Observed Sea Level Change Research Articles

Changes in the Water Surface Level of the Baltic Sea from Satellite Altimetry and Gravity Missions

ABSTRACT Satellite altimetry provides high-accuracy geometrical measurements of sea level changes. We analyze altimetry time series representing sea surface height anomalies over the mean sea surface provided by the TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, Jason-2, and Jason-3 satellite missions to estimate the annual rate of sea level rise. Then, we compare the results with satellite gravimetric data from GRACE and GRACE Follow-On missions and surface water temperature data, employing statistical analyses to examine the interrelationships and correlations between them. We carry out the main analyses for the period 2001–2021 with a division into 5-year periods for six different areas of the Baltic Sea. The altimetric results show that between 2001 and 2021, the water level of the Baltic Sea rose by 5.8 mm/year on average. About 72% of the changes detected by altimetry missions can be explained by satellite gravimetry from GRACE and GRACE Follow-On, which means that the mass component is responsible for most of the observed sea level change, whereas the remaining 28% can be greatly explained by thermal expansion due to the water temperature rise.

Analysis of the Data Presented by Tide Gauge Stations in Albania

This study focuses on the comprehensive monitoring of tide gauges along the coastal regions of the Republic ofAlbania, aiming to assess sea level variations and understand the dynamics of the coastal environment. Tide gaugesplay a crucial role in providing essential data for coastal management, climate change studies, and disasterpreparedness. The research involves the deployment and maintenance of tide gauges at strategic locations along theAlbanian coastline, coupled with an in-depth analysis of the collected data. The monitoring process includescontinuous data acquisition from tide gauges, incorporating advanced sensors and telemetry systems to ensure realtime and accurate measurements. The acquired data are analyzed to identify patterns, trends, and anomalies in sealevel variations. Additionally, the study investigates the influence of meteorological and oceanographic factors on tidegauge readings, enhancing the understanding of the complex interactions shaping coastal dynamics. Furthermore, theresearch explores the implications of observed sea level changes on coastal ecosystems, infrastructure, andcommunity resilience. It provides valuable insights into potential threats such as coastal erosion, saltwater intrusion,and flooding. The findings contribute to the development of effective adaptation and mitigation strategies to addressthe challenges posed by rising sea levels.

CMIP6 Historical Simulations (1850–2014) With GISS‐E2.1

AbstractSimulations of the CMIP6 historical period 1850–2014, characterized by the emergence of anthropogenic climate drivers like greenhouse gases, are presented for different configurations of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Earth System ModelE2.1. The GISS‐E2.1 ensembles are more sensitive to greenhouse gas forcing than their CMIP5 predecessors (GISS‐E2) but warm less during recent decades due to a forcing reduction that is attributed to greater longwave opacity in the GISS‐E2.1 pre‐industrial simulations. This results in an atmosphere less sensitive to increases in opacity from rising greenhouse gas concentrations, demonstrating the importance of the base climatology to forcing and forced climate trends. Most model versions match observed temperature trends since 1979 from the ocean to the stratosphere. The choice of ocean model is important to the transient climate response, as found previously in CMIP5 GISS‐E2: the model that more efficiently exports heat to the deep ocean shows a smaller rise in tropospheric temperature. Model sea level rise over the historical period is traced to excessive drawdown of aquifers to meet irrigation demand with a smaller contribution from thermal expansion. This shows how fully coupled models can provide indirect observational constraints upon forcing, in this case, constraining irrigation rates with observed sea level changes. The overall agreement of GISS‐E2.1 with observed trends is familiar from evaluation of its predecessors, as is the conclusion that these trends are almost entirely anthropogenic in origin.

Observational Requirements for Long-Term Monitoring of the Global Mean Sea Level and Its Components Over the Altimetry Era

Present-day global mean sea level rise is caused by ocean thermal expansion, ice mass loss from glaciers and ice sheets, as well as changes in terrestrial water storage. For that reason, sea level is one of the best indicators of climate change as it integrates the response of several components of the climate system to internal and external forcing factors. Monitoring the global mean sea level allows detecting changes (e.g., in trend or acceleration) in one or more components. Besides, assessing closure of the sea level budget allows us to check whether observed sea level change is indeed explained by the sum of changes affecting each component. If not, this would reflect errors in some of the components or missing contributions not accounted for in the budget. Since the launch of TOPEX/Poseidon in 1992, a precise 27-year continuous record of sea level change is available. It has allowed major advances in our understanding of how the Earth is responding to climate change. The last two decades are also marked by the launch of the GRACE satellite gravity mission and the development of the Argo network of profiling floats. GRACE space gravimetry allows the monitoring of mass redistributions inside the Earth system, in particular land ice mass variations as well as changes in terrestrial water storage and in ocean mass, while Argo floats allow monitoring sea water thermal expansion due to the warming of the oceans. Together, satellite altimetry, space gravity, and Argo measurements provide unprecedented insight into the magnitude, spatial variability, and causes of present-day sea level change. With this observational network, we are now in a position to address many outstanding questions that are important to planning for future sea level rise. Here, we detail the network for observing sea level and its components, underscore the importance of these observations, and emphasize the need to maintain current systems, improve their sensors, and supplement the observational network where gaps in our knowledge remain.

Slow Down of the Gulf Stream during 1993\u20132016

The Gulf Stream, the main heat-carrier from low to high latitudes in the North Atlantic Ocean, influences the climate and weather in the northern hemisphere. In this study we determine and analyze the position, speed, and width of the Gulf Stream (GS) from 80°W–50°W using satellite altimeter sea surface height (SSH) measurements to examine the possible link between changes in the strength of the GS and coastal sea levels along the U.S. East Coast. During our 24-year study period (1993–2016), the GS experienced a southward shift east of 65°W after passing the New England Seamount chain. This southward shift was accompanied by a weakening of the GS, associated with an increase in SSH to the north of the GS. West of 70°W, however, we found no statistically significant trends in the GS properties, consistent with results based on in situ measurements. This lack of a trend to the west fails to support a direct link between a long-term slowdown of the GS west of 70°W and sea level rise acceleration along the U.S. East Coast, though a slowdown of the GS east of 65°W may contribute to sea level rise. It is also possible that heat carried to the region by the GS may be responsible for these observed sea level changes.

The 8.2 ka cooling event caused by Laurentide ice saddle collapse

The 8.2 ka event was a period of abrupt cooling of 1–3 °C across large parts of the Northern Hemisphere, which lasted for about 160 yr. The original hypothesis for the cause of this event has been the outburst of the proglacial Lakes Agassiz and Ojibway. These drained into the Labrador Sea in ∼0.5–5 yr and slowed the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, thus cooling the North Atlantic region. However, climate models have not been able to reproduce the duration and magnitude of the cooling with this forcing without including additional centennial-length freshwater forcings, such as rerouting of continental runoff and ice sheet melt in combination with the lake release. Here, we show that instead of being caused by the lake outburst, the event could have been caused by accelerated melt from the collapsing ice saddle that linked domes over Hudson Bay in North America. We forced a General Circulation Model with time varying meltwater pulses (100–300 yr) that match observed sea level change, designed to represent the Hudson Bay ice saddle collapse. A 100 yr long pulse with a peak of 0.6 Sv produces a cooling in central Greenland that matches the 160 yr duration and 3 °C amplitude of the event recorded in ice cores. The simulation also reproduces the cooling pattern, amplitude and duration recorded in European Lake and North Atlantic sediment records. Such abrupt acceleration in ice melt would have been caused by surface melt feedbacks and marine ice sheet instability. These new realistic forcing scenarios provide a means to reconcile longstanding mismatches between proxy data and models, allowing for a better understanding of both the sensitivity of the climate models and processes and feedbacks in motion during the disintegration of continental ice sheets.

Do climate models reproduce complexity of observed sea level changes?

AbstractThe ability of Atmosphere‐Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) to capture the statistical behavior of sea level (SL) fluctuations has been assessed at the local scale. To do so, we have compared scaling behavior of the SL fluctuations simulated in the historical runs of 36 CMIP5 AOGCMs to that in the longest (>100 years) SL records from 23 tides gauges around the globe. The observed SL fluctuations are known to manifest a power law scaling. We have checked if the SL changes simulated in the AOGCM exhibit the same scaling properties and the long‐term correlations as observed in the tide gauge records. We find that the majority of AOGCMs overestimates the scaling of SL fluctuations, particularly in the North Atlantic. Consequently, AOGCMs, routinely used to project regional SL rise, may underestimate the part of the externally driven SL rise, in particular the anthropogenic footprint, in the projections for the 21st century.

The Sea Level Response to External Forcings in Historical Simulations of CMIP5 Climate Models*

Abstract Changes in Earth’s climate are influenced by internal climate variability and external forcings, such as changes in solar radiation, volcanic eruptions, anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG), and aerosols. Although the response of surface temperature to external forcings has been studied extensively, this has not been done for sea level. Here, a range of climate model experiments for the twentieth century is used to study the response of global and regional sea level change to external climate forcings. Both the global mean thermosteric sea level and the regional dynamic sea level patterns show clear responses to anthropogenic forcings that are significantly different from internal climate variability and larger than the difference between models driven by the same external forcing. The regional sea level patterns are directly related to changes in surface winds in response to the external forcings. The spread between different realizations of the same model experiment is consistent with internal climate variability derived from preindustrial control simulations. The spread between the different models is larger than the internal variability, mainly in regions with large sea level responses. Although the sea level responses to GHG and anthropogenic aerosol forcing oppose each other in the global mean, there are differences on a regional scale, offering opportunities for distinguishing between these two forcings in observed sea level change.

Spatial trend patterns in the Pacific Ocean sea level during the altimetry era: the contribution of thermocline depth change and internal climate variability

This study investigates the spatial trend patterns and variability of observed sea level and upper ocean thermal structure in the Pacific Ocean during the altimetry era (1993–2012), and the role of thermocline depth changes. The observed sea level trend pattern in this region results from the superposition of two main signals: (1) a strong broad-scale V-shaped positive trend anomaly extending to mid-latitudes in the central Pacific and (2) another very strong positive trend anomaly located in the western tropical Pacific within about 120° E–160° E and 20° S–20° N latitude. In this study, we focus on the tropical Pacific (20° N–20° S) where the strongest trends in sea level are observed. By making use of in situ observational data, we study the impact of thermocline depth changes on steric sea level between the surface and 700 m and its relation with the altimetry-based observed sea level changes. This is done by calculating the time-varying thermocline depth (using the 20 °C isotherm depth as a proxy) and estimating the sea level trend patterns of the thermocline-attributed individual steric components. We show that it is essentially the vertical movement of the thermocline that governs most of the observed sea level changes and trends in the tropical Pacific. Furthermore, we also show that in the equatorial band, the changes in the upper ocean thermal structure are in direct response to the zonal wind stress. Away from the equatorial band (say, within 5°–15° latitude), the changes in the upper ocean thermal structure are consistent with the wind stress-generated Rossby waves. We also estimate the contribution of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) on the vertical thermal structure of the tropical Pacific Ocean. Removing the IPO contribution to the upper layer steric sea level provides a non-negligible residual pattern, suggesting that IPO-related internal ocean variability alone cannot account for the observed trend patterns in the Pacific sea level. It is likely that the residual signal may also reflect non-linear interactions between different natural modes like El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), IPO, etc.

Sea level changes at Tenerife Island (NE Tropical Atlantic) since 1927

Hourly sea level observations measured by five tide gauges at Santa Cruz harbor (Tenerife Island), in the Northeastern Tropical Atlantic, have been merged to build a consistent and almost continuous sea level record starting in 1927. Datum continuity was ensured using high precision leveling information. The time series underwent a detailed quality control in order to remove outliers, time drifts, and datum shifts. The resulting sea level record was then used to describe the low frequency (interannual to decadal) sea level variability at Tenerife. It was found that at interannual and longer time scales, the observed sea level changes are primarily driven by steric sea level variations. Such steric changes are originated by coastal trapped waves induced by longshore winds along the continental coast and propagate poleward. Observed sea level rise at Tenerife was 2.09 ± 0.04 mm/yr since 1927. According to the hydrographic observations in the area, only half of this trend was attributed to steric sea level changes for the top 500 m, at least since 1950.

The effect of the NAO on sea level and on mass changes in the Mediterranean Sea

Sea level in the Mediterranean Sea over the period 1993–2011 is studied on the basis of altimetry, temperature, and salinity data and gravity measurements from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) (2002–2010). An observed increase in sea level corresponds to a linear sea level trend of 3.0 ± 0.5 mm/yr dominated by the increase in the oceanic mass in the basin. The increase in sea level does not, however, take place linearly but over two 2–3 year periods, each contributing 2–3 cm of sea level. Variability in the basin sea level and its mass component is dominated by the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO influence on sea level is primarily linked with atmospheric pressure changes and local wind field changes. However, neither the inverse barometer correction nor a barotropic sea level model forced by atmospheric pressure and wind can remove fully the NAO influence on the basin sea level. Thus, a third contributing mechanism linked with the NAO is suggested. During winter 2010, a low NAO index caused a basin sea level increase of 12 cm which was almost wholly due to mass changes and is evidenced by GRACE. About 8 cm of the observed sea level change can be accounted for as due to atmospheric pressure and wind changes. The residual 4 cm of sea level change is caused by the newly identified contribution. The physical mechanisms that may be responsible for this additional contribution are discussed.

Revisiting sea level and energy budgets

Various factors contribute to sea level rise, including changing groundwater storage, thermal expansion of the oceans, and melting glaciers and ice sheets. However, studies that add up the observed contributions from these effects have not been able to account for the entire observed sea level rise over the past several decades. To help resolve the discrepancy, Church et al. revisited sea level budgets and considered sea level and Earth's energy budgets together using new and updated estimates of all contributing factors for the past several decades, including a new estimate of groundwater depletion. They were able to account for the entire observed sea level change from 1972 to the present.

Sea level and climate: measurements and causes of changes

AbstractWe review present‐day observations of sea level change and variability at global and regional scales, focusing on the altimetry era starting in the early 1990s. Over the past ∼18‐years, the rate of global mean sea level rise has reached 3.3 ± 0.4 mm/year, nearly twice that of the previous decades, although the observed larger sea level rise rate may be influenced by decadal or longer variations in the ocean. Moreover, sea level rates are not geographically uniform; in some regions like the tropical western Pacific, rates are up to 3–4 times higher than the global mean rate. We next discuss the climate‐related components of the global mean sea level rise. Over the last ∼18‐years, ocean thermal expansion contributes about one third to the observed rise while total land ice (glacier melting plus ice sheet mass loss) contribute the other two third. The spatial trend patterns evidenced over the altimetry period mostly result from nonuniform steric sea level changes (effects of ocean temperature and salinity), largely caused by wind‐driven ocean circulation changes. Such patterns are not stationary but oscillate through time on decadal/multidecadal time scale, in response to natural modes of the coupled ocean‐atmosphere system. We close up this review by briefly discussing future (21st century) sea level rise. Current limited knowledge of the future evolution of the mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets leads to high uncertainty on the global mean sea level rise expected for the next 50–100 years. WIREs Clim Change 2011 2 647–662 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.139This article is categorized under: Paleoclimates and Current Trends > Earth System Behavior

Ongoing glacial isostatic contributions to observations of sea level change

Studies determining the contribution of water fluxes to sea level rise typically remove the ongoing effects of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). Unfortunately, use of inconsistent terminology between various disciplines has caused confusion as to how contributions from GIA should be removed from altimetry and GRACE measurements. In this paper, we review the physics of the GIA corrections applicable to these measurements and discuss the differing nomenclature between the GIA literature and other studies of sea level change. We then examine a range of estimates for the GIA contribution derived by varying the Earth and ice models employed in the prediction. We find, similar to early studies, that GIA produces a small (compared to the observed value) but systematic contribution to the altimetry estimates, with a maximum range of -0.15 to -0.5 mm yr-1. Moreover, we also find that the GIA contribution to the mass change measured by GRACE over the ocean is significant. In this regard, we demonstrate that confusion in nomenclature between the terms 'absolute sea level' and 'geoid' has led to an overestimation of this contribution in some previous studies. A component of this overestimation is the incorrect inclusion of the direct effect of the contemporaneous perturbations of the rotation vector, which leads to a factor of ˜two larger value of the degree two, order one spherical harmonic component of the model results. Aside from this confusion, uncertainties in Earth model structure and ice sheet history yield a spread of up to 1.4 mm yr-1 in the estimates of this contribution. However, even if the ice and Earth models were perfectly known, the processing techniques used in GRACE data analysis can introduce variations of up to 0.4 mm yr-1. Thus, we conclude that a single-valued 'GIA correction' is not appropriate for sea level studies based on gravity data; each study must estimate a bound on the GIA correction consistent with the adopted data-analysis scheme

The Moving Boundaries of Sea Level Change: Understanding the Origins of Geographic Variability

As ice sheets gain or lose mass, and as water moves between the continents and the ocean, the solid Earth deforms and the gravitational field of the planet is perturbed. Both of these effects lead to regional patterns in sea level change that depart dramatically from the global average. Understanding these patterns will lead to better constraints on the various contributors to the observed sea level change and, ultimately, to more robust projections of future changes. In both of these applications, a key step is to apply a correction to sea level observations, based on data from tide gauges, satellite altimetry, or gravity, to remove the contaminating signal that is due to the ongoing Earth response to the last ice age. Failure to accurately account for this so-called glacial isostatic adjustment has the potential to significantly bias our understanding of the magnitude and sources of present-day global sea level rise. This paper summarizes the physics of several important sources of regional sea level change. Moreover, we discuss several promising strategies that take advantage of this regional variation to more fully use sea level data sets to monitor the impact of climate change on the Earth system

Nineteenth and Twentieth Century Changes in Sea Level

Following the Last Glacial Maximum (25,000–20,000 years ago), sea level rose at rates on the order of several tens of millimeters per year at times, and increased overall by over 130 m. However, melting of the great ice sheets was largely complete by 6,000 years ago, and it is believed that sea level did not rise significantly again until recently. The rates of sea level change during the last few centuries and in recent decades can be measured in units of millimeters per year and are particularly important in understanding present-day climate change. We now have a range of techniques with which sea level changes can be measured and thus studied more intensively than before, as a global average and in each region. This article introduces each of the main data sets and presents the primary research findings. It is hoped that a greater understanding of the reasons for past observed sea level change, discussed elsewhere in this issue, will lead to better estimation of the changes likely to occur in the future

Twentieth century constraints on sea level change and earthquake deformation at Macquarie Island

SUMMARY Through the combination of rare historical sea level observations collected during Sir Douglas Mawson’s 1911–1914 Australasian Antarctic Expedition (AAE), together with modern sea level data, space geodetic estimates of crustal displacement and modelling of coseismic and post-seismic earthquake deformation, we present a contemporary analysis to constrain sea level and land level change over the twentieth century at Macquarie Island (54 ◦ 30 � S, 158 ◦ 57 � E). We combine 9 months of 1912–1913 sea level data with intermediate observations in 1969–1971, 1982 and 1998–2007 to estimate sea level rise relative to the land at +4.8 ± 0.6 mm yr −1 . Combined with estimates of global mean sea level rise, this value supports the geologically surprising notion of land subsidence, conflicting with longer term geological evidence that suggests uplift at ∼0.8 mm yr −1 over the last 400–300 Kyr. We investigate the current tectonic evolution of the Island through analysis of Global Positioning System (GPS) solutions that utilize data over the period 2000–2009. Importantly, this provides an opportunity to refine the source parameters of the M w ∼8.0 great earthquake of 2004 December 23 using estimates of coseismic displacements at regional GPS sites. We use the estimated earthquake source and GPS observations of four years of post-seismic deformation at Macquarie Island to infer the rheology of the oceanic upper mantle. We find that an asthenosphere bounded by stronger material above and below is required to produce the observed post-seismic deformation, particularly in the vertical component. Assuming a Maxwell rheology, the best fit is given by an asthenospheric viscosity of 3×10 19 Pa s. The inferred rheology determined from the 2004 earthquake is used to model long period post-seismic deformation from M w ∼8.0 earthquakes of 1989 and 1924. The 1924 earthquake is the closest of the three great earthquakes to Macquarie Island, and our modelling suggests that the majority of the vertical deformation at the tide gauge over the subsequent 80 years is related to ongoing viscoelastic relaxation from this thrust earthquake that ruptured south from an epicentre south of Macquarie Island. Assimilated time-series of land level change from the earthquake modelling (suggesting ongoing subsidence) constrained by the GPS estimate of vertical velocity of −2.46 ± 0.64 mm yr −1 combine with the relative sea level time-series to yield an estimate of absolute sea level change of +2.0 ± 0.8 mm yr −1 over the twentieth century. We conclude this is consistent with the upper bound of the global average rate of absolute sea level rise over the same period. This represents one of few estimates of observed sea level change in the Southern Ocean, re-emphasizing the importance of historical data and continued geodetic and oceanographic observation in remote areas.

Uncertainty in ocean mass trends from GRACE

SUMMARY Ocean mass, together with steric sea level, are the key components of total observed sea level change. Monthly observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) can provide estimates of the ocean mass component of the sea level budget, but full use of the data requires a detailed understanding of its errors and biases. We have examined trends in ocean mass calculated from 6 yr of GRACE data and found differences of up to 1 mm yr−1 between estimates derived from different GRACE processing centre solutions. In addition, variations in post-processing masking and filtering procedures required to convert the GRACE data into ocean mass lead to trend differences of up to 0.5 mm yr−1. Necessary external model adjustments add to these uncertainties, with reported postglacial rebound corrections differing by as much as 1 mm yr−1. Disagreement in the regional trends between the GRACE processing centres is most noticeably in areas south of Greenland, and in the southeast and northwest Pacific Ocean. Non-ocean signals, such as in the Indian Ocean due to the 2004 Sumatran–Andean earthquake, and near Greenland and West Antarctica due to land signal leakage, can also corrupt the ocean trend estimates. Based on our analyses, formal errors may not capture the true uncertainty in either regional or global ocean mass trends derived from GRACE.

Sea level variability in the Mediterranean Sea during the 1990s on the basis of two 2d and one 3d model

The sea level rise in the 1990s at the Mediterranean Sea as evidenced by satellite altimetry is studied with the aid of ocean models. Two barotropic two dimensional (2d) models and one three dimensional (3d) model are used. Both 2d models indicate that the contribution of direct atmospheric forcing causes localised trends of up to 2 mm/yr. The 3d model successfully describes the evolution in temperature of the upper and intermediate waters. However the salinity changes are not well described. The steric contribution of sea level rise during this period is in places in excess of 10 mm/yr. Notably oceanic circulation is also found to contribute to sea level trends by up to − 3 mm/yr. Thus the observed sea level changes in the 1990s are better understood. The exceptional nature of the sea level behaviour in 1990s, especially in the eastern basin, when compared with previous decades is confirmed on the basis of both the 2d and the 3d models.

Regional patterns of observed sea level change: insights from a 1/4° global ocean/sea-ice hindcast

A global eddy-admitting ocean/sea-ice simulation driven over 1958–2004 by daily atmospheric forcing is used to evaluate spatial patterns of sea level change between 1993 and 2001. In the present study, no data assimilation is performed. The model is based on the Nucleus for European Models of the Ocean code at the 1/4° resolution, and the simulation was performed without data assimilation by the DRAKKAR project. We show that this simulation correctly reproduces the observed regional sea level trend patterns computed using satellite altimetry data over 1993–2001. Generally, we find that regional sea level change is best simulated in the tropical band and northern oceans, whereas the Southern Ocean is poorly simulated. We examine the respective contributions of steric and bottom pressure changes to the total regional sea level changes. For the steric component, we analyze separately the contributions of temperature and salinity changes as well as upper and lower ocean contributions. Generally, the model results show that most regional sea level changes arise from temperature changes in the upper 750 m of the ocean. However, contributions of salinity changes and deep steric changes can be locally important. We also propose a map of ocean bottom pressure changes. Finally, we assess the robustness of such a model by comparing this simulation with a second simulation performed by MERCATOR-Ocean based on the same core model, but differing by its short length of integration (1992–2001) and its surface forcing data set. The long simulation presents better performance over 1993–2001 than the short simulation, especially in the Southern Ocean where a long adjustment time seems to be needed.