Abstract Introduction: Previous studies have demonstrated a role for assessing circulating tumor cells (CTC) in melanoma, but significant heterogeneity among studies has limited application in the clinical setting. We sought to evaluate the prognostic value of CTCs in advanced stage melanoma using a standardized CTC enumeration platform. Methods: A PubMed literature search was conducted up to March 2024. All studies evaluating CTC enumeration using CellSearchTM with outcomes data were included. Student's t-test was used to compare differences between groups. Hazard ratios (HR) were pooled using random effects model to assess the association of CTCs with overall survival (OS). I 2 statistic and Cochran’s Q test, sensitivity analyses, and Egger’s test of asymmetry were used to assess study heterogeneity, differential impact of individual studies, and publication bias, respectively. Results: Of the 12 studies identified, nine met inclusion criteria. A total of 678 patients were included, of which 337 (49.6%) were stage III and 342 (50.4%) were stage IV. The majority of studies reported CTC rates using a cut-off of ≥ 1 (6 studies, 66.7%), while three studies used ≥ 2 and five studies used both. Median follow-up time was available for six studies and ranged from 5.9-48 months (median 13.4). Average CTC detection rate (≥ 1 or 2) was 41% (SD 14.0) and was significantly higher using a cut-off of ≥ 1 (45.4%, SD 12.6) compared to ≥ 2 (26.1%, SD 2.7, p = 0.02). Pooled analysis of two studies demonstrated significantly worse OS with CTC ≥ 1 (HR 1.6, 95% CI: 1.0-2.6, p = 0.04). Similarly, pooled analysis of five studies with available HRs demonstrated significantly worse OS with CTC ≥ 2 (HR 2.1, 95% CI: 1.4-3.1, p = 0.0003). Among these five studies, moderate heterogeneity was observed (I2 = 43.4%), although this was not statistically significant (Q statistic p = 0.13). Sensitivity analyses confirmed the prognostic value of CTC ≥ 2, with pooled HRs ranging from 1.9-2.4 after consecutive omission of each study from the overall analysis. Conclusion: Regardless of the CTC cutoff used (≥ 1 or 2), presence of any CTCs was a strong prognostic marker in patients with advanced stage melanoma. Incorporation of CTC assessments in clinical practice may help risk stratify patients and guide treatment decisions. Further studies are needed to determine the optimal cut-off point for CTC status in assessing prognosis. Citation Format: Jennifer H. Chen, Hyunsoo Hwang, Bamboo Dong, Vanessa N. Sarli, Joshua R. Upshaw, Salyna Meas, Anthony Lucci. Prognostic value of circulating tumor cells in stage III and IV melanoma: A systematic review and meta-analysis [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the AACR Special Conference: Liquid Biopsy: From Discovery to Clinical Implementation; 2024 Nov 13-16; San Diego, CA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Clin Cancer Res 2024;30(21_Suppl):Abstract nr B010.
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