrence in endemic provinces, Thailand

BackgroundReported monthly scrub typhus (ST) cases in Thailand has an increase in the number of cases during 2009–2014. Humidity is a crucial climatic factor for the survival of chiggers, which is the disease vectors. The present study was to determine the role of humidity in ST occurrence in Thailand and its delayed effect. MethodsWe obtained the climate data from the Department of Meteorology, the disease data from Ministry of Public Health. Negative binomial regression combined with a distributed lag non-linear model (NB-DLNM) was employed to determine the non-linear effects of different types of humidity on the disease. This model controlled overdispersion and confounder, including seasonality, minimum temperature, and cumulative total rainwater. ResultsThe occurrence of the disease in the 6-year period showed the number of cases gradually increased summer season (Mid-February – Mid-May) and then reached a plateau during the rainy season (Mid-May – Mid-October) and then steep fall after the cold season (Mid-October – Mid-February). The high level (at 70%) of minimum relative humidity (RHmin) was associated with a 33% (RR 1.33, 95% CI 1.13–1.57) significant increase in the number of the disease; a high level (at 14 g/m3) of minimum absolute humidity (AHmin) was associated with a 30% (RR 1.30, 95% CI 1.14–1.48); a high level (at 1.4 g/kg) of minimum specific humidity (SHmin) was associated with a 28% (RR 1.28, 95% CI 1.04–1.57). The significant effects of these types of humidity occurred within the past month. ConclusionHumidity played a significant role in enhancing ST cases in Thailand, particularly at a high level and usually occurred within the past month. NB-DLNM had good controlled for the overdispersion and provided the precise estimated relative risk of non-linear associations. Results from this study contributed the evidence to support the Ministry of Public Health on warning system which might be useful for public health intervention and preparation in Thailand.

Risk mapping of scrub typhus infections in Qingdao city, China.

BackgroundThe emergence and re-emergence of scrub typhus has been reported in the past decade in many global regions. In this study, we aim to identify potential scrub typhus infection risk zones with high spatial resolution in Qingdao city, in which scrub typhus is endemic, to guide local prevention and control strategies.Methodology/Principal findingsScrub typhus cases in Qingdao city during 2006–2018 were retrieved from the Chinese National Infectious Diseases Reporting System. We divided Qingdao city into 1,101 gridded squares and classified them into two categories: areas with and without recorded scrub typhus cases. A boosted regression tree model was used to explore environmental and socioeconomic covariates associated with scrub typhus occurrence and predict the risk of scrub typhus infection across the whole area of Qingdao city. A total of 989 scrub typhus cases were reported in Qingdao from 2006–2018, with most cases located in rural and suburban areas. The predicted risk map generated by the boosted regression tree models indicated that the highest infection risk areas were mainly concentrated in the mid-east and northeast regions of Qingdao, with gross domestic product (20.9%±1.8% standard error) and annual cumulative precipitation (20.3%±1.1%) contributing the most to the variation in the models. By using a threshold environmental suitability value of 0.26, we identified 757 squares (68.7% of the total) with a favourable environment for scrub typhus infection; 66.2% (501/757) of the squares had not yet recorded cases. It is estimated that 6.32 million people (72.5% of the total population) reside in areas with a high risk of scrub typhus infection.Conclusions/SignificanceMany locations in Qingdao city with no recorded scrub typhus cases were identified as being at risk for scrub typhus occurrence. In these at-risk areas, awareness and capacity for case diagnosis and treatment should be enhanced in the local medical service institutes.

Spatiotemporal and demographic characteristics of scrub typhus in Southwest China, 2006–2017: An analysis of population‐based surveillance data

Scrub typhus is a life-threatening vector-borne disease. During the past decade, the number of areas affected by this disease has expanded in many countries. In this study, we aim to identify the spatiotemporal and demographic characteristics of scrub typhus in Southwest China, an emerging endemic region for scrub typhus. Population-based surveillance data capturing scrub typhus cases in two provinces of Southwest China during 2006-2017 were retrieved. Descriptive temporal and spatial analyses were conducted and stratified by age group. The space-time scan statistic was used to identify spatiotemporal clusters of scrub typhus occurrence at the county level. During the study period, 30,001 scrub typhus cases were recorded in Southwest China, with a total of 61.0% (191/313) of counties being affected; most cases (94.3%) occurred in rural areas. The annual incidence rate increased substantially from 0.25/100,000 in 2006 to 5.38/100,000 in 2017 (>21-fold change). The 0- to 4-year-old and 45- to 64-year-old subgroups had the highest cumulative incidence rates (57.46 and 32.98/100,000, respectively). Furthermore, since 2006, the 0- to 4-year-old (slope=0.83, p<.01) and 45-64-year-old (slope=0.69, p<.01) age groups have had the highest increases in incidence of all age groups. The most likely spatial cluster of overall cases (relative risk=4.13, p<.01) occurred in the southern region of Southwest China and included 41 high-risk counties. In conclusion, scrub typhus appears to be widely distributed and rapidly increasing in Southwest China. Young children and middle-aged adults were the most severely affected groups, and the disease appeared to predominantly cluster in the southern part of Southwest China. Further in-depth surveys to determine the epidemiological characteristics and driving factors of this emerging disease and to facilitate effective control programmes among high-risk groups in the affected areas should be promoted.

Mapping Environmental Suitability of Scrub Typhus in Nepal Using MaxEnt and Random Forest Models.

Being a globally emerging mite-borne zoonotic disease, scrub typhus is a serious public health concern in Nepal. Mapping environmental suitability and quantifying the human population under risk of the disease is important for prevention and control efforts. In this study, we model and map the environmental suitability of scrub typhus using the ecological niche approach, machine learning modeling techniques, and report locations of scrub typhus along with several climatic, topographic, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and proximity explanatory variables and estimated population under the risk of disease at a national level. Both MaxEnt and RF technique results reveal robust predictive power with test The area under curve (AUC) and true skill statistics (TSS) of above 0.8 and 0.6, respectively. Spatial prediction reveals that environmentally suitable areas of scrub typhus are widely distributed across the country particularly in the low-land Tarai and less elevated river valleys. We found that areas close to agricultural land with gentle slopes have higher suitability of scrub typhus occurrence. Despite several speculations on the association between scrub typhus and proximity to earthquake epicenters, we did not find a significant role of proximity to earthquake epicenters in the distribution of scrub typhus in Nepal. About 43% of the population living in highly suitable areas for scrub typhus are at higher risk of infection, followed by 29% living in suitable areas of moderate-risk, and about 22% living in moderately suitable areas of lower risk. These findings could be useful in selecting priority areas for surveillance and control strategies effectively.

Scrub typhus in Jiangsu Province, China: epidemiologic features and spatial risk analysis

BackgroundWith the increasing incidence of scrub typhus in recent years, it is of great value to analyse the spatial and temporal distribution of scrub typhus by applying micro-geographical studies at a reasonably fine scale, and to guide the control and management.MethodsWe explored the use of maximum entropy modelling method to confirm the spatial and temporal distribution of scrub typhus according to the occurrence locations of human cases in Jiangsu Province. The risk prediction map under specific environmental factors was therefore drawn by projecting the training model across China. The area under the curve and the omission rate were used to validate the model. Meanwhile, Jackknife tests were applied to enumerate the contribution of different environmental variables, then to predict the final model. The predicted results were validated by using China’s known occurrence locations.ResultsA total of 566 occurrence locations with known 4865 scrub typhus occurrence records were used in our study. The number of female cases was higher than male cases, with a proportion of 1.17:1, and people in any age group could be infected. The number of cases presented an inverted-U relation with age. The percentage of cases aged from 60 to 69 years old was the highest, accounting for 30.50% of all cases. Ecological niche modelling results indicated that the locations of scrub typhus cases, which was of great importance in the disease transmission cycle, had a certain ecological niche with environmental elements in many dimensions. Moreover, the key environmental factors for determining scrub typhus occurrence were temperature (including temperature seasonality, min temperature of coldest month, mean diurnal range, and monthly mean temperature), precipitation of wettest month, and land cover types. The risk prediction maps indicated that mid-eastern China was the potential risk areas for scrub typhus of “autumn type”. Meanwhile, in our results, Guangdong Province was the high-risk region for “autumn type” scrub typhus, where cases were mainly reported as “summer type”.ConclusionThe combination of climatic and geographic factors with GIS methods is an appropriate option to analyse and estimate the spatial and temporal distribution of scrub typhus.

Differences in agricultural activities related to incidence of scrub typhus between Korea and Japan.

OBJECTIVESThe purpose of this study was to establish a basis for improving or strengthening the preventive strategy against scrub typhus in Korea by comparing and analyzing the difference of prevention behaviors contributing to the occurrence of scrub typhus in Japan and Korea.METHODSThe survey was carried out in Jeollabuk-do, which is a high risk and high incidence area, and Fukuoka Prefecture, which is a high risk and low incidence area. The study included 406 Korean farmers and 216 Japanese farmers. Data were collected through face-to-face surveys by interviewers who had completed standardized education.RESULTSKorean farmers have a higher percentage of agricultural working posture that involved contact with weeds than Japanese farmers (p<0.05). The frequency and proportion of weeding were lower in Korean farmers than in Japanese farmers (p<0.05). The level of knowledge about scrub typhus was significantly higher among Korean farmers than among Japanese farmers (p<0.05). Mostly, the behavior of agriculture work was more appropriate for Japanese farmers than for Korean farmers (p<0.05). The total average level of agricultural work was lower in Korea than in Japan, lower in men than women, and lower in part-time farmers than full-time farmers (p<0.05).CONCLUSIONSThis study suggests that it is reasonable to develop and provide a program that can improve the level of preventive behavior taking into consideration the characteristics of the subject in order to reduce the incidence of diseases in high-risk areas for scrub typhus.

SCRUB TYPHUS AND DENGUE COINFECTION IN A 17-MONTH-OLD CHILD

ABSTRACT Scrub typhus is reemerging as a worldwide threat. In the tropical countries, where other diseases with overlapping clinical features are abundant, the occurrence of scrub typhus poses to be a significant problem to the clinician. We describe the case of a 17-month-old child who was diagnosed to be having a coinfection of scrub typhus and dengue. Various similar complications such as capillary leakage, thrombocytopenia, and possibility of seizure found in both the diseases, make such a coinfection very risky. The child was managed with oral azithromycin and fluid support. He became afebrile after 60 h and was discharged after 8 days. This case report will alert the pediatricians to anticipate the rare possibility of coinfection with scrub typhus and dengue fever. Key words: Scrub typhus, Rickettsial infections, Dengue, Co-infection, Children