Number Of Influenza Patients Research Articles

An Association of Influenza Epidemics in Children With Mobile App Data: Population-Based Observational Study in Osaka, Japan.

BackgroundEarly surveillance to prevent the spread of influenza is a major public health concern. If there is an association of influenza epidemics with mobile app data, it may be possible to forecast influenza earlier and more easily.ObjectiveWe aimed to assess the relationship between seasonal influenza and the frequency of mobile app use among children in Osaka Prefecture, Japan.MethodsThis was a retrospective observational study that was performed over a three-year period from January 2017 to December 2019. Using a linear regression model, we calculated the R2 value of the regression model to evaluate the relationship between the number of “fever” events selected in the mobile app and the number of influenza patients ≤14 years of age. We conducted three-fold cross-validation using data from two years as the training data set and the data of the remaining year as the test data set to evaluate the validity of the regression model. And we calculated Spearman correlation coefficients between the calculated number of influenza patients estimated using the regression model and the number of influenza patients, limited to the period from December to April when influenza is prevalent in Japan.ResultsWe included 29,392 mobile app users. The R2 value for the linear regression model was 0.944, and the adjusted R2 value was 0.915. The mean Spearman correlation coefficient for the three regression models was 0.804. During the influenza season (December–April), the Spearman correlation coefficient between the number of influenza patients and the calculated number estimated using the linear regression model was 0.946 (P<.001).ConclusionsIn this study, the number of times that mobile apps were used was positively associated with the number of influenza patients. In particular, there was a good association of the number of influenza patients with the number of “fever” events selected in the mobile app during the influenza epidemic season.

Influenza in patients with respiratory failure admitted to intensive care units in Poland and the use of extracorporeal respiratory support: a survey-based multicenter study

BackgroundIn Poland, little is known about the most serious cases of influenza that need admittance to the intensive care unit (ICU), as well as the use of extracorporeal respiratory support.MethodsThis was an electronic survey comprising ICUs in two administrative regions of Poland. The aim of the study was to determine the number of influenza patients with respiratory failure admitted to the ICU in the autumn–winter season of 2018/2019. Furthermore, respiratory support, outcome and other pathogens detected in the airways were investigated.ResultsInfluenza infection was confirmed in 76 patients. The A(H1N1)pdm09 strain was the most common. 34 patients died (44.7%). The median age was 62 years, the median sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score was 11 and was higher in patients who died (12 vs. 10, p = 0.017). Mechanical ventilation was used in 75 patients and high flow nasal oxygen therapy in 1 patient. Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) was used in 7 patients (6 survived), and extracorporeal carbon dioxide removal (ECCO2R) in 2 (1 survived). The prone position was used in 16 patients. In addition, other pathogens were detected in the airways on admittance to the ICU.ConclusionA substantial number of influenza infections occurred in the autumn–winter season of 2018/2019 that required costly treatment in the intensive care units. Upon admission to the ICU, influenza patients had a high degree of organ failure as assessed by the SOFA score, and the mortality rate was 44.7%. Advanced extracorporeal respiratory techniques offer real survival opportunities to patients with severe influenza-related ARDS. The presence of coinfection should be considered in patients with influenza and respiratory failure.

The relationship between seasonal influenza and telephone triage for fever: A population-based study in Osaka, Japan.

BackgroundReplacing traditional surveillance with syndromic surveillance is one of the major interests in public health. However, it is unclear whether the number of influenza patients is associated with the number of telephone triages in Japan.MethodsThis retrospective, observational study was conducted over the six-year period between January 2012 to December 2017. We used the dataset of a telephone triage service in Osaka, Japan and the data on influenza patients published from the Information Center of Infectious Disease in Osaka prefecture. Using a linear regression model, we calculated Spearman’s rank-order coefficient and R2 of the regression model to assess the relationship between the number of telephone triages for fever and the number of influenza patients in Osaka. Furthermore, we calculated Spearman’s rank-order coefficient and R2 between the predicted weekly number of influenza patients from the linear regression model and the actual weekly number of influenza patients for influenza outbreak season (December-April).ResultsThere were 465,971 patients with influenza, and the number of telephone triages for fever was 420,928 among 1,065,628 total telephone triages during the study period. Our analysis showed that the Spearman rank-order coefficient was 0.932, and R2 and adjusted R2 were 0.869 and 0.842, respectively. The Spearman rank-order coefficient was 0.923 (P<0.001) and R2 was 0.832 in December-April (P<0.001).ConclusionWe revealed a positive relationship in this population between the number of influenza patients and the number of telephone triages for fever.

Robust two-stage influenza prediction model considering regular and irregular trends.

Influenza causes numerous deaths worldwide every year. Predicting the number of influenza patients is an important task for medical institutions. Two types of data regarding influenza-like illnesses (ILIs) are often used for flu prediction: (1) historical data and (2) user generated content (UGC) data on the web such as search queries and tweets. Historical data have an advantage against the normal state but show disadvantages against irregular phenomena. In contrast, UGC data are advantageous for irregular phenomena. So far, no effective model providing the benefits of both types of data has been devised. This study proposes a novel model, designated the two-stage model, which combines both historical and UGC data. The basic idea is, first, basic regular trends are estimated using the historical data-based model, and then, irregular trends are predicted by the UGC data-based model. Our approach is practically useful because we can train models separately. Thus, if a UGC provider changes the service, our model could produce better performance because the first part of the model is still stable. Experiments on the US and Japan datasets demonstrated the basic feasibility of the proposed approach. In the dropout (pseudo-noise) test that assumes a UGC service would change, the proposed method also showed robustness against outliers. The proposed model is suitable for prediction of seasonal flu.

Economic consequences of Japanese schools\u2019 recovery certificate policy for seasonal influenza

BackgroundLike other countries, Japan experiences a seasonal influenza epidemic every year. In order to return to school after a influenza-related absence, most Japanese students are required to submit a recovery certificate (chiyu-shoumeisyo in Japanese). The objective of this study was to estimate the economic consequences of this practice.MethodsA cost analysis was conducted to estimate the additional costs incurred by the issuance of recovery certificates from a restricted societal perspective. The estimated number of influenza patients under 15 years old from the 2013/14 season to the 2017/18 season, the proportion of working mothers were used to calculate the estimated total number of recovery certificates issued per year. The cost of return visits to physicians and the cost for issuing certificates were included in the direct costs. Productivity loss was estimated using the mean monthly salary of women and was included in indirect costs.ResultsThe recovery certificate policy imposed an additional cost of 0.94 million USD per one million population. One-way deterministic sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the additional cost of the recovery certificate policy amounted to between 0.55 and 2.27 million USD per one million population. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed similar results.ConclusionsThe recovery certificate policy has a substantial negative economic impact on the Japanese healthcare system and society from a restricted societal perspective.

THE CLINICAL-EPIDEMIOLOGICAL CHARACTERISTIC OF THE FLU IN KRASNODAR TERRITORY IN 2016

Aim. Clinical and epidemiological characteristics of influenza in the Krasnodar Territory for 2016. Material and methods. The article uses the results of the monitoring of the circulation of influenza viruses from the Federal budgetary establishment of public health services Center for Hygiene and Epidemiology in the Krasnodar Territory in 2016, as well as the clinical features of influenza according to the reports of the Specialized Infectious Diseases Hospital of the Ministry of Health of the Krasnodar Territory for the same period. Results. It was demonstrated that prevalence in the circulation of the influenza strain in the Krasnodar Territory during the year 2016 was A (H1N1) pdm09, the content of which was 96.0%, less frequent influenza A (H3N2) – 2.0% and influenza B – 2.0% . Analysis of the intensity of influenza immunity showed a high percentage of seropositive persons against the influenza B virus (99%), a smaller proportion to the virus A (H3N2) – 40.0% and to the virus A (H1N1) pdm09 – 36%. The hospitalized incidence of influenza and its dynamics are estimated, the characteristics of the clinical course of influenza during the reporting period with details of complications, frequency and causes of deaths are given. Conclusion . The increase in the number of influenza patients who received inpatient treatment in 2016 as compared to 2015, the rarity of erroneous referral diagnoses, prevalence in the structure of patients with moderate disease, complications in the form of community-acquired pneumonia, which determined the death rate 1.1%, was underlined.

National cost estimation of maoto, a Kampo medicine, compared with oseltamivir for the treatment of influenza in Japan

Aim Millions of Japanese people suffer from influenza every year. Many of these patients are treated with neuraminidase inhibitors, particularly with oseltamivir. In traditional Japanese herbal medicine (Kampo medicine), maoto is effective against influenza; it can be administered to children and adolescents, and is much cheaper than oseltamivir or other neuraminidase inhibitors. We estimated the annual savings in medical costs (ASMC) at a national level when oseltamivir was partly replaced with maoto in influenza treatment. Methods We estimated the following variables: (i) number of influenza patients in a normal (non-pandemic) year in Japan; (ii) number of patients who would be prescribed oseltamivir; (iii) number of patients who could be prescribed maoto instead of oseltamivir; and (iv) medical cost reduction per patient when maoto extract is prescribed instead of oseltamivir. ASMC were calculated by multiplying (iii) and (iv). Results An approximate estimate of the ASMC was as high as 9 billion yen, given that an estimated 3 million patients were prescribed maoto rather than oseltamivir, with a medical cost reduction of 3000 yen per patient. Conclusion The direct medical cost reduction with maoto and the magnitude of ASMC were considerably large. Influenza treatment can be more efficient if maoto is introduced into practice.

Relationship between absolute humidity and influenza prevalence in Odate and Akita cities, Akita Prefecture, in 2001 and 2002

The dynamics of influenza viruses in relation to one meteorological factor, absolute humidity, was investigated. The number of influenza patients, absolute humidity, and isolation of influenza viruses were compared between Odate City the north and Akita City in central Akita Prefecture from 2001 to 2002. The results were as follows: 1) In both Odate and Akita cities, Influenza A (H1N1 and H3N2) and Influenza B (Victoria and Yamagata) viruses were isolated when absolute humidity ranged between 2.7 and 8.8 g/m3. 2) In Akita City in 2002, the influenza viruses were isolated in May (weeks 20 and 22), and the absolute humidity was below 9 g/m3, suggesting that the influenza season lasted until May in this year. 3) A correlation between absolute humidity and isolation of influenza viruses was observed, and the influenza prevalence may occur below 9 g/m3 of absolute humidity. 4) In Odate and Akita cities, the absolute humidity of 10 g/m3, a level at which 5% of influenza viruses can survive after six hours, was observed from January to June and October to December. 5) Influenza prevalence show differential occurrence by time and place. Therefore, further research is required to clarify the absolute humidity related to influenza prevalence.