Obliquity Timescales Research Articles

Tropical Warming and Intensification of the West African Monsoon During the Miocene Climatic Optimum

AbstractStudying monsoon dynamics during past warm time periods such as the Miocene Climatic Optimum (MCO; ∼16.9–14.5 Ma) could greatly aid in better projecting monsoon intensity, in the context of future greenhouse warming. However, studies on regional MCO temperature change and its effect on the monsoons during this time period are lacking. Here, we present the first high‐resolution, low‐latitude record of sea surface temperature (SST) and paleoceanographic change covering the Miocene Climatic Optimum, in the eastern equatorial Atlantic, at Ocean Drilling Program Site 959, based on TEX86 paleothermometry. SSTs were ∼1.5°C warmer at the onset of the MCO (16.9 Ma) relative to the pre‐MCO (∼18.3–17.7 Ma). This warming was accompanied by a transient increase in %total organic carbon. Prior to the MCO, sediment composition, geochemical proxy data as well as dinoflagellate cyst assemblages imply a productive surface ocean at Site 959. Immediately following the MCO onset (∼16.9–16.5 Ma), we record an intensification of the West African Monsoon (WAM) characterized by higher amplitude variability in all proxy records on precession to obliquity timescales. We interpret increased orbital‐scale SST, biogenic Ba and dinocyst assemblage variability to represent intensification of equatorial upwelling, forced by the WAM strength. Furthermore, higher SSTs during eccentricity maxima correlate to increased relative abundances of the warm and stratification‐favoring dinocyst Polysphaeridium zoharyi, during periods of low WAM intensity. Finally, while long‐term SSTs decline toward the middle Miocene, maximum SSTs and Polysphaeridium zoharyi abundances occur during MCO peak warming at ∼15.6 Ma.

Relationship between the East Asian Summer and Winter Monsoons at Obliquity Time Scales

Abstract The relationship between the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) across time scales has been an interesting topic for decades. In this study, we quantitatively investigate the EASM–EAWM relationship at the obliquity time scales using a set of accelerated transient simulations. By comparing different indices defined with different variables, we find that the EASM and EAWM intensities are positively correlated under obliquity forcing. High obliquity leads to warmer summertime and cooler wintertime surface temperatures, with a stronger response observed over land than over the oceans. The warmer summertime and cooler wintertime temperature responses are accompanied by a strengthened Asian low in summer and Siberian high in winter, with enhanced southerlies in summer and northerlies in winter, indicating an enhanced EASM and EAWM. Modulated by ice sheet forcing, however, the evolution of the simulated EAWM shifts toward the ice sheet maximum, such that the circulation-based EASM–EAWM relationship in the realistically forced simulation exhibits a phase shift of approximately 11 kyr, closer to the phase between the composite δ18O and loess grain size in observations. Our results may have implications for better understanding the distinct changes in the proxy-based EASM–EAWM relationship before and after the rapid growth of global ice volume at around 3 Ma. Significance Statement Studying the relationship between the EASM and EAWM can help us understand the characteristics and mechanisms of the regional climate in response to external forcings at different time scales. By investigating the EASM–EAWM relationship over the past 300 000 years, we find that, forced by obliquity variations, the EASM and EAWM are positively correlated at the obliquity time scales. The ice sheet forcing, meanwhile, also influences the circulation over East Asia and modulates the evolutionary phases between the EASM and EAWM. Our results highlight the importance of the combined impacts of orbital parameters and ice sheets on past climate changes over Asia.

Relationship of East Asia summer and winter monsoon at obliquity timescale

Relationship of East Asia summer and winter monsoon at obliquity timescale

Relationship of East Asia summer and winter monsoon at obliquity timescale

Relationship of East Asia summer and winter monsoon at obliquity timescale

Tectonic and climatic drivers of Asian monsoon evolution

Asian Monsoon rainfall supports the livelihood of billions of people, yet the relative importance of different drivers remains an issue of great debate. Here, we present 30 million-year model-based reconstructions of Indian summer monsoon and South East Asian monsoon rainfall at millennial resolution. We show that precession is the dominant direct driver of orbital variability, although variability on obliquity timescales is driven through the ice sheets. Orographic development dominated the evolution of the South East Asian monsoon, but Indian summer monsoon evolution involved a complex mix of contributions from orography (39%), precession (25%), atmospheric CO2 (21%), ice-sheet state (5%) and ocean gateways (5%). Prior to 15 Ma, the Indian summer monsoon was broadly stable, albeit with substantial orbital variability. From 15 Ma to 5 Ma, strengthening was driven by a combination of orography and glaciation, while closure of the Panama gateway provided the prerequisite for the modern Indian summer monsoon state through a strengthened Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.

Obliquity‐Driven CO2 Exchange Between Mars' Atmosphere, Regolith, and Polar Cap

AbstractDiscerning the total mass of Mars’ obliquity‐timescale (∼105‐year) exchangeable CO2 inventory has been elusive for decades due to the unknown adsorptive capacity of its regolith. Now, however, the stratigraphy of Mars’ recently discovered South Polar Massive CO2 Ice Deposit (MCID) provides a record of orbit‐driven CO2 exchange between its polar cap, atmosphere, and regolith with sufficient constraint to calculate the adsorptive capacity of its regolith and therefore the total mass of its exchangeable CO2 inventory. We use a numerical climate model and Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis to show that the observed MCID stratigraphic record is most consistent with a mobile CO2 inventory of kg ( mbar, 68% confidence interval) that exchanges on obliquity timescales. We find that adsorptive CO2 exchange with the regolith on obliquity timescales likely occurs in the depth range of >∼200 m to <∼1 km, with the deeper bound set by thermal processes and adsorptive surface availability. Our best‐fit model yields a peak mean annual surface pressure 40% lower than CO2 exchange models that neglect an adsorbing regolith. We provide machine‐readable text files of our results to aid future study of Mars’ climate.

Loess‐Like Dust Appearance at 40 Ma in Central China

AbstractAsian mineral dust has been studied extensively for its role in affecting regional‐to global‐scale climate and for its deposits, which enable reconstructing Asian atmospheric circulation in the past. However, the timing and origin of the dust deposits remain debated. Numerous loess records have been reported across the Asian continent with ages varying from the Miocene to the Eocene and linked to various mechanisms including global cooling, Tibetan Plateau uplift and retreat of the inland proto‐Paratethys Sea. Here, we study the Eocene terrestrial mudrocks of the Xining Basin in central China and use nonparametric end‐member analysis of grain‐size distributions to identify a loess‐like dust component appearing in the record at 40 Ma. This is coeval with the onset of high‐latitude orbital cycles and a shift to predominant steppe‐desert vegetation as recognized by previous studies in the same record. Furthermore, we derive wind directions from eolian dune deposits which suggest northwesterly winds, similar to the modern‐day winter monsoon which is driven by a high pressure system developing over Siberia. We propose that the observed shifts at 40 Ma reflect the onset of the Siberian High interacting with westerly derived moisture at obliquity timescales and promoting dust storms and aridification in central China. The timing suggests that the onset may have been triggered by increased continentality due to the retreating proto‐Paratethys Sea.

Antarctic ice-sheet sensitivity to obliquity forcing enhanced through ocean connections

Deep sea geological records indicate that Antarctic ice-sheet growth and decay is strongly influenced by the Earth’s astronomical variations (known as Milankovitch cycles), and that the frequency of the glacial–interglacial cycles changes through time. Here we examine the emergence of a strong obliquity (axial tilt) control on Antarctic ice-sheet evolution during the Miocene by correlating the Antarctic margin geological records from 34 to 5 million years ago with a measure of obliquity sensitivity that compares the variance in deep sea sediment core oxygen-isotope data at obliquity timescales with variance of the calculated obliquity forcing. Our analysis reveals distinct phases of ice-sheet evolution and suggests the sensitivity to obliquity forcing increases when ice-sheet margins extend into marine environments. We propose that this occurs because obliquity-driven changes in the meridional temperature gradient affect the position and strength of the circum-Antarctic easterly flow and enhance (or reduce) ocean heat transport across the Antarctic continental margin. The influence of obliquity-driven changes in ocean dynamics is amplified when marine ice sheets are extensive, and sea ice is limited. Our reconstruction of the Antarctic ice-sheet history suggests that if sea-ice cover decreases in the coming decades, ocean-driven melting at the ice-sheet margin will be amplified. The sensitivity of the Antarctic ice sheet to obliquity increases when ice-sheet margins are exposed to the ocean, suggests an analysis of sediment core oxygen isotope records.

Land–sea coupling of early Pleistocene glacial cycles in the southern North Sea exhibit dominant Northern Hemisphere forcing

Abstract. We assess the disputed phase relations between forcing and climatic response in the early Pleistocene with a spliced Gelasian (∼2.6–1.8 Ma) multi-proxy record from the southern North Sea basin. The cored sections couple climate evolution on both land and sea during the intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciation (NHG) in NW Europe, providing the first well-constrained stratigraphic sequence of the classic terrestrial Praetiglian stage. Terrestrial signals were derived from the Eridanos paleoriver, a major fluvial system that contributed a large amount of freshwater to the northeast Atlantic. Due to its latitudinal position, the Eridanos catchment was likely affected by early Pleistocene NHG, leading to intermittent shutdown and reactivation of river flow and sediment transport. Here we apply organic geochemistry, palynology, carbonate isotope geochemistry, and seismostratigraphy to document both vegetation changes in the Eridanos catchment and regional surface water conditions and relate them to early Pleistocene glacial–interglacial cycles and relative sea level changes. Paleomagnetic and palynological data provide a solid integrated timeframe that ties the obliquity cycles, expressed in the borehole geophysical logs, to Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 103 to 92, independently confirmed by a local benthic oxygen isotope record. Marine and terrestrial palynological and organic geochemical records provide high-resolution reconstructions of relative terrestrial and sea surface temperature (TT and SST), vegetation, relative sea level, and coastal influence. During the prominent cold stages MIS 98 and 96, as well as 94, the record indicates increased non-arboreal vegetation, low SST and TT, and low relative sea level. During the warm stages MIS 99, 97, and 95 we infer increased stratification of the water column together with a higher percentage of arboreal vegetation, high SST, and relative sea level maxima. The early Pleistocene distinct warm–cold alterations are synchronous between land and sea, but lead the relative sea level change by 3000–8000 years. The record provides evidence for a dominantly Northern Hemisphere-driven cooling that leads the glacial buildup and varies on the obliquity timescale. Southward migration of Arctic surface water masses during glacials, indicated by cool-water dinoflagellate cyst assemblages, is furthermore relevant for the discussion on the relation between the intensity of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and ice sheet growth.

Paleoproductivity in the northwestern Pacific Ocean during the Pliocene‐Pleistocene climate transition (3.0–1.8 Ma)

AbstractAlkenone mass accumulation rates (MARs) provide a proxy for export productivity in the northwestern Pacific (Ocean Drilling Program Site 1208) spanning the late Pliocene through early Pleistocene (3.0–1.8 Ma). We investigate changes in productivity associated with global cooling during the onset and expansion of Northern Hemisphere glaciation (NHG). Alkenone MARs vary on obliquity timescales throughout, but the amplitude increases at 2.75 Ma concurrent with the intensification of NHG and cooling of the sea surface by 3°C. The obliquity‐scale variations in alkenone MARs parallel shipboard measurements of sediment color reflectance (%) with higher MARs significantly correlated (>95%) with darker (opal‐rich) intervals. Variations in both lead benthic foraminiferal δ18O values by 1.5–2 kyr suggesting that export productivity may be a contributing factor, rather than a response, to the extent of continental glaciation. The biological pump is therefore a plausible mechanism for transferring atmospheric CO2 into the deep ocean during the onset of NHG and the ensuing obliquity‐dominated climate regime. Obliquity‐scale correlation between productivity and magnetic susceptibility is consistent with a link via westerly winds delivering terrigenous sediments and mixing the upper water column. Alkenone MARs also contain a ~400 kyr modulation. Because this periodicity is a multiple of the residence time of carbon in the ocean, it may reflect inputs of new nutrients associated with eccentricity‐forced changes in the terrestrial biosphere and weathering. We ascribe these findings to interactions between the East Asian winter monsoon and productivity in the North Pacific Ocean, perhaps contributing to Plio‐Pleistocene climate change.

Obliquities of “top-shaped” asteroids may not imply reshaping by YORP spin-up

The timescales over which the YORP effect alters the rotation period and the obliquity of a small asteroid can be very different, because the corresponding torques couple to different aspects of the object’s shape. For nearly axisymmetric, “top-shaped” near-Earth asteroids such as 101955 Bennu, spin timescales are an order of magnitude or more longer than obliquity timescales, which are ∼105 to 106yr. The observed low obliquities (near 0° or 180°) of top-shaped asteroids do not constitute evidence that they acquired their present shapes and spins through YORP spin-up, because low obliquities are expected regardless of the spin-up or reshaping mechanism.

Methane variations on orbital timescales: a transient modeling experiment

Abstract. Methane (CH4) variations on orbital timescales are often associated with variations in wetland coverage, most notably in the summer monsoon areas of the Northern Hemisphere. Here we test this assumption by simulating orbitally forced variations in global wetland emissions, using a simple wetland distribution and CH4 emissions model that has been run on the output of a climate model (CLIMBER-2) containing atmosphere, ocean and vegetation components. The transient climate modeling simulation extends over the last 650 000 yr and includes variations in land-ice distribution and greenhouse gases. Tropical temperature and global vegetation are found to be the dominant controls for global CH4 emissions and therefore atmospheric concentrations. The relative importance of wetland coverage, vegetation coverage, and emission temperatures depends on the specific climatic zone (boreal, tropics and Indian/Asian monsoon area) and timescale (precession, obliquity and glacial-interglacial timescales). Despite the low spatial resolution of the climate model and crude parameterizations for methane production and release, simulated variations in CH4 emissions agree well with those in measured concentrations, both in their time series and spectra. The simulated lags between emissions and orbital forcing also show close agreement with those found in measured data, both on the precession and obliquity timescale. We find causal links between atmospheric CH4 concentrations and tropical temperatures and global vegetation, but only covariance between monsoon precipitation and CH4 concentrations. The primary importance of the first two factors explains the lags found in the CH4 record from ice cores. Simulation of the dynamical vegetation response to climate variation on orbital timescales would be needed to reduce the uncertainty in these preliminary attributions.

Evolution of nutricline dynamics in the equatorial Pacific during the late Pliocene

[1] The tropics have played a central role in modulating Earth's climate throughout the Plio-Pleistocene, with tropical productivity fluctuations a key mechanism in the operation of the global carbon cycle and linkage of high- and low-latitude climates. Published records of tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) during the Plio-Pleistocene appear to vary primarily in tune with high-latitude climate on both orbital and secular timescales. However, contemporaneous changes in equatorial primary productivity are less well constrained, particularly at sites where climate is not dominated by upwelling or monsoon systems. Furthermore, the role of thermocline dynamics (tilt and mean depth changes) in forcing SST and productivity on orbital timescales remains uncertain. Here we report new, high-resolution calcareous nannofossil records from two Ocean Drilling Program sites in the western and eastern equatorial Pacific during marine isotope stages 95–101, about 2400–2600 kyr ago. Our records of paleoproductivity and nutricline depth reveal synchronous, large-amplitude glacial-interglacial productivity variations at both ends of the equatorial Pacific indicating (1) remote (high-latitude) forcing of primary productivity and (2) no primary role for east–west tilting of the equatorial Pacific thermocline, with important implications regarding the operation of El Niño–like dynamics in the Pliocene Pacific. Instead, the paleoproductivity variations and phase relationships that we document suggest the interaction of two mechanisms operating on obliquity timescales: a “bottom-up” forcing transmitted via the upwelling of high-latitude source waters in conjunction with the “top-down” forcing of atmospheric greenhouse gases.

Antarctic temperature at orbital timescales controlled by local summer duration

During the late Pleistocene epoch, proxies for Southern Hemisphere climate from the Antarctic ice cores vary nearly in phase with Northern Hemisphere insolation intensity at the precession and obliquity timescales. This coherence has led to the suggestion that Northern Hemisphere insolation controls Antarctic climate. However, it is unclear what physical mechanisms would tie southern climate to northern insolation. Here we call on radiative equilibrium estimates to show that Antarctic climate could instead respond to changes in the duration of local summer. Simple radiative equilibrium dictates that warmer annual average atmospheric temperatures occur as a result of a longer summer, as opposed to a more intense one, because temperature is more sensitive to insolation when the atmosphere is cooler. Furthermore, we show that a single-column atmospheric model reproduces this radiative equilibrium effect when forced exclusively by local Antarctic insolation, generating temperature variations that are coherent and in phase with proxies of Antarctic atmospheric temperature and surface conditions. We conclude that the duration of Southern Hemisphere summer is more likely to control Antarctic climate than the intensity of Northern Hemisphere summer with which it (often misleadingly) covaries. In our view, near interhemispheric climate symmetry at the obliquity and precession timescales arises from a northern response to local summer intensity and a southern response to local summer duration. On orbital timescales, Antarctic climate varies in phase with Northern Hemisphere insolation, but no physical mechanism for such a link is known. A new analysis suggests that at obliquity and precession timescales Antarctic climate may instead be responding to the duration of the local summer, which covaries with Northern insolation.

Significant features of the calendar of the late Pleistocene glacial cycles

Comparison of the δD deuterium record in the ice cores at the Antarctic Vostok and Dome C stations with the δ18 oxygen isotope in bottom oceanic sediments has elucidated the boundaries of glacial cycles in the late Pleistocene and revealed their inner symmetry: the longer the cycles, the more distant they were from the interglacial that occurred approximately 400 kyr ago. The symmetry is also manifested in the reversal of the sawtooth sequence of the cycles in that period. Wavelet analysis shows that symmetry was induced by amplitude modulation of climate oscillations on the precession and obliquity time scales and by frequency modulation on the scales of the eccentricity of the Earth’s orbital motion around the Sun.

Obliquity forcing with 8–12 times preindustrial levels of atmospheric pCO2 during the Late Ordovician glaciation

Results from coupled ice-sheet and atmospheric general circulation models show that the waxing and waning of ice sheets during the Late Ordovician were very sensitive to changes in atmospheric p CO 2 and orbital forcing at the obliquity time scale (30–40 k.y.). Without orbital forcing, ice sheets can grow with p CO 2 level as high as 10 times preindustrial atmospheric level (PAL). However, with orbital forcing, ice sheets can grow only with p CO 2 levels of 8 times PAL or lower. These results indicate that the threshold of p CO 2 for the initiation of glaciation is on the lower end of previously published estimates of 8–20 times PAL. The ice-sheet model results further indicate that during exceptionally long periods of low summer insolation and low p CO 2 levels (8–10 times PAL), large ice sheets could have formed that were able to sustain permanent glaciation under subsequently higher p CO 2 values. This finding suggests that in order to end the Late Ordovician glaciation with a rise in p CO 2 , atmospheric p CO 2 must have risen to at least 12 times PAL. Ice sheets therefore introduce nonlinearities and hysteresis effects to the Ordovician climate system. These nonlinearities might have also played a role in the initiation and termination of other glaciations in Earth history.

Mars secular obliquity change due to water ice caps

Mars may have substantially changed its average axial tilt over geologic time due to the waxing and waning of water ice caps through the phenomenon of climate friction (also called obliquity‐oblateness feedback). Depending upon Mars' climate and internal structure, water caps of the order of 1017–1018 kg cycling with the obliquity oscillations could have either increased or decreased the average obliquity by possibly tens of degrees. This is in contrast to previous results, which indicated that 1017 kg carbon dioxide caps only increased the axial tilt. Since the south polar cap appears to be mostly uncompensated, Mars may be largely rigid on the obliquity timescale. Further, Mars may be a water‐rich planet so that there is a large phase angle between insolation forcing and the size of the obliquity‐driven water caps. A stiff, water‐rich planet indicates the obliquity may have decreased over the eons. Such a decrease might account for the apparent youthfulness of the polar layered terrain, the idea being that fewer volatiles were available to be cycled into and out of the terrain at high obliquity because of more even insolation between equator and pole, so that the movement of volatiles produced thin layers or perhaps no layers at all. As the obliquity decreased, the insolation contrast between high and low latitiudes increased, and more volatiles might have shuttled into and out of the polar regions, forming the observed thick layers. In another but perhaps less likely scenario, Mars' average obliquity may have either increased or decreased until it became “stuck” at its present value of ∼24°. In this case the idea is that Mars' climate dynamics altered as the average tilt changed. Once the rate of increase in tilt caused by the deformation of the solid planet equaled the rate of decrease caused by the caps, the obliquity evolution ceased, leaving Mars at its present tilt.

The role of seasonal reservoirs in the Mars water cycle: II. Coupled models of the regolith, the polar caps, and atmospheric transport

The behavior of water vapor in the Mars atmosphere requires that there be a seasonally accessible nonatmospheric reservoir of water. Coupled models have been constructed which include exchange of water with the regolith and with the polar caps, and transport through the atmosphere due to its circulation. Comparison of the model results with the vapor observations and with other data regarding the physical nature of the surface allows constraints to be placed on the relative importance of each process. The models are capable of satisfactorily explaining the gross features of the observed behavior using plausible values for the regolith and atmosphere mixing terms. In the region between the polar caps, the regolith contributes as much water to the seasonal cycle of vapor as does transport in from the more-poleward regions, to within a factor of 2. Globally, 10–40% of the seasonal cycle of vapor results from exchange of water with the regolith, about 40% results from the behavior of the residual caps, and the remainder is due to exchange of water with the seasonal caps. It is difficult to determine the relative importance of the processes more precisely than this because both regolith and polar cap exchange of water act to first order in the same direction, producing the largest vapor abundance during the local summer. The system is ultimately regulated on the seasonal time scale by the polar caps, as the time to reach equilibrium between the atmosphere and regolith or between the polar atmosphere and the global atmosphere is much longer than the time for the polar caps to equilibrate with the local atmosphere. This same behavior will hold for longer time scales, with the polar caps being in equilibrium with the insolation as it changes on the obliquity time scale, and the atmosphere and regolith following along.