Number Of Future People Research Articles

The Sum of Averages: An Egyptology-Proof Average View

AbstractContemporary population ethics is dominated by views that aggregate by summing, whether of well-being or of some construct based on well-being. In contrast, average well-being is generally considered axiologically irrelevant. To many of us, however, the number of future people does not seem important, as long as it is sufficient to enable rich and varied life experiences, and as long as the population continues throughout time. It therefore seems relatively plausible to aggregate future well-being by averaging. In particular, it seems plausible to value high average well-being at any particular time, and to do so for all future times. I present a time-sensitive version of the Average View that underpins such axiological intuitions. I also address a series of issues and objections that confront such a view.

Why the Non-Identity Problem Does Not Undermine our Obligations to the Future under Real-World Conditions

When Derek Parfit in Reasons and Persons, examined whether the Non-Identity Problem could be solved with the Impersonal Total Principle, he assumed perfect equality in the future population outcomes under his consideration. His thinking was that this assumption could not distort his reasoning, but would make it more simple and clear. He then reasoned that the best future population outcome, according to the Impersonal Total Principle, would be an enormous population, whose members have lives only barely worth living, as a slight lowering in quality of life, according to the principle, can always be more than compensated for by an increase in the number of future people. He found this result impossible to believe and dubbed it the Repugnant Conclusion, concluding that his attempts had ended in failures and that the Non-Identity Problem continues to undermine our beliefs of our obligations to the future. The purpose of this paper is to examine the implications of the Impersonal Total Principle in real-world circumstances where the inevitability of inequality is taken into account. What, if anything, will this imply regarding the Repugnant Conclusion, the indirect version of the Non-Identity Problem and our abilities to ground our moral responsibilities to posterity in an ethical theory?

Should there be future people? A fundamental question for climate change and intergenerational justice

The effects of climate change will be felt far into the future, long after currently living people have stopped existing. A popular way of understanding what this means ethically is to conceptualize the issue in terms of intergenerational justice: currently living people have duties of justice toward future generations to not wrongfully harm them, or duties to reduce the risk of violating the rights future people will have when they exist. In this article I show that this depends on assumptions about the existence, identity, and number of future people. I argue for the relevance and importance of ethically investigating these assumptions; in particular of asking: should humanity continue to exist? I argue that this ethical investigation is necessary to properly and fully understand the ethical challenges that climate change creates. WIREs Clim Change 2017, 8:e453. doi: 10.1002/wcc.453This article is categorized under: Climate, Nature, and Ethics > Climate Change and Human Rights

Targeting mid-life risk factors to reduce late-life dementia

Population studies on the burden of chronic diseases generally show an increased prevalence with increasing age, and the number of people with chronic diseases with population ageing is usually estimated from crosssectional prevalence studies and in general is presented as an increased societal burden. The burden of dementia is a good example. Relatively few studies use a more accurate projection of future disease burden by examining trends in incidence and case fatality. The greatest burden results if there is a rising trend in incidence accompanied by trends in decreasing fatality rates. Furthermore few studies to date have related late-life chronic disease burden with trends in mid-life risk factors. One disease of great concern is dementia. Mathews et al. reported a fall in dementia prevalence for those aged 65 and over in England for two cohorts separated by two decades, showing that future numbers of people with dementia is likely to be less than estimates. This was calculated using prevalence for one cohort and multiplying by the projected number of people in a particular age group. The accompanying editorial rightly points out that ‘we can make a difference’, possibly by modifying mid-life risk factors for Alzheimer's Disease. It is surprising that the preventable aspect of the disease has received relatively little attention,

Alzheimer disease in the United States (2010-2050) estimated using the 2010 census.

To provide updated estimates of Alzheimer disease (AD) dementia prevalence in the United States from 2010 through 2050. Probabilities of AD dementia incidence were calculated from a longitudinal, population-based study including substantial numbers of both black and white participants. Incidence probabilities for single year of age, race, and level of education were calculated using weighted logistic regression and AD dementia diagnosis from 2,577 detailed clinical evaluations of 1,913 people obtained from stratified random samples of previously disease-free individuals in a population of 10,800. These were combined with US mortality, education, and new US Census Bureau estimates of current and future population to estimate current and future numbers of people with AD dementia in the United States. We estimated that in 2010, there were 4.7 million individuals aged 65 years or older with AD dementia (95% confidence interval [CI] = 4.0-5.5). Of these, 0.7 million (95% CI = 0.4-0.9) were between 65 and 74 years, 2.3 million were between 75 and 84 years (95% CI = 1.7-2.9), and 1.8 million were 85 years or older (95% CI = 1.4-2.2). The total number of people with AD dementia in 2050 is projected to be 13.8 million, with 7.0 million aged 85 years or older. The number of people in the United States with AD dementia will increase dramatically in the next 40 years unless preventive measures are developed.

Type 2 Diabetes: An Epidemic Requiring Global Attention and Urgent Action

Decades ago, the global epidemic of type 2 diabetes was predicted by epidemiologists who observed large and rapid increases in the prevalence of type 2 diabetes among indigenous peoples who adopted Western lifestyles (1–4). Subsequent epidemiological studies demonstrated that essentially all non-Europid populations who escape the ravages of communicable diseases, enjoy abundant food and less physically demanding lifestyles and survive to middle and old age are at increased risk for type 2 diabetes, its complications, and comorbidities. The global epidemic of type 2 diabetes has been documented in a series of progressively more precise, refined, and sobering projections (5). In 1993, King et al. (6) assembled estimates of the prevalence of diabetes for adults around the world. In 1997, Amos et al. (7) first used age-specific prevalence rates for type 2 diabetes from different countries and current and projected age distributions of the world population to estimate the present and future numbers of people with diabetes worldwide. Using similar methods but incorporating additional age- and sex-specific and rural- and urban-specific diabetes prevalence rates, King et al. (8), Wild et al. (9), and Shaw et al. (10) repeated these analyses. In general, these studies projected that the number of adults with diabetes in the world will more than double between 2000 and 2030, with most of the increase occurring in developing countries, particularly in Asia. Not surprisingly, countries with the largest populations have and will have the greatest number of individuals with diabetes. Accordingly, India and China top the lists. The most recent studies have projected that by 2030, India will have 79–87 million and China 42–63 million adults with diabetes (9,10). The latter projection did not account for the rapid change in lifestyle occurring in China and …