Number Of Previous Convictions Research Articles

A MACHINE LEARNING CLUSTER MODEL FOR THE DECISION-MAKING SUPPORT IN CRIMINAL JUSTICE

In a modern digital society, information technologies play a crucial role in security policy. The increase in the number of criminals and the expansion of the range of crimes committed by them, which is observed all over the world, poses serious risks to the personal safety of citizens, the internal security of the country, and international security. Identifying links between the individual characteristics of prisoners and their criminal recidivism can help to solve serial crimes, develop new crime prevention strategies, and provide reliable support for public safety decisions.
 The presented work is a part of research on the development of information and analytical support for decision-making systems in criminal justice. This document presents a new analytical approach to criminal profiling. It is a case study of a unique real-world dataset of 13,010 criminal convicts. The k-means clustering technique was used to determine significant indicators (individual characteristics of prisoners) that determine the propensity of convicts to commit repeated criminal offenses. The built clustering model makes obvious the connection between the propensity for criminal recidivism and the following elements of the criminal profile: the number of previous convictions, the age at the time of the first conviction, the presence of conditional convictions, and early releases. The developed models can be applied to new criminal convicted datasets. The dynamic interaction of information technology and the criminal justice system will help reduce crime and strengthen internal security.

Ethnicity, gender and community sentences

ObjectivesThis paper presents findings from administrative data analysis examining differences between ethnic groups and men and women in the number and type of requirements that make up community sentences as well as the effectiveness of different requirements in terms of successful completion of the sentence.
 MethodsThe paper presents findings from analysis of the Data First probation and criminal justice linked datasets. The analysis will focus on whether:
 
 there are differences between ethnic groups and men and women in the number and type of requirements that make up community-based orders (rehabilitation, unpaid work, curfew and accredited programmes)
 some requirements are more effective in terms of successful completion of the order.
 
 The paper presents findings from regression analysis used to examine the above relationships while controlling for other relevant variables such as age, number of previous convictions and offence type.
 FindingsGraphs will be used to set out differences between broad ethnic groups and men and women in the total number of requirements which make up community-based orders and the proportion of offenders from each group which receive each of the main types of requirement namely: rehabilitation; unpaid work; curfew; and accredited programmes. Graphs will also be used to set out differences between the different order requirements in terms of successful completion. The paper will also present findings from regression analysis which will identify differences after taking account of other factors. The findings will of necessity be based on broad ethnic groups as it is unlikely that there will be sufficient numbers of people within more narrow ethnic groups to meet statistical disclosure criteria.
 ConclusionThere is a lack of information on relationships between ethnicity, gender and community sentences. Better understanding of these relationships has been identified as crucial by HM Inspectorate of Probation. This paper provides more information on these relationships enabling policy decisions to be better targeted to provide equality of outcomes.

Logic of Law: Criminal Profiling Strategy

Criminal profiling is used when making decisions on issues in which the cost of a mistake is a person's freedom or life, so it is essential to choose a rational approach and maintain objectivity. Applying the scientific method is the first step of a chain of steps that can level up the effects of even the most common subtle forms of bias, conscious or unconscious, that are distorted by context and the psychological state of the decision-maker. Criminal profiling is considered as one of the decision support strategies in criminal justice. Based on a unique set of statistical and dynamic data of a sociological survey of 13,010 convicts who are serving sentences in penitentiary institutions in Ukraine, a cluster model was built to determine significant indicators of criminal recidivism. The conducted empirical analysis gives reasons to conclude that the number of previous convictions, the age at the time of the first conviction, conditional convictions, and early releases causes the maximum influence on the probability of criminal recidivism. Criminal profiling does not provide conclusive evidence to solve a case or lead to a new line of investigation, but it cannot be denied that criminal profiling is not valuable in some, albeit exceptional, cases. Criminal profiling is effective in cases involving hostage-taking, rapists, arson, sexual murders, serial crimes, and identifying the authors of threatening letters. The built cluster model simplifies the understanding of criminal behavior and the relationship between the details of the profile of the criminal and provides support for decision-making in criminal justice, for example, when detecting fraudulent actions, predicting the possibility of recidivism, reducing bias when making pre-trial or trial decisions. However, much more research is needed before criminal profiling becomes widely accepted as a reliable forensic tool. One of the following stages of the research is possible like the classification of convicts according to their probable tendency to recidivism based on the analysis of their statistical and dynamic characteristics.

L’intelligence artificielle peut-elle aider à estimer le risque de récidive dans les comportements violents ?

In forensic psychiatry, magistrates raise the question of the existence of a risk of recidivism and dangerousness to psychiatric experts. Follow-up studies in forensic psychiatry showed that the psychiatric elements predictive of recidivism were mainly related to serious mental illnesses, toxic consumption, addictions, high levels of impulsivity, low insight, associated personality disorders, in particular antisocial personality disorders. There are also protective factors, in particular the observance of treatments. Given the complexity of psychiatric and criminological risk factors and protection, can artificial intelligence (AI) help psychiatrists and magistrates to improve the predictivity of recidivism? MethodsSystematic review of the literature on AI applications in the prediction of recidivism in forensic psychiatry, conducted according to PRISMA criteria, using the: “Artificial Intelligence”, “Recidivism”, “Personality Disorder”, “Impulsive” Behavior”, “Alcohol abuse”, “Drug Abuse”, “Schizophrenia”, “Bipolar disorder” on the PubMed, Science Direct, Clinical Trial and Google Scholar databases. ResultsThe vast majority of studies come from legal or computer reviews and very few from medical databases. The studies evaluating the AI in Forensic Psychiatry most often used Machine Learning based on sociodemographic, sociological and criminological data, notably the age of the first offense and the number of previous convictions. To date, there are very few studies evaluating psychiatric parameters, focusing on psychopathic personality disorders. Discussion/conclusionThe applications of the AI in Forensic Psychiatry are still very premature. However, some psychiatric criteria should be more prominent in this field, especially those from Webster's HCR-20 and Hare PCL-R scales. The challenge will also be to find relevant behavioral, psychological and psychiatric keywords to include in AI.

A Hidden Gem Becomes a Fertile Mining Ground: Historic Prison Admission Books and Data-Driven Digital Projects

A Hidden Gem Becomes a Fertile Mining Ground: Historic Prison Admission Books and Data-Driven Digital Projects S. L. Ziegler (bio) and Steve Marti (bio) Keywords Collections as Data, Digitization, Digital Scholarship, Digital Humanities, Data, Prison Records, Digital Projects, Philadelphia, Eastern State Penitentiary, Digital History, Public History, Incarceration The library of the american philosophical society holds three admission books that provide a personal biography of each inmate at the Eastern State Penitentiary. The books, covering the years 1830–50 (with a gap in the 1840s), contain information about each prisoner, including their name, age, the crimes for which they had been convicted, their sentence, and often a note on when they were freed (or died). Also included, though less consistently, is gender, race, and religious affiliation. Additionally, the penitentiary’s moral instructor, a religious authority figure, recorded a paragraph-length note on each inmate detailing their religious education and other biographical details (fig. 1). Donated to the APS Library between 2000 and 2002, the admission books complement and extend a larger collection of material related to the Eastern State Penitentiary. Within this collection is a wide variety of treasures. One such treasure is a set of correspondence from a prisoner in the penitentiary, Elizabeth Velora Elwell, addressed to another inmate. According to the collection’s finding aid, the letters “suggest that Elwell carried a passionate love for a fellow prisoner at Eastern State, Albert Green Jackson, with hints that they may have met clandestinely on more than one occasion. It appears that the two had plans to marry when their terms expired.”1 The collection also contains a number of other volumes that detail the bureaucratic functioning of the penitentiary, including the daily rations and the overseer’s roll.2 Even within this collection of gems, the admission books command [End Page 363] Click for larger view View full resolution Fig. 1. Sample page from Admission Book A, showing typical entries including name, age, offense, and note by the moral instructor. [End Page 364] special attention. The mix of biographical information, demographics, and moral commentary provides both a glimpse into the population of the penitentiary and into the beliefs that guided the institution. When digitized and transformed into a dataset, the admission books became a particularly fertile mining ground for historical insights. In 2015, the APS Library digitized the admission books. Then, in 2016 and 2017, the library transcribed the content into spreadsheets. The library published the data in a variety of outlets and encouraged scholars to use the data for a wide range of projects.3 In late 2017, the APS Library published a digital project based on the historic prison dataset. The project, “Eastern Apps: Visualizing Historic Prison Data,” presents a suite of apps that allows users to generate interactive visualizations as a means of exploring the data through text-mining techniques and statistical analysis.4 The first app analyzes word frequency in the moral instructor’s notes. This app constructs corpora based on user input and presents both word clouds and word frequency graphs (figs. 2 and 3). Additionally, users can explore specific words and phrases in context (figs. 4 and 5). The repetition of words by the moral instructor, and variation in usage over the years, reveals patterns in the individual descriptions of inmates. The second app graphs sentencing length and maps sentencing location based on selected variables that include gender, age, place of birth, ethnicity, literacy, marital status, sobriety, charge, number of previous convictions, and admission year.5 Modifying these variables updates both the map and the graph (fig. 6). The map produced by this app shows courts where inmates were sentenced and displays the average sentence length. The outer circle (styled red in the online version) corresponds to the average sentence length; the inner circle (styled blue in the online version) corresponds to the number of cases from that area (fig. 7). The graph shows variation in sentence length. The x-axis corresponds to the length of the sentence in months; the y-axis corresponds to the number of inmates who received a sentence of that length. [End Page 365] Click for larger view View full resolution Fig. 2. Word clouds created from...

Формирование личности несовершеннолетнего правонарушителя

This paper attempts the following: (a) to discuss the domestic concepts of thedelinquent’s personality; (b) to analyze the age characteristics of puberty and variousviews on the factors influencing the delinquent’s personality; (c) to present the study ofpersonal traits of adolescents committed a theft and the influence of a family situationand the criminal social environment on illegal behavior; (d) to reveal the associationamong aggressiveness, anxiety, and frustration, as well as their role in human behavior.
 The results of the study indicated the following: (a) Delinquent adolescents had a high level of anxiety (both situational and personal) and high levels of rigidity and frustration. (b) A negative family situation influenced the delinquent adolescent’s personality. (c) Juvenile delinquents explained their own nonconformity by inconsequent parental upbringing. (d) Delinquent adolescents emphasized fathers’ directivity in their upbringing. (e) The educational influence of fathers was important in forming the adolescent’s delinquency. (f) The mother’s control of the adolescent’s behavior influenced the development of a law-abiding person. (g) The influence of relatives who had previously served a sentence of deprivation of liberty determined delinquent adolescents’ neuroticism and its illegality.The main results revealed the following psychological defense mechanisms in delinquent adolescents: projection (attributing one’s own thoughts, feelings, motives, and traits to anyone or anything, as well as the perception of internal phenomena as external ones) and rationalization (substitution of true reasons of behavior or decisions for other rational explanations safe for self-appraisal).Delinquent adolescents’ neuroticism correlated with previous convictions of close relatives. These results suggest that emotional instability is a consequence of convicted family members’ influence and explain the criminal manifestation of neuroticism and anxiety. The number of previous convictions correlated with delinquents’ emotional instability.

Using structural equation modeling to assess the impact of factors on sexual risk and delinquent behavior in Dutch female offenders

Research shows that juvenile female offenders have a higher prevalence rate of sexual risk behaviors than girls from the general population and that similar factors underlie both SRBs and delinquent behavior. Contributing to findings derived from young female delinquent samples, this study examines the impact of risk factors on delinquent behaviors and sexual risk behaviors in 146 delinquent girls (12 to 18years) in outpatient forensic treatment. While controlling for ethnicity, results from structural equation modeling through bootstrapping showed that sexual risk behaviors (explained variance 26%) were predicted by the number of negative life events, peer rejection, and substance use, whereas the number of previous convictions and treatment dropout were predictive of delinquent behavior (explained variance 14.1%). Affiliation with deviant peers, parental monitoring, and conduct problems did not contribute to the explained variance in both outcome measures. These findings will be elaborated on in the discussion.

Reasoning and Rehabilitation cognitive skills programme for mentally disordered offenders: Predictors of outcome

AIMTo investigate factors predicting treatment completion and treatment outcome of the Reasoning and Rehabilitation Mental Health Programme (R&R2MHP) cognitive skills programme for mentally disordered offenders.METHODSSecondary analysis of data previously obtained from 97 male patients who were sectioned and detained under the United Kingdom Mental Health Act in low, medium and high security hospitals and who had completed R&R2MHP. Predictors of treatment completion included background variables and five outcome measures: Four self-reported measures of violent attitudes, social problem-solving skills, reactive anger and locus of control and an objective measure of behaviour on the ward that was completed by staff. Completion of the 16 session programme, which was delivered on a weekly basis, was classified as ≥ 12 sessions.RESULTSIt was found that the R&R2MHP is appropriate for delivery to participants of different ages, ethnic background, and at different levels of security without the completion rate or treatment effectiveness being compromised. Participants taking oral typical psychotropic medication were over seven times more likely to complete the programme than other participants. Behavioural disturbance on the ward prior to commencing the programme predicted non-completion (medium effect size). As far as treatment completion was concerned, none of the background factors predicted treatment effectiveness (age, ethnic background, level of security, number of previous convictions and number of previous hospital admissions). The best predictor of treatment effectiveness was attitude towards violence suggesting that this should be the primary outcome measure in future research evaluating outcomes of the R&R2MHP cognitive skills program.CONCLUSIONThe findings suggest that a stable mental state is a key factor that predicts treatment completion.

The impact of case factors on jurors’ decisions in a sexual violent predator hearing.

Twenty states, the District of Columbia, and the federal government allow for the postincarceration, indeterminate civil commitment of sexual violent predators (SVPs). Yet, although a large number of individuals has been committed under these laws, relatively little is known about how jurors make decisions in these proceedings. Using a sample of 274 jury-eligible participants and a trial transcript based on an actual SVP proceeding, we systematically manipulated legal (standards of proof), victim (ages of previous victims), offender (number of previous convictions), and expert (expressed level of offender’s future risk) testimony characteristics to determine which, if any, of these factors affected mock jurors’ decisions. Results indicated that both the offender’s number of prior convictions and expert testimony on the offender’s level of future risk independently influenced jurors’ commitment judgments. These findings raise the possibility that jurors may be double counting certain evidence, because previous convictions were explicitly contained in the risk assessment and provided as part of the expert’s risk judgment. Differences in the standards of proof and ages of previous victims had no impact on jurors’ verdicts. The legal and constitutional implications of jurors’ insensitivity to changes in the proof threshold are discussed, as are the problems associated with jurors’ placing independent weight on prior convictions in their decisions.

Kidnapping offenders: Their risk of escalation to repeat offending and other serious crime

Kidnapping is a rare offence and is also rarely considered by researchers. We extracted from the England and Wales Offenders Index all 7362 offenders (93% males and 7% females) convicted of kidnapping from 1979 to 2001. We examined the time from first conviction for kidnapping to some specific subsequent serious crimes: subsequent kidnap, murder, manslaughter, or rape of a female. Two survival analysis procedures were used: Kaplan-Meier estimation as a nonparametric procedure, and the Cox proportional hazards model as a semi-parametric model. Kidnappers are more likely to be convicted of another kidnapping offence than be convicted of the more serious offences of rape of a female or homicide. One can estimate that five out of every 100 kidnapping offenders convicted of first-time kidnapping will be reconvicted for this offence within 20 years. Incontrast, one in every 100 kidnapping offenders will be convicted of homicide within 20 years, and close to two out of every 100 will be convicted of rape of a female within 20 years. Number of previous convictions is a significant risk factor for each of these serious reconvictions, with age at first kidnapping also a significant risk factor for kidnapping reconviction. Kidnappers are over 30 times more likely than males in the general population to be convicted of homicide and fourtimes more likely than sex offenders. There should be, therefore, more focus on kidnappers as a potentially dangerous set of offenders.

The Enforcement of Speeding: Should Fines Be Higher for Repeated Offences?

Speed limits are a well-known instrument to improve traffic safety. However, speed limits alone are not enough; there is need for enforcement of these limits. When one observes fine structures for speed offences one often finds two characteristics. First, the fine increases with the severity of the violation. Secondly, the fine depends on the speeders' offence history. We focus on this last point and confront two fine structures, both increasing with speed: a uniform fine and a differentiated fine, which depends on the offence history. Drivers differ in their propensity to have an accident and hence in their expected accident costs. Literature then prescribes that the fine for bad drivers should be higher than for good drivers. However, the government does not know the type of the driver. We develop a model where the number of previous convictions gives information on the type of the driver. We find that the optimal fine structure depends on the probability of detection and on the strength of the relationship between the type and having a record. We illustrate this by means of a numerical example.

The Enforcement of Speeding: Should Fines be Higher for Repeated Offences?

When the fine structures for speeding offences are observed, it is often found that fines depend on speeders’ offence history. In this paper we devise two fine structures: a uniform fine, and a fine which depends on offence history. If drivers differ in their expected accident costs, the literature prescribes that the fine for bad drivers should be higher than for good drivers. However, governments do not know the type of driver. We develop a model where the number of previous convictions gives information on the type of driver. We find that the optimal fine structure depends on the probability of detection, and on the strength of the relationship between the type of driver and having a record. We illustrate this by means of a numerical example and show that, for reasonable values for the probability of detection, a uniform fine is preferred.

Duration of the time to reconviction: Evidence from UK prisoner discharge data

Duration models were used to investigate reconviction risks for a sample of 34,126 offenders released from prison in England and Wales during 1998. Different versions of the Cox proportional hazards model were applied to a comprehensive data set covering several offense types. Factors such as age (modelled using bands rather than a linear or quadratic format), gender, convictions-history, and offense type were found to be strongly associated with the risk of reconviction. Interactions between factors were also included and it was shown that the discrepancy between the risk of reconviction for males and females became weaker as the number of previous convictions increased. The study helped identify the subgroups of offenders for whom reconviction risks are greatest and the times when they seem to be most vulnerable to reconviction. Implications are explored for the design of prisoner resettlement programs and the prioritization of offenders for more intensive forms of intervention.

Characteristics of mentally disordered offenders referred for low secure forensic rehabilitation

In the light of recognition of an increased need for secure mental health provision both at a local and national level, a 12-bed low secure forensic rehabilitation unit, Hillis Lodge, was opened in Birmingham in 2001. The aim of this study was to investigate characteristics of patients referred to this service. A retrospective case note survey was undertaken of all referrals to Hillis Lodge between August 2000 and April 2004. A comparison was then made between the accepted group and those not accepted for admission to identify characteristics that may be associated with admission to a low secure forensic unit. For the referred sample, mean age was 38 years (range 23-65 years, SD = 9.17) and in 86.4% of cases the primary diagnosis was schizophrenia. Those accepted were more likely to be detained under Part III sections of the Mental Health Act 1983 and have a greater number of previous convictions. By identifying need in this particular patient sample, this study has helped to inform the assessment process and treatment programmes in a low secure forensic rehabilitation service.

Does executive functioning predict improvement in offenders' behaviour following enhanced thinking skills training? An exploratory study with implications for rehabilitation

Purpose. This study focused upon whether outcome following Enhanced Thinking Skills (ETS) groups for incarcerated offenders could be predicted by the offenders' pre‐training levels of executive function. It also addressed whether this predictive function was above and beyond that predicted by intelligence, demographic information, conviction history, emotional distress and social compliance.Methods. Offenders due to undergo ETS were assessed using a battery of neuropsychological measures of executive functioning and other psychometric instruments. Change in behaviour following ETS was assessed using the Behaviour Rating Scale (BRS). The results of this assessment were entered into regression analyses, with the post‐ETS changes in the positive and negative scales of the BRS as the independent variables in 2 separate analyses.Results. Aspects of executive functioning related to attentional set shifting ability were found to be highly predictive of outcome, with those with relatively weaker executive functioning showing the most improvement. Participant age and number of previous convictions were found to be predictive of reductions in negative behaviour but not of improvements in positive behaviour, with older participants and those with more previous convictions showing the greatest degree of improvement.Conclusions. ETS can be of particular benefit to those offenders with relatively poor executive functioning.

Internal reliability and construct validity of the Novaco Anger Scale-1998-S in a sample of violent prison inmates in Sweden

In this study, the internal reliability and construct validity of the recently adapted Swedish version of the Novaco Anger Scale (NAS-1998-S; Lindqvist, Dåderman, & Hellström, Social Behavior and Personality, 8, 773–788, 2003), as well as its scale correlations with demographic and criminality variables, were investigated. Construct validity was established by assessing the correlation pattern of the scales of NAS-1998-S with concurrent scales of similar and distinct constructs. Ninety-five male violent prisoners, ranging in age from 18 to 67 years, participated. The results demonstrated good internal reliability, consistent intrascale relationships, and appropriate construct validity of NAS-1998-S. The number of previous convictions had a moderate negative relationship with the capacity of control. Age and education correlated negatively with the NAS-1998-S scales, except Regulation. In addition to psychometric issues, the results were discussed from a clinical perspective on the offender population.

Evaluating the “Reasoning and Rehabilitation” Program for Young Offenders

The effectiveness of the Reasoning and Rehabilitation (R and R) program with juvenile offenders in an English prison was evaluated using reconviction and reimprisonment at eighteen months post-release as outcomes. A group of offenders who completed the program (n = 31) were compared with a group of offenders who did not receive the program (n = 31). The comparison group was created by retrospectively matching offenders by offence type, sentence length, age, and number of previous convictions. A small reduction in reconviction during the first eighteen months after release was found for the treatment group, although the difference was not significant. A slightly larger reduction in reimprisonment for the treatment group was found, but again the difference was not statistically significant. No significant differences were observed between the survival curves for the two groups. These findings contrast with more positive outcomes reported by large-scale studies of the R and R program with adult males in the UK and Canada. Possible explanations for these findings are discussed.

Predicting reconviction using the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles with English prisoners

Purpose. The purpose of this study was to investigate the utility of the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles (PICTS) in predicting reconviction in a sample of male prisoners.Method. The PICTS was administered to 174 incarcerated male offenders at the point of their release from prison. Reconviction data were collected at a 2‐year follow‐up.Results. Of the eight PICTS scales, only superoptimism differed significantly between reconvicted and non‐reconvicted prisoners, even when age and number of previous convictions were controlled for. Reconvicted offenders scored significantly higher on superoptimism, indicating a more criminal attitude. This finding was supported by a sequential logistic regression, where superoptimism contributed significant predictive power to predicting reconviction beyond a model containing age and number of previous convictions.Conclusions. The results are compared with previous research using the PICTS to predict release outcome. The utility of the PICTS as a predictor for release outcome is discussed.

Self-esteem and sex offending

Although the links between self-esteem and sex offending are well documented, outstanding deficits remain about their generalisability to different sex offender populations. In the present study, data is presented on 690 offenders admitted to Grendon therapeutic prison on the Culture Free Self-Esteem Inventory (Battle, 1992). Self-esteem was found to be significantly lower than non-custodial norms for all types of offenders admitted to Grendon. However, as a group, sex offenders did not differ significantly from the Grendon norms suggesting that low self-esteem was a general characteristic of Grendon inmates rather than limited to sex offenders. The results also identified a difference between child molesters and rapists, with the former having lower personal self-esteem. Sex offenders who offended against males had lower self-esteem than those who offended against females. Sex offenders with a current conviction for child molestation had lower self esteem than those with only previous convictions for this offence. A low negative correlation was found between self-esteem and number of previous convictions but self-esteem was not significantly related to time in therapy, indicating that it has little value in predicting response to treatment in terms of length of stay in therapeutic communities.

Characteristics of Inmates Admitted to Grendon Therapeutic Prison and Their Relationships to Length of Stay

Data were collected on 1,053 men admitted to Grendon during the period 1984-1994 on age, number of previous convictions, the Ravens Progressive Matrices, the Hostility and Direction of Hostility Questionnaire, and the Eysenck Personality Questionnaire. A correlation matrix between the assessment variables and time at Grendon was produced and subjected to principal component analysis. Four typologies of Grendon inmates were identified: Component 1 is described as younger, extrapunitively hostile, tough minded, and neurotic, and it had a negative correlation with length of stay. Component 2 is described as intropunitively hostile, neurotic, and introverted; and Component 3 is described as bright, emotionally stable, and truthful. Components 2 and 3 were positively correlated with length of stay. Component 4 is described as older, emotionally stable, recidivist, and it had a negative correlation with length of stay. Correlations between all four components and length of stay were of a low order of magnitude but highly statistically significant.