Number Of Incident Cases Research Articles

Prevention Lab: a predictive model for estimating the impact of prevention interventions in a simulated Italian cohort

BackgroundA large fraction of the disease burden in the Italian population is due to behavioral risk factors. The objective of this work is to provide a tool to estimate the impact of preventive interventions that reduce the exposure to smoking and sedentary lifestyle of the Italian population, with the goal of selecting optimal interventions.MethodsWe construct a Markovian model that simulates the state of each subject of the Italian population. The model predicts the distribution of subjects in each health status and risk factor status for every year of the simulation. Based on this distribution, the model provides a rich output summary, such as the number of incident and prevalent cases for each tracing disease and the Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALY), used to assess the impact of preventive interventions, and how this impact is shaped in time.ResultsThis paper focuses on the methodological aspects of the model. The proposed model is flexible and can be applied to estimate the impact of complex interventions on the two risk factors and adapted to consider different cohorts. We validate the model by simulating the evolution of the Italian population from 2009 to 2017 and comparing the output with historical data. Furthermore, as a case-study, we simulate a counterfactual scenario where both tobacco and sedentary lifestyle are eradicated from the Italian population in 2019 and estimate the impact of such intervention over the following 20 years.ConclusionsWe propose a Markovian model to estimate how interventions on smoking and sedentary lifestyle can affect the reduction of the disease burden, and validate the model on historical data. The model is flexible and allows to extend the analysis to consider more risk factors in future research. However, we are aware that, given the ever-increasing availability of data, it is necessary in the future to increase the complexity of the model, to be closer to reality and to provide decision-making support to the policy-makers.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on lung cancer diagnoses and mortality: A nationwide study in France

BackgroundDuring the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, a reduction in the number of newly diagnosed cases of lung cancer has been reported worldwide, often associated with a higher proportion of cases diagnosed at an advanced stage compared with previous years. MethodsUsing the French National Hospital Database, we investigated incident lung cancer cases and their mortality during pandemic years 2020 and 2021, compared to predictions based on pre-pandemic years 2013–2019. Mortality was assessed up to 24 months following incidence date. Expected numbers of incident cases and all-cause deaths during the pandemic were estimated using Poisson regression models and survival was analyzed using Cox regressions. ResultsThe database included 397,092 incident lung cancer cases in total, 20 % of whom underwent thoracic surgery. During the first pandemic wave (March–June 2020), there were 12 % i.e., 1940 fewer incident lung cancer cases than the expected figure (16,325), while no significant difference was found thereafter. Survival at 6 and 24 months improved steadily from 2013 to 2019 and continued to improve during pandemic years 2020–2021. However, during the first wave, a slight excess mortality was observed compared with predictions based on pre-pandemic trends. ConclusionsThe lower incidence observed during the first wave with no catch-up in the following periods could be explained by deaths among yet undiagnosed patients, either from COVID-19 or as a result of barriers to accessing healthcare. The excess mortality observed for both operated and non-operated patients may be attributable to delayed diagnosis, as well as to COVID-19-related deaths.

Global, regional, and national burden of upper respiratory infections, 1990–2021: findings from the global burden of disease study 2021

BackgroundUpper respiratory infections (URIs) are common infectious diseases worldwide. Accurate and timely assessment of the disease burden of URIs is crucial for governments to develop comprehensive prevention and control strategies, and to allocate and utilize healthcare resources more efficiently. MethodsFor URIs in Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database, age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPR), age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and case numbers for incidence, prevalence, deaths, and DALYs across the globe, five socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions, 21 geographical regions, and 204 countries and territories were provided and analyzed. Trends from 1990 to 2021 were described using the average annual percentage change (AAPC), and future URIs burden was projected with a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model. ResultsFrom 1990 to 2021, there was a significant decline in global ASIR (APCC = −289.86, 95% confidence interval [CI]: −298.59 – −281.12), ASPR (AAPC = −4.04, 95% CI: −4.16 – −3.92), ASMR (AAPC = −0.02, 95% CI: −0.02 – −0.03) and age-standardized DALY rate (AAPC = −0.75, 95% CI: −0.76 – −0.74). The ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, and age-standardized DALY rate were high in elderly for both males and females, and both genders. Similarly, the number of incident cases, prevalence cases, deaths, and DALY cases for URIs was highest in children under five years. The ASMR and age-standardized DALY rate exhibited a negative correlation with SDI across 204 countries and territories in 2021. The ASIR and ASPR for URIs will show an upward trend from 2022 to 2050, while ASMR and age-standardized DALY rate are expected to decline. Low birth weight for gestation remains the leading contributor to deaths related to URIs. ConclusionDespite the global decline in URIs burden, significant challenges remain among the elderly population. These findings support the optimization and implementation of public health policies, including targeted vaccination and integrated One Health approaches to reduce the burden in high-risk populations.

Epidemiological trends and clinical relevance of nontuberculous mycobacterial pulmonary disease in a referral hospital in Japan, 2017–2021

BackgroundEpidemiological trends and clinical relevance of NTM species in Japan following the adoption of matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry remain unclear. MethodsWe analyzed the results of mycobacterial culture tests of respiratory specimens collected between January 2017 and December 2021. We assessed the clinical relevance of NTM species by analyzing the proportion of patients diagnosed with NTM pulmonary infection (NTM-PI). We illustrated the incidence and clinical relevance of each NTM species using a two-dimensional scatter plot. Medical chart review and radiological analysis were also performed for less common species. ResultsAmong 65,368 respiratory specimens tested for acid-fast bacilli, NTM were identified in 12,802 specimens from 3177 patients. The number of incident cases with NTM-PI has continued to increase. Notably, the number of incident cases with M. abscessus species (MABS) was continuously increasing and accounted for 10.6% of all incident cases with NTM-PI. The clinical relevance of the common NTM species, M. avium complex, MABS and M. kansasii, ranged from 57 to 72%. Seven other species exhibited a higher clinical relevance than these common NTM species, with M. shinjukuense (100%) having the highest clinical relevance. On the other hand, 11 species, including M. fortuitum (32.4%), M. xenopi (20.0%), and M. gordonae (22.9%), showed clinical relevance below 50%. ConclusionsThe present study clarified the incidence and clinical relevance of NTM species using a two-dimensional scatter plot, which could serve as a useful tool for clinical decision-making and future epidemiological research.

Abstract A103: Feasibility of using data from the All of Us Research Program to better understand Asian American breast cancer risk

Abstract Asian Americans (AAs) are the only racial/ethnic group in the United States for whom cancer is the leading cause of death. In AA women, the rate of breast cancer (BC) has significantly increased in the past two decades. However, the reasons behind the observed increase in risk are not well understood. The All of Us (AoU) Research Program aims to enroll one million participants nationwide, focusing on including individuals from diverse backgrounds, to advance precision health research. The goal of this pilot study was to evaluate the feasibility of using AoU data to analyze factors potentially associated with breast cancer risk in AAs and to develop enhanced breast cancer prediction models. There were 3,433 self-reported AA women with available genomic data. In addition to the genomic data, data was available from surveys, participants’ electronic health records (EHRs), and physical measurements taken at the time of their study visit. BC cases were identified by self-report on surveys (n=38), EHR diagnosis data (n=104), or both survey and EHR (n=59), totaling 201 cases identified. Of these, only 17 were incident cases. Of the 163 cases detected in the EHR, 96.3% were invasive BCs, and the median age at diagnosis was 54.2 (±12.6) years. Among the 38 survey-only-identified cases, age at diagnosis was unclear due to the large age ranges (e.g.18-64 years) in the categories presented in the survey. For purposes of the case-control analysis, five AA women with no BC diagnosis were matched to each BC case by age group and geographic region. Body mass index, annual household income, marital status, history of alcohol consumption, and history of cigarette smoking and vaping were not statistically significantly different between cases and controls (a=0.05). One third (34.3%) of cases were born in the U.S. and 65.2% were born in another country vs. 25.0% and 74.0% of controls, respectively (p= 0.01). Employment status was also different, with 50.8% of cases being unemployed vs. 42.0% of controls (p=0.02). There appeared to be a difference in first-degree family history of BC (reported in 8% of cases vs. 5% of controls) although the results were not statistically significant (p=0.08). However, family history of BC data was not available for 43.3% and 51.0% of the cases and controls, respectively. Gynecologic factors, such as ages at menarche and menopause, and hormone use, were not asked in the surveys and were not widely captured in the EHR data. In our analysis of nine BC- associated genes (BRCA1, BRCA2, ATM, TP53, PTEN, CHEK2, CDH1, PALB2, STK11), pathogenic variants were identified in 1.0% of cases and 0.7% of controls. In summary, the AoU data set enables the study of a diverse national cohort with rich genomic data. However, the low representation of AAs, small numbers of incident cases, limited data on personal gynecologic history, cancer family history and social determinants of health, and broad categorization of age at diagnosis present challenges to using this data to build accurate and effective risk prediction models for BC risk in AAs. Citation Format: Catalina Haas Garcia, Wen-Pin Chen, Danni Liu, Alice W Lee, Min Zhang, Argyrios Ziogas, Sora Tanjasiri, Hannah Lui Park. Feasibility of using data from the All of Us Research Program to better understand Asian American breast cancer risk [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 17th AACR Conference on the Science of Cancer Health Disparities in Racial/Ethnic Minorities and the Medically Underserved; 2024 Sep 21-24; Los Angeles, CA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2024;33(9 Suppl):Abstract nr A103.

Burden of gastrointestinal cancers among working-age population over past thirty years in China.

Although gastrointestinal (GI) cancers have been becoming a great public health concern in China, there is currently a lack of comprehensive literature on the overall burden and changing trends of GI cancers in the working-age population. To assess the burden of GI cancers and to examine the overall, age- and gender-specific trends among the working-age population in China from 1990 to 2019. Data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The burden of GI cancers was indicated by incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rate, and age-standardized DALYs rate. Trends in the burden of GI cancers from 1990 to 2019 were examined using annual percent change and average annual percent change with Joinpoint regression models. For overall GI cancers, a declining trend was observed in the ASIR, age-standardized mortality rate, and age-standardized DALYs rate, with reductions of 0.74%, 2.23%, and 2.22%, respectively, from 1999 to 2019 in the Chinese working-age population. However, an increasing trend was observed in the ASIR for overall GI cancers from 2016-2019. The number of either incident cases, mortality cases, and DALYs was higher for colon/rectum cancer and liver cancer in younger participants but lower for esophageal, gallbladder, biliary tract, pancreatic, and stomach cancer among older subjects. Moreover, sex disparity in the GI cancers burden was also examined over 30 years. The total burden of GI cancers remained heavy among the working-age population in China, although declining trends were observed from 1999 to 2019. Disparities in the GI cancers burden existed between sexes, age groups, and cancer types. Population-based precision prevention strategies are needed to tackle GI cancers among working-age individuals, considering the age, sex, and cancer type disparities in China.

Incidence of Psoriatic Arthritis in a Primary Care Psoriasis Population in the United Kingdom.

To determine the annual incidence of psoriatic arthritis (PsA) in a United Kingdom primary care population with preexisting psoriasis (PsO) followed prospectively over 2 years after excluding baseline prevalence of existing disease. Total Burden of Psoriasis (TUDOR; ISRCTN registry: ISRCTN38877516) was a multicenter, prospective, 2-arm parallel-group cluster randomized controlled trial of the early identification of PsA by annual rheumatological assessment (termed "Enhanced Surveillance") vs standard care in people with PsO identified in primary care. Incidence of PsA is reported at 12 months and 24 months using patients from the Enhanced Surveillance arm, which allows for the exclusion of patients with prevalent PsA at baseline. Fourteen of 511 participants attending a 12-month screen developed PsA over that interval, giving an incidence of 2.74/100 patient-years (PYs; 95% CI 1.32-4.16). Another 7/444 participants attending the 24-month visit developed PsA, giving an incidence of 1.58/100 PYs (95% CI 0.42-2.74). The combined incidence over 2 years was 2.20/100 PYs (95% CI 1.27-3.13). The estimated annual incidence of PsA over a 2-year period was 2.20/100 PYs, which is in keeping with studies including clinical assessment rather than relying on health records alone. Extended follow-up of the TUDOR cohort with accrual of larger numbers of incident cases will allow risk factors for PsA to be explored in more depth.

Global, regional, and national burden and trends of migraine among youths and young adults aged 15–39 years from 1990 to 2021: findings from the global burden of disease study 2021

BackgroundMigraine, a widespread neurological condition, substantially affects the quality of life, particularly for adolescents and young adults. While its impact is significant, there remains a paucity of comprehensive global research on the burden of migraine in younger demographics. Our study sought to elucidate the global prevalence, incidence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) associated with migraine in the 15–39 age group from 1990 to 2021, utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study.MethodsOur comprehensive study analyzed migraine data from the GBD 2021 report, examining the prevalence, incidence, and DALYs across 204 countries and territories over a 32-year span. We stratified the information by age, sex, year, geographical region, and Socio-demographic Index (SDI). To evaluate temporal trends in these metrics, we employed the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) calculation.ResultsBetween 1990 and 2021, the worldwide prevalence of migraine among 15–39 year-olds increased substantially. By 2021, an estimated 593.8 million cases were reported, representing a 39.52% rise from 425.6 million cases in 1990. Global trends showed increases in age-standardized prevalence rate, incidence rate, and DALY rate for migraine during this period. The EAPC were positive for all three metrics: 0.09 for ASPR, 0.03 for ASIR, and 0.09 for DALY rate. Regions with medium SDI reported the highest absolute numbers of prevalent cases, incident cases, and DALYs in 2021. However, high SDI regions demonstrated the most elevated rates overall. Across the globe, migraine prevalence peaked in the 35–39 age group. Notably, female rates consistently exceeded male rates across all age categories.ConclusionThe global impact of migraine on youths and young adults has grown considerably from 1990 to 2021, revealing notable variations across SDI regions, countries, age groups, and sexes. This escalating burden necessitates targeted interventions and public health initiatives, especially in areas and populations disproportionately affected by migraine.

Cancer incidence and survival for 11 cancers in the Commonwealth: a simulation-based modelling study

The number of new cancer cases in Commonwealth countries rose by 35% between 2008 and 2018, but progress in cancer control has been slow in many low-income and lower-middle-income member states. We aimed to examine cancer outcomes and priority areas in the Commonwealth to provide insight and guidance on prioritisation of efforts to improve cancer survival and make the best use of scarce resources. We adapted a previously developed microsimulation model of global cancer survival for 11 cancer sites (oesophagus, stomach, colon, rectum, anus, liver, pancreas, lung, breast, cervix uteri, and prostate). All 56 Commonwealth countries were included and classified based on the 2020 World Bank Income groups (low-income, lower-middle-income, upper-middle-income, and high-income countries) and Commonwealth geographical areas. We modelled the number of incident cancer cases in each Commonwealth country in 2020, based on age group-specific estimates of incidence rates from GLOBOCAN 2020. We simulated 5-year net survival for each patient, accounting for the stage at diagnosis (I-IV), availability of specific treatment and imaging modalities, and quality of care (based on residual differences in expected versus observed survival after accounting for the availability and effectiveness of treatment and imaging modalities). We also simulated counterfactual policy scenarios, in which we scaled up various aspects of cancer care to the mean level of high-income countries to estimate the comparative effectiveness of different policies. Incident cancers in the Commonwealth accounted for an estimated 14·3% of global diagnosed cancer cases in 2020 among the 11 cancers modelled (1 610 000 Commonwealth cases [95% UI 1 556 000-1 674 000] of 11 227 000 global cases [11 069 000-11 406 000]) and are estimated to increase to 17·3% in 2050 due to population growth (3 330 000 [3 154 000-3 539 000] of 19 308 000 [18 706 000-19 911 000]). The 5-year net survival across 11 cancers combined in 2020 was 30·7% (95% UI 22·4-38·6) in Commonwealth countries, ranging from 4·1% (0·04-15·2) in low-income countries, 17·8% (3·7-30·9) in lower-middle-income countries, 33·1% (23·7-46·0) in upper-middle-income countries, to 59·0% (57·8-60·2) in high-income countries. Among single treatment policies, scaling up access to radiotherapy had the largest survival impact in low-income countries, surgery had the largest impact in lower-middle-income and upper-middle-income countries, and targeted therapy had the largest impact in high-income countries. By geographical area, improving radiotherapy availability was estimated to have the largest impact in Africa, surgery in Asia, targeted therapy in the Caribbean and the Americas and Europe, and quality of care in the Pacific Commonwealth countries. Comparing packages of scaling up the availability of all treatment modalities versus imaging modalities, expanding availability of imaging yielded the largest benefits in high-income countries, and in the Caribbean and the Americas, Europe, and the Pacific, whereas expanding treatment yielded larger benefits in all other income groups and geographical areas. We found large variation in 5-year net survival, with a nearly 15-times difference in cancer survival by country income group within the Commonwealth. Efforts to improve the availability of treatment and imaging modalities and quality of care will be crucial to reduce these disparities, with specific priorities of scale-up policies varying by setting. The Commonwealth could leverage a broad range of knowledge and resources and have an important role in supporting member countries with setting-specific priorities to improve cancer outcomes. Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health.

Global, regional, national epidemiology and trends of neglected tropical diseases in youths and young adults aged 15–39 years from 1990 to 2019: findings from the global burden of disease study 2019

BackgroundIn recent years, the escalating concern for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) has been recognized as a pressing global health issue. This concern is acutely manifested in low- and middle-income countries, where there is an escalating prevalence among adolescents and young adults. The burgeoning of these conditions threatens to impair patients' occupational capabilities and overall life quality. Despite the considerable global impact of NTDs, comprehensive studies focusing on their impact in younger populations remain scarce. Our study aims to describe the global prevalence of neglected tropical diseases among people aged 15 to 39 years over the 30-year period from 1990 to 2019, and to project the disease burden of the disease up to 2040.MethodsAnnual data on incident cases, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for NTDs were procured from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019). These data were stratified by global and regional distribution, country, social development index (SDI), age, and sex. We computed age-standardized rates (ASRs) and the numbers of incident cases, mortalities, and DALYs from 1990 to 2019. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) in the ASRs was calculated to evaluate evolving trends.ResultsIn 2019, it was estimated that there were approximately 552 million NTD cases globally (95% Uncertainty Interval [UI]: 519.9 million to 586.3 million), a 29% decrease since 1990. South Asia reported the highest NTD prevalence, with an estimated 171.7 million cases (95% UI: 150.4 million to 198.6 million). Among the five SDI categories, the prevalence of NTDs was highest in the moderate and low SDI regions in 1990 (approximately 270.5 million cases) and 2019 (approximately 176.5 million cases). Sub-Saharan Africa recorded the most significant decline in NTD cases over the past three decades. Overall, there was a significant inverse correlation between the disease burden of NTDs and SDI.ConclusionNTDs imposed over half a billion incident cases and 10.8 million DALYs lost globally in 2019—exerting an immense toll rivaling major infectious and non-communicable diseases. Encouraging declines in prevalence and disability burdens over the past three decades spotlight the potential to accelerate progress through evidence-based allocation of resources. Such strategic integration could substantially enhance public awareness about risk factors and available treatment options.

Global burden and trends in pre- and post-menopausal gynecological cancer from 1990 to 2019, with Projections to 2040: a cross-sectional study.

The global burden and trends in gynecological cancer (GC) by menopausal status worldwide remain unclear. Data on the number of incident cases and deaths, as well as age-standardized rates (ASR) and risk factors for GC in pre- and post-menopausal women were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. The estimated annual percent change was calculated to quantify the temporal trend of GC burden by menopausal status between 1990 and 2019. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict the trends in age-standardized incidence and mortality rates for pre- and post-menopausal GC during 2020-2040. In 2019, an estimated 400,146 premenopausal and 879,476 postmenopausal GC cases were newly diagnosed worldwide, with approximately 111,420 and 442,821 GC-related deaths occurring in each menopausal group, respectively. The majority of both pre- and post-menopausal GC cases in low- to middle-SDI regions was due to cervical cancer. In high- and high-middle-SDI regions, premenopausal GC was primarily attributed to cervical cancer, while postmenopausal GC was mainly attributed to uterine cancer. Additionally, the contribution of uterine cancer to GC was higher among postmenopausal women than premenopausal women, across all SDI levels and geographical regions. ASIRs either remained stable or increased from 1990 to 2019 worldwide for both pre- and post-menopausal GC (an average change of 0.03% [95% CI -0.02 to 0.08] and 0.09% [0.05 to 0.13] per year, respectively). However, the age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) declined by an annual average of 0.86% (95% CI -0.92 to -0.8) and 0.63% (95% CI -0.66 to -0.6) globally during the same period. The risk-attributable proportion of postmenopausal GC deaths was higher than that of premenopausal GC and increased with increasing SDI. The projections indicate an increasing trend in the burden of premenopausal GC from 2020 to 2040, while the burden of postmenopausal GC is expected to decline. GC continues to be a significant public health concern worldwide, with notable regional and demographic disparities in the burden based on menopausal status. Policymakers and health-care providers must be proactively aware of these evolving trends and tailor age-appropriate and region-specific screening strategies, as well as allocate resources accordingly.

Estimating the Acute Health Effects of Smoke Exposure from an Urban Factory Fire Accident: A Case Study of a Tire Factory Fire in Korea.

A major industrial fire accident occurred in a tire manufacturing factory in Daejeon, Korea, on 12 March 2023 and lasted for 3 d, generating air pollutant emissions. Although evidence regarding the health effects of urban fires is limited, residents near tire factory may have experienced health hazards due to smoke exposure from fire plumes. Capitalizing on the timing of this fire incident as a natural experiment, we estimated the attributable excess air pollution exposure and associated disease development among residents living near the tire factory. We used the generalized synthetic control method to estimate air pollution exposure and health burden attributable to the accident among residents living in smoke-exposed districts. Based on satellite images and air pollution monitoring results, three administrative districts (within from the factory) were defined as smoke-exposed, and the other 79 districts of Daejeon were defined as controls. Among the 11 monitoring stations in Daejeon, the station located from the factory was used to estimate excess air pollution exposure (, , , , , and CO) for residents in the exposed districts. The number of daily district-level disease-specific incidence cases were acquired from the National Health Insurance Database and used to estimate excess health burden resulting from the fire. During the first week following the factory fire, residents of exposed districts had an estimated excess exposure to 125.2 [95% confidence interval (CI): 44.9, 156.7] of , 50.4 (95% CI: 12.7, 99.8) ppb of , and 32.0 (95% CI: 21.0, 35.9) ppb of . We also found an average increase in the incidence cases of other diseases of upper respiratory tract [20.6 persons (95% CI: 6.2, 37.4)], lung disease due to external agents [2.5 persons (95% CI: 2.1, 3.3)], urticaria and erythema [5.9 persons (95% CI: , 11.2)], and episodic and paroxysmal disorders [8.5 persons (95% CI: 3.7, 13.4)] in exposed districts. Excessive air pollution exposure and disease incidence were identified among residents living close to the tire factory. Preventive measures, such as a warning system, to avoid health impacts to people breathing fire-related pollution may be beneficial for communities impacted by such events. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP14115.

The incidence, monitoring coverage and clinical characteristics of hydroxychloroquine retinopathy in the United Kingdom

BackgroundRetinal monitoring is recommended for hydroxychloroquine users to detect pre-symptomatic retinopathy and preserve visual function. However, the incidence of hydroxychloroquine retinopathy and monitoring coverage in the U.K. are incompletely characterised. Moreover, the visual benefits of monitoring for retinopathy – recommended for over 70,000 long-term hydroxychloroquine users in the U.K. - remain unproven.MethodsA national, prospective observational study was undertaken with the British Ophthalmological Surveillance Unit (BOSU). Newly diagnosed cases of hydroxychloroquine retinopathy in the U.K. were reported and data captured using a standardised questionnaire over 3.5 years (July 2018–Dec 2021). The frequency of retinopathy and coverage of monitoring amongst long-term users was estimated. Visual function was compared between asymptomatic individuals detected on monitoring and those presenting with visual symptoms. The clinical characteristics, dosing and management of reported cases were captured.ResultsThe annualised number of incident cases of hydroxychloroquine retinopathy was 29–57, with an annualised frequency of 0.04–0.08% amongst long-term users (~1 in 1247–2625). The coverage of monitoring was approximately 2.6–5.5%. Visual acuity (0.1 vs. 0.22 logMAR; p = 0.007) and visual field mean deviation (−3.73 dB vs. −8.69 dB; p = 0.017) were better preserved in asymptomatic individuals compared to those presenting with visual symptoms.ConclusionThese data support the efficacy of monitoring in the preservation of visual function in patients with hydroxychloroquine retinopathy at diagnosis. The overall population coverage of monitoring was low, consistent with the high proportion of symptomatic patients at diagnosis. This study presents a method for evaluating the yield of monitoring for hydroxychloroquine retinopathy in the U.K.

Worldwide burden of liver cancer across childhood and adolescence, 2000–2021: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Liver cancer is a significant contributor to the global disease burden, of which hepatoblastomas are the most common liver tumors in children, with 90% of cases occurring within the first 5 years of life. It is important for pediatricians and subspecialists in pediatric gastroenterology and hepatology to have knowledge of the epidemiology and incidence trends of pediatric hepatic cancer, despite its rarity. In the present study, we first provide estimates of the incidence and mortality burden of hepatoblastoma and liver cancer from 2000 to 2021 in the childhood and adolescence. Liver cancer burden and its attributable risk factors were estimated using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021. Percentage change was estimated to show the trend of liver cancer estimates from 2000 to 2021. The age-standardized rate (ASR) and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) were utilized for measuring hepatoblastomas incidence and deaths rate trends. In accordance with the GBD framework, 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for all estimates by averaging the data from 1000 draws, with the lower and upper bounds of the 95% UIs. Globally, from 2000 to 2021 in the age 5-19 years group, the incidence cases and deaths cases due to liver cancer decreased from 2449.2 (95% UI: 2235.9-2689.8) to 1692.9 (95% UI: 1482.0-1992.5) and 2248.5 (95% UI: 2053.7-2474.9) to 1516.6 (95% UI: 1322.1-1797.9), respectively. Meanwhile, from 2000 to 2021 in the age 20-24 years group, the incidence cases and deaths cases due to liver cancer decreased from 1453.5 (95% UI: 1327.8-1609.4) to 1285.1 (95% UI: 1159.2-1447.2) and 1432.3 (95% UI: 1307.6-1585.7) to 1195.5 (95% UI: 1066.1-1355.2), respectively. In addition, the prevalence of liver cancer decreased from 41.9% (95% UI: 18.7%-64.7%) to 26.4% (95% UI: 14.2%-39.1%) in the age 5-19 years group, and 46.6% (95% UI: 42.8%-51.5%) to 36.5% (95% UI: 33.1%-40.9%) in the age 20-24 years. From 2000 to 2021, in the age group of 5-19 years, the proportion of liver cancer incidence due to hepatitis B has decreased from 42.2% to 37.9%, while the proportion due to hepatitis C has increased from 1.1% to 1.6%. Additionally, there has been an increase in the proportion of NASH-induced liver cancer incidence from 5.2% to 9.4%, and alcohol use induced liver cancer incidence has also increased from 0.5% to 0.7% over the same period. Globally, from 2000 to 2021, the incidence cases and deaths cases due to hepatoblastoma decreased from 6131.8 (95%UI: 5234.8-6961.9) to 4045.6 (95% UI: 3250-4995.8) and 4059.2 (95% UI: 3494.5-4621.2) to 2416 (95% UI: 1940.2-3022.5), respectively. There was some variation in age-related sex-specific patterns, the highest number of hepatoblastoma incidence cases occurred in children between 2 and 4 years old and females in the age range of 12 months to 9 years had a higher number of new cases. Importantly, the incidence of hepatoblastoma was started to increase sharply after the age of 1 month. The results of the present study are significant for liver health policy and practice in childhood and adolescence. Differentiated intervention and outreach strategies based on age and gender would be necessary to reduce the impact of liver cancer. Early screening and interventions for hepatoblastoma is important especially in the population of under 9 years old. This study was supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (grant numbers 2023YFC2307000), National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant numbers 82170571 and 81974068], China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (grant numbers 2023M741283).

Global, regional, and national burden and trends analysis of malignant neoplasm of bone and articular cartilage from 1990 to 2021: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundMalignant neoplasm of bone and articular cartilage (MNBAC) is one of the causes of cancer-related deaths worldwide. To date, there is a lack of detailed studies on the disease burden of MNBAC. MethodsData on the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of MNBAC from 1990 to 2021 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease study. We estimated the trends in the burden of MNBAC by calculating the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) in age-standardized rates by region, country, and social development index. ResultsGlobally, the cases of incidence and deaths of MNBAC showed a significant upward trend. In 2021, the global incidence cases of MNBAC were 91,375.1 (73,780.4–102,469.7), and the number of deaths was 66,114.3 (53,305.4–74,466.9). The age-standardized incidence, mortality, and DALYs rates were all on the rise, with EAPCs of 0.59 (0.51 to 0.68), 0.11 (0.02 to 0.21), and 0.08 (0 to 0.17), respectively. In 2021, China had the highest number of incidence cases and deaths. Two peaks in incidence cases and deaths were observed in the 15–19 and 65–69 age groups, with incidence rates and death rates generally increasing with age, and higher in males than females. The region with the highest incidence cases, deaths, and age-standardized incidence rate was East Asia, while Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest age-standardized mortality, and DALYs rates. ConclusionFrom 1990 to 2021, the global burden of MNBAC has continued to increase, particularly in East Asia, which faces the highest number of incidence cases and deaths, while Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa faces the highest ASMR and ASDR. To mitigate this burden, different regions should develop cancer control actions based on their respective epidemiological characteristics, with a focus on the elderly and adolescents, and control of risk factors.

Global, regional, and national burden of thalassemia during 1990-2019: A systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Thalassemia represents a significant public health challenge globally. However, the global burden of thalassemia and the disparities associated with it remain poorly understood. Our study aims to uncover the long-term spatial and temporal trends in thalassemia at global, regional, and national levels, analyze the impacts of age, time periods, and birth cohorts, and pinpoint the global disparities in thalassemia burden. We extracted data on the thalassemia burden from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019. We employed a joinpoint regression model to assess temporal trends in thalassemia burden and an age-period-cohort model to evaluate the effects of age, period, and cohort on thalassemia mortality. From 1990 to 2019, the number of thalassemia incident cases, prevalent cases, mortality cases, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) decreased by 20.9%, 3.1%, 38.6%, and 43.1%, respectively. Age-standardized rates of incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYdeclined across regions with high, high-middle, middle, and low-middle sociodemographic index (SDI), yet remained the highest in regions with low SDI and low-middle SDI as well as in Southeast Asia, peaking among children under five years of age. The global prevalence rate was higher in males than in females. The global mortality rate showed a consistent decrease with increasing age. The global burden of thalassemia has significantly declined, yet notable disparities exist in terms of gender, age groups, periods, birth cohorts, SDI regions, and GBD regions. Systemic interventions that include early screening, genetic counseling, premarital health examinations, and prenatal diagnosis should be prioritized in regions with low, and low-middle SDI, particularly in Southeast Asia. Future population-based studies should focus specifically on thalassemia subtypes and transfusion requirements, and national registries should enhance data capture through newborn screening.

The Impact of Human Cystic Echinococcosis in the Central Asian Region, 1990-2019.

This research aims to update knowledge on the regional and national sickness burden attributable to cystic echinococcosis (CE) from 1990 to 2019, as well as epidemiology and disease control, with a particular emphasis on the People's Central Asian Regions. We calculated the morbidity, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years at the global, regional, and national levels for CE in all central Asian countries from 1990 to 2019, and we analyzed the association between GDP per capita and the disease burden of CE. In 2019, the three greatest numbers of CE cases were recorded in Kazakhstan [23986; 95% uncertainty interval (UI); 19796; 28908]; Uzbekistan (41079; 18351; 76048); and Tajikistan (10887; 4891; 20170) among all 9 countries. The three countries with the greatest ASIR of CE were estimated to be Kazakhstan (127.56; 95% UI: 105.34-153.8), Uzbekistan (123.53; 95% UI: 58.65-219.16), and Tajikistan (121.88; 58.57-213.93). Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan had the biggest increases (125%, 97%, and 83%, respectively) in the number of incident cases of CE, whereas Georgia, Kazakhstan, and Armenia saw the largest decreases (45%, 8%, and 3%, respectively). To reduce the illness burden caused by CE, our findings may help public health professionals and policymakers design cost-benefit initiatives. To lessen the impact of CE on society, it is suggested that more money be given to the region's most endemic nations. Echinococcosis, cystic, negative health effects, life-years lost due to disability, rate of occurrence as a function of age, rate of death as a function of age.

Global burden of fungal skin diseases: An update from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019.

Fungal skin diseases are the most common and widespread fungal infections, exerting a significant impact on patients' socio-psychological health and the quality of life. To assess and compare the global burden of fungal skin diseases in 2019 and over the past 30 years. Data were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Incidence and years lived with disability (YLDs) were used to assess the burden of fungal skin diseases. A total of 204 countries and territories were hierarchically organised into 21 regions and seven super-regions. Data were presented as absolute numbers and rates per 100,000 population, stratified by sex, age, year and location. In 2019, the global incidence rate and YLD rate of fungal skin diseases were 21,277 (95% UI 19 298-23,399) and 42 (95% UI 17-88) per 100,000 population, respectively. Sub-Saharan Africa bore the heaviest disease burden, especially children aged 5-9 years had a significantly higher incidence rate, YLD rate and YLDs to incidence ratio compared to other regions. Moreover, more than half of the incident cases among the elderly came from high-income regions and Southeast Asia, East Asia, and Oceania. Over the past 30 years, the number of incident cases and YLDs of fungal skin diseases has been continuously increasing worldwide, but the incidence rates and YLD rates have not shown significant changes. The global burden of fungal skin diseases has been continuously rising. Children in Sub-Saharan Africa are experiencing higher disease incidence and severity compared to other regions.

Comparative performance of hybrid model based on discrete wavelet transform and ARIMA models in prediction incidence of COVID-19

ObjectivePublic health surveillance is an important aspect of outbreak early warning based on prediction models. The present study compares a hybrid model based on discrete wavelet transform (DWT) and ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) for predicting incidence cases due to COVID-19. MethodsIn the current cross-sectional stuady based on time-series data, the incidence data for confirmed daily cases of COVID-19 from February 26, 2019, to April 25, 2022, were used. A hybrid model based on DWT and ARIMA and a pure ARIMA model were used to predict the trend. All analyzes were performed by MATLAB 2018, stata 2015, and Excel 2013 computer software. ResultsCompared to the ARIMA model, the prediction results of the hybrid model were closer to the actual number of incident cases. The correlation between predicted values by the hybrid model with real data was higher than the correlation between predicted values by the ARIMA model with actual data. ConclusionsDiscreet Wavelet decomposition of the dataset was combined with an ARIMA model and showed better performance in predicting the future trend.

Background Rates of Adverse Events of Special Interest for COVID-19 Vaccine Safety Monitoring in South Korea

Objectives: This study aimed to estimate background incidence rates (IR) for adverse events of special interest (AESI) associated with COVID-19 vaccines in South Korea. Methods: We used data from the Korean National Health Insurance Service-National Sample Cohort from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2019, with IR calculated annually. Eight AESIs including acute myocarditis, acute pericarditis, acute disseminated encephalomyelitis (ADEM), acute transverse myelitis (ATM), encephalitis, anaphylaxis, Bell’s palsy, and lymphadenitis were evaluated. Two operational strategies were implemented: a broad definition using ICD-10 codes for primary or secondary diagnoses to enhance sensitivity, and a narrow definition integrating ICD-10 codes with procedure and drug codes for enhanced accuracy and specificity. IR was calculated by dividing the number of incident cases by the total person-time at risk, with separate analyses by sex and age. Results: During the study period, the incidence of anaphylaxis, Bell’s palsy, and lymphadenitis under the broad definition continued to increase. Under the narrow definition, there were no reported cases of acute myocarditis or Bell’s palsy from 2015 to 2019. Additionally, the incidence rates for acute pericarditis, ADEM, ATM, encephalitis, anaphylaxis, and lymphadenitis were lower than those calculated under the broad definition. Males generally had higher rates, except for Bell’s palsy and lymphadenitis. Most AESIs were more common in individuals aged 65 and older, whereas ADEM and lymphadenitis were higher in children aged 0-19 years. Conclusions: Variability in AESI rates emphasizes the importance of considering definitions and demographics when establishing background rates for surveillance, which is a critical aspect of monitoring vaccine safety.