Number Of Geese Research Articles

Investigation of goose breeding in Turkiye by linear and nonlinear regression models

In this study, the change in the number of geese breeding in Turkiye over the years was examined by linear and non-linear regression models. Among linear and non-linear regression models, linear, quadratic, cubic, logarithmic, and inverse regression models were used. R2 and MSE values were taken as criteria for comparing the models. As a result of the study, the cubic regression model with the highest R2 value and the lowest MSE value was found to be the best fitting model for the number of geese. According to the cubic regression model, the number of geese in Turkiye in 2023 and 2024 was estimated to be 1849304 and 2107588, respectively.

Reducing the number of grazing geese on agricultural fields - Effectiveness of different scaring techniques

Scaring is a widely used damage mitigation tool to make agricultural fields less attractive to wildlife and by that reduce crop damage. However, few experimental studies exist where the numerical response of different scaring devices has been compared. We tested experimentally the effect of three different scaring devices (kite, scarecrow, inflatable man) on the number of geese in fields with cereals, ley, rapeseed, potatoes, and carrots in Sweden. Geese were counted by camera traps and two approaches were used; in a first (model 1) only geese within 50–150m of the scaring devices were counted, and in a second (model 2) all geese in the field were included. A total of 42,281 geese were counted: Greylag goose Anser anser was the most common species (87%), followed by bean goose Anser fabalis (6%), greater white-fronted goose Anser albifrons (3%), barnacle goose Branta leucopsis (2%), and Canada goose Branta canadensis (2%). During scaring the number of geese significantly decreased for all three devices in model 2. The inflatable man decreased goose numbers by 90.0 %, scarecrow 64.6%, and kite 60.5%. A similar pattern was found in model 1, but the decrease was not significant. Our study shows that the scaring devices studied can reduce goose grazing pressure for some time and locally. However, since geese continue to graze during scaring, we conclude that scaring alone is not a final solution to mitigate crop damage. Future work to develop more effective control measures should address the efficiency of other management tools and scaring techniques in combination.

An explosive landscape: Arranging the barnacle goose on the Solway Firth

By the end of the Second World War, the Svalbard barnacle goose population had dwindled to a couple of hundred birds. Flying in from the Arctic to spend the winters on the Solway Firth (the estuary that separates England from Scotland), they were a favourite target of wildfowlers in the area. Since then, a ban on shooting and the Solway goose management scheme that pays farmers to maintain a goose friendly habitat has seen the barnacle goose numbers increase. Today, an uneasy truce has formed between conservationists, farmers and wildfowlers who have different and often conflicting interests in the goose. Adding to that is the Solway's rich military history: once host to huge munitions factories during the First and Second World Wars, this now derelict military infrastructure curates the tidal landscape through awkward access zones, barbed wire fences and secretive burial sites. In this article I argue that the military infrastructure of the Solway, particularly that of the explosive propellants produced in the factories, have left resonances that not only inflect the land itself, but also the trajectory of the barnacle goose. Explosive propellants are used in different ways by the goose's stakeholders: cannon nets by conservationists, bird bangers by farmers, and explosive shot by wildfowlers. Yet this is a dynamic situation that must account for goose agencies and complex entanglements of human, nonhuman, and technology: an explosive landscape that arranges goose life along the flyway.

Complete seasonal surveillance of Greylag Goose (Anser anser) foraging behavior on dairy grassland and the effect of limited lethal scaring

In northern Norway, an increasing population of Greylag Geese (Anser anser) forages considerably on dairy grassland and can eat up to 60% of the grass (dry matter mass) on a field if allowed to eat undisturbed throughout the growing season. In this study, the seasonal foraging behavior of Greylag Geese on diary grassland was continuously monitored with game cameras from late April to the end of August to be able to pinpoint effective preventive measures to manage, control, and prevent this crop damage. Limited, but regular, lethal scaring was conducted on some fields to reveal the preventive effect of this measure. Foraging from Greylag Geese in a rangeland area was also monitored, and a complete dataset of seasonal foraging behavior of this species is presented here. Greylag Geese foraging on the fields reaches a top between 04:00 and 08:00 h am, all season. Energy and digestibility of the field grass (timothy) did not reveal any correlation with grazing patterns. Greylag Geese do not visit the fields during molting; however, they may visit fields with their chicks to forage. Lethal scaring completely removes visits from Greylag Geese on the fields where this is conducted, while foraging continues if geese are given undisturbed access. In the rangeland area foraging seems to be even and continuous throughout the season, but significantly lower. In the end of June and late July/early August, there is a peak in visits and number of geese per visit on the fields. Preventive and effective measures against crop damage from Greylag Geese must therefore at least be initiated during late June and early August, and between 04:00 and 08:00 am.

Survival estimates and hunter outreach are priorities for the collaborative harvest management of Emperor Goose in Alaska

Abstract Emperor Goose (Anser canagicus) harvest in Alaska was re-opened in 2017 after a 30-year closure, but goose numbers available for a sustainable harvest remain limited. We used a Delphi process, an iterative group communication technique, to elicit expert opinion across 3 successive survey rounds to identify priorities for research, harvest management, and conservation of Emperor Goose. We identified 115 potential participants representing research and management by federal and state agencies, universities, Alaska Native representation in management, and non-governmental conservation organizations. Seventy participants responded to the first survey round (response rate = 61%). We compared responses between 4 participant groups to identify diverse perspectives. All groups, except Native Management, rated the impacts of spring–summer hunting on the Emperor Goose population more highly than impacts of fall–winter hunting. In round 1, the top-rated information and research priorities focused on harvest assessment. In the following rounds, refining survival estimates and population survey methods for Emperor Goose emerged as the two top-ranked research priorities. Improving education and outreach for hunters was the top-ranked conservation and harvest management priority. Formally identifying areas of agreement and disagreement among stakeholders is key for collaborative management, especially with contentious topics, although this step is often overlooked. The Delphi process allowed us to broaden perspectives by including individuals beyond the core entities involved with Emperor Goose management. Because stakeholder groups and individuals may provide input in diverse ways and at differing rates, ensuring that management processes have complementary paths for participation and decision-making helps safeguard against the shortcomings of individual processes. This study will inform ongoing discussions in the context of the revision of the Emperor Goose management plans led by committees within the Alaska Migratory Bird Co-Management Council and the Pacific Flyway Council.

Field selection of greylag geese (Anser anser)

Greylag geese (Anser anser) have been increasing in numbers in Europe during the last decades. They forage and roost in agricultural landscapes and may cause damage to sensitive crops. We studied field selection of greylag geese around lake Sörfjärden in south central Sweden where geese aggregate during the growing season. In this area a set-aside field was established in 2010, i.e., a field where geese can graze undisturbed, with the aim to reduce damage in surrounding conventional fields. The goal of our study was to investigate the general selection of the different field types as well as the specific set-aside field. We used a point survey count to estimate goose numbers and regression analyses to evaluate the relationship between presence or absence of greylag geese and field characteristics such as crop type, distance to roost site and field size. According to the top-ranked model, the probability of presence of foraging greylag geese was higher in spring and in grass fields, while the probability decreased with distance to roost site. Our results also show that the set-aside field in general was used more than other fields in the area during spring and summer but not during autumn. We conclude that it is important to consider variables affecting the probability of field selection by geese, such as season, crop type and distance to roosts to understand the behaviour of geese when establishing set-aside fields.

Present Conservation Status and Carcass and Meat Characteristics of Lithuanian Vištinės Goose Breed.

Simple SummaryGoose meat is known as a meat with specific aroma and flavour traits compared to other meats from poultry and other animal species. Despite a low goose meat share in meat production and consumption, a large number of different goose breeds and varieties are known. However, most of them are rare and endangered. As goose breeding is not profitable, the specificity of goose products should be evaluated and highlighted. The aim of this study was to identify the status of the conserved Lithuanian Vištinės goose breed and evaluate goose carcass and meat characteristics in the breast and thigh depending on the sex. Monitoring of geese included in the breeding system has enabled us to evaluate the changes in population size and conservation status, which remains critical maintained. The sex appeared to affect the carcass composition but did not show the effect on meat properties, whereas the muscle type had an effect on the parameters of meat and lipid quality. Thigh muscles showed more favourable lipid indices in relation to healthy nutrition of consumers in comparison to the breast.The aim of the present study was to identify the conservation status of Lithuanian local Vištinės goose breed and evaluate the carcass and meat quality characteristics in the breast and thigh depending on the sex. The status of the Lithuanian Vištinės goose breed was evaluated by monitoring of the birds, which are included in the breeding system. Twenty geese from the nucleus flock at the age of 10 weeks and reared using a commercial concentrate diet ad libitum were used for the carcass and meat quality evaluation. Due to fluctuations in the numbers of geese and reproduction of purebred birds on a largest scale from the nucleus flock, the status of Vištinės goose population remains critical-maintained. The difference in the live body weight between males and females was insignificant, whereas males showed higher carcass weight (p < 0.05), including the weight of breast, wings, thighs and neck. The sex did not affect the meat quality parameters, but the anatomical location of muscles has appeared to show a high effect. Thigh muscles had lower (p < 0.01 and p < 0.001, respectively) protein and cholesterol, and higher (p < 0.001) intramuscular fat contents compared with the breast. Thigh muscles also showed higher (p < 0.001 and p < 0.01, respectively) pH and EZ drip loss, but lower (p < 0.001) cooking loss compared with the breast. The breast was characterized by a higher (p < 0.001) shear of force and toughness with Warner–Bratzler test and higher (p < 0.001) hardness detected by texture profile analysis (TPA) compared with the thigh. Breast lipids had higher (p < 0.001) proportion of total saturated and polyunsaturated fatty acids, whereas the thigh was characterized by a higher proportion of monounsaturated fatty acids. Atherogenic (AI) and thrombogenic (TI) indexes were higher (p < 0.001) and hypocholesterolemic/hypercholesterolemic (h/H) ratio was lower (p < 0.001) and less favourable in the breast compared with the thigh. Despite the muscle type differences, goose meat of the local conserved breed exhibited good quality and expected enhancing impact on consumer health.

Dependencies in the development of poultry farming in some Balkan countries

Information concerning poultry farming (chickens, ducks, geese and guinea fowls) is the object of study in the current paper. It has been extracted from the website of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. The obtained data about the four Balkan countries (Bulgaria, Greece, Romania and Albania) have been saved in a separate Excel file. Subsequently, they have been processed and evaluated. The surveyed period includes 58-year time interval from 1961 to 2018. The article presents the dependencies in the development of poultry farming in the listed countries for the indicated period. A comparative analysis and an analysis of variance have been applied to the considered data. The examined information has also been summarized and presented mainly in graphical form. The results of the analysis showed the relevant time intervals in which a continuous growth, as well as a significant decline of the studied indicators (number of chickens, number of ducks, number of geese and guinea fowls) was established for each of these four Balkan countries. The statistical assessment of the number of chickens in the examined countries formed three groups with statistically significant differences. Data for Albania were excluded from the evaluation of the other two indicators because the provided information about them was for the period from 1994 to 2011.

Population control by means of organised hunting effort: Experiences from a voluntary goose hunting arrangement

Implementing management objectives may be challenging when decisions are made at different scales than where they are supposed to be carried out. In this study we present a situation where local goose hunting arrangements respond to objectives in an international management plan for pink-footed geese (Anser brachyrhynchus) and a local wish to reduce goose numbers as means to reduce grazing damage on farmland. A unique ten-year dataset provides an evaluation of the efficiency of voluntary actions at a local scale for implementing a policy of population control of geese, and general lessons are drawn for collaboration and co-production of knowledge for adaptive management. The study demonstrates how both the hunters and geese adapt in a situation where increasing the harvest of geese is the main objective. Introducing hunting-free days and safe foraging areas significantly increased goose numbers in the study area, with a corresponding increase in hunting success in terms of number of harvested geese. The geese’s behavioural response to hunting also triggered the hunters to adapt accordingly by optimal timing and placement in the landscape. Based on the results of the present study we suggest a framework for local implementation of management actions. Bringing end-users on board, facilitates processes and strengthens the achievements, as they represent the actors where implementation occurs. Specifically, our findings demonstrate how optimal goose hunting can be practiced by the use of an adaptive framework with active stakeholder participation.

Seeking greener pastures: crop selection by Greylag Geese (Anser anser) during the moulting season

Over the last 40 years, many goose populations have recovered from historic lows and are now more numerous than ever. At the same time, geese have shifted from natural foraging habitats to securing most of their nutritional demands from agricultural fields, leading to crop damage and conflict with agriculture. We studied field use by Greylag Geese (Anser anser) in the agricultural landscape surrounding a main breeding and moulting lake in Sweden. From 2012 to 2016, weekly roadside surveys were conducted from May to July. Data were collected on goose numbers, crop type and sward height in agricultural fields. Using a compositional analysis, we demonstrate that Greylag Geese show a strong selection for ley and pasture fields compared to other crop types (rank order: ley/pasture &gt; oat &gt; barley &gt; wheat &gt; other crops). This selection was consistent across years and between pre- and post-moult. Aside from ley and pasture, no other crop types were selected for, as they were used less than expected given their availability. Irrespective of crop type, geese foraged predominantly on short (0–10 cm) swards. The strong selection for ley and pasture may have been driven by higher nutritional quality of short, managed grass swards relative to other available foods. This suggests that during the summer grass fields may be more vulnerable to damage compared to other crop types. Our study provides a deeper understanding of the ecology of Greylag Geese, which may be used to inform management strategies focused on mitigating crop damage and alleviating conflict.

Experimental evidence for conservation conflict interventions: The importance of financial payments, community trust and equity attitudes

Abstract Conflicts between the objectives of agricultural production and conservation are becoming increasingly complex. Of vital importance to the success of conflict interventions is a detailed understanding of how stakeholders react to management interventions as well as the influence of interacting social and political factors. Across Europe, goose populations have increased considerably, leading to widespread impacts on agriculture and significant conflicts between different stakeholder groups. We used a novel experimental game to understand farmer preferences regarding the design of goose conflict interventions in Scotland. We specifically examined how three alternative interventions (government financial support for scaring activities, subsidies and agglomeration payments that include bonus payments for adoption by neighbouring farms) affect farmer propensity to support goose conservation interests through reduced shooting and the provision of sacrificial crops. We also examined the links between within‐game behaviour and real‐life attributes and attitudes of farmers. We found that all three interventions were conducive to pro‐conservation behaviour in the games. The effects of all three interventions were stronger among farmers who had higher trust towards other community members. Agglomeration payments led to increased provision of sacrificial crops among farmers with negative attitudes towards the current allocation of goose finances in Scotland. Farmers with more positive attitudes towards wildlife tourism were more likely to provide more sacrificial crops, and less likely to shoot in the games. Farmers' real‐life traits had a statistically significant but marginal impact on the effectiveness of financial payments, such as the number of geese being shot on their own lands, remoteness and crop damage by geese. These game results provide evidence for the potential of innovative financial instruments in conflict management and their interactions with social factors such as community trust, equity attitude and real‐life shooting levels. Our study highlights the importance of socio‐political elements in fostering mutually beneficial outcomes in conservation conflicts in addition to addressing material losses to wildlife. We also show how games can help in addressing conservation conflicts in a wide range of settings. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article.

The results of spring monitoring on the status of geese populations in 2011–2018 in the North Kazakhstan Region

Abstract The article presents the results of monitoring studies on the population dynamics of goose species at one of the largest stopover sites in Northern Kazakhstan during the springs of 2011–2018. Comparative analysis of the phenological phases at the beginning and end of migration over a 50-year period is conducted and changes in timing of migration for the studied groups are established. Data on the number of flocks at various stages of the migration process are presented. Authors revealed characteristics of the distribution of birds in the directions of migration through the region associated with the presence of various migration strategies. Based on the distribution and number of geese in the region for rest and feeding, key zones with characteristics of their natural and anthropogenic state were identified. It has been established that water bodies and large areas have optimal conditions for rest and replenishment of energy reserves for the birds.

The public and geese: a conflict on the rise?

ABSTRACT Wild geese are increasing in agricultural and urban settings across Europe, leading to widespread human – geese interactions. This study examined how the public’s acceptance of geese (attitude and acceptance capacity) varied depending on place dimensions, interactions with geese in different settings (place-based experience), and psychological factors, including wildlife value orientations, beliefs about the ecosystem services and disservices geese provide, and emotions. A survey was conducted in two municipalities with large goose populations in Sweden; Kristianstad and Örebro (n = 898). Results revealed a favorable view of the occurrence of geese, although a substantial share believed the number of geese was too high. Place-based experiences of geese were correlated with acceptance (e.g., more experience on beaches was associated with a negative attitude) and the importance of psychological factors for acceptance was confirmed. The study highlights the need to consider the public’s experiences of geese for sustainable goose management.

Технологія вирощування гусенят на м’ясо

Goal. To study selection and tech­no­logical measures to improve fattening and meat qualities of Obroshyn grey and white geese, to improve the technology of growing geese for meat to 9 weeks of age. Methods. The basic method of selection and technological work was selecting and matching individuals with high productive properties, with the aim of obtaining the same type of bird that corresponds to the predetermined parameters of productivity. From the number of geese they formed 4 groups with 50 birds in each. Feeding was carried out with complete feed mixtures. Birds were kept in equipped poultry houses, which took into account territorial characteristics and needs of each bird for space. Results. Goslings for meat were grown in 2 periods: the 1st — preparatory (brooder), lasting from daily to 20-day age, taking into account the weather conditions and time of year, and the 2nd (growing) — from 21 to 65–75 days. They studied the growth and development of young geese and meat quality. The productivity of geese of Obroshyn white breed group (group I) was characterized by the following indicators of productivity: the live weight of geese at 9 weeks of age — males — 3,90 kg, females — 3,59 kg; survival rate — 92%. Crossbred geese Ob x Legart (group II) had higher performance: the live weight of geese at 9 weeks of age: males — on 18.2%, females — on 15.9%, the survival rate was below on 0.2%. Geese of Obroshyn grey breed group (group III) was characterized by the following indicators of productivity: the live weight of geese at 9 weeks of age: males — 4,05 kg, females — 3,67 kg; survival rate — 87%. Crossbred geese OS x VS (group IV) respectively were characterized by a higher live weight of geese at 9 weeks of age: males — on 6.7%, females — on 4.6%; survival rate — on 2%. According to the results of slaughter, it was determined that the crossbred geese (groups II and IV) surpassed coevals in live weight before slaughter, in weight of viscerateb carcass, in weight and edible parts of the body. Conclusions. Owing to the selection and technological work productivity of geese in compliance with growing technology, the relevant standards of temperature and feeding with complete feed mixtures can be increased by 10–12%.

Young Birds Switch but Old Birds Lead: How Barnacle Geese Adjust Migratory Habits to Environmental Change

Long-distance migratory animals must contend with global climate change, but they differ greatly in whether and how they adjust. Species that socially learn their migration routes may have an advantage in this process compared to other species, as learned changes that are passed on to the next generation can speed up adjustment. However, evidence from the wild that social learning helps migrants adjust to environmental change is absent. Here, we study the behavioural processes by which barnacle geese (Branta leucopsis) adjust spring-staging site choice along the Norwegian coast, which appears to be a response to climate change and population growth. We compared individual-based models to an empirical description of geese colonizing a new staging site in the 1990s. The data included 43 years of estimated annual food conditions and goose numbers at both staging sites (1975–2017), as well as annual age-dependent switching events between the two staging sites from one year to the next (2000–2017). Using Approximate Bayesian Computation, we assessed the relative likelihood of models with different ‘decision rules’, which define how individuals choose a staging site. In the best performing model, individuals travelled in groups and staging site choice was made by the oldest group member. Groups normally returned to the same staging site each year, but exhibited a higher probability of switching staging site in years with larger numbers of geese at the staging site. The decision did not depend on food availability in the current year. Switching rates between staging sites decreased with age, which was best explained by a higher probability of switching between groups by younger geese, and not by young geese being more responsive to current conditions. We found no evidence that the experienced foraging conditions in previous years affected staging site choice. Our findings demonstrate that copying behaviour and density-dependent group decisions explain how geese adjust their migratory habits rapidly in response to changes in food availability and competition. We conclude that considering social processes can be essential to understand how migratory animals respond to changing environments.

Northward range expansion in spring-staging barnacle geese is a response to climate change and population growth, mediated by individual experience.

All long-distance migrants must cope with changing environments, but species differ greatly in how they do so. In some species, individuals might be able to adjust by learning from individual experiences and by copying others. This could greatly speed up the process of adjustment, but evidence from the wild is scarce. Here, we investigated the processes by which a rapidly growing population of barnacle geese (Branta leucopsis) responded to strong environmental changes on spring-staging areas in Norway. One area, Helgeland, has been the traditional site. Since the mid-1990s, an increasing number of geese stage in another area 250km further north, Vesterålen. We collected data on goose numbers and weather conditions from 1975 to 2017 to explore the extent to which the increase in population size and a warmer climate contributed to this change in staging area use. During the study period, the estimated onset of grass growth advanced on average by 0.54days/year in each of the two areas. The total production of digestible biomass for barnacle geese during the staging period increased in Vesterålen but remained stable in Helgeland. The goose population has doubled in size during the past 25years, with most of the growth being accommodated in Vesterålen. The observations suggest that this dramatic increase would not have happened without higher temperatures in Vesterålen. Records of individually marked geese indicate that from the initial years of colonization onwards, especially young geese tended to switch to Vesterålen, thereby predominating in the flocks at Vesterålen. Older birds had a lower probability of switching to Vesterålen, but over the years, the probability increased for all ages. Our findings suggest that barnacle geese integrate socially learned behaviour with adjustments to individual experiences, allowing the population to respond rapidly and accurately to global change.

High Grazing Pressure of Geese Threatens Conservation and Restoration of Reed Belts.

Reed (Phragmites australis (Cav.) Trin. ex Steud.) beds are important habitat for marsh birds, but are declining throughout Europe. Increasing numbers of the native marsh bird, the Greylag goose (Anser anser L.), are hypothesized to cause reed bed decline and inhibit restoration of reed beds, but data are largely lacking. In this study, we experimentally tested the effect of grazing by Greylag geese on the growth and expansion of reed growing in belts along lake shorelines. After 5 years of protecting reed from grazing with exclosures, reed stems were over 4-fold denser and taller than in the grazed plots. Grazing pressure was intense with 50–100% of the stems being grazed among years in the control plots open to grazing. After 5 years of protection we opened half of the exclosures and the geese immediately grazed almost 100% of the reed stems. Whereas this did not affect the reed stem density, the stem height was strongly reduced and similar to permanently grazed reed. The next year geese were actively chased away by management from mid-March to mid-June, which changed the maximum amount of geese from over 2300 to less than 50. As a result, reed stem density and height increased and the reed belt had recovered over the full 6 m length of the experimental plots. Lastly, we introduced reed plants in an adjacent lake where no reed was growing and geese did visit this area. After two years, the density of the planted reed was six to nine-fold higher and significantly taller in exclosures compared to control plots where geese had access to the reed plants. We conclude that there is a conservation dilemma regarding how to preserve and restore reed belts in the presence of high densities of Greylag geese as conservation of both reed belts and high goose numbers seems infeasible. We suggest that there are three possible solutions for this dilemma: (1) effects of the geese can be mediated by goose population management, (2) the robustness of the reed marshes can be increased, and (3) at the landscape level, spatial planning can be used to configure landscapes with large reed bed reserves surrounded by unmown, unfertilized meadows.

Winter Population Size Estimations of Three Migratory Sheldgeese in the Southern Pampas, Argentina

Sheldgeese [Upland Goose (Chloephaga picta picta), Ashy-headed Goose (C. poliocephala) and Ruddyheaded Goose (C. rubidiceps)] have similar migratory patterns, breeding in Patagonia (Argentina and Chile) and wintering mainly in the southern Pampas, Argentina. All of them are species of conservation concern in Argentina. The objective of this study was to estimate species densities using distance sampling and to calculate population sizes over three categories of habitat quality in the southeast of Buenos Aires Province, Argentina. Road surveys (9,200 km) were performed from a vehicle during two consecutive wintering seasons (13 June to 6 July 2011 and 9 June to 4 July 2012). Predicted probabilities of sheldgeese occurrence were divided into three classes of habitat quality. Upland Goose mean density was estimated at 3.72 individuals/km2, Ashy-headed Goose at 1.62 individuals/km2 and Ruddy-headed Goose at 0.04 individuals/km2. Consequently, Upland Goose numbers were estimated at 348,255 individuals, Ashy-headed Goose at 151,803 individuals and Ruddy-headed Goose at 498 individuals in the southeast of Buenos Aires Province. The results confirm former studies regarding the small population sizes of these species in comparison with historic data and suggest a decline in sheldgeese populations.

The changing environment of conservation conflict: Geese and farming in Scotland

Abstract Conflict between conservation objectives and human livelihoods is ubiquitous and can be highly damaging, but the processes generating it are poorly understood. Ecological elements are central to conservation conflict, and changes in their dynamics — for instance due to anthropogenic environmental change — are likely to influence the emergence of serious human–wildlife impacts and, consequently, social conflict. We used mixed‐effects models to examine the drivers of historic spatio‐temporal dynamics in numbers of Greenland barnacle geese (Branta leucopsis) on the Scottish island of Islay to identify the ecological processes that have shaped the environment in which conflict between goose conservation and agriculture has been triggered. Barnacle goose numbers on Islay increased from 20,000 to 43,000 between 1987 and 2016. Over the same period, the area of improved grassland increased, the number of sheep decreased and the climate warmed. Goose population growth was strongly linked to the increasing area of improved grassland, which provided geese with more high quality forage. Changing climatic conditions, particularly warming temperatures on Islay and breeding grounds in Greenland, have also boosted goose numbers. As the goose population has grown, farms have supported geese more frequently and in larger numbers, with subsequent damaging effects on grassland. The creation of high‐quality grassland appears to have largely driven the problem of serious economic damage by geese. Our analysis also reveals the drivers of spatial variation in goose impacts: geese were more likely to occur on farms closer to roosts and those with more improved grassland. However, as geese numbers have increased they have spread to previously less favoured farms. Synthesis and applications. Our study demonstrates the primary role of habitat modification in the emergence of conflict between goose conservation and agriculture, alongside a secondary role of climate change. Our research illustrates the value of exploring socio‐ecological history to understand the processes leading to conservation conflict. In doing so, we identify those elements that are more controllable, such as local habitat management, and less controllable, such as climate change, but which both need to be taken into account when managing conservation conflict.

Seasonal habitats, decadal trends in abundance and cultural values of magpie geese (Anseranus semipalmata) on coastal floodplains in the Kakadu Region, northern Australia

The magpie goose is an iconic tropical species highly valued as a conservation asset and by Aboriginal people as a cultural resource. Most of the global population occurs in the Kakadu Region of northern Australia, which is at high risk from the combined impacts of invasive species and future sea-level rise. Future management responses require an increased understanding of their spatial and temporal dynamics and customary value. Historical aerial-survey data of geese and their nests in the Kakadu Region (1981–2006, 25 years) were used to characterise seasonal use of floodplains. Habitat ‘hotspots’ co-occurred with high abundance of plants that provide nesting material in the wet season and food in the dry season, particularly the bulbs of Eleocharis dulcis sedge. Goose numbers across the Northern Territory (1958–2000, n=42 years) exhibited 20-year decadal trends coupled with similar trends in rainfall and stream flow (1954–2006), which in turn were influenced strongly by global-scale interactions between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Stream flow drives the spatial and temporal dynamics of magpie geese at regional and decadal scales through its direct influence on floodplain-vegetation dynamics. Customary harvesting practices of geese and their eggs ascertained from interviews (2011–2014) showed that their cultural value extends beyond consumption, highlighting the need to address socio-ecological contexts in future management responses.