Null Hypothesis Of Cointegration Research Articles

Residual-based cointegration and non-cointegration tests for cointegrating polynomial regressions

Cointegrating polynomial regressions (CPRs), i.e., regressions that include deterministic terms, integrated processes and powers of integrated processes as explanatory variables and stationary errors, have become prominent in several fields of applications, e.g., in the analysis of environmental Kuznets curves. A key issue, as always in cointegration analysis, is testing for the presence or absence of a cointegrating relationship. This paper discusses two complementary tests: one with the null hypothesis of cointegration and one with the null hypothesis of the absence of cointegration. It is shown that (inter alia) for the empirically most relevant case, in which only one of the integrated regressors occurs as regressor also with higher powers, critical values can be simulated and are provided for a variety of specifications. Finally, the usage of the tests is illustrated for the environmental Kuznets curve for carbon and sulfur dioxide emissions. The illustration also investigates the sensitivity of the test decisions with respect to kernel and bandwidth choices, sample size and data vintage.

The probabilities of type I and II error of null of cointegration tests: A Monte Carlo comparison.

This paper evaluates the performance of eight tests with null hypothesis of cointegration on basis of probabilities of type I and II errors using Monte Carlo simulations. This study uses a variety of 132 different data generations covering three cases of deterministic part and four sample sizes. The three cases of deterministic part considered are: absence of both intercept and linear time trend, presence of only the intercept and presence of both the intercept and linear time trend. It is found that all of tests have either larger or smaller probabilities of type I error and concluded that tests face either problems of over rejection or under rejection, when asymptotic critical values are used. It is also concluded that use of simulated critical values leads to controlled probability of type I error. So, the use of asymptotic critical values may be avoided, and the use of simulated critical values is highly recommended. It is found and concluded that the simple LM test based on KPSS statistic performs better than rest for all specifications of deterministic part and sample sizes.

Exchange rate nonlinearities in India’s exports to the USA

Exchange rate nonlinearities in India’s exports to the USA

Testing cointegration relationship in a semiparametric varying coefficient model

In this paper, we develop two cointegration tests for two varying coefficient cointegration regression models, respectively. Our test statistics are residual based. We derive the asymptotic distributions of test statistics under the null hypothesis of cointegration and show that they are consistent against the alternative hypotheses. We also propose a wild bootstrap procedure companioned with the continuous moving block bootstrap method proposed in Paparoditis and Politis (2001) and Phillips (2010) to rectify severe distortions found in simulations when the sample size is small. We apply the proposed test statistic to examine the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis between the US and Canada. In contrast to the existing results from linear cointegration tests, our varying coefficient cointegration test does not reject that PPP holds between the US and Canada.

Cointegration with Structural Breaks: An Application to the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle

This paper revisits the well known Feldstein-Horioka saving-investment correlation puzzle from a time series perspective using a sample of 21 OECD countries. We argue that the strong positive correlation between saving and investment as originally identified by Feldstein and Horioka (1980) arises due to the neglect of the nonstationary properties of the variables as well as the failure to account for potential instabilities in the long run relationship between them. Our methodology is based on instability tests recently proposed in Kejriwal and Perron (2006a) as well as the cointegration test in Arai and Kurozumi (2005) extended to allow for multiple breaks under the null hypothesis of cointegration. Our empirical results show that for all countries except Mexico and the U.K., the cointegrating relationship has changed over time; in most cases, the change being towards a lower saving-investment correlation regime. This is perfectly consistent with the recent evidence on international diversification and integration of world capital markets. Finally, we find that while the saving-investment link bears a close relationship with the degree of openness of the country, there seems to be very little evidence in favour of the commonly held view that the correlation varies with the size of the country.

Une synthèse des tests de cointégration sur données de panel

This paper offers an overview of panel-data cointegration tests. We present the main tests based on the null hypothesis of no cointegration (Pedroni, Kao, Bai and Ng test ; Groen and Kleibergen test ) and the McCoskey and Kao test based on the null hypothesis of cointegration. We also discuss issues relating to the comparison of test size and power, inference, and the estimation of cointegrated systems.

Optimal Residual-Based Tests for Fractional Cointegration and Exchange Rate Dynamics

A Lagrange multiplier test of the null hypothesis of cointegration in fractionally cointegrated models is proposed. The test statistic uses fully modified residuals to cancel the endogeneity and serial correlation biases, and standard asymptotic properties apply under the null and under local alternatives. With iid Gaussian errors, the asymptotic Gaussian power envelope of all (unbiased) tests is achieved by the one-sided (two-sided) test. The finite-sample properties are illustrated by a Monte Carlo study. In an application to the dynamics among exchange rates for seven major currencies against the U.S. dollar, mixed evidence of the existence of a cointegrating relation is found.

Stable cointegrating regressions: Fully-modified estimates for inflation and employment cost indices

This paper investigates the stability of relationships between inflation and changes in employer cost for labor using tests based on the null hypothesis of no cointegration (Gregory and Hansen (1996a)) as well as tests based on the null hypothesis of cointegration (Hansen (1992)). In addition to specifications which include wages or unit labor cost, employment cost indices for compensation and wages are used to eliminate composition bias over the business cycle. Empirical results support stability and fully-modified estimates are obtained using the semiparametric approach of Phillips (1995). In contrast to studies which have found only one-way causality, this paper presents empirical evidence of feedback between inflation and employer cost for labor, consistent with an expectations-adjusted Phillips's Curve.

Money and prices : some evidence from India

The objective of this paper is to examine the long-run relationship between supply of money and prices. The prices considered are wholesale price and consumer price indices for industrial workers, urban non-manual workers and agricultural labourers. Using the null hypothesis of cointegration, it is shown that the supply of money and consumer price indices for urban non-manual workers and agricultural labourers are cointegrated in the long-run. Both the prices - namely, urban non-manual workers and agricultural labourers - form a stable relationship with money supply in the long-run.

The long-run relationship between the real exchange rate and terms of trade in OECD countries

Using the null hypothesis of cointegration, it is shown that the real exchange rate and the terms of trade of the seven major OECD countries are cointegrated in the long run. Our results also confirm the Granger proposition that there is Granger causality in at least one direction when two variables are I(1) and cointegrated. We find that exchange rate changes Granger-cause changes in the terms of trade for five out of the seven OECD countries, while the causation runs in the opposite direction for the remaining two countries.

Extended critical values for a simple test of cointegration

Leybourne and McCabe have extended the Kwiatkowski et al. stationarity test to examine the null hypothesis of cointegration. The purpose of this note is to provide an extended set of critical values for use in applied research.

Point Optimal Tests for Testing the Order of Differencing in ARIMA Models

Deciding the order of differencing is an important part in the specification of an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) mode. In most, though not all, cases this means deciding whether to use the original observations or their first differences. Common test procedures used in this context are some variants of autoregressive unit root tests. In these tests, one tests the null hypothesis that the order of differencing is one against the alternative that it is zero. The null hypothesis thus states that the original series is nonstationary and integrated of order one, whereas the alternative assumes that it is stationary. In this paper the situation is reversed so that our null hypothesis states that the original series is stationary, whereas the alternative states that it is integrated of order one. In our approach the use of a differenced series thus means overdifferencing and, consequently, a model with a moving average unit root. Testing for this moving average unit root is the topic of this paper. As discussed by Saikkonen and Luukkonen [26] and Tanaka [31], test procedures obtained for this null hypothesis can also be used to test the null hypothesis that a multivariate time series is cointegrated with a given theoretical cointegrating vector. Since the null hypothesis of cointegration is often of interest and cannot be naturally tested by autoregressive unit root tests, this connection provides an important motivation for the test procedures of this paper.

Testing Purchasing Power Parity under the Null Hypothesis of Co-Integration

Journal Article Testing Purchasing Power Parity under the Null Hypothesis of Co-Integration Get access Eric O'N. Fisher, Eric O'N. Fisher Cornell University Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Joon Y. Park Joon Y. Park University of Toronto Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Economic Journal, Volume 101, Issue 409, 1 November 1991, Pages 1476–1484, https://doi.org/10.2307/2234897 Published: 01 November 1991